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8-20 Opening Update: Grains Starting the Day Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets!   While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are lower this morning with September down 3/4 cents to $3.78-3/4 and December down 2 cents to $4.01-1/4. 

  • ProFarmer Crop Tour finds IN corn yield at 193.8 and NE at 179.5.  The IN yield is the highest since tour started in 2003 and NE is the highest since 2021.

  • Dalian corn hits a new contract low; U.S. sales to Mexico supportive, but dry Midwest weather, cooler temps, and weak export demand provide resistance.

Corn Futures Attempt to Bounce: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. However, losses tied to last week’s bearish USDA report were quickly reversed with a strong finish to the week. With December now the front month, a gap sits below the market between 380 and 400. On the upside, targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap near 430. 

  • Soybeans are mixed with the September contract up 1/4 cent at $10.1325, November down 1 cent at $10.32-3/4, Sep meal up 3.40 dollars at $290.80, and Sep bean oil down 0.38 cents to 51.30 cents. 

  • ProFarmer tour shows lower IN pod counts (1,376 vs 1,409 LY) but record-high NE (1,348 vs 1,172 LY).

  • Soymeal strength continues to offset weaker soyoil with Sep crush up towards 191.  Dalian oils complex trades lower, American Soybean Association urges Trump for China trade deal, and Brazil may curb crush on poor margins.

Soybeans Rally Through Resistance: Soybean futures rallied sharply in early August after a bullish USDA report cut 2.5 million acres from 2025 harvested area projections. Prices broke through resistance near 1030 and have since held above it, with this zone now acting as support on any pullback. On the upside, the next key resistance stands at the spring highs near 1080, a level that has capped rallies for the past year. 

  • The wheat markets are trading mixed this morning with  September Chicago up 1-3/4 cents at $5.0025,  Sep KC wheat down 3/4 cents to $4.9875, and September Mpls wheat up 1-1/2 cents to $5.7000. 

  • USDA may be overstating world wheat trade by 8-10 mmt; Argentina and Australia futures hit new lows; EU exports down 14% vs last year.

  • Russia’s Jul-Aug exports off 38% yoy as new vessel approval rules stall loadings; terminals overflowing with 120 ships awaiting clearance.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-19 End of Day: Grains Retreat Tuesday Ahead of Pro Farmer Tour Results

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures weakened Tuesday, with September down 4 ½ cents to 379 ½ and December 3 ¼ lower at 403 ¼. U.S. corn holds a strong price advantage, roughly 30 cents/bu under Brazil, keeping U.S. exports competitive.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures fell Tuesday after failing to break key resistance at $10.50 in November contracts. USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 228,606 MT (8.4 mb) for 2025/26. New-crop soybean sales remain at a 10-year low for this point in the season.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed lower Tuesday in sympathy with weakness in corn and soybeans during a broad risk-off trade. Spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 50% good/excellent, while harvest jumped 20 points to 36% complete.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling pressure on Tuesday as the front month September futures lost 4 ½ cents to 379 ½, and December futures traded 3 ¼ lower to 403 ¼.

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported South Dakota corn yields at 174.2 bpa (vs. 156.5 last year, 144.1 three-year avg) and Ohio yields at 185.7 bpa (vs. 183.3 last year, 180.5 thirty-year avg). Nebraska and Indiana results are due this evening.

  • Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is 89.3% complete, up from 83% last week. Despite a record crop, farmer selling remains light due to low prices.

  • U.S. corn holds a strong price advantage, roughly 30 cents/bu under Brazil, keeping U.S. exports competitive as Brazilian farmers withhold sales.

  • The September corn options expire on Friday. The corn market may trade choppy going into options expiration as price flow to large areas of open interest for both September puts and calls.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures fell Tuesday after failing to break key resistance at $10.50 in November contracts. September closed 7 ¾ cents lower at $10.13, while November lost 7 ½ cents to $10.33 ¾.

  • USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 228,606 MT (8.4 mb) for 2025/26. Despite the sale, new-crop soybean sales remain at a 10-year low for this point in the season.

  • Pro Farmer found soybean pod counts above last year in both Ohio and South Dakota. Ohio averaged 1,287.28 pods per 3’x3′ plot (vs. 1,229.93 in 2024), while South Dakota came in at 1,188.45 (vs. 1,025.89 in 2024).

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions unchanged from last week at 68% good to excellent with 95% of the crop blooming and 82% setting pods, both on par with the 5-year average. Forecasts remain wet through the end of the month.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed lower in sympathy with lower corn and soybeans, in a broad risk off trade today. September Chi lost 4-1/4 cents to 498-1/2, while September KC lost 6-3/4 to 499-1/2. MIAX contracts did post small gains, despite an increase for the spring wheat crop conditions; the September contract gained 3/4 cent to 568-1/2.

  • USDA reported winter wheat harvest at 94% complete, up 4 points from last week. Spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 50% good/excellent, while harvest jumped 20 points to 36% complete.

  • Heavy rainfall in Argentina over the past 24 hours has boosted soil moisture for winter wheat, though excessive wetness is raising root rot concerns in some regions. In Brazil, CONAB pegs planted wheat area at 2.55 million hectares, down 16.7% from last year, but projects 2025 output at 7.81 mmt—just 1% lower—on expectations of a 19% yield increase.

  • LSEG commodities research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 801.38 mmt. This represents a slight bump of 0.3% from their last estimate; higher production forecasts for Russia and the EU were largely offset by declines for the U.S.

  • The state grain buyer of Egypt has made a deal to purchase at least 200,000 mt of French wheat in private deals. They also agreed to purchase smaller amounts from Ukraine and Romania. Last December, their state purchases were taken over by a military organization, who import primarily by private deals. In contrast, the previous state buyer, GASC, imported via international tenders.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 612.25 upside target was lowered to 608.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 549 downside Plan B sale stop has been cancelled.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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8-19 Midday: Weakness In Grains Continues at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn prices continue to lean lower at midday, pressured by good crop conditions and higher yields. December corn is down 2-3/4 to $4.03-1/4.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings slipping one point from last week to 71% good-to-excellent but remains above last year’s 67% good-to-excellent.

  • Corn export inspections were down 30.99% from last week and 13.7% lower from the same week last year at 1.05 mmt. Mexico was the top destination, followed by Japan and South Korea.

  • Soybean futures are drifting lower at midday on pressure from the rest of the grain market. November soybeans are down 9-3/4 to $10.31-1/2, while the January contract is down 8-3/4 to $10.51-1/4

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions unchanged from last week and last year at 68% good-to-excellent.

  • Soybean export inspections totaled 473,605 mt during the week ending August 14. This was 16.6% higher than last year but down 13% from the week prior. Top destinations were Egypt, Mexico, and Taiwan.

  • Wheat prices remain lower at midday, pressured by peace talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine. September Chicago futures are down 3-1/4 to $4.99-1/2 while the December contract is down 3-1/2 to $5.21-1/2

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed spring wheat ratings improving 1 point to 50% good-to-excellent but remain well below last year’s conditions of 73% good-to-excellent.

  • Russia’s IKAR has raised their wheat production estimate by 1 mmt to 85.5 mmt which has added to the downside pressure in wheat prices.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-19 Opening Update: Grains Lower to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets!   While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are lower this morning with September down 3-1/4 cents to $3.79-3/4 and December down 3-3/4 cents to $4.02-3/4. This comes following large yield numbers from the crop tour and good USDA crop ratings.

  • The ProFarmer Crop Tour has wrapped up in Ohio and in South Dakota. In Ohio, corn yield was estimated at 185.69 bpa which compared to 196 bpa from the WASDE report but is above last year’s 183.29 bpa. In South Dakota, yields were seen at 174.18 bpa which was above the USDA guess of 168 bpa.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings fall one point from last week to 71% good to excellent with 97% silking, 72% in dough stage, 27% dented, and 3% mature.

Corn Futures Attempt to Bounce: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. However, losses tied to last week’s bearish USDA report were quickly reversed with a strong finish to the week. With December now the front month, a gap sits below the market between 380 and 400. On the upside, targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap near 430. 

  • Soybeans are slightly higher with the September contract up 1/4 cent at $10.20-3/4. November up 1/4 cent at $10.41-3/4, Sep meal up $5.10 at $285.50, and Sep bean oil down 0.69 cents to 52.58 cents. Soybeans are now technically overbought.

  • The ProFarmer tour saw soybean results above last year in both Ohio and South Dakota. In Ohio, number of pods in a 3’x3′ plot were 1287.28 which compared to 1229.93 last year. In SD, they were 1188.45 compared to 1025.89 last year.

  • The Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions unchanged at 68% good to excellent with 95% of the crop blooming and 82% setting pods, both on par with the 5-year average.

Soybeans Rally Through Resistance: Soybean futures rallied sharply in early August after a bullish USDA report cut 2.5 million acres from 2025 harvested area projections. Prices broke through resistance near 1030 and have since held above it, with this zone now acting as support on any pullback. On the upside, the next key resistance stands at the spring highs near 1080, a level that has capped rallies for the past year. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower with September Chicago down 2-3/4 cents at $5.00, and it did slip below that level overnight. Sep KC wheat is down 4-1/2 cents at $5.02. There has been talk about larger global production despite the USDA lowering that number in the WASDE report.

  • Spring wheat crop conditions rose 1 point from last week to 50% good to excellent with 36% of the crop now harvested, on par with the 5-year average. The winter wheat harvest is now 94% complete which is also on par with recent years.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 395k tons which compared to 415k last week and 374k tons a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and Republic of South Africa.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-18 End of Day: Grains Trade Mixed Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed mostly higher with modest gains, except for the September contract. Strong export demand and worries about dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt bolstered prices.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower after overnight losses and intraday gains faded into the close. November futures remain above all major moving averages but face resistance at $10.60.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed slightly lower after a subdued session, with ample global supplies keeping prices under pressure. Recent rains in the northern Plains likely delayed the U.S. spring wheat harvest.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed mostly higher with modest gains, except for the September contract. Strong export demand and worries about dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt bolstered prices.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of 124,000 metric tons (4.9 million bushels) of 2025/26 corn to an unknown destination, reinforcing strong new-crop export sales despite China’s absence.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were toward the bottom end of expectations as U.S. exporters shipped 1.05 MMT (41 mb) for the week ending August 14. This total was below the 53 mb needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.820 bb. The marketing year ends at the end of August.

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, currently underway, is closely watched by corn and soybean markets. Yield estimates for Ohio and South Dakota will be released tonight, with final national yield projections expected later this week.

  • Drier and warmer-than-normal conditions in the eastern Corn Belt are accelerating corn crop maturation, supporting futures prices but raising concerns about potential yield reductions due to a rushed finish.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,364 contracts between August 5 – August 12, bringing their total position to a net short 176,114 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended lower after overnight losses and intraday gains faded into the close. November futures remain above all major moving averages but face resistance at $10.60. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil tracked crude oil higher.

  • On Friday, NOPA crush numbers were released, and July crush jumped to 195.699 million bushels which was well above the average trade guess of 190.8 mb and was a six-month high for the month of July. It was up 5.6% from the June’s 185.27 mb.

  • Forecasts predict warm summer temperatures and sufficient moisture through the rest of the month, aiding soybean pod fill. The USDA may raise yield estimates in the next report, but lower export demand could increase ending stocks.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 30,660 contracts which reduced their net short position to 35,270 contracts. They sold 10,527 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 44,412 contracts and bought back 24,238 contracts of meal leaving them short 109,309 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 30,660 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 35,270 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed slightly lower after a subdued session, with ample global supplies keeping prices under pressure. Recent rains in the northern Plains likely delayed the U.S. spring wheat harvest.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 14.5 mb, which brings total 25/26 inspections to 177 mb, up 4% from last year. Inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are projected at 875 mb, up 10% from last year.

  • IKAR raised its Russian wheat production estimate by 1 million metric tons to 85.5 million metric tons, compared to the USDA’s 83.5 million metric tons. IKAR also projects Russian wheat exports at 42.5 million metric tons, above the USDA’s 39 million metric tons, adding to global supply pressure.

  • Widespread rain is expected across Argentina’s wheat regions, with southern areas potentially seeing frost but minimal crop damage. Northern areas, where wheat is starting to head, could face damage if frost occurs.

  • According to Chinese customs data, their July wheat and wheat flour imports totaled 410,000 mt, which is down 48.3% year over year. Year to date total wheat and wheat flour imports are down a whopping 76.4% at 2.37 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 596 target was lowered to 594.25.

      • All targets are now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 612.25 upside target was lowered to 608.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,526 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 89,295 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 549 downside Plan B sale stop has been cancelled.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,508 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 50,555 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 755 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 23,458 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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8-18 Midday: Grains Sideways to Higher to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading near unchanged to start the week, following a strong close last Friday, as markets await fresh catalysts amid robust U.S. export demand.

  • Forecasted cooler temperatures and weekend rainfall across much of the northern Corn Belt should support grain fill for the maturing 2025 corn crop.

  • The southern corn harvest is accelerating, with Louisiana’s harvest projected to exceed 65% completion this week and Arkansas nearing 20%. Strong yields, up significantly from last year, are straining storage, prompting some elevators to cut basis bids, pressuring local cash values.

  • Soybean futures are trading near unchanged this morning, holding gains from last week’s rally sparked by the USDA’s 2.4-million-acre cut to soybean harvest estimates in the August WASDE report.

  • New-crop soybean sales for 2025/26 are at their slowest pace in five years, down 20% from last year, with zero Chinese purchases despite this being their typical buying window, keeping export markets subdued.

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour began today, with soybean pod counts expected to be robust due to ample moisture across most of the tour’s Midwest route, potentially signaling strong yields.

  • Wheat futures are slightly lower to start the week hovering just above contact lows for all three wheat classes.

  • Weekend rainfall across the Upper Midwest is likely to further slow the already delayed 2025 spring wheat harvest, lagging behind the average pace. Persistent moisture may also degrade grain quality in some areas.

  • Following Friday’s U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska, President Trump hosts Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and European leaders at the White House this week to negotiate an end to the three-year Russia-Ukraine war. A potential ceasefire could stabilize Black Sea grain exports, impacting wheat and corn prices.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-15 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets!   While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower to start the day with the December contract remaining in its downward channel. Friday’s rally brought it to the top of this channel, but no important technical resistance has been broken yet.

  • Analyst group ASAP Agri increased its estimate for the 2025 Ukrainian corn harvest to 30.9 mmt from its previous estimate of 27.6 mmt citing favorable weather and key rains in July.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn. They sold 2,364 contracts as of August 12 which left them with a net short position of 176,114 contracts.

Corn Futures Slump to Start August: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower following significant gains on Friday and gains of a whopping 55 cents last week in the November contract which was kicked off by a bullish WASDE report. November futures remain above all major moving averages. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.

  • On Friday, NOPA crush numbers were released, and July crush jumped to 195.699 million bushels which was well above the average trade guess of 190.8 mb and was a six-month high for the month of July. It was up 5.6% from the June’s 185.27 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 30,660 contracts which reduced their net short position to 35,270 contracts. They sold 10,527 contracts of bean oil and bought back 24,238 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Test April Lows: Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are likely following the downward momentum of corn and soybeans. September Chicago wheat has managed to hold firm support above the 5-dollar mark.

  • The US dollar is trading higher which may be pressuring the grain complex as a whole. Poor inflation and jobs data released recently, and Jerome Powell will speak at a central bank meeting this week potentially providing a decision on interest rate cuts.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 8,526 contracts which left them with a net short position of 89,295 contracts. They bought back 6,508 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 50,555 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows: KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide: Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-15 End of Day: Grains End Week with Gains Ahead of the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn ended Friday’s session with broad-based gains, supported by strong demand and strength in the soybean market.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures posted gains to close the day, supported by forecasts for drier conditions that raised concerns about late-season crop stress, giving the market a boost.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week slightly higher, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and spillover strength from the corn market, though they lacked the momentum seen in corn and soybeans to close out the week.

  • To see updated U.S. and Global weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – yesterday the 420 puts closed at 28-1/4 cents.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with buying strength, supported by a short-covering rally and technical buying. A firm demand tone, dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt, and strength in the soybean market also lent support. Despite shaking off pressure from a bearish USDA report, December corn futures ended the week down ¼ cent—marking the fourth consecutive week of lower trade.

  • Export demand has remained strong for new crop corn. Current corn sales on the books for the 2025-26 marketing year are the strongest in a decade and trending 208% above this time last year. U.S. corn should stay competitively priced in the near term and export sales should reflect the advantage.

  • With a record corn crop still in the forecast, market attention is turning to late August weather. Currently, the eastern Corn Belt is trending dry, raising concerns that continued dryness could trim top-end yield potential and push the crop to maturity too quickly.

  • The corn market has built an improved technical signal this week after the USDA report. December corn charts established a potential double bottom on Tuesday and Thursday lows. Today, Dec corn closed above the 10-day moving average. Technical strength likely triggered some technical short covering.

  • Next week could bring volatility into the corn market. Pro Farmer will run its annual crop tour from August 18-20, and the corn market will be watching the yield results. The September options expire on Friday, August 22, and markets may show some extra volatility into this event.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking back nearly all of yesterday’s losses ahead of the weekend. A drier forecast for part of the Corn Belt next week may have added support while significantly higher soybean oil prices also helped the soy complex, but soybean meal was lower.

  • NOPA soybean crush was released today and showed 195.699 million bushels crushed in the month of July which was a six-month high and was above trade expectations of 191 million bushels. Domestic demand remains firm for soybean oil, but large crush numbers are causing a glut of soybean meal.

  • Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.

  • For the week, September soybeans gained a whopping 54-1/2 cents to $10.22-1/4 and took back all losses over the past three weeks. November soybeans gained 55 cents to close at $10.42-1/2. September soybean meal gained $6.80 to $283.40 while September soybean oil gained 0.47 cents to 53.18 cents.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Winter wheat futures closed slightly higher today, though spring wheat could not do the same. Despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat just did not seem to find the same footing today as corn and soybeans. A lower close for Matif wheat did not offer any support, and neither did the lack of fresh bullish news today.

  • Western Australia’s grain association, GIWA, increased their wheat harvest estimate by 2.1 mmt to 11.5 mmt due to favorable growing conditions. Despite the increase, this would still be down about 1 mmt from last year’s crop. Nationally, the wheat crop is anticipated to be near last year’s production of 34 mmt.

  • The Ukrainian agriculture ministry reports that their grain harvest has reached 24.8 mmt so far this season. This represents a roughly 13% decline from the 28.5 mmt harvested in a similar timeframe last year. Wheat accounts for 19 mmt of that total, compared to 21.7 mmt a year ago.

  • India has seen plentiful rains due to monsoons, which have helped to replenish water reservoirs. This should be beneficial for winter wheat, much of which relies on irrigation. India’s wheat crop is typically planted in October and November, and the nation’s farm secretary is expecting a higher planted area for winter crops this season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 596 target was lowered to 594.25.

      • All targets are now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 612.25 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 608.50 upside target was raised to 612.25.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • Call buy target is now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 661 upside sale target was lowered to 658.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The upside call buy stop target is now vs the December KC contract.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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8-15 Midday: Grains Continue to Gain Momentum at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher at midday, finally pushing past the bearish sentiment that had pressured the market lower in recent sessions. Support is building as global demand is expected to strengthen, driven by declining U.S. corn prices, which are putting U.S. corn in a highly competitive export position.

  • CONAB has estimated Brazil’s corn production at 137 million tons, notably higher than the USDA’s projection of 132 million tons.

  • Only 4% of the U.S. corn crop is currently experiencing drought conditions. At this stage of development, any weather changes are unlikely to significantly impact yields.

  • Heavy precipitation is expected through midweek in Minnesota, eastern South Dakota, and Michigan, while the rest of the Midwest is forecast to remain mostly dry.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, continuing their recovery from yesterday’s downswing, supported by the U.S.’s strong export competitiveness. Both soybeans and soybean oil are posting gains, while soybean meal is trending slightly lower.

  • Concerns persist over the lack of buying from China, which continues to weigh on soybean markets. Each week without a trade agreement narrows the U.S. export window before Brazil’s new harvest begins in early 2026.

  • The percentage of U.S. soybeans under drought remains unchanged this week at 3%, compared to 6% at the same time last year.

  • ABIOVE raised its Brazil soybean crush forecast to 58.1 million tons, up from 57.8 million tons last month, and increased soybean export projections by 500,000 tons.

  • Wheat is pushing higher at midday, supported by the U.S.’s competitive export position as well as the ongoing rally in corn prices.

  • The wheat market showed limited upward momentum this week, with global prices remaining mostly stagnant. Ongoing harvests in the Black Sea region and the U.S. continue to add supply to the market.

  • President Trump and President Putin are set to meet today in Alaska as both sides explore the possibility of a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine.

  • Ukraine’s harvest has picked up but remains behind last year’s pace, with 19 million tons completed so far compared to 21.7 million tons at this time last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-15 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Lower to Start Day

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets!   While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after December futures ended the day unchanged yesterday and are now just below the $4.00 mark. Futures seem to have found some support around the $3.90 area.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were ok for corn at 1,959k tons but were down sharply from last week’s 3,334k and compared to 921k a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.

  • Estimates for the CONAB report see corn planted acreage increasing to 231,680k hectares, up 121k from last month. Yield is also expected to rise by 198 kg/ha of 15.2%

Corn Futures Slump to Start August: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning following sharp losses yesterday that were mainly caused by lower soybean oil and fears over poor export demand from China. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning.

  • Projections for the NOPA crush report see July soybean crush at 190.8 million bushels. This would be up 4.3% from July last year and up 2.7% from the previous month.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales fall from last week to 755k tons. This compared to 1,013k last week and 1,566k a year ago at this time. Top buyers were unknown, Mexico, and the Netherlands.

Soybeans Test April Lows: Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago wheat slightly higher while KC and Minneapolis trade lower. Today, President Trump and Putin will meat to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, and the results may impact wheat.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were decent for wheat at 723k tons. This compared to 738k last week and 273k a year ago. Top buyers were South Korea, Mexico, and the Philippines.

  • In Germany, the 2025 grain output forecast has been raised for both wheat and corn. Total grains are estimated at 43 mmt up from 41.7 mmt last month with wheat at 22.4 mmt compared to 21.6 mmt a month ago. This is due to larger acreage and better yields than expected. 

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows: KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide: Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.