12-12 End of Day: Flash Sales Offer No Support; Grains Close the Week Under Pressure
Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Spillover pressure from sharply lower soybean futures drove corn futures lower into the week’s close, and a USDA flash export sale announced this morning provided little meaningful support.
- 🌱 Soybeans: A third consecutive day of USDA-reported flash sales failed to provide any support, and soybean futures ended the week under heavy pressure. Double-digit losses drove the market to new lows for the current move.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat came under pressure from weakness in corn and, more notably, soybean futures. With no fresh supportive catalysts and ample global supplies, the market found little relief.
- The USDA announced that farmers who qualify for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program can expect payments to be released by February 28, 2026.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 470 against March 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March 2026 futures close above 475 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 457.875.
- Changes:
- A Plan A call target has been added.
- Notes:
- Key resistance for the macro trend sits at 475 vs March 2026. A close above 475 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 487 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- The Plan B call target has been raised from 483 to 487.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 487 vs December 2026. A close above 487 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- It was a difficult day in the grain markets as selling pressure continued, pushing corn futures lower to close out the week. March corn fell to its lowest level of the month, losing 5 ¾ cents to 440 ¾, while May futures declined 5 ¼ cents to 449.
- December corn futures ended its trading life today, finishing 3 ¾ cents lower to 431 ½ as the contract expired this afternoon. Contract exportation can trigger some additional volatility in the market and may have been an influence on the weakness today.
- Corn usage for ethanol has been running at a strong pace. The USDA announced that corn usage for ethanol in October totaled 476.4 mb, up 9% over last year.
- In the second consecutive session, USDA announced a flash export sale of corn. On Friday morning, it was announced that unknown destinations purchased 250,000 MT (9.8 mb) of corn for the current marketing year, following Thursday’s 7.3 mb sale to unknown buyers.
- Crude oil prices are trending lower as EIA projects supply to outpace demand in 2026, with a potential surplus of up to 3.8 million barrels per day. Weaker energy prices could weigh on ethanol producer margins.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1200 against January 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 1067.50.
- Changes:
- The Plan A target has been lowered to 1200 from 1210.
- Notes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1265 against November 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Sell a portion of your crop if November 2026 futures break below 1045.
- Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation has been made so far to date.
- Changes:
- The Plan A target has been lowered to 1265 from 1266.
- Notes:
- Key support for November 2026 futures is at 1045 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed sharply lower and are moving closer to completing a head-and-shoulders formation and filling the open gap down to $10.765 in the March contract. January soybeans were down 16-3/4 cents to $10.76-3/4 while March was down 16 cents to $10.86-3/4. January soybean meal was up $0.40 to $302.60, and January soybean oil was down 0.75 cents to 50.07 cents.
- China’s Sinograin has scheduled a second soybean auction of 500,000 mt next week, likely to clear space for recent U.S. purchases. Even so, abundant global supply and a bearish technical structure continue to weigh on U.S. futures.
- USDA reported flash soybean sales for the third consecutive day. Today’s announcements included 132,000 mt of soybeans to China for 25/26 and 104,328 mt of soybean cake and meal to Mexico, with 93,895 mt slated for 25/26 delivery and 10,433 mt for 26/27.
- In Brazil, roughly 90 percent of the soybean crop is believed to be planted, and the growing season is off to a strong start. More consistent rainfall is expected to continue through December, supporting early crop development.
- For the week, January soybeans lost 28-1/2 cents while March lost 29-1/4 cents. March soybeans are now just 11 cents away from filling their October gap at $10.76. January soybean meal lost $4.90, and January soybean oil lost 1.62 cents.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat was pulled lower by corn and primarily soybean futures today. A lack of fresh friendly news and ample global supplies also offer no support to the market. March Chicago lost 4-1/4 cents to 529-1/4, Kansas City was down 4-1/4 at 518, and MIAX slipped 1/2 cent to 575-3/4.
- Russia has reportedly kept their export tax on wheat at 0%. Other feed grains including corn were also kept at 0%. This will keep global competition stiff, but on the bright side, U.S. wheat export commitments are running 24% above last year as of November 13 (the most recent available data).
- The Chinese Statistics Bureau has indicated that their nation’s total 2025 grain production was up 1.2% year over year to 714.9 mmt. Of that total, they kept the 2025 wheat harvest estimate steady at 140.1 mmt, which is also in line with the USDA’s forecast.
- The Ukrainian economy ministry stated that their nation has harvested 55.5 mmt of grain as of December 11 on about 92% of the planted area. Total 2025 grain production is expected to reach 60 mmt versus 56 mmt last year. So far, just under 23 mmt of wheat has been collected.
- The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) has slightly reduced their projection of the region’s 25/26 wheat production by 50,000 mt to 13.0 mmt. Barley and canola production estimates were also trimmed. Despite the reduction, if realized, their 13 mmt figure would still exceed the five-year average of 11.2 mmt. Nationally, the Australian government is looking for a total wheat crop of 35.6 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 591.25 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March closes above 594 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 631.25.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 563 to make the next cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March closes over 590.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 596.75.
- Changes:
- The market has rallied back within the targeted price zone of the previous sale recommendation. If you were unable to make the previous sale, the sale opportunity has reactivated.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 against March ‘26. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if March KC closes over 590.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs December 2025. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
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