Midday Update: July 3, 2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Tuesday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn began higher in the overnight but has faded and is now relatively unchanged. Friday’s USDA report was bearish for corn after planted acres were forecast to be higher.
• Very beneficial rains fell over some of the driest areas of the Corn Belt this weekend, but there was also some hail and rain damage in some fields.
• Last week’s acreage number came in 2.1 million acres higher than in March which pressured futures, but the June 1 stocks number was lower than expected and down 155 mb from pre report estimates.
• This afternoon’s Crop Progress report will let traders know whether or not the recent rains were enough to help the crop turn around. Good to excellent ratings will likely increase.

• Soybeans are still riding the high from Friday’s very bullish USDA report but have faded slightly from overnight highs which hit the highest prices since February 24.
• Friday’s NASS stocks and seeding report showed that soybean stocks were 16 mb below estimates and 172 mb below a year ago, but the huge bullish news was soybean acres falling 4 million below March intentions.
• Soy products in China followed the lead of US markets and moved higher with soybean oil on the Dalian exchange rising 6%.
• World veg oils have been moving significantly higher with Malaysian palm oil futures up 5.2% which is the highest level since March. US soybean oil futures are at their highest levels since December of last year.

• Wheat has bounced around today, opening lower but now trading significantly higher in the KC wheat contract, while Chicago is a bit higher and Minn. wheat lower.
• Friday’s USDA report showed wheat stocks to be lower than expected at 580 mb, 31 mb lower than expectations and what would be the lowest in 16 years.
• The EU is weighing concessions to a Russian bank over the Black Sea grain deal in hopes that Russia will agree to extend the deal.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a big chunk of their short position. They bought back 31,966 contracts, reducing their net short position to 52,168 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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