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01-15 Opening Update: Grains Mixed in Overnight Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 476.25 1.75
JUL ’25 489.75 0.75
DEC ’25 457 0.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1048.5 1
JUL ’25 1073 0.5
NOV ’25 1048.75 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 544.5 -1.75
JUL ’25 567 -1.5
JUL ’26 623.75 -3.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 556 -4.75
JUL ’25 575.25 -4.25
JUL ’26 623 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 588 -1.5
JUL ’25 606 -1.75
SEP ’25 617.75 -1.25

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5904.25 22

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 76.78 0.41

Gold

APR ’25 2733.5 23.4

  • Corn is trading steady to two cents higher this morning in a quiet overnight session. March corn ranged from 474 to 477 overnight, while December corn traded between 455 and 457.50.

  • In southern Brazil, the harvest of the first-crop corn and the planting of the second-crop safrinha corn have begun. The state of Paraná reported that 1% of the first-crop corn has been harvested, and 2% of the safrinha corn has been planted. Despite some drier areas, first-crop yields are generally expected to be good.

  • In Argentina, corn planting is approximately 92% complete. Early crop ratings are mixed, with 58% of the crop rated as fair to very poor, while 42% is rated good to excellent.

  • Soybeans are mixed, trading between a penny higher to a penny lower. The March contract traded overnight between 1044 and 1051.25, while the November contract ranged from 1045.25 to 1052.50. Soybean meal and oil are mixed: meal is up by one to two dollars, while soybean oil is down about half a percent.

  • Expectations for Brazil’s soybean crop have been lowered slightly, with one analyst reducing their estimate by 1 million tons to 170 million. Rainfall over the past week favored northern and eastern Brazil, while southern Brazil experienced mostly dry conditions. The forecast shows favorable rain prospects for northern Brazil, with increased chances of rainfall in southern Brazil later this week and into next week.

  • In Argentina, soybean planting is approximately 97% complete. Early crop ratings are mixed, with 51% rated as fair to very poor, while 49% are rated good to excellent.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning, with overnight trading ranges of four to eight cents.

  • The wheat market continues to underperform compared to corn and soybeans, with the U.S. dollar remaining a significant headwind for wheat prices. Despite a 70-basis-point decline yesterday, the dollar index is still up 9% from its September low of 99.86.

  • Japan has issued a tender for 132,888 metric tons of wheat, with 48,308 metric tons allocated to the U.S.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-14 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures tested upside resistance during Tuesday’s session but ultimately closed lower as buying momentum eased.

  • After a more than 50-cent higher move in just two sessions, soybean futures corrected lower on Tuesday.

  • Wheat futures ended mixed, with Chicago wheat managing slight gains, while Kansas City and spring wheat futures dipped into negative territory.

  • See the updated GRACE-based shallow ground water drought indicator for the U.S. as well as the week two precipitation anomaly forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.  

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • The December ’25 corn contract has entered the target range of 455–475. 

  • First resistance is just under 3 cents away at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract. 

  • If the December ’25 contract breaks above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential sales recommendation. 

  • Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025. 

  • Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would protect current sales while allowing you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures lost momentum on Tuesday, retreating from their highest levels since June 2024. Producer selling and weakness in other markets likely limited the upside. With the turn lower, the corn market posted a bearish hook reversal on the daily charts, which could lead to additional selling pressure of this weak technical signal.

  • Managed hedge funds added to their length in the corn market on last week’s Commitment of trader’s report.  Funds were a net long approximately 253,000 contracts as of Jan 7. Estimates have the funds holding a net long of 280,000-300,000 contracts going into today’s trade. If realized, this would be the largest net long position since 2022 for this time frame.

  • Crude oil prices faced selling pressure on Tuesday after reaching $79 per barrel early in the session — the highest price since July. This weakness likely weighed on the corn and soybean markets.

  • In the cash market, basis levels have widened as producer selling has ramped up in response to recent price increases. While futures have rallied strongly since the USDA report, the cash market in some areas has not fully mirrored these gains.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 460, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 475 with larger resistance just below 500.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 24,540 contracts between Dec. 31–  Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net long 253,346 contracts. 

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • The March ’25 contract reached the 1060–1080 target range today, with an intraday high of 1064.

  • At today’s close of 1047.50, the contract stands one dollar above its December low of 947.00.

  • With Funds covering a significant number of short positions and nearing a net-neutral stance, now is an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.  

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ultimately ended the day with a lower close but briefly traded as much as 10 cents higher this morning before fading. The fundamentals are bullish overall with a dry Argentine forecast and a lower national US soybean yield, but fund profit taking and farmer selling may have added pressure today.

  • Soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil declined slightly. However, soybean oil has rallied sharply this year due to the potential removal of foreign-used cooking oil from renewable diesel production, which would boost demand. The Biden administration’s progress on the 45Z tax credit could further support soybean oil, though uncertainties remain regarding qualification criteria.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 13,835 contracts of soybeans as of January 7 which reduced their net short position to 28,612 contracts. Funds are estimated to have bought back over 27,000 contracts in just the last two days, which would likely establish them with a new net long position.

  • The USDA initially announced a 198,000 MT soybean sale to China, which was later corrected to a corn sale. Near-term soybean demand concerns persist, as Brazilian export prices range $0.90 to $1.20 per bushel below U.S. soybeans.

  • CONAB raised its soybean production forecast for the current crop year to 166.33 MMT, up slightly from last month.  Most analyst have the Brazil soybean crop above 170 MMT for their estimates.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,835 contracts between Dec. 31 – Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net short 28,612 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed, with Chicago posting modest gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw neutral to slight losses. Wheat’s resilience, despite weaker corn and soybean markets, can be attributed to a sharply lower US Dollar Index.

  • According to CFTC data, managed funds were net sellers of around 1,900 Chicago and 2,200 Minneapolis wheat contracts. However, they were net buyers of around 2,000 Kansas City contracts. The combined net short position for all three classes sits at nearly 150,000 contracts, compared to the record short of over 198,000 contracts in December 2023.

  • The Russian Grain Union reported total grain exports of 34.3 mmt from July to December 2024, a 5.4% decline from the same period a year earlier. However, wheat exports increased slightly by 0.7% to 30 mmt.

  • According to Secex, Brazil imported 520.9 mmt of wheat in December, bringing 2024 total imports to 6.65 mmt, significantly surpassing 2023 imports of 4.18 mmt. December imports were the highest for any month since 2019, and 2024 marked the largest annual total since 2018.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,875 contracts between Dec 31 – Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net short 88,637 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,003 contracts between Dec. 31 – Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net short 31,858 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Jan 7. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,242 contracts between Dec. 31 – Jan 7, bringing their total position to a net short 29,385 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil week two-forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-14 Midday: Corn and Soybeans Continue Weakness at Midday; Wheat Reverses Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 475.5 -1
JUL ’25 489 -1
DEC ’25 456.25 -1
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1052 -1
JUL ’25 1075.5 -2.5
NOV ’25 1049.5 -1.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 546.75 1.75
JUL ’25 568.25 0.75
JUL ’26 630.25 1.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 562.5 1.5
JUL ’25 580.75 1.25
JUL ’26 623 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 592.5 -1
JUL ’25 610 0.25
SEP ’25 623.25 2.5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5868 -6.5
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 76.73 -0.57
Gold
APR ’25 2714.4 8.3

  • Corn futures looked to bounce back higher after opening lower but strong price increases over the past two days have caused a slight pullback today.

  • AgResource slightly lowered their estimate for Brazil’s 24/25 corn crop from 123.56 mmt to 122.39 mmt.

  • Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group announced an international tender for 65,000 mt of animal feed corn. The corn can be sourced from the US, Argentina, Brazil, or South Africa.

  • Soybeans are weaker at midday after two strong trading days in a row. Slow harvest pace in Brazil could keep support under the market on breaks.

  • AgRural estimates that soybean harvest in Brazil is 0.3% done as of January 9th. This compares to 2.3% completed the same week last year.

  • The USDA confirmed the sale of 198,000 mt of US soybeans to China for delivery in 24/25.

  • All three wheat classes reversed higher at midday as the dollar backs off a 26-month high.

  • IKAR estimates Russian wheat exports for January were down 3.8% from December at 2.2-2.5 mmt. This is the lowest monthly exports for the month of January since 2019.

  • Subzero temperatures are expected for much of the plains states this weekend and into next week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-14 Opening Update: Grains Lower After Two Days of Sharply Higher Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 474.25 -2.25
JUL ’25 487.75 -2.25
DEC ’25 455.75 -1.5

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1050 -3
JUL ’25 1073 -5
NOV ’25 1046 -5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 543.25 -1.75
JUL ’25 566.25 -1.25
JUL ’26 630 1.25

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 558.75 -2.25
JUL ’25 577.75 -1.75
JUL ’26 623 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 590.5 -3
JUL ’25 608 -1.75
SEP ’25 619 -1.75

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5888.75 14.25

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 77.13 -0.17

Gold

APR ’25 2710.4 4.3

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as trade appears to cool off after March futures gained 20 cents in just two days following the WASDE report. Futures have become overbought, and farmer selling has likely accelerated.

  • Yesterday’s corn inspections number was strong at 56.7 mb, but the USDA reduced export demand by 25 mb on Friday citing lower supplies. Exports could be further reduced this year due to lower demand depending on President Trump’s tariffs.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 24,540 contracts of corn as of January 7 which left them net long 253,346 contracts. They are likely closer to 300,000 net long contracts after the last two trading days.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning as March futures cool off from a 54 cent rally over the past two days which was driven by a 1 bpa reduction in yield in the US and drier forecasted conditions in Argentina.

  • Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well, but soybean oil in particular has rallied sharply since the beginning of the year as the potential for removing foreign used cooking oil from renewable diesel production lends support.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 13,835 contracts of soybeans as of January 7 which reduced their net short position to 28,612 contracts. Funds are estimated to have bought back over 27,000 contracts in just the last two days which would likely establish them with a new net long position.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. The dollar index rose above 100 yesterday for the first time since November 2022 which has likely been a big factor in wheats new contract lows.

  • Yesterday’s inspections report saw 10.6 mb of wheat inspected for export as of January 9. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 478 mb which is up 25% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating exports at 20% higher than the previous year.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 1,875 contracts which left them net short 88,637 contracts. They bought back 2,003 contracts of KC wheat which reduced their net short position to 31,858 contracts. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-13 End of Day: Grains Start the Week Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures continued their march higher on Monday, building on momentum from Friday’s bullish USDA report.

  • Soybean and soybean meal futures opened the week with sharp gains as weekend forecasts for Argentina turned warmer and drier, raising concerns about crop stress. Soybean oil also rallied, adding strength to the complex.

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all classes on Monday despite the U.S. Dollar hitting another near-term high. Spillover strength from surging corn and soybean markets provided key support for the wheat rally.

  • See the 7-day GEFS accumulated precipitation anomaly as well as the GRACE-based shallow ground water drought indicator for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • The December ’25 corn contract has entered the target range of 455–475.

  • First resistance is just under 3 cents away at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • If the December ’25 contract breaks above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential sales recommendation.

  • Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would protect current sales while allowing you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended gains following Friday’s bullish USDA report. Support from strong buying in both soybean and wheat markets pushed corn prices to their highest close since June.

  • Money flow continues to move into the corn market as hedge funds have grown their long position, supported by the demand tone and friendly USDA data. Expectations are that hedge funds are 280,000-300,000 net long contracts. The latest Commitment of Traders report will be released on Monday afternoon.

  • Corn export inspections reached 1.441 MMT (56.7 mb) last week, surpassing analyst expectations. Year-to-date shipments are 26% ahead of last year and continue to outpace the USDA’s forecasted pace.

  • Strong producer selling in both U.S. and international markets could cap the corn rally by boosting export competition. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index climbed to a new high on Monday, adding headwinds for exports.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We remain focused on the 1060–1080 range versus March ’25 for recommending additional sales of your 2024 crop.

  • Key reasons for targeting this higher range include:

    • Funds holding significant short positions across the soy complex—soybeans, meal, and oil.

    • The entire soy complex is macro-oversold, a condition that historically favors buying over selling.

    • Seasonal opportunities may improve as the South American growing season progresses.

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the second consecutive trading session with the March contract now comfortably above the 100-day moving average with the 200-day as its potential next target. Trade is riding the sugar high from Friday’s WASDE report and potentially dry Argentinian weather.

  • Both soybean meal and oil were higher today, but soybean meal led the entire complex higher as concerns arise over the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil with Argentina facing dangerously low soil moisture levels. Higher crude oil prices today were likely supportive to soybean oil.

  • Friday’s WASDE report saw the national soybean yield fall by 1 bpa which was significantly more than the average trade estimate. Ending stocks have fallen to just 380 mb from 470 mb in December’s report. World ending stocks were lowered as well.

  • One week from today, President Trump will be inaugurated, and he has stated that 100 executive orders would begin on his first day. While most will likely focus on border security, Tariffs on Chinese goods will likely also be a focus, and this could have a negative impact on trade relations.

Above: The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished higher in all three classes, led by double digit gains in Chicago. This rally occurred despite a new near-term high for the US Dollar today, and relatively neutral wheat data on Friday’s report. Spillover support from higher corn, and sharply higher soybeans, offered strength to wheat.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 10.6 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 478 mb, which is up 25% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from the year prior.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values remained unchanged last week at $237 per MT on a FOB basis. SovEcon reported Russian grain exports totaling 410,000 MT for the week, with wheat accounting for 400,000 MT. Russia also reduced its wheat export tax by 2.3% to 4,245 Rubles per MT through January 21.

  • Ukraine’s total 2025 grain production may reach between 55-65 mmt, according to UkrAgroConsult. For reference, last year’s grain harvest was 54.3 mmt. In addition, the amount of grain for export is estimated to be between 40-50 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.  

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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1-13 Midday: Grains Green at Midday Monday

ByLisa Heder

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 475 4.5
JUL ’25 487 5
DEC ’25 454.5 4.25
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1043.25 18
JUL ’25 1068 18.25
NOV ’25 1041.75 10.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 539.25 8.5
JUL ’25 561.25 6.75
JUL ’26 625 6.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 556.25 4.5
JUL ’25 574 4.75
JUL ’26 615.5 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 588 3.75
JUL ’25 605.25 3.75
SEP ’25 616.75 4.5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5831 -35.25
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 77.39 1.64
Gold
APR ’25 2709.4 -33.2

  • Corn futures are higher across the board at midday, continuing their rally higher after Friday’s supportive data from the USDA.

  • Strong demand and lower production have driven U.S. corn carryout estimates down by 517 million bushels since September, now pegged at 1.54 billion bushels in the January report.

  • The Biden Administration is expected to release guidance this week on a climate model for clean fuel tax credits. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could significantly limit ethanol producers’ access to subsidies for sustainable aviation fuel production.

  • Soybeans are higher at midday on follow-through buying from Friday’s friendly USDA report.

  • Soil moisture levels in Argentina are continuing to diminish across many regions due to well-above-normal temperatures and minimal rainfall. Relief is not expected until this coming weekend, when chances for precipitation may improve.

  • The USDA announced this morning the sale of 198,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the current 2024/25 marketing year.

  • Wheat futures are higher at midday following the lead of the corn and soybean markets higher.

  • After a strong finish to last week the US dollar index is higher again on Monday and back above its recent highs.

  • Due to the National Day of Mourning last week for Jimmy Carter, CFTC Commitment of Traders data will be released this afternoon.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-13 Opening Update: Grains Higher on Heels of Friendly WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 474.75 4.25
JUL ’25 486.5 4.5
DEC ’25 452.5 2.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1035.5 10.25
JUL ’25 1060.5 10.75
NOV ’25 1038 7

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 538.25 7.5
JUL ’25 560.75 6.25
JUL ’26 623.5 5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 558.25 6.5
JUL ’25 575.75 6.5
JUL ’26 615.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 589.75 5.5
JUL ’25 606.75 5.25
SEP ’25 617.75 5.5

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5819.5 -46.75

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 76.87 1.12

Gold

APR ’25 2718.1 -24.5

  • Corn is trading higher this morning following Friday’s very bullish USDA report, but drier weather in Argentina and diminishing soil moisture is lending support today as well. March futures are now at their highest level since June 2024.

  • The bullish surprise in last week’s WASDE report was the big reduction in the national yield. Initially, analysts were expecting yield to fall by 0.4 bpa, but the USDA lowered yields by nearly 4 bpa which caused ending stocks to fall to 1.54 bb.

  • The CFTC report will not be released until later today, but over the past 5 trading days, funds have bought an estimated 53,500 contracts of corn which would leave them with a near record net long position.

  • Soybeans are trading sharply higher this morning along with corn and wheat as Friday’s USDA report was also bullish for soybeans, and the dryness in Argentina is affecting prices as well. Soybean meal is higher on the drier forecast while soybean oil is higher as well.

  • Friday’s WASDE report saw the national soybean yield fall by 1 bpa which was significantly more than the average trade estimate. Ending stocks have fallen to just 380 mb from 470 mb in December’s report.

  • Over the past 5 trading days, funds have bought back an estimated 27,000 contracts of soybeans which would put their net position close to being slightly net long.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way. Although Friday’s report was not particularly bullish for wheat, there seems to be general optimism in the grain complex, and wheat is rebounding off Friday’s contract low.

  • Last week’s WASDE report saw US wheat ending stocks very slightly increased while US grain stocks were higher as a result of increased seedings. World wheat ending stocks were increased as well.

  • Over the past 5 trading days, funds bought back an estimated 7,500 contracts of wheat. This would still leave them with a net short position as fundamentals in wheat have been less friendly than in other grains.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-10 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Sharply Higher Following USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures soared on Friday after the USDA made a larger-than-expected cut to 2024 U.S. corn yield estimates. March futures finished the week with a gain of 19-3/4 cents.

  • Soybean futures ended the week on a positive note as the USDA lowered the 2024 soybean yield by 2.6%, reducing ending stocks to 380 million bushels.

  • March soybean oil futures surged over 6.5% on Friday, while soybean meal futures were slightly lower.

  • Wheat futures finished mixed, pressured by USDA data showing U.S. winter wheat plantings exceeding both last year’s figures and pre-report estimates.

  • To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the South American 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target 455 – 475 versus Dec ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.

  • The strong demand tone for U.S. corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Major resistance on the December 2025 chart is near the 480 futures level. A close above this level could signal a potential breakout from the current range.

  • Watch for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would help protect current sales in the event of a prolonged rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended the week with strong gains, driven by a bullish USDA WASDE report. March corn rose 19 ¾ cents for the week. With the strong close, the market will be watching the price action on Monday for follow-through of the buying strength today.

  • USDA weekly export sales for the week ending January 2 totaled 455,000 MT—a marketing-year low and well below expectations. The decline was largely due to six countries reducing or canceling prior sales. Despite this, U.S. corn export sales remain 30% ahead of last year. Market watchers will monitor whether this trend persists.

  • The USDA cut its 2024-25 corn yield forecast by 3.8 bu/acre to 179.3 bu/acre, reducing production by 276 mb. While demand estimates were trimmed by 75 mb, carryout fell to 1.540 billion bushels, below market expectations. Quarterly grain stocks for corn were reported at 12.074 billion bushels—100 mb below expectations and 90 mb less than last year, with 7.66 billion bushels stored on farms as of November 30.

  • Despite dry conditions, Argentina’s crop ratings remain above average, though slightly below last year. Rain chances are expected to improve in the second half of January, offering potential relief to stressed crops.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We remain focused on the 1060–1080 range versus March ’25 for recommending additional sales of your 2024 crop.

  • Key reasons for targeting this higher range include:

    • Funds holding significant short positions across the soy complex—soybeans, meal, and oil.

    • The entire soy complex is macro-oversold, a condition that historically favors buying over selling.

    • Seasonal opportunities may improve as the South American growing season progresses.

2025 Crop:

  • The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following a surprisingly bullish USDA report. The big leader was soybean oil which ended 6.59% higher in the March contract which was supported by anticipation of the clean fuel tax credit by the Biden administration. Soybean meal ended the day slightly lower.

  • Today’s WASDE report held a bullish surprise in the way of a yield cut which was much larger than expected. Yields were cut to 50.7 bpa from 51.7 bpa last month, and this was lower than the average trade guess of 51.6 bpa. Ending stocks fell to 380 mb from 470 mb. Both Argentinian and Brazilian soybean production were surprisingly unchanged from last month.

  • Better Argentinian weather has been pressuring soybean meal, but soybean oil has taken an opposite trend over the past week with large gains both yesterday and today. The Biden administration is expected to release its climate model for clean tax fuel credits next week which trade has been waiting for and has been very friendly to soybean oil.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was very poor with the USDA reporting an increase of 10.6 million bushels of soybean export sales in 24/25 and 14,700 bushels for 25/26. This was well below the lowest trade estimate. Primary destinations were to the Netherlands, China, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 58.1 mb were above the 22.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion, as today’s report data was neutral to bearish for the wheat complex. Another move higher for the U.S. Dollar Index after a stronger than expected jobs report was also negative for wheat prices, despite a higher close for Paris futures.

  • The USDA pegged U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks at 798 mb, slightly above December’s 795 mb estimate. Global ending stocks also rose modestly, from 257.9 mmt to 258.8 mmt. Quarterly stocks as of December 1 were reported at 1.570 bb, up from 1.421 bb last year. Winter wheat planted acreage was estimated at 34.1 million acres, exceeding the average trade guess of 31.3 million and up about 2% from last year.

  • Russian wheat exports were revised lower by 1 mmt to 46.0 mmt, while Ukrainian exports fell by 0.5 mmt to 16.0 mmt. Australian and Argentine production estimates remained steady at 32.0 mmt and 17.5 mmt, respectively.

  • In an update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of January 9, Argentina’s 24/25 wheat crop was 98.2% harvested, with the production estimate remaining unchanged at 18.6 mmt; this is above the USDA’s guess today. For reference, last year’s crop totaled 15.1 mmt.

  • According to a Russian agricultural regulator, Russia exported 73.1 mmt of grains in 2024, up 4 mmt year over year. Wheat accounted for 57.5 mmt of this total. Combined exports of grains and grain products reached 86.7 mmt, an increase from 83.9 mmt in 2023.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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1-10 Midday: Grains Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 457 1
JUL ’25 468.75 0.75
DEC ’25 446.25 -0.75
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1002.25 3.25
JUL ’25 1025.5 2.25
NOV ’25 1015 1.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 528.75 -5.25
JUL ’25 549.25 -5.75
JUL ’26 614 0
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 545.75 -4.5
JUL ’25 562.75 -4.25
JUL ’26 610.5 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 580.25 -3.25
JUL ’25 598 -2.5
SEP ’25 608.5 -2.5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5858.75 -100.5
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 75.08 1.84
Gold
APR ’25 2745.6 28.5

  • Corn is trading mixed at midday ahead of today’s USDA WASDE report, but still showing some strength due to a tighter supply outlook for 2025.

  • China has significantly reduced its estimated corn imports for the 24/25 season, lowering the forecast from 13 mt last month to 9 mt. While this would typically be bearish for the corn market, today’s USDA report is expected to show a decline in ending stocks, helping to support prices.

  • Rains are urgently needed to replenish Argentina’s stressed corn crop after several weeks of hot, dry weather, but showers are expected within the next week. As the world’s third-largest corn exporter, Argentina has received little to no rain since December in its primary growing region, making these upcoming rain showers crucial for sustaining crop development.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday as traders await the USDA WASDE report, scheduled for release at 11 AM Central. While soybeans and soybean oil are making gains, soybean meal is trading lower.

  • The soybean market is receiving support today, driven by a sharp rally in soybean oil overnight. This surge follows reports that the Biden Administration plans to release short-term guidance on clean fuel tax credits today while leaving the final decision to the incoming Trump Administration.

  • The USDA plays a significant role in today’s trade through the release of the WASDE report, but traders remain focused on weather conditions in Argentina and Southern Brazil. Dry and hot weather continues to stress crops in these regions; however, showers are expected next week, potentially providing much-needed relief.

  • Wheat prices are trading lower at midday, as the strength of the U.S. dollar and weakening exports continue to pressure the market.

  • The wheat market remains quiet ahead of today’s USDA report, largely due to expectations of burdensome U.S. ending stocks and a generally weak technical outlook.

  • The USDA is expected to forecast total winter wheat seedings at 33.37 million acres, slightly down from 33.39 million acres last year.

  • The winter wheat crop in the southern Plains received beneficial moisture yesterday and overnight, but conditions are expected to dry out across most of the Plains over the next week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-10 Opening Update: Grains Higher Ahead of WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 457.5 1.5
JUL ’25 469.5 1.5
DEC ’25 446.75 -0.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1005.5 6.5
JUL ’25 1028.5 5.25
NOV ’25 1018 4.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 534.25 0.25
JUL ’25 555.5 0.5
JUL ’26 614 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 551.25 1
JUL ’25 568.25 1.25
JUL ’26 610.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 584.25 0.75
JUL ’25 601 0.5
SEP ’25 611.25 0.25

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5941.75 -17.5

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 75.49 2.25

Gold

APR ’25 2732.1 15

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning ahead of the USDA report at 11 am central. While yields are expected to be slightly lowered, there could be some surprises from South American production.

  • Pre-report estimates for Today’s WASDE report see corn ending stocks falling slightly from the December estimate to 1,674 mb as yield estimates are expected to be lowered by 0.4 bpa to 182.7 bpa.

  • The average guess for Argentinian corn production is slightly below December’s estimate while Brazil’s is expected to be unchanged. World ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning following gains in yesterday’s trade. Funds hold a decent sized net short position and could be taking profits ahead of today’s report. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.

  • Estimates for US soybean ending stocks see a slight decline to 458 mb due to a slightly lower yield estimate at 51.6 bpa. World ending stocks are expected to increase.

  • The bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after two consecutively lower closes that were likely driven down by increases in the US dollar recently.

  • Pre-report estimates for wheat in Friday’s report see ending stocks increasing slightly by 7 mb to 802 mb. There should be few changes to wheat in this report.

  • Estimates for today’s report see world wheat ending stocks virtually unchanged at 257.9, but ongoing weather issues in much of the world could cause that number to drop. Estimates for Russian production seem to keep falling.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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