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12-16 Opening Update: Grains Higher to Start the Week, Wheat Leading

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 443.5 1.5
JUL ’25 454.25 1.25
DEC ’25 440.75 1.75

Soybeans

JAN ’25 992 3.75
MAR ’25 997.5 2.5
NOV ’25 1006.75 0.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 556 3.75
MAY ’25 565.75 3.5
JUL ’25 572 3.25

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 563 6
MAY ’25 570.75 5.5
JUL ’25 578 4.75

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 603 4.5
JUL ’25 615 1.5
SEP ’25 624 1.25

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6141.5 15.75

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 70.14 -0.68

Gold

FEB ’25 2682.1 6.3

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after prices began to slip last Wednesday likely driven by farmer selling. Today’s export sales report is expected to show firm demand today.

  • In Brazil, corn prices are firm, but CONAB and other analysts are expecting that 24/25 corn production will exceed last year’s by 3.4% and reach 119.63 mmt.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn as of December 10 in a big way. They bought 77,670 contracts which increased their net long position to 165,890 contracts. Since the July low at 353,983 shorts, the funds have bought 519,873 net long contracts. This swing in fund money generated a 48 cent rally off the lows.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning as trade anticipates good export inspections numbers as well as strong NOPA crush numbers. Soybean meal is leading the complex higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • The NOPA crush report will be released at 11am, and expectations are that it will total 196.7 million bushels which would be 3 mb shy of the October record. Large crush numbers have created excess soybean meal supplies.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 13,897 contracts which reduced their net short position to 58,320 contracts as of December 10.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way. European wheat futures have rallied, and concerns remain about the Russian wheat crop, both situations favorable to US prices.

  • In Argentina, estimates for the 24/25 wheat crop production have been increased by 0.5 mmt with over half the crop now harvested. Larger producer, Russia, may reportedly see cuts to their production which would be friendly.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 2,607 contracts reducing their net short position to 66,779 contracts. Funds bought back 1,994 contracts reducing their net short position to 36,436 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-13 End of Day: Markets Close in the Red Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • March corn closed mid-range and lower for the third consecutive day as producer selling and concerns over potentially slowing demand kept buyers on the sidelines.

  • Despite a fresh flash sale, soybeans ended the week on a sour note, closing near the lower end of the week’s range, as the potential for a large South American crop continues to weigh on the market.

  • Losses in corn and soybeans spilled over into the wheat complex, compounding negativity from rising crop projections for both Argentina’s and Australia’s wheat harvests.

  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity to make catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market is trading around the 450 area in the March ’24 contract. If you missed previous sales recommendations, this level offers a good opportunity to catch up on sales, especially with potential heavy resistance just overhead near the 200-day moving average. Additionally, making a sale now could help meet any capital needs for your operation.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week on a three-day losing streak, pressured by producer selling and concerns over softening demand. The most active March futures finished the week 2 cents higher but were down 9 ¼ cents from the week’s highs.

  • Price action this week was challenging for corn bulls, as a friendly USDA report with a larger-than-expected drop in carryout and a strong demand shift only resulted in small weekly gains.

  • Selling pressure across grain markets weighed on corn Friday, with aggressive wheat and soybean selling keeping buyers sidelined. Weak export sales and the strong US dollar continue to reduce US grain competitiveness.

  • Flash export sales of corn remain quiet, with the last USDA announcement (excluding a November 25 sale to Mexico) on November 13. Higher prices and a strong dollar have curbed export activity over the past month.

  • South American weather remains pivotal for grain markets in 2025. Minimal weather issues so far have kept significant weather premium out of the corn and soybean markets, with strong South American production expected.

Above: Front-month corn hit resistance in the 450 area and reversed. Initial support may come in near 442, with more significant support around 425. A rally with a close above 452 ¼ could set the market up to test 465.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and, while still within the week’s trading range, are now near the lower end. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal posting more significant losses.

  • For the week, January soybeans lost 5 ½ cents within a relatively tight range. Nov ‘25 soybeans gained 1 ¼ cents, January soybean meal dropped $1.20, and January soybean oil fell 0.36 cents. Overall, it was a quiet week of trade with little fresh news to drive a trend.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 200,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 24/25. While encouraging, the market reaction was muted following yesterday’s poor export sales numbers.

  • Yesterday, CONAB released revised estimates for corn and soybean production. Soybean production was raised slightly to 166.21 mmt from 166.14 mmt, increasing soybean ending stocks marginally.

Above: The soybean market continues to grind sideways to higher, with support at 975, moving average resistance near 1000, and heavier resistance in the 1007–1013 range. A close below 975 could trigger a slide toward 940, while a close above 1013 may set up a retest of 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses across the board again today, pressured by corn and soybeans drifting lower. March Chicago closed below its 21-day moving average, while Kansas City and Minneapolis March futures held above theirs.

  • Argentina’s wheat harvest advanced 16% to 64% complete, with production estimated at 18.6 mmt, above the USDA’s 17.5 mmt and last year’s 15.1 mmt, according to the BAGE.

  • China’s statistics bureau stated that their grain production reached a record 706.5 mmt in 2024, up 1.6% from last year. Wheat production is forecast at 140.1 mmt, aligning with USDA estimates.

  • Western Australia’s wheat harvest is wrapping up, with estimates raised to 10.83 mmt, its third-largest on record and up from November’s 10.33 mmt forecast.

  • Russia reduced its wheat export tax by 15% to 4,136.50 Rubles/mt until Dec. 24. Meanwhile, shipments to Syria have been halted over payment concerns linked to its new government.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat reversed after hitting resistance near 567 and may be on track to retest the 536 area. If a bullish trigger turns prices higher, a close above 571 ½ could retest the 577 area before targeting the 590–595 region.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-13 Midday: Markets Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 441.75 -1.75
JUL ’25 453 -2
DEC ’25 439 -2.75
Soybeans
JAN ’25 988.25 -7.5
MAR ’25 995 -8.25
NOV ’25 1006.25 -7.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 552.25 -6.25
MAY ’25 562.25 -6
JUL ’25 568.75 -6.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 558 -4.75
MAY ’25 566 -4.25
JUL ’25 573.75 -4.25
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 601.25 -1.25
JUL ’25 616 -2
SEP ’25 625.25 -2.25
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6121.25 -6.5
Crude Oil
FEB ’25 70.33 0.67
Gold
FEB ’25 2679.3 -30.1

  • The corn market is quietly trading lower and near the bottom of its very tight 2 ½ cent range. It found initial support near the 20-day moving average, with selling pressure remaining from yesterday’s weak export sales.

  • Weekly export sales were at an eleven-week low for the week ending December 5, totaling 947,000 mt. However, they remain 29% ahead of last year.

  • The market’s concern is whether these strong sales are front-loaded ahead of the incoming Trump administration.

  • The strong US dollar, which makes US exports more expensive on the world market, combined with yesterday’s weak export sales report and solid crop estimates out of South America, is keeping sellers engaged.

  • Soybeans remain lower at midday as sellers maintain control following yesterday’s weak export sales report, with prospects for a large South American soybean crop remaining high.

  • The USDA reported private export sales totaling 200,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Conab raised its projection for Brazil’s soybean crop slightly to 166.21 mmt, while Abiove increased its estimate to 168.7 mmt. By comparison, the USDA’s estimate stands at 169 mmt.

  • While yesterday’s weekly export sales came in well below expectations, total commitments remain 12% ahead of last year.

  • After showing small gains in the overnight session, the wheat complex turned mostly lower as technical selling reemerged following yesterday’s weak trade.

  • According to GIWA, Western Australia is on track for its third-largest grain harvest on record, expected to produce 10.83 mmt of wheat, which is 0.5 mmt higher than November’s estimate.

  • Argentina’s 24/25 wheat production estimate has been raised by 0.5 mmt, with over half the crop now harvested. In contrast, reports suggest that Russia, a larger producer, may face production cuts, potentially supporting prices.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-13 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Lower, Wheat Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 443 -0.5
JUL ’25 454.5 -0.5
DEC ’25 441.5 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 992.5 -3.25
MAR ’25 999 -4.25
NOV ’25 1010 -4

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 559.25 0.75
MAY ’25 569 0.75
JUL ’25 575.5 0.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 564 1.25
MAY ’25 571.75 1.5
JUL ’25 579 1

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 604 1.5
JUL ’25 619.5 1.5
SEP ’25 629.5 2

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6149.5 21.75

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 70.23 0.57

Gold

FEB ’25 2689.3 -20.1

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning as it continues to slide after the March contract failed at the 200-day moving average on Wednesday.

  • Today is first notice day for December corn, and there were 723 total deliveries. Farmer selling has picked up with the recent rally.

  • US ethanol stocks fell by 1.5% to 22.648m bbl, and analysts were expecting 23.227m bbl. Plant production came in at 1.078m b/d compared to trade guesses of 1.073m.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning but remain in their narrow range with little fresh news. Yesterday’s export sales were disappointing, and Brazilian weather is conducive to the crop. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.

  • Today is first notice day for December meal and bean oil, and there were 2,521 deliveries against December meal and 782 deliveries against December bean oil.

  • In India, the demand for vegetable oil in November surged to a 4-month high thanks to a strong festival season demand. Imports rose to 1.63 mmt which was up 10.4% from a month ago.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC leading the way higher. Yesterday’s export sales report was nothing exciting for wheat, but trade will more likely focus on global production.

  • It is first notice day for December wheat, and there have been 50 total deliveries against Chicago wheat and 164 total deliveries against KC wheat.

  • In Argentina, estimates for the 24/25 wheat crop production have been increased by 0.5 mmt with over half the crop now harvested. Larger producer, Russia, may reportedly see cuts to their production which would be friendly.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-12 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Slip, While Beans Close Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market slid lower and closed just above session lows on weak export sales and technical selling after failing to trade through resistance in Wednesday’s session.

  • Despite poor export sales, the soybean market managed to settle fractionally mixed after rebounding off session lows, as it continues to trudge along in a sideways to upward trend. Soybean oil closed higher, while meal drifted lower.

  • The wheat complex reversed its trend of multiple higher closes, with all three classes closing toward session lows as they were weighed down by lower Matif wheat, a stronger US dollar, and weaker corn.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor and South American GRACE-based Drought Indicator, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity to make catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market is trading around the 450 area in the March ’24 contract. If you missed previous sales recommendations, this level offers a good opportunity to catch up on sales, especially with potential heavy resistance just overhead near the 200-day moving average. Additionally, making a sale now could help meet any capital needs for your operation.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended losses after Wednesday’s reversal, pressured by weak overnight trade and disappointing weekly export sales.

  • Weekly US corn export sales totaled 946,400 mt (37.3 mb) for the week ending December 5, down 45% from last week and 32% from the 4-week average. Colombia was the top buyer, with total sales 29% ahead of last year.

  • CONAB projected Brazil’s 24/25 corn crop at 119.6 mmt, down 200,000 mt from November but still a record if realized.

  • Higher US corn prices and a stronger dollar have boosted the competitiveness of Brazilian, Argentinian, and Ukrainian corn, limiting US export demand. Flash sales have been sparse since mid-November, reflecting increased global competition.

  • Narrow corn spreads widened on Thursday, with deferred contracts (May, July, and September) needing strength to incentivize producers to hold grain into the second half of the marketing year.

Above: Front-month corn hit resistance in the 450 area and reversed. Initial support may come in near 442, with more significant support around 425. A rally with a close above 452 ¼ could set the market up to test 465.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed slightly higher despite weak export sales and have traded within a tight, minor upward range over the past month. Soybean meal fell, while soybean oil gained.

  • Private exporters reported 334,000 mt of soybean sales to unknown destinations for 24/25, but flash sales have slowed as Brazilian offers grow more competitive.

  • Weekly export sales totaled 43.1 mb for 24/25, below trade expectations, while shipments of 68.3 mb exceeded the 26.7 mb weekly pace needed to meet USDA estimates. Key destinations included China, Spain, and Mexico.

  • Strong exports have kept soybean prices above $10, while anticipation of a large South American crop has capped gains. Prices may shift with a drop in USDA’s US production estimates or on any Brazilian weather issues.

Above: The soybean market continues to grind sideways to higher, with support at 975, moving average resistance near 1000, and heavier resistance in the 1007–1013 range. A close below 975 could trigger a slide toward 940, while a close above 1013 may set up a retest of 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all classes, pressured by weaker Paris milling wheat, a stronger US dollar, and spillover from corn.

  • Weekly wheat export sales rose 10.7 mb for 24/25, but shipments of 7.3 mb fell short of the 17.2 mb weekly pace needed to meet the USDA’s 850 mb export target. Commitments total 582 mb, up 9% from last year.

  • CONAB trimmed Brazil’s wheat production estimate from 8.11 mmt to 8.06 mmt, aligning with the USDA. Meanwhile, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s estimate to 19.3 mmt, above the USDA’s 17.5 mmt, citing better-than-expected yields.

  • India halved wheat stockpile limits for traders and retailers, aiming to control prices and ensure availability. Limits dropped to 1,000 tons for traders and 5 tons for retailers, effective through March.

  • High export demand may push Ukraine’s wheat prices $20-$25 per tonne from December to January. Contracts for December reached 1.1 mmt, with 9.13 mmt already exported this season toward a 16.2 mmt limit.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat reversed after hitting resistance near 567 and may be on track to retest the 536 area. If a bullish trigger turns prices higher, a close above 571 ½ could retest the 577 area before targeting the 590–595 region.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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12-12 Midday: Disappointing Export Sales Lead Grains Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 443.75 -4.5
JUL ’25 454.75 -3.5
DEC ’25 442 -2
Soybeans
JAN ’25 995 -0.5
MAR ’25 1001.25 -1.5
NOV ’25 1012 -2.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 559 -4.25
MAY ’25 568.75 -4
JUL ’25 575.5 -4
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 563.5 -3.75
MAY ’25 571 -3.75
JUL ’25 579 -3.25
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 604.75 -2.25
JUL ’25 621 -1.5
SEP ’25 630.75 -1.25
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6154.75 -5
Crude Oil
FEB ’25 68.95 -0.92
Gold
FEB ’25 2704.4 -52.3

  • Corn continues to trend lower at midday on weak export sales announcements and nearly unchanged South American production estimates.

  • Weekly export sales for corn came in at an 11-week low of 37 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.383 billion bushels which is up 29% from last year.

  • Conab lowered their Brazilian corn production estimate slightly from 119.81 mmt to 119.63 mmt.

  • Rosario Grain Exchange left their Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 50-51 mmt.

  • Yesterday’s ethanol data showed corn usage for the week ending December 6th at 108.76 mb, which is well above the average weekly pace needed to hit the USDA’s forecast of 5.500 billion bushels.

  • Soybeans have reversed lower at midday after weekly export sales came in below expectations. March soybeans are finding support right on the 13-day moving average but continue to trade in a narrow window this week.

  • Weekly export sales for soybeans came in below expectations at 43 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.370 billion bushels which is 12% higher than a year ago.

  • The USDA confirmed the sale of 334,000 mt of US soybeans to unknown destinations for 24/25. This could help to limit any additional downside.

  • Conab’s soybean production estimate for Brazil came in below expectations of 168.63 mmt at 166.21.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange kept their soybean production estimate for Argentina unchanged at 53-53.5 mmt.

  • Wheat reverses lower at midday on disappointing export sales. March SRW futures are currently trading above the 13-day moving average but remain about 20 cents below the 50-day moving average.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at the low end of expectations at 11 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 582 mb which is 9% higher than a year ago.

  • Conab slightly lowered their Brazil wheat production estimate to 8.06 mmt from 8.11 mmt last month.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange modestly raised their Argentine wheat production estimate from 18.8 mmt last month to 19.3 mmt.

  • Fundamentally, there are still plenty of bullish factors that could provide momentum to the upside. Lower projected exports for Russia in December, dry weather forecasts in the US Plains states and tighter global supplies are just a few.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-12 Opening Update: Corn Lower, Soybeans and Wheat Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 447.25 -1
JUL ’25 457.75 -0.5
DEC ’25 443.75 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 996 0.5
MAR ’25 1003.5 0.75
NOV ’25 1014.25 -0.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 564 0.75
MAY ’25 574 1.25
JUL ’25 580.25 0.75

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 567.5 0.25
MAY ’25 575.25 0.5
JUL ’25 582.75 0.5

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 607 0
JUL ’25 621.5 -1
SEP ’25 630 -2

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6150.75 -9

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 69.88 0.01

Gold

FEB ’25 2743.2 -13.5

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after the March contract traded right up against the 200-day moving average yesterday before reversing lower. The last time corn traded at the 200-day way in May.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,900k tons with an average guess of 1,369k tons. This would compare to 1,755k last week and 1,419k last year.

  • US ethanol stocks fell by 1.5% to 22.648m bbl, and analysts were expecting 23.227m bbl. Plant production came in at 1.078m b/d compared to trade guesses of 1.073m.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning but remain in a firmly sideways trading pattern with little news to cause them to move. Both soybean meal and oil are mixed this morning and trading either side of unchanged.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 900k and 2,200k tons with an average guess of 1,713k tons. This would compare to 2,313k tons last week and 999k last year.

  • In India, the demand for vegetable oil in November surged to a 4-month high thanks to a strong festival season demand. Imports rose to 1.63 mmt which was up 10.4% from a month ago.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. Wheat has been on a steady uptrend since making its contract lows on December 4 and has gained 25 cents from that low.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 250k and 600k tons with an average guess of 370k tons. This would compare to 378k last week and 1,509k the previous year.

  • In Argentina, estimates for the 24/25 wheat crop production have been increased by 0.5 mmt with over half the crop now harvested. Larger producer, Russia, may reportedly see cuts to their production which would be friendly.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-11 End of Day: Markets Close Mostly Firm, With Nearby Corn Weaker

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market ran out of gas as it hit technical resistance near 451 in the March contract, where producer selling likely outweighed the buying support.

  • January soybeans failed to hold gains over the $10 mark and closed mid-range as bear spreading weighed on the front month contracts while keeping the deferreds supported.

  • Higher Matif wheat and the prospect of Russian farmers switching upwards of 2.5 million acres from wheat to oilseeds kept the wheat complex supported despite a rising US dollar.

  • To see the updated South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity to make catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market is trading around the 450 area in the March ’24 contract. If you missed previous sales recommendations, this level offers a good opportunity to catch up on sales, especially with potential heavy resistance just overhead near the 200-day moving average. Additionally, making a sale now could help meet any capital needs for your operation.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn’s four-day rally ended as producer selling and technical resistance near 451 stalled front-end buying strength following Tuesday’s bullish USDA report.

  • March corn futures stalled around 451, near the 200-day moving average, where buying support faded and producer selling likely capped gains.

  • Higher US corn prices and a stronger dollar have made Brazilian, Argentinian, and Ukrainian corn more competitive, potentially limiting US export demand and upward price momentum.

  • Narrow corn spreads, reflecting strong short-term demand, saw reversal action. Deferred contracts (May, July, and September) may need to strengthen to encourage producers to hold bushels for the second half of the marketing year.

  • The stronger corn prices and dollar may boost Safrinha corn planting in Brazil this summer, with forecasts now suggesting year-over-year growth in planted areas despite earlier expectations of a reduction.

Above: Front-month corn broke through 442 resistance and could be on its way to testing the 465 June high. If prices happen to retreat, initial support may be found near 442 with additional near 50-day moving average, around 425.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans posted a small gain for the second day, staying in a tight range despite losses in soybean meal and oil, with May meal the only soy product to close higher.

  • Rumors suggest China purchased a few US soybean cargoes for January and February from the PNW, with US soybeans competitive against Brazil for January shipments.

  • The USDA report was uneventful for soybeans, leaving US production and ending stocks unchanged while only raising Argentina’s production from 51.0 mmt to 52.0 mmt.

  • Post-WASDE, the soybean market focus will shift to South American weather as critical production periods approach. Most of Brazil is expected to see favorable conditions over the next week.

Above: The soybean market continues to drift sideways, with support at 975 and resistance in the 1007–1013 range. A close below 975 could trigger a slide toward 940, while a close above 1013 may set up a retest of 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted small gains in Chicago and Kansas City but was closer to unchanged in Minneapolis. March Matif wheat’s second straight gain offered support, though a stronger US Dollar Index potentially capped the upside.

  • IKAR reports Russian farmers may switch up to 1 million hectares from wheat to oilseeds due to thin margins.

  • EU soft wheat exports reached 10.24 mmt as of December 8, down 29% year over year. Tight global wheat stocks among major exporters may continue to support prices.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: March KC wheat remains rangebound between 536 and 577. A close below 536 could put the market at risk of testing the August low of 527 ¼. Conversely, a bullish trigger could lead to resistance near 567 before a retest of 577.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-11 Midday: Grains Extend Tuesday’s Rally

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 449.5 0.5
JUL ’25 459 1.75
DEC ’25 443.25 1.5
Soybeans
JAN ’25 999.25 4.5
MAR ’25 1005 4.75
NOV ’25 1014 4.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 566.75 5
MAY ’25 576 5.5
JUL ’25 582.5 5.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 569 3.25
MAY ’25 576.25 3.25
JUL ’25 583.75 3
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 609 2.5
JUL ’25 624.25 2.75
SEP ’25 632 2
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6155.25 42
Crude Oil
FEB ’25 69.27 1
Gold
FEB ’25 2753.9 35.5

  • The corn market is firm at midday as it struggles to extend Tuesday’s rally against overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average in the March contract.

  • The December WASDE report revealed stronger-than-expected demand for US corn. The USDA increased export estimates by 150 mb and ethanol use by 50 mb, bringing total projected corn usage for the 24/25 marketing year to 15.19 bb—a record high by 221 mb if realized.

  • Managed funds are estimated to have bought 24,000 corn futures contracts on yesterday’s rally, extending their net long position to a net 135,000 contracts.

  • Open interest in corn also increased yesterday by about 27,000 contracts suggesting fresh money is entering the corn market on the long side.

  • Soybeans are higher at midday, supported by gains in soybean oil and potential further short-covering.

  • The December WASDE report left the US balance sheet unchanged, with only a small increase in Argentina’s production and no changes to Brazil’s production.

  • Yesterday’s rally in the soybean market prompted managed fund short covering, with funds covering an estimated 5,000 soybean futures contracts, bringing their estimated net short to 74,000 contracts.

  • Open interest in soybean futures decreased by about 10,500 contracts during yesterday’s rally, suggesting short position holders are exiting the market.

  • The wheat complex is higher at midday as traders look to extend Tuesday’s gains on friendly USDA numbers.

  • As of December 8, stocks of hard red spring wheat held in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses were down 26% from this time last year, at 13.959 million bushels.

  • The December WASDE report leaned bullish, with the USDA lowering US ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 795 mb. This reduction was much greater than expected by the trade and has helped support the market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-11 Opening Update: Corn Continues to March Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 449.75 0.75
JUL ’25 458 0.75
DEC ’25 442.75 1

Soybeans

JAN ’25 993 -1.75
MAR ’25 999.25 -1
NOV ’25 1008.5 -1.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 563.75 2
MAY ’25 571.75 1.25
JUL ’25 578.5 1.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 567.25 1.5
MAY ’25 574.5 1.5
JUL ’25 582 1.25

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 607.25 0.75
JUL ’25 621.75 0.25
SEP ’25 630 0

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6119.5 6.25

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 69.22 0.95

Gold

FEB ’25 2727.1 8.7

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after yesterday’s supportive WASDE report. March corn is within a penny this morning of where the corn rally ran out of gas in early October. A close above $4.50 would look technically supportive to a continued move higher. 

  • The demand side of the US corn balance sheet exceeded expectations on the December WASDE report. The USDA raised their export estimate by 150 mb and ethanol use by 50 mb. Total corn usage for the 24/25 marketing year is now estimated at 15.19 bb, a record by 221 mb if realized. 

  • World corn ending stocks on yesterday’s report came in at 296.44 mmt, just slightly above 20/21 for the lowest ending stocks number in the last decade as corn demand continues to impress at these lower prices.

  • Soybeans are continuing their grind sideways this morning after an uneventful USDA report yesterday. January soybeans over the last 12 trading sessions have settled within a 15 cent range between $9.80 and $9.95. 

  • Unlike corn, the entire US soybean balance sheet was left unchanged from last month in the December WASDE report. A small increase to Argentina’s production estimate and no change to Brazil’s estimate was seen as a small win for soybeans. 

  • Focus for the soybean market post WASDE report will shift back to South American weather as we are into a critical time-frame for soybean production in both Brazil and Argentina. Over the next week the forecast for most of Brazil looks to continue favorable while dryness in Argentina may start to expand as showers become more spotty and less widespread than recently. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as prices continue to recover from their recent contract lows.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE brought a slightly friendly surprise to wheat with a 20 mb drop in US ending stocks, now down to 795 mb on higher exports. 

  • March KC wheat futures have managed to close higher in six consecutive sessions but now are staring down the barrel of the 100 and 50-day moving averages just above the market. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.