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12-26 Opening Update: Grains Will Resume Trade at 8:30am Following Christmas Holiday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 448.5 0
JUL ’25 457.25 0
DEC ’25 437.25 0

Soybeans

JAN ’25 975.25 0
MAR ’25 981.25 0
NOV ’25 994 0

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 534.75 0
MAY ’25 545.25 0
JUL ’25 552.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 543.75 0
MAY ’25 551.75 0
JUL ’25 560.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 589.5 0
JUL ’25 605 0
SEP ’25 614.25 0

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6078.75 -19.25

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 70.39 0.29

Gold

FEB ’25 2640.7 5.2

  • Corn ended the day on Tuesday near the top of its recent range and near resistance at $4.50 in the March contract. Corn has technically been in an uptrend since August, but has been unable to break $4.50.

  • Estimates for 2025 corn planted acreage see numbers higher than last year. This year, 91.8 million acres were planted, and 94.6 million are projected for next year.

  • Basis levels in corn have begun to slip as higher futures have encouraged producers to make cash sales.

  • Soybeans closed 4 cents higher on Tuesday, and while prices have recovered from their recent contract lows at $9.47 in the March contract, are still in an overall down trend.

  • The Brazilian real is already trading today and is higher this morning which could give an indication of higher soybean prices as they have been positively correlated recently.

  • While the majority of Brazil has seen very good weather, the southern part of the country along with Argentina may now be facing a period of dry weather which could be friendly for soybean meal prices.

  • All three wheat classes ended the day lower on Tuesday and remain in downtrends. The dollar is trading slightly lower which could lend some support to wheat futures.

  • Turkey announced that it will ease their strict wheat import policy next year in an effort to increase supplies and lower domestic prices.

  • SovEcon has downgraded the 24/25 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7 mmt from 44.1 mmt previously as a result of lower expected production.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-24 Midday: Wheat Reverses Lower at Midday, Corn and Soybeans Remain Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 448.25 0.5
JUL ’25 456.75 1
DEC ’25 438 0.75
Soybeans
JAN ’25 972.75 3.25
MAR ’25 978.75 3.25
NOV ’25 991.25 4.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 534.5 -6
MAY ’25 545.25 -5.75
JUL ’25 552.75 -5.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 543.5 -7.5
MAY ’25 552 -7
JUL ’25 561 -6
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 588.75 -6.75
JUL ’25 604.75 -5.75
SEP ’25 619.5 0
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6080.75 44.75
Crude Oil
FEB ’25 70.16 0.92
Gold
FEB ’25 2631.6 3.4

  • Corn continues to trade in the green at midday on some flow over support from yesterday’s export sales announcement of 132,000 mt for delivery to unknown destinations for 24/25.

  • Yesterday’s corn export inspections came in at 44.2 mb for the week ending December 19. This was down slightly from the week prior and the same week last year.

  • Deral estimates that Parana’s first corn crop will now reach 2.64 mmt compared to 2.59 mmt in their previous estimate.

  • China announced a 10-year plan to increase whole grain consumption. The plan states that it will encourage local governments to implement policies that will boost whole grain consumption while also citing the health benefits associated with whole grains.

  • Soybeans remain firm at midday on support from strong export inspections yesterday.

  • Soybean export inspections came in at 64.2 mb for the week ending December 19. This was higher than last week and last year.

  • Deral slightly raises Prana’s soybean production to 22.2 mmt, up just 0.5% from their previous forecast, but up 20% from last year.

  • Weather forecasts in Brazil remain ideal for the next two weeks, which could continue to boost their production chances.

  • All three wheat classes have reversed lower at midday on rainfall across the southern portion of the Plains states. Weather forecasts over the next 10 days call for rain for the rest of the region which could limit upside potential.

  • Yesterday’s wheat export inspections came in at 14.8 mb for the week ending December 19. This was up slightly from the previous week.

  • Sovecon lowered their 24/25 Russian wheat export forecast from 44.1 mmt to 43.7 mmt. This is due to lower expected production across the country.

  • Turkey announced they will ease their wheat import policy in the new year. This will allow the private sector to purchase more wheat from abroad than previously allowed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-24 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Ahead of Christmas

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 447.5 1.25
JUL ’25 456 1.5
DEC ’25 438.75 1

Soybeans

JAN ’25 975.25 0.75
MAR ’25 980.25 1
NOV ’25 990 2.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 537.25 4.25
MAY ’25 548.25 5.5
JUL ’25 554.75 4.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 550 5.25
MAY ’25 557.75 5.25
JUL ’25 566.5 5.75

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 596.25 6
JUL ’25 612.5 6.5
SEP ’25 620.5 5.5

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6002.25 0.5

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 69.27 -0.19

Gold

FEB ’25 2630.7 -14.4

  • Corn is higher to start the day in quiet Christmas eve trade. Prices remain near the high end of their recent trading range with March corn struggling to break $4.50.

  • The US inspected 44.2 million bushels of corn for export for the week ending December 19 according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report. This was slightly lower than last week and the previous year.

  • Basis levels in corn have begun to slip as higher futures have encouraged producers to make cash sales.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning to start today’s shortened holiday trade. Yesterday, prices were pressured we weaker Brazilian currency compared to the dollar. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report was strong with 64.2 million bushels of soybeans inspected for export as of December 19. This exceeded last week’s inspections and the previous year’s.

  • While the majority of Brazil has seen very good weather, the southern part of the country along with Argentina may now be facing a period of dry weather which could be friendly for soybean meal prices.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC slightly lower and Minneapolis higher. Prices were stronger yesterday as buyers take advantage of cheap US wheat.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 14.8 million bushels of wheat inspected for export and was primarily headed to Mexico, Indonesia, and Japan. Inspections were slightly above last week’s.

  • SovEcon has downgraded the 24/25 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7 mmt from 44.1 mmt previously as a result of lower expected production.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-23 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed as the Shortened Holiday Week Kicks Off

ByGrain Market Insider

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After a day of quiet back-and-forth trade within a tight 3-cent range, the corn market settled mixed. The front months closed higher, supported by additional demand, while new-crop contracts settled fractionally weaker.

  • Bear spreading and weakness in the meal market, driven by a forecast of rain in Central Argentina, pushed soybeans lower. The front months closed near session lows, while new-crop contracts settled mid-range and fractionally lower.

  • Despite a drop in the US dollar, the wheat complex posted gains across all three classes, supported by reports of a cap on Russian wheat exports and sharply higher Matif wheat prices.

  • To see the updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11, with the next catch-up target at 455 (Mar ‘25).

  • If you have followed all prior sales recommendations and are comfortable with cash flow until spring, Grain Market Insider advises holding steady for now.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the day mixed after a session of quiet, two-sided trade within a tight 3-cent range. The nearby March contract closed just off the day’s high, supported by solid demand, while Dec ’25 finished mid-range and fractionally lower.

  • This morning, the USDA announced private export sales of 132,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Export inspections for corn for the week ending December 19 came in at the upper end of expectations at 1.122 million metric tons. While inspections were lower than the same week last year, total inspections remain 27% higher season-to-date.

  • With a shortened holiday week and year-end quickly approaching, trade could remain choppy on light volume as traders hesitate to extend their risk, opting instead to square positions ahead of year-end to protect profits.

  • Grain markets are scheduled to close at 12:05 PM CST on Tuesday and remain closed until 8:30 AM Thursday for the Christmas holiday.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 436, with additional support near 425. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 451 with additional resistance near 465.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 6,475 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net long 165,890 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, with the front months leading the decline due to bear spreading. There was relatively little news today due to holiday trade, but the US dollar was higher against the Brazilian real, which tends to dampen export demand. Soybean meal was lower, while soybean oil was higher.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.

  • China is seemingly loading up on US soybeans before potential tariffs take place under the Trump administration. Sinograin has purchased 500,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery in March-April, reportedly preferring the quality of US soybeans. However, there are concerns that export demand may slide next year if tariffs are implemented.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans. They sold 17,932 contracts, leaving them net short 76,252 contracts.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support between 950 and 945. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 985 with additional resistance between 990 and 1004.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,932 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 76,252 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite some strength in the US dollar, all three wheat classes posted solid gains, potentially supported by recent news that Russia intends to cap further wheat exports at 10.6 mmt for the second half of the marketing year, after shipping a record-large 29 mmt in the first half. Sharply higher Matif wheat futures also offered additional support. Volatility may increase given the shortened trading week and lower trade volume surrounding Christmas.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 14.8 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 439 mb, up 34% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace; wheat exports for 24/25 are projected at 850 mb, up 20% year-over-year.

  • From a technical perspective, Chicago wheat futures had become oversold following the recent price tumble. Daily stochastics now show a crossover signal, which could indicate a near-term bottom and suggest the market is due for a correction to the upside.

  • Last week, managed funds added over 20,000 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat, bringing the total short to about 87,000 contracts. This could leave the market primed for a short-covering rally, but fresh bullish news may be needed to ignite it, especially as both the Australian and Argentine wheat crops are larger than last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 20,622 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 87,401 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 20- and 50-day moving averages around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,369 contracts between December 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 33,067 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,045 contracts bringing their total position to a net short 27,017 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina one-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-23 Midday: Mixed Markets at Midday in Quiet Pre-Holiday Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 446.5 0.25
JUL ’25 454.75 0.25
DEC ’25 437.25 -0.5
Soybeans
JAN ’25 968 -6.5
MAR ’25 974 -5.25
NOV ’25 984.75 -2.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 540 7
MAY ’25 550.25 7.5
JUL ’25 557.25 7
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 551.5 6.75
MAY ’25 559.25 6.75
JUL ’25 566.5 5.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 595.25 5
JUL ’25 610.5 4.5
SEP ’25 620 5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5994 -7.75
Crude Oil
FEB ’25 68.81 -0.65
Gold
FEB ’25 2625.4 -19.7

  • The corn market is mixed and near unchanged in quiet two-sided trade with little fresh news in a shortened holiday week.

  • This morning the USDA announced private export sales totaling 132,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC report, managed funds sold 6,475 corn contracts during the week ending December 17, reducing their net long position to 159,415 contracts as of Tuesday, December 17.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn planting progress has reached 65.8%, up from 55.6% the previous week.

  • Soybeans are trading near the low end of their trading range despite a flash sale to China, with pressure coming from lower soybean meal on reports of unexpected weekend rainfall in Argentina.

  • This morning the USDA announced private export sales totaling 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds selling 17,932 soybean futures contracts as of Tuesday, December 17, increasing their net short position to 76,252 contracts.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 76.6% of Argentina’s soybean crop has been planted, up from 65.7% the previous week, with a total planted area of 18.6 million hectares.

  • The wheat complex is higher across all three classes as traders begin to square positions ahead of the Christmas holiday break with little fresh news to trade.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds selling 20,622 Chicago wheat contracts, increasing their net short position to 87,401 contracts. In KC wheat, funds covered 3,369 contracts, reducing their net short position to 33,067 contracts. Meanwhile, funds bought 4,045 Minneapolis wheat futures to bring their net short position to 27,017 contracts.

  • SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat crop estimate by 3 mmt to 78.7 mmt, the smallest crop since 2021. Reduced Russian production could support higher wheat futures.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-23 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Holiday Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 447.5 1.25
JUL ’25 456 1.5
DEC ’25 438.75 1

Soybeans

JAN ’25 975.25 0.75
MAR ’25 980.25 1
NOV ’25 990 2.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 537.25 4.25
MAY ’25 548.25 5.5
JUL ’25 554.75 4.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 550 5.25
MAY ’25 557.75 5.25
JUL ’25 566.5 5.75

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 596.25 6
JUL ’25 612.5 6.5
SEP ’25 620.5 5.5

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6002.25 0.5

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 69.27 -0.19

Gold

FEB ’25 2630.7 -14.4

  • Corn is trading higher this morning and is now just three cents off its recent December high in the March contract. Export and ethanol demand have both been supportive despite good weather in South America.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated its corn planting progress for Argentina which now sees the corn crop at 65.8% planted compared to 55.6% planted last week.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn as of December 17. They sold 6,475 contracts which left them net long 159,415 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning with support from soybean oil which is higher thanks to a rebound in palm oil futures. Towards the end of last week, the Brazilian real also rebounded which helped soybean prices.

  • In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported that 76.6% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to 65.7% last week. Total planted area is at 18.6 million hectares.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans. They sold 17,932 contracts of soybeans leaving them net short 76,252 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Minneapolis leading the way higher. Paris milling wheat futures are higher and supporting US wheat futures.

  • SovEcon has cut its estimate for the Russian wheat crop to the lowest level since 2021 at 78.7 mmt which is a decline of 3 mmt. Cuts in Russian production could be a catalyst for higher wheat futures.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 20,622 contracts which left them net short 87,401 contracts. They bought back 3,369 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 33,067 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-20 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Continue to Rebound for the Second Consecutive Day.

ByGrain Market Insider

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn benefited from the strength of the soybean market, rising for the second consecutive session. A drier forecast in Argentina could potentially limit corn production, providing a further boost to the corn market.

  • Soybeans rose today for the second consecutive session, driven primarily by higher soybean meal prices, although soybean oil ended lower.

  • Wheat markets closed mixed today, with Chicago wheat finishing lower, while Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat saw modest gains. A lower close in Matif wheat failed to provide support for the overall wheat market.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11, with the next catch-up target at 455 (Mar ‘25).

  • If you have followed all prior sales recommendations and are comfortable with cash flow until spring, Grain Market Insider advises holding steady for now.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished the week higher as the market used strength in the soybean market to trend higher for the second consecutive session. For the week, March corn futures finished 4 ¼ cents higher as prices are trading range bound in an overall direction.

  • Forecast for a possible trending drier forecast in Argentina help pull the soybean meal market higher, supporting soybeans. A drier forecast could limit corn production, so the corn market moved in sympathy.

  • USDA reported a flash export sale of corn this morning. Columbia bought 150,000 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. 

  • With the Christmas holiday approaching next week, the market could turn choppy on thin or lighter trade volumes. The corn market will be open for a short trading session on Tuesday and closed on Wednesday next week in the Christmas Holiday trading hours.

Above: The breach of 442 support puts the market at risk of declining toward the 425 level, with potential trendline support near 432. If a bullish trigger emerges, prices could initially find support near 442 and again near 450.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day and have now taken back all but two cents of Wednesday’s sell-off. Soybean meal clearly led soybeans higher today with a gain of 3.66% in the January contract or $10.40. Soybean oil ended the day lower.

  • Soybean oil continued to sell off today and posted large losses for the week as the expiration date for the 40B tax credit looms at the end of the year. The Biden administration has not yet approved the subsequent 45Z tax credit that would be in effect next year, and this has trade concerned.

  • China is seemingly loading up on US soybeans before potential tariffs take effect in the Trump administration. Sinograin has bought 500,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery in March-April as they reportedly prefer the quality of US soybeans. There are concerns that export demand may slide next year if tariffs are implemented.

  • For the week, January soybeans lost 13-3/4 cents at $9.74-1/2 while November 25 soybeans lost 19 cents at $9.87-1/4. January soybean meal gained $8.30 on the week to $294.50 and January soybean oil lost 3.13 cents to 39.48 cents.

Above: The recent close below 975 support puts the market at risk of testing the August low of 940 on the front-month chart. If prices rebound, overhead resistance could emerge near 975, followed by additional resistance between 995 and 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading both sides of neutral, Chicago wheat closed slightly lower, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures posted small gains. The sharp decline in the US Dollar Index alleviated some pressure on the wheat market, but a lower close for Matif wheat provided no support.

  • Globally, weather in the northern hemisphere remains generally favorable for the wheat crop. While there is speculation about smaller Russian exports and potential quality concerns in European wheat, the larger harvests expected in Australia and Argentina are likely to offset these factors.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of December 19, Argentina’s wheat harvest is 76.1% complete, up from 63.9% the previous week. The production estimate remains unchanged at 18.6 mmt, compared to last year’s crop of 15.1 mmt.

  • In a statement from the German Federal Statistics Office, farmers have planted approximately 4.8 million hectares of winter grain, reflecting a 5.6% increase year-over-year. Of this total, winter wheat accounts for 2.8 million hectares, marking a 12% year-over-year rise.

  • The second vessel carrying wheat from Russia to Egypt has reportedly departed port. Egypt purchased 430,000 mt of wheat from Russia in September, but the shipments were delayed until recently. This vessel is said to be carrying 54,000 mt of wheat.

  • According to the European Commission, the 2024/25 EU grain production estimate is now 255.8 mmt, down from 256.9 mmt in the November forecast. The soft wheat crop saw a decline from 112.3 mmt to 111.9 mmt for the same period.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommends liquidating half of your remaining open July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 93 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 16% from its October high of 656.25, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 Chicago Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommends liquidating half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 20- and 50-day moving averages around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommends liquidating half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina one-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-20 Midday: Corn and Soybean remain higher at Midday; Wheat hits resistance.

ByGrain Market Insider

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 438 0.75
JUL ’25 447.25 0
DEC ’25 432 -1
Soybeans
JAN ’25 959.25 7.5
MAR ’25 961.25 8
NOV ’25 972.5 6.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 532.5 -8.75
MAY ’25 542.75 -9
JUL ’25 550.25 -8.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 543 -5.75
MAY ’25 551.25 -5.5
JUL ’25 559 -5.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 586.25 -5.75
JUL ’25 603 -4.5
SEP ’25 614.25 -3
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5961.25 21
Crude Oil
FEB ’25 69.39 -0.63
Gold
FEB ’25 2603.3 -50

  • Corn continues its positive momentum, trading higher as we hit midday, supported by strong export demand and a tighter supply outlook highlighted in the USDA’s Supply and Demand report released last week.

  • The USDA has confirmed the sale of 150,000 MT of U.S. corn for delivery to Colombia in the 24/25 year. Year-to-date U.S. corn exports are up 31% compared to the same period in the 23/24 year.

  • While U.S. exports are strong in 24/25, this growth is expected to slow as the South American corn harvest becomes available.

  • Soybeans continue to show strength at midday, driven by soybean meal, while soybean oil remains lower.

  • U.S. soybean exports have increased by 22% in the 24/25 year compared to the same period in 23/24. However, these strong exports are expected to decline as global buyers anticipate a robust harvest in South America.

  • Weather conditions in Brazil continue to bring scattered showers, with favorable conditions expected through the year-end, aiding the filling of soybean pods. In southern South America, precipitation remains below normal, but it is timely enough to support soybean growth.

  • Wheat faces resistance at midday, trading lower due to strong export competition and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

  • Earlier this week, Russia lowered its 2025 wheat crop forecast by 4%. This projected decline in Russia’s wheat production, the world’s top wheat exporter, could provide support for wheat prices, potentially driving them higher.

  • Since the start of the 24/25 marketing year on July 1st, U.S. wheat exports are up 28% compared to the same period in 23/24. However, the current strong export pace may face resistance due to the strength of the U.S. dollar, which could hinder foreign demand.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-20 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 443.5 2.75
JUL ’25 452.25 3
DEC ’25 437 2.25

Soybeans

JAN ’25 970 7
MAR ’25 973.75 7.25
NOV ’25 982.5 5.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 534 1
MAY ’25 544.5 1
JUL ’25 552 1

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 545.75 2.5
MAY ’25 553.75 2.75
JUL ’25 561.5 2.5

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 591.75 5
JUL ’25 610.5 7.5
SEP ’25 613 0

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5871.25 -62.75

Crude Oil

FEB ’25 68.72 -0.66

Gold

FEB ’25 2619.1 11

  • Corn is trading higher to start the day on momentum from yesterday’s recovery trade. Futures have now taken back all of Wednesday’s losses over the past two days.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was good with 46.2 mb of new sales commitments reported. The top buyer was Mexico with 395k tons, and total shipments combined with outstanding sales now cover 57.8% of the USDA’s total export estimate.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated its corn planting progress for Argentina which now sees the corn crop at 65.8% planted compared to 55.6% planted last week.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning, and the January contract has now made back all of Wednesday’s losses apart from 5 cents over the past two days. Soybean meal is leading the complex higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported that 76.6% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to 65.7% last week. Total planted area is at 18.6 million hectares.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales running at a good clip and were within the average range of trade estimates. China was the top buyer at 648k tons.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher with Minneapolis wheat leading the way and KC wheat following. Chicago wheat put in a new contract low yesterday with a sharp jump in the dollar.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was within trade expectations but was nothing exciting at 16.8 million bushels of sales and the Philippines the top buyer of wheat.

  • SovEcon has cut its estimate for the Russian wheat crop to the lowest level since 2021 at 78.7 mmt which is a decline of 3 mmt. Cuts in Russian production could be a catalyst for higher wheat futures.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-19 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Rebound After Wednesday’s Washout

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures clawed back some of yesterday’s losses on Thursday, backed by strong weekly export sales and a rebound in soybean futures.

  • Soybeans were higher today, recovering about half of yesterday’s losses. Higher soybean meal and soybean oil helped provide support as the entire soybean complex attempts to rally off of their recent lows.

  • Wheat futures were lower across all three classes today. Poor weekly export sales and a stronger US dollar added outside pressure.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • If you did not act on the prior sales recommendations and/or need to move bushels for cash flow, Grain Market Insider issued a catch-up recommendation on December 11, with the next catch-up target at 455 (Mar ‘25).

  • If you have followed all prior sales recommendations and are comfortable with cash flow until spring, Grain Market Insider advises holding steady for now.

2025 Crop:

  • If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.

  • As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw some price recovery on Thursday led by a supportive weekly export sales report, and buying strength in the soybean market.

  • The proposed spending legislation to combat the potential government shutdown this weekend is likely to get rejected. This possibility could put plans for the 40B tax credit back on the table, which has been a pressure in the market the past couple sessions.

  • Weekly corn exports sales last week totaled 1.174 MMT (46.2 mb) which was within expectations. Total corn sales on the books are trending 29% above last year and still ahead of the adjusted USDA pace.

  • The Brazilian real continues to lose value against the US dollar, reaching new historical lows again on Wednesday. The weaker currency gives Brazilian grain exports a significant price advantage over US offerings.

Above: The breach of 442 support puts the market at risk of declining toward the 425 level, with potential trendline support near 432. If a bullish trigger emerges, prices could initially find support near 442 and again near 450.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1100 – 1110 area versus Jan ‘24 to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in recovery action following yesterday’s meltdown. Futures recovered around half of yesterday’s losses, but there are still a number of bearish factors that could continue driving prices lower. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 227,200 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. Of the total, 152,200 metric tons are for delivery for the 2024/2025 marketing year and 75,000 metric tons are for delivery for the 2025/2026 marketing year.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was good with sales coming in right at the average trade guesses. The USDA reported an increase of 52.3 mb for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 62.0 mb were well above the 25.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and Pakistan.

  • The devaluation of the Brazilian real relative to the rising US dollar has made US soybeans less competitive. However, the larger bearish news yesterday may have come from concerns about the expiration of the 40B tax credit at the end of the year, which could impact renewable diesel and, consequently, soybean oil.

Above: The recent close below 975 support puts the market at risk of testing the August low of 940 on the front-month chart. If prices rebound, overhead resistance could emerge near 975, followed by additional resistance between 995 and 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets fell today, led by Chicago, despite gains in corn and soybeans. A stronger US Dollar Index and weaker Paris milling wheat weighed heavily, as traders brushed off concerns over poor Russian conditions.

  • The USDA reported 16.8 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25. Weekly shipments fell short of the 17.6 mb needed to hit the 850 mb target, but total commitments are at 593 mb—up 9% year-over-year.

  • FranceAgriMer raised French 24/25 wheat stocks to 2.87 mmt (+2.7% from November) but still 9.9% lower than 23/24. Soft wheat export estimates dropped slightly to 9.76 mmt from 9.89 mmt last month.

  • Strategie Grains are anticipating better growing conditions in the EU for the 25/26 wheat crop. A larger planted area and better yields are expected to lead to an 11% increase in soft wheat production. Additionally, EU soft wheat exports may rise due to a lower Russian crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.

  • Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.

  • Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 20- and 50-day moving averages around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln.