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12-2 Opening Update: Grains Lower to Start the Week with Jump in the Dollar

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 431 -2
JUL ’25 440.25 -2
DEC ’25 430 -1.5

Soybeans

JAN ’25 988.25 -1.25
MAR ’25 994.5 -1.5
NOV ’25 1007.25 -3.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 544.5 -3.5
MAY ’25 553 -4
JUL ’25 559.75 -4

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 539 -1.75
MAY ’25 546 -2.5
JUL ’25 553.75 -2.25

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 589.75 -2
JUL ’25 605.5 -2.25
SEP ’25 615.25 -2

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6114.25 -4.75

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 68.66 0.94

Gold

FEB ’25 2666.8 -14.2

  • Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning as the dollar trades higher after President elect Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all BRIC nations if they moved to undermine the US dollar. On a friendly note, March corn gained 7 cents for the month of November.

  • Last week’s export sales for corn fell slightly from the previous week at 1,130k tons which compared to 1,495k tons the previous week. The main buyers were Mexico, South Korea, and unknown destinations.

  • Some pressure in the corn market may be coming from good South American weather that is expected to remain beneficial over the next 10 days. Export demand is good, but there is a large number of corn bushels sold to China that have not yet been shipped and could be at risk for cancellation.

  • Soybean futures are trading lower this morning but have recovered slightly off their overnight lows. The grain complex as a whole has not reacted positively to all of the recent tariff threats as they generally cause the dollar to move higher.

  • Soybean meal is trading slightly higher this morning while bean oil is lower. On Friday, it was shown that soybean crush for October came in at 210.6 million bushels which was a 4.6% increase from a year ago.

  • In Brazil, soybean conditions are seen as very good with Agroconsult estimating the 24/25 crop at a record 172.2 million bushels. AgRural has estimated that 91% of the bean crop has been planted so far.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with pressure from the dollar. March Chicago wheat came within 3/4 of a cent from taking out its August contract low, but so far remains above it.

  • Russia is expected to lower its wheat exports by a larger number than usual as a result of a smaller than expected crop. Officials have approved a wheat export quota of 11 million tons for the second half of the season from Feb 15 to June 30.

  • Friday’s export sales report saw more disappointing numbers at just 367k tons compared to 550k tons the previous week. Top buyers were unknown, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-29 End of Day: Corn Higher, Soybeans Quiet and Wheat Lower into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended November on a high note finding buying interest to end the week and the month.

  • Despite marketing-year high export sales for soybeans last week, futures prices were relatively muted to end the holiday-shortened trading week.

  • Wheat futures stumbled into the weekend closing at or near their lows for the week.

  • To see the updated US Seven Day Moisture Outlook and the Week 1 South American Precipitation Forecast, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw buying strength to end November as the December and March contracts saw moderate gains. For the week, December corn finished the week approximately 2 cents lower, but nearly 9 cents off the lows for the week.

  • Today was First Notice Day for December corn, and prices bounced as long positions have been removed from the market. Open interest in the December contract has gone from 270,000+ contracts on Monday to less than 20,000 contracts on the open today. With Dec in delivery, traders will shift focus to the most actively traded March contract.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Friday morning. The USDA reported new corn sales of 1.06 MMT (41.8 mb) for the week ending November 21. This was at the low end of expectations. Total corn sales have been strong, trending 33% above last year’s levels.

  • Export demand and ethanol production continue to support corn markets, helping prices recover from recent lows and providing a foundation heading into year-end.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day with front-month gains and deferred-month losses, reflecting a bull spread. Limited carry in the market signals expectations of abundant supplies next year. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while soybean oil finished higher. Strong soybean crush numbers continue to create a glut of bean meal.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was strong for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 91.5 million bushels of soybean export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and 0.7 mb for 25/26. This was above the high end of analyst estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 76.5 mb were well above the 29.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Germany.

  • For the week, January soybeans gained 7-1/4 cents to $9.90-3/4 while March only gained 5 cents. January soybean meal gained $1.70 to $293.20 and January soybean oil lost 0.08 cents to 41.76 cents.

  • The USDA announced a large daily export sale for soybeans before the session this morning. The USDA announced sales of 840,000 MT (30.8 mb) and 151,700 MT (5.6 mb) of soybeans for unknown destinations for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended weaker after mixed trading, following Matif wheat’s third consecutive decline. However, the falling US Dollar Index and oversold technicals may provide support at current levels.

  • The USDA reported 13.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, with weekly shipments at 15.9 mb, just below the 16.5 mb needed to meet the 825 mb export goal. Commitments are up 20% year-over-year at 557 mb.

  • As reported by Tass, Russian wheat exports are expected to his 25.3 mmt so far this season. That is 1.7 mmt higher than last year. In addition, they are projecting total Russian wheat exports this season at 41.7 mmt.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 93% of the French soft wheat crop has been planted as of Monday. This is ahead of last year’s 81% pace for the same time period and is also slightly ahead of the 91% five-year average. Of the crop, 87% are rated good or very good, slightly below last year’s 88%.

  • The European Commission raised its 24/25 EU grain production forecast to 256.9 mmt from 255.6 mmt in October, while soft wheat was lowered slightly to 112.3 mmt. Durum wheat estimates remain unchanged at 7.2 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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11-29 Midday: Corn Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 420.5 4.75
MAR ’25 431.75 3.75
DEC ’25 429.5 -0.25
Soybeans
JAN ’25 990.75 2
MAR ’25 997.25 0.25
NOV ’25 1012.25 -1.75
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 545.25 7.5
MAR ’25 549.75 1.25
JUL ’25 565.5 -0.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 526.5 0.25
MAR ’25 543.5 -1
JUL ’25 558.25 -1.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 577.5 13
MAR ’25 591.5 0.25
SEP ’25 619.5 2.5
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6048 33
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 69.58 0.86
Gold
JAN ’25 2672 19.7

  • The USDA reported an increase of 41.8 mb of corn export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 2.6 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 39.8 mb were under the 47.9 mb pace needed to reach the

  • USDA’s export goal of 2.325 bb. Commitments have reached 1.278 bb for 24/25 which is up 33% from last year.

  • India had reached their ethanol blending target of 10% (E10) ahead of schedule in 2022. For reference, their blend was only about 1.5% in 2013-2014. They now aim to have a 20% blend (E20) by the end of 2025.

  • US ethanol production on Wednesday was a new record at 1.119 million barrels per day. Demand for ethanol has been strong, and this in part is helping to keep nearby corn futures supported above 400.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 91.5 mb of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.7 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 76.5 mb exceeded the 29.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.825 bb. Commitments have reached 1.245 bb which is up 10% from last year.

  • In daily sales announcements, private exporters reported sales of 840,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, along 151,700 mt also to unknown destinations, and both for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Palm oil was higher on Thursday and is sharply higher again on Friday. This is giving a boost to soybean oil this morning. However, soybean meal is trading lower, which may be keeping a lid on soybean futures prices.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 13.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 15.9 mb were under the 16.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Commitments have reached 557 mb which is up 20% from last year.

  • US wheat is trading in mixed fashion this morning with Chicago mostly higher, Kansas City mostly lower, and Minneapolis higher. Both the KC and MPLS futures made new contract lows on Wednesday, keeping the downtrend intact. However, futures are at or near technical oversold levels that could indicate a bottom is near.

  • Argentina’s wheat export values are said to be around $216 per mt FOB. This is about $10 below Russian wheat, which is already cheap itself. These low global export offers are keeping pressure on the US market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-29 Opening Update: Following Thanksgiving, Grain Markets Set to Open at 8:30

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 420.75 0.75
MAR ’25 428.5 0.5
DEC ’25 430 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 987.75 4.25
MAR ’25 997.75 3.75
NOV ’25 1016 3.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 537 -2.5
MAR ’25 552 -6
JUL ’25 569.5 -5.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 546.75 -3.75
MAR ’25 554.5 -4.25
JUL ’25 568.5 -4.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 578 0.5
MAR ’25 598.5 -3
SEP ’25 623.25 -2.75

S&P 500

DEC ’24 6031.5 -6.75

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 69.02 0.25

Gold

JAN ’25 2664.7 30.3

  • Corn futures are not yet trading due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but export sales will be released soon after and will likely drive prices. Today is first notice day for the December contract and there were 111 deliveries total.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 31 and 79 million bushels, and total export sales and shipments are currently at 53.7% of the total USDA export estimate just 11 weeks into the new marketing year. This pace is 10 points ahead of the average sales pace.

  • US ethanol stocks rose by 1.4% to 22.869m bbl which compared to analyst expectations of 22.745m bbl. Plant production was at 1.119m b/d which compared to the average guess of 1.102m.

  • The soybean market will open at 8:30 central time today, but soybeans ended the day higher on Wednesday for the second consecutive day of gains as they find support near contract lows. Soybean meal was supportive on Wednesday while soybean oil was sharply lower.

  • The USDA will release its monthly fats and oils report at 2pm, and soybean crush for the month of October is expected to have jumped to a record high 210.9 million bushels. If realized, it would compare to last month’s 201.4 mb.

  • Estimates for soybean sales in today’s export sales report are in a range between 1,500k tons and 2,400k tons which would be a large number supported by many recent flash sales.

  • Winter wheat futures closed lower on Wednesday but did not the March Chicago wheat did not take out its contracts lows. Strong winter wheat conditions going into winter dormancy in the US continue to weigh on wheat futures.

  • EU wheat exports are said to be down 30% year on year, after a disappointing harvest this year, which could be a bullish factor. Additionally, Black Sea tensions may keep wheat prices supported over the summer lows.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-27 End of Day: Soybeans Higher, Corn and Wheat Lower into Thanksgiving

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A fifth consecutive day of liquidation hit December corn futures on Wednesday ahead of First Notice Day on Friday. Continued weakness in wheat futures added pressure to corn.

  • Despite lower corn, wheat, and soybean oil futures, soybeans closed higher, with soybean meal futures also rebounding from recent lows.

  • Wheat futures fell across the board ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, retreating toward contract lows. Prices remained unaffected by the US dollar’s drop to its lowest level since early November.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor and the Week 2 South American Precipitation Forecast, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The December corn market finished lower for the fifth straight session. First Notice Day on Friday and basis contract pricing likely pressured the market, leading to the lowest close since November 4. Open interest in the December contract has dropped by over 200,000 contracts since the start of the week as traders are moving aside long positions.

  • The US dollar made a strong correction lower on Thursday as the prospect of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates sent profit taking in the Japanese yen versus US dollar trade. Expectations are for the dollar to remain firm, but the setback could help support commodity prices.

  • With President Trump looking to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico imports as part of his Day 1 initiative, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum warned of retaliatory tariffs to counter. Mexico is the largest export buyer of US corn this marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning, delayed due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Corn sales have been strong to start the marketing year, but slowing as higher prices and strong dollar has hurt competitiveness. The market will be watching to see if this trend will continue.

Above: The corn market became overbought and drifted back to the 425 area, if prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma) they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma. If this 425 – 420 area holds prices could retest the 442 area with the potential of trading towards 465.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher ahead of Thanksgiving, diverging from weaker corn and wheat markets. Gains in soybean meal offset a sharp 4.19% drop in soybean oil, which followed palm oil lower. This contrasted with yesterday’s soybean oil rally sparked by potential import tariffs on China’s used cooking oil.

  • This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. Export sales have tapered off slightly over the past few weeks but remain firm.

  • Brazilian Crop analyst, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, raised his 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 168.0 mmt, citing a strong start and ideal weather in key growing regions. The 10-15 day forecast for central Brazil has turned slightly drier which could add some weather premium if it continued.

  • Rain is expected over the next couple of weeks in the dry areas of Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil, which could result in 2-4 inches of rain. This has some analysts projecting between 700-750 mb of increased soybean production for South America when compared to last year.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should the 975 area hold turning prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014, before retesting the 1045 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite the US Dollar Index plunging to a two-week low today, US wheat could not find any footing. Pressure stemmed from a lower trade for Matif wheat futures as well as the fact that First Notice Day for December grain contracts is Friday. With markets closed for Thanksgiving tomorrow, this may have added some selling pressure, as anyone long at the close today is at risk of delivery on Friday.

  • Weakness in wheat was also tied to improved US winter wheat conditions. Monday’s Crop Progress report rated 55% good-to-excellent—the highest in four years—bolstered by recent Southern Plains rainfall.

  • Ongoing harvest in the Southern Hemisphere may have also pressured wheat today. Both Australia and Argentina are harvesting, but Argentina’s peso has also reached a record low level, resulting in falling wheat export values.

  • According to their agricultural ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat has risen to 3,020.3 rubles per ton from 2,689.7 rubles previously, a 12.3% increase. The duty on corn also increased, while it fell for barley. These rates are said to be valid until December 3.

  • The European Commission has said that EU soft wheat exports as of November 24 have reached 9.2 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 30% decrease from last year’s 13.1 mmt total. Top destinations for the wheat exports include Nigeria, the UK, and Egypt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Chicago wheat remains in a broad trading range between 536 down below and 586 up top. If the market can trade through the 50 and 200-day moving averages and close above 586 it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Whereas a close below 536 could put the market at risk of trading to the 521 – 514 support area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since rolling to the March contract, front month Minneapolis wheat has been capped by resistance near the 50-day moving average around 613. A close above this point could put the market on track to test the October highs near 655, with potential resistance around the 200-day moving average. Should prices slide below 584 they could then be at risk of retesting the 563 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-27 Midday: Soybeans Strong, Corn Quiet and Wheat Weak at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 420 0
MAR ’25 429.25 1.25
DEC ’25 430 -0.25
Soybeans
JAN ’25 992.5 9
MAR ’25 1001 7
NOV ’25 1016.25 3.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 533.5 -6
MAR ’25 549.25 -8.75
JUL ’25 567 -8
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 541.75 -8.75
MAR ’25 550 -8.75
JUL ’25 564.5 -8.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 570.75 -6.75
MAR ’25 596.25 -5.25
SEP ’25 625.25 -0.75
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6013 -25.25
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 68.91 0.14
Gold
JAN ’25 2653.2 18.8

  • The anticipation that the Trump administration may issue tariffs on both Canada and Mexico continues to limit upside movement for corn futures.

  • South American weather remains favorable, and the extended outlook continues to look that way into mid-December. This may also limit upside potential for corn and soybeans too.

  • According to export group ANEC, Brazilian November corn exports declined to 5.1 mmt, when compared with 7 mmt last year.

  • First Notice Day for December futures is this Friday, and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, this means that long contract holders will need to exit today or be at risk of being delivered against. This may also keep some selling pressure on corn today.

  • Despite palm oil gaining 1.3% on Wednesday, soybean oil is down sharply this morning, which may be keeping a lid on soybean futures.

  • Rain is expected over the next couple of weeks in the dry areas of Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil, which could result in 2-4 inches of rain. This has some analysts projecting between 700-750 mb of increased soybean production for South America when compared to last year.

  • According to export group ANEC, Brazilian November soybean exports declined to 2.4 mmt, when compared with 4.6 mmt last year.

  • Argentina’s currency, the Peso, has hit a record low level, and with their wheat export offers have also fallen. With harvest taking place there and in Australia, this is keeping pressure on the US market.

  • The US Southern Plains have received a combination of rain and snow which should keep winter wheat crop prospects high. Monday’s rating of 55% good to excellent is the highest in four years.

  • EU wheat exports are said to be down 30% year on year, after a disappointing harvest this year, which could be a bullish factor. Additionally, Black Sea tensions may keep wheat prices supported over the summer lows.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-27 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Lower Ahead of Thanksgiving

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 420.75 0.75
MAR ’25 428.5 0.5
DEC ’25 430 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 987.75 4.25
MAR ’25 997.75 3.75
NOV ’25 1016 3.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 537 -2.5
MAR ’25 552 -6
JUL ’25 569.5 -5.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 546.75 -3.75
MAR ’25 554.5 -4.25
JUL ’25 568.5 -4.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 578 0.5
MAR ’25 598.5 -3
SEP ’25 623.25 -2.75

S&P 500

DEC ’24 6031.5 -6.75

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 69.02 0.25

Gold

JAN ’25 2664.7 30.3

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices attempt to recover some of yesterday’s losses. Corn prices have remained in a relatively tight range all month.

  • Talk of a 25% tariff by President elect Trump sent corn prices lower, albeit on low volume, yesterday. Mexico has purchased over 500 million bushels of US corn so far this marketing year accounting for 41% of the US corn export total. 

  • South Africa’s Department of Agriculture last week gave the go ahead for US corn imports after drought and dryness cut their corn production by 22%. South Africa has been virtually nonexistent buying US corn over the last 30 years. This could bolster an already strong 2024/25 US corn export book.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning as prices continue to hover just above contact lows. Soybean meal is about unchanged this morning while soybean oil is slightly lower to start the day.

  • Weather for much of Brazil and Argentina looks supportive to soybean development as we flip the calendar over to December. Recent rains have alleviated dryness worries in Argentina while a continued mix of rain and sun has been ideal for much of northern Brazil. 

  • Recent increased tariff talk by President elect Trump has done little to effect the already beaten up US soybean futures as of late. Traders seem content to hold near these prices while continuing to monitor South American weather. 

  • Winter wheat futures are trading lower this morning after yesterdays slight close higher in prices. Spring wheat futures are holding onto a fractional gain this morning. Strong winter wheat conditions going into winter dormancy in the US continue to weigh on wheat futures.

  • After a very strong last two months the US Dollar index has backed off this week after running into upside resistance. 

  • European Union soft wheat exports as of November 24th have reached 9.15 mmt, down 30% from a year ago. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-26 End of Day: Corn Drifts Lower as Wheat Rebounds and Beans Close Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures settled lower for the fourth day in a row, likely pressured by the threat of proposed tariffs on Mexico, along with basis contract pricing ahead of Friday’s First Notice Day.

  • Soybeans closed mixed, as they continue to trade just above contract lows. Sharply higher soybean oil lent support to soybeans, while favorable South American weather added resistance.

  • The threat of additional tariffs on imported Chinese goods supported soybean oil, which gained 138 points in the January contract, as they would likely slow the import of used cooking oil considerably.

  • All three wheat classes clawed back overnight gains to close mid-range after trading lower early in the session, as traders balanced a drier forecast and reduced Russian exports against exceptionally good crop ratings.

  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.

  • We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • Considering seasonal weakness, no new sales recommendations will be issued until opportunities improve, which could be as soon as late fall or as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished lower for the fourth straight day, with March futures testing 100-day moving average support. First Notice Day on Friday and basis contract pricing likely pressured the market, leading to the lowest close for March futures in November.

  • President-elect Trump announced a Day 1 tariff plan, proposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports. The prospect of retaliation likely limited positive price action.

  • Brazil’s soybean planting is 85% complete, well ahead of last year. The early pace should keep second-crop (safrinha) corn planting on schedule for key summer weather.

  • A strong US dollar has made US corn less competitive globally. While export sales remain solid, concerns are rising about a potential demand slowdown in early 2025 if the dollar strengthens further.

Above: The corn market became overbought and drifted back to the 425 area, if prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma) they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma. If this 425 – 420 area holds prices could retest the 442 area with the potential of trading towards 465.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

  • Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.

  • New sales recommendations will be issued as seasonal opportunities improve, which could be anytime between late fall and early spring.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales targets have not been announced for next year’s crop. Patience is recommended, the earliest they will be set will be late fall or early winter, and early spring at the latest.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed, with front months slightly lower and deferred months higher. Trade was volatile, with prices dropping up to seven cents after the open but recovering into the close. Soybean meal gave back yesterday’s gains, while soybean oil surged 1.38 cents in the January contract.

  • President-elect Trump’s Day 1 tariff plan, proposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, likely weighed on grain markets during the session.

  • Soybean product prices have driven recent soybean movements. Soybean oil rose over 3% on the session, supporting bean prices, while soybean meal fell nearly 2% in the front-month contract.

  • With planting well ahead of last year’s pace, Brazilian weather stays favorable in the near term with little weather risk to the early soybean crop.

  • Brazilian Crop analyst, Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 168.0 mmt, citing a strong start and ideal weather in key growing regions.

Above: January soybeans continue to drift and test the 975 support area. A close below there could put the market at risk of receding to the 940 support area around the August low. Should the 975 area hold turning prices back higher, they may find resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1014, before retesting the 1045 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex settled mid-range after trading on both sides of unchanged as the market balanced the best crop ratings for the week in six years, with a dry forecast and lower export estimates out of Russia.

  • The USDA reported winter wheat conditions as of November 24 at 55% good to excellent, the highest rating for this week in six years. The crop is also 97% planted, with 89% emergence.

  • Weather across much of the winter wheat areas is expected to be drier than normal through the first week of December, with normal to above-normal temperatures in the Plains states and cooler temperatures in the East.

  • SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 44.1 mmt from 45.9 mmt, anticipating stricter export quotas. It was also noted that Russia has reduced its export quotas mid-season in recent years to protect domestic supplies.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Chicago wheat remains in a broad trading range between 536 down below and 586 up top. If the market can trade through the 50 and 200-day moving averages and close above 586 it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Whereas a close below 536 could put the market at risk of trading to the 521 – 514 support area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat found resistance just below the 50-day moving average, near 577. Should the market trade through this area and close above 583, it could be set to run towards the 593 – 603 area. Otherwise, close below 535 could press prices towards the August low of 527 ¼.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Above: Winter wheat percentage emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and versus last year (brown).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since rolling to the March contract, front month Minneapolis wheat has been capped by resistance near the 50-day moving average around 613. A close above this point could put the market on track to test the October highs near 655, with potential resistance around the 200-day moving average. Should prices slide below 584 they could then be at risk of retesting the 563 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-26 Midday: Wheat Remains Firm at Midday, Corn and Soybeans Pullback

ByGrain Market Insider

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24 422 -2.75
MAR ’25 429.5 -3.5
DEC ’25 430.25 -2.25
Soybeans
JAN ’25 980 -5.75
MAR ’25 990 -4.25
NOV ’25 1009 -1.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24 538.25 2.5
MAR ’25 557.5 1.75
JUL ’25 574.5 2
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24 551.5 5
MAR ’25 559.25 2.25
JUL ’25 572.5 2
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24 583.75 2.75
MAR ’25 602 5.5
SEP ’25 630 6
S&P 500
DEC ’24 6022.5 16
Crude Oil
JAN ’25 69.49 0.55
Gold
JAN ’25 2643.6 13

  • Corn has pulled back at midday as the market digests the news of a potential 25% tariff on imported goods from Mexico.

  • The shortened holiday week with December long contracts needing to be offset before tomorrow’s close could lead to some additional pressure on prices this week.

  • AgRural estimates that summer corn planting in Brazil has now reached 93%, up 7% from last week.

  • Soybeans and meal are trading lower at midday after President-elect Trump posted news of a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. This could shift Chinese export demand from the US to South America which would hurt US prices.

  • AgRural estimates that soybean planting in Brazil has reached 86%, up 6% from last week.

  • South American weather remains favorable for production prospects and will continue to keep upside potential limited.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading higher at midday as weather forecasts for the Plains states turn drier over the next 10 days.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed 97% of the winter wheat crop has been planted with 55% of the crop rated good-to-excellent.

  • President-elect Trump shared he would impose an additional 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada, which could limit upside price action.

  • SovEcon lowered their 24/25 Russian wheat export forecast from 45.9 mmt to 44.1 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-26 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher This Morning Led by Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 425.5 0.75
MAR ’25 433.75 0.75
DEC ’25 433.5 1

Soybeans

JAN ’25 991 5.25
MAR ’25 999.75 5.5
NOV ’25 1015 4.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 543.25 7.5
MAR ’25 564 8.25
JUL ’25 580.75 8.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 556.25 9.75
MAR ’25 567 10
JUL ’25 579.75 9.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 588 7
MAR ’25 607 10.5
SEP ’25 631.5 7.5

S&P 500

DEC ’24 6021.25 14.75

Crude Oil

JAN ’25 69.64 0.7

Gold

JAN ’25 2646.7 16.1

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning and has recovered from its overnight lows that brought the March contract below the 50-day moving average. Corn prices remain in a relatively tight range.

  • Last night, there were reports that soon to be President Trump is planning on tacking an additional 10% tariff on China and will also place 25% tariffs on both Mexico and Canada. The news caused the dollar to jump which is bearish for commodities, but prices have stabilized.

  • Yesterday’s export inspection report showed corn inspections at 903k tons for the week ending November 21 which on the higher side of expectations and compares to 873.7k last week and 419.9k a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning and also recovered from overnight lows that were a result of the tariff news. Soybean oil is leading soybeans higher while soybean meal is slightly lower to start the day.

  • The recent volatility in the soy products has caused processing margins to tighten with the main issue being lower soybean oil prices that have fallen by 6.55 cents since their highs on November 11.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report showed soybean inspections at 2,102k tons which was on the higher side of expectations and compares to 2,266.4k last week and 1,574.1k last year.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way up. The dollar spiked overnight but has since fallen into negative territory which is allowing wheat prices to move higher.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed that 97% of the winter wheat crop has been planted, that 89% is emerged, and that the good to excellent rating has increased to 55%. Last week the rating was at 49%, and the trade estimate for this report was at just 51% good to excellent.

  • SovEcon has cut their export forecast for the 24/25 wheat crop to 44.1 mmt from 45.9 mmt citing stricter export quotas. In the second half of the year, the country tends to limit wheat exports to protect domestic supplies.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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