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8-14 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Across the Board Following Export Sales Report

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn markets saw weakness today, closing lower due to a disappointing export report and expectations of a larger-than-anticipated upcoming crop, both of which weighed on prices.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower as growing concerns over China’s reliability as a trade partner weighed on the market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the trading day lower across all classes, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a lack of fresh catalysts to spark any upward momentum in the market.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – yesterday the 420 puts closed at 30-7/8 cents.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished mixed to lower in the session as prices consolidated at recent lows. Weaknesses in other grains, export sales cancellations, and the prospects of large supplies limit the upside in the corn market.

  • The USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning, and it brought a mixed bag of information. Sales for the 2024-25 marketing year hit a market year low with net reductions of 88,700 MT (3.5 mb). While a few new sales occurred, they were offset by 601,200 MT (23.7 mb) of reductions. The marketing year ends at the end of the month, what can’t get shipped is either canceled or rolled to 2025-26. New crop sales remain strong with sales of 2.048 MMT (80.7 mb). 

  • USDA announced flash exports sales of corn on Thursday morning. South Korea to purchase 136,000MT and Spain added 132,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year. U.S. corn export prices will remain competitive moving into the fall months as the market works through a potential record supply of corn.

  • The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB raise their expectations for the Brazil corn crop by 5 MMT on Thursday morning to 137 MMT crop (5.398 BB), which is a record production. USDA forecast the Brazil crop at 132 MMT on Tuesday WASDE report.

  • Corn prices will likely stay pressured, or rallies limited as both the U.S. and Brazil are producing record corn crops. The large volume of supply in the global corn market will take time to digest as the corn market is currently in a supply driven bear market and demand will be the key.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The upside target to exit two-thirds of the 1100 calls at 88 cents has been cancelled, given the substantial rally that would be required to reach that target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • A new upside Plan B call buy stop has been activated. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower following three days of large gains as weakness in soybean oil weighed on the complex along with concerns over export demand and China as a trade partner. Despite the losses, November futures closed above all major moving averages. Soybean meal ended the day lower as well.

  • Export sales were mixed for soybeans with a net cancellation of 13.9 million bushels for 24/25 and an increase of 41.6 mb for 25/26. New crop sales were better than expected. Top buyers were the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 19.6 mb were below the 26.9 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.

  • Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.

  • In Brazil, soybean production is expected to rise by nearly 1 mmt to 170.5 mmt because of better than expected yields. The USDA has not yet increased production estimates for Brazil.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board. Today’s PPI report showed higher than expected inflation, which led to a jump in the U.S. Dollar, which ultimately weighed on wheat values. Additionally, a recent lack of fresh friendly news has made it difficult for wheat to rally.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 26.6 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 12.5 mb, which falls under the 17.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their 25/26 export goal of 875 mb. However, total 25/26 sales commitments have reached 404 mb which is up 24% from last year.

  • In an update from CONAB, they kept their Brazilian wheat production estimate unchanged at 7.81 mmt. This is slightly above the USDA’s guess of 7.5 mmt. Meanwhile, the Rosario Grain Exchange has said that good rains are benefiting Argentina’s wheat crop, and their production estimate has been kept steady at 20 mmt.

  • After recent rains, spring wheat areas in drought as of August 12 have fallen to just 16% compared with 35% the week before. While the moisture may benefit later planted crops, it may also slow HRS harvest and potentially cause quality concerns. In addition, winter wheat areas in drought declined 1% to 29% over the same time period.

  • According to DRV, a German ag co-op group, Germany’s 2025 grain harvest is now estimated at 43 mmt, up from 41.7 mmt previously. This would be a 10% jump above the 2024 crop, if accurate. Wheat production specifically is now seen at 22.4 mmt, compared with 21.6 mmt before.

  • The finance and agriculture ministries in China have allocated 1.1 billion yuan (the equivalent of over $153 million USD) in disaster relief funds. The goal is to stabilize grain production in major growing regions.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 599.75 target was lowered to 596.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 608.50 upside target was raised to 612.25.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 622 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 683 upside sale target was lowered to 661.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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8-14 Midday: Weakness In Grains Continues at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures remain weaker at midday on pressure from growing production estimates in the US and South America.

  • Weekly corn exports totaled 77 mb, which were on par with expectations. Year-to-date commitments now sit at 2.777 billion bushels, up 26% from last year.

  • Conab has raised their total corn production estimate for Brazil to 137 mmt, up from the groups previous forecast of 131.97 mmt. The group also raised Brazil’s export forecast by 4 mmt to 40 mmt due to increased supplies.

  • Soybean prices are drifting lower at midday, pressured by lack of US export engagement from China despite US products being cheaper than South America.

  • Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at the low end of expectations at 28 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.878 billion bushels, which is up 11.5% from the previous year.

  • Conab raised Brazil’s soybean production estimate slightly to 169.65 mmt, but was below the average guess of 170.5 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trending lower at midday as the bear camp holds the reigns. Large ending stocks in the US and a potential agreement between the US and Russia tomorrow are keeping pressure on wheat prices.

  • Weekly wheat exports remain strong, beating expectations at 27 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 404 mb, up 24% from last year and remain at a five-year high.

  • Conab left their wheat production estimate for Brazil unchanged from last month at 7.81 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-14 Opening Update: Grains Slide Following Yesterday’s Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets!   While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are lower to start the day erasing yesterday’s gains so far. While a decline in the Dollar index yesterday was supportive, traders are still faced with a huge crop and estimated carryout of over 2 billion bushels. 

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,150k and 2,800k tons with an average guess of 1,967k. This would compare to 3,334k last week and 921k tons a year ago at this time. 

  • US ethanol stocks fell by 4.7% to 22.649m bbl which was well below the average analyst estimate of 23.722m. Plant production came in higher at 1.093m barrels per day. 

Corn Futures Slump to Start August: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start the day following three days of very sharp gains that were fueled by a surprise reduction in acreage in Tuesday’s WASDE report. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower. 

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 450k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 950k tons. This would compare to 1,013k last week and 1,481k a year ago at this time. 

  • In Brazil, soybean production is expected to rise by nearly 1 mmt to 170.5 mmt as a result of better than expected yields. The USDA has not yet increased production estimates for Brazil. 

Soybeans Test April Lows: Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC wheat trading lower along with the rest of the grains while Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher. Despite a relatively friendly USDA report, wheat has struggled near the $5 level with larger Russian and Ukrainian production weighing on prices along with US harvest. 

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 400k and 850k tons with an average guess of 600k tons. This would compare to 738k last week and 273k a year ago at this time. 

  • In Germany, the 2025 grain output forecast has been raised for both wheat and corn. Total grains are estimated at 43 mmt up from 41.7 mmt last month with wheat at 22.4 mmt compared to 21.6 mmt a month ago. This is due to larger acreage and better yields than expected. 

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows: KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide: Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-13 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed as Traders Weigh USDA Data

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: The corn market finished higher today, as traders continued to digest yesterday’s report and found additional support from strength in the other grain markets.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended Wednesday’s trade higher, as traders continued to draw support from yesterday’s report and optimism over a potential trade deal with China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat trade ended mixed, struggling to gain momentum following yesterday’s lackluster USDA report for the wheat markets.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – yesterday the 420 puts closed at 30-7/8 cents.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market posted marginal gains on Wednesday as the market continues to process Tuesday’s negative USDA crop production report forecasting a record corn crop for this fall. Strength in other grains helped provide support to the market. 

  • Even with a yield forecast well above expectations, the addition of 2.1 million acres to the corn crop was the biggest weight on prices and potential supplies ballooned. The corn market is in a supply driven bear market, and demand will be the key to working through a burdensome supply outlook.

  • New crop corn export sales are off to a strong start with one of the best years in accumulated sales over the past two decades. As of July 31, new crop export sales commitments have totaled 11.77 MMT (433.2 mb). This is over twice as much corn sold last year for the 2024-25 marketing year at this time window.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales report tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales for the 2025-26 marketing year to range from 900,000 – 2.4 MMT for the week ending August 7.

  • Participants in the corn market will be watching crop tours and “boots on the ground” tours to determine if the USDA yield is accurate. Finishing weather and disease pressure are going to be components in the final yield level puzzle.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The upside target to exit two-thirds of the 1100 calls at 88 cents has been cancelled, given the substantial rally that would be required to reach that target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • A new upside Plan B call buy stop has been activated. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the third consecutive day with the November contract posting its highest close since July 3 and filled the gap on the chart for that day. For the week, November soybeans have gained a whopping 56-3/4 cents so far. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • The U.S. is reportedly losing out on Chinese soybean sales as Brazil fills their needs during this key export period for the U.S. President Trump has tried to encourage China to buy, but they have been absent. In addition, U.S. soybeans are now much more expensive than Brazilian offers.

  • Highlights from yesterday’s report included an increase in estimated yield to 53.6 bpa. This was above the average trade estimate of 53 bpa and was above last month’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. However, both production and ending stocks were lowered due to a surprise revision lower in planted acreage. Ending stocks for 25/26 are now at just 290 mb, below the estimate of 360 mb. World-ending stocks were lowered slightly for 25/26.

  • Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close today, not able to find strength in either direction. This is likely the result of a somewhat neutral report yesterday, along with a lack of fresh impactful news. While September Chicago did make a new low today, it has not breached support at the five-dollar level, yet. Wheat may continue to follow corn for the time being.

  • Early next week, Argentinian wheat growing areas are expected to see beneficial rains. Meanwhile, rain in the US northern Plains is expected to have a negative impact on spring wheat quality and may also slow harvest.

  • According to the Russian agriculture ministry, their 2025 grain harvest is 47% complete – an estimated 75 mmt of grain has been collected so far. Recently, they estimated that total grain output would reach 135 mmt.

  • SovEcon has increased their Russian wheat production estimate from 83.6 mmt to 85.2 mmt. Better than expected yields, along with higher acreage, are cited as the reasons for the uptick. Wheat planted area is now estimated at 26.9 million hectares versus 26.6 million hectares previously.  

  • European Union soft wheat exports reached 1.43 mmt as of August 10; the export season began on July 1. This total is down about 56% from the 3.28 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year. The top importer was Saudi Arabia, followed by Nigeria and Algeria.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 599.75 target was lowered to 596.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 681 upside target was lowered to 608.5.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 622 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 683 upside sale target was lowered to 662.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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8-13 Midday: Markets Continue to React to WASDE Report Impact

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading higher at midday as traders digest yesterday’s USDA report, which revealed a record-large acreage increase in the August update along with a significant boost to yield estimates.

  • Markets remain concerned about whether U.S. export demand for corn can grow enough to offset the impact of a record crop.

  • U.S. crop tours assessing the current corn crop are set to begin next week and are expected to provide either confirmation or contradiction of the USDA’s yield and acreage estimates.

  • Ethanol production rebounded to 321 million gallons last week, up from 318 million the previous week and 2% higher year over year. The production process used 109 million bushels of corn, averaging 15.56 million bushels per day — well above the 14.9 million bushels per day needed to meet the USDA’s revised annual forecast of 5.472 billion bushels.

  • Soybeans continue to gain at midday, supported by yesterday’s bullish USDA data. Both soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher, while soybean oil is moving lower at midday.

  • Soybean futures saw their highest daily trading volume since early April during yesterday’s session.

  • Traders remain cautious despite the current soybean crop being in excellent condition, acknowledging that there’s still time for weather or other factors to impact yields before harvest is complete.

  • While the USDA did trim new crop export projections, forecasting demand remains challenging without a signed trade agreement with China.

  • ANEC raised their Brazil bean export forecast for August to 8.8 million tons, up from 8.15 estimated last week.

  • Wheat is trading mixed at midday as traders digest yesterday’s USDA report, which offered no major surprises for the wheat markets.

  • SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production estimate to 85.2 million tons, up from 83.6 on a larger planted area.

  • Ukraine’s exports since July 1st remain slow, totaling 1.42 million tons — down significantly from 2.61 million tons during the same period last year.

  • EU SRW exports through August 10 are down 56% year over year due to weaker demand and Black Sea competition.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-13 Opening Update: Soybeans Continue Trek Higher, Corn Follows

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 373 1.5
DEC ’25 396 1.5
DEC ’26 445.25 1.25

Soybeans

NOV ’25 1042 9.25
JAN ’26 1059.75 9
NOV ’26 1070.5 6

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 506.25 1.25
DEC ’25 527.25 1.25
JUL ’26 567.75 0.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 510 -0.75
DEC ’25 529.75 -0.25
JUL ’26 571 1

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.77 -0.0025
DEC ’25 5.96 0.01
SEP ’26 6.435 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6481 12.5

Crude Oil

OCT ’25 61.97 -0.51

Gold

OCT ’25 3385.2 14.1

  •  Corn is trading higher this morning following yesterday’s sell-off caused by a very bearish WASDE report. Yesterday, December corn made a new contract low and has not taken out that low yet today.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report was very bearish withe the USDA pegging the 25/26 yield at 188.8 bpa while the average guess was 184.3 bpa. 25/26 ending stocks are now expected at 2.12 billion bushels, up from 1.66 bb expected in July.

  • Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production slightly higher than last week at 1.084m b/d. Stockpiles are expected lower at 23.722m bbl.

  • Soybeans are trading higher following yesterday’s big rally and surprisingly bullish WASDE report. November futures are trading at the highest level since the previous July 18 high. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.

  • Yesterday, the USDA surprised traders by decreasing planted acreage for soybeans which sharply cut the 25/26 ending stocks to 290 mb from an average guess of 358 mb. Yield was raised to 53.6 bpa, but the crop will still be smaller than expected.

  • The US is reportedly losing out on Chinese soybean sales as Brazil fills their needs during this key export period for the US. President Trump has tried to encourage China to buy, but they have been absent.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago wheat higher while KC and Minneapolis wheat trade lower. Yesterday, wheat prices fell sharply even with a slightly friendly USDA report, wheat seemed to follow corn lower.

  • Yesterday’s report saw wheat ending stocks for 25/26 down to869 mb from 890 mb last month. World wheat ending stocks were pegged down below trade expectations.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report saw spring wheat conditions improve one point to 49% good to excellent which is still a far cry from last year’s 72% at this time. 16% of the crop has been harvested and 90% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-12 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed After WASDE: Corn and Wheat Fall, Soybeans Gain

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn markets closed lower today, pressured by a larger-than-expected increase in yield in today’s Crop Production Report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean markets were the only grain to post gains today, supported by a bullish WASDE report that raised yield estimates.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets followed corn lower today, with all three classes posting losses, pressured by the latest WASDE report.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A surprise acre adjustment and a larger than expected yield adjustment on the August crop production report pressured corn futures to new contract lows as the market experienced sharp losses. Only the strength in the soybean market likely supported the corn market on the session.

  • The USDA increased corn planted acreage by 2.1 million acres to 90.7 million on the crop production report for August. In addition, raised the projected yield well above expectations to 188.8 bu/acre for this year’s corn crop. The surge in acres and yield projected for this year’s U.S. corn crop brought production to 16.742 BB, up 1.875 BB from last year as the U.S. is forecasted for a record crop on record acreage.

  • The total of 16.742 BB is a large supply. The USDA made strong demand adjustments totaling 545 mb for exports, feed usage, and ethanol usage to cut into that corn supply, but new crop carryout is projected at 2.117 BB, well over market expectations.

  • The combination of corn supply and demand puts the stocks-to-use ratio at 13.3% or approximately 48.5 days of available supply. This is a heavy ratio, and the largest in U.S. corn since 2018-19 marketing year.

  • Export demand remains strong as Mexico was a purchaser of corn on a flash sale overnight. Mexico added 315,488 MT (12.42 mb) of corn split between this year and next marketing year. 20,830 MT for 2024-25, and 294,658 MT (11.6 MB) for 2025-26. U.S. corn will stay very competitive in the global export market well into the end of the year at these price levels.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The upside target to exit two-thirds of the 1100 calls at 88 cents has been cancelled, given the substantial rally that would be required to reach that target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • A new upside Plan B call buy stop has been activated. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher fueled by a bullish WASDE report. The November contract closed above all major moving averages for the first time in nearly a month and traded within a 41-cent range for the day. Both soybean meal and oil were higher, but not significantly.

  • Highlights from today’s report included an increase in estimated yield to 53.6 bpa. This was above the average trade guess of 53 bpa and was above last month’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. However, both production and ending stocks were lowered due to a surprise revision lower in planted acreage. Ending stocks for 25/26 are now at just 290 mb, below the estimate of 360 mb. World ending stocks were lowered slightly for 25/26.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point to 68% good to excellent which is the same rating seen a year ago at this time. 91% of the crop is blooming and 71% is setting pods, both in line with last year’s progress.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections came in better than expected today with soybean inspections totaling 19 mb for the week ending August 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.77 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year at this time. China has remained absent from purchasing.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all three classes today, with Chicago futures posting new contract lows. Market attention was focused on the monthly WASDE report, which leaned bearish for winter wheat but offered slight support for spring wheat. Overall, the report was relatively neutral for the wheat complex. However, weakness in the corn market likely dragged wheat lower as a follower.

  • On today’s report, the USDA lowered 25/26 wheat production by 2 mb from last month, to 1.927 bb. Winter wheat production increased 10 mb to 1.355 bb, which was more than expected, whereas spring wheat production fell 19 mb to 485 mb. U.S. exports were also raised by 25 mb.

  • U.S. wheat ending stocks for 24/25 were unchanged at 851 mb, but for 25/26 they were cut by 21 mb to 869 mb. Globally, 24/25 carryout declined by 0.9 mmt to 262.7 mmt, and for 25/26 it was dropped buy 1.4 mmt to 260.1 mmt.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat harvested advanced 4% to 90% complete. Additionally, spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 49% good to excellent and 16% of that crop is harvested, up from 5% last week.

  • According to data from Rosstat, Russia’s 2025 planted area decreased by 1.1%, and grain areas in particular fell by 5.1%. Wheat areas specifically declined from 16.134 million hectares to 15.815 million hectares.

  • Data from Cepea indicates that Brazilian wheat imports are on the rise, while domestic prices are falling. The amount accumulated in the past 12 months is said to be about 20% above the previous 12 months. In addition, Secex reports that Brazil imported 616,910 mt of wheat in July, up 26.7% from their June imports.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 681 upside target was lowered to 608.5.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 622 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 683 upside sale target was lowered to 662.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

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8-12 Midday: Weakness In Grains Continues at Midday Ahead of WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 381 -4
DEC ’25 404 -3.75
DEC ’26 447.5 -2.5
Soybeans
NOV ’25 999 -12.25
JAN ’26 1018.25 -11.25
NOV ’26 1048.25 -6.75
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 508.75 -6.25
DEC ’25 529.25 -6.25
JUL ’26 569.25 -7.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 515.75 -3.25
DEC ’25 533.75 -3.75
JUL ’26 570.5 -5.5
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.765 -0.0125
DEC ’25 5.9425 -0.015
SEP ’26 6.45 -0.0175
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6446 46.25
Crude Oil
OCT ’25 62.39 -0.12
Gold
OCT ’25 3365.4 -10.8

  • Corn prices continue to struggle at midday as market participants await the release of the WASDE report which is expected to be bearish for prices.

  • Estimates for today’s report see corn yield at 184.3 bpa, up from 181 bpa last month. Both US and world ending stocks are also seen rising in today’s report.

  • Brazil’s winter corn harvest advanced 7% from last week to 88% complete according to AgRural. This compares to 97% done for the same week last year.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings slipping 1 point from last week to 72% good-to-excellent. Ratings are still up 5% from the same week last year.

  • Soybeans are weaker at midday, pressured by the highly anticipated WASDE report today.

  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report see soybean yields up slightly to 53 bpa compared to 52.5 bpa in last months report. Both US and world ending stocks are expected to increase as well which could add some additional downside pressure on prices.

  • President Trump announced a 90-day extension on tariffs for Chinese imports now through November 10.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings dropping 1 point from last week to 68% good-to-excellent but is on par with ratings from a year earlier.

  • All three wheat classes are lower at midday along with the rest of the grain market despite estimates for lower production and ending stocks.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed spring wheat ratings improving 1 point to 49% good-to-excellent but remain well below last year’s rating of 72% good-to-excellent. Spring wheat harvest advanced to 16% complete which is on par with last year’s harvest pace.

  • Winter wheat harvest climbed to 90% done, slightly behind last year’s pace of 92% done and the 5-year average through the same week of 91%.

  • President Trump is expected to meet with Russia’s Putin later this week in Alaska to discuss ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-12 Opening Update: Grains Lower Ahead of Today’s WASDE Report

ByRyan Mainville

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 381.25 -3.75
DEC ’25 404 -3.75
DEC ’26 448 -2

Soybeans

NOV ’25 998.5 -12.75
JAN ’26 1016.75 -12.75
NOV ’26 1047.25 -7.75

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 509 -6
DEC ’25 529.5 -6
JUL ’26 570.75 -5.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 513.75 -5.25
DEC ’25 532.5 -5
JUL ’26 570.75 -5.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.7725 -0.005
DEC ’25 5.96 0.0025
SEP ’26 6.4675 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6396.5 -3.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’25 62.86 -0.23

Gold

OCT ’25 3363 -13.2

  • Corn is trading lower to start the day as trade prepares for a potentially volatile and bearish USDA report. While a primary focus will be on the yield estimate, export demand will be important to watch as well.

  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report see corn yields coming in at 184.3 bpa which is above trendline yield, but the USDA could call yields higher. 25/26 ending stocks are estimated at 1.92 bb and world ending stocks are expected to rise from last month.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn conditions fall one point to 72% good to excellent which was expected. This compares to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is silking, 58% is in dough stage, and 14% is dented. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning but have backed off more significant lows in overnight trade. Yesterday, it was announced that no trade deal had been struck with China and the tariff truce would be extended again until November 9. Both soybean meal and oil are lower.

  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report estimate the soybean yield at 53.0 bpa with production at 4.37 billion bushels, but the yield number could come in higher. Ending stocks are estimated at 358 mb.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point to 68% good to excellent which is the same rating seen a year ago at this time. 91% of the crop is blooming and 71% is setting pods, both in line with last year’s progress.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day as a general bearish tone settles across the grains in anticipation for the USDA report today. Yesterday’s export inspections were sluggish for wheat yesterday which did not help.

  • Estimates for wheat ending stocks in today’s USDA report are now at 882 mb which would be down slightly from last month’s 890 mb. World ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw spring wheat conditions improve one point to 49% good to excellent which is still a far cry from last year’s 72% at this time. 16% of the crop has been harvested and 90% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-11 End of Day: Grains Position Ahead of USDA’s WASDE Report Release

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week on a positive note, ending the day with gains, supported by export inspections that came in above market expectations.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher on Monday, supported by headlines that President Trump urged China to significantly increase its soybean purchases, fueling hopes for stronger export demand.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended Monday’s session mixed, as traders positioned themselves ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report while being pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.

      • For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market began the week with modest gains, supported by strength in the soybean market and friendly corn demand , as traders positioned ahead of Tuesday’s August WASDE report.

  • The August USDA Crop Production Report, set for release Tuesday, is expected to include potential yield adjustments that could impact market direction. Analysts peg average corn yield at 184.3 bu/acre, 3.3 bu/acre above trend, with estimates ranging from 182.5 to 188.1 — setting the stage for volatility. In addition, the market will be closely watched for demand-side adjustments, as new crop ending stocks are expected to rise to 1.900 billion bushels, up from 1.660 billion. The projected increase in production is anticipated to contribute to the larger carryout.

  • USDA did not announce any flash sales of corn on Monday but did release weekly export inspections. For the week ending August 7, US exporters shipped 1.492 MMT (58.7 mb) of corn, above market expectations.

  • Corn export shipments out of Brazil last week were at 1.71 MMT, which was down 0.9% under last week. Corn shipments out of Brazil to date for August at 7.58 MMT, up 18% over last year as Brazil wraps up harvest of a record second corn crop.

  • Still in search of a deal with China, President Trump signed an executive order on Monday afternoon to extend the tariff deadline with China until November 9. China is still absent from the U.S. corn and soybean export market going into the 2025-26 marketing year.s.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,435 contracts between July 29- August 5, bringing their total position to a net short 173,750 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, with the November contract recovering a significant portion of the losses from the past two weeks after President Trump urged China to ‘quadruple’ its soybean purchases. Shortly after the market closed, it was announced that the U.S. would extend its pause on Chinese tariffs until November 9, providing additional time for trade negotiations.

  • Export inspections came in better than expected today with soybean inspections totaling 19 mb for the week ending August 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.77 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year at this time. China has remained absent from purchasing.

  • The August USDA Crop Production report will be out tomorrow and could bring yield adjustments to the soybean crop. Analysts peg average yield at 53.0 bu/acre, 0.5 bu/acre above the trendline, with estimates ranging from 52.0 to 54.0 bpa — setting the stage for volatility.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 29,619 contracts increasing their net short position to 65,930 contracts. They sold 11,661 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 54,939 contracts and 234 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,592 contracts.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 29,619 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 63,930 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed quietly, hovering near neutral, as traders weighed multiple factors ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report, where the U.S. wheat balance sheet is expected to show a slightly bullish outlook. However, today’s higher U.S. Dollar and lower close for Matif wheat likely limited upside for U.S. futures.

  • The average pre-report estimate of U.S. 25/26 all wheat production comes in at 1.925 bb, down slightly from the 1.929 bb estimated in July. When broken down by class, winter wheat production is expected to increase 4 mb, while spring wheat is expected to decrease 7 mb. Additionally, U.S. ending stocks are expected to fall 1 mb to 850 mb for 24/25, while for 25/26 the carryout is anticipated to decline by 5 mb to 885 mb.  

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 13.4 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 161 mb, up 2% from last year. This is below the USDA’s projected pace; 25/26 exports are estimated up 3% from the year prior at 850 mb.

  • President Trump will meet this Friday in Alaska with Russian President Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine, which will hopefully lead to a peace deal. There were also rumors that Ukraine’s President Zelensky would be in attendance, but at this time that has not been confirmed.

  • According to Rusagrotrans, Russia shipped 1.78 mmt of wheat in the month of July, which is down from the 2.8 mmt exported last year. Egypt was the top purchaser at 371,000 mt, followed by Turkey at 228,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia at 128,000 mt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • New upside sales target.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 15,445 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 80,769 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,783 contracts between July 29– August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 57,063 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,982 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 22,703 contracts.

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