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8-06 Opening Update: Muted Overnight Session as Soybeans Slightly Higher, Corn Lower, Wheat Flat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 380.5 -1
DEC ’25 401.5 -0.5
DEC ’26 443.5 -1.5

Soybeans

NOV ’25 994.25 3.5
JAN ’26 1013 3.75
NOV ’26 1050.25 3

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 508 -0.25
DEC ’25 528.75 0.25
JUL ’26 569.25 0.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 504.75 0.25
DEC ’25 525.5 0.25
JUL ’26 568.25 1

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.7125 0.01
DEC ’25 5.9375 0.0125
SEP ’26 6.46 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6341.5 16.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’25 65.23 1.03

Gold

OCT ’25 3389.5 -18

  • Dalian, Brazil, and Matif corn futures all lower on expectations of higher supply.

  • US domestic basis softens amid potential farmer selling; the Sep-Dec spread at -21 points to ample domestic supply.

  • Warmer, drier Black Sea weather, lower wheat prices boosting feed use, and higher US yield estimates all pressure corn prices ahead of the Aug. 12 USDA report.

  • Soybeans and soymeal fell on negative US/China politics and higher US supply talk, while soyoil and palm oil rose.

  • There were 518 soymeal deliveries (442 commercial), Brazil crushers consider slowing/shutdown amid poor margins; soyoil drops on profit-taking.

  • Origination challenges keep Brazil basis firm; record exports of 31 mmt for Feb-July.  Buyers extend soymeal coverage at near-decade-low prices.

  • Funds expected to roll wheat shorts to Dec as technical and fundamental signals worsen.

  • Improving Australian crop and ample exporter supplies heighten Oct-Mar export competition.

  • US export pace points to approximately 23.1 mmt, just below the strongest level (24 mmt) since 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-5 End of Day: Markets Lean Bearish as Harvest Nears and Ratings Hold Strong

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures hit new lows as strong crop ratings and expectations for a large harvest outweighed supportive demand; technicals remain weak, encouraging sellers.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended lower after early gains faded; November briefly broke above $10.00 before slipping. Crop Progress showed soybean ratings at 69% good-to-excellent, down one point from last week.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board as harvest pressure and steady farmer selling continued to weigh on prices.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.

      • For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures hit new lows as strong crop ratings and expectations for a large harvest outweighed supportive demand; technicals remain weak, encouraging sellers.

  • USDA reported a flash sale of 128,000 MT (5.03 mb) of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26. U.S. corn remains highly competitive, with new crop sales ranking third-best in a decade for this time of year.

  • Corn crop rating remains strong at 73% G/E. Only 2016 was rated higher in the past decade for this time frame. The strong ratings have corn market traders comfortable with the short side of the market given the possible potential yield.

  • The corn market will be looking toward the August WASDE report on August 12 and the potential adjustments in corn yield given the condition of the crop. One private analyst group forecasted the August yield at 188.1 bushels/acre, up 7 bu/acre of trendline yield. More individual private analysts’ estimates will start hitting the news as the report moves closer.

  • Weather forecasts remain most favorable in the near term. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal, but rainfall is expected to also be normal to above normal for the same time period.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • With the move into August and additional price weakness, the 1114 upside sales target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended lower after early gains faded; November briefly broke above $10.00 before slipping. Soybean meal rose, but bean oil followed crude lower.

  • Brazilian soybean farmers are expected to plant 120 million acres in the 25/26 season according to consulting firm Celeres. StoneX anticipates that this will cause production to rise by 5.6% from the previous season to 178.2 mmt. For the 24/25 season, StoneX raised its production forecast to 111.7 mmt.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point from last week to 69% good to excellent, but trade expected this. 58% of the soybean crop is setting pods and 85% is blooming

  • Yesterday’s Export Inspection report saw soybean sales still sluggish but ahead of last week at 613k tons. This compared to 428k last week and 267k a year ago. Poor export demand combined with likely large yields have pressured the market- StoneX has forecast US yields at 53.6 bpa.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets closed lower across the entire complex today as new crop supplies continue to enter the pipeline. Active global harvest pressure and steady farmer selling have weighed on prices. With favorable weather expected to persist through the remainder of the harvest season, fresh supplies are likely to keep flowing into the market in the near term.

  • The U.S. winter wheat harvest is now 86% complete, in line with the five-year average. Progress remains slowest in Montana and South Dakota, where harvest operations are trailing behind other key producing states.

  • Open interest in Chicago wheat jumped over 18,000 contracts Monday despite flat prices, signaling fresh positioning ahead of key supply updates.

  • Wheat export inspections for the week ending July 31 totaled 599,595 metric tons. Cumulative inspections for the marketing year to date have reached 3,911,270 metric tons, up 8.7% from the same period last year. This represents 16.9% of USDA’s 2025/26 export forecast, compared to the five-year average of 15.6% at this point in the season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

From ag-wx.com

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8-5 Midday: Soybeans Lean Lower at Midday, Pressured by Weakness in Corn and Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 382.5 -4.5
DEC ’25 403.25 -3.75
DEC ’26 445.25 -2.75
Soybeans
NOV ’25 993.75 -0.75
JAN ’26 1012.25 -0.75
NOV ’26 1049 -2.25
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 510 -6.75
DEC ’25 530.25 -6.75
JUL ’26 569 -6.75
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 508.5 -8.5
DEC ’25 528.75 -8.75
JUL ’26 571 -8
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.73 0
DEC ’25 5.955 -0.005
SEP ’26 6.4825 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6327.75 -28.25
Crude Oil
OCT ’25 64.47 -0.83
Gold
OCT ’25 3414.9 15.4

  • Corn futures are weaker at midday as increasing yield estimates and favorable weather across the Corn Belt continue to add to the bearish projection in prices.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings unchanged from last week at 73% good-to-excellent but remain 6 points better than last year.

  • AgRural pegs Brazil’s winter corn harvest at 81% complete, up from 68% done last week but down from 95% complete the same week last year.

  • According to a survey conducted by StoneX, the group sees corn yield at 188.1 bpa, which is well above the USDA’s 181 bpa estimate.

  • Soybeans now lean lower at midday as prices get pressured from weakness in the rest of the grain market.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings falling 1 point from last week to 69% good-to-excellent, but is still up 1 point from the same week last year.

  • Celeres has raised their new crop soybean production estimate for Brazil to 177.2 mmt. If realized, this would be up 4.4 mmt from the current season.

  • Minneapolis wheat futures are the strong leg of the wheat complex at midday while KC and Chicago wheat prices are lower. Global wheat harvest is keeping sellers active, pressuring prices.

  • Spring wheat ratings slipped 1 point from the week prior to 48% good-to-excellent and remain well below last year’s rating of 74% good-to-excellent through the same week. Harvest sits at just 5% compared to 9% through the same week last year.

  • The US dollar is falling at midday after hitting a multi-month high late last week, which could help to keep some level of support under the market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-05 Opening Update: Corn Lower, Soybeans Higher Following Crop Progress

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 385.75 -1.25
DEC ’25 405.75 -1.25
DEC ’26 447 -1

Soybeans

NOV ’25 997.75 3.25
JAN ’26 1016 3
NOV ’26 1053.75 2.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 516.25 -0.5
DEC ’25 536.25 -0.75
JUL ’26 575 -0.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 514.75 -2.25
DEC ’25 535.25 -2.25
JUL ’26 577 -2

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.75 0.02
DEC ’25 5.9725 0.0125
SEP ’26 6.4825 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6373.25 17.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’25 64.68 -0.62

Gold

OCT ’25 3379 -20.5

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day after December had its lowest close ever yesterday and made a new contract low again overnight. Trade is still expecting a large crop as ratings have remained firm.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop ratings for corn unchanged from last week at 73% good to excellent which compared to 67% a year ago at this time. 88% of the crop is silking, 42% is in dough stage, and 6% is dented.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were once again solid for corn at 1,208k tons which compared to 1,532k last week and 1,272k a year ago.

  • Soybeans are higher to start the day, but the November contract still struggles with resistance at the $10 mark. A close above $10 would be bullish and would make that level new support. Both soybean meal and oil are higher as well.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point from last week to 69% good to excellent, but trade expected this. 58% of the soybean crop is setting pods and 85% is blooming.

  • Yesterday’s export inspection report saw soybean sales still sluggish but ahead of last week at 613k tons. This compared to 428k last week and 267k a year ago.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower while Minneapolis trades higher. Weather in Russia and Ukraine could start to lean drier which could cut yield potential.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw spring wheat crop ratings fall by 1 point from last week at 48% good to excellent. 95% of the spring wheat crop is headed and 5% is harvested. 86% of the winter wheat crop is harvested.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were decent for wheat at 600k tons which compared to 290k tons the previous week and 471k a year ago at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-4 End of Day: Soybeans Find Footing, Corn Slips to New Lows Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures pushed to new contract lows to start the week. Prices have now declined in 11 of the past 12 Monday sessions, pressured by favorable weather and the potential for a large harvest.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher for the first time in seven sessions, with November finding technical support near $9.85. The rebound appeared chart-driven, as fundamental pressures from moderate weather and weak export demand persist.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the session mixed, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger Paris wheat futures, though gains were limited by generally favorable global weather and a lack of fresh bullish news.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures pushed to new contract lows to start the week, with December settling at $4.07. Prices have now declined in 11 of the past 12 Monday sessions, pressured by favorable weather and the potential for a large harvest.

  • Weekly export inspections totaled 1.208 MMT (47.5 mb), in line with expectations. Inspections remain 28% ahead of last year, but nearly 8.0 MMT in outstanding sales must be shipped before the August 30 marketing year end.

  • Brazil corn harvest made good progress over the week as weather improved. In the key center-southern regions of Brazil, harvest is 81% complete, up 13% from last week. This is still trending behind last year’s 95% complete levels as a slow start to harvest due to weather and the large production has limited the pace.

  • USDA crop ratings, due Monday afternoon, are expected to show corn rated 73% good/excellent, steady with last week. Ratings often decline this time of year as the crop matures.

  • Managed funds increased short positions in corn by 3,820 contracts last week, bringing the total net short to 181,185 contracts. Favorable U.S. weather and large crop expectations continue to drive bearish sentiment.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,820 contracts between July 22- July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 181,185 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the first time in seven days with the November contract seeming to find support at the $9.85 level. Today’s move felt more technical than anything as weather forecasts have stayed moderate and export demand remains weak. Soybean meal led the complex higher while soybean oil was mostly lower.

  • June U.S. soybean crush totaled 197.1 million bushels—up 7.4% from a year ago but down from May’s 203.7 mb. Robust crush activity has added to global soybean meal supplies, even as soybean oil demand remains firm.

  • China announced another purchase of soybean meal from Argentina. The purchase was for 30,000 MT of soybean meal, which is equivalent to approximately 1.4 mb of soybeans. Soybean meal is at a lower value given the large global supply due to increased global soybean crush.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 25,445 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 36,311 contracts. They bought 11,274 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 66,600 contracts and sold 3,615 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,358 contracts.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 25,445 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 36,311 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished the session with a mixed close. On the positive side, today’s lower U.S. Dollar Index and higher finish for Paris wheat futures were supportive. But pitted against mostly favorable global weather and a lack of fresh friendly news, wheat did not have much reason to move strongly in either direction today.

  •  Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 22 million bushels, lifting 2025/26 marketing year totals to 144 mb—up 9% from a year ago and running ahead of USDA’s projected pace of 850 mb.

  • The Ukrainian grain harvest has reached 15.5 mmt so far. This is 39% behind last year’s 25.3 mmt collected at this time. Of that total, wheat accounts for 11.4 mmt, compared to 19.4 mmt a year ago.

  • According to Friday’s Commitments of Traders report, managed funds added just over 13,000 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat. That is an increase of about 25.5% in only one week, bringing the total number of contracts to just over 65,000. Additionally, they added over 3,000 contracts to their net short in Kansas City wheat, now sitting over 47,000 contracts in total.

  • Heavy rainfall is forecast for the Canadian Prairies this week, likely benefiting wheat conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, though Manitoba may still face suboptimal soil moisture levels.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,283 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 65,324 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,321 contracts between July 22– July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 47,280 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,433 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 17,721 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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8-4 Midday: Soybeans Start the Week Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 389.5 0
DEC ’25 409.75 -1
DEC ’26 448.75 -1.75
Soybeans
NOV ’25 993.75 4.5
JAN ’26 1012 4.25
NOV ’26 1048.75 3
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 517.25 0.5
DEC ’25 538.25 1.25
JUL ’26 576.25 0.75
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 519.25 0.5
DEC ’25 539.5 1
JUL ’26 580.75 1.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.7125 -0.01
DEC ’25 5.95 -0.0175
SEP ’26 6.5325 0.065
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6336.25 71.75
Crude Oil
OCT ’25 65.56 -0.64
Gold
OCT ’25 3400.4 27.2

  • Corn futures are trading near steady Monday morning, still hovering close to recent lows.

  • Several private analysts are projecting the 2025 U.S. corn crop above 16 billion bushels, with national yields at or above 185 bu/acre. The record national average yield remains 179.3 bu/acre set in 2024.

  • U.S. corn export prices out of the Gulf are roughly $10/mt cheaper than Brazilian offers for August and September shipments.

  • After a tough week, soybean futures are starting the first full week of August with a modest rebound.

  • Soybean oil futures have been under pressure lately following last week’s OPEC+ decision to raise oil production again, weighing on energy-linked commodities.

  • Friday’s Census Crush report showed a June soybean grind of 197 million bushels—slightly above expectations but down from May’s 204 million. End-of-June soybean oil stocks came in at 1.893 billion pounds, well above the trade estimate of 1.67 billion.

  • Wheat futures are trading near unchanged to start the week.

  • SovEcon lowered the Russian wheat production estimate by 300,000 mt to 83.3 mmt and cut Ukraine’s production by 2.8 mmt to 19.8 mmt, citing disappointing yields in southern growing regions.

  • Trade negotiations with countries like India and Brazil are still ongoing behind the scenes, but the broader tariff landscape remains a bearish overhang for grain markets.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-04 Opening Update: Grains Mostly Lower to Start Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 388 -1.5
DEC ’25 408.75 -2
DEC ’26 448.25 -2.25

Soybeans

NOV ’25 986.25 -3
JAN ’26 1004.75 -3
NOV ’26 1043.75 -2

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 516.5 -0.25
DEC ’25 537.25 0.25
JUL ’26 575.5 0

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 517.5 -1.25
DEC ’25 537.5 -1
JUL ’26 578.75 -0.75

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.705 -0.0175
DEC ’25 5.95 -0.0175
SEP ’26 6.4675 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6295.75 31.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’25 65.05 -1.15

Gold

OCT ’25 3391.9 18.7

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as the market shifts its attention back to private yield estimates ahead of the WASDE report this month and normal weather conditions for August.

  • The US reportedly used 448 million bushels of corn for ethanol in June which was down 0.1% from a year ago but was up slightly from last month’s 496,454 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn as of July 29. They sold 3,820 contracts which increased their net short position to 181,185 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start the day and have likely been pressured by the increasing tariffs along with good weather last month and less harsh weather expected for August. Soybean meal is higher while bean oil is lower. OPEC agreed to another hike in oil output which is pressuring crude.

  • US soybean crushings for the month of June came in at 197.1 million bushels which was 7.4% higher than this time last year, but crush was down from the previous month’s 203.70 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 25,445 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 36,311 contracts. They bought 11,274 contracts of bean oil and sold 3,615 contracts of meal.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago trading either side of unchanged while both KC and Minneapolis wheat are slightly lower. Ukrainian wheat output has been revised down by 2.8 mmt which should be supportive.

  • In Argentina, recent rains have improved soil moisture reserves in wheat growing areas, and now nearly all of the planted area is in normal to optimal condition. 98.3% of the wheat crop has been planted.

  • Friday’s CFCT report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 13,283 contracts which left them short 65,324 contracts. They sold 3,321 contracts of KC wheat which left them with a net short position of 47,280 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-1 End of Day: Ongoing Trade Concerns Weigh on Grains

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn ended the week lower, unable to gain momentum despite favorable demand news.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day under pressure, weighed down by a bearish weather forecast and ongoing concerns over demand as tariff negotiations continue.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat wrapped up the week with losses across all contracts, facing pressure from renewed tariff concerns and a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure returned to the front end of the corn market to close out the week, with the September contract posting moderate losses and dragging down the broader grain complex. For the week, September corn fell 10 cents, while December corn declined 8 ¼ cents. Additional weakness in the wheat market contributed to the downward pressure, despite supportive demand news and a softer U.S. dollar index.

  • The USDA announced two flash export sales on Friday morning. Sales were announced for unknown destinations buying 125,000 MT (4.9 mb) and 227,160 MT (8.9 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • New crop corn export demand continues to provide underlying support, as U.S. corn remains highly competitive on the global market. With today’s announced flash sales, U.S. exporters have reported 13 separate sales of old and new crop corn since July 24. Current new crop export commitments rank as the third strongest for this time of year in the past decade.

  • The U.S. dollar was lower on the session after the market reacted to a disappointing Jobs report and the announcement of new tariffs. This could signal a lower trend for the U.S. dollar, which should help support corn prices.

  • The extended forecast remains mostly supportive of crop development through mid-August. Temperatures are expected to trend slightly above normal, while rainfall chances range from normal to above normal across much of the Corn Belt — conditions that should continue to aid crop progress.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day unchanged in the front months, while deferred contracts closed slightly higher. November futures took out the previous day’s low every day this week due to bearish weather forecasts and concerns over demand. Soybean meal recovered a portion of its losses while soybean oil followed crude oil lower.

  • Ongoing demand concerns are pressuring soybean prices, with current new crop export sales tracking at the weakest level in the past decade. Notably, China has been absent from new crop purchases — an unusual development, as buying typically begins in July.

  • China announced another purchase of soybean meal from Argentina. The purchase was for 30,000 MT of soybean meal, which is equivalent to approximately 1.4 mb of soybeans. Soybean meal is at a lower value given the large global supply due to increased global soybean crush.

  • For the week, August soybeans lost 37 cents and made a new contract low while November soybeans lost 31-3/4 cents to $9.89-1/4. August soybean meal only lost $0.30 to $267.60 while August soybean oil lost 1.77 to 54.72 cents and posted a bearish reversal.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • U.S. wheat posted losses across the board, alongside a lower close for Paris milling wheat. Weakness in the U.S. wheat market was in part driven by the selloff in equities. The stock market fell today after new reciprocal tariffs went into effect, and the weaker than expected jobs report also did not help the situation.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina is 98% complete and the crop is rated 61% good to excellent. This marks a 10% improvement from the previous report; at this time last year, the crop was only 31% rated GTE. Recent rains have boosted soil moisture levels and contributed to better overall crop conditions.

  • SovEcon has reduced their estimate of Ukrainian wheat production by 2.8 mmt to 19.8 mmt; the USDA is sitting at 22 mmt. The reason for the decline is said to be poor yield results so far – reportedly the average yields are the lowest since 2019. In addition, SovEcon decreased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.3 mmt to 83.3 mmt for similar reasons.

  • The French wheat harvest pace has accelerated due to dry weather. Now said to be 89% complete, this is well above the 63% collected at this time last year, and the average of 78%. And on a bearish note, the European Union as a whole is anticipating a wheat crop that is 17 mmt bigger than last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop today.  The first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider made for the 2026 crop was at 624. A second sale here today will bring the sales average price to approximately 600 vs July ‘26 futures.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

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8-1 Midday: Grain Remains Pressured

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 391 -3
DEC ’25 411 -2.75
DEC ’26 449.75 -0.5
Soybeans
NOV ’25 993.25 4
JAN ’26 1011 3.5
NOV ’26 1044.75 1
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 517.75 -5.5
DEC ’25 537.75 -4.75
JUL ’26 575.75 -4.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 518.5 -7.75
DEC ’25 538.25 -6.5
JUL ’26 578.75 -6
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.725 -0.0525
DEC ’25 5.9625 -0.05
SEP ’26 6.5 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6268.25 -106
Crude Oil
OCT ’25 66.2 -2
Gold
OCT ’25 3376.4 55.3

  • Corn traded lower at midday, despite multiple flash sales reported yesterday and additional sales today, signaling improving demand for U.S. corn.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 125,000 ton and 227,160 ton of U.S. Corn for export to unknown destinations for the 25/26 year.

  • Argentina’s corn harvest is 88% complete, and its recently reduced export tax is now in effect.

  • The percentage of U.S. corn under drought has declined by 2% with recent weather improvements, now at 7% compared to 5% at this time last year.

  • Soybeans moved higher at midday despite ongoing pressure from demand concerns, weather, and tariff uncertainty. Both soybeans and soybean meal posted gains, while soybean oil continued to trade lower.

  • President Trump announced new tariff rates of 25% on India and 35% on Canada as negotiations with both countries stall. He has yet to confirm whether the tariff truce with China will be extended.

  • China purchased a third cargo of Argentine soybean meal yesterday, totaling 30,000 metric tons for September/October shipment.

  • Wheat traded lower at midday on concerns over sluggish global demand, with export pace from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU remaining seasonally slow.

  • HRS wheat under drought dropped 5% to 38%, though it remains significantly higher than the 16% reported at this time last year.

  • In Argentina, planting is nearly complete at 98.3%, and recent rainfall has improved crop conditions by 10 points, with 61% now rated good to excellent—up from just 31% at this time last year.

  • SovEcon lowered its Ukrainian wheat production forecast by 2.8 million tons to 19.8 million, citing disappointing yields.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-01 Opening Update: Corn Higher, Soybeans and Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 394.75 0.75
DEC ’25 414.75 1
DEC ’26 451 0.75
Soybeans
NOV ’25 989.5 0.25
JAN ’26 1007.5 0
NOV ’26 1042.75 -1
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 519.5 -3.75
DEC ’25 539 -3.5
JUL ’26 577 -3
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 522.75 -3.5
DEC ’25 542 -2.75
JUL ’26 582.25 -2.5
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.755 -0.0225
DEC ’25 5.9925 -0.02
SEP ’26 6.5 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6310.25 -64
Crude Oil
OCT ’25 67.44 -0.76
Gold
OCT ’25 3324.1 3

  • Corn futures are trading slightly higher heading into the weekend with the December contract looking to have found some support near the $4.10 level.

  • Yesterday, President Trump increased tariffs on Canada to 35% from 25%, and the new rates go into effect today. The president raised tariffs on 90 other countries yesterday as well.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales at a very strong 2,233k tons which compared to 1,377k last week and 879k a year ago. Top buyers were unknown, South Korea, and Mexico.

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start the day and have likely been pressured by the tariff increase announcement on nearly all trading partners. Soybean meal is once again higher while bean oil is lower.

  • Soybeans have closed lower in six of the last seven sessions, as traders grow increasingly concerned that the upcoming August WASDE report could show higher-than-expected yields. A larger crop, combined with weak export demand, raises the risk of a heavier carryout.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales at 779k tons which compared to 400k last week and 1,009k a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, unknown, and Egypt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning. The higher dollar index, along with the tariff announcement, has pressured grains, but wheat is hovering near support.

  • In Argentina, recent rains have improved soil moisture reserves in wheat growing areas, and now nearly all of the planted area is in normal to optimal condition. 98.3% of the wheat crop has been planted.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales decent at 630k tons which compared to 712k last week and 287k a year ago. Top buyers were unknown, the Philippines, and Ecuador.

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