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11-15 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Following Yesterday’s Sell-Off

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 419.75 0.75
MAR ’25 432 1.25
DEC ’25 437 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 996.75 9.25
MAR ’25 1007.5 8.25
NOV ’25 1020.5 7

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 533.5 3.25
MAR ’25 551.5 3.25
JUL ’25 568 3

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 535.75 2.75
MAR ’25 549.25 2.5
JUL ’25 566.75 2.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 571.5 5
MAR ’25 589.75 4
SEP ’25 622 4.25

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5946.75 -31.5

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 68.32 -0.21

Gold

JAN ’25 2584.3 -0.6

  • Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning taking back some of yesterday’s losses. The weak price action yesterday seemed to stem more from lower soybeans and wheat as fundamentals have been good with strong export demand.

  • The range of trade estimates for today’s export sales report are relatively wide and are between 600k and 2,600k tons with an average guess of 1,635k tons. A number on the higher end of this range would not be surprising given the recent flash sales. This would compare to last year’s sales of 1,808k tons.

  • In Brazil, CONAB released its new estimates for grain production yesterday and it sees planted acreage falling very slightly by 9k hectares, but production increasing to 119.81 mmt thanks to an increase in yield expectations.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning as well following yesterday’s sharp sell-off that was likely a result of technical selling along with higher Brazilian production estimates. Soybean meal is slightly lower while soybean oil is trading higher. Today’s soybean crush report is expected to be strong at 193 mb.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 1,000k and 2,400k tons with an average guess of 1,773k tons. This would compare to 2.037k tons last week and 3,853k last year.

  • CONAB has revised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production higher at 166.14 mmt from 166.05 mmt last month. Planted area is expected to increase while yield estimates are unchanged.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Minneapolis leading the way up. Wheat futures have fallen every day since the election as the dollar has rallied making wheat more expensive to purchase from the US.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 250k and 650k tons with an average guess of 403k tons. This would compare to 375k tons last week and 176k the previous year.

  • In India, wheat production for 25/26 has been revised slightly lower to 112.4 mmt due to a decline in yield estimates in key northern producing states with warmer weather.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-14 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Lower as the Dollar Inches Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market settled just off its lows as technical selling pressed December corn to its largest loss in a month after breaking support.

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower, alongside both soybean meal and oil as concern for slowing demand to China and favorable South American weather grip the market.

  • Chicago wheat led the wheat complex lower again today, as rumors of potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the continued rise in the US dollar kept sellers active.

  • To see updated US precipitation forecast, Drought Monitor, and Percent of Winter Wheat in Drought, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. If you happened to miss our previous sales recommendations and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers jumped into the corn market, and commodities in general, as December corn posted its largest negative day since mid-October. The rising US dollar, and a technical break in price pressured the corn market for the session.

  • The US dollar continues to climb, trading at its highest level since November 2023. The strong dollar limits US export competitiveness and can trigger producer selling in Brazil and Argentina with the weak relationship of their currency versus the dollar. The increased selling pace makes more bushels available to the export market to compete with US supplies.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on tomorrow morning, delayed from today due to the Veterans Day holiday.  Expectations for new corn sales last week range from 1.25 – 2.6 mmt as corn export business has remained active.

  • Weekly ethanol production remains strong, with last week’s output rising to 1.113 million barrels per day — above expectations and marking a marketing-year high. A total of 112 mb of corn was used for ethanol production last week, putting usage ahead of USDA targets.

  • The corn market may stay pressured as the month of November brings December options expiration, and the pricing window for basis and price later contracts. As producers make decisions on these positions, it could lead to selling pressure and volatility in the corn market.

Above: December corn continues to see resistance in the 435 area. A close above this level could put the market in position to rally toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. If prices retreat, support below the market may lie between 415 and 409.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. For those that missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. If you happen to have capital needs, consider making additional sales into price strength. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after trading higher overnight, slipping steadily throughout the day. January soybeans are now trading just 14 cents above their contract low, during a period when prices often begin to rise toward year-end. Both soybean meal and oil also ended the day lower.

  • Soybean meal prices remain under pressure as increased crushing for oil has boosted supplies, while favorable weather forecasts for South America, major exporters of the product, have also weighed on the market. The front month December meal contract has now traded to its lowest point since August 2020.

  • This morning the USDA reported a flash sale showing that private exporters sold 176,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year.

  • NOPA will release October crush totals on Friday, with expectations for a record month. Estimates suggest 196.84 mb of soybeans were crushed, which, if realized, would be up 11% from September and 3.7% from October 2023. Soybean oil stocks are also forecasted to increase after hitting record lows in September.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Friday morning, delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday. Expectations for new soybean sales last week range from 1.0 to 2.2 mmt. Trends will be closely watched as weekly sales have declined steadily after peaking a few weeks ago.

Above: Resistance in the 1044-1050 area held with the market reversal to the downside, suggesting a potential retreat toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • It was another down day for wheat, along with the rest of the grain complex. Part of the weakness may stem from talk about potential peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the US Dollar Index rose again to a one-year high, keeping pressure on US commodity markets.

  • According to Reuters, Australia may produce about 1 mmt more wheat than previously estimated, with harvest 15%-20% complete and showing high yields. Frost damage from September appears less severe than anticipated. Last year’s wheat harvest was 26 mmt, and the USDA projects 32 mmt this year, making Australia the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter.

  • SovEcon is reported to have lowered their estimate of Russian 2024 wheat production by 0.1 mmt to 81.4 mmt. However, they also increased their 2025 estimate by 1.5 mmt to 81.6 mmt.

  • Traders recently received updated data from South America: CONAB lowered Brazil’s wheat crop estimate by 0.15 mmt to 8.11 mmt, while the Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina’s forecast by 0.7 mmt to 18.8 mmt (the USDA projects 17.5 mmt). The Brazilian wheat harvest is about 80% complete, and Argentina’s is 15% complete.

  • Recent rains have caused drought readings to fall significantly for winter wheat. According to the USDA, as of November 12, about 43% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, down from 57% a week ago. However, spring wheat area in drought increased by 1% from last week to 42%.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s decline since breaking through support suggests that prices may be poised to test the 521 – 514 support area near the August low. Should prices turn around, heavy overhead resistance remains between 580 and 586.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s close below 547 support suggests prices may be at risk of testing major support near the 527 ¼ August low.  A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close below 583 in the December contract puts the market at risk of trading down towards major support near the August low of 563. If a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher, heavy resistance remains between 615 and 624.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

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11-14 Midday: Grain Market Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 421.25 -5.25
MAR ’25 432.75 -4.75
DEC ’25 438.25 -2
Soybeans
JAN ’25 994.25 -13.5
MAR ’25 1006.25 -12.25
NOV ’25 1017.5 -11
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 532.75 -8.25
MAR ’25 549.75 -6.75
JUL ’25 567.25 -7
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 536.25 -4.5
MAR ’25 549 -5.75
JUL ’25 566 -7
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 570.75 -0.25
MAR ’25 590.25 -3
SEP ’25 622.75 -4.25
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6004.5 -11.5
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 68.61 0.35
Gold
JAN ’25 2592 -6.4

  • Corn is weaker at midday on a lower wheat market and higher US dollar.

  • Yesterday, the USDA announced a sale of 401,357 mt of US corn to Mexico and another 290,820 mt sold to unknown destinations.

  • Conab raised their Brazilian corn crop estimate slightly from 119.74 mmt last month to 119.82 mmt.

  • Soybeans are lower at midday on reports of the possibility of lower exports to China.

  • Soybean oil continues to see a pullback after President-elect Trump appointed Lee Zeldin to head the EPA. Zeldin may not be as friendly towards biofuels as some originally thought.  

  • The USDA confirmed a sale totaling 176,000 mt of US soybeans to unknown destinations.

  • Conab raised their Brazilian soybean crop estimate slightly from 166.05 mmt last month to 166.14 mmt. They also significantly raised their soybean export number from 92.4 mmt to 98 mmt.

  • Wheat futures are lower at midday on rainfall prospects and potential for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

  • Conab lowered their Brazilian wheat crop from 8.26 mmt last month to 8.11 mmt.

  • Agrimer estimates that French SRW exports will be around 9.9 mmt, down from 10.03 last month and 40.5% lower than last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-14 Opening Update: Grains Mixed in Quiet Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 426.25 -0.25
MAR ’25 437 -0.5
DEC ’25 440.5 0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 1010 2.25
MAR ’25 1020.5 2
NOV ’25 1029 0.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 538 -3
MAR ’25 553.25 -3.25
JUL ’25 570 -4.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 538.5 -2.25
MAR ’25 552 -2.75
JUL ’25 570.5 -2.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 572 1
MAR ’25 593 -0.25
SEP ’25 627 0

S&P 500

DEC ’24 6022.25 6.25

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 68.6 0.34

Gold

JAN ’25 2571.3 -27.1

  • Corn futures are mixed to start the day with the front months trading slightly lower while December 2025 corn trades slightly higher. Apart from a good batch of flash sales yesterday morning, there has not been much news in corn which has caused it to follow wheat lower.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said that 401,357 mt of corn was sold to Mexico for 24/25, and another 290,820 mt were sold to unknown destinations. It will be important to find out if unknown means China.

  • Estimates for today’s ethanol report are between 1.065 and 1.106 million barrels per day which would be another strong week and point to good domestic demand.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher but are also quiet this morning with small gains that have backed off higher overnight prices. Commodities have been under pressure since the dollar began sharply rallying after Donald Trump was announced as the next president. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.

  • In Argentina, improved soil moisture levels have caused farmers to increase their planted soybean area to 17.9 million hectares which is up 1.1% from last month. Planting is reportedly 20% complete, and production estimates are around 53 mmt.

  • While soybean oil is higher this morning, it has reversed significantly off its highs after Trump announced pick Lee Zeldin, who is not a supporter of renewable energies, to head the EPA.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with the Chicago and KC contracts trading lower while Minneapolis is slightly higher. Rainfall in the southern Plains has been the main bearish factor but has opened the door to new technical selling.

  • In France, the outlook for wheat exports has been cut to 9.9 mmt from 10.03 mmt the previous month after seeing a decline in non-EU sakes. These exports would be 40.5% lower than the previous season.

  • In India, wheat production for 25/26 has been revised slightly lower to 112.4 mmt due to a decline in yield estimates in key northern producing states with warmer weather.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-13 End of Day: Grain Markets Drift Lower Again

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market slid lower for the third day in a row, pressured by weakness in the wheat market and seasonal weakness despite the report of solid flash sales.

  • With a lack of fresh export sales and pressure from lower soybean meal and oil, the soybean market closed with small losses after finding support near its 20-day moving average.

  • Chicago wheat led the wheat complex lower as the USDA reported improved conditions for the winter wheat crop. Expectations for more rain, combined with lower Matif wheat futures and a stronger US dollar, added to the weakness.

  • To see updated US and South American weather forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. If you happened to miss our previous sales recommendations and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded lower for the third consecutive day as weakness in the wheat market and seasonal selling pressure outweighed a friendly daily export sale announcement.

  • The USDA announced a pair of corn export sales this morning. Mexico purchased 401,357 mt (15.8 mb) of corn, and unknown destinations added 290,820 mt (11.5 mb), with both sales for the current marketing year.

  • On the weekly crop progress numbers released on Tuesday, the current corn harvest is estimated to be 95% complete, versus 86% a year ago and 84% for the 5-year average.

  • Grain markets have been under pressure reacting to the potential appointees to positions in the Trump administration. It was announced on Tuesday the Former congressmen Lee Zeldon was tabbed to the head of the EPA. As a congressman, Rep. Zeldin has a history of supporting legislation that could limit the impact of biofuels.

  • The corn market could have limited upside as the month of November brings December options expiration, and the pricing window for basis or price later contracts. As producers make decisions on these positions, it could lead to selling pressure and volatility in the corn market.

  • U.S. dollar continues to climb, trading at its highest levels since May. The strong dollar limited U.S. export competitiveness and can trigger producer selling in Brazil and Argentina with the weak relationship of foreign currency versus the dollar.

Above: December corn continues to see resistance in the 435 area. A close above this level could put the market in position to rally toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. If prices retreat, support below the market may lie between 415 and 409.

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. For those that missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. If you happen to have capital needs, consider making additional sales into price strength. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day but found support near the 20-day moving average, bouncing off their lows to end with a small loss. The recent downtrend may stem from a lack of flash sales after several active weeks. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with soybean oil posting the larger loss.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the soybean crop at 96% harvested. This compares to 94% last week, the 5-year average of 91%, and was within the range of average trade guesses. With harvest virtually complete, trade will look for a potential post-harvest rally.

  • In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7, according to AgRural. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays. Production is expected to reach 168.3 mmt.

  • China’s COFCO estimates that the country’s soybean imports may drop by 9.5% for the 24/25 marketing year. Officials also stated that Chinese buyers stockpiled soybeans ahead of the US elections out of concern for deteriorating relations with the US.

Above: The reversal in January soybeans suggests that the 1044–1050 resistance area remains intact, with prices potentially retreating toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. Psychological support could emerge around the 1000 level before that. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1050 could lead to a test of the 1070 area.

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat again posted double-digit losses in the Chicago futures, with smaller losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Sharply lower Matif wheat futures offered no support to the U.S. market, nor did another move higher in the US Dollar. Additionally, improvements in winter wheat crop conditions contributed to the weakness.

  • According to the USDA, as of November 10, 91% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted, slightly behind last year’s 92% pace and the 93% average. Of the planted crop, 76% has emerged, also trailing last year and the average, both at 79%. Recent rains improved conditions, raising the good-to-excellent rating by 3% from last week to 44%. Additional moisture expected over the next week could further boost conditions.

  • Russia’s wheat export values are reportedly at $226 per mt for December and $230 for January. These prices fall well below the government-suggested minimum, maintaining pressure on the export market. Additionally, EU and Argentina FOB values are now close to Russia’s, which is also bearish for the US market.

  • On a bullish note, India’s domestic wheat prices have hit a record high due to strong demand and limited supply. In September, the Indian government reduced the amount of stocks that traders and millers could hold to curb prices. However, this measure appears to have been less effective than anticipated, and the government may need to release wheat from its reserves to control prices. This situation also reinforces the possibility that India may need to become a net wheat importer in the future.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s decline since breaking through support suggests that prices may be poised to test the 521 – 514 support area near the August low. Should prices turn around, heavy overhead resistance remains between 580 and 586.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s close below 547 support suggests prices may be at risk of testing major support near the 527 ¼ August low.  A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close below 583 in the December contract puts the market at risk of trading down towards major support near the August low of 563. If a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher, heavy resistance remains between 615 and 624.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-13 Midday: Grain Markets Continue Their Slide at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 426 -2.5
MAR ’25 436.75 -3.5
DEC ’25 439.25 -3.5
Soybeans
JAN ’25 1003.75 -6.75
MAR ’25 1014.25 -8.25
NOV ’25 1021.75 -10
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 539.25 -13
MAR ’25 554.5 -12.5
JUL ’25 571.75 -13
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 539.5 -7
MAR ’25 552.25 -8.5
JUL ’25 570.25 -9
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 571.25 -6.5
MAR ’25 593.75 -6.75
SEP ’25 628.75 -3.5
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6017.75 4.75
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 68.27 0.3
Gold
JAN ’25 2623.7 5.1

  • The corn market is feeling pressure from lower wheat and soybeans as it trades below support from earlier this week. Slow producer selling and strong demand are supportive for the December contract versus the deferred contracts.

  • The USDA reported private export sales of corn totaling 692,177 mt for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Of that total, 401,357 mt were sold to Mexico. The other 290,820 mt were sold to unknown destinations.

  • The USDA reported that as of Sunday, Nov. 10, the corn harvest was 95% complete. This is well ahead of last year’s pace of 86% complete, and 11% ahead of the 5-year average.

  • Conab is expected to release its updated crop estimates for the 24/25 season on Thursday. The trade expects Brazil’s corn production to come in at 123.5 mmt, 3.8 mmt higher than its last projection.

  • Soybeans are trading lower across the board at midday, weighed down by further declines in both soybean meal and oil. Processors’ need to keep supply lines full may be supporting nearby contracts versus the deferred.

  • The USDA reported the soybean harvest to be 96% complete as of Sunday, Nov. 10. With harvest nearly done, this will likely be the final crop progress report of the year.

  • Conab is expected to release its updated crop estimates for the 24/25 season on Thursday. The trade expects Brazil’s soybean production to be near 168.3 mmt, with estimates ranging between 166.2 mmt and 171.8 mmt.

  • China’s COFCO estimates that the country’s soybean imports may drop by 9.5% for the 24/25 marketing year. Officials also stated that Chinese buyers stockpiled soybeans ahead of the US elections out of concern for deteriorating relations with the US.

  • Chicago wheat is leading the wheat complex lower at midday, pressured by improved crop conditions and expectations of additional moisture in the Plains states.

  • The USDA reported an increase in winter wheat crop conditions in this week’s crop progress report. The good to excellent categories improved 3% from the week prior to 44%, due to the increased moisture.

  • In its first projection, SovEcon pegged Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop at 21.1 mmt, below the 5-year average.

  • As of Nov. 10, the EU’s wheat exports for the current season that started July 1, dropped 29% to 8.7 mmt, from 12.3 mmt exported by this time last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-13 Opening Update: Grains Mostly Lower Wednesday AM

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 428.5 0
MAR ’25 440.5 0.25
DEC ’25 442.25 -0.5

Soybeans

JAN ’25 1009 -1.5
MAR ’25 1021.5 -1
NOV ’25 1030.25 -1.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 548 -4.25
MAR ’25 563.5 -3.5
JUL ’25 581.25 -3.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 543.5 -3
MAR ’25 557.5 -3.25
JUL ’25 575.75 -3.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 575.5 -2.25
MAR ’25 598 -2.5
SEP ’25 631.5 -0.75

S&P 500

DEC ’24 6001.25 -11.75

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 67.98 0.01

Gold

JAN ’25 2630.4 11.8

  • Corn futures are trading both sides of unchanged this morning and have remained in a tight range so far this week just below Friday’s high. 

  • Export inspections are now running 31% ahead of last year’s pace. Another daily flash sale announcement to Mexico yesterday and tightening basis levels around the Corn Belt are all friendly signs to the corn market.

  • The USDA reported corn harvest was 95% complete as of Sunday. This is 9% ahead of last year’s pace and 11% ahead of the 5-year average.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a tough start to the week. Lower world vegetable oil prices as they retreat from recently overbought conditions have been a weight on US soybean oil futures as well as soybeans. 

  • With US soybean prices remaining at a steep discount to Brazilian soybean futures for export though the end of the year, US soybean exports should find favor from world soybean buyers. 

  • The USDA reported harvest progress was 96% complete as of Sunday. This is likely the final crop progress report for soybeans of the year. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after breaking nearby support to start the week.

  • US winter wheat conditions improved by 3% last week to come in at 44% good to excellent. Last week’s rains have improved conditions, recent price action is likely reflecting this beneficial moisture. 

  • EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 have totaled 8.7 mmt, this compares to 12.3 mmt a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-12 End of Day: Markets Close Lower Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market closed near the bottom of the day’s range, with relatively small losses as it continues to consolidate inside Friday’s trading range. Selling pressure came from lower wheat and soybeans, and a higher US dollar.

  • Soybeans followed through on Monday’s weak close from technical selling and sharply lower soybean oil, which has reversed its recent up trend.

  • Soybean oil followed palm oil lower, which lost 3.2% overnight after reaching 2 ½ year highs. Meal also closed down on the day as it continues to drift sideways to lower.

  • The wheat complex settled with double-digit losses across the board after rejecting Monday’s late day strength. Expectations of more rain in the US Plains, carryover weakness from lower Matif wheat, and a rising US Dollar Index contributed to the weakness.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower for the second straight session, pressured by selling momentum across the soybean and wheat markets, as the US dollar remains strong.

  • The US dollar continued its breakout move after the election, trading higher in four of the past five sessions and reaching its highest level since June. The strong dollar has triggered some producer selling in Brazil and Argentina and may have weakened the competitiveness of US grains against global competition.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspection for corn today.  Inspections last week totaled 793,012 mt (31.2 mb), down slightly from the previous week’s total.  Total inspections are now at 324 mb, up 31% over last year.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market this morning.  Mexico purchased 110,500 mt (4.35 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.

  • The weekly crop progress report will be released later this afternoon, delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday. The market expects the corn harvest to be nearly 95% complete as producers wrap up this year’s work.

Above: December corn continues to see resistance in the 435 area. A close above this level could put the market in position to rally toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. If prices retreat, support below the market may lie between 415 and 409.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day, likely due to technical selling after failing to close above the 100-day moving average twice in a row. Most of today’s pressure came from sharply lower soybean oil, which reversed the recent trend of soybean oil gains while meal slipped. However, with meal prices so low, demand may now be kicking in.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 83.7 mb for the week ending November 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 560 mb, which is up 6% from this point last year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.825 bb for 24/25 which would be up 7% from last year.

  • In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7, according to AgRural. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays.

  • Since the election results were announced, there has been a sharp rise in the US dollar. Many of the export sales seen by the US ahead of the election are now being diverted to South America as soybeans there have become cheaper as a result of the difference between the US Dollar and Brazilian Real.

Above: The reversal in January soybeans suggests that the 1044–1050 resistance area remains intact, with prices potentially retreating toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. Psychological support could emerge around the 1000 level before that. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1044 could lead to a test of the 1070 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit losses across all three futures classes. Pressure again came from a lower close for Matif wheat, another rise in the US Dollar Index, and spillover weakness from lower corn and soybeans. Additional precipitation expected in the US Plains states over the next week or so also added weight to the wheat complex.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 12.8 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 372 mb, up 40% from last year. This is ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace; they project total wheat exports at 825 mb, an increase of 17% from the previous year.

  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, winter grain plantings are 96.3% complete, with about 5 million hectares sown out of the expected 5.19 million. Of that total, wheat is reportedly planted on 4.4 million hectares, or 97.2% of the estimated area. Notably, around 95% of Ukraine’s wheat output is winter wheat.

  • Wheat prices in Brazil reportedly increased last week, partly due to speculation that the government might make domestic purchases. Current prices are said to be below the government’s minimum thresholds of 78.51 BRL per 60 kg bag in the south and 80.00 BRL in other regions. The federal government has indicated it may purchase up to 200,000 mt of wheat from producers in Rio Grande do Sul.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s apparent rejection of the potential reversal on Nov. 11 and close near 552, suggests that lower prices may be ahead in the near term, though they may find support in the 521 – 514 area. Should the market turn around, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586 before they can continue to higher.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s close below 547 support suggests prices may be at risk of testing major support near the 527 ¼ August low.  A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close below 583 in the December contract puts the market at risk of trading down towards major support near the August low of 563. If a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher, heavy resistance remains between 615 and 624.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil, N. Argentina 2- week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-12 Midday: Grains Drift Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 429.5 -0.5
MAR ’25 440.75 -2
DEC ’25 441.25 -4.5
Soybeans
JAN ’25 1010.75 -11.5
MAR ’25 1023 -12.25
NOV ’25 1030.5 -14.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 557 -8.5
MAR ’25 571.25 -9.25
JUL ’25 588.25 -10
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 550.5 -9
MAR ’25 564 -9
JUL ’25 582.25 -9.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 585.25 -6.75
MAR ’25 606 -6.25
SEP ’25 637.5 -5.75
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6018.25 -13.5
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 67.74 -0.18
Gold
JAN ’25 2620.8 -9.1

  • Corn reverses lower at midday following the rest of the grain market. December corn is looking at a second straight day of lower trading after running into some resistance around the 430 level.

  • Brazil’s first corn crop planting is estimated to be 72% complete, compared to 59% last week and 76% a year ago.

  • France has increased their corn production estimate from 14.5 mmt last month to 14.6 mmt.

  • The USDA confirmed a sale of 110,500 mt of US corn for delivery to Mexico in 24/25.

  • Algeria tendered for 240,000 mt of corn overnight thought to be from South America origin.

  • Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday on fear of a potential trade war between US and China leading to weakness in demand. Sharply lower soybean oil is also adding pressure to the market.

  • It is reported that Brazil’s soybean planting has reached 67% compared to 54% last week.

  • Central and Northern Brazil continue to see favorable weather conditions, adding fuel to large production totals and pressuring the soybean market.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading lower at midday on increased farmer selling due to rainfall in key growing parts of the US and a higher US dollar.

  • Winter wheat ratings are expected to see additional improvements in this afternoon’s crop progress report after rainfall in the Plains states. Good-to-excellent ratings currently sit at 45%.

  • Ukraine’s winter wheat plantings are 96% complete according to the agricultural ministry. Of that total 4.4 hectares (10.9 million acres) of winter wheat has been planted, 97% of the expected area.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-12 Opening Update: Corn Trading Slightly Higher, Soybeans and Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 431.5 1.5
MAR ’25 443.75 1
DEC ’25 445.5 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 1013 -9.25
MAR ’25 1025 -10.25
NOV ’25 1034.75 -10.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 565.25 -0.25
MAR ’25 580.5 0
JUL ’25 599 0.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 556.5 -3
MAR ’25 570 -3
JUL ’25 588.75 -2.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 591.25 -0.75
MAR ’25 612 -0.25
SEP ’25 648 4.75

S&P 500

DEC ’24 6022.75 -9

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 68.19 0.27

Gold

JAN ’25 2619.7 -10.2

  • Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning but have been quiet so far this week and have not taken out last Friday’s high. Basis levels improved again yesterday, and with the move higher in prices, producers have a chance to make decent cash sales.

  • Export inspections today are expected to be strong again for corn as demand has been very good recently. Some traders were discouraged that the USDA did not increase demand in last week’s WASDE report, but the fact that it was not lowered like production was is a good sign.

  • In France, production estimates for the corn crop have been increased to 14.6 mmt from 14.5 mmt last month despite heavy rains throughout harvest. This production would be 10% above the 5-year average if realized.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a loss of around 8 cents yesterday. The fundamental picture has not changed much, and it should be noted that January soybeans failed at the 200-day moving average two days in a row which could point to a technical sell-off.

  • Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning, but soybean oil is posting larger losses. This is in contrast to the recent trend in which soybean meal was selling off while soybean oil was rallying. It is possible that soybean meal simply got too cheap which incentivized buyers.

  • In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC leading the way lower. Yesterday, wheat futures took a sharp dive and were down nearly 20 cents before they recovered into the end of day for a more mild loss. 

  • Yesterday’s sell-0ff may have kicked off as a result of widespread rains over the driest HRW wheat areas over the weekend, but some demand kicked in at those lower prices bringing futures back within their recent trading range.

  • In Ukraine, Astarta’s winter wheat crop is now completely planted. Over 46k hectares of winter wheat were planted which is down 6.1% from last year’s planting. Hectares may have been taken from winter wheat and given to rapeseeed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.