Grain Market Insider: September 29, 2023
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’23 | 476.75 | -11.75 |
| MAR ’24 | 491.75 | -11.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 507.25 | -7.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’23 | 1275 | -25.5 |
| JAN ’24 | 1294.5 | -24.75 |
| NOV ’24 | 1260 | -9.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’23 | 541.5 | -37.25 |
| MAR ’24 | 573.5 | -33 |
| JUL ’24 | 612.25 | -24 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’23 | 663.75 | -21.25 |
| MAR ’24 | 672.25 | -20.75 |
| JUL ’24 | 680.5 | -13.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’23 | 747 | -3.75 |
| MAR ’24 | 766.25 | -2.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 789.5 | 7 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’23 | 4333.5 | 20 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| NOV ’23 | 91.7 | -1.98 |
| Gold | ||
| DEC ’23 | 1882.5 | -8.4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Despite a flash sale of corn to Mexico and lower than anticipated September 1 stocks, sharp selloffs in the wheat and soybean complexes weighed on corn prices following today’s USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report.
- September 1 soybean stocks came in above expectations, and above the USDA’s current 22/23 ending stocks number of 250 mb. The bearish report and heavy technical selling in both soybean meal and oil pressed November soybeans to 3-month lows.
- Instead of an anticipated 5 mb reduction in U.S. wheat production, traders got a 78 mb increase in today’s USDA report. The news pressed the wheat complex between 3 – 6% lower with fresh 2-year lows in Chicago and Minneapolis, and prices not seen since July ’21 for K.C.
- To see the current U.S. 7 day precipitation forecast, and the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures came under heavy selling pressure as selling in the wheat and soybean market weighed on futures, and the prospects of a proposed government shutdown on Sunday triggered risk off trade across the markets. December corn lost 11 ¾ cents on the day but was down only ½ cent on the week.
- September 1 corn stocks in the USDA Grain Stocks report were less than expected at 1.361 billion bushels, which was below market expectations and last year’s levels. Though the numbers were friendly to expectations, the corn supply is still large, and a surprise increase in the wheat harvest forecast pressured corn prices.
- U.S. corn demand saw a little energy as the USDA announced a flash sale totaling 223,540 mt (8.8 mb) of corn to Mexico for the current crop year.
- Harvest pressure continues to grow, and the increase in harvest bushels has weighed on basis levels and the cash market. Last week the crop was 15% harvested and should increase this week.
- Corn futures look soft technically with the weak close on Friday. Additional price follow-through could take place to start next week, and prices may be poised to retest or establish a new low.
Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 495 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.
Total grain stocks (blue bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.
- No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day sharply lower to end the week, and month, following a bearish quarterly Grain Stocks report. For the week, November soybeans lost 21-1/4 cents, and for the month, they lost 93-3/4 cents. Non-commercial traders have been unloading their net long positions over the past few weeks, with more selling today.
- In today’s report, old crop soybean stocks as of September 1, totaled 268 mb. While higher than the 242 mb that trade was looking for, it is still very tight, and 2% below this time last year. Soybean production for 2022 was also revised down by 5.93 mb from the previous estimate.
- For 2022, planted area was unchanged at 87.5 million acres but harvested area was revised to 86.2 million acres. The yield for 2022 was also revised to 49.6 bpa, up 0.1 bushel from the previous estimate. Overall, the report had a negative reaction with an increase in ending stocks but a decrease in production.
- The U.S. soybean harvest should pick up speed in the coming days with little rain expected over the next week. Drought conditions are still prevalent in the Midwest, and heavy rains would be needed to improve soil moisture levels.
Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have been in a downtrend and are showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices do reverse higher. Above the market, initial resistance lies between 1317 – 1323, with further resistance near 1368. To the downside, support remains near the May 31 low of 1270.
Total grain stocks (black bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- All three U.S. wheats had double digit losses across the board after a negative reaction to today’s reports. September 1 wheat stocks came in at 1.780 bb versus 1.774 bb expected and 1.778 last year. Additionally, U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 1.812 bb versus an expected 1.731 bb, and last year’s 1.650 bb.
- Despite negative data today, there is still a silver lining for wheat bulls with weather problems that may affect global production. There is talk of Australia’s crop being lowered to 23-25 mmt, and also lower EU crops. In addition, Argentina’s wheat crop ratings are up from last year’s 14% good to excellent, but still a dismal 22% GTE.
- The drop in prices today might make U.S. wheat more competitive on the world market, but Russian exports are still a concern. After Egypt purchased wheat from Romania and Bulgaria, it was said that Russia is now offering wheat for export around $245-$250 per mt.
- The potential for a government shutdown may also be weighing on commodities as money flows out of the market. In addition to wheat, many commodities including corn, the soybean complex, and livestock, all posted losses. And as of writing crude oil is also down nearly a dollar per barrel.
- According to the USDA, as of September 26, approximately 47% of the winter wheat production area is still in drought, while 51% of the spring wheat production area is in drought.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 470.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside, and Sept. 29 push lower has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.
Total grain stocks (black bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.
Other Charts / Weather
