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10-13 Midday: Grain Markets Mixed: Soybeans and Wheat Up, Corn Under Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower to start the week, following Friday’s market reaction to President Trump’s announcement that he saw no reason to meet with China. While the news had a larger impact on soybeans, it also pressured corn, triggering heavy fund selling of approximately 19,500 contracts. Corn open interest rose by more than 22,000 contracts, indicating that new shorts were active in pushing prices lower.

  • The U.S. corn harvest is estimated at 45–50% complete. The pace is expected to slow later this week as scattered showers move into the western Corn Belt and spread eastward, with the 6–10 day forecast showing above-normal precipitation for the eastern Belt.

  • Brazil’s CONAB will release its 2025/26 estimates tomorrow. Planted area is expected to rise to 22.8 million hectares, up from 21.9 million last season, while production is anticipated at 141.3 million metric tons, compared with 139.7 million last year.

  • Soybean futures are trading higher at midday, posting modest gains as the market rebounds from Friday’s decline. Prices are recovering after President Trump’s announcement this morning that trade talks with China remain on track for early November. This follows his earlier statement on Friday, suggesting there was no reason to meet with China at that time. Meanwhile, soybean meal is posting slight losses, while soybeans and soybean oil are both seeing modest gains.

  • Patria reports that Brazil’s soybean planting is 12.48% complete, well ahead of 5.28% at the same time last year. Scattered rains are expected across parts of Brazil this week, which should improve soil moisture conditions and support further planting progress.

  • There will be no U.S. government data released today, but Brazil’s CONAB is set to publish its first outlook for the 2025/26 crop tomorrow morning. The agency is expected to project planted area at 49.1 million hectares, up from 47.4 million last season, with production forecast at 179 million metric tons compared to 171.5 million last year.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated to be around 65–70% complete. However, scattered rains across the western Corn Belt this week may slow harvest activity, with additional rainfall expected to move into the eastern Belt heading into the weekend.

  • Wheat futures are trading higher at midday despite reports of increased Russian production. Traders remain optimistic following President Trump’s statement that U.S.–China trade talks are on track for early November.

  • Open interest in wheat rose by nearly 15,000 contracts on the decline, suggesting that new sellers were confident in driving the market to fresh lows.

  • Wheat continues to struggle, with global supplies remaining ample and U.S. ending stocks weighing heavily on the market.

  • The Russian wheat export pace is accelerating this month, with estimates of 5.0 million tons shipped, up from 4.6 million in September. However, exports for the July–September period are down 30% compared to the same period last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-13 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Quietly Higher, Wheat Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning. December corn futures are up 3-4 cent to 413-7/4 and March futures are up 1/4 cent to 429-1/4.

  • The lack of USDA data continues to weigh on the market as traders take a defensive stance. Private analysts currently estimate U.S. corn yield slightly lower than the USDA’s 186.7, but expect feed and residual usage to decline 200 million bushels. If realized, this would increase ending stocks to 2,464 million bushels. 

  • The U.S. Dollar is trading higher this morning after failing to break through overhead resistance on Friday. Additional strength in the U.S. dollar will erode U.S. grains’ competitiveness in the global marketplace.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

  • Soybean futures have started the week higher with November futures up 1-1/2 cents to 1008-1/4 and January futures up 2 cents to 1025-1/4.

  • November soybean futures are trading at their lowest level since early October as renewed U.S. – China trade tensions have driven the market lower.

  • On Friday, President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, though the White House later indicated a willingness to reopen negotiations. Uncertainty remains over whether President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet for discussions at the upcoming APEC summit.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • Wheat futures have started the day mixed. December Chicago wheat futures are down 2-1/2 cents to 496. December KC wheat is down 1-1/2  cents to 481-1/2, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.52.

  • Private analysts expect that if the October WASDE report had been released, USDA would have raised Argentina, Russia, and Canada’s wheat production estimates.

  • SovEcon has raised its estimate for Russia’s 2025 wheat production, increasing it by 600,000 MT to 87.8 MMT. This compares to the USDA’s most recent forecast of 85 MMT. Additionally, Russia’s agriculture ministry reduced the wheat export tax by 35% to 318.6 rubles per metric ton through October 21 in an effort to boost export demand.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-10 End of Day: Grains Slide Friday on Harvest Pressure and Renewed China Concerns

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week under selling pressure as harvest activity and abundant supplies weighed on the market.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week sharply lower after President Trump indicated that the planned meeting with China’s President Xi later this month may no longer take place.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower in sympathy with corn and soybeans amid a broad “risk-off” session following reports of escalating U.S.–China tensions. All three U.S. wheat classes posted new contract lows.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the December 420 corn puts at approximately 11 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Sell half of the remaining December 420 corn puts today. The December corn contract is about 15 cents off its September high, providing an opportunity to continue incrementally scaling out of the December 420 puts, as this is seasonally the time of year when downside price risk can become more limited. Exiting half of the remaining position leaves just 25% of the original position in place, continuing to provide downside price protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with selling pressure as harvest pressure and large supplies originally pressured the market. A late morning announcement by President Trump regarding China and trade only added to the selling pressure. December corn lost 5 ¼ cents to 413, and March fell 5 cents to 429.  For the week, December corn lost 6 cents.

  • The technical outlook for corn weakened, with the December contract posting its lowest close since August 28. The combination of a soft technical picture and large harvest-time supplies may keep pressure on the market into next week.

  • President Trump announced that trade tension with China have increased, and the possible meeting between himself and President XI of China could not happen at the end of the month. In addition, the administration weigh ideas for “massive” new tariffs on Chinese imports.

  • Broader markets reflected a “risk-off” tone for the second consecutive session, as rising trade tensions fueled volatility and prompted profit-taking.

  • Temperatures through the middle of the month are expected to remain above normal, but precipitation will be more scattered from west to east.  The forecast should allow harvest to move at a good pace.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the remaining January 1040 puts for approximately 29 cents, minus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-half of the remaining January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to continue reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed the week lower across the entire complex, on weakness in bean oil on an unexpected rise in September Malaysian palm oil stocks reaching a two-year high and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the upcoming U.S.-China meeting in early November. November soybeans are down 15-½ cents at 10.06-¾.

  • China continues to show little interest in U.S. soybeans. After returning from their Golden Week holiday, Chinese crushers purchased roughly half a dozen cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December shipment. This development is concerning for traders, as the window for U.S. soybeans to meet China’s import needs narrows ahead of the South American harvest in early 2026. Adding further uncertainty, President Trump indicated Friday that the planned meeting with China’s President Xi later this month may no longer take place.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated to be 39% complete and is expected to reach 58% by the end of the upcoming weekend. These estimates come from private analysts, as the USDA is not releasing reports during the government shutdown.

  • The area of U.S. soybeans affected by drought increased by 2%, reaching 39%, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The five-day outlook indicates continued dry conditions, followed by above-average precipitation during days 6 to 10.

  • The continued absence of fundamental data — following a second week without export sales reports or commitments of trader positions — is keeping the market in a broad near-term range until the government reopens. In this environment, prices are increasingly sensitive to headlines and technical signals.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in sympathy with corn and soybeans. A general risk off session was established after news outlets reported increasing tensions between the US and China. All three US wheat classes established new contract lows – December Chicago lost 8 cents at 498-1/2, Kansas City was down 6-3/4 to 483, and MIAX closed 5-1/4 lower at 551-3/4. Reports indicate China will begin imposing port fees on U.S. vessels next week, while President Trump may raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Uncertainty also surrounds the anticipated meeting between the two nations’ leaders later this month, which could delay progress on trade negotiations.

  • Also bearish today was the fact that SovEcon once again increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production, this time by 600,000 mt to 87.8 mmt. This compares to the most recent USDA forecast of 85 mmt. In related news, the Russian agriculture ministry reduced the wheat export tax by 35% to 318.6 Rubles/mt through October 21, with the goal of increasing export demand.

  • As reported by Interfax, Russia might increase their grain export quota in 2026 to a level above this year’s. The 2025 wheat export quota in particular was 10.6 mmt. Their quotas are valid annually between February 15 through June 30. Additionally, Russia has reported collecting 130 mmt of grain so far, with wheat harvest having reached 91.5 mmt as of October 8; this is 6.5 mmt above last year.

  • Since their export season began on July 1, Ukraine has shipped 7.2 mmt of grain through October 10. This is down 39% year over year. Of that total, wheat accounts for 5.12 mmt, which is down nearly 25% year over year.

  • In Brazil, harvest is just beginning in the top-producing state of Rio Grande do Sul, estimated at 1% complete. About 58% of the crop is in the filling stage and 18% is mature. With 1.2 million hectares planted, production potential remains strong at this stage.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.25.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 597.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 597.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 575 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 585 to 575.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 631 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 631.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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10-10 Midday: Grains Slide Lower at Midday Amid Market Uncertainty

ByLisa Heder

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn continues to trade lower at midday, as traders remain uncertain whether export demand is improving amid the lack of official export data. That uncertainty is contributing to additional downward pressure on the corn market during the government shutdown. December corn is trading lower at 4.13 ¼ at midday.

  • The corn market hit a new low for the week, pressured by weakness in the soybean market and comments from President Trump regarding lower gasoline prices — a factor that could also lead to lower crude oil values.

  • Argentina’s soybean planting is 25.6% complete, up from 19% at this time last year. The total planted area is expected to increase by 700,000 hectares compared to a year ago.

  • The U.S. harvest continues to make rapid progress, supported by favorable weather over the next five days. However, above-normal precipitation is expected across the western Corn Belt during days 6–10 of the forecast period.

  • Pressure continues on the soybean market at midday, driven by weakness in soybean oil following an unexpected rise in September Malaysian palm oil stocks — now at a two-year high. The entire soy complex trades lower at midday. November soybeans are trading lower at 10.04 ¾ at midday.

  • The soybean market is showing some skepticism after President Trump announced yesterday that he expects China to begin purchasing U.S. soybeans following the November meeting. However, he also indicated that if no progress is made, he is likely to increase pressure — a statement the market interpreted as a bearish signal.

  • The lack of official reports during the government shutdown has left soybeans more sensitive to headlines and technical factors. Meanwhile, China reportedly purchased up to six cargoes of Brazilian soybeans yesterday, following the end of its Golden Week holiday, putting additional downward pressure on the soybean market.

  • Wheat prices continue to move toward new contract lows, pressured by another increase in Russia’s crop estimates. December wheat is down midday at 4.98 ½.

  • SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production estimate to 87.8 million tons, up from 87.2 million tons previously. Meanwhile, Russia indicated it may increase its export quota early next year.

  • Brazil’s wheat harvest is beginning in Rio Grande do Sul, the country’s largest wheat-producing state.

  • French SRW wheat is now 5% planted compared to 8% a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-10 Opening Update: Soybeans Lead Grains Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1 cent to 417-1/4 and March futures are down 1 cent to 433.

  • The October WASDE report, originally due yesterday, was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown. The October report is critical for updating yield and production estimates as harvest progresses.

  • The U.S. Dollar is trading lower this morning after closing at a two month high yesterday. Continued strength in the dollar will act as a headwind for U.S. grain exports.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

  • Soybean futures have fallen overnight with November futures down 8 cents to 1014-1/4 and January futures down 8-1/4 cents to 1030-1/4.

  • China’s expansion of export restrictions on rare earth metals has created doubts that an agreement on soybean purchases can be reached.

  • The lack of guidance from the October WASDE report is pressuring the soybean market. Analysts expected to see a yield cut in the October report if it was released.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • Wheat futures have started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1-3/4 cents to 504-3/4. December KC wheat is down 2-1/2  cents to 487-1/4, and December MPLS wheat is down 1 cent to 5.57.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s wheat production estimate by 3 mmt to 23 mmt, which would mark a record high. The increase reflects strong yield potential and favorable soil moisture following above-average rainfall. For comparison, USDA’s latest forecast stands at 19.5 mmt.

  • Market intelligence firm Expana raised its EU soft wheat production estimate by 0.3 mmt to 136.4 mmt, still below USDA’s 140 mmt forecast. If realized, the crop would set a record high and come in 22.8 mmt above last year’s output.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-9 End of Day: Grain Complex Slides as Prices Weaken Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Ongoing harvest pressure on corn triggered broad weakness across the markets, with prices ending the session lower across the board.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Growing skepticism surrounding next month’s U.S.-China trade talks between President Trump and President Xi weighed on the soybean market, which pulled back and closed lower on the day.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets surrendered early gains to close lower, pressured by strength in the U.S. dollar.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the December 420 corn puts at approximately 11 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Sell half of the remaining December 420 corn puts today. The December corn contract is about 15 cents off its September high, providing an opportunity to continue incrementally scaling out of the December 420 puts, as this is seasonally the time of year when downside price risk can become more limited. Exiting half of the remaining position leaves just 25% of the original position in place, continuing to provide downside price protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fell under selling pressure amid ongoing harvest activity and a broader “risk-off” sentiment, as most equity and commodity markets trended lower. December corn slipped 3 ¾ cents to 418 ¼, and March fell 3 3/4 cents to 434.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index continues to strengthen, reaching its highest level since July, and challenge the 100-basis point level. A firmer dollar may act as a headwind for U.S. export competitiveness. 

  • Rosario Grain Exchange released their projections for the 2025-26 Argentina corn crop. Current planting is 28% complete. The crop is expected to be planted on 9.7 million Hectare (23.9 acres). Total production is forecast to be near 61 MMT or 2.401 billion bushels. If achieved, it would be a new record.

  • With producers moving off soybean harvest, hedge pressure from a ramping up corn harvest will likely limit the market.

  • Due to large supplies of old crop and new crop, commercial storage for this fall’s corn harvest may be tight and at a premium. The overrun of bushels not finding storage will likely get pushed onto the cash corn market.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the remaining January 1040 puts for approximately 29 cents, minus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-half of the remaining January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to continue reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans pulled back today after seeing gains yesterday. There appears to be some skepticism now regarding talks next month between President Trump and China’s President Xi. November soybean futures closed 7-1/4 cents lower to $10.22-1/4.

  • U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated in a cabinet meeting today that once the government shutdown ends, a new program for farmers can be implemented.

  • Weekly export sales data was delayed due to the government shutdown but many analysts are still expecting soybean sales between 0.6 and 1.6 mmt for the week of October 2.

  • StoneX reported on Wednesday that they see Brazil’s biodiesel demand increasing more than 6% in 2026 to 10.5 billion litres. The group also said they see an increase in soybean oil usuage as well.

  • The 8-14 day weather outlook shows above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for much of the Western soybean belt.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat struggled to hold onto early gains and closed lower in both Chicago and Kansas City futures. MIAX Minneapolis futures, in contrast, did make small gains this session. Dec Chi closed 3/4 cent lower at 506-1/2, KC down 3-1/2 to 489-3/4, and MIAX was up 1-1/2 to 557. From a technical perspective, all three classes are at or very close to oversold levels – this may provide longer term support under the market.

  • Wheat futures were initially higher following reports of a major Russian strike on the Odessa port overnight. Additional support came from comments by Russia’s agriculture minister, who noted that the country’s farmers are expected to plant about 6% fewer winter and spring wheat acres, shifting more acreage toward oilseeds. However, by the end of the session, another strong move higher in the U.S. dollar and renewed talk of increasing South American supply kept U.S. wheat markets under pressure.

  • In an update from the Rosario Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat production estimate was increased by 3 mmt to 23 mmt. If reached, that would be a new record; the increase is the result of high yield potential and adequate soil moisture after above-average rainfall. For reference, the USDA is projecting a 19.5 mmt crop.

  • According to Expana, a market intelligence company, their European Union soft wheat production estimate was raised by 0.3 mmt to 136.4 mmt, which still falls below the USDA forecast at 140 mmt. However, if realized, this would still be a record high and also be up 22.8 mmt from last year’s crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.25.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.72 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 599.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 575 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 585 to 575.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 631 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 631.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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10-9 Midday: Wheat Market Remains Higher at Midday, Corn and Soybeans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is slightly weaker at midday, pressured by the ongoing harvest. December corn is up a 00-1/2 cent to $4.22-1/4, with March futures 00-3/4 cent lower to $4.37-00.

  • LSEG has lowered their Chinese corn production estimate by less than 1% from their previous estimate to 298.2 mmt.

  • China’s Ag Ministry lowered the countries corn imports forecast by 1 mmt to 6 mmt. They also lowered October corn stocks by 1 mmt to 2.46 mmt.

  • Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday as optimism drops regarding talks between President Trump and China’s Xi. November soybeans are down 4-00 cents to $10.25-1/2, while January futures are 3-00 cents lower to $10.41-1/4.

  • Anec sees Brazil’s October soybean exports at 7.1 mmt, up from 4.44 mmt during October 2024. Soybean meal exports during the month are estimated at 1.92 mmt, down from 2.46 mmt in October last year.

  • StoneX sees Brazil’s biodiesel demand increasing by 6.3% in 2026 to 10.5 billion litres. The increase in biodiesel will also increase soybean oil usage.

  • Wheat prices remain higher at midday on some short covering. December Chicago futures are up 4-00 cents to $5.11-1/4, December KC is up 00-1/4 cent to $4.93-1/2-, and December Minneapolis is up 4-3/4 cents to $5.60-1/4.

  • SovEcon reported that Siberia’s could see some c.rop losses as the country is experiencing its first snowfall of the year. There is an estimated 2 million tonnes left to harvest which is likely contributing to the short covering in the wheat market today.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange increased their wheat production estimate in Argentina yesterday to 23 mmt, up 3 mmt from the previous estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-09 Opening Update: Corn, Soybeans Slip, Wheat Rises

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1-1/4 cents to 420-3/4 and March futures are down 1-1/2 cents to 436-1/4.

  • Corn spreads are showing renewed strength on the front end, with the Dec–Mar spread narrowing to its tightest level since July. The move may reflect strong demand, producer holding, or tighter nearby supplies supporting the front months.

  • The U.S. Dollar is trading at a two month high. Continued strength in the dollar will act as a headwind for U.S. grain exports.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

  • Soybean futures have started the day lower with November futures down 4-3/4 cents to 1024-3/4 and January futures down 4-3/4 cents to 1039-1/2.

  • A key hurdle for U.S. soybean markets and potential trade progress with China is the planned implementation of port fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports, set to begin October 14. Analysts warn the new fees could hinder ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries.

  • Private analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the USDA to lower its soybean yield estimate once the agency resumes releasing data.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • Wheat has started the day higher. December Chicago wheat futures are up 2-1/4 cents to 509-1/2. December KC wheat is up 2-1/4 cents to 495-1/2, and December MPLS wheat is up 4 cents to 5.59.

  • Traders will not receive the scheduled monthly WASDE report due to the government shutdown, though private analysts continue to release estimates. A Bloomberg survey pegs 2025/26 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 880 mb, up from 844 mb in September, while global carryout is estimated at 265.9 mmt versus 264.1 mmt in the last USDA report.

  • SovEcon raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop by 1.5 mmt to 22.9 mmt, citing higher yields. The group also lifted its 2025/26 wheat export estimate to 16.8 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-8 End of Day: Soybean Rally Continues, Corn and Wheat Futures Follow Higher Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended slightly higher Wednesday, continuing to consolidate around the $4.20 level. Ethanol production rebounded to 315 million bushels per day last week, up from 293 mb/day previously and above expectations.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher across the entire soy complex Wednesday, supported by optimism surrounding the potential meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Despite early weakness and a stronger U.S. dollar—now at its highest level since early August—wheat futures managed to close higher across all three classes.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the December 420 corn puts at approximately 11 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Sell half of the remaining December 420 corn puts today. The December corn contract is about 15 cents off its September high, providing an opportunity to continue incrementally scaling out of the December 420 puts, as this is seasonally the time of year when downside price risk can become more limited. Exiting half of the remaining position leaves just 25% of the original position in place, continuing to provide downside price protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices continue to grind around the 420-price area, being held in check by the 100-day moving average over the December contract, as prices finished with small gains on Wednesday. December futures gained 2 ¼ cents to 422. March added 1 ½ cents to 437 ¾.

  • Corn spreads are showing some buying strength is the front end of the market as the Dec-Mar corn spread has been eliminating some carry and trading at its tightest level since July. This could be a reflection of the strong demand, producers holding bushels, or a tighter supply causing strength in the front months.

  • Ethanol production recovered last week to 315 mb/day, up from 293 mb/day last week. This production total was above expectations. A total of 106.7 mb was used for ethanol grind last week, which is behind the pace needed to hit USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • The Trump administration has delayed announcing a producer aid package as the ongoing government shutdown has limited administrative capacity to finalize details.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index continues to strengthen, reaching its highest level since early August. A firmer dollar may act as a headwind for U.S. export competitiveness.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the remaining January 1040 puts for approximately 29 cents, minus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-half of the remaining January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to continue reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean market wrapped up the midweek trading session with gains across the entire soy complex. Markets remain encouraged by optimism surrounding the potential upcoming meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi, which could have implications for trade and tariffs. November soybean futures are trading up at $10.29 ¾.

  • A major obstacle for U.S. soybean markets and a potential trade deal with China is the upcoming implementation of port fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports, scheduled to begin October 14. Some analysts fear these fees could derail any progress on trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

  • With the government shutdown delaying USDA reports, trade estimates are being used as a proxy. Today’s trade estimates put the average U.S. soybean yield at 53.2 BPA, with ending stocks at 317 million bushels, up from 300 million in September. Global ending stocks are expected to decline slightly. While U.S. soybean yields showed a modest drop, the decline was less pronounced than that seen in corn.

  • Argentina’s oilseed workers had planned a strike today over wages and benefits, but the government intervened and initiated a mandatory 15-day conciliation period to negotiate a deal. Historically, such strikes have tended to support U.S. soybean meal and oil prices.

  • Brazil’s soybean exports are projected to reach 102.2 million tons through the end of October, surpassing the previous record of 101.3 million tons for this period set in 2023, according to Anec figures. The surge is driven by strong Chinese demand and the absence of U.S. soybean shipments to China, which has redirected purchases to Brazil.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite early weakness and a stronger U.S. dollar—now at its highest level since early August—wheat futures managed to close higher across all three classes. The December Chicago contract gained 1/2 cent to close at 507-1/4, while Kansas City was up 1-1/4 at 493-1/4, and MIAX moved 3-1/2 higher to 555-1/2.

  • Russian cash wheat values are said to have weakened yesterday for the first time in several weeks. Additionally, FOB values between large global exporters are close together, keeping competition stiff. According to the International Grains Council, U.S. Gulf HRW offers are $229/mt, compared with $226 for French wheat, and $231 for Russian wheat.

  • Ukrainian wheat exports July through September totaled 4.7 mmt. This is down 23% year over year; however, shipments out of the Black Sea area are expected to increase, which may limit upside for U.S. futures. For example, according to Rusagrotrans, Russian October wheat shipments could reach 5.1 mmt, which would be up from 4.6 mmt shipped in September.

  • Tomorrow, traders will not receive the previously scheduled monthly WASDE report due to the government shutdown. However, private analysts are still being polled. According to a Bloomberg survey, the average estimate of 25/26 wheat ending stocks comes in at 880 mb, up from 844 in September. Global wheat carryout is estimated at 265.9 mmt, versus 264.1 on the September USDA report.

  • SovEcon has increased their projection of Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop, reportedly due to higher yields. The wheat production forecast was upped 1.5 mmt to 22.9 mm. Additionally, the 25/26 wheat export estimate was raised to 16.8 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.25.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.72 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 599.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 575 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 585 to 575.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 631 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 631.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 7-day temperature forecast courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-8 Midday:  Grain Markets See Midday Swings

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are mixed at midday as the harvest season enters its peak. Over the next two weeks, a surge in corn supply is expected as freshly harvested grain flows into the market. December corn is up at $4.20 ½.

  • Ethanol production rebounded to 315 million gallons for the week ending October 3, up from 293 million the previous week and 3.2% higher than the YA. This week’s production came in above expectations.

  • Corn planting in Brazil is approximately 40% complete, keeping pace with seasonal expectations.

  • Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn yield estimate to 181 BPA, down 1 bushel from his previous forecast.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday across the entire soy complex, supported by optimism surrounding upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. President Trump referenced the meeting with President Xi again yesterday, boosting market sentiment. November soybeans are up at midday at $10.25 ¾.

  • Port fees on certain Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports are still scheduled to take effect on October 14, potentially undermining any trade optimism between the U.S. and China and putting downward pressure on soybean markets.

  • The U.S. farm aid package is expected to be announced this week. Its release was delayed due to the government shutdown, and it is anticipated to total $10–$15 billion, including support for soybean producers affected by tariffs.

  • Wheat markets are trading higher at midday. Despite pressure from the rallying U.S. dollar, the market is finding support from recent news out of Russia. December wheat is up at 5.07 1/4.

  • Russian exports are starting to pick up, and the weaker euro is improving the EU’s export competitiveness.

  • Russia announced this morning that a President Trump broken cease-fire deal appears to have fallen through, potentially prompting the U.S. and EU to intensify pressure on Russia.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.