|

11-25 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed; Corn and Wheat Lower, Beans Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Lower trade in the neighboring wheat markets and sharply lower crude oil kept sellers engaged in the corn market, which closed near the low end of the day’s range and lower for the third consecutive day.

  • A drier forecast in Brazil and higher soybean meal lent support to the soybean market, which closed off session highs but higher for the second day in a row.

  • Soybean meal broke out to the upside of its congestion range as traders covered short positions, while soybean oil continued its downward trend on long liquidation and lower crude oil prices.

  • Sharp declines in Matif wheat, coupled with minimal news and much-needed rainfall in the Black Sea region, pressured the wheat complex lower, though prices partially recovered to settle well off session lows.

  • To see the updated US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and South American one-week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished the session with mild losses after being led lower by selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets. The market has traded lower for the past three sessions.

  • Corn futures may face increased volatility this week, with December First Notice Day on Friday likely driving activity and money flow amid shortened trading hours following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections this morning. Last week, US exporters shipped 903,000 mt (35.6 mb) of corn. Total inspections for the marketing year are at 395 mb, up 38% from last year.

  • Mexico entered the corn export market with a flash sale, purchasing 454,090 mt (17.9 mb) of corn, split between 364,792 mt (14.4 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year and 89,298 mt (3.5 mb) for 25/26.

  • Today’s sharp drop in crude oil prices will continue to pressure ethanol margins, possibly limiting demand. Talk of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East triggered a 3% drop in front-end crude oil prices.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract remains between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. If prices drift lower, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 4,639 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net long 114,628 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, supported by soybean meal, while soybean oil slipped in a reversal of the meal-oil spread. This marked the second consecutive higher close for soybeans, though the January contract remains just 12 cents above its low. A slightly drier 15-day forecast for Brazil may have lent support.

  • Soybean export inspections totaled 77.2 mb for the week ending November 21, which was the high end of trade expectations. The USDA projects 1.825 bb in exports for 24/25, up 7% from last year.

  • In Brazil, AgRural estimates that soybean planting for 24/25 is 86% complete as of last Thursday, compared to 74% last year. Weather has been favorable, though the 15-day forecast is slightly drier.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as soybean sellers, adding 13,165 contracts to their net short position, now at 67,701 contracts as of November 19. Since then, funds are estimated to have sold another 7,000 contracts.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should a bullish story turn prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,165 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 67,701 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and KC led the wheat complex lower, with weakness likely stemming from reports of much-needed rain in the Black Sea region and a quiet news front in the area, though tensions remain high.

  • Sharp declines in Paris milling wheat also contributed to the day’s losses.

  • Weekly Export Inspections showed that 361,000 mt of wheat were inspected for export through Nov. 21. The print was near the top end of expectations, putting year-to-date totals 31% ahead of last year.

  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry stated the country’s total grain harvest declined 3.8% year over year to 53.4 mmt. Of this total, 22.4 mmt is wheat, which is just under the 22.5 mmt harvested last year.

  • Russia is expected to export a total of 55-60 mmt of grain for this season that began July 1. This is down from the 72 mmt total the country exported last year, which included 54.1 mmt of wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat remains near key moving averages between 578–586, with a close above 586 potentially targeting a move toward 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,239 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 51,546 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,277 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 29,375 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, November 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,578 contracts between November 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 30,002 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

11-25 Midday: Beans Trade Higher at Midday, While Feed Grains Trade Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 423.75 -1.75
MAR ’25 433 -2.25
DEC ’25 433.75 -2.5
Soybeans
JAN ’25 985 1.5
MAR ’25 993.75 1.5
NOV ’25 1010 1.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 530 -14.25
MAR ’25 551 -13.75
JUL ’25 570 -12.75
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 543 -11.25
MAR ’25 553.5 -12
JUL ’25 568.5 -11.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 581.25 -4.75
MAR ’25 595 -6.5
SEP ’25 622.5 -6.5
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6013.75 26.75
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 69 -2.24
Gold
JAN ’25 2646.6 -78.3

  • The corn market is trading near the low end of a tight 4-cent range, extending Friday’s weakness, with additional pressure from lower trade in the wheat complex.

  • Today the USDA reported private export sales of corn totaling 454,090 mt for delivery to Mexico. Of this, 364,792 mt are for the 24/25 marketing year, and 89,298 mt are for 25/26.

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of corn as of November 19, adding 4,639 contracts and increasing their net long position to 114,628 contracts, the highest since March 2023.

  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported this year’s corn harvest is 5% behind last year’s pace, with 23.6 mmt harvested by the third week of November compared to 24.9 mmt a year ago.

  • The soybean market remains firm at midday, supported by sharply higher soybean meal, likely driven by short covering. Meanwhile, soybean oil has turned sharply lower, pressured by weaker crude oil, which adds overhead resistance to soybeans as traders continue to liquidate long positions

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 13,165 soybean contracts in the week ending November 19, increasing their net short position to 67,701 contracts.

  • In Brazil, 24/25 soybean planting reached 86% of expected areas as of last Thursday, up from 74% at the same time last year. Weather has remained favorable, with scattered showers across the country.

  • The wheat complex continues to trade lower to start the week as traders press the market amid a lack of major Black Sea news.

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that managed funds sold 6,239 contracts of Chicago wheat, increasing their net short position to 51,546 contracts.

  • IKAR raised its estimate for Russia’s total grain harvest from 124.5 mmt to 125 mmt, while the Russian Deputy Prime Minister stated that total grain exports would be near 60 mmt, down from last year’s 72 mmt, with total wheat production projected at 83 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

11-25 Opening Update: Grains Mixed, Soybeans Higher, Corn and Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 424 -1.5
MAR ’25 433.5 -1.75
DEC ’25 434.5 -1.75

Soybeans

JAN ’25 986.25 2.75
MAR ’25 995 2.75
NOV ’25 1011.75 3.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 535.75 -8.5
MAR ’25 557 -7.75
JUL ’25 575 -7.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 546.5 -7.75
MAR ’25 556.75 -8.75
JUL ’25 571.75 -8.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 581.5 -4.5
MAR ’25 596.5 -5
SEP ’25 625 -4

S&P 500

DEC ’24 6016.25 29.25

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 71.12 -0.12

Gold

JAN ’25 2695.2 -29.7

  • Corn is trading lower this morning and is likely being pulled down by lower wheat prices. There has not been much fresh news recently, but this week, export inspections, ethanol grind, and export sales will be released. The markets will be closed on Thanksgiving.

  • In Ukraine, this year’s corn harvest has fallen by 5% year over year to 23.6 mmt so far. This is down from 24.9 mmt at the same time last year. The wheat harvest is on par with last year and only corn is affected.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn but slowing down a bit. They bought 4,639 contracts of corn which increased their net long position to 114,628 contracts, the highest level since March 2023.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning thanks to support from both soybean meal and oil after a recovery in palm oil. Soybean futures are very oversold and could see renewed demand at this cheap prices.

  • In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean planting has hit 86% of expected areas as of last Thursday which compares to 74% last year at this time. Weather has remained favorable with scattered showers across the country.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans. They sold an additional 13,165 contracts which increased their net short position to 67,701 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as wheat leads the grain complex lower. A lack of escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend may be pressuring prices along with improved winter wheat conditions in the US.

  • Russia’s deputy prime minister has estimated that the country’s current marketing year grain exports are between 55 to 60 mmt compared to last year’s 72 mmt. Total Russian wheat production is estimated at 83 mmt.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 6,239 contracts which increased their net short position to 51,546 contracts. They sold 4,277 contracts of KC wheat which increased that net short position to 29,375 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

11-22 End of Day: Soybeans Rebound into the Weekend, While Corn and Wheat Drift Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Heavy open interest surrounding the 425 and neighboring December corn strike prices, and concerns of slowing demand likely limited price action in the corn market, which closed the day with minor losses.

  • The soybean market bucked the trend of lower corn and wheat to close higher on the day as the January contract found support just above its contract lows and traders covered short positions.

  • Soybean oil continued its downward trend to close lower, pressured by weaker world veg oil markets, while meal rebounded from yesterday’s losses as it continues to consolidate near multi-year lows.

  • With little fresh bullish news to support prices, the wheat complex closed mid-range and lower in all three classes as traders squared positions and took profits ahead of the weekend.

  • To see the updated US and South American one week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished softer, with potentially slowing demand and options expiration limiting prices. On weekly charts, corn remains in a consolidation pattern, finishing 1 ½ cents higher for the week.

  • December corn options expired today, and there was a large amount of open interest between the 420, 425, and 430 strike prices for both calls and puts, which seemed to hold prices throughout the week.

  • Concerns about slowing demand may weigh on the corn market heading into year-end. While export sales have been strong early in the marketing year, the USDA has not announced a flash sale since Nov. 13. Additionally, weekly ethanol production declined for the first time in weeks as higher corn prices and lower energy prices squeezed profit margins.

  • The corn market may face increased volatility next week, with December First Notice Day on Friday likely driving activity and money flow amid shortened trading hours following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract remains between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher, snapping a three-day losing streak. January soybeans hit a fresh low overnight before recovering, likely on fund short covering ahead of the weekend. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil continued to track lower palm oil.

  • The USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, following three separate sales yesterday to China, unknown destinations, and the Philippines.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed soybean sales at 68.3 mb, at the high end of expectations. Top buyers were China, Mexico, and the Netherlands, bringing year-to-date commitments to 1.161 billion bushels, up 9% from last year versus the USDA’s 8% estimate.

  • South American weather remains largely favorable for crop development and planting progress. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 35.8% of the soybean crop is planted, up from 20.1% last week.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should a bullish story turn prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex closed lower across the board as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend, with little fresh bullish news from the Black Sea region and reports of strong yields in Australia.

  • While there were no new escalations in the Black Sea, reports indicate Russian President Putin called yesterday’s ICBM attack a successful test and plans to continue testing in combat situations.

  • Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported grain exports this season are up 43% year-over-year at 17.2 mmt. Of that, 8.6 mmt was wheat, a 57% increase from the same time last year.

  • Western Australia’s wheat crop is projected to exceed earlier expectations, with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia estimating 24/25 production at 10.33 mmt — roughly 1 mmt higher than September’s forecast.

  • Argentina’s wheat harvest is progressing, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting 29.3% of the expected 18.6 mmt crop now harvested.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat remains near key moving averages between 578–586, with a close above 586 potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

11-22 Midday: Grain Markets Trade Mostly Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 426.25 -0.5
MAR ’25 436 -0.25
DEC ’25 436 -0.75
Soybeans
JAN ’25 977.25 -0.5
MAR ’25 985.5 0.25
NOV ’25 1002 -2.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 543.25 -5.5
MAR ’25 563 -6.5
JUL ’25 581.25 -6
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 551.5 -4
MAR ’25 562.75 -4.5
JUL ’25 577.5 -4.75
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 586 -2
MAR ’25 601 -1.25
SEP ’25 630.25 -1
S&P 500
DEC ’24 5973 2.5
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 70.73 0.63
Gold
JAN ’25 2720.6 33.5

  • The corn market is fractionally lower at midday as it remains rangebound following Monday’s rally, pulled between solid demand and prospects of large South American production.

  • Export sales remain a prominent feature in the market. The USDA reported export sales of 1.495 mmt for the week ending November 14, which pushed commitments 39% above last year, compared to USDA’s 1% projected increase.

  • Argentina’s corn crop is 39.4% planted, up slightly as farmers prioritize soybeans, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

  • Expectations of sizable South American crops remain, as weather in Brazil has turned more seasonal, promoting favorable crop conditions and alleviated concerns of a potentially late planted safrinha crop.

  • Soybeans are trading mixed at midday, dragged down by lower soybean oil, while meal trades higher.

  • Weakness in the world veg oil markets, which saw Malaysian palm oil down 2.7% overnight, continues to weigh on the soybean oil market, which is down 64 points at midday in the January contract.

  • South American weather remains largely favorable for crop development and planting progress. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 35.8% of the soybean crop is planted, up from 20.1% last week.

  • The International Grains Council reduced its estimate of global soybean stocks for the 24/25 season of 82 mmt, from its previous estimate of 86 mmt.

  • The wheat complex is lower across the board and trading near session lows following earlier back and forth trade as traders begin to take profits and square positions ahead of the weekend.

  • The International Grains Council estimates global grain stocks for the 24/25 season at a 10-year low. The agency projects world wheat stocks dropping from previous estimates of 266 mmt down to 263 mmt.

  • Western Australia is seen to be on track for a larger than expected wheat crop. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia estimates the regions wheat crop at 10.33 mmt for the 24/25 season, roughly 1 mmt more than estimated in September.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

11-22 Opening Update: Grains Mixed This Morning, Corn Higher, Soybeans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 428.75 2
MAR ’25 438 1.75
DEC ’25 436.5 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 976.25 -1.5
MAR ’25 983.75 -1.5
NOV ’25 1000 -4.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 547.25 -1.5
MAR ’25 568.25 -1.25
JUL ’25 586 -1.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 556 0.5
MAR ’25 567.5 0.25
JUL ’25 582.75 0.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 591 3
MAR ’25 604.75 2.5
SEP ’25 634.5 3.25

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5963.25 -7.25

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 69.48 -0.62

Gold

JAN ’25 2713.8 26.7

  • Corn is trading higher this morning but remains relatively rangebound. Yesterday, corn ended the day lower and was likely pulled down by sharply lower soybean prices. Exports have been firm, and yesterday’s export sales report showed another week of impressive sales.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed sales at 58.8 million bushels which was on the high end of trade expectations. Mexico was the top buyer followed by unknown destinations and then Japan.

  • As of November 12, funds were estimated to have been long 109,989 contracts of corn. Since November 15, funds are estimated to have added an additional 18,000 contracts to their long position.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning as prices recover from yesterday’s sell-off, but they did make a new contract low in March overnight. Soybean oil is lower and continues to pressure soybeans while soybean meal is higher.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed soybean sales at 68.3 million bushels which was at the high end of trade expectations. China was the top buyer with Mexico and then the Netherlands following.

  • The US share of soybean exports to China were down 13% year-over-year in the Jan-Oct timeframe. China continues to be a large buyer of South American supplies as the possibility of US tariffs loom.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with the Chicago contract trading slightly lower while KC and Minneapolis wheat trade higher. There have been reports that Russian farmers have planted less wheat this year as a result of the escalation with Ukraine and lower cash prices.

  • The gains in wheat futures could remain limited to an extent due to the improved weather in the HRW belt. Recent rains in the area have supported improving crop conditions.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales towards the high end of trade estimates and well above last week’s sales. The top buyer was South Korea followed by Mexico and Indonesia.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

11-21 End of Day: Grains Slide Lower Thursday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Selling pressure in grain markets weighed on corn futures Thursday, as double-digit soybean losses and a stronger U.S. dollar capped potential gains.

  • Soybeans fell for a third straight day, with March and deferred contracts hitting new lows despite strong export sales and daily flash sales. Declines were driven by weaker soybean oil and continued favorable South American weather, as soybean oil also closed lower.

  • Four-month high export sales and higher French wheat prices were not enough to pull wheat futures higher today, a stronger US Dollar added downside pressure.

  • To see the updated US and South American one week precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • General selling pressure in the grain markets weighed on corn futures on Thursday. Double digit losses in the soybean market and renewed strength in the U.S. dollar limited gains in the corn market.

  • The U.S. dollar pushed to new highs for the move today as the value of the dollar broke out of its recent consolidation pattern to the upside. A strong dollar limits the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the export market.

  • The USDA announced weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. Last week, exporters posted 1.494 MMT (58.8 mb) of new corn sales for the current marketing year. This total was within market expectations, Mexico remained the top buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Weak energy prices and rising corn costs have pushed most ethanol plant margins negative. While demand exceeds expectations, prolonged margin pressure could curb corn usage for ethanol.

  • The corn market may see an increase in volatility going into the weekend and Thanksgiving Day Holiday. December options expire on Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow. 

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract comes in between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day causing the March contract and beyond to post new contract lows. The move came despite solid export sales and a slew of flash sales. Prices were driven lower by lower soybean oil and continued good weather in South America. Soybean oil ended the day lower as well.

  • Today’s export sales report showed soybean export sales totaling 68 million bushels which was above the average trade guess. This brought year to date commitments to 1.161 billion which is up 9% from YA compared to the USDA estimate of 8%.

  • This morning, private exporters reported multiple soybean flash sales. 198,000 metric tons of soybeans were reported to delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year, 135,000 metric tons were reported for delivery to unknown destinations, and 133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were reported for delivery to the Philippines during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Rumors of China’s interest in U.S. soybeans circulated last night, with Sino Grain actively buying February shipments. This may have been the flash sale seen this morning, but it could also indicate that China is looking to make additional soybean purchases from the US.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through 986 and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faded from overnight highs despite rising Black Sea tensions and higher Matif wheat, with December contracts facing resistance near their 20-day moving averages. A stronger US dollar hitting 13-month highs likely added pressure.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at a four-month high of 20 mb for the 24/25 marketing year. Year-to-date commitments are now 544 mb, up 23% from last year and in line with historical averages.

  • This week’s updated Drought Monitor showed 40% of the winter wheat areas are experiencing drought, down from 43% last week, and 41% last year, as recent rain has helped improve conditions.

  • Escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, including reports of a Russian ICBM strike, continue to influence wheat. The recent rally appears driven by less bullish short covering, not fresh buying, as volume and open interest have declined.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat lies near key moving averages around 578–586, with a close above potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With initial support below the market remaining in the 545 – 535 area, prices remain poised to test the heavy resistance area around 580 – 583. A close above that level could allow for a test of 593 – 603. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

11-21 Midday: Grains Reverse Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 427 -3.25
MAR ’25 436.75 -3.25
DEC ’25 437.5 -3.5
Soybeans
JAN ’25 982 -8.5
MAR ’25 989.25 -10
NOV ’25 1004.25 -11
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 549.75 -2.75
MAR ’25 569.5 -2.75
JUL ’25 587 -2.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 555.5 -6.25
MAR ’25 566.75 -6
JUL ’25 582.25 -5.75
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 588.25 -3.75
MAR ’25 603.75 -3.5
SEP ’25 633 -4
S&P 500
DEC ’24 5949.25 11.5
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 69.91 1.16
Gold
JAN ’25 2679.5 15.9

  • Corn follows the wheat market lower at midday. Improving weather in South America contributes to the pullback in prices.

  • Weekly export sales for corn came in at 59 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are now at 1.236 bb, which is up 39% from last year.

  • Average daily ethanol production for the week ending November 15th was a record high at 1.110 million barrels.

  • Corn used for ethanol came in slightly lower from last week at 110.3 mb but was up from 105.2 mb for the same week a year ago.

  • Algeria purchased 240,000 mt of South American corn.

  • Soybeans remain weaker at midday on lack of China demand and improving South America production prospects.

  • Weekly export sales for soybeans came in above expectations at 68 mb. Year-to-date commitments are at 1.161 bb, which is 9% higher than last year.

  • China and Brazil signed 40 economic agreements yesterday as their relationship continues to build. Looking ahead, US exports to China could continue to be negatively affected as China looks for other agriculture suitors.

  • The US share of soybean exports to China were down 13% year-over-year in the Jan-Oct timeframe. China continues to be a large buyer of South American supplies as the possibility of US tariffs loom.

  • Wheat reverses lower at midday on large Argentine wheat crop estimates.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at a four-month high of 20 mb. Year-to-date commitments are now 544 mb, which is up 23% from a year ago.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates Argentine wheat production to be 30% higher from last year at 18.8 mmt. This would make for the fourth best crop out of the last twenty years if it holds true.

  • War tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to be prominent which will offer some support to prices, but upside potential may be limited on larger crop estimates in South America.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

11-21 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 430.25 0
MAR ’25 440.5 0.5
DEC ’25 441.5 0.5

Soybeans

JAN ’25 993.25 2.75
MAR ’25 1001.5 2.25
NOV ’25 1016.5 1.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 555.25 2.75
MAR ’25 575 2.75
JUL ’25 592.5 3.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 563.75 2
MAR ’25 574.75 2
JUL ’25 590.25 2.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 594.5 2.5
MAR ’25 610.75 3.5
SEP ’25 635.75 -1.25

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5957.25 19.5

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 70.21 1.46

Gold

JAN ’25 2679.4 15.8

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning, and while prices have traded relatively quietly over the past week, they have been in a steady uptrend from the August lows. Good demand has driven prices higher.

  • There have been rumors that South Korea was a buyer of corn at some point yesterday which supported the market, but the $4.30 price area has acted as a barrier in the December contract as the strong US dollar and lower shipping rates limit US corn in the global export market.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,300k and 2,200k tons with an average guess of 1,544k. This would compare to 1,315k tons a week ago and 1,432k a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after losses over the past two days that brought prices down to support levels. Soybean oil has been a main driver in soybean prices and is trading higher today while soybean meal is slightly lower.

  • There were rumors that China was in the market for US soybeans last night. Sino grain has remained an active buyer of US soybeans for February delivery which supported the market overnight.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,900k tons with an average guess of 1,331k tons. This would compare to 1,555k last week and 902k last year.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as prices remain supported by the concerns of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia. This conflict could limit wheat flow from that region.

  • The gains in wheat futures could remain limited to an extent due to the improved weather in the HRW belt. Recent rains in the area have supported improving crop conditions.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 250k and 600k tons with an average guess of 378k tons. This would compare to 380k tons last week and 197k tons last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

11-20 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Recover to the Upside, While Beans Slide

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With support from the neighboring wheat market and a solid ethanol production report, corn futures managed their highest close in nearly two weeks, a difficult task as sellers have stepped in at these levels.

  • Sharply lower soybean oil and the prospect of a large Brazilian soybean crop continue to weigh on the soybean market, which closed in the bottom third of the day’s 15-cent range despite new export sales.

  • Soybean oil closed with a 3.47% loss after breaking support in the January contract as traders move to take profits and liquidate long positions triggered by weak world veg oil prices.

  • Despite a stronger US dollar and Southern Hemisphere harvests, wheat closed higher across the board, rebounding from earlier declines as traders continue to add war premium to prices.

  • To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts and GRACE-based Drought Indicators, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued when seasonal opportunities improve.  This could be as early as late fall or as late as early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures edged higher on Wednesday, marking their highest close since November 8. The 430-price level December continues to cap gains as sellers step in near this point.

  • Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.110 million barrels/day for the week ending November 15, down 3.27 million from the prior week but 8.5% higher than last year. Corn use totaled 111.6 mb, approximately 15.9 mb/day, above the pace needed to meet the USDA’s yearly ethanol grind target.

  • The USDA will release weekly corn export sales Thursday, with expectations between 1.0 and 2.2 mmt. Last week’s 1.35 mmt sales were a bit disappointing, possibly due to a stronger US dollar reducing competitiveness.

  • The cereal grain markets, corn and wheat, will be keeping a close eye on geo-political tensions between Ukraine and Russia. A possible escalation of the ongoing war between the two would likely be supportive for both cereal grain markets.

  • The corn market may see an increase in volatility this week as December options expire Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow.

Above: Overhead resistance for the March contract comes in between 440 and 445. A close above this area could trigger a test of the 465 resistance area. Below the market, support may come in between 425 and 420.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second day, with January contracts near session lows and 17 cents above the August contract low. Pressure came from weaker soybean oil, dragged down by lower palm oil, while soybean meal ended slightly higher.

  • The USDA reported private export sales totaling 202,000 mt of soybeans to China and 226,200 mt to unknown destinations, both for 24/25 delivery.

  • Abiove raised its 24/25 Brazil soybean production estimate to 167.7 mmt, surpassing CONAB’s 166.14 mmt projection. If realized, this record crop could boost exports to 104.1 mmt according to the firm.

  • China’s October US soybean imports surged to 541,434 mt, nearly doubling last year, as buyers accelerated purchases amid trade tension concerns. Imports from Brazil totaled 8.09 mmt, maintaining its position as China’s top supplier.

Above: Soybeans appear to have found nearby support around 986. A close above 1014 could lead to another test of the 1044 -1050 area. Otherwise, should the market trade through 986 and close below 975 support, prices could drift towards 940.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat posted modest gains despite a strong day and positive reversal for Matif wheat futures, with a higher US Dollar Index likely keeping wheat prices in check.

  • Wheat harvests in Australia and Argentina continue to pressure US markets, with Argentina’s wheat export values dropping $6 to $216/mt, making US wheat less competitive globally.

  • EU soft wheat exports reached 8.79 mmt for the season as of November 17, down 31% from 12.7 mmt during the same period last year, according to the European Commission.

  • Houthi rebels launched two separate unsuccessful missile attacks on a grain vessel en route from Ukraine to Pakistan on November 17 and 18, escalating regional tensions.

  • Russia’s wheat export duty increased 4.7%, from 2,569.2 to 2,689.7 Rubels per mt starting November 20. In 2021 Russia initiated floating duties on exports of corn, barley, and wheat, with the funds going to subsidize agriculture producers.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Overhead resistance for March wheat lies near key moving averages around 578–586, with a close above potentially targeting 617. Support is seen between 546–536, with major support near 521–514.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: With initial support below the market remaining in the 545 – 535 area, prices remain poised to test the heavy resistance area around 580 – 583. A close above that level could allow for a test of 593 – 603. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • New sales targets will be issued in the coming weeks, as timing and conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The front month chart rolled to March, leaving a gap between 580 ½ and 584 ½ from the contract roll. Resistance remains near 615–624, with initial support around 584 and major support near 563.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center. 

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.