Grain Market Insider: October 18, 2023
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’23 | 492 | 3 |
| MAR ’24 | 506.5 | 2.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 518.25 | 1.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’23 | 1311 | 14.25 |
| JAN ’24 | 1329.25 | 13 |
| NOV ’24 | 1266.5 | 6 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’23 | 580.25 | 9.75 |
| MAR ’24 | 608 | 9.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 638.5 | 7.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’23 | 670.5 | 3.75 |
| MAR ’24 | 679 | 3.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 687.25 | 2.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’23 | 733.5 | 5.75 |
| MAR ’24 | 754.75 | 5 |
| SEP ’24 | 783 | 3 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’23 | 4352.25 | -49.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| DEC ’23 | 87.35 | 1.91 |
| Gold | ||
| DEC ’23 | 1963.9 | 28.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Double digit gains in soybeans and a 5-year high in weekly ethanol production more than offset any harvest pressure that came into the corn market, as December corn held onto modest gains following choppy trade.
- Follow through buying from yesterday’s rally faded and then surged into the close as sharply higher soybean meal and another flash sale to China supported the soybean market to end the day with double-digit gains.
- Soybean meal continues to be supported by demand, driven by the dry Argentine weather and additional technical buying above the 400 support level. Soybean oil, on the other hand, closed lower on the day after failing to trade through the 20-day moving average for the third day in a row.
- Rising tensions in the Middle East and production concerns in the southern hemisphere led the wheat complex to close higher on the day in all three wheat classes.
- To see the current U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 2 week precipitation forecast for South America from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Cash
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Puts
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The supportive USDA Supply and Demand report from October 12 had Dec ’23 corn testing that 500 psychological price level, yet so far Dec ’23 has been unable to close above it. That 500 level remains an important resistance area for the trend, and without a close over it, the market remains at risk of continuing to trend sideways to lower, and worst-case scenarios could entail sideways-to-lower trends into the late November to early January window. If Dec ’23 can close above 500, it may aim to test the next resistance near 547. Otherwise, the first support on the downside is the August low of 461. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now, Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place, helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- A buying tone in the grain markets helped lift the corn market higher on the day. Even as harvest pressure limited gains, December corn futures gained 3 cents on the session.
- The soybean market and soybean meal led the grain markets higher, as some weather concerns are adding weather premium into prices. Key northern and central areas of Brazil are experiencing hot and dry weather, which is slowing the soybean planting pace. A slow soybean planting pace narrows the window for the second crop of Brazil corn, which could tighten longer-term global supplies.
- Weekly ethanol production rose to a 5-year high last week at 1.035 million barrels/day; this was slightly higher than the previous week’s total. Ethanol stocks slipped to a 9-year low at 21.1 million barrels for the week ending October 13. Ethanol producers used 100.1 mb of corn last week as the yearly pace is 3.9% ahead of last year’s levels.
- US weather is supporting harvest pace in some regions, but longer-term forecasts may add concern for the corn market in the northern Corn Belt. A potential series of storms going into the end of October could limit the harvest pace and possibly damage the mature crop.
- The USDA will release the export sales report on Thursday morning. Expectations are for the 23/24 marketing year sales to range from 500,000-1,100,000 mt as corn export demand has improved with freshly harvested supplies.
Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains between 490 – 516, with initial support between 475 – 480 and then near 460.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Cash
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Puts
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans have been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256 ¾, and since the beginning of October, they have also traded largely between 1260 and 1280. The close over 1287 ¼ on October 12 could be a signal that a harvest/fall low is in. In the big picture since May 2023, Nov ’23 has traded in a range from 1256 ¾ on the downside to 1435 on the topside. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.
- No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately to around the 10-20 cent range. Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- After trading on both sides of unchanged, soybeans surged higher to close out the day 14 ¼ cents in the green. This is the first close above 1300 since the end of September, as dryness continues in Argentina and the northern and central parts of Brazil.
- Soybean meal traded sharply higher, gaining 14 dollars in the December, as technical buying ensued once the 400 level held after being tested midday. Soybean oil was the weak link of the complex that failed to successfully trade through its 20-day moving average, which brought out selling and profit taking from last week’s rally.
- Northern and central Brazil are expected to remain dry for the rest of October, while southernmost region continues to be wet. Argentina, the world’s largest soybean meal exporter, is expected to see some much needed rain in the next two weeks, but the totals aren’t expected to break the current dryness.
- This morning the USDA reported a flash sale to China for the 23/24 marketing year totaling 132,000 mt.
- Abiove came out with its first estimate for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop and put it at a record 164.7 mmt, 7 mmt higher than the 22/23 crop. The group also estimated that Brazil would crush 54 mt and export 100 mt of soybeans in 2024.
- Despite the robust harvest pace, basis levels have been seen rising at river terminals and processors due to slow farmer selling. Strong demand from crushers to maintain their vigorous processing pace and rising river levels on some regional rivers have helped to underpin basis.
Above: Front month soybeans have pierced the upper end of the 1285 – 1323 resistance area and are testing close in resistance at the 50-day moving average. If the market can maintain upward momentum, it would be poised to make a run to test mid-September prices around 1370. Otherwise, to the downside initial support may be found near 1300 and again near 1273. Key support for the move remains down near 1250.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- More war premium is being factored into the grain markets, especially wheat, as the tensions rise in the Middle East. President Biden is in Israel to meet with foreign leaders, but following an attack on a hospital in Gaza, his meetings were cancelled.
- So far in Australia, wheat yields are coming in a little better than what the USDA was estimating despite their drought issues. However, the impact may be minimal, with many analysts still looking for a decline in production of 40% or more. Argentina is also facing the implications of drought that may curb their production. They are expected to get some showers soon, but it will not be enough to reverse the current dry pattern.
- Paris milling wheat futures closed higher for the fourth time in the past five sessions, with the front month December gaining 4.5 Euros to 240.50 per mt. This may indicate that they are finally breaking out of the sideways pattern, which should also lend support to the US market. Both US and French wheat are on an even playing field, in terms of export price for Nov – Jan, and there are rumors that China may be looking to purchase more US wheat. This is supported by the fact that China’s wheat imports this year so far are at 10.2 mmt, which is up 54% from last year.
- Wheat harvest in southern Brazil, including the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, has begun to ramp up. However, the southern regions have received too much rain, which has led to quality and disease concerns. According to CONAB, they are looking for Brazilian wheat output at 10.46 mmt. That is down 3.3% from the September projection, as well as down 0.9% from last year.
- According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, this year’s grain production may be a record due to rainfall received in the north. Additionally, China’s GDP data came out 0.5% better than expected at 4.9%. This may indicate that their economic situation is improving and that they will import more commodities – this may be in part why US grains rallied today. Conversely, there was also news that China approved new GMO corn and soybean seeds in an effort to become more self-sufficient, which may mean fewer imports in the future.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Cash
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Puts
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July but has found support near 541 following the September 29 Production report and has since been rangebound between 541 and 581 ½. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the current trading range. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices over 616, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into the winter months. If you are a newer subscriber, Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720, and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 600 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at a 68-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract as bear spreading, due to fund positioning and weak fundamentals, has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to 550, while the July ’24 contract remains near 625. The risk for the July ’24 contract remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: After its push lower on Sept. 29, December wheat has slowly regained its value and is trading in the same 570 – 618 range it did prior to its break lower. For the market to push through the top side of the range, more bullish input will be needed. If so, the market would be poised to test the 645 – 664 area. If not and the market retreats, initial support could be found near 568 and then down between 547 and 540.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Cash
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Puts
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C. wheat crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while trading about 40 cents off the contract lows from July ’21. With weak U.S. export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 750 it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation in the late May rally around 1170. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales north of 700, and again around 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at an 18-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract, up from a 60-cent discount last July, as bear spreading due to weak fundamentals has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to its contract lows, while the July ’24 contract remains more elevated as it tests Feb ’22 lows. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode, and in mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility. Also, back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 K.C. Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following K.C. recommendations:
Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating with initial support just below the market near the September 12 low of 655. If the market retreats lower and breaks through 655, the next levels of support come in around 630 and 575. Initial resistance to the upside may be found around 700 and again near 722.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Cash
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Puts
2023
No Action
2024
No Action
2025
No Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while showing signs of being oversold. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 800, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a nearly 60-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains nearly 30 cents off its low from last June. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July K.C. 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: For much of September, December Minneapolis wheat was rangebound, and the breakout to the downside on September 29 set the market up to test support near 665, the May ’21 low. Since then, the market has been consolidating upward, with initial support between 711 and 708. If prices continue higher, initial resistance remains between 745 – 760.
Other Charts / Weather
US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Brazil 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.
Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.