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1-09 End of Day: Grain Markets End Day Mixed Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

Due to CME settlement issues, prices are last trade prices and not official settlements.

All Prices as of 12:15 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices closed higher today as traders position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

  • Soybeans closed higher, receiving support from soybean oil, which ended considerably higher. However, soybean meal posted losses as weather conditions in Argentina improve.

  • Wheat futures ended the day lower across all three classes, with the U.S. dollar staying at elevated levels, continuing to keep pressure on the wheat market.

  • To see the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since June and continuous corn up roughly 23% from the pre-harvest low in August it is time to reward this rally.

  • The January WASDE report will be released on Friday, January 10, and it’s one of the most volatile report days of the year. Corn prices often fluctuate by ±4%, depending on whether the report delivers a bullish or bearish surprise. This provides yet another reason to take advantage of the rally, just in case the USDA delivers a bearish shock.

2025 Crop:

  • Target 455 – 475 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.

  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Major resistance on the December 2025 chart is near the 480 futures level. A close above this level could signal a potential breakout from the current range.

  • Watch for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would help protect current sales in the event of a prolonged rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market closed higher for the session as traders anticipated the release of Friday’s USDA WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

  • This morning, the Biden Administration issued short-term guidance on the 45Z tax credit plan concerning the clean energy fuel tax credit. The release helped support the market during the session and was much anticipated by the sustainable aviation fuel industry. This was only interim guidance, leaving the final plan up to the Trump Administration.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales for corn on Friday morning. The market will be watching those totals to gauge the demand pace. Concerns that corn demand may be slowing with higher prices and strong U.S. dollar limiting the U.S. in competitive balance with other global exporters. Expectations for new sales to range from 700,000 – 1.4 MMT for the week ending January 2. Last week’s sales were disappointing at 776,000 MT.

  • The expectations for the January WASDE reports are for corn production to be limited, reducing the possible carry out total to 1.680 billion bushels. This may be achieved by a possible lower yield, following the trend from the December report. Grain stock may be a sleeper number on the day with expected stocks at 12.166 billion bushels, just slightly under last year.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We remain focused on the 1060–1080 range versus March ’25 for recommending additional sales of your 2024 crop.

  • Key reasons for targeting this higher range include:

    • Funds holding significant short positions across the soy complex—soybeans, meal, and oil.

    • The entire soy complex is macro-oversold, a condition that historically favors buying over selling.

    • Seasonal opportunities may improve as the South American growing season progresses.

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the shortened trading day higher, supported by a significant gain in soybean oil, while soybean meal traded lower. March soybean meal fell below $300 as weather conditions in Argentina improved, while soybean oil rose in tandem with crude oil.

  • In Brazil, the state of Mato Grosso has begun its soybean harvest after dry weather caused planting delays at the beginning of the season. Mato Grosso increased its planted soybean acreage by 1.47% from last year this season.

  • Pre-report estimates for soybeans in Friday’s WASDE see ending stocks falling by 12 mb to 458 mb. Yield is expected to be reduced by 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa, but the bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are expected to be down 30% at 1.71 mmt for the month of January compared to last year at this time. Despite this, a potential record harvest for the country would likely point to record export sales in 2025.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite corn and soybeans inching their way to positive closes, wheat was unable to follow suit, with all three classes posting losses. A mixed to lower close for Matif wheat provided no support, and with the U.S. dollar remaining elevated, wheat continues to hover near contract lows.

  • With the monthly WASDE data set for release tomorrow, alongside the Winter Wheat Seedings report, the market may see news that could break prices out of their current sideways trend. However, traders are likely to focus more on the USDA’s stance regarding Russian production and exports.

  • On a bullish note, U.S. SRW wheat is reported to be priced equally to Argentina’s wheat on a FOB basis and is offered at a $10 per mt discount compared to French wheat. This could support export sales, which are already strong.

  • The CME is set to launch a new wheat contract for futures and options trading; if approved, the spring wheat contract will be available in the second quarter. Additionally, the CME will delist the current MIAX/MGEX spring wheat contract from its trading platform.

  • India’s wheat production estimate for 2025/26 remains unchanged at 112.7 mmt, according to LSEG. This is despite a larger planted area in Haryana, a key wheat-producing state. While India is a major wheat grower, it consumes nearly all of its production. As a result, any decline in output could force the country to import wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-09 Midday: Grains Lean Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 454.75 0.75
JUL ’25 465.75 0
DEC ’25 444.5 -0.5
Soybeans
MAR ’25 992.25 -2.25
JUL ’25 1014.5 -3.5
NOV ’25 1005 -4
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 530.25 -6
JUL ’25 551.5 -5.5
JUL ’26 608.25 -8.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 546 -4.25
JUL ’25 562.75 -5
JUL ’26 611.5 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 580.75 -4.25
JUL ’25 597 -6.25
SEP ’25 607.5 -6.25
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5944.75 -14.5
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 73.44 0.77
Gold
APR ’25 2716.1 17.8

  • Corn is slightly lower at midday with little trading activity due to the shortened trading hours.

  • Drought conditions in Mexico have caused the country to ramp up corn purchases from the U.S. The dry pattern is expected to continue which could keep Mexico active in buying U.S. grain.

  • Yesterday’s EIA report showed ethanol production at 1.102 mbpd which was down 9% from last week but up 3.8% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 24.148 mb which was the highest since May 17, 2024.

  • Soybeans remain mostly lower at midday on potential rainfall in Argentina in the 10–15 day forecast.

  • Soybean harvest has started in Brazil’s largest soybean production state. According to IMEA, an agriculture institute in the Mato Grasso state, soybean production is estimated to rise 12.78% to 44 mmt.

  • According to Anec, Brazil’s January soybean exports are estimated at 1.71 mmt, which is down almost 30% from January 2023.

  • Wheat continues to trade lower at midday on rain showers in Texas and Oklahoma and estimates of rising U.S. ending stocks in tomorrow’s WASDE report.

  • Bolivia’s government extended their tariff exemption on wheat imports through August 31, 2025. The exemption was originally scheduled to end on December 31, 2024. The government hopes this will help build wheat and wheat flour supplies after producers mentioned they would increase prices.

  • India’s wheat production forecast was unchanged from the previous forecast at 112.7 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-09 Opening Update: Grains Mixed to Start Shortened Trading Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 454.25 0.25
JUL ’25 465.25 -0.5
DEC ’25 444 -1

Soybeans

MAR ’25 987.25 -7.25
JUL ’25 1010.75 -7.25
NOV ’25 1002.25 -6.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 534.5 -1.75
JUL ’25 555.75 -1.25
JUL ’26 616.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 549 -1.25
JUL ’25 566.25 -1.5
JUL ’26 611.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 584.75 -0.25
JUL ’25 601.75 -1.5
SEP ’25 615.75 2

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5948 -11.25

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 72.87 0.2

Gold

APR ’25 2715.4 17.1

  • Corn is mixed to start the day with the front months trading slightly higher while new crop is fading. March futures have been unable to break resistance at $4.60 so far as funds may be paring down their large net long position ahead of tomorrow’s report.

  • Pre-report estimates for Friday’s WASDE see corn ending stocks falling slightly from the December estimate to 1,674 mb as yield estimates are expected to be lowered by 0.4 bpa to 182.7 bpa.

  • US ethanol stocks rose by 2.2% to 24.148m bbl while analysts were expecting 23.873m bbl. Plant production came in at 1.102, b/d compared to the average guess of 1.093.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and would be on track for a second consecutively lower day at this pace. Futures have been relatively rangebound despite improvements in South American weather. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.

  • The bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt.

  • In Brazil, the state of Mato Grosso has begun its soybean harvest after dry weather caused planting delays at the beginning of the season. Mato Grosso increased its planted soybean acreage by 1.47% from last year this season.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with both Chicago and KC wheat slightly lower while Minneapolis trades higher. The dollar is trading higher again today and has been steadily increasing which has pressured futures.

  • Pre-report estimates for wheat in Friday’s report see ending stocks increasing slightly by 7 mb to 802 mb. There should be few changes to wheat in this report.

  • While wheat futures have struggled largely due to increases in the value of the dollar, globally, the wheat crop may see production issues. Estimates for Russian production have been reduced, while Europe, the Black Sea region, and the US have dealt with weather issues.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-08 End of Day: Grains Consolidate Ahead of Friday’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices edged lower Wednesday ahead of Friday’s WASDE report, pressured by weaker ethanol production and declines in wheat.

  • Soybean futures posted minimal losses as improved precipitation forecasts in Argentina weighed on prices.

  • Wheat futures fell midweek after early strength, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.

  • See the 15-day South America precipitation anomaly map and U.S. 8–14-day temperature outlook in the charts/weather section below.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since June and continuous corn up roughly 23% from the pre-harvest low in August it is time to reward this rally.

  • If you missed previous recommendations or need cash flow in the near term, sell into market strength to get current.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.

  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.

  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec ’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fell Tuesday amid choppy trade ahead of Friday’s USDA report, pressured by weaker wheat, potential Argentine weather improvement, and a strong U.S. dollar.

  • Afternoon weather models are forecasting improved rainfall chances for Argentina by mid-January which should bring relief to the center of the farming region in the country that has been under stress from recent hot, dry weather. The recent weather pattern has had an impact, but that could be minimized by this potential rainfall.

  • Weekly ethanol production dipped to 324 million gallons/day last week, using 111 mb of corn—still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA marketing year targets.

  • The January WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on January 10 will be pivotal for stockpile and demand insights, with choppy trading expected ahead of the release. Expectations are for corn production to be limited, reducing the possible carry out total to 1.680 billion bushels.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though, patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans traded on either side of unchanged throughout the day but ultimately closed lower ahead of Friday’s WASDE report with an improved Argentinian weather forecast pressuring both soybeans and soybean meal while soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Pre-report estimates for soybeans in Friday’s WASDE see ending stocks falling by 12 mb to 458 mb. Yield is expected to be reduced by 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa, but the bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt

  • Hedge funds reduced net short positions to 42,447 contracts as of December 31, cutting 25,436 contracts amid Argentine and Brazilian weather concerns.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. While encouraging, these flash sales have slowed down in recent weeks.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All wheat classes posted modest losses, pressured by weaker corn and soybeans, a stronger U.S. dollar, and mixed Paris milling wheat futures.

  • Friday’s report includes the first look at 2025 U.S. winter wheat acreage, estimated at 33.5 million acres, slightly above 2024.

  • Pre-report estimates for December 1 wheat stocks average 1.578 bb (down from September’s 1.986 bb but above last year’s 1.421 bb). U.S. wheat ending stocks are forecast at 807 mb, with global carryout expected to rise slightly to 258.2 mmt.

  • According to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, hard red spring wheat stocks stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin are down 24% year over year at 12.73 mb, for the week ending January 5. However, stocks were up 406,000 bu when compared with the week prior.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: 15-day South America Precipitation Anomaly Map

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1-08 Midday: Markets Trade Lower Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 457.25 -0.75
JUL ’25 467.75 -0.5
DEC ’25 445.5 -0.75
Soybeans
MAR ’25 997.75 0.5
JUL ’25 1018.75 -0.25
NOV ’25 1009 -2.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 537 -5.5
JUL ’25 557.75 -5.25
JUL ’26 623.5 0
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 550.5 -5.25
JUL ’25 568 -5
JUL ’26 616.25 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 587.5 -7.25
JUL ’25 605.5 -5.5
SEP ’25 616.25 -5.25
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5949.75 -4.5
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 72.8 -0.77
Gold
APR ’25 2707 16.7

  • Corn prices continue to trade lower at midday, as the U.S. dollar rallies sharply following reports that the Trump Administration may issue a national emergency declaration to justify universal tariffs.

  • Increasing temperatures and dry weather are forecast for Argentina and Paraguay in the coming weeks. As conditions worsen, the corn crop is at risk of significant stress over the next couple of weeks.

  • Ukraine implemented a new minimum price export system for corn, which significantly slowed exports in December. Ukraine’s December corn exports totaled 2.498 mt down 3.118 from last year. This slowdown has proven beneficial for U.S. corn exports.

  • Soybeans trade lower at midday, due to the strong rally of the U.S. dollar. Both soybeans and soybean meal are trading lower, while soybean oil is trading higher.

  • Weather conditions in Argentina remain concerning, with increasing temperatures and dry conditions expected over the next couple of weeks, potentially stressing some of the late-planted soybeans.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to be delivered to an unknown destination.

  • Analysts expect the USDA to slightly reduce its 2024 soybean production estimate by approximately 8 mb. Even with this reduction, the 2024 crop would still be 7% above 2023 production and remain the second-largest U.S. harvest on record.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday, as the surge in the U.S. dollar continues to put pressure on wheat prices.

  • Persistent signs of deterioration in the winter wheat crop across the U.S. Plains could offer some support to wheat markets, as crop ratings decline in these states due to dry conditions and an ongoing cold snap.

  • Wheat exports from Russia and the EU are expected to be lower than last year, but with reduced wheat demand and increased exports from Australia and Argentina, this could compensate for the lower production and exports from Russia and the EU.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-08 Opening Update: Grains Trading Quietly Mixed to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 457 -1
JUL ’25 467.75 -0.5
DEC ’25 446 -0.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 998.5 1.25
JUL ’25 1020.25 1.25
NOV ’25 1012 0.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 539 -3.5
JUL ’25 559.75 -3.25
JUL ’26 623.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 552.5 -3.25
JUL ’25 570.25 -2.75
JUL ’26 616.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 591.5 -3.25
JUL ’25 608.5 -2.5
SEP ’25 620.75 -0.75

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5934.5 -19.75

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 73.84 0.27

Gold

APR ’25 2686.2 -4.1

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after posting a slight gain in yesterday’s session. Funds are holding a very large net long position heading into Friday’s report, so profit taking and position squaring may be seen ahead of then.

  • Pre-report estimates for Friday’s WASDE see corn ending stocks falling slightly from the December estimate to 1,674 mb as yield estimates are expected to be lowered by 0.4 bpa to 182.7 bpa.

  • The USDA may not make changes to South American production yet, but Brazilian corn production is estimated at 128 mmt while Argentina is estimated at 47 mmt. Both of these numbers are on par with the last USDA guesses.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after posting a slight loss yesterday. Improved chances for rain in Argentina have pressured markets and have hit soybean meal in particular. Soybean oil is trading higher this morning.

  • Pre-report estimates for soybeans in Friday’s WASDE see ending stocks falling by 12 mb to 458 mb. Yield is expected to be reduced by 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa.

  • The bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after two consecutively higher days. The dollar is trading higher again this morning which may be pressuring futures.

  • Pre-report estimates for wheat in Friday’s report see ending stocks increasing slightly by 7 mb to 802 mb. There should be few changes to wheat in this report.

  • Condition ratings for winter wheat declined during December in Kansas and Oklahoma according to the USDA despite a slight improvement in the dry conditions. The last wheat ratings saw 55% of the crop rated good to excellent which was the best rating for that time of year in 6 years, but conditions declined.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-07 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grains Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A daily flash sale to Columbia and strength in crude and wheat helped corn futures bounce off overnight lows to close fractionally higher today.

  • Soybeans ended the day with minimal losses closing well off their daily lows. Soybean meal futures were lower while soybean oil followed crude higher.

  • Wheat led all grains higher today as wheat ratings in Kansas deteriorated more than expected from the last USDA update in November.

  • To see the updated South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits, scroll down to the other chart/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since June and continuous corn up roughly 23% from the pre-harvest low in August it is time to reward this rally.

  • If you missed previous recommendations or need cash flow in the near term, sell into market strength to get current.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.

  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.

  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec ’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market fought off early session lows to finish slightly higher on the session. Strength in the wheat and crude oil markets helped support corn markets on Tuesday.

  • Managed money has stayed an active buyer in the corn market. The most recent Commitment of Trader report released on Monday afternoon showed the hedge funds were net buyers of 67,859 contracts, holding a net long position of 228,806 contracts. This is the hedge funds most bullish view of corn since Feb 2023.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn this morning. Columbia stepped into the export market and purchased 110,000 MT (4.3 mb) of corn for the current marketing year, underscoring ongoing supportive demand for corn.

  • The corn market remains vigilant about weather conditions in Argentina, where forecasts of dry, warmer weather in mid-January are supportive of prices. However, anticipated rainfall towards late January could influence corn and soybean prices.

  • The January WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on January 10 will be pivotal for stockpile and demand insights, with choppy trading expected ahead of the release.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 67,859 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net long 228,806 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though, patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but rebounded significantly off their early morning lows that saw March futures as much as 11 cents lower. After yesterday’s rally, increased chances for rain in Argentina have pressured the complex with soybean meal leading the way lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • The soybean market’s attention remains squarely on weather conditions in Argentina and Southern Brazil through mid-January. Recent forecasts predicting below-normal precipitation and warmer temperatures have lent support to soybean prices. However, the market’s direction into February will hinge on the reliability of long-range forecasts which are currently suggesting rainfall will resume mid-month.

  • Hedge funds have shaved their current net short positions in the soybean market over the past couple weeks. As of December 31, hedge funds were net short 42,447 contracts by reducing the short position by a net 25,436 contracts. The short covering has been triggered by the current weather forecasts for Argentina and Southern Brazil.

  • Indonesia’s admission as a full member of the BRICS bloc, with Brazil currently presiding, has implications for soybeans. As the world’s leading producer of palm oil, Indonesia’s membership could influence global vegetable oil markets, including soybeans, due to potential shifts in trade and policy dynamics.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 25,436 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net short 42,447 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex closed higher, with early strength coming from winter wheat crop condition updates, released by select states yesterday afternoon. The good to excellent rating for Kansas came in at 47% which is a sharp decline from the last rating of 55% in November. Conditions also declined in South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.

  • European Union 24/25 wheat exports have reached 11.16 mmt as of January 5. This is down 34% from a year ago, which along with a lower Russian crop, could be supportive to the U.S. wheat export market.

  • According to data from the CFTC, funds have reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat by 8,247 contracts as of December 31, bringing their total net short to 86,762 contracts. In Kansas City, they reduced their net short position by 1,075 to 33,861 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8247 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net short 86,762 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,075 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net short 33,861 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, December 31. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 161 contracts between December 24 – 31, bringing their total position to a net short 27,143 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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1-07 Midday: Corn and Soybeans Continue Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 454.75 -3
JUL ’25 465.5 -2.5
DEC ’25 444.5 -1
Soybeans
MAR ’25 992.5 -5.25
JUL ’25 1014.75 -5.75
NOV ’25 1008.75 -4.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 542.75 2.25
JUL ’25 563.25 2.25
JUL ’26 620.5 0.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 558.5 5.25
JUL ’25 574.25 4.25
JUL ’26 610.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 595.75 3.5
JUL ’25 611 3.25
SEP ’25 621.25 3.5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5994 -26.5
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 73.67 0.75
Gold
APR ’25 2691.7 19.7

  • Corn continues to trade lower at midday, with futures showing signs of losing momentum due to declining exports and the anticipation of a large South American crop.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 110,000 tons of US corn for delivery to Columbia in 24/25.

  • Funds net long position grew significantly last week, reaching a 22-month high, as Argentina’s drying trend attracted new buyers.

  • Currently, Argentina’s corn production losses are minimal, but if dry conditions persist into the second half of January, concerns are expected to grow.

  • Soybeans remain lower at midday, despite growing concerns over the heat and dry weather in Argentina. Both soybeans and soybean meal are trading down, while soybean oil is experiencing slight gains.

  • The upside potential for soybeans has been constrained due to expectations of a record crop in Brazil, the world’s leading soybean producer. Traders will remain focused on the USDA Supply and Demand report, looking for any upward revision to Brazil’s soybean estimate, which currently stands at 169 mmt.

  • The anticipation of the USDA Supply and Demand report, set for release this Friday, is likely to keep prices volatile in the meantime. Meanwhile, concerns over trade wars will likely continue to cap rallies, as uncertainty surrounding potential changes in tariff policies under the incoming Trump administration persists.

  • Wheat futures are trading higher at midday, supported by the strength of the dollar and tough export competition, which provide underlying strength to the wheat markets. Additionally, expectations of shrinking supply from Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, are adding strength.

  • Approximately 25% of the national winter wheat crop is stressed due to drought, raising concerns about the spring crop. For the US, wheat ratings in Kansas and Oklahoma have declined due to dry conditions in parts of the states, along with other areas in the Midwest.

  • This week’s heavy snowfall in central and eastern Kansas provided welcome moisture to the winter wheat crop and is expected to offer some cover as the cold snap persists over the next two weeks.

  • Domestic wheat prices in India continue to rise to record highs, as the government’s sale of wheat stocks and restrictions on how much wheat millers can hold have failed to bring prices down.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-07 Opening Update: Grains Lower This Morning Following Yesterday’s Rally

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 455.75 -2
JUL ’25 466.25 -1.75
DEC ’25 444.75 -0.75

Soybeans

MAR ’25 990.75 -7
JUL ’25 1012.5 -8
NOV ’25 1006.25 -6.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 540 -0.5
JUL ’25 560.5 -0.5
JUL ’26 619.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 556 2.75
JUL ’25 572.75 2.75
JUL ’26 610.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 594.75 2.5
JUL ’25 608.25 0.5
SEP ’25 617.75 0

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6026.5 6

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 73.46 0.54

Gold

APR ’25 2684.8 12.8

  •  Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s move higher took out the previous day’s high. The rally was mostly driven by a slightly drier Argentinian forecast, but there are now better chances for rain.

  • Natural gas, an important input in synthetic nitrogen production, may become more expensive over the next few weeks as an artic air blast hits the US this week followed by a cold plunge for Europe in late January. 

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a whopping 67,859 contracts of corn as of December 31 which has left them with a net long position of 228,806 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and so far have taken back all of yesterday’s gains that were driven by Argentinian weather concerns. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher.

  • Indonesia has just been admitted as a full member of the BRICS bloc of developing countries with Brazil presiding. This is significant to soybeans because Indonesia is the top producer of palm oil in the world.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of December 31. The bought back 25,436 contracts which decreased their net short position to 42,447 contracts.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago trading slightly lower, KC higher, and Minneapolis is higher as well. Yesterday, futures rallied off of contract lows in tandem with the rest of the grain market.

  • Condition ratings for winter wheat declined during December in Kansas and Oklahoma according to the USDA despite a slight improvement in the dry conditions. The last wheat ratings saw 55% of the crop rated good to excellent which was the best rating for that time of year in 6 years, but conditions declined.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as net buyers of wheat as of December 31. They bought back 8,247 contracts of Chicago wheat and 1,075 contracts of KC wheat. This left them net short 86,762 contracts of Chicago and short 33,861 contracts of KC.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-06 End of Day: Lower US Dollar and Argentine Forecast Rallies Grains Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures rebounded Monday, supported by a drier Argentine forecast and stronger wheat prices, recovering some of Friday’s losses.

  • Soybeans closed higher but off morning highs. Soybean oil posted small gains, while soybean meal ended lower despite the Argentine weather outlook.

  • Wheat futures surged, erasing Friday’s losses in KC and Spring wheat. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, its weakest daily performance since late November, supported the rally.

  • To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast and the Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, NOAA and Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.

  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.

  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec ’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures rebounded Monday, aided by a weaker U.S. dollar and strong wheat prices. March corn retested $4.60 but failed to hold, ending moderately higher.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index fell, driven by a strong Canadian dollar following President Trudeau’s resignation. The weaker dollar supported wheat and spilled over to corn.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were very routine in Monday’s report at 847,000 MT (33.6 mb), down slightly from the previous week’s totals. Total inspections for the 2024-25 marketing year are now at 639 mb, up 24% from the previous year.

  • Dry and hot weather forecasts for mid-January in Argentina remain a key market focus. Long-range forecasts into late January will likely drive corn and soybean price action.

  • The January WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on January 10 will be pivotal for stockpile and demand insights, with choppy trading expected ahead of the release.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.

  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.

  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though, patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.

  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans opened the week with higher prices as soil moisture levels continue to decline across many regions of Argentina. Growing concerns about rising temperatures and inadequate rainfall are raising the risk of significant challenges for the crop.

  • Part of the strength in the soy complex is driven by anticipation ahead of Inauguration Day, as President-elect Trump considers widespread tariffs on several countries, creating uncertainty in the markets. This news resulted in a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar overnight, while boosting commodity prices.

  • Soybean meal ended the day with a decline as cold weather and heavy snowstorms swept through the Midwest over the weekend. These weather conditions disrupted soybean processing operations, leading to delays in both production and transportation.

  • Farmers in Brazil have reportedly sold 35% of their expected soybean production, up from 20% at this time last year and surpassing the 10-year average of 30%. This increase is partly attributed to the Brazilian currency’s decline to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures recouped Friday’s losses, with March KC and Minneapolis contracts leading the rally, while Chicago March wheat closed below Friday’s high. A sharp drop in the U.S. Dollar Index supported U.S. wheat, despite lower Matif wheat prices.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 15.2 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 467 mb, which is up 25% from the year prior. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace, and exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.

  • Argentina’s wheat crop is 94.7% harvested, up 6.2% week-over-week, with production estimates steady at 18.6 mmt, compared to 15.1 mmt last year.

  • Indonesia may impose feed wheat import quotas to protect domestic corn farmers. Despite this, 2023/24 wheat imports are projected at 12.98 mmt, up from 9.45 mmt last year, according to USDA FAS.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina two-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.