Corn is trading higher this morning as funds who were previously exiting commodities may now see the oversold technicals as a buying opportunity.
Brazilian corn exports are now seen at 166,552 tons in April vs 186,552 estimated tons. Brazil still has corn to sell but may begin running low.
China plans to grow 88% of their own grain by 2032 which will mainly effect corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice.
Below normal temperatures in the Midwest have caused some early morning freezes the past few days which could damage emerging corn.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher while both soybean meal and oil are lower. The fundamental picture is not friendly short term with Brazil’s harvest, so today’s bounce is likely technical with soybeans oversold.
Traders will continue to watch the Brazilian export values vs those of the US, and as long as Brazil remains so much cheaper it will be difficult for futures to gain momentum.
As US exports lag, Brazilian soy exports are seen reaching 14.1 million tons in April vs the 15.15 million tons expected in previous estimates.
Chicago and KC wheat are trading slightly higher while Minn is a bit lower. Not much has changed in the fundamental picture, but the grain complex has a friendlier feel today with the sharp decline in the US dollar.
Poland has signaled that they will not lift the Ukrainian import ban in June. The ban came after the influx of Ukrainian grains drove down local prices in Poland, hurting their producers.
Canadian wheat farmers have asked their country to step in to end the strike in the country. The public sector started a massive strike which is threatening shipments of grain.
On Monday, the International Grains Council estimated that world wheat production will drop from 803 mmt in 22/23 to 787 mmt in 23/24, and will be short of demand by 7 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
