Corn is trading slightly lower today but rebounded slightly after hitting its recent low of 4.81 in December and was unable to take that level out.
Friday’s USDA report estimated corn yield 2.4 bpa lower than the previous guess and is now expecting the national yield at 175.1 bpa.
While the USDA’s drop in yield estimates was friendly, they also lowered US corn exports which put ending stocks over 2.0 bb, so the overall report reaction was bearish.
Rains fell throughout the Northern Plains and northern Midwest over the weekend, but the forecast is now showing a drier trend for the rest of August and maybe even into September.
Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal and oil on the heels of Friday’s WASDE report which showed a very tight ending stocks number.
Soybeans are also getting support from a flash sale reported by private exporters this morning to unknown destinations of 416,000 mt of soybeans.
India, who is the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils, reportedly imported 59% more palm oil in June but their imports of soybean oil fell by 22%.
On Friday, the USDA estimated new crop ending stocks at 245 mb, a decline of 55 mb. Yields were also lowered by 1.1 bpa from July, but recent rains may have given yield numbers a boost.
Wheat is trading lower around midday despite tension further escalating between Russia and Ukraine. Friday’s report showed US winter wheat yields improving which may be adding pressure.
Over the weekend, Russia fired warning shots at a civilian vessel in the Black Sea and sent more drones to the port of Odesa. Russia has said that they would retaliate for the attacks on the Crimean bridge.
Russian FOB wheat offers have risen by $21 per metric ton over the past few weeks, and although they maintain the competitive advantage, US prices are becoming more competitive.
The WASDE report showed US ending stocks rising by 23 mb due to declines in demand, but other countries may see their ending stocks falling due to lower production. Argentina, Canada, India, and Australia are all having weather difficulties.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
