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11-11 End of Day: Corn and Beans Fail to Extend Friday’s Gains as Wheat Breaks Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures failed to gain traction to the upside and settled mid-range, weighed down by lower wheat, strength in the US dollar, and a still sizable US supply.

  • Soybeans closed at the low end of its range following another failed test to stay above the 100-day moving average. Carryover weakness from a bearish reversal in soybean oil, and a lower close in meal contributed to the day’s decline.

  • Much needed rain over winter wheat areas this weekend triggered early selling across the wheat complex. While the complex closed lower overall, December contracts for all three classes settled in the upper-middle of their respective ranges.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished lower on the day, pressured by heavy overall supplies, a strong US dollar and selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets.

  • December corn futures failed to find some follow through buying after Friday’s USDA report. Despite the reduced yield and production, the corn carry out was only 8 mb below market expectations, which limited the market’s upside. Prices did hold support at 425 in the December contract, finishing in the middle of Friday’s price range.

  • With the Veteran’s Day Holiday, the USDA will release weekly export inspections on Tuesday. The expectation for those shipments is for them to be in the 700,000 to 900,000 mt range. 

  • The corn market may be limited as it moves closer to the First Notice Day for December futures, and producers holding December basis contracts will need to either price those bushels or roll them to the March contract

  • Managed funds have become long in the corn market for the first time since August 2023. They built a long position of approximately 22,000 contracts, completely erasing the record short position they held this past summer.

Above: December corn tested the October high and retreated, signaling resistance in that area. A breakout above this level set the market up for a move toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. Below the market, If prices  retreat, support below the market may come in between 415 and 409.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 39,746 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net long 22,043 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after trading higher in the morning, which brought January futures up to the 100-day moving average before sliding back for the second consecutive day. Friday’s WASDE report was friendly with a cut to yield and a decrease in ending stocks. Despite these cuts, the US is still on track to produce a very large soybean crop.

  • This morning, soy products initially moved in opposite directions, with soybean meal rising and soybean oil falling. However, both slipped throughout the day and closed lower, with soybean oil posting larger losses. Recent increases in crush have met demand for soybean oil but have created a surplus of soybean meal.

  • Friday’s WASDE report showed soybean yields dropping more than expected, from 53.1 bpa last month to 51.7 bpa. As a result, total production declined to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 billion, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 million. Export demand was reduced by 25 million bushels despite strong recent sales, and global ending stocks also dropped, coming in below the lower range of analyst estimates.

  • Friday’s CFTC report indicated that, as of November 5, funds had bought back just 2,114 contracts, leaving them net short 70,112 contracts. It’s estimated that funds have bought back an additional 28,000 contracts since then.

Above: The breakout above 1018 on Nov. 7, suggests the market has the potential to test the September highs near 1070. Before reaching that point, prices may encounter nearby resistance between 1044 and 1050. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near the 50-day moving average and again near 975.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,114 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 70,112 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was under pressure today and, though it still posted a negative close, managed to finish well above session lows. Much of the weakness stemmed from good rains that moved across the US winter wheat belt over the weekend, helping to alleviate drought conditions and improve crop prospects. Adding to the weakness, the US Dollar Index pushed to a new near-term high today.

  • According to SovEcon, Russia exported 770,000 mt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 720,000 mt of that total. This was well below the 1.12 mmt of wheat exported the prior week. Additionally, IKAR reported that Russian wheat export values ended last week at $228 per mt, down from $232 the week before and well below the government’s suggested $245 price floor.

  • Ukrainian grain exports for the first week of November rose about 5% from the previous year to 902,000 mt, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. Since the season began on July 1, total grain exports have reached 15.3 mmt, up 52% from last year. Wheat alone accounts for 8 mmt of that total, which is an increase of 60% from last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 558 and close just above indicates that support may still lie between 558 and 552. If prices remain above 558 and rally, they may target the 600 – 617 area, though heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586. Otherwise, a close below 552 may suggest further weakness and a test of 521 – 514 support area.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 391 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 30,781 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The break below 561 appears to have found initial support around 547. Although a close below this level could lead to a market test of support near the August low of 527. Should prices turn back higher, they may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,920 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 14,080 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market break below 595 may have found support near 583. If this support holds and prices turnaround, they may still find heavy resistance between 615 and 624, a rally above which could set the market up to test the October highs with intermediate resistance near 637. Otherwise, a retreat through 583, could lead to a test of the 563 August low.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,127 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 17,108 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-11 Midday: Markets Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 427.25 -3.75
MAR ’25 440 -4.25
DEC ’25 442.25 -6.75
Soybeans
JAN ’25 1024.5 -5.75
MAR ’25 1036.5 -7
NOV ’25 1041.5 -11
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 553.25 -19.25
MAR ’25 568.5 -19
JUL ’25 586 -19
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 547.75 -16.5
MAR ’25 561 -16.5
JUL ’25 579 -16.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 584 -13.75
MAR ’25 603.75 -13.5
SEP ’25 639 -7
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6037.5 12.25
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 67.9 -2.21
Gold
JAN ’25 2635.4 -71.8

  • So far today the corn market is softer at midday with December showing the most strength as it trades near the lower end of its range, with carryover weakness from lower wheat.

  • China’s agricultural ministry reported that China’s bumper corn harvest close to being complete, leaving the country with sufficient corn supplies. Although continued rainfall in northeastern the regions may compromise grain quality and transportation.

  • The USDA released its monthly supply/demand report on Friday. They showed average corn yield dropping more than expected to 183.1 bpa, which helped bring projected 24/25 ending stocks down to 1.938 billion bushels.

  • After the market closed on Friday, the Commitment of Traders report was released, showing that managed funds’ corn net position shifted to net long for the first time since August 2023, to 22,043 contracts.

  • Soybeans are currently near the low end of the trading range after hitting resistance near Friday’s highs and reversing. Lower soybean oil is likely weighing on soybeans as it reversed from posting fresh highs overnight. Meanwhile meal is higher on the day as it remains largely rangebound for the month.

  • Patria Agronegocios reported that Brazil’s soybean planting is ahead of last year’s pace. The firm estimated that 68.36% of the soybean crop has been planted so far, versus 61.28% a year ago.

  • Friday the USDA released its November supply/demand projections for the 24/25 crop year. Yield projections were dropped from 53.1 bpa last month to 51.7 bpa. This lowered projected 24/25 ending stocks much more than expected to 470 million bushels from 550 mb in October.

  • Managed funds were relatively quiet in the soybean market in the week ending Nov. 5. Funds bought a net 2,114 contracts, which brought their net short position for that week to 70,112 soybean futures contracts.

  • The wheat complex remains sharply lower at midday led by losses in the Chicago contracts after traders came out selling Sunday evening as much needed rain moved through HRW country, with more expected this weekend.

  • Ukraine’s 24/25 grain production and export projections remain unchanged from last month according to analyst APK-Inform. Production is seen at 52.5 million metric tons, with exports remaining at 37.3 mmt versus 51 mmt for 23/24.

  • Friday’s November WASDE report didn’t offer any significant market moving news. The USDA raised US wheat ending stocks for the 24/25 marketing year 3 million bushels to 815 mb, from October.

  • Managed funds were very quiet in the Chicago wheat market in the week ending Nov. 5. Managed funds bought a mere net 391 Chicago wheat futures contracts, which isn’t very surprising considering the lack of price movement during that time. Managed funds’ overall Chicago wheat net short position was 30,781 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-11 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 430 -1
MAR ’25 443 -1.25
DEC ’25 445.75 -3.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 1035 4.75
MAR ’25 1047.25 3.75
NOV ’25 1052.25 -0.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 560.75 -11.75
MAR ’25 577.25 -10.25
JUL ’25 595.25 -9.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 553 -11.25
MAR ’25 566.75 -10.75
JUL ’25 586 -9.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 589.5 -8.25
MAR ’25 611.75 -5.5
SEP ’25 641.5 -4.5

S&P 500

DEC ’24 6046 20.75

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 68.95 -1.16

Gold

JAN ’25 2678.8 -28.4

  • Corn futures are trading lower this morning and have faded from slightly higher prices overnight. December corn gained over 16 cents last week as a result of very strong export demand and a reduction in the national yield estimate by the USDA.

  • Friday’s WASDE report was surprising showing a decrease in the corn yield to 183.1 bpa from 183.7 bpa the previous month. Many analysts had thought that the yield would be unchanged. Ending stocks of 1.938 bb were slightly higher than the average trade guess which may have limited gains.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought 39,746 contracts of corn as of November 15 which left them with a net long position of 22,043 contracts. This is the first time funds have held a net long position since August 2023.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with the front months higher but bull spread as November 2025 trades slightly lower and the majority of gains remain in the front month. Soybean meal is breaking its recent trend by trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower.

  •  The USDA report on Friday was bullish with the national yield estimate being sharply lowered to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. Trade was expecting a lower yield number but not such a large drop. Ending stocks fell by 80 mb which was friendly as well.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back just 2,114 contracts as of Nov 5 which left them net short 70,112 contracts. It is estimated that funds have bought back and additional 28,000 contracts since Nov 5.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower after rainfall totals in important HRW acres were better than expected. 

  • Wheat production seems to be struggling globally as StoneX has just revised their estimate for the Brazilian wheat crop to 7.5 mmt from 7.9 mmt the previous month. The Russian wheat crop is expected to be smaller as well, and wheat conditions in the US are poor.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back just 391 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them net short 30,781 contracts. They sold 4,920 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 14,080 contracts as of Nov 5.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-8 End of Day: Corn and Beans Settle Higher Following Today’s USDA Report; Wheat Mostly Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures continued their climb today for the sixth consecutive day, with help from friendly yield numbers from the USDA and continued strong demand. While December corn closed strong it failed to close above September’s high.

  • Soybeans closed higher on the day with modest gains, despite briefly dipping below unchanged. Much lower-than-expected US soybean ending stocks lent support, along with a third consecutive day of gains in soybean oil. However, lower soybean meal weighed on beans, as it continued to consolidate and closed lower.

  • The wheat complex closed mostly lower on the day, as all three classes remain in a sideways trend with little fresh bullish news to trade and a neutral USDA report that came in as expected.

  • To see updated US and South American temperature and precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures rose for the sixth consecutive day, driven by steady demand and a larger-than-expected reduction in corn yield in Friday’s USDA report. December corn ended the week up 16 ½ cents.

  • Corn futures used a larger than expected cut in corn yield in Friday’s USDA report and consistent demand to push prices higher for the third consecutive day. For the week, December corn finished 16 ½ cents higher.

  • The USDA lowered their projected corn yield by 0.7 bpa in Friday’s USDA crop production report to 183.1 bpa. The lower yield was a reflection of the dry weather at the end of the growing season and during harvest. 

  • Despite a good demand tone, the USDA left current demand projections unchanged given the early time of the marketing year. The reduced production lowered corn carryout projections to 1.938 billion bushels, which was slightly below analyst expectations and the fifth month in a row that carryout has declined.

  • Positive gains in the commodity markets may have been limited on talk the President-elect Trump was asking Robert Lighthizer to resume his role as head of US trade policy. Robert Lighthizer is known for having a tough stance when working with China and a supporter of trade tariffs.

  • On Friday, the USDA announced another flash corn sale of 200,480 mt (7.9 mb) to unknown destinations for the current marketing year.

Above: December corn tested the October high and retreated, signaling resistance in that area. A breakout above this level set the market up for a move toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. Below the market, If prices  retreat, support below the market may come in between 415 and 409.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following a volatile day of trade. The WASDE report turned out to be friendly for soybeans, which saw gains of as much as 18 cents, but prices faded into negative territory before recovering into the close. Soybean meal and oil continued their opposing trends with meal lower and soybean oil higher.

  • Today’s WASDE report saw soybean yields fall much more than expected to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. Total production fell to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 bb as a result, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 mb last month. Export demand was reduced by 25 mb despite strong recent export sales. World ending stocks were lowered as well and were below the lower range of analyst estimates.

  • After the USDA report, January soybeans rallied up to their 100-day moving average for the first time the beginning of June. While the following pullback may have been technical, it coincided with the timing of Donald Trump asking protectionist Robert Lighthizer to run the US trade policy. Lighthizer has been tough on China which may have concerned traders today and brought caution to the rally.

  • For the week, January soybeans gained 36 ½ cents to 1030 ¼ while new crop November 2025 gained 20 ¼ cents to 1052 ½. December soybean meal managed to gain $0.90 on the week, ending at $296.20 while December soybean oil gained 2.47 cents to 48.77 cents.

Above: The breakout above 1018 on Nov. 7, suggests the market has the potential to test the September highs near 1070. Before reaching that point, prices may encounter nearby resistance between 1044 and 1050. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near the 50-day moving average and again near 975.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a day of two-sided trade, wheat closed mixed in the Chicago contracts but posted losses across the board for Kansas City and Minneapolis. With little supportive news from the USDA and a rebound in the US Dollar index today, wheat had limited reasons to rally.

  • Today’s WASDE report was generally neutral for wheat, as expected. US 24/25 ending stocks were raised slightly from 812 million bushels to 815 mb. Global 23/24 carryout was also increased a touch, from 266.2 million metric tons to 266.3 mmt. For 24/25, global carryout was reduced a tad from 257.7 mmt to 257.6 mmt. Additionally, US wheat production was unchanged at 1.971 billion bushels and exports were also untouched at 825 mb.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is now 12.1% complete, an increase of 4.4% from a week ago. They left total production unchanged at 18.6 mmt, above today’s USDA estimate of 17.5 mmt, which was reduced from the October estimate of 18.0 mmt.

  • The USDA did lower their Brazilian wheat production estimate in today’s report, from 9.0 mmt in October to 8.5 mmt today. However, analyst StoneX is even lower with their projection of 7.5 mmt, compared to their previous guess of 7.9 mmt.

  • According to Russia’s prime minister, the country’s grain harvest has reached 128 mmt, with the total grain crop estimated at 130 mmt. The Russian agriculture minister also projected the 2024 wheat harvest at 83 mmt. However, today, the USDA estimated Russian wheat production slightly lower, at 81.5 mmt, with Russian wheat exports unchanged at 48 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Initial resistance lies near 580 with more significant resistance around 595 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market has largely been sideways since rallying off 561 support on Oct. 29. A close above 583 could set the market up to rally toward the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. Otherwise, a break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since late October Minneapolis wheat has mostly traded between 615 overhead and 595 down below. A close below 595 could lead to further weakness with prices trading towards the August low of 563, with potential support near 583. A rally above the 615 – 624 resistance area could set the market up for a rally towards the October highs with intermediate resistance near 637.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-8 Midday: Corn Rallies While Soybeans Break Ahead of Today’s WASDE

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 431 3.5
MAR ’25 444 3.5
DEC ’25 448.25 1.25
Soybeans
JAN ’25 1019.75 -6.5
MAR ’25 1032.5 -5
NOV ’25 1044.25 -4.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 574.75 3.25
MAR ’25 590.5 1.5
JUL ’25 607 1.5
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 570.25 1.25
MAR ’25 582.25 0.75
JUL ’25 600.25 1.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 603.25 0.75
MAR ’25 623.25 -0.5
SEP ’25 649.75 -1.25
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6022.25 18.5
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 70 -1.96
Gold
JAN ’25 2705.8 -12.4

  • The corn market is trading higher and near the top of its range as it follows through on yesterday’s strength with support from fresh export sales reported earlier today.

  • The USDA reported this morning that private exporters sold 200,480 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Today’s WASDE report is expected to show corn yields lowered slightly from last month to 183.7 bpa. Ending stocks for 24/25 are also expected to be lowered a little to 1.946 billion bushels from 1.999 bb last month.

  • Thursday the USDA released baseline projections for next year’s 25/26 corn crop, estimating planted acres at 92 million, with an ending stocks figure of 2.269 billion bushels.

  • Corn plantings in Argentina are projected to cover 6.3 million hectares (15.6 m acres) this year, down from 7.9 m hectares planted last year. The Exchange also estimates that the crop is 37% planted.

  • Soybeans are lower at midday and trading near session lows after failing to hold above the 50-day moving average. Soybean meal is also trading lower and near the bottom of its range, while soybean oil is mixed with December showing small losses, with the deferred months slightly higher.

  • Earlier today, the USDA reported that private exporters sold a total of 239,000 metric tons of soybeans to be delivered during the 24/25 marketing year. Of that total, 107,000 mt were sold to China, while 132,000 mt were sold to unknown destinations.

  • Today’s WASDE report is expected to show soybean yields being lowered from 53.1 bpa last month to 52.9 bpa, along with a drop in projected 24/25 soybean ending stocks from 550 million bushels to 535 mb.

  • Thursday the USDA released baseline projections for next year’s 25/26 soybean crop, estimating planted acres at 85 million, with ending stocks at 515 million bushels.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina’s soybean plantings to cover 18.6 million hectares (46m acres), down from 19 m hectares last year. The Exchange also estimates that soybean planting is 7.9% complete.

  • The wheat complex is trading near the upper end of the day’s range across all three classes as they continue to consolidate ahead of today’s USDA report.

  • Today’s WASDE report is expected to show US 24/25 ending stocks increased slightly from 812 mb in October to 813 mb.

  • Thursday the USDA released baseline projections for the next year’s 25/26 wheat crop, estimating planted acres at 46 million, and ending stocks at 828 million bushels.

  • StoneX revised its projections for Brazil’s 2024 wheat crop down to 7.5 million metric tons from its previous estimate of 7.9 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-08 Opening Update: Grains Mixed Ahead of WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 428.5 1
MAR ’25 441.25 0.75
DEC ’25 447 0

Soybeans

JAN ’25 1021 -5.25
MAR ’25 1033.25 -4.25
NOV ’25 1043.25 -5.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 570.25 -1.25
MAR ’25 586 -3
JUL ’25 602.25 -3.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 565 -4
MAR ’25 577.75 -3.75
JUL ’25 596 -2.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 597.5 -5
MAR ’25 620 -3.75
SEP ’25 650.25 -0.75

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5997.5 -6.25

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 71.15 -0.81

Gold

JAN ’25 2713.9 -4.3

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning ahead of the WASDE report which will be released at 11 central. Prices have been primarily supported by good recent export sales, but may see pressure from large ending stock numbers.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales over 108.9 mb which put total commitments at 1.04 billion bushels and is well ahead of last year’s pace. The recent increase in export sales are likely due to other countries stocking up before potential tariffs.

  • In Argentina, 37.2% of the corn crop is now reportedly planted which compares to 34.5% last year. Notably, farmers have planted less corn after last year’s leaf hopper plague with only 6.3 million hectares to be planted compared to 7.9 million last year.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower today after big gains yesterday that brought prices up to the 50-day moving average but have not been quite able to break through yet. If yields are reduced in today’s report it could cause prices to rally further.

  • Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher this morning as both products continue their recent trend. Soybean oil gained over 4% yesterday as trade anticipates tariffs on used Chinese cooking oil. The increase in crush has left us with a glut of bean meal.

  • Estimates for Today’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa in last months estimate. World ending stocks are expected to be slightly lowered.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago trading slightly higher while KC and Minneapolis are lower. Overall, wheat has been in a very tight trading range over the past month.

  • Wheat production seems to be struggling globally as StoneX has just revised their estimate for the Brazilian wheat crop to 7.5 mmt from 7.9 mmt the previous month. The Russian wheat crop is expected to be smaller as well, and wheat conditions in the US are poor.

  • Estimates for Today’s WASDE report see wheat US ending stocks rising slightly to 813 mb and world ending stocks falling slightly from last month’s estimate. Exports are not expected to be adjusted and there should be few changes overall.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-7 End of Day: Strong Export Sales of Soybeans, Soybean Oil and Corn Lift Futures; Wheat Ends Lower.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended slightly higher on the day after strong weekly export sales for the fourth consecutive week. Traders expect a slightly smaller US corn carryout number compared to last month on tomorrow’s WASDE report.

  • Soybean futures posted their largest daily gain since late September today after strong export sales and on the back of rallying soybean oil futures. Traders expect the USDA to cut this year’s soybean crop slightly in tomorrow’s WASDE, leading to a slight reduction in US ending stocks.

  • Massive weekly US soybean oil sales, the largest in over 10 years, sent soybean oil futures sharply higher on the day matching their largest daily gain since July. Soybean meal futures were also higher on the day.

  • Wheat futures ended the day slightly lower as late day strength in corn and soybean futures were not enough to pull wheat out of the red. More moisture is forecast over the next 7 days for major winter wheat producing areas of the US.

  • To see the updated US drought monitor as well as the seven-day US precipitation forecast, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished with marginal gains on the session, supported by above expectation weekly corn export sales and a soybean oil rally to pull soybeans strongly higher on the session. A negative wheat market and producer selling likely limited gains in the corn market on the session.

  • The USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Last week, U.S. exporters added 2.767 MMT of sales for the marketing year. This number exceeded the top end of expectations as Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market this morning. Unknown destination purchased 120,000 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the marketing year. The export pace has been very strong as total accumulated sales for the current marketing year are up 48% YOY and well ahead of expectations.

  • USDA will release the next round of Crop Production forecasts with the WASDE report on Friday morning.  Expectations are for corn yield to be decreased slightly to 183.7 bu/ac and corn carry out to be lowered by 50 mb to 1.946 billion bushels. Regarding yields, 8 of the 17 analysts surveyed for the report raised the corn yield expectation. The key will be any adjustments being made to demand this early in the marketing year.

Above: December corn once again found support near the 50-day moving average and rallied to the 425 resistance area and 200-day moving average. A close above this level could set a target of 434 ¼ for the next move. Should prices retreat and close below the 50-day ma, initial support may be found between 409 and the 100-day ma, with further support near 397.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher after rebounding off yesterday’s post-election sell-off and ended the day trading above their 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month. Export sales were strong, but the primary source of support came from soybean oil. Soybean meal ended slightly higher but was well behind the gains in bean oil.

  • December soybean oil gained 1.98 cents today or 4.27% ending at 48.32 cents, the highest level since early July. Support is thought to be coming from the hope that when Donald Trump takes office next year, he will increase tariffs on imported Chinese used cooking oil which would benefit soybean oil demand.

  • Today’s export sales report for soybeans was strong and showed sales at the higher end of the trade range. The USDA reported an increase of 74.9 mb of soybean export sales for 24/25, and last week’s export shipments of 89.1 mb were well above the 33.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and Egypt.

  • Trade estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. World ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board, despite strength in corn and especially soybeans. Recent rains for much of the nation’s midsection, along with more in forecast, may be weighing on wheat futures. Additionally, Matif wheat futures were the downside leader again today, as the US market followed their lower close.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and shipments last week fell below the 15.3 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. However, sales commitments for 24/25 are up 18% from a year ago at 510 mb.

  • Drought readings have improved for winter wheat growing areas after recent rains. According to the USDA, as of November 5, abought 57% of the estimated production area is experiencing drought. This is down 5% from a week ago. However, spring wheat areas actually worsened by 1% to 41% of the area in drought. Despite the improvements for winter wheat, the ratings are still generally high, and more rains will be needed to help ease the dryness.

  • For tomorrow’s WASDE report, there are not expected to be major changes for wheat. US 24/25 ending stocks are anticipated to be unchanged at 812 mb, along with no change for global 223/24 carryout at 266.2 mmt. For 24/25, global ending stocks are expected to drop slightly from 257.7 to 256.8 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Initial resistance lies near 580 with more significant resistance around 595 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market has largely been sideways since rallying off 561 support on Oct. 29. A close above 583 could set the market up to rally toward the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. Otherwise, a break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: So far, the 615 – 624 resistance area has held. A close above this area could set the market up for a rally towards the October highs with intermediate resistance near 637. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

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11-7 Midday: Soybeans Firm at Midday, Corn and Wheat Break Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 424.5 -1.75
MAR ’25 438 -1
DEC ’25 443.75 -2
Soybeans
JAN ’25 1009.25 5.5
MAR ’25 1020.25 5.5
NOV ’25 1035.75 3.75
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 568 -5.25
MAR ’25 586.25 -4.75
JUL ’25 602.25 -4.75
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 566.25 -7.75
MAR ’25 578.75 -7
JUL ’25 596.5 -6.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 600 -5.5
MAR ’25 621.25 -6.25
SEP ’25 649 -4
S&P 500
DEC ’24 5991.5 33.25
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 71.12 -0.12
Gold
JAN ’25 2716.1 27.6

  • Corn futures are weaker at midday on improving South America production prospects.

  • Weekly export sales announcements for corn came in above expectations at 112 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 1.040 bb, up 48% from a year ago.

  • South Dakota voters failed to pass a proposal to allow a carbon capture pipeline run through the state which will hamper the ethanol industry.

  • Algeria announced a tender for 240,000 mt of corn this morning.

  • Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show corn yields unchanged from last month at 183.8 bpa. Ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly to 1,946 mb.

  • Soybeans are firmer at midday on strong export sales announcements.

  • Weekly export sales announcements for soybeans came in at 75 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 1.040 bb, up 17% from a year ago.

  • Brazil’s October soybean exports were down 1.4 mmt from September to October at 4.71 mmt.

  • There is some chatter that China could be looking to shift soybean demand from US to Brazil.

  • Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show soybean yields being lowered from 53.1 bpa last month to 52.8 bpa.

  • Wheat is weaker at midday on rainfall in key growing parts of the US.

  • Weekly export sales announcements for wheat came in at 14 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 510 mb, up 18% from a year ago.

  • London Stock Exchange Group has raised their Argentine wheat production number to 18.20 mmt.

  • Russia’s Prime Minister has lowered Russia’s total grain crop from 130 mmt to 128 mmt.

  • Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show US ending stocks slightly raised from 812 mb last month to 813 mb this month.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-07 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher on Strong Export Sales

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 427.75 1.5
MAR ’25 440.5 1.5
DEC ’25 446.5 0.75

Soybeans

JAN ’25 1012.75 9
MAR ’25 1023.25 8.5
NOV ’25 1037.5 5.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 577.5 4.25
MAR ’25 595 4
JUL ’25 610.5 3.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 576 2
MAR ’25 588 2.25
JUL ’25 605.5 2.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 608 2.5
MAR ’25 630.5 3
SEP ’25 653 0

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5971.5 13.25

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 70.67 -0.57

Gold

JAN ’25 2685 -3.5

  • Corn is trading higher this morning following up on yesterday’s strength. Futures broke to the upside and will likely meet their next resistance level around $4.35 in December. Yesterday, funds were estimated to have bought back 18,000 contracts which would give them a net long position.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn in a range between 1,700k and 2,500k tons with an average guess of 2,120k tons. This would be slightly below last week’s sales, but exports have been very strong ahead of anticipated tariffs.

  • Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see corn ending stocks falling slightly from the previous estimate to 1,936 mb. Corn yield estimates are expected to be unchanged at 183.8 bpa. World ending stocks are also expected to be revised slightly lower.

  • Soybeans are trading higher again today after a sharp sell-off yesterday morning that then saw prices rebound. While the prospect of new Trump tariffs is bearish, countries will likely continue to stock up on grains until he takes office next year.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report sees soybean sales between 1,200k and 2,200k tons with an average guess of 1,766k tons which would be slightly below last week’s sales.

  • Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa in last months estimate. World ending stocks are expected to be slightly lowered.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way. Futures are likely following corn and soybeans as rainfall over US winter wheat areas has improved and may pressure prices.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 250k and 650k tons with an average guess of 455k tons. This would be slightly above last week’s sales. 

  • Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see wheat US ending stocks rising slightly to 813 mb and world ending stocks falling slightly from last month’s estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-6 End of Day: Grain Markets Shrug off Election Negativity to Close Well of the Lows

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • December corn closed at the top of its range and at the highest level since early October as technical buying, positive money flow, and strong demand kept buyers active following the election.

  • Soybeans settled mixed and near the top of the day’s nearly 26-cent range in the January contract, with support from sharply higher soybean oil, after initially trading sharply lower on election results.

  • Strong palm oil prices and concern regarding potential Trump tariffs on imported used cooking oil drove soybean oil prices to fresh 4-month highs. Meanwhile, December meal closed with only mild losses after printing fresh contract lows.

  • Despite the sharply higher US Dollar index, the wheat complex managed to trade well off the day’s lows, closing with relatively minor losses overall, supported by higher corn and Matif wheat.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • December corn futures closed at the top of the day’s trading range and posted its highest close in nearly a month as buyers stepped into the corn market. The markets in general saw a rebalancing after last night’s election results, and the corn market benefited from some positive money flowing into it.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn sales have remained strong, providing support to the corn market. A large portion of tomorrow’s sales are known from announced daily sales over the last week as Mexico and unknown destinations have been active buyers in the export market.

  • Corn export sales could remain friendly and support the market. The available export supplies of corn in Brazil are limited, keeping the US the most competitive export market. For the month of October, Brazil corn export shipments were 6.4 mmt (252 MB), down 24% from last year, but still above the average for the month. Only 2% of that corn went to China, but non-China corn exports were up 25% year over year.

  • Weekly ethanol production remained strong with production slightly higher week over week at 1.105 million barrels per day, up 5% over last year. A total of 111 mb of corn was used for production last week, which is still ahead of the target pace to reach USDA projections for the marketing year.

  • The US dollar surged to its highest point since early July as it traded sharply higher after the election results. If the dollar index can maintain its strength, that could be a headwind for higher corn and commodity prices in general.

Above: December corn once again found support near the 50-day moving average and rallied to the 425 resistance area and 200-day moving average. A close above this level could set a target of 434 ¼ for the next move. Should prices retreat and close below the 50-day ma, initial support may be found between 409 and the 100-day ma, with further support near 397.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front months trading higher and deferred contracts slightly lower. Soybeans recovered sharply from overnight lows that were up to 21 cents lower following the election results and concerns over future tariffs. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was sharply higher.

  • Trade estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. World ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly.

  • In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean crop is reportedly 53.3% planted, compared to 38% last week and 48% last year, according to Conab. This is the second-highest planting percentage for this time of year, despite an earlier drought that had caused some delays.

  • The Argentina’s soybean production is expected to be revised slightly higher to 51.3 mmt from 51.0 mmt last month, with Brazil’s production expected to be lowered to 168.6 mmt from 169.0 mmt last month. South American weather has remained rainy and beneficial for this time of year.

Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended mixed to slightly lower, showing resilience despite a strong surge in the US Dollar Index, which closed up 1.64 at 105.06, a level last seen in early July. Typically, wheat has an inverse relationship with the Dollar, making its performance, particularly with a close well off session lows, notable. Strength from higher US corn and Paris milling wheat likely supported today’s trade.

  • With the presidential election over, traders will likely focus to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s WASDE report. The Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut. Although no major changes are anticipated in US wheat numbers on Friday, global supply and demand figures could be a wildcard.

  • The US southern plains are expected to get another two or three inches of rain by the end of the weekend, which should go a long way in reducing drought conditions. However, more will be needed as traders will be keeping a close eye on updates to the drought monitor map.

  • Russian wheat stocks were at 38.7 mmt as of October 1, down 14% year-over-year, according to SovEcon. This decline is attributed to a combination of reduced production and record exports, which reached 15 mmt from July through September—a pace considered unsustainable.

  • The European Commission reported a 32% drop in EU soft wheat exports year-over-year as of November 3. Exports since the season’s start on July 1 reached 7.76 mmt, down from 11.33 mmt a year ago. Nigeria was the top buyer at 1.26 mmt, followed by Egypt and Morocco with smaller volumes.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Initial resistance lies near 580 with more significant resistance around 595 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market has largely been sideways since rallying off 561 support on Oct. 29. A close above 583 could set the market up to rally toward the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. Otherwise, a break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: So far, the 615 – 624 resistance area has held. A close above this area could set the market up for a rally towards the October highs with intermediate resistance near 637. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.