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1-29 End of Day: Buying Interest on Weather Worries Drives Grains Higher Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong buying lifted corn futures on Wednesday, with the March contract posting its highest close since May 28 as money flowed into the grain markets.

  • Renewed concerns with South American weather drove soybean prices back near their recent highs. Soybean meal led the gains in soybeans today while soybean oil slipped slightly lower.  

  • Wheat futures surged with double-digit gains across all three classes, supported by strength in corn, soybeans, and Matif wheat.

  • To see the updated 7-day U.S. precipitation forecast as well as the week two South American precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: The March ‘25 contract surged to new highs, closing just within the lower end of the 495 to 515 target range. Given today’s strong finish — just half a cent shy of the session high — Grain Market Insider is holding off on a sales recommendation for now, allowing for the chance at the upper end of the target range.

  • Highest Close: Today’s close marks the highest settlement for front-month corn since October 19, 2023, reinforcing the recent upward momentum.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Opportunity: Today’s close above 465.50 resistance opens the door for the next upside target in the 470-480 range for the December ‘25 contract.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 sits at 453.75, a level to watch for the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential heading into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break above the 479 resistance, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge for existing sales while keeping you positioned for any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying moved into the grain markets on Wednesday, and that supported corn futures’ strong gains on the session. Corn futures contract broke to new nearby highs as money flowed into the grain markets. The March corn contract posted its highest close since May 28.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell 7.6% to 1.015 million barrels/day but remains 2.4% above year-ago levels. The weekly grind used 102.4 mb of corn, slightly below the pace needed for USDA targets.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 850,000 – 1.8 MMT. As U.S. corn is still very competitive in the global export market.  Last week, sales were 1.660 MMT.

  • Corn eased from session highs as President Trump reaffirmed a Feb. 1 deadline for potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada, raising concerns over retaliatory measures from Mexico, the top U.S. corn buyer.

  • Weather forecast for central Brazil look to stay on the wetter side. Additional rainfall may limit soybean harvest pace, which would slow the planting pace of the key second crop Brazil corn. The second crop Brazil corn is the main crop that competes against U.S. bushels on the export market.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Bulls vs. Bears – The Battle at 1060: Soybean bulls and bears continue to slug it out in the March ‘25 contract around the 1060 level. The 1060 – 1080 zone — a key resistance range Grain Market Insider has been watching — remains the battleground. Today’s session ended in a stalemate, with March ‘25 settling at the lower edge of that range at 1060.50.  The big question: Who will win? If the bulls manage to push prices above 1080, the next upside target would be 1150. But if the bears take control, the first downside risk is a retreat toward 1000.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommends initiating 2025 soybean sales today, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50.  Since last Wednesday, November ‘25 has gained approximately 16 cents, yet the March ‘25 / November ‘25 spread has flipped from an 18-cent inversion to a 3-cent carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, with March futures targeting the 200-day moving average at $10.73. Strength came from a sharp rally in soybean meal due to Argentine crop concerns, while soybean oil ended lower.

  • The U.S. export window to China is closing unless President Trump can convince China to agree to Phase 1 purchase obligations. China is on a holiday through most of next week which could cause some delays in negotiations.

  • In Argentina, just 20% of the soybean crop is setting/filling pods, and adequate soil moisture levels have fallen from 81.1% to 54.8 since the beginning of the year. Recent rains are expected to improve conditions.

  • A Brazilian port found 51 cargoes of soybean meal contaminated with sand during inspections. This follows China rejecting multiple soybean shipments over phytosanitary concerns.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market closed sharply higher with double-digit gains across all three classes. Higher corn and soybeans, as well as higher Matif wheat futures both played a part in boosting US wheat. Funds likely covered short positions amid concerns over Russian winterkill.

  • Following Argentina’s export tax cut, its FOB wheat prices are now $11/MT below Russia’s $225/MT offers. Increased Argentine exports could cap upside potential for U.S. wheat.

  • This afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced no change to interest rates, as inflation remains elevated. This was largely in line with expectations, and at the time of writing the US Dollar Index is only slightly higher for the day.

  • According to the European Commission, EU 24/25 soft wheat exports as of January 26 have reached 12.18 mmt since the season began in July. This falls well below the 19.35 mmt shipped for the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina week two forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-29 Midday: Grains Continue Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 496 10.75
JUL ’25 508 9.75
DEC ’25 466.5 5.5
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1058.75 13.75
JUL ’25 1087.25 15
NOV ’25 1063.5 16
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 559 13.75
JUL ’25 583.75 13.5
JUL ’26 636.75 11.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 577.25 16.25
JUL ’25 596 16.25
JUL ’26 622.25 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 608.75 11
JUL ’25 628 10.5
SEP ’25 638 10
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6076.25 -20.75
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 73.11 -0.66
Gold
APR ’25 2797.8 3.2

  • Corn prices remain higher at midday, with some of the strength attributed to delayed soybean harvests in Brazil. These delays are expected to push at least 30% of the safrinha corn planting beyond its optimal window.

  • Dr. Cordonnier noted that soybean maturity in Mato Grosso is at least two weeks behind schedule, leading to delays in corn planting. This is particularly significant because it could push corn pollination into the dry season.

  • Corn prices are trending higher, but upcoming tariffs could quickly shift the outlook. President Trump continues to plan a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada starting February 1st, which could impact the market.

  • Ethanol average daily production for the week ending January 24th averaged 1.015 million barrels, down 7.6% from the previous week but up 2.4% compared to the same week last year. The decline in production was anticipated due to delays caused by cold weather in some areas.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, supported by ongoing poor weather in Argentina and a slow harvest in Brazil. Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are all seeing gains.

  • The extended forecast for Argentina shows some potential rainfall in the next 10-15 days, but in the meantime, conditions remain less than ideal, with crops under stress.

  • The U.S. export window to China is closing unless President Trump can convince China to agree to Phase 1 purchase obligations. China is on a holiday through most of next week causing some delays in negotiations.

  • Wheat prices are higher at midday as supplies from the Black Sea and Ukraine tighten due to dry weather conditions.

  • The wheat market found some support as the recent cold snap in the central U.S. is believed to have caused some winterkill damage to the winter wheat crop.

  • Upside potential in the wheat market is likely to be limited by strong export competition and a stronger dollar.

  • Russia is lacking snow cover due to recent above-average temperatures, and any upcoming cold spells could lead to significant winterkill in the region. The Russian Ag Ministry also reported that 82% of the winter wheat crop is in good condition, but grain exports are expected to decline to 57 mt, down from 72 mt last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-29 Opening Update: Grains Add To Yesterday’s Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 490.75 5.5
JUL ’25 503.5 5.25
DEC ’25 464.25 3.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1052.75 7.75
JUL ’25 1081.25 9
NOV ’25 1054.25 6.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 549 3.75
JUL ’25 574 3.75
JUL ’26 628 3

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 567 6
JUL ’25 586.25 6.5
JUL ’26 622.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 603.25 5.5
JUL ’25 623.75 6.25
SEP ’25 633.25 5.25

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6098 1

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 73.33 -0.44

Gold

APR ’25 2793.7 -0.9

  • Corn is leading the grain markets higher this morning, with May and July contracts pushing back above the $5.00 mark. Overnight highs were last posted at $5.02½ for May and $5.04¼ for July.

  • In Brazil, safrinha corn planting is falling behind schedule, with only 1% planted compared to the 10% average. Forecasts call for rain next week, further tightening the planting window. Some Brazilian farmers are considering switching from corn to sorghum as a result.

  • Meanwhile, a 3% drop in the U.S. dollar—from its mid-January high of 110 to this Monday’s low of 106.775—has likely added support to the market. Since the dollar peaked, the March ’25 contract has gained 15 cents.

  • Soybean futures are trading higher this morning, up six to nine cents at their respective overnight highs.

  • Harvest delays in Brazil are firming export prices, with yield expectations mixed. Central Brazil is on track for near-record yields, but southern Brazil’s yields could drop 20% compared to last year.

  • Export demand has softened, with last week’s Gulf soybean loadings hitting their lowest level since mid-September. The Lunar New Year holiday in China and expectations for cheaper Brazilian supplies in the coming weeks may be contributing to the slowdown.

  • Wheat futures are building on yesterday’s gains, trading six to eight cents higher overnight, following strong gains of eight to twelve cents in the previous session.

  • Global crop concerns continue to rise as Western Europe is too wet and the Black Sea and Ukraine too dry. France’s wet weather is hurting crop ratings and dimming production prospects. Russia’s wheat crop could fall below 85 MMT.

  • Jordan has issued a tender to purchase 120,000 MT of milling wheat from optional origins.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-28 End of Day: Wheat Leads the Grain Complex Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Continued strong demand for U.S. corn pushed prices higher Tuesday, erasing Monday’s losses.

  • Soybeans finished mixed, with March futures unchanged and deferred contracts higher. The bean products corrected slightly after yesterday’s sell-off, with soybean meal and oil closing modestly higher.

  • Wheat futures added double digits on Tuesday, backed by stronger European wheat futures and weather worries in the Black Sea region.

  • To see the updated 5-day GFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 8–14-day US temperature and precipitation outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Eyeing the 495 to 515 range for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: Following two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract managed a modest two-cent uptick last week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, key resistance lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: Last week, the March ’25 contract revisited the 487–508 range—where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop during summer 2023 and spring 2024. So far, four sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you haven’t acted on all four yet, now is a great time to catch up. Prices rebounded to a high last week of 494.50 vs March ‘25, and despite weakness in the last two trading days, the market remains over 100 cents higher than the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance is now pegged at last week’s high of 465.50. On Thursday, the December ’25 contract managed to break above the October 2024 high of 459.75, but the breakout proved short-lived, with prices closing back below 459.75 today.

  • Downside Risk: A confirmed close above last week’s high of 465.50 would validate the breakout over 459.75. However, failure to sustain momentum above this level increases the likelihood of a false breakout. In that scenario, the market risks returning to range-bound trading, with support at the lower end of the range near 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract succeeds in rallying above 465.50, a test of the next major resistance area of 480 should be an easy task. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to underpin the market. However, higher prices could incentivize increased U.S. planted acreage for the 2025 crop, potentially adding headwinds.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers returned to the corn market on Tuesday as buying strength across the grain markets helped push corn prices moderately higher. The strong demand tone continues to help support the old crop side of the market.

  • The USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 MT (5.2 mb) of U.S. corn to South Korea for the current marketing year, marking the fourth consecutive day of announced export sales.

  • Corn prices eased from session highs after President Trump reiterated a February 1 deadline for potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Concerns over counter-tariffs linger as Mexico remains the largest buyer of U.S. corn.

  • Afternoon forecasts show the potential for rain fall for central Brazil. Additional rainfall may limit soybean harvest pace, which would slow the planting pace of the key second crop Brazil corn. The second crop Brazil corn is the main crop that competes against U.S. bushels on the export market.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Sales Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract pushed further into the 1060–1080 target range last week, reaching an intraweek high of 1073.50. However, the gains proved short-lived, with the contract closing below the January 14th high of 1064. Out of three trading days spent in the 1060–1080 range, two ended with bearish reversals, closing below 1060. This highlights the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a key resistance area, which factored prominently into last week’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: Despite recent softening, the March ’25 contract is still up roughly one dollar from its December low of 947.00. This remains a solid rally and a valuable opportunity to act if you haven’t already.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front month March unchanged but the deferred contracts higher. Futures were likely correcting yesterday’s sell-off slightly as little has changed fundamentally. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day slightly higher.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly the slowest since the 20/21 harvest. Parana has been leading the country in progress, but Mato Grosso and other states are still delayed although there have been reductions in rainfall projections.

  • In Argentina, just 20% of the soybean crop is setting/filling pods, and adequate soil moisture levels have fallen from 81.1% to 54.8 since the beginning of the year. Recent rains are expected to improve conditions.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 729k tons which compared to 979k last week and 913k the previous year. The majority of the soybeans are headed to China followed by Turkey.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat made modest gains in all three classes today, despite the move higher for the US Dollar. Support came from a rebound in Paris milling wheat futures, as well as talk that warm weather in the Black Sea region could cause wheat to come out of dormancy too soon.

  • The Russian Grain Union projects 2024/25 grain exports may fall below 50 MMT due to weather issues and reduced production, with wheat accounting for 41–42 MMT. SovEcon estimates January wheat exports at 2.1 MMT, the lowest since 2017.

  • Secex data shows Brazil’s daily average wheat imports for January 2025 at 34.4K MT, up 23.3% year-over-year. Total imports through January 20 reached 412.8K MT, compared to 614K MT for all of January 2024.

  • The US ag attaché to Argentina is estimating their wheat crop at 18.1 mmt, which is above the USDA’s guess of 17.5 mmt. Additionally, Argentina’s wheat export volume may increase, as their government’s recently announced export tax reduction began today.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

South America 5-day GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation forecast, in millimeters, courtesy of NOAA.

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1-28 Midday: Grains Remain Firm at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 487.5 5.5
JUL ’25 499.5 5.75
DEC ’25 462 3.75
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1046 1
JUL ’25 1073.25 3
NOV ’25 1049.25 6
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 546.5 11
JUL ’25 571 9.5
JUL ’26 625.25 7
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 560.75 7.5
JUL ’25 579.75 7.5
JUL ’26 616.5 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 593.25 7.5
JUL ’25 615 7.25
SEP ’25 627 8
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6077 30.25
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 73.3 0.13
Gold
APR ’25 2789.8 23.6

  • Corn remains firm at midday on flow over support from yesterday’s export inspections as well as South Korea purchasing 132,000 mt of US corn this morning.

  • President Trump is being pressured to delay the gasoline shift policy which would boost ethanol consumption due to concerns over infrastructure being installed in time.

  • The USDA Attache estimates Argentina’s corn ending stocks at 4.245 mmt which would be 4.1% higher than the USDA’s estimate of 2.794 mmt.

  • South Africa forecasts their corn planted area will reach 2.65 million hectares which is just above 2024’s planted area of 2.64 million hectares.

  • Soybean prices are following the rest of the grain market higher at midday while receiving additional support from slow harvest pace in South America.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest continues at its slowest pace since the 20/21 season. AgRural reported harvest is just 3.9% complete.

  • Argentina rolled out a new tax structure for farmers in hopes to pick up selling of on farm stored soybeans. Argentine farmers can sell up to 5 mmt of soybeans in US dollars and then liquidate the foreign currency within 15 days of the sale to capture the tax cut.  

  • Wheat is higher at midday on potential rainfall moving East instead of impacting the key growing areas.

  • SovEcon’s Russian wheat export estimate for January is 2.1 mmt which would be the lowest January export total since 2017.

  • The USDA Attache has raised Argentina’s wheat ending stocks estimate to 4.093 mmt. This compares to the USDA’s 3.497 mmt estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-28 Opening Update: Grains Rebound Higher After Yesterday’s Sell-off

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 484 2
JUL ’25 495.5 1.75
DEC ’25 458.5 0.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1045.75 0.75
JUL ’25 1071.75 1.5
NOV ’25 1045 1.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 539.25 3.75
JUL ’25 563.5 2
JUL ’26 618.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 554.5 1.25
JUL ’25 573.75 1.5
JUL ’26 616.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 588.5 2.75
JUL ’25 610.5 2.75
SEP ’25 619 0

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6047.75 1

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 73.74 0.57

Gold

APR ’25 2775.3 9.1

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning with the March contract taking back half of yesterday’s losses. Yesterday, traders were spooked by the tiff with Colombia and potential new tariffs as well as lower equities in the tech sector that weighed on nearly all commodities.

  • As of January 23, the US inspected 1.247m tons of corn for export which compared to 1.542k the previous week and 926k a year ago. The majority of the corn is headed for Japan followed by Mexico.

  • President Trump is reportedly being pressed to delay a gasoline policy change that is meant to boost ethanol sales due to concerns that the necessary fueling infrastructure would be installed in time. 

  • Soybean futures are trading higher to start the day, but are still 28 cents off last week’s high as farmer selling and fund profit taking bring prices lower. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher, but bean oil is posting the larger gains.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly the slowest since the 20/21 harvest. Parana has been leading the country in progress, but Mato Grosso and other states are still delayed although there have been reductions in rainfall.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 729k tons which compared to 979k last week and 913k the previous year. The majority of the soybeans are headed to China followed by Turkey.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as the grain complex recovers slightly in general from yesterday’s outside market sell-off. Prices remain near contract lows despite some fundamental bullishness.

  • Frigid temperatures over the past week have reportedly killed up to 15% of the winter wheat crop in parts of the US Plains and Midwest according to the Commodity Weather Group. The lack of snow coverage made winter wheat vulnerable to winter kill.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 485k tons of wheat inspected for export as of January 23 which compared to 262k tons last week and 284k the previous year. The wheat is primarily headed to Japan followed by South Korea.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-27 End of Day: Grains Start the Week Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended lower on Monday following other grains lower despite a daily flash sale of corn to Mexico.

  • Soybeans finished lower Monday after failing at upside resistance last week. Better than expected rains for Argentina over the weekend pressured the entire bean complex with soybean meal posting the largest losses.

  • Wheat futures started the week off on the wrong foot following losses in corn and soybeans. Monday appeared to be a “risk-off” day across all markets as stocks futures fell hard along with most commodities.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South America 7-day precipitation forecasts as well as the 30-day percent of normal precipitation map for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Eyeing the 495 to 515 range for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: Following two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract managed a modest two-cent uptick last week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, key resistance lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: Last week, the March ’25 contract revisited the 487–508 range—where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop during summer 2023 and spring 2024. So far, four sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you haven’t acted on all four yet, now is a great time to catch up. Prices rebounded to a high last week of 494.50 vs March ‘25, and despite weakness in the last two trading days, the market remains over 100 cents higher than the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance is now pegged at last week’s high of 465.50. On Thursday, the December ’25 contract managed to break above the October 2024 high of 459.75, but the breakout proved short-lived, with prices closing back below 459.75 today.

  • Downside Risk: A confirmed close above last week’s high of 465.50 would validate the breakout over 459.75. However, failure to sustain momentum above this level increases the likelihood of a false breakout. In that scenario, the market risks returning to range-bound trading, with support at the lower end of the range near 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract succeeds in rallying above 465.50, a test of the next major resistance area of 480 should be an easy task. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to underpin the market. However, higher prices could incentivize increased U.S. planted acreage for the 2025 crop, potentially adding headwinds.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended Monday lower, pressured by weakness in other grains. The March contract closed 12 cents below its recent high, marking its second consecutive session of losses as upward momentum stalled.

  • Better-than-expected weekend rains in Argentina weighed on corn and soybean markets. Forecasts for February also look favorable for crop production in areas previously stressed by heat and dryness.

  • Demand remains robust, with the USDA reporting a flash sale of 139,000 MT (5.5 mb) of corn to Mexico for the current marketing year. Weekly export inspections reached 1.247 MMT (49.1 mb), 31% ahead of last year and trending above USDA export targets.

  • The key second corn crop planting pace in Brazil is behind expectations as approximately 2.2% of the crop was planted as of last week. Though still early, a later planting window could push the crop’s finishing point past a key time window closer to maturity and possibly limit production.

  • Managed hedge funds continue to grow their long position in the corn market, adding nearly 20,000 net long contracts to a total position of 311,678 net long contracts. This is the fourth most bullish position ever held for this date.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 19,450 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net long 311,678 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Sales Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract pushed further into the 1060–1080 target range last week, reaching an intraweek high of 1073.50. However, the gains proved short-lived, with the contract closing below the January 14th high of 1064. Out of three trading days spent in the 1060–1080 range, two ended with bearish reversals, closing below 1060. This highlights the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a key resistance area, which factored prominently into last week’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: Despite recent softening, the March ’25 contract is still up roughly one dollar from its December low of 947.00. This remains a solid rally and a valuable opportunity to act if you haven’t already.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive session after March futures failed to hold above the 200-day moving average last week. Long liquidation by funds may have followed a weekend of uncertainty, with President Trump briefly imposing and rescinding tariffs on Colombia, creating a bearish sentiment for grains.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with meal picking up the larger losses. Rains fell over Argentina this weekend, which was sorely needed, but soybean oil may be under pressure from the 45z tax credits that may not be implemented.

  • While Argentina has received needed rain, Brazil continues to rain through what should be the start of harvest. The country is reportedly just 4% completed with harvest compared to the average of 13% for this time of year. Rain is forecast to continue over the next 15 days.

  • Friday’s CFTC saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 5,497 contracts as of January 21. This left them with a net long position of 40,330 contracts. Since that day, they are estimated to have sold approximately 2,000 contracts.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,497 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a netlong40,330 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses alongside the broader grain complex as markets turned risk-averse. Weakness was tied to a sharp selloff in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down over 700 points. The drop followed news of Chinese AI company DeepSeek releasing a cheaper, more efficient model, raising concerns about the valuation of U.S. AI firms.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 17.8 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 season total to 506 million bushels, up 25% year-over-year. Inspections remain ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s export estimate of 850 million bushels, which is 20% higher than last year.

  • The Commodity Weather Group estimates up to 15% of the U.S. winter wheat crop may have been killed by recent sub-freezing temperatures. Areas with little to no snow cover were hit hardest, with 65% of HRW and 35% of SRW regions reportedly affected.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has indicated that their country intends to plant 11.1 million hectares of grain for 2025, which is in line with last year. Of that total, winter grains (which will consist mostly of wheat) are expected to reach 5.2 million hectares.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,601 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 91,792 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,475 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 35,131 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,134 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 27,164 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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1-27 Midday: Grains Red Monday Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 478.75 -7.75
JUL ’25 490.25 -7.25
DEC ’25 454.5 -6.5
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1043.5 -12.25
JUL ’25 1068.5 -11
NOV ’25 1039.5 -9.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 533 -11
JUL ’25 559.5 -10.5
JUL ’26 625.25 0
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 550 -9.5
JUL ’25 569.5 -9
JUL ’26 621.25 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 587.25 -8
JUL ’25 608.5 -7.75
SEP ’25 619.5 -7.25
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6026.75 -106.5
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 73.3 -1.36
Gold
APR ’25 2770.5 -36.1

  • Corn futures are under pressure at midday following the weekend tariff threats regarding Colombia, the third largest importer of U.S. corn.

  • Potential 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico are expected to go in place this Saturday February 1. Canada is the largest importer of U.S. ethanol while Mexico is the largest importer of U.S. corn.

  • Crude oil futures are lower at midday and back below the $75 mark. This morning’s weakness comes after shedding over $2.70 cents per barrel last week. Weaker crude oil is likely weighing on the entire commodity complex.

  • Soybean futures are lower at midday Monday as traders continue to digest Argentina’s export tax reduction announcement from late last week.

  • Spotty rainfall over the weekend in Argentina will be followed by another chance for showers early this week before warmer temperatures and a drier pattern set in as the calendar flips to February.

  • A drier weather window allowing for soybean harvest in northern Brazil may close late this week into early next week as a wetter pattern re-establishes itself. This could add quality issues, some of which have already been reported.

  • China starts their Lunar New Year holiday this week which will last for 10 days. Historically soybean sales to China during this holiday period are little to none.

  • Wheat markets are following corn and soybean markets lower at midday.

  • Moisture in both snow and rainfall form are forecast to fall over a significant portion of U.S. winter wheat producing regions in the plains over the next seven days. This will help to improve soil moisture conditions as we head towards spring green up.

  • The Black Sea region will remain drier over the next 10-days along with warmer than normal temperatures before trending colder next week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-27 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 481.75 -4.75
JUL ’25 493 -4.5
DEC ’25 457.75 -3.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1048 -7.75
JUL ’25 1071.75 -7.75
NOV ’25 1040.5 -8.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 540.5 -3.5
JUL ’25 566.25 -3.75
JUL ’26 625.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 556.5 -3
JUL ’25 576 -2.5
JUL ’26 621.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 594 -1.25
JUL ’25 615 -1.25
SEP ’25 623.25 -3.5

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5988.75 -144.5

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 74.07 -0.59

Gold

APR ’25 2796.2 -10.4

  • Corn futures are trading lower this morning with the March contract now trading below the 21-day moving average for the first time since the WASDE report was released on the 10th. The move comes despite a decline in the dollar index.

  • Over the weekend, Colombia blocked an incoming deportation flight from the US prompting President Trump to impose a 25% tariff against the country along with sanctions, but as of this morning, that has been put on hold after Colombia agreed to make a deal. The uncertainty has pressured commodities.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn by 19,244 contracts as of January 21 which left them with a net long position of 311,768 contracts.

  • Soybean futures are trading lower this morning following the news of potential Colombian tariffs, and the March contract is now 30 cents off last week’s high. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.

  • President Trump is eyeing February 1 to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The commodities market is bracing for a rollercoaster ride as headlines flip between optimism and tension on the tariff front.

  • Friday’s CFTC saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 5,497 contracts as of January 21. This left them with a net long position of 40,330 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. March Chicago wheat is now just 13 cents off its contract lows as exports demand remains sluggish.

  • Frigid temperatures over the past week have reportedly killed up to 15% of the winter wheat crop in parts of the US Plains and Midwest according to the Commodity Weather Group. The lack of snow coverage made winter wheat vulnerable to winter kill.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat as of January 21 leaving them net short 91,792 contracts. They bought 2,475 contracts of KC wheat leaving them net short 35,131 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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01-24 End of Day: Lower Export Taxes for Argentina Pressure Grains Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strong export sales were overpowered by fund profit taking as corn futures slipped lower to end the week.

  • Argentina’s announcement of lower export taxes along with an improved weather outlook for much of South America pressured soybean futures on Friday.

  • Disappointing export sales and weakness in corn and soybean futures pressured wheat to end the week.

  • To see the one-week GFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the January precipitation ranks by climate district for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Target Range: 495 to 515 for the March ’25 contract.

  • Modest Weekly Gain: After two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract eked out a modest two-cent increase this week, closing slightly higher overall.

  • Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, the next resistance range lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • March ’25 Contract Levels: The March ’25 contract has returned to the 487–508 price range, where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop in summer 2023 and spring 2024. To date, four total sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you have not yet made all four sales, now is an excellent time to catch up, with prices rebounding to these recommended levels and the market up over 100 cents from the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop: 

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.

  • First Resistance: Resistance remains at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.

  • Downside Risk: Failure to rally over 459.75 poses the risk of range-bound trading, with the bottom end of the range at 428.00.

  • Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract eventually succeeds in rallying above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.

  • Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.

  • Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 4–6 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market traded lower to end the week despite another strong week of export sales. End of week profit taking and a cut of export taxes in Argentina weighed on the market.

  • The Argentina government announced an export tax cut on agriculture commodities to help support producers in the South American country. Corn export taxes will be reduced from 12% to 9.5% until the end of June. This cut lowers export prices, and stimulates additional producer selling of grains, providing competition for U.S. export business.

  • For the week ending January 16, corn export sales reached 1.661 MMT (65.4 mb), coming in at the high end of expectations with South Korea as the primary buyer. Total sales are 29% above last year and running ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA target.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn crop projection for this year by 1 MMT this week, citing impacts from hot and dry weather which are limiting crop potential.

  • South American weather will stay a driver in the grain markets going into next week’s trade. Forecasts still look improved for Argentina and Southern Brazil, but recent weather has still been less than ideal. Sunday night trade will likely be influenced by the weekend weather.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract advanced further into the 1060–1080 target range, hitting an intraday high of 1073.50 today. However, the early gains couldn’t hold, and March closed below the 1/14 high of 1064. Out of the three trading days within this range, two have shown bearish reversals, closing back under 1060. This reinforces the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a significant resistance area, which played a key role in today’s sales recommendation.

  • From the Lows: The March ‘25 contract remains up over one dollar from its December low of 947.00, marking this as a solid rally worth capitalizing on.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have covered a significant number of short positions and are now net-long soybeans, further supporting the idea that now is an ideal time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower giving back all of yesterday’s gains in the March contract. Yesterday, prices failed at resistance at the 200-day moving average near $10.75. Soybean meal led the way lower as Argentine exports are expected to increase, while soybean oil was slightly higher.

  • Yesterday evening, the Argentine government announced that it would cut export taxes on all grains in order to bolster the domestic farming economy. Traders likely see Argentina exports increasing due to this, but weather has improved in the country as well.

  • Today’s export sales report was within trade expectations at 54.8 million bushels for 24/25 and 33.1 tb for 25/26. This was up noticeably from the previous week and the 4-week average. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 38.0 mb were above the 20.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • For the week, March soybeans gained 21-3/4 cents while November gained 21 cents. March soybean meal gained $7.70 while March soybean oil lost 47 cents.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat prices fell due to weak corn and soybean markets, poor export sales, and a decline in Paris milling wheat futures.

  • Overnight Argentina cut wheat export tax to 9.5% from 12% for the next five months. It was also reported late this week that Russia reduced its wheat tax to 4,430 Rubles/mt, down 5.7%. Historically, reduced export taxes boost farmer selling.

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 6.1 mb of wheat exports sales for 24/25, and an increase of 1.9 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 7.4 mb also fell below the 18.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 850 mb. Wheat sales commitments stand at 650 mb, up 7% from last year.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, since the season began on July 1 Ukraine’s total grain exports have reached 24.7 mmt, which is up 11% year over year. Wheat shipments specifically have hit 10.6 mmt, which is up 21% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.

  • Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather