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01-24 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower Following Yesterday’s Rally

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 484.25 -5.5
JUL ’25 496.25 -4.5
DEC ’25 461.75 -2.5

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1051.5 -14
JUL ’25 1075.5 -13
NOV ’25 1043.5 -9.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 547.5 -6.5
JUL ’25 571.75 -6.5
JUL ’26 632.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 563.5 -7.25
JUL ’25 582 -7.75
JUL ’26 630 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 598 -6.5
JUL ’25 618.75 -6
SEP ’25 629.75 -5

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6146.75 -5.25

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 75.05 0.43

Gold

APR ’25 2812.5 20.6

  • Corn futures are trading lower this morning with the March contract giving back all of yesterday’s gains so far. Yesterday afternoon, Argentina reported it would lower its export duties on all grains to relieve the agricultural sector which is pressuring all grains.

  • JFK Jr. has proposed a ban on high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) for human consumption—a move that could impact the U.S. corn market, which uses approximately 1.3–1.4 billion bushels of corn annually for HFCS production.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,067k tons. This would compare to 1,025k a week ago and 992k a year ago.

  • Soybean futures are trading lower this morning giving back all of yesterday’s gains and then some following Argentina’s announcement that they would lower export duties on grains. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.

  • President Trump is eyeing February 1 to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The commodities market is bracing for a rollercoaster ride as headlines flip between optimism and tension on the tariff front.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 600k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,067k tons. This would compare to last week’s 569k and 561k a year ago. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. The move lower in grains comes despite a move lower in the dollar which tends to have an inverse relationship.

  • While wheat continues to lag behind corn and soybeans, bulls point to the near-record gap between managed money’s net short position in wheat and its net long position in corn.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 425k tons. This would compare to 522k a week ago and 510k a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-23 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans End the Day with Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After a down day for corn yesterday, corn futures rebounded today, closing higher as Argentina crops continue to struggle with dry weather.

  • Soybeans closed higher today driven by higher soybean oil and declining crop conditions in Argentina.

  • As the threat of winterkill diminishes across the U.S. with warming temperatures and the end of the cold snap, wheat prices closed lower for the day.

  • To see the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close last week, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market rejected yesterday’s turn lower in prices to push to new highs for the move during Thursday’s session. March corn futures is trading 5 ½ cents higher on the week going into Friday’s trade, closing today at its highest price point since late May.

  • Argentina’s crops continue to struggle with dry weather, and longer-range forecasts indicate slightly below-normal precipitation in the 10-15 day outlook. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn crop ratings to 80% in the normal/excellent category, while 20% of the crop is now rated poor, up 6% from last week.

  • Weekly ethanol production recovered a little last week to 323 million gallons/day. There was 111 mil. bu. used last week in ethanol production which is still trending ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA target.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for new sales to be 700,000-1.7 MMT. Last week’s sales were just over 1.0 MMT.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: The March ‘25 contract remains up over one dollar from its December low of 947.00, marking this as a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, taking back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. While trade was higher, the March contract failed at the 200-day moving average at $10.76 and retreated nearly 10 cents. Today’s move was mostly driven by higher soybean oil despite concerns over the 45z tax credit while soybean meal was mixed with lower prices in the front months and higher in the deferred.

  • Despite Argentinian weather improving over the past few days, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its weekly crop update that estimated a decline in normal to excellent conditions by 7% to 72%. At this time last year, 92% of the crop was rated normal to excellent, and the 5-year average is 81%.

  • Yesterday, soybean futures were driven lower by soybean oil after President Trump signed an executive order for a regulatory freeze for new policy which included the 45z tax credit proposal. There have been concerns that the 45z credit may not go through.

  • President Trump has indicated that tariffs were coming for Canada and Mexico on February 1, and today it was reported that a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports would be put in place on the 1st as well. While this was expected, the Chinese stock market fell, and exports of soybeans could be affected.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • With the exception of the May Chicago contract, wheat futures closed neutral to lower today. As warmer temperatures are expected in the central U.S., the threat of winterkill is diminishing, which is contributing to the decline in prices.

  • A French dock worker’s union has initiated port strikes, including at the largest grain terminals. The strikes are set to occur on 13 days from January 23 to February 28, with each lasting four hours. Additionally, work will be halted for 48 hours on January 30 and 31. The strikes are reportedly driven by several issues, including pension reform, and could impact the flow of grains.

  • From a technical perspective, Kansas City futures appear to have run into resistance around the 100-day moving average. The March contract did break above this level yesterday but has closed below it for the second day in a row. As of today’s close, the 100-day MA sits at 576-3/4.

  • Japan is reported to have made a 127,000 mt purchase of wheat, with 15,000 mt of that being U.S. HRW, and 16,000 mt being U.S. white wheat. The rest was sourced from Australia and Canada.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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01-23 Midday: Soybeans Lead Grains Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 492 7.75
JUL ’25 503 7.25
DEC ’25 462.75 3.25
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1066 10
JUL ’25 1088.5 9.75
NOV ’25 1054.75 8
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 556 2
JUL ’25 580.25 2
JUL ’26 634.75 0.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 572.5 -2.25
JUL ’25 591.25 -2.75
JUL ’26 635.5 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 605 -1.5
JUL ’25 625.25 -2
SEP ’25 635.25 -1.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6127.75 7.25
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 75.13 -0.31
Gold
APR ’25 2784.1 -13.3

  • Corn prices are trending higher at midday on some flow over support from yesterday’s export sale of 136,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations.

  • ADM has declared force majeure at their Gulf ports in the U.S. due to the historic snowstorm event that blanketed the Southern U.S. with snow.

  • There is some uncertainty surrounding the ethanol industry as Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has been opposed to ethanol mandates and farm subsidies in the past.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday after a sluggish start on news of China suspending soybean imports from Brazil.

  • China has suspended soybean imports from Brazil after contamination was found from five shipping firms. Brazil has notified China that they will increase inspections and request the suspensions be lifted.

  • There are some concerns around biofuels after the Biden administrations 45z biofuel tax credit was halted by the new administration for 60 days for review.

  • Wheat futures are trading higher at midday on drier weather forecasts for the Plains states over the next five days.

  • The U.S. attache in Australia left their Australian wheat production number unchanged at 32 mmt, but raised ending stocks 3.112 mmt.

  • French dockworkers unions are scheduled to go on strike today which will affect port operations and wheat shipments.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-23 Opening Update: Grains Steady to Lower Overnight

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 483.75 -0.5
JUL ’25 495 -0.75
DEC ’25 459.25 -0.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1053.5 -2.5
JUL ’25 1076.75 -2
NOV ’25 1046.5 -0.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 551 -3
JUL ’25 575.25 -3
JUL ’26 634 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 571.75 -3
JUL ’25 590.25 -3.75
JUL ’26 635.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 604.75 -1.75
JUL ’25 626.5 -0.75
SEP ’25 634.25 -2.75

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6108 -12.5

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 75.74 0.3

Gold

APR ’25 2780.4 -17

  • March corn is showing some weakness this morning but is making a comeback after dipping nearly four cents to its overnight low.

  • JFK Jr. has proposed a ban on high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) for human consumption—a move that could impact the U.S. corn market, which uses approximately 1.3–1.4 billion bushels of corn annually for HFCS production.

  • So far this year, March corn has climbed about 25 cents. If the rally continues and hits 514.25, it would wipe out all the losses from the 2024 sell-off on the front-month continuous chart.

  • March soybeans are rebounding from their overnight low of 1047.75, where they traded down about 8 cents.

  • Brazil has halted soy shipments from five firms to China due to contamination concerns. According to Brazil’s agriculture ministry, China’s General Administration of Customs flagged instances of “non-conformity.”

  • March soybeans lost one-third of Tuesday’s gains yesterday after reports surfaced that President Trump is eyeing February 1 to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The commodities market is bracing for a rollercoaster ride as headlines flip between optimism and tension on the tariff front.

  • Wheat is trading slightly lower this morning, with overnight price fluctuations ranging from four to six cents. Today’s dip follows yesterday’s selling pressure, which knocked Chicago and Kansas City wheat prices well off their intraday Tuesday highs.

  • Japan purchased 15,663 metric tons of Western White wheat and 15,130 metric tons of Hard Red Winter wheat from the U.S. in a regular tender. The total tender of 126,893 metric tons also included wheat sourced from Canada and Australia.

  • While wheat continues to lag behind corn and soybeans, bulls point to the near-record gap between managed money’s net short position in wheat and its net long position in corn.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-22 End of Day: Corn Retreats from Multi-Month Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market retreated from multi-month highs today, pressured by technical overbought conditions.

  • Soybean futures closed lower as an improved weather outlook for South America eased concerns about crop stress.

  • Wheat futures ended in the red, with Chicago leading the losses. Weakness in corn and soybeans spilled over into wheat, amplifying the selloff.

  • To see the 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the U.S. seasonal drought outlook, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close last week, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices finished the day lower after making 8-month highs early on. Improved weather patterns in South America weighed on the market, contributing to the late-session pullback.

  • The USDA announced a private export sale of 136,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery. While this news supported prices early in the session, the market ultimately faded by the close.

  • S&P global raised their 2025 corn acre forecast to 93.5 mmt. This is up 700,000 acres from their forecast in December and nearly 3 million acres more than 2024.

  • The corn market treads in overbought territory with funds now estimated to be long over 320,000 contracts. Many feel it would take worsening conditions in South America to sustain rallies above the $5.00 level.

  • Weekly ethanol production data has been delayed until Thursday morning due to Monday’s holiday.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1067.25, the contract stood over one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, taking back a portion of yesterday’s impressive gains. Yesterday’s rally was fueled by a sharp drop in the dollar, wet Brazilian harvest conditions, and an issue with grain shipments from Brazil to China. Today was likely a technical pullback that was accelerated by lower soybean oil while soybean meal ended higher.

  • Yesterday, it was reported that Brazilian shipments of soybeans were suspended by China after 5 different Chinese firms found that the shipments did not meet phytosanitary requirements. There were concerns after some cargoes were found with chemical contamination, pests, or insects.

  • President Trump has indicated that tariffs were coming for Canada and Mexico on February 1, and today it was reported that a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports would be put in place on the 1st as well. While this was expected, the Chinese stock market fell, and exports of soybeans could be affected due to retaliations.

  • Weather in South America remains mixed: Argentina continues to see necessary rain, while persistent rainfall in Brazil is delaying the harvest and raising potential quality concerns. Brazilian soybeans were planted late, however, so a later harvest would be expected.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat joined corn and soybeans in posting losses, with the Chicago contract leading the decline. Factors contributing to the weaker trade included profit-taking, a lower close for Matif wheat, and uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and sanctions.

  • S&P Global increased their 2025 total acreage forecast by 1.1 million to 47.1 million acres. Their winter wheat projection in particular stands at 34.115 million acres, which is in line with the most recent USDA estimate.

  • SovEcon left their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production steady at 78.7 mmt, which would be the lowest since 2021. With that said, if a significant cold spell occurs, minimal snow cover means that winterkill could be an issue that reduces overall production.

  • According to the GASC vice chairman, Egypt intends to import between 5-6 mmt of wheat during the 24/25 season for their subsidized bread program. Total season imports are anticipated at 12.5 mmt; Egypt is one of the top global importers of wheat.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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01-22 Midday: Wheat Sees Midday Gains, Soybeans and Corn Fall

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 487.25 -2.75
JUL ’25 498 -3
DEC ’25 458.75 -1
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1056 -11.25
JUL ’25 1077.75 -9.5
NOV ’25 1044.5 -5.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 558.75 0
JUL ’25 582.25 0.5
JUL ’26 636.5 -0.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 577.25 1.75
JUL ’25 596.25 1.75
JUL ’26 640 3.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 607 2.5
JUL ’25 627.25 1.5
SEP ’25 638.75 2.5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6123.75 39.5
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 75.56 -0.27
Gold
APR ’25 2796.6 11

  • Corn prices are lower at midday, influenced by the potential for improved weather conditions in parts of Argentina and ongoing negotiations regarding potential tariffs.

  • USDA confirms sale of 136,000 mt of U.S. corn delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 year.

  • Dr. Cordonnier reduced his Argentine corn estimate by 1 mt, bringing it to 48 million, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 51 million, while leaving Brazil’s forecast unchanged.

  • Corn prices remain supported by expectations that President Trump will urge China to honor the Phase 1 trade agreement from his first term, potentially leading to significant U.S. corn purchases.

  • Soybean prices continue to decline at midday, following China’s announcement today. While soybeans and soybean oil remain lower, soybean meal experiences some gains.

  • China has suspended soybean imports from five Brazilian firms due to failure to meet phytosanitary standards. Sources indicate concerns arose after shipments were found to contain chemical contaminants, pests, and insects.

  • The U.S. dollar is slightly lower today following a sharp decline yesterday. Despite the currency drop, Brazilian soybeans remain significantly cheaper than U.S. prices, which could slow the rally, particularly with expectations of improved harvest conditions in Brazil in the coming weeks.

  • Deral reports that the soybean harvest in Brazil’s state of Paraná is 8% complete, while Mato Grosso’s harvest is 2% finished, compared to 13% at this time last year. The delay is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions.

  • Wheat prices are higher at midday, bolstered by a weaker dollar, continued cold temperatures, and several global demand tenders.

  • Concerns about winter kill persist for exposed winter wheat due to a lack of snow cover and the ongoing cold snap across the U.S.

  • Russian wheat delivery for the first part of February fell to $234 pet MT, down $3 from the previous week, reported by the IKAR consultancy.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-22 Opening Update: Grains Steady to Lower After Strong Start to the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 488.25 -1.75
JUL ’25 498.75 -2.25
DEC ’25 458.5 -1.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1062.75 -4.5
JUL ’25 1082 -5.25
NOV ’25 1046.75 -3

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 558.5 -0.25
JUL ’25 581.25 -0.5
JUL ’26 637 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 575.5 0
JUL ’25 594.5 0
JUL ’26 636.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 605 0.5
JUL ’25 625.5 -0.25
SEP ’25 636.5 0.25

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6114.25 30

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 75.98 0.15

Gold

APR ’25 2792 6.4

  • Corn is slightly lower to start Wednesday after strong buying interest pushed prices above their recent highs yesterday. 

  • Warmer and drier conditions in Brazil’s major crop producing regions of the north will be welcome over the coming weeks. Wet weather recently has delayed soybean harvest and the second crop corn planting that follows. 

  • Weekly export inspections for corn were strong last week coming in at 60.7 mb, brining total inspections 31% ahead of last year. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a strong 30+ cent rally yesterday drove March soybean futures to their highest level since early October. 

  • The slow start to soybean harvest in Brazil and the lack of more tariffs with the new Trump administration may lead to China buying more US soybeans in the short term. 

  • If recent weather model runs hold true, a pattern change for Argentina and southern Brazil to more frequent moisture and less intense heat could be underway as the calendar flips over to February. 

  • Wheat is near unchanged to slightly lower to start Wednesday after posting strong double-digit gains on Tuesday. 

  • A falling US dollar index and freeze loss potential in Russia and the US Plains rallied wheat futures yesterday as KC futures posted their strongest daily gain since May of 2024. 

  • With managed money funds heavily net short the wheat complex some profit taking and position squaring given the recent rallies in both corn and soybeans is likely.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-21 End of Day: Soybeans Lead Grains Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong weekly export inspections helped to push corn higher to start the week as July futures edged over the $5 level.

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking out last week’s high. South American weather worries drove soybean meal futures over 4.6% higher while soybean oil closed slightly higher.

  • A sharp drop in the US Dollar Index and the ongoing cold snap with minimal snow cover for the Plains sent wheat futures sharply higher to start the week.

  • To see the one-week GFS precipitation forecast for South America and the 8–14 day US temperature outlook both courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Weekly Close: The March ’25 contract posted a strong weekly close, finishing above the May 2024 high of 475.50. This marks the highest close since the week of December 4, 2023.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has nearly returned to the price range of 487 to 508 (vs. December ’24), where Grain Market Insider recommended the first 2024 corn crop sales during the summer of 2023 and spring of 2024.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistanceremains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices ended the trading day higher, driven by growing concerns over the heat and dry weather in South America and tariff delays.

  • Recent rainfall in Argentina’s primary growing region has not alleviated concerns about the ongoing drought, which threatens to harm yields. After nearly a month-long drought and recent heatwaves in the area, some analysts argue that the rain arrived too late to reverse the damage caused by the drought. Last week, the 24/25 corn crop was cut to 48 mmt (1.89 bb) by the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange, due to adverse weather conditions, this is down from the 50 mmt it previously estimated.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 61 mb, surpassing the 51 mb needed to meet the USDA’s forecast of 2.450 bb. Year-to-date, corn exports stand at 758 mb, up 31% from the same period last year. The top destinations were Japan with 18 mb, Mexico with 13 mb, and South Korea with 11 mb.

  • AgRural estimates that Brazil’s second corn crop is less than 1% planted, a significant decrease from the 5% average for this time of year.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 38,882 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net long 292,228 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract entered the 1060–1080 target range again on Tuesday (1/21), reaching an intraday high of 1068.

  • From the Lows: At Tuesday’s close of 1067.25, the contract stood over one dollar above its December low of 947.00, marking a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking out the recent high from the 14th in the March contract. The dollar was significantly lower which supported all of the grains today, but rain that is delaying the Brazilian harvest was supportive as well. Soybean meal led the complex higher with a gain of $13.80 in March, while bean oil was only slightly higher.

  • Weather in South America remains mixed: Argentina saw weekend rain, while persistent rainfall in Brazil is delaying the harvest and raising potential quality concerns.

  • With President Trump officially in office, trade was likely expecting tariffs to be ordered yesterday along with the slew of executive orders. While that was not completed yesterday, it is expected to go into effect on February 1 which could pressure markets.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 63,445 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 34,833 contracts. Funds are nowhere near record long and have the ability to continue buying if weather remains a concern.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 63,445 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net long 34,833 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher, led by Kansas City futures. A cold snap in the central U.S., minimal snow cover, a weaker U.S. dollar, and fund short-covering boosted prices.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 9.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 488 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; exports are estimated at 850 mb for 24/25, which would be up 20% from the year prior.

  • According to Chinese customs data, December wheat imports totaled 150,000 metric tons, down 74.5% year-over-year. Year-to-date imports of 11.18 million metric tons are down 7.6% from last year.

  • Russia exported $87.3 million in wheat to China in 2024, a 2.5x increase from 2023’s $34.7 million. Australia remained the top supplier with $1.08 billion in exports.

  • The new military-run state buyer for Egypt is rumored to have purchased a significant volume of wheat directly from Russia. While this has not yet been confirmed, there is also talk that four Egyptian ships have been sent to Russia for loading, with a combined capacity of 250,000 mt.

2024 Crop:

  • Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.

2026 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,756 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 94,393 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,748 contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 37,606 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.

  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.

  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,087contracts between January 7 – January 14, bringing their total position to a net short 28,298 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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01-21 Midday: Grains Continue to Firm at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 486.5 2.25
JUL ’25 497.5 3.25
DEC ’25 457.25 1.25
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1052 18
JUL ’25 1073.25 18
NOV ’25 1038.75 11
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 555.25 16.5
JUL ’25 575.5 15
JUL ’26 629.25 10.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 566.75 18.25
JUL ’25 584.75 17.5
JUL ’26 615 0.5
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 596.75 13.25
JUL ’25 616.25 12.75
SEP ’25 628 13.5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6064 30.5
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 76.16 -1.23
Gold
APR ’25 2785.6 10.6

  • Corn trends higher at midday on tariff delays and a lower dollar which could help to keep export business positive.

  • CFTC data from Friday showed funds hold their largest net long position in 2 years at just under 300,000 contracts.

  • AgRural has said that safrina corn planting in the central-southern region of Argentina is just 0.3% complete. This compares to 4.91% last year.

  • Soybeans continue to firm at midday on Trump’s decision to delay tariffs and light rainfall in Argentina over the weekend.

  • President Trump has mentioned he will limit used cooking oil imports from China which has given the soy complex a positive boost.

  • AgRural says harvest in the Mato Grosso area is at its slowest pace since the 2010 timeframe, but drier conditions could help to speed things up.

  • The wheat market is higher at midday on extreme cold temperatures across the Plains states and a lower US dollar.

  • IKAR says Russian wheat prices have fallen $3/MT to $234/MT. President Putin has also mentioned he is ready to talk with President Trump about the ongoing war with Ukraine.

  • Interfax reported that Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports have risen since July to 24.19 mmt which is 2 mmt higher than a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-21 Opening Update: Grains Higher Following Long Weekend and President Trump Inauguration

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 486.25 2
JUL ’25 496 1.75
DEC ’25 454.75 -1.25
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1050.25 16.25
JUL ’25 1069.5 14.25
NOV ’25 1034.75 7
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 545 6.25
JUL ’25 565.75 5.25
JUL ’26 622.5 3.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 553.75 5.25
JUL ’25 572 4.75
JUL ’26 615 0.5
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 586.75 3.25
JUL ’25 610.25 6.75
SEP ’25 620.75 6.25
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6055.5 22
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 75.54 -1.85
Gold
APR ’25 2761.2 -13.8

  • Corn is mixed to start the day with gains in the front months while new crop contracts are slightly lower. The Brazilian soybean harvest is behind schedule which would in turn put the safrinha corn sowing behind as well.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its new estimates for the 24/25 corn crop with 6.6 million hectares of corn planted which was below last year’s 7.9m. 95.1% of the crop is reportedly planted.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of January 14. They bought 39,088 contracts which left them with a net long position of 292,434 contracts. Since then, they are estimated to have bought back 22,500 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading sharply higher this morning after President Trump issued 200 executive orders yesterday but did not implement any new tariffs as trade expected. Soybean meal is leading the market higher while soybean oil is slightly lower.

  • Estimates for Brazilian soybean production has been increased by Agroconsult to 172.4 mmt which would be an 11% increase from last season. The issue now is coming from continued rains that are delaying harvest.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 63,445 contracts which left them with a net long position of 34,833 contracts. Funds are nowhere near record long and have the ability to continue buying if weather remains a concern.

  • Wheat is higher to start the day with Chicago wheat leading the way. The fact that new tariffs were not implemented yesterday and that the US dollar is trading lower are both bullish to the wheat market.

  • Cofco, China’s largest state-run crop trader has had to resell two cargoes of imported wheat due to Beijing extending curbs of foreign purchases in order to improve the domestic industry. The Australian wheat was resold to Indonesia and Thailand.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 5,756 contracts leaving them net short 94,393 contracts. They were sellers of 5,748 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 37,606 contracts. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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