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8-25 Midday: Corn and Wheat Higher to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are firmer Monday morning, extending last week’s strength. December futures are 2 cents higher trading at $4.14.

  • Last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour highlighted strong yield potential but still came in below USDA estimates, pegging the U.S. corn crop at 182.7 bpa versus USDA’s 188.8 bpa. The tour also noted widespread disease pressure, which could further limit yield potential.

  • Cooler-than-normal temperatures across much of the Corn Belt should help ease emerging dryness stress. Forecasts also point to improved chances for meaningful rainfall in the western Corn Belt as early September begins.

  • Soybean futures are slightly lower to start the week as prices consolidate near resistance. November futures are 6 cents lower trading at $10.52.

  • Pro Farmer projected the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, just under USDA’s 53.6 bpa estimate. Pod counts were above last year in six of seven surveyed states, with Indiana the lone exception.

  • On the bearish side, prospects for a grain-specific trade deal with China remain absent, while Chinese importers continue to favor Brazilian supplies. Purchases from South America are reported at 770 mb so far, 360 mb above last year’s pace, with buying extending into November.

  • Wheat futures are higher across the board to start the week. December Chicago futures are 6 cents higher trading at $5.33-1/2. December Spring wheat futures are 3 cents higher, trading at $5.93.

  • Pressuring wheat are fresh showers across the Southern Plains — particularly Kansas and Oklahoma — ahead of planting, along with weaker EU and Black Sea values as Russia and the EU compete for new export business.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that recent rains improved soil moisture across Argentina’s wheat region, aiding crop development and nutrient uptake. Planted area for 2025/26 is estimated at 6.7 million hectares, up from 6.3 million last season.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-25 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning with the September contract up 3 cents at $3.91-1/4 and December up 2-1/2 cents at $4.14. December is trading above the 21-day moving average for the first time since July 3 as funds begin exiting short positions.

  • The ProFarmer Crop Tour projected large yields and a record US corn harvest for 2025, but mentioned disease in the Midwest a number of times that could impact yields at harvest, and this has worried funds. The average yield was pegged at 182.7 bpa which compares to the USDA’s 188.8 bpa.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buy back a portion of their net short position. They bought back 31,464 contracts which reduced their short position to 144,650 contracts as of August 19.

Corn Futures Attempt to Bounce: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. However, losses tied to last week’s bearish USDA report were quickly reversed with a strong finish to the week. With December now the front month, a gap sits below the market between 380 and 400. On the upside, targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap near 430. 

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower with the September contract down 1 cent at $10.35-1/2 while November is down 1/4 cent at $10.58. October soybean meal is up $5.70 at $294 while October soybean meal is down 0.18 cents at 54.77 cents.

  • Some weakness today could be coming from comments made by China over the weekend. The country said that “rampant” US protectionism threatens agricultural ties as a result of the tariffs. Trade is likely concerned that China does not agree to a trade deal.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 35,273 contracts which flipped their net short position to a net long position of just 3 contracts. They sold 13,070 contracts of bean oil and bought back 24,070 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Rally Through Resistance: Soybean futures rallied sharply in early August after a bullish USDA report cut 2.5 million acres from 2025 harvested area projections. Prices broke through resistance near 1030 and have since held above it, with this zone now acting as support on any pullback. On the upside, the next key resistance stands at the spring highs near 1080, a level that has capped rallies for the past year. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with September Chicago wheat up 4-1/2 cents to $5.09 while September KC wheat is 3 cents higher to $5.01. Wheat has been sluggish but has likely been following corn’s recent turn higher.

  • The Argentinian wheat crop is expected to improve following rains in key areas boosting soil moisture and helping uptake of nutrients as farmers re-fertilize the crop.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as net sellers of Chicago wheat by 8,837 contracts which increased their net short position to 98,132 contracts. They sold 825 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 51,380 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-22 End of Day: Pro Farmer Estimates Corn Yield at 182.7 bpa, Soybean Yield at 53.0 bpa

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn trade ended the week quiet and mixed. Pro Farmer pegged national corn yield at 182.7 bpa, well below USDA’s 188.8 bpa forecast, in projections released Friday after the close.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher Friday but retreated from session highs. Pro Farmer projected the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, slightly below USDA’s latest estimate of 53.6 bpa.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week mixed, with winter wheat contracts lower while spring wheat finished fractionally higher. A sharp decline in the U.S. dollar provided little support to the complex.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn trade ended the week quiet and mixed. September gained 1 cent to 388 ¼, while December slipped ¼ cent to 411 ½. For the week, September added 4 ½ cents and December gained 6 ¼.

  • USDA announced new flash sales Friday — Costa Rica purchased 119,796 MT (4.7 mb) and Spain 140,452 MT (5.5 mb) for 2025/26 — underscoring strong new-crop demand.

  • Hot, dry weather across Europe is stressing crops as they approach maturity, raising yield concerns and potentially increasing EU import needs. France’s Ag Ministry projects national corn output 5.6% below last year on dryness and heat.

  • Pro Farmer pegged national corn yield at 182.7 bpa (range 180.9–184.5), well below USDA’s 188.8 bpa forecast, in projections released Friday after the close.

  • September futures saw options expiration today and will be moving towards first notice day next Friday. This could bring volatility and pressure to the September contract as producers may need to make pricing decisions regarding old crop bushels.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but slid off their daily highs into the close. September futures gained 2 cents to close at $10.36-1/2, 4 cents off their high, while November futures gained 2-1/2 cents to $10.58-1/2, also 4 cents off their high. Soybean oil led the complex higher with a gain of 1.20 cents to 54.84 in September while meal lost $0.10 to $296.70. Rumors of unconfirmed Chinese purchases supported the market.

  • The EPA issued decisions on 175 small refinery exemption petitions, granting 63 full waivers, 77 partial, and denying 28. The Renewable Fuels Association called the approach reasonable, and the outcome was viewed as supportive for soybean oil.

  • Pro Farmer’s survey reported strong soybean pod counts across most states. All but Indiana were above last year, and all exceeded the three-year average. Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota were sharply above average, with Illinois leading at 1,479 pods per 3’x3’ plot.

  • For the week, September soybeans gained 14-1/4 cents and between this and last week wiped out 5 prior consecutive weeks of losses. November soybeans gained 16 cents on the week, and September meal gained $13.30 while September bean oil gained 1.66 cents. Going forward, trade will look to a potential trade deal with China to establish whether this higher trend will continue.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat sustained small to modest losses today – September Chicago was down 2-1/4 cents to 504-3/4 while September Kansas City lost 5-1/4 cents to 498. Minneapolis MIAX futures fared slightly better with September up 1/4 cent at 569-1/2, though deferred contracts closed neutral to fractionally lower.

  • A sharp U.S. Dollar drop following Fed Chair Powell’s speech offered little support, while lower Matif wheat added pressure. Traders remain focused on heavy rains forecast for the U.S. Southern Plains, expected to benefit winter wheat planting.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry is reported to have re-established an export tax on wheat, at 32.1 Rubles/mt through September 2. Nevertheless, the recent price declines for U.S. wheat have made it much more competitive globally. U.S. HRW wheat is said to be at parity with offers from Russia and Argentina too.

  • Ukraine has collected 27.25 mmt of grain so far this season, down 5% from the 28.6 mmt harvested during the same time last year. Wheat accounted for 21 mmt of that total versus 21.7 mmt last year. About half of the wheat is said to be milling quality, and 1.7 mmt of it is being earmarked for making bread.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has stated that recent rains across Argentina’s growing region has helped to boost soil moisture levels and benefit the wheat crop. This moisture should aid in the uptake of nutrients when farmers add fertilizer. Total 25/26 planted area reached 6.7 million hectares, up from 6.3 million last season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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8-22 Midday: Midday Grain Market Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn continues to see some weakness at midday, pressured by reports from the ongoing crop tour, which is uncovering record-high yield estimates in key production states like Iowa and Minnesota. The market remains focused on concerns that demand may struggle to absorb the large volumes expected to be harvested this fall, adding further weight to prices.

  • USDA confirms the following sales of U.S corn for export in 2025/2026, 119,769 tons to Costa Rica and 140,452 tons to Spain.

  • The percentage of U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions rose slightly this week, up 1% to a total of 5%, compared to 7% during the same period last year. However, forecasts call for precipitation over the next five days across Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, which could bring relief to some of the driest regions.

  • The International Grains Council raised their global production estimates for corn by 23 million tons to 1.299 billion tons, on a larger than expected U.S. and South American crop.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, with strength seen across soybeans and soybean meal. The market is finding support following news that Pakistan has signed an agreement to purchase 1.1 million tons of U.S. soybeans, shifting a portion of its buying from South America to the United States.

  • The ongoing crop tour across the U.S. has uncovered several disease-related concerns in soybean fields. Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) and white mold were among the most notable issues observed, raising red flags about potential yield impacts. In addition, drought conditions are expanding, with the percentage of U.S. soybean acres under drought rising by 6% over the past week, further adding to market uncertainty.

  • The lack of buying from China continues to be a main concern for the soybean market, as the trade war continues.

  • Wheat futures are mixed at midday with pressure from rising global production estimates and the continued influx of new wheat into the market as harvest progresses. The expanding supply outlook is weighing on prices, with traders closely watching both domestic and international developments.

  • U.S. winter wheat acres under drought conditions rose by 2% this week, now totaling 31%, though still well below the 45% reported at this time last year. In contrast, drought coverage on hard red spring (HRS) wheat declined by 2%. Looking ahead, significant precipitation is forecast across the Southern Plains over the next week, which could bring much-needed relief to dry areas.

  • Ukraine’s Economic Ministry has revised its wheat crop estimate to 21 million metric tons, down slightly from 21.7 million tons last season.

  • The International Grains Council raised its global wheat production estimate by 3 million tons to 811 million tons, reflecting a stronger supply outlook. Meanwhile, Argentina’s crop conditions improved significantly, with 73% rated good to excellent — up 11% from last week — boosting expectations for the South American harvest.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-22 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher Heading Into Weekend

ByRyan Mainville

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets!   While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading unchanged to slightly lower in the back months with September unchanged at $3.87-1/4, December unchanged at $4.11-3/4, and March down 1/2 cent at $4.29-1/4. For the week, December corn is currently up 7 cents.

  • The ProFarmer tour found huge yields in both Minnesota and Iowa corn, tour records. Minnesota was seen at 202.86 bpa while Iowa was seen at 198.43 bpa. However, the tour found disease in some field which could lower yields at harvest.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were strong for corn at 2,833k tons which compared to 1,959k last week and 1,410k a year ago at this time. Top buyers were unknown, Mexico, and Spain.

Corn Futures Attempt to Bounce: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. However, losses tied to last week’s bearish USDA report were quickly reversed with a strong finish to the week. With December now the front month, a gap sits below the market between 380 and 400. On the upside, targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap near 430. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning following large gains posted yesterday as soybean oil led the complex higher. September soybeans are currently up 2-1/4 cents at $10.36-3/4 while November is up 2-1/2 at $10.58-1/2. October soybean meal is unchanged at $290 while October soybean oil is up 0.10 cents at 53.68 cents.

  • The ProFarmer tour similarly found big pod counts for soybeans in Minnesota with 1,248 pods found in 3’x3′ square which is well above last year. In Iowa they found 1,384 pods which was also above the previous year.

  • Soybean export sales yesterday were ok at 1,137k tons which was up from 755k last week and compared to 1,633k a year ago. Top destinations were to unknown, Spain, and Mexico.

Soybeans Rally Through Resistance: Soybean futures rallied sharply in early August after a bullish USDA report cut 2.5 million acres from 2025 harvested area projections. Prices broke through resistance near 1030 and have since held above it, with this zone now acting as support on any pullback. On the upside, the next key resistance stands at the spring highs near 1080, a level that has capped rallies for the past year. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning with September Chicago wheat down 1 cent at $5.06 while September KC wheat is down 1-1/2 cents at $5.01-3/4. For the week, Sep Chicago wheat is currently unchanged while KC is down 5 cents.

  • The Argentinian wheat crop is expected to improve following rains in key areas boosting soil moisture and helping uptake of nutrients as farmers re-fertilize the crop.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales fall to 482k tons which was down from 723k last week and 493k a year ago at this time. Top buyers were Mexico, South Korea, and Thailand.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-21 End of Day: Positive Export Data Lifts Corn and Soybean Markets

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn markets ended the day with gains, driven by strong export demand.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean markets finished today’s trade higher, supported by gains in the soybean oil market and a positive export sales report.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Markets ended the day mixed, facing resistance from a stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing global harvest activity bringing new crop to market.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw buying support, strong export demand, and technical buying supported the market today as Dec corn closed at its highest point in nearly three weeks. September closed 7 ¼ cents firmer at 387 ¼, while December gained 7 ¾ cents to 411 ¾. 

  • USDA announced weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending Aug 14, old crop corn sales saw reductions of 1.1 MMT, but new crop sales were an impressive 2.86 MMT (112.7 mb). Unknown destinations and Mexico were the largest buyers of US Corn last week. 

  • Total export sales for the new crop marketing year are 16.7 MMT (657 mb), which is up 111% over the pace last year and one of the strongest starts to the export program in the past 25 years. The current export total of 657 mb is 23% of the USDA target for the marketing year at 2.875 bb.

  • The Trump administration/EPA are expected to rule on a backlog of Small Refinery Exceptions (SRE) on Friday. The ruling could impact the blends of biofuels in consumer diesel and gasoline. If SRE’s are approved, the corn market may be impacted by a potentially less ethanol requirement. The potential ruling likely supported the corn and soybean markets on the session with short covering.

  • Pro Farmer will be completing its crop tour this afternoon and will release results for Iowa and Minnesota this evening. The Pro farmer group will release its corn and soybean yield estimates on Friday after the market closes.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean markets ended higher on Thursday as the September contract gained 19 ¼ cents to $10.34 ½ and November Futures pushed 20 cents higher to close at $10.56.  The soybean oil market was a big support to soybeans on the session as the nearby Sept futures gained $2.44/lb on the session, closing at $53.64.  Soymeal futures slipped on spread trading with October meal down 1.10/ton to $290/ton..

  • In Illinois, the crop tour found soybean pod counts at 1,479.22 per 3’x3′ plot which compared to 1,419.11. Illinois soybeans may be weaker than initially thought. Western Iowa pod counts were better than last year between 1,279.25 in the Northwest and 1,562.54 in the Southwest.

  • Today’s export sales report was relatively good for soybeans with net sales reductions of 6k tons for the 24/25 marketing year and an increase of 1,143k tons for the 25/26 marketing year, which was above most trade estimates.

  • The Trump administration/EPA are expected to rule on a backlog of Small Refinery Exceptions (SRE) on Friday.  The ruling could impact the blends of biofuels in consumer diesel and gasoline. The potential ruling likely supported the soybean markets on the session with short covering being triggered in the soybean oil futures.

  • The soybean market saw a possible technical breakout for a bullish wedge pattern as prices have consolidated around recent highs.  The breakout of this pattern today likely triggered some technical buying and short covering in the market.  The key will be follow-through in upcoming sessions.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite leading the charge higher overnight, wheat gave back some of its early gains by the close. This also comes despite a sharp move upward for soybean and corn futures. September Chicago gained 1-1/2 cents to 507, and September Kansas City gained 2-1/2 cents to 503-1/4. The rise today in the U.S. Dollar Index and increased global harvest estimates may have limited the upside for wheat; the International Grains Council increased their 25/26 production figure by 3 mmt to 811 mmt versus the USDA at 807 mmt.

  • According to the USDA, as of August 19, an estimated 31% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 2% from the week prior. During the same timeframe, spring wheat areas in drought decreased by 2% to 14%. The recent rains in the U.S. northern plains are causing some concerns about quality of the portion of the spring wheat crop that has not yet been harvested.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled about 19 mb, which was at the low end of expectations. Year to date, wheat sales commitments have reached 424 mb, which is up 23% from last year and well above the USDA’s forecast of up 6%.

  • LSEG commodities research has kept their estimate of Canadian 25/26 wheat production unchanged at 35.0 mmt. However, they are anticipating heat risks over the next 10 days for Alberta and Saskatchewan, which could affect late season development.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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8-21 Midday: Strong Export Sales Lead Corn and Soybeans Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are catching a bounce at midday with September futures trading 4-3/4 higher to $3.84-3/4 while the December contract is up 4-3/4 to $4.08-3/4.

  • Weekly corn export sales were once again strong, coming in above expectations at 112 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 2.776 billion bushels, which is up 26% from a year earlier.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn planted area could be up 9.6% to 19.2 million acres this fall.

  • The US is looking into unfair trade practices as Brazil imposes an 18% tariff on ethanol imports from the US, according to the National Corn Growers Association. This comes in the face of a large crop looming in the US.

  • Soybeans are higher at midday, supported by strong export sales. November futures are up 10 to $10.46-00 while January futures are up 9-1/2 to $10.64-3/4.

  • Weekly soybean export sales totaled 42 mb, which was towards the upper end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitment sit at 1.876 billion bushels, up 11.5% from last year.

  • The Pro Farmer crop tour has noted some exceptional yields but has also found some disease issues which could have an effect on final yield results.

  • Wheat prices are leaning lower at midday. December Chicago futures are 1-3/4 lower to $5.26-½, December KC is up 1/2 to $5.23-3/4, Minneapolis wheat is up 1/4 to $5.89-1/4.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat were lackluster, coming in at 19 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 424 mb, which is up 23% from last year and remains at a 5-year high.

  • SovEcon bumped Russia’s wheat forecast up from 85.2 mmt to 85.4 mmt for the 2025/26 season. The group cited favorable weather conditions as the reason for the increase in production.

  • LSEG left their wheat production estimate unchanged for the US, Canada, and Argentina. US is still pegged at 52.9 mmt, Canada at 35 mmt, and Argentina at 20.2 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-21 Opening Update: Grains Higher to Start the Day With Wheat Leading

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets!   While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning and have maintained support at the $4.00 level this week. September futures are up 2 cents at $3.82 while December is up 1-3/4 to $4.05-3/4.

  • The ProFarmer tour found yields in Illinois at 199.58 bpa which were below their estimates from last year and below USDA guesses. In Western Iowa, yields were found between 195.03 and 207.25 bpa which were above last year. While yields look promising, some disease risks were found as well.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 950k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,525k tons. This would compare to 1,959k a week ago and 1,410k a year ago.

Corn Futures Attempt to Bounce: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. However, losses tied to last week’s bearish USDA report were quickly reversed with a strong finish to the week. With December now the front month, a gap sits below the market between 380 and 400. On the upside, targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap near 430. 

  • Soybeans are higher this morning with the September contract up 1-1/4 cents to $10.16-1/4 while November soybeans are up 1 cent at $10.37. September soybean meal is up $0.20 at $292.20 while September soybean oil is up 0.26 cents at 51.46 cents.

  • In Illinois, the crop tour found soybean pod counts at 1,479.22 per 3’x3′ plot which compared to 1,419.11. Illinois soybeans may be weaker than initially thought. Western Iowa pod counts were better than last year between 1,279.25 in the Northwest and 1,562.54 in the Southwest.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 1,100k tons with an average guess of 800k tons. This would compare to 755k a week ago and 1,633k a year ago at this time.

Soybeans Rally Through Resistance: Soybean futures rallied sharply in early August after a bullish USDA report cut 2.5 million acres from 2025 harvested area projections. Prices broke through resistance near 1030 and have since held above it, with this zone now acting as support on any pullback. On the upside, the next key resistance stands at the spring highs near 1080, a level that has capped rallies for the past year. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with wheat leading the grain complex in general. The lack of a deal between Russia and Ukraine may be supportive or funds may finally be buying back short positions due to oversold conditions.

  • Russia’s Jul-Aug exports off 38% year over year as new vessel approval rules stall loadings; terminals overflowing with 120 ships awaiting clearance.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 500k and 825k tons with an average guess of 631k. This would compare to 723k tons a week ago and 493k a year ago.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-20 End of Day: Competitive U.S. Export Values Support Grains Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures edged higher Wednesday on light buying and continued demand support. USDA reported two flash sales Thursday morning as U.S. prices remain competitive globally.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans moved higher Wednesday as prices continue to consolidate above major moving averages.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Chicago wheat futures rebounded from fresh contract lows Wednesday, with KC and Minneapolis contracts also finishing higher. The recovery was driven by oversold conditions and competitive U.S. FOB Gulf values, which are trading roughly $10 below Russian offers.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures edged higher Wednesday on light buying and continued demand support. September closed ½ cent firmer at 380, while December added ¾ cent to 404.

  • USDA reported two flash sales Thursday morning—Mexico purchased 125,741 MT (5 mb) and Colombia 100,000 MT (3.9 mb) for 2025/26—as U.S. prices remain competitive globally.

  • Pro Farmer pegged Nebraska corn yields at 179.5 bpa (vs. 173.25 in 2024, 166.3 three-year avg) and Indiana at 193.82 bpa (vs. 187.54 in 2024, 182.09 thirty-year avg). The tour is moving into western Iowa and Illinois today.

  • The September corn options expire on Friday. The corn market may trade choppy going into options expiration as price flow to large areas of open interest for both September puts and calls.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher Wednesday, with September up 2 cents at $10.15 and November gaining 2 ¼ to $10.36. In products, September meal rose $4.60 to $292 while September oil slipped 0.48 cents to 51.20. November soybeans remain above all major moving averages and continue to consolidate.

  • Pro Farmer reported Nebraska pod counts at 1,348.3 per 3’x3’ square, above last year. Indiana pod counts came in at 1,376.6, below last year’s 1,409.

  • Brazil’s antitrust regulator (CADE) suspended the 20-year “Soy Moratorium,” ordering traders to end compliance within 10 days or face fines. The pact had barred purchases of soy grown on land cleared after July 2008. July exports totaled 12.3 mmt (+9% y/y), with 78% shipped to China. The move could boost Brazilian soybean and corn supply, heightening competition with the U.S.

  • The American Soybean Association urged President Trump to prioritize soybeans in U.S.–China trade talks, warning that retaliatory tariffs could shut U.S. farmers out of their largest export market heading into harvest.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After setting a new contract low Tuesday, Chicago wheat rebounded with September up 7 cents to 505 ½. Kansas City and Minneapolis posted smaller September gains, up 1 ¼ to 500 ¾ and up 1 ½ to 570, respectively. The bounce reflected oversold conditions and U.S. FOB Gulf values trading about $10 below Russian offers.

  • SovEcon raised its Russian wheat crop estimate by 0.2 mmt to 85.4 mmt, above USDA’s 83.5 mmt. Ongoing upward revisions to Russian output have weighed on global values in recent weeks.

  • Ukrainian grain exports have reached 3.1 mmt since their export season began on July 1. This represents a 52% decline from the 6.4 mmt shipped during the same time last year. Of the total, wheat accounts for 1.73 mmt, which is down 44% year over year.

  • Widespread rains across key winter wheat areas in the past month have left soil moisture above normal, improving crop prospects. Additional favorable rains are forecast in the coming weeks.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 608.50 target has been lowered to 606.75.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 658 target has been lowered to 657.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

From ag-wx.com

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8-20 Midday: Grains Shift Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn prices are moving higher at midday, supported by news of U.S. corn sales. The fresh demand has provided a boost to market sentiment, offering a slight lift to the market.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia and 125,741 tons to Mexico of U.S. corn for the 25/26 year.

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues to report strong results, with Ohio and South Dakota showing particularly impressive performance — prompting talk of potential record yields. Nebraska also posted a solid showing at 179.5 bushels per acre, its highest yield since 2021 and well above the previous average of 173.25. While weather conditions have introduced some variability in the fields, the tour has generally found record-level pod and ear counts across key areas. Today, the tour moves through Illinois and Iowa, where results will be closely watched to further assess the potential of this year’s crop.

  • Ethanol production declined to 315 million gallons last week, hitting a 12-week low compared to 321 million gallons the previous week and marking a 2.4% decrease year-over-year. Corn usage for ethanol production totaled 107 million bushels, averaging 15.26 million bushels per day—above the 14.92 million bushels per day needed to meet the USDA’s forecast.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and optimism following a recent soybean sale to Mexico. Both soybeans and soybean meal are showing gains, while soybean oil is trading lower.

  • As the Pro Farmer Crop Tour progresses across the U.S., scouts continue to report that soybean crops are in very good condition overall, with only minor trouble spots linked to localized weather issues. The tour is highlighting strong yield potential, with Nebraska and Indiana showing signs of possible record production.

  • Traders remain concerned about China’s demand for the new crop, as uncertainty lingers over whether a trade agreement can be reached in time to capitalize on the typical U.S. export window in the fall and early winter.

  • Brazil’s soybean exports for August are now projected at 8.9 million tons, up slightly from last week’s estimate of 8.8 million. Soymeal exports were also revised higher to 2.33 million tons, compared to 2.27 million previously. The increase comes as no surprise, with China continuing to turn to Brazil as a source for soybeans.

  • The American Soybean Association sent a letter to President Trump yesterday, urging the administration to avoid further prolonging the trade war with China. They emphasized the financial strain U.S. farmers are facing due to persistently low prices and reduced export volumes to China. In the letter, the organization called on the President to make soybeans a key priority in ongoing trade negotiations.

  • The wheat market posted gains at midday, supported by strength from a declining U.S. dollar, which is falling back toward recent lows.

  • IKAR increased its Russian wheat production estimate by 1 million metric tons, bringing the total to 85.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the European Union is facing a crop that is 16 million tons larger than last year’s harvest.

  • The U.S. spring wheat harvest has caught up to its typical pace and, as of this past Sunday, is approximately one-third complete.

  • Potential rainfall expected across the Southern Plains over the next week is helping to ease concerns about soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.