Corn is trading lower again this morning following yesterday’s Chinese import cancellation of US corn. This is the third cancellation and there are fears more will come.
On Friday the USDA will release their WASDE report with estimates for the US 23/24 corn carryout at 2,094, the Brazilian corn crop at 126 mmt, and Argentina at 35 mmt. The estimates for Brazil were higher than the previous month while estimates for Argentina are lower.
There have still been no deliveries for the May corn contract and it is now 8 days into the delivery period.
Between the planting progress which is ahead of schedule, increased Brazilian production, and the sales cancellation, the market is under pressure.
Soybeans are trading lower again this morning along with soybean meal and oil. Crude oil is lower as well, sitting just under 73 dollars a barrel.
Trade estimates for the US 23/24 carryout in Friday’s WASDE is 293, a higher guess than last month. The Brazilian soybean crop is now estimated at 155 mmt vs the previous 154 mmt, and Argentina is expected to produce 24 mmt vs 27 mmt.
Lower Chinese demand is concerning, but the USDA is expected to keep Chinese imports near 96 mmt but could see more exports from Brazil.
Yesterday, managed money were net sellers of 8,000 contracts of soybeans, bringing their net long position down to just 53,000.
Wheat is lower again, but KC wheat and Minn have been holding up better than Chicago due to the poor crop conditions and slow spring wheat planting pace.
Outbound inspections have resumed under the Black Sea grain deal, but the deal has still not been renewed and Russia’s terms to continue the agreement are lofty.
Yesterday, managed money were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, adding to their net short position and bringing it to 113,000 contracts.
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are high, and the Ukrainian nuclear power plant is under threat of nuclear accident again due to the fighting.
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