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02-04 Opening Update: Corn Mixed, Soybeans and Wheat Lower to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 489.25 0.5
JUL ’25 502 -1.5
DEC ’25 463.75 -1.5

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1057.25 -1
JUL ’25 1084.5 -2.5
NOV ’25 1059.75 -3.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 562.5 -4.25
JUL ’25 585.75 -4.5
JUL ’26 640.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 579 -6.75
JUL ’25 597.75 -6.75
JUL ’26 645.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 608 -8.5
JUL ’25 626.5 -7.5
SEP ’25 637 -6.5

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6020.5 -1.75

Crude Oil

APR ’25 71.14 -1.25

Gold

APR ’25 2845.8 -11.3

  • Corn is mixed this morning with the March contract slightly higher while the deferred months are lower. Yesterday’s trad was very volatile with an initial gap lower which was followed by a rally that filled all gaps on the chart after tariffs were pushed off for 30 days with Mexico.

  • Yesterday, after Mexico made concessions which resulted in the tariff implementation date being pushed back, the same thing happened with Canada in a phone call at 2pm. Canada agreed to heighten border security, and the tariffs on Canadian goods was pushed back for another 30 days.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers which brought them to a net long position of 350,721 contracts, but since then, they are estimated to be long closer to 374,270 contracts which is nearing record long territory.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning as yesterday, tariffs for Canada and Mexico were held off, but China retaliated by placing tariffs on some US goods. This leads to concerns over export demand for soybeans. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • Yesterday, the US inspected 1,013k tons of soybeans for export. This compared to 738k tons the previous week and 1,751k tons a year ago at this time.

  • Brazil’s 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 7.6% complete as of January 31 which compares to a pace of 15.7% the previous year and the 5-year average of 11.8% at this time.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after stronger but volatile trade yesterday. Tariffs against Canada would have been supportive to wheat due to the quantity of wheat imports from the country, but now those tariffs are postponed.

  • SovEcon has cut its estimate of Russian wheat export outlook as a result of limited supplies and low profitability for shipments abroad. Their export outlook is now at 42.8 mmt which is 2% lower than the previous estimate.

  • US winter wheat crop conditions were updated yesterday and saw the good to excellent rating in Kansas increasing to 50% from 47% the previous week. Oklahoma on the other hand fell by 5% to 40%, and conditions in Texas fell by 5% to 37%.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-03 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans End Higher in Volatile Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures reversed from overnight lows today following the announcement that tariffs between the U.S. and Mexico would be delayed for 30 days.

  • Beans: Rallied sharply on Monday on strong export inspections as futures closed back near recent upside resistance at the 200-day moving average.

  • Wheat: Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain markets on Monday, posting minimal gains as the U.S. Dollar Index notched its fifth consecutive session higher.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider is continuing to target towards the top end of the 495 – 515 range vs March ‘25 to recommend making the next sale.

  • Down Week: March ‘25 fell a net of 4-½ cents last week and posted its first down week since the week of December 30th.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Grain Market Insider previously recommended making a couple of sales for the 2025 crop in mid-January. For now, the advice is to hold steady as we watch for a move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 2–4 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn ended the day higher after very volatile trade which saw prices sharply lower overnight before rallying following breaking news that the tariffs on Mexico would be postponed for 30 days. March corn filled both the gap left from last night’s trade along with the gap left on Friday at $4.90.

  • Weekly inspections reached 49.3 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 total to 856 million bushels, which is 33% ahead of last year. Inspections are outpacing the USDA’s estimated export pace of 2.450 billion bushels, which would reflect a 7% year-over-year increase.

  • Argentina is forecasted to receive improved rainfall between Tuesday and Thursday, with as much as four inches possible over the next 10 days. This contributed to early session weakness in the corn market.

  • Brazil has experienced heavy rains, delaying safrinha crop planting. As of last week, only 6% of the crop was planted, compared to 29% last year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of January 28 by 39,043 contracts which increased their net long position to 350,721 contracts. Funds are now just 50,000 contracts shy from a record large net long position, and it may not take much bearish news to incentivize profit taking.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 39,043 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net long 350,721 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop last week.

  • Down Week: Last week, the March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales last week on Wednesday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50, and as the spread between the March ‘25 and November ‘25 contracts flipped from an inversion to a carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a good time to start locking in new crop sales. Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a volatile session driven by shifting tariff news. Early in the session, soybean meal traded lower while soybean oil found support from tariffs on Canadian oil. However, once the Mexico tariffs were postponed, soybean meal rebounded, contributing to the broader soybean rally.

  • Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 37.2 million bushels for the week ending January 30. Year-to-date, 2024/25 inspections have reached 1.252 billion bushels, up 16% from last year. The USDA projects soybean exports for 2024/25 to rise 8% from the previous year.

  • Brazil’s 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 7.6% complete as of January 31 which compares to a pace of 15.7% the previous year and the 5-year average of 11.8% at this time. Rainfall has continued to fall throughout the country which could delay harvest further.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of soybeans as of January 28, adding 16,166 contracts and increasing their net long position to 56,496 contracts.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 16,166 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net long 56,496 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes today. The suspension of Mexico tariffs for one month provided a boost to grain markets after early session weakness. Additional support came from a retreat in the U.S. dollar off-session highs and strength in Matif wheat futures, where the May contract broke above resistance at the 200-day moving average.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 9.3 mb bring the 24/25 inspections total to 515 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with exports for 24/25 estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $239/mt which is up $2.50 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon reports that Russian grain exports totaled 660,000 mt last week, with wheat accounting for 590,000 mt of that total.

  • Australia’s government estimated the wheat crop at 31.9 mmt in December. However, new analyst estimates suggest that the 24/25 crop could be about 2 mmt larger. In an analyst poll by Reuters, estimates now range between 32 and 35.5 mmt. This increase may be in large part due to yields in Western Australia exceeding expectations.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW suggests that 680-705 is a realistic and reachable target zone. In the last three instances when the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,990 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 110,782 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 650-700 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW supports 650-700 as a realistic and reachable target zone. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,225 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 42,386 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • No Official Target Range: Over the past couple of trading days, the March ‘25 contract has pushed into the previously mentioned potential target range of 610-635. Unless market conditions shift, Grain Market Insider plans to take a more opportunistic approach and aim for a target beyond 635.

  • Short Covering Potential: The Funds’ massive net short position in HRS continues to provide upside potential. The last time they held a short position of this size and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied about 110 cents.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
After months of rangebound trade, spring wheat staged a late-January rally, breaking above its previous range. Overhead resistance lies at the 200-day moving average near 625. Near-term weakness or a close back below 613 would negate the potential breakout and likely see a resumption of rangebound trade.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 28. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,922 contracts between January 21 – January 28, bringing their total position to a net short 23,242 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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2-03 Midday: Tariff Pause with Mexico Rallies Grains at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 488.75 6.75
JUL ’25 503.5 6.75
DEC ’25 465.25 5
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1057.25 15.25
JUL ’25 1085.5 13.25
NOV ’25 1059.25 8.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 572.25 12.75
JUL ’25 594.5 10.25
JUL ’26 643 4.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 589.5 10.25
JUL ’25 607.5 9
JUL ’26 639.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 623.25 7.75
JUL ’25 638.5 6.5
SEP ’25 647.25 5.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6033.25 -34
Crude Oil
APR ’25 72.09 0.11
Gold
APR ’25 2859.2 24.2

  • Corn futures are higher at midday after Mexico’s president announced a one-month pause on tariffs following discussions with President Trump. As part of the agreement, Mexico has committed to increasing border security.

  • Corn export inspections remained strong last week, nearly matching the previous week’s levels. Year-to-date, corn export inspections are running 33% ahead of last year.

  • Managed money funds hold a significant long position in the corn market, with over 350,000 contracts as of last Tuesday. This large position presents a risk, as any signs of technical weakness could trigger rapid fund liquidation.

  • Soybean futures are sharply higher at midday, rallying back to overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average.

  • U.S. soybean export inspections rebounded last week but remain seasonally weak. Year-to-date, soybean export inspections are up 16% compared to last year.

  • Weather outlooks show a drier stretch over the next seven days, which should improve harvest progress in northern and central Brazil. Meanwhile, portions of Argentina are expected to receive beneficial moisture.

  • Wheat futures are following other grains higher at midday after the announcement of the tariff pause with Mexico.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index is higher at midday but well off of its overnight lows. The dollar is working on its fifth day in a row higher.

  • A lack of snow cover in Russia and the U.S. Southern Plains raises concerns over potential winterkill if future cold snaps occur.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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02-03 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower Following Weekend Tariffs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 475 -7
JUL ’25 490 -6.75
DEC ’25 457.5 -2.75

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1036 -6
JUL ’25 1066 -6.25
NOV ’25 1045.75 -5.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 555.25 -4.25
JUL ’25 579.5 -4.75
JUL ’26 638.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 575 -4.25
JUL ’25 595 -3.5
JUL ’26 639.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 615.5 0
JUL ’25 630.75 -1.25
SEP ’25 640.5 -1

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5970.25 -97

Crude Oil

APR ’25 73.55 1.57

Gold

APR ’25 2837 2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning and has gapped lower for a second consecutive day after March futures fell short of the 5-dollar mark last week, and the Trump tariffs went into effect over the weekend.

  • President Trump has put tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico who had previously not had any tariffs on them, and tariffs on China were increased another 10%. The dollar has rallied on this news and it has been bearish for grains but bullish for energies. Trudeau has said Canada would retaliate by placing 25% tariffs on US goods.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of January 28 by 39,043 contracts which increased their net long position to 350,721 contracts.

  • Soybean futures are trading lower to start the day alongside corn and wheat as a response to the tariffs, but it has been interesting that soybean meal is driving the complex lower while soybean oil is benefitting from the tariff news and trading higher.

  • Brazil’s 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 7.6% complete as of January 31 which compares to a pace of 15.7% the previous year and the 5-year average of 11.8% at this time.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of January 28 by 16,166 contracts increasing their net long position to 56,496 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but have not has as significant of a bearish reaction to the tariff news as corn and soybeans have as wheat is already near contract lows.

  • SovEcon has cut its estimate of Russian wheat export outlook as a result of limited supplies and low profitability for shipments abroad. Their export outlook is now at 42.8 mmt which is 2% lower than the previous estimate.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 18,990 contracts leaving them short 110,782 contracts. They were sellers of KC wheat by 7,255 contracts which left them net short 42,386 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-31 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Slide Lower into the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Closed lower Friday as prices corrected from recent highs. The looming implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada added pressure, raising concerns over potential trade disruptions.

  • Beans: Futures remained subdued, with improved weather in Argentina applying downward pressure on prices. However, gains in soybean oil futures provided some support, helping to limit losses.

  • Wheat: Tracked corn futures lower on Friday after an overall strong week of gains.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS total accumulated precipitation for South America as well as the 6–10-day temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider is continuing to target towards the top end of the 495 – 515 range vs March ‘25 to recommend making the next sale.

  • Down Week: March ‘25 fell a net of 4-½ cents this week and posted its first down week since the week of December 30th.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Grain Market Insider previously recommended making a couple of sales for the 2025 crop in mid-January. For now, the advice is to hold steady as we watch for a move toward 479, which could trigger the next sales recommendation.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 contracts sits at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the weak lower as talk of tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China pressured the market. For the week, the march corn contract traded 4 ½ cent lower and posted a reversal on the weekly chart as momentum has faded from the corn market.

  • President Trump is planning to install a round of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China as of February 1. The tariff will be 25% against Mexican and Canadian good, and 10% for Chinese goods. The grain markets are worried about the possible extent of retaliation for the tariffed nations.

  • Argentina forecasts are looking to turn more friend for crop production going into February. February will be a key month for pod and grain fill on this year’s corn and soybean crops.

  • A weak close this week and bearish price action could trigger further technical selling. Managed funds currently hold a near-record net long position in corn, and a loss of buying momentum may prompt additional long liquidation.

  • Despite technical pressures, overall corn demand remains robust. Weekly ethanol production and export demand are outpacing USDA projections. If this trend continues, the USDA may need to tighten ending stock estimates in future reports, which could be supportive of prices.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Down Week: The March ‘25 contract snapped a five-week winning streak, posting its first weekly loss since December 16. It closed the week down nearly 14 cents.

  • Resistance: The March ‘25 contract has yet to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales on Wednesday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50, and as the spread between the March ‘25 and November ‘25 contracts flipped from an inversion to a carry.  With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after mixed trade throughout the session that was partially caused by some miscommunication over President Trump’s tariff plans. Argentinian weather has improved as well which pressured soybeans. Soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Trade has known for weeks that the Trump administration had planned to implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China on February 1, but earlier today, Reuters incorrectly reported that the tariffs would begin on March 1. This cause prices to rally until the White House refuted the claim stating that they would indeed go into effect tomorrow. The tariffs will include Canadian canola oil which was supportive to soybean oil.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina was most likely get rain in February that would put an end to the drought and stop the soybean and corn crops from further deterioration. They expect Argentina to produce 49.6 mmt of soybeans. This news was bearish for soybean meal.

  • For the week, March soybeans lost 13-3/4 cents while November gained 2-1/4. March soybean meal lost $3.70 to $301.10, and March soybean oil gained 0.89 cents to 46.11 cents. The funds are estimated to be long around 50,000 contracts of soybeans.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the day lower, driven partly by concerns over the tariffs set to take effect on Mexico and Canada tomorrow, February 1st, and the continued strength of the U.S. Dollar.

  • Tightening global supplies, particularly in the Black Sea region, are expected to persist, providing underlying support to prices. Additionally, growing drought-like conditions in the U.S. Northern Plains, as indicated by the latest drought monitor, show dryness steadily reappearing in the region, further adding to concerns.

  • Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed harvest is forecasted to rise to 80 MMT in 2025, up from 76 MMT in 2024, driven by higher wheat seedings, according to Reuters. While Ukraine remains a key grain and oilseed producer, production has been significantly impacted by Russia’s 2022 invasion.

  • India’s wheat crop remains a growing concern, and it’s now possible that the country will need to import wheat this year. However, due to the strength of the U.S. Dollar, it’s unlikely they will turn to the U.S., as American wheat will be more expensive compared to other global producers. This, however, will still reduce the overall wheat supply on the market.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
After months of rangebound trade, spring wheat staged a late-January rally, breaking above its previous range. Overhead resistance lies at the 200-day moving average near 625. Near-term weakness or a close back below 613 would negate the potential breakout and likely see a resumption of rangebound trade.

Other Charts / Weather

South America 10-day GEFS Total Accumulated Precipitation, in millimeters, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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1-31 Midday: Corn and Wheat Fall Over Expected Tariffs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 485.25 -5
JUL ’25 500.25 -4
DEC ’25 462.5 -1.75
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1047.75 3.75
JUL ’25 1077.75 3.25
NOV ’25 1057 3.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 561.75 -4.75
JUL ’25 585.75 -4.75
JUL ’26 637.75 -5.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 580.5 -7.75
JUL ’25 600.75 -6.75
JUL ’26 647.25 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 616.25 -4
JUL ’25 633.75 -3.5
SEP ’25 640.75 -5.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6143.5 44.25
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 72.71 -0.02
Gold
APR ’25 2850.4 5.2

  • Corn prices continue to decline midday, driven by growing concerns over tariffs.

  • Argentina’s weather is expected to improve next week, with potential rainfall in the forecast. This could help stabilize crop conditions in some of the drier areas.

  • Despite the forecast the Buenos Aries Exchange lowered Argentine’s corn good/excellent crop conditions to 28% down from 30% last week.

  • President Trump confirmed that a 25% tariff will be imposed on Mexico, the U.S.’s largest corn buyer. In response, Mexico is likely to retaliate, with agricultural products potentially being included in those countermeasures.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, influenced by the upcoming weather in South America and the tariffs set to take effect this weekend. Both soybeans and soybean oil are seeing gains, while soybean meal is trading lower.

  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange lowered Argentina’s good/excellent soybean crop conditions to 20%, down 2% from last week.

  • Heavy rain showers in central Brazil continue to disrupt soybean harvests. As the crop remains in the field longer, concerns about quality are growing, along with transportation challenges.

  • Analyst expected U.S. soybean crush to have reached a record in December at 217.6 mb, ahead of Mondays USDA’s monthly Grain Crushing’s report.

  • Wheat prices continue to decline at midday, pressured by a strong U.S. dollar and escalating tariff concerns.

  • The wheat markets are struggling to gain momentum, hindered by stiff export competition and a strong U.S. dollar, which is making U.S. grain more expensive compared to other global producers.

  • Dry weather conditions are causing tightening Black Sea supply, a situation that is likely to provide underlying support on breaks.

  • India’s wheat crop is now on the radar as temperatures in January have been hotter than expected and more of the warm weather is expected for February, which could lead to crop stress.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-31 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 481.75 -8.5
JUL ’25 496.5 -7.75
DEC ’25 459.5 -4.75

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1037.5 -6.5
JUL ’25 1068.5 -6
NOV ’25 1048.25 -5.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 556.25 -10.25
JUL ’25 580.25 -10.25
JUL ’26 643.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 577.75 -10.5
JUL ’25 597.75 -9.75
JUL ’26 647.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 613.75 -6.5
JUL ’25 631.5 -5.75
SEP ’25 640.75 -5.75

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6129.25 30

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 72.55 -0.18

Gold

APR ’25 2847.2 2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning for what would be the second consecutive day in a row, and also gapped lower in the March contract. Prices came within less than three cents of the $5 mark on Wednesday which is big psychological resistance.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina was most likely get rain in February that would put an end to the drought and stop the corn crop from deterioration. They expect Argentina to produce 49 mmt of corn.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales within the average trade guesses at 1,404k tons, but this was below last week’s sales of 1,670k tons.

  • Soybean futures are also trading lower this morning for what would be the second consecutive day of losses. The dollar is higher which could be adding pressure, but the improved Argentine forecast is the more likely culprit as evidenced by lower soybean meal. Soybean oil is slightly higher.

  • The US December soybean crush is expected to come in at a record high 217.6 million bushels according to analysts at Reuters. If this is realized, it would be up 3.6% from the 210.0 mb crushed in November and 6.6% from last December’s crush.

  • Yesterday’s export sales for soybeans were poor at just 443k tons. This compared to 1,493k tons the previous week. Primary destinations were to China, Spain, and the UK.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s gains. Wheat is very sensitive to moves in the US dollar which is currently trading higher, but there seems to be a bearish tone overall in the grain markets this morning.

  • SovEcon has cut its estimate of Russian wheat export outlook as a result of limited supplies and low profitability for shipments abroad. Their export outlook is now at 42.8 mmt which is 2% lower than the previous estimate.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was slightly better than expected for wheat at 480k tons sold. This compared to 215k last week, and the top buyers were the Philippines, unknown, and South Korea.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-30 End of Day: Wheat Extends Winning Streak, Defying Corn and Soybean Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Prices fell on technical selling and month-end positioning as March futures failed to break the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Dropped sharply after failing to push through resistance, pressured by weak export sales and a steep decline in soybean meal. Soybean oil remained steady.

  • Wheat: Managed to close higher across all three classes, bucking the broader grain market trend, as U.S. and Russian weather concerns continued to support prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the 3-month drought monitor and soybean production maps for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Next Sales Target Range: Yesterday the March ‘25 contract surged to new highs, closing just within the lower end of the 495 to 515 target range. Given that strong finish — just half a cent shy of the session high — Grain Market Insider is holding off on a sales recommendation for now, allowing for the chance at the upper end of the target range.

  • Highest Close: Yesterday’s close marks the highest settlement for front-month corn since October 19, 2023, reinforcing the recent upward momentum.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart stands between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50 — historical levels that could challenge further upside.

2025 Crop: 

  • Opportunity: Yesterday’s close above 465.50 resistance opens the door for the next upside target in the 470-480 range for the December ‘25 contract.

  • Downside Support: Key support for December ‘25 sits at 453.75, a level to watch for the current uptrend.

  • Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential heading into the spring planting window.

  • Buying Call Options: If prices break above the 479 resistance, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge for existing sales while keeping you positioned for any extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers stepped back into the corn market on Thursday as prices suffered moderate losses. Technical selling pressured the market with month-end positioning as March corn failed to push the $5 level.

  • Going into the Thursday session, the corn market was in an overbought condition as hedge funds were holding a near record long position. With selling pressure in the soybean market, corn futures were pressured lower.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 23, new corn sales totaled 1.359 MMT (53.5 mb). This total was toward the upper end of expectations but down 18% from last week.  Total corn commitments remain strong, still trending 28% ahead of last year’s pace.

  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 78% of the crop as good/normal, down 2% from last week, while poor ratings rose to 22% despite recent moisture improvements.

Corn Uptrend Well Supported
Fund buying and strong demand have sustained the corn market’s uptrend since harvest. Initial support is at 475, with additional support near the breakout area around 450. Overhead resistance is now just below 500.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently made a recommendation to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.

  • Bulls vs. Bears – The Battle at 1060: Soybean bulls and bears continue to slug it out in the March ‘25 contract around the 1060 level. The 1060 – 1080 zone — a key resistance range Grain Market Insider has been watching — remains the battleground.  The big question: Who will win? If the bulls manage to push prices above 1080, the next upside target would be 1150. But if the bears take control, the first downside risk is a retreat toward 1000.

  • Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • First Sale Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recommended initiating 2025 soybean sales yesterday, as the November ‘25 contract closed at a fresh high of 1063.50.  Since last Wednesday, November ‘25 has gained approximately 16 cents, yet the March ‘25 / November ‘25 spread has flipped from an 18-cent inversion to a 3-cent carry. With this spread trending bearish and significant resistance looming near 1070, now looks like a strategic opportunity to start locking in new crop sales.  Especially as Grain Market Insider is prepared to quickly recommend reowning this sale with call options if needed.

  • Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower meeting resistance at $10.60 in March yesterday and were unable to break that level again today. Export sales were disappointing today, which pressured prices, and lower soybean meal added to that pressure losing $5.10 in March. Soybean oil was relatively unchanged to slightly higher.

  • The USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending January 23, new soybean sales totaled 438,000 MT (16.1 mb). This was below market expectations and down 71% from last week’s totals.

  • Despite seeing scattered rainfall last week, Argentina crop ratings did not improve.  According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, The Argentina soybean crop was 72% good/normal and 28% poor. The poor category was unchanged from last week.

  • With U.S. tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada set to take effect this weekend, concerns over potential trade retaliations threaten future soybean exports.

Soybeans Face Long-Term Resistance
Front-month soybeans hit resistance at the 200-day moving average in January, a level capping gains for over 18 months. Support is expected near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies at the 200-day and recent highs around 1060. A weekly close above 1060 could pave the way for a test of the 1100 level.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest gains, as there is continued concern about winterkill in both the US and Russia. Also offering support today was a higher close for Matif wheat futures, a slight drop in the US Dollar, and reports that there were new Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian grain storage facilities.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 16.8 mb for 24/25 and 0.9 mb for 25/26, while shipments of 21.6 mb exceeded the 19.5 mb/week pace needed to reach USDA’s 850 mb target. Total commitments for 24/25 are now at 667 mb, up 8% from last year.

  • SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat export forecast from 43.7 mmt to 42.8 mmt, citing upcoming export quotas starting Feb. 15. Meanwhile, Russia’s ag ministry reports 82% of the winter wheat crop is in good to satisfactory condition, though weather remains a risk.

  • February temperatures in India are expected to be above average, potentially reducing wheat yields. If production drops significantly, India — normally a self-sufficient wheat consumer — could become a net importer, a bullish factor for global wheat markets.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: Grain Market Insider maintains a target range of 680–705 for March ’25 for the next sale.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: So far, three sales recommendations have been issued for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two earlier recommendations. If you’re behind on sales, this range presents a solid opportunity for a heavier sale.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding. While actionable targets remain out of reach, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider took a slightly more aggressive strategy for the 2025 crop, capitalizing on market carry during the broader downtrend since the October high. So far, four sales have been made vs. July ’25, averaging approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would boost that average.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

  • Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.

  • Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stays Rangebound
Front-month Chicago wheat remains confined between 530 and 577. A breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could prompt a retest of 617, while a close below 536 may lead to a decline toward the 521–514 support range.

2024 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range for selling more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop remains 650–700 vs. March ’25.

  • Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued just two sales recommendations so far, reflecting last year’s significant yield uncertainty and limited post-harvest opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged around 719 vs. July ’24 futures. A sale within the next target range will lower this average, but upside opportunity expectations remain modest for now.

  • Open Call Options: For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold. While actionable targets are still a way off, these options have about five months remaining until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop is still 640–665 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Maintains Range
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with initial resistance near the 100-day moving average at 568. A close above 583 could pave the way for a move toward 600, while a close below 536 risks a decline to 525.

2024 Crop:

  • Potential Sales Target Range: The initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop is a rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25. That said, keep in mind that the near-record short position held by the Funds could lead Grain Market Insider to adjust this target range higher as price action develops.

  • Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue holding them. While actionable targets remain distant, these options have about five months left until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Holds Range
Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound between 585 and 613. A breakout above 613 could spark a rally toward 655, with interim resistance at 624 and 637. Conversely, a close below 585 may trigger a decline toward November lows near 568.

Other Charts / Weather

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1-30 Midday: Wheat Trends Higher at Midday; Corn and Soybeans Remain Weaker

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 492 -5
JUL ’25 505.5 -3.5
DEC ’25 464.75 -2
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1046 -14.5
JUL ’25 1076.25 -12.5
NOV ’25 1055.25 -8.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 568.75 6.25
JUL ’25 594 6
JUL ’26 642.25 1.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 588 7.75
JUL ’25 606.75 7
JUL ’26 639.75 -0.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 620.5 6.75
JUL ’25 636 5
SEP ’25 645 5.25
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6066.5 -1
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 73.19 0.57
Gold
APR ’25 2845.7 52.2

  • Corn is weaker at midday on what appears to be profit taking after prices reached a new 8-month high yesterday.

  • Weekly export sales for corn came in at 54 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 29% from last year at 1.704 bb.

  • Conab reported that safrinha planting is just 1.4% done compared to 10.3% complete at this time last year.

  • LSEG lowered their Brazil production estimate 1% to 126 mmt. This compares to the USDA which has Brazil corn production pegged at 127 mmt.

  • Soybeans are weaker at midday on poor export sales and lack of demand due to China’s golden week holiday.

  • Weekly export sales for soybeans were at the bottom end of expectations at 16 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.568 bb which is up 12% from last year.

  • Deral reported that Parana soybean harvest is 18% complete with yields trending slightly lower than originally estimated.

  • One of Brazil’s most important rail terminals in the Santos region, caught on fire this morning. The terminal receives up to 2,000 trucks per day. This could offer some support in the soy complex as more information is gathered.

  • Wheat is trending higher at midday on poor global weather and Russian drone attacks on Ukranian ports.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat were in line with expectations at 18 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 667 mb which is up 8% year-over-year.

  • Russia’s Agriculture Minister, Oksana Lut, said that 82% of the country’s winter wheat crop is in good or satisfactory condition.

  • SovEcon has lowered their Russian wheat export forecast nearly 1 mmt to 42.8 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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01-30 Opening Update: Grains Giving Back a Portion of Yesterday’s Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 494.5 -2.5
JUL ’25 507 -2
DEC ’25 465.75 -1

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1050.5 -10
JUL ’25 1079.75 -9
NOV ’25 1056.5 -7

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 562.5 0
JUL ’25 588 0
JUL ’26 640.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 581.25 1
JUL ’25 600.75 1
JUL ’26 640.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 616.75 3
JUL ’25 633.75 2.75
SEP ’25 642 2.25

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6075.75 8.25

Crude Oil

MAR ’25 72.5 -0.12

Gold

APR ’25 2817.6 24.1

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday, the March contract reached its highest level since May 2024. Prices have begun to back off now that they are facing resistance at the 5-dollar mark.

  • In Brazil, safrinha corn planting is falling behind schedule, with only 1% planted compared to the 10% average. Forecasts call for rain next week, further tightening the planting window. Some Brazilian farmers are considering switching from corn to sorghum as a result.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 850k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,275k tons. This would compare with 1,670k last week and 1,351k a year ago.

  • Soybean futures are trading lower this morning giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains. As in corn, soybeans are nearing resistance, and funds may be taking profits on short positions. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.

  • Export demand has softened, with last week’s Gulf soybean loadings hitting their lowest level since mid-September. The Lunar New Year holiday in China and expectations for cheaper Brazilian supplies in the coming weeks may be contributing to the slowdown.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 450k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,150k. This would compare to 1,493k last week and 166k the previous year.

  • Wheat futures are mixed to start the day with Chicago trading slightly lower while KC and Minneapolis are higher. Prices rallied higher yesterday on technical short covering and poor global weather.

  • Global crop concerns continue to rise as Western Europe is too wet and the Black Sea and Ukraine too dry. France’s wet weather is hurting crop ratings and dimming production prospects. Russia’s wheat crop could fall below 85 MMT.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 150k and 500k tons with an average guess of 300k. This would compare to last week’s 215k and 338k the previous year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.