All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23	480	-4
MAR ’24	494.5	-3.5
DEC ’24	510.75	-3

Soybeans
NOV ’23	1288.25	-7
JAN ’24	1308.5	-6
NOV ’24	1259.75	-2.5

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23	568.5	-12
MAR ’24	596.25	-11.25
JUL ’24	629	-8.5

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23	649	-14
MAR ’24	659.5	-12.25
JUL ’24	671.25	-10.5

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23	720.75	-7.5
MAR ’24	739.75	-7.5
SEP ’24	771	-3.75

S&P 500
DEC ’23	4206	-65.25

Crude Oil
DEC ’23	85.37	1.63

Gold
DEC ’23	1992.7	6.6

Grain Market Highlights

Solid ethanol production numbers didn’t keep the corn market from closing lower for the fourth session in a row. A general lack of bullish news, harvest pressure and continued technical selling pressured the market.
Weakness in soybean meal weighed heavily on soybeans, which traded higher in the overnight, but plummeted in the first 30 min. of trading, despite a 126k mt sale to China, before recovering to close within 2 cents of this morning’s opening price.
Soybean meal traded lower as traders booked profits and unwinding long meal, short oil positions following beneficial rains that fell in Argentina. Meanwhile, soybean oil traded sharply higher, supported from the same spread action and higher crude and palm oil.
Led by the KC contracts, all three wheat classes closed in negative territory following overnight gains as weakness prevails in the export market. Beneficial rains in Argentina, and lower prices in neighboring corn and soybeans also contributed to the pall in the wheat market.
To see the current US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the South American GRACE-Based Soil Moisture Drought Indicators courtesy of NASA and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. On October 19, December corn closed above 500 for the first time since the end of July. While the market was unable to follow through to the upside, the overall trend remains positive with successively higher lows, from mid-August. If the market can maintain a close above 500 and the 100-day moving average, it may aim to test resistance near 547. Otherwise, if the market closes below the 50-day moving average near 485, it may run the risk of continuing to trend sideways to lower, with a worst-case scenario being a sideways to lower trend into late November, or even early January. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now, Dec ’24 holds about a 30 cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has held the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The weak price action of the last couple trading sessions continued to pressure the corn market on Wednesday. Harvest pressure and lack of overall news has kept the path lower this week. December corn lost 4 cents on the session and had traded lower four consecutive sessions.
Ethanol production last week rose to 1.04 million barrels/day, up slightly from last week. Ethanol stocks remain tight at 21.4 million barrels. Ethanol producers used 100.6 MB of corn last week and are up to 702 MB for the marketing year. This pace is currently trending up 20 mb (3%) over last year.
The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. While soybean sales have improved, corn sales are still lacking. Last week, corn export sales were at 881,000 mt for the 23/24 marketing year.
A strong Midwestern storm will be working its way across the Corn Belt over the next few days. Rainfall with good coverage and a sharp drop in temperature is forecasted into the start of November. Wetter than normal forecasts may limit harvest progress through the end of the week in some areas.
South American weather will likely stay dry and hot for areas of Brazil, and areas of Argentina are seeing signs of last year’s drought persist. While South American weather is still in its early stages, the corn market is lacking any true weather premium.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with only minor short covering moving the market higher until recently. With the market trading up to 509 ½ and failing, the next resistance level now sits at that recent high, with further resistance near the July 31 high of 516 ¼. If the market retreats, the next major support level remains near 460.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans have been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256 ¾ in the Nov ’23 contract, and since the beginning of October, they have also traded largely between 1260 and 1280. The close over 1287 ¼ on October 12 could be a signal that a harvest/fall low is in. In the big picture, since May 2023, Nov ’23 has traded in a range from 1251 on the downside to 1435 on the topside. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.
No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop for nearly its entire contract life and that discount extended out to 142 versus the Jan ’24 contract in late July, with it recently trading between 17 ¾ and 66 cents. Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has mostly traded between 1250 and 1320 and is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower pressured by lower soybean meal, but prices did rebound from lows earlier this morning. Soybean oil was higher thanks to support from gains in crude oil, as well as higher world vegetable oils.
Following Monday’s impressive export inspections for soybeans, another flash sale was reported today of 126,000 metric tons of beans to China for the 2023/2024 marketing year. The recent increases in purchases by China from the US, along with yesterday’s purchasing agreements that were signed by China, have been supportive.
South America is continuing to plant soybeans despite the hot and dry conditions in both Argentina and central and northern Brazil, while southern Brazil remains far too wet. Although the 10-day forecast features more of the same weather pattern, the Rosario Board of Trade acknowledged that this past weekend’s rains helped to alleviate a lot of concern with Argentina’s soybean planting season.
Soybeans got support from purchasing agreements that were signed yesterday between Chinese agricultural companies and US commodity exporters at a ceremony held in Des Moines and organized by the US Soybean Export Council. 11 different agreements were made, and now the trade will look to see when these purchases will be announced by the USDA.

Above: In the middle of October, the market pierced the upper end of the 1285 – 1323 resistance area and tested the 50-day moving average, before retreating lower. If the market can maintain a close above resistance at 1334, it would be poised to make a run to test 1370. Otherwise, initial support to the downside may be found near 1300 and again near 1273. Key support for the move remains down near 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

A lack of fresh news and pressure from lower corn and soybeans kept wheat on the defensive today. Additionally, Russia remains the world’s cheapest origin for wheat, and the lack of demand is keeping pressure on US exports.
While the war rages on in the Black Sea, though it is viewed by many as old news, especially given the developments in the Middle East, Ukraine continues to try to export grain in any way they can, and reportedly their 23/24 exports have reached 8.56 mmt to date. However, that is still down significantly from 12.4 mmt at this time last year.
Rumors of Chinese interest in US SRW wheat continue to circulate, but so far there has been no confirmation. There have also not been any flash sales in excess of 100,000 mt, which are reportable on a daily basis. Traders will be watching upcoming export data to see if China has been buying “under the radar”.
Adding to pressure in the wheat market are the recent rains in some of the drier areas of South America. Particularly, Argentina received some good moisture in some of the driest areas, and while drought still persists overall, this could be enough to help yields, with some analysts already beginning to increase their production estimates.
According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of October 22nd have reached 9.33 mmt since the season began on July 1st. That represents a 22% decline from 12 mmt for the same time frame last year.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Since making a mid-summer high in late July, the Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend, but after finding support at 540 on September 29, the market has steadily rallied, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. With weak US export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720, and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. The July ’24 contract has been trading at a premium to the Dec ’23 contract since late April, which has steadily increased to about 55 cents, September 29, it traded as far out as 71 ¾ cents. Fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven Dec ’23 closer to the mid to upper 500 range, and July ’24 to the low to mid 600’s. The market risk for July ’24 remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On October 20, the December contract posted a bearish reversal after making a new recent high of 604 ½. The market has retreated and solidified resistance above the market that now stands between 604 ½ and 618. Without bullish input, the market is likely to trend sideways to lower with the next major support level between 547 and 540.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. With prices falling below the Oct. 12 low of 655 ¼, the Dec ’23 contract continues to search for support as it resumes the downtrend that has been in place since late July. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices towards 750, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading near a 25-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract, up from a 60-cent discount last July, as bear spreading due to weak fundamentals has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to its contract lows, while the July ’24 contract remains more elevated as it tests Feb ’22 lows. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following K.C. recommendations:

Above: Since the end of September, KC wheat has been consolidating and recently broke through the bottom of the range at 655. The market is now poised to test minor support near 630, with the next level of major support remaining near 575. Resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while showing signs of being oversold. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 800, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a nearly 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last June. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: For much of September, December Minneapolis wheat was rangebound, and the breakout to the downside on September 29 set the market up to test support near 665, the May ’21 low. Since then, the market has been consolidating upward, with initial support between 711 and 708. If prices continue higher, initial resistance remains between 745 – 760.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather