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2-18 End of Day: Grains Green to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures surged to start the week, with March closing above $5 for the first time in 16 months and December hitting its highest level since last June.

  • Soybeans: Closed higher supported by soybean oil and stronger corn and wheat futures. Export inspections and NOPA crush for January both came in below expectations.

  • Wheat: Strength in corn lifted wheat futures Tuesday, with all three classes posting modest gains. Bitter cold temperatures across the Plains fueled winterkill concerns and supported buying.

  • To see the updated U.S. 6-10 day precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as the 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Targets shifted to May: As volume and open interest shift to the May ’25 contract, Grain Market Insider has adjusted its target range from the March ’25 to the May ’25 contract. Today’s market strength pushed May ’25 to the upper end of the 495–515 target range, triggering a recommendation to sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 new crop corn.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Money flowed into the corn market for the first trading day of the week as corn futures finished with strong gains. The March contract closed above the $5 level for the first time in 16 months. New crop December corn futures finished at their highest level since last June.

  • Strong demand continues to fuel the market. Weekly export inspections for February 13 reached 1.611 MMT (63.4 mb), the highest for that week in 43 years, with exports running 35% ahead of last year and above USDA targets.

  • Preliminary data suggests that corn exports from the U.S. may have broken a 35-year-old record for the month of January. It is estimated that the U.S. shipped over 6 MMT (236 mb) in the month of January.

  • Brazil’s second-crop corn planting is behind schedule at 36% complete (up from 20% last week but below last year’s 59%), as farmers push to finish planting within the ideal weather window despite recent improvements in weather conditions.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,828 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net long 332,389 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • New Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher led by soybean oil and bullish sentiment in corn and wheat. March futures rebounded from overnight lows that saw prices down as much as 10 cents. Export inspections were disappointing and NOPA crush numbers were below expectations. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while soybean oil followed crude oil higher.

  • Today’s export inspections report showed a total of 26.5 million bushels of soybeans inspected for export for the week ending February 13. Total inspections in 24/25 are now at 1.323 mb which is up 12% from the previous year. This was below the lowest range of trade estimates as Brazilian harvest progresses.

  • Today’s NOPA Crush report saw January soybean crush coming in at 200.38 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 204.5 mb. This was also below last month’s 206.6 mb but higher than last year’s crush at this time of 185.8 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 28,554 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of 28,475 contracts. They were net buyers of bean oil and sellers of meal.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 28,554 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net long 28,475 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted modest gains across all classes, supported by strength in corn, soybeans, and Matif wheat. Bitter cold in the Midwest and Plains continues to raise winterkill concerns in areas with limited snow cover.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 9.2 mb, bringing the 24/25 total to 546 mb, up 22% from last year and ahead of USDA’s 850 mb export target (up 20% YoY).

  • Diplomats from the U.S. and Russia met today in Saudi Arabia to discuss negotiations for ending the war in Ukraine. However, Ukrainian ambassadors were reportedly absent from these discussions, which raises questions as to what type of agreement will be reached, if any. Nevertheless, traders will be keeping an eye on these talks, as it could impact wheat trade in that region of the world.

  • IKAR reported Russian wheat export values rose $2/mt to $247/mt FOB last week and lowered February 2025 export estimates to 1.6-1.8 mmt from 2 mmt, well below February 2024’s 4.1 mmt.

  • Since their export season began on July 1, Ukraine has shipped 27.5 mmt of grain, according to their ag ministry. This is up about 2% year over year. Wheat exports in specific account for 11.5 mmt of that total, which is up 9% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7633 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 82,809 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,733 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 30,248 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Sit tight on making any additional sales for now given the recent recommendation.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Hold: No additional sales are recommended at this time, given the recent guidance.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,172 contracts between February 4 – February 11, bringing their total position to a net short 10,912 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-18 Midday: Grains Trend Higher Midday Following Long Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 500.75 4.5
JUL ’25 516.5 5.25
DEC ’25 476 3
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1039 3
JUL ’25 1071.25 3
NOV ’25 1056.5 4.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 605.25 5.25
JUL ’25 630.5 5.25
JUL ’26 663.75 6.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 625.75 4.5
JUL ’25 647.25 4.75
JUL ’26 675 6.5
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 639.5 6
JUL ’25 667 5.5
SEP ’25 677 5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6137.75 5.75
Crude Oil
APR ’25 71.53 0.82
Gold
APR ’25 2946.6 45.9

  • Corn is trading higher at midday, supported by a tighter global supply outlook.

  • The corn market, previously focused on the improving weather conditions in South America, is now shifting its attention to the strong demand for U.S. corn. This shift is driven by the potential influence of President Trump in persuading global buyers to ‘Buy American.’ Additionally, the recent decline in the U.S. dollar has sparked a surge in demand for U.S. corn exports.

  • AgRural reports that safrinha corn planting is 36% complete, compared to 59% at this time last year, due to a delayed soybean harvest caused by wet weather. This delay is leaving producers scrambling to get the corn planted within the ideal climate window.

  • Recent strength in the corn markets suggests that traders believe tariffs on Mexico can be avoided by March 1st and that U.S. exports will not be significantly impacted.

  • Soybeans are trending higher at midday, with the entire soy complex gaining support from declining U.S. exports and improved weather conditions in South America.

  • Much-needed rains fell across Argentina over the weekend, with the 6-10 day forecast indicating the possibility of additional rainfall. This has brought much-needed relief to the soybean crop in the region.

  • Brazil’s weather looks to be mostly dry until late in next week. AgRural says Brazil’s soybean harvest is 23% complete compared to 32% a year ago. IMEA reports the Mato Gasso harvest is 50% done.

  • With soybean exports declining and weather conditions improving in South America, the potential for significant price increases in soybeans is likely to be limited.

  • Wheat is trading higher at midday, supported by the recent decline in the U.S. dollar and the strengthening of global grain prices.

  • Polar temperatures have moved into the U.S. Plains, but snow from recent and upcoming storms is expected to insulate the crops, preventing further winterkill damage—except in South Dakota, where snow cover is lacking. The weather in the Plains is forecasted to dramatically warm up after this week.

  • Russia is expecting another cold snap this week, but upcoming storms are expected to bring snow that will help insulate the crops. According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices have risen by $2 this week, reaching $247 per ton. Russian wheat exports have increased for the fourth consecutive week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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02-18 Opening Update: Grains Mixed After Long Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 497.75 1.5
JUL ’25 512.75 1.5
DEC ’25 473.5 0.5

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1033.25 -2.75
JUL ’25 1066.25 -2
NOV ’25 1049.75 -2.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 595.5 -4.5
JUL ’25 619.75 -5.5
JUL ’26 657.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 615.25 -6
JUL ’25 636.25 -6.25
JUL ’26 668.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 629.5 -4
JUL ’25 658.5 -3
SEP ’25 668.5 -3.5

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6152 20

Crude Oil

APR ’25 71.32 0.61

Gold

APR ’25 2927.2 26.5

  • Corn is trading higher this morning despite losses in both soybeans and wheat and remains near the highs of its recent trading range.

  • In Argentina, the corn crop conditions were updated showing that the stretch of dry weather impacted crop ratings. 7 points were cut from the good to excellent conditions with 67% of the crop rated normal to regular and 33% poor to very poor.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn by 31,828 contracts as of February 11 which lowered their net long position to 332,389 contracts. Overall, funds are still near their record long position.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning, but have rebounded from overnight lows which saw prices as much as 10 cents lower. Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 28,554 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of 28,475 contracts. They were net buyers of bean oil and sellers of meal.

  • All three wheat classes are lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way down. On Friday, March Chicago wheat rallied up to its 200-day moving average which seems to be acting as resistance.

  • Global weather uncertainty could be providing support, with dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia and colder temperatures expected this week in both Russia and the U.S. Plains.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 7,633 contracts of Chicago wheat leaving them with a net short position of 82,809 contracts. They were buyers of 5,733 contracts of KC wheat which left them with a net short position of 30,248 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-14 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grains Higher Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: A strong rally in the wheat market provided support to corn futures, with March contracts testing resistance near the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans followed the broader grain complex higher on Friday, with soybean meal closing firm while soybean oil dipped alongside weaker crude oil prices.

  • Wheat: All three wheat classes surged sharply higher on Friday, driven by escalating tensions from a Russian drone strike and ongoing concerns about potential winterkill.

  • To see the updated U.S. corn and winter wheat areas in drought as well as the South America 7-day rainfall anomaly.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a 2024 crop sale on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Another Attempt at 500: The March ‘25 contract made its eighth attempt to break the 500 level since January 29, reaching an intraday high today of 499.75 before slipping back below prior resistance at 498.50.

  • New Resistance at 499.75: With today’s new high, previous resistance at 498.50 has shifted up to 499.75. A decisive break above this level could open the door for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: Still no Plan B for now as Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 499.75. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A strong rally in the wheat market provided support to corn futures, but selling resistance at the $5.00 level on the March contract capped gains, leading to a weaker close in the afternoon. Despite this, March corn futures ended the week 8 ¾ cents higher, marking a positive weekly performance.

  • Demand stayed supportive in the corn market as the USDA announced another flash export sale on Friday morning. Colombia purchased 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) for corn for the current marketing year.

  • Despite recent rainfall, crop condition for Argentina corn continued to slide last week. Only 16% of the crop is in good condition, down from 25% last week. Approximately 1/3 of the Argentina corn crop is struggling from recent hot and dry weather.

  • The corn market still has a supportive tone given the global stocks-to-use ratios. Excluding China, global stocks-to-use is at a 29-year low at 7.9%, and with China large supply calculated in, stocks-to-use is at an 11-year low.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: This week the March ‘25 contract posted a daily closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below the previous February low of 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation will require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day ahead of the long Presidents Day weekend. The grain complex was primarily led higher by large gains in wheat after a Russian drone strike escalated tensions in Ukraine. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil followed crude oil lower.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was poor for soybeans coming in below the range of analyst estimates at 7.7 million bushels. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Brazilian soybeans remain competitive with the US which is limiting export demand.

  • For the week, March soybeans lost 13-1/2 cents while November soybeans lost 5-1/2 cents. March soybean meal lost $5.50 to $295.90, and March soybean oil gained 0.09 cents to 46.07 cents. Pressure this week came from ongoing harvest in Brazil.

  • Yesterday, CONAB released its new estimates for 24/25 grain production this morning and lowered them from the previous month. The new estimates for soybeans are 166.014 mmt which compared to 166.328 mmt in January. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three U.S. wheat classes closed sharply higher on Friday, fueled by reports of a Russian drone strike on the Chernobyl reactor shield. Although reports indicate the damage was not severe and no radiation leakage occurred, the market reacted to the news, likely driven by perception and fund short covering. Continued concerns about potential winterkill, a higher close for Matif wheat, and a weaker U.S. dollar also supported the rally.

  • ABARE is not expected to update their total Australian wheat production estimate until March. However, the Western Australian Grain Industry Association has said that their state’s wheat harvest totaled 12.45 mmt, exceeding the December estimate of only 10.8 mmt. Furthermore, their total 2024 grain production at 22.4 mmt is said to be the third largest on record.

  • FranceAgriMer rated 73% of the French soft wheat crop as good to very good, up from 68% a year ago, indicating a strong crop condition.

  • The 2025 Russian grain harvest could reach between 140-145 mmt, according to OZK Group. For reference, the 2024 crop totaled 128 mmt. This estimate is said to be on the optimistic side, but even conservative estimates project a bigger harvest than last year. On a related note, Russia is expected to export 55 mmt of grain during the 24/25 season, which includes 44 mmt of wheat.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Slide Ended: The March ‘25 contract snapped its four-day losing streak today, posting a nearly four-cent gain. The overall pullback from the February 7 high appears constructive and orderly, which could set the stage for a move back higher.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop today.

  • First Sale Since September: This marks the first sales recommendation for the 2025 SRW wheat crop since September 3. With the July ‘25 contract up 19 cents this week and logging its sixth consecutive weekly gain, Grain Market Insider is recommending taking advantage of the 78-cent rally from the January low.

  • Next Target: If the July contract maintains its uptrend, the next target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Higher
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This marks a significant weekly close above the 200-day moving average, which is expected to provide support during any near-term pullbacks.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop today.

  • Second Sale Recommended: Grain Market Insider is advising a second sale this week, as the July ‘25 contract closed up 23 cents today and marked its fourth consecutive weekly gain.

  • Key Levels: The July ‘25 contract is now just 11 cents shy of the September high of 653.75 and has rallied 92 cents from the December low.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-14 Midday: Grains Trend Higher Ahead of Holiday Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 498.75 5.25
JUL ’25 513.75 4.75
DEC ’25 474.25 1.5
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1044.5 14.5
JUL ’25 1075.25 12.25
NOV ’25 1056.25 11
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 599.75 22
JUL ’25 624 21
JUL ’26 661.5 12
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 618.5 20.25
JUL ’25 639.25 19.75
JUL ’26 663 9.5
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 632 15.25
JUL ’25 659.5 15.5
SEP ’25 670.5 15.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6133.75 -1.5
Crude Oil
APR ’25 70.64 -0.5
Gold
APR ’25 2910.4 -35

  • Corn continues higher at midday as it continues to gain support from a tightening global supply outlook.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 100,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Colombia in 24/25.

  • A slow soybean harvest in Brazil is delaying the planting of safrinha corn, and a reduced corn crop in Argentina is improving the outlook for U.S. corn exports.

  • Rains in Argentina are helping to slow the decline in crop conditions, though some crops may be too far gone as the country continues to lower crop ratings.

  • Soybean prices continue to climb at midday, supported by drier weather in Argentina and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit a new two-month low overnight. Soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher, while soybean oil is experiencing some losses.

  • Rain has returned to Brazil, causing delays in the soybean harvest. However, the forecast for next week calls for more isolated showers, which should help resume harvest progress.

  • Weekly soybean export sales were weak yesterday, and the trend is expected to persist as harvested supplies become more available in South America.

  • The market continues to respond to tariff news, as President Trump announced yesterday that reciprocal tariffs will not take effect until April, allowing time for negotiations.

  • Wheat prices are moving higher at midday, supported by ongoing winterkill concerns across the U.S. Plains and a decline in the U.S. dollar.

  • Traders are closely monitoring the U.S. Plains and the Black Sea region for freeze risks to the winter wheat crop as another cold snap moves through areas already showing signs of winterkilled patches. However, the forecasted snow may provide much-needed protection to the crops.

  • World weather uncertainty for 2025 may be providing support to the wheat market, as dry conditions persist in Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Russia is expected to experience a cold snap next week, which could further stress crops.

  • The USDA reduced China’s demand for wheat, corn, and soybeans by 22 mmt, while weekly wheat export sales are estimated to range from 200 to 600 mt, compared to 438 mt last week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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02-14 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Ahead of Long Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 497.75 4.25
JUL ’25 513.25 4.25
DEC ’25 474.25 1.5

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1040 10
JUL ’25 1072 9
NOV ’25 1052.75 7.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 589.5 11.75
JUL ’25 615.25 12.25
JUL ’26 657 7.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 610 11.75
JUL ’25 630.25 10.75
JUL ’26 659.75 6.25

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 626.75 10
JUL ’25 652.75 8.75
SEP ’25 665 10.25

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6126.75 -8.5

Crude Oil

APR ’25 71.64 0.5

Gold

APR ’25 2956 10.6

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after posting gains yesterday and is at the top of its recent range, but still unable to break through $5 in the March contract. Yesterday’s export sales were supportive.

  • Corn demand has begun to slip as the US exits its export window, but yesterday, a sale of 130,320 mt of corn was reported to unknown destinations. The weekly ethanol EIA petroleum status report saw slightly lower ethanol production at 1.082 million bpd.

  • In Argentina, the corn crop conditions were updated showing that the stretch of dry weather impacted crop ratings. 7 points were cut from the good to excellent conditions with 67% of the crop rated normal to regular and 33% poor to very poor.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with corn and wheat after finding support for the second consecutive day at the 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was poor for soybeans coming in below the range of analyst estimates at 7.7 million bushels. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands.

  • South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.

  • All three wheat classes are higher to start the day again, and the March Chicago wheat futures are once again nearing the $6 mark that they have been unable to pass for months. World wheat values have risen supporting US wheat prices.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was better than expected for wheat with 22.3 million bushels sold, towards the higher end of analyst estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, South Korea, and the Philippines.

  • Global weather uncertainty could be providing support, with dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia and colder temperatures expected next week in both Russia and the U.S. Plains.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-13 End of Day: Grains Respond Positively to Weekly Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed the day quietly and mixed, following Tuesday’s neutral USDA report, and as traders await fresh news to bring back momentum in the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day higher, despite a weak weekly export sales report for the crop.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed the day with gains across all three classes, supported by a break in the US Dollar Index and a positive export sales report.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a sale for the 2024 crop on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Strong Resistance at 498.50: Since January 29, the March ‘25 contract has attempted to break the 500 level seven times, but each effort has fallen short, with intraday highs ranging from 496.50 to 498.50. A decisive break above 498.50 could pave the way for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: No Plan B for now—Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 498.50. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn had a quiet, mixed close, with the front months gaining a few cents while December was down by less than a penny. Following Tuesday’s neutral USDA report, traders may be awaiting fresh news, with attention shifting back to South American weather and tariff talks.

  • Weekly corn exports came in at 79 mb, with 65 mb in old crop sales, and 14 mb in 25/26 sales. This was above expectations and YTD commitments are at 1.827 billion, up 28% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 7%. The big buyers were Japan at 18 million, Korea at 13, and Mexico and Colombia each bought 10 million.

  • This morning CONAB released updated production estimates for Brazilian crops, raising the corn forecast by 2.5 mmt to 122 mmt and edging closer to the USDA projection of 126 mmt. However, the Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their corn production figure by 2 mmt to 46 mmt; the USDA stands at 50 mmt. These adjustments essentially offset each other, which may have contributed to today’s generally neutral trade.

  • The second half of February is expected to bring better rain chances to much of Argentina, offering relief from heat and dryness and helping to stabilize crops. However, it may be too late to undo any damage sustained up to this point. Meanwhile, Brazil’s forecast looks to improve over the next week, which should support a quicker pace for safrinha planting.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: The March ‘25 contract closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation would require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day slightly higher after recovering from a lower overnight trade. Despite weak export sales, new CONAB estimates were released, showing a more favorable outlook compared to the USDA. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil ended higher, even with a dip in crude oil prices.

  • Today’s export sales report was disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 6.8 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 25/26. This was well below the lowest analyst estimate, and primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 40.5 mb were above the 18.6 mb needed each month to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • CONAB released its new estimates for 24/25 grain production this morning and lowered them from the previous month. The new estimates for soybeans are 166.014 mmt which compared to 166.328 mmt in January. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt.

  • South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest gains across all three classes, with Kansas City futures leading the way. In fact, wheat was the top performer in the grain complex today, benefiting from a break in the US Dollar Index and a decent export sales report. In other news, wire services reported this afternoon that the Senate has confirmed Brooke Rollins as the new head of the USDA.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and an increase of 1.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 21.2 mb, which is above the 19.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal at 850 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 704 mb for 24/25, which is up 9% from last year, whereas the USDA is looking for a 20% increase.

  • According to the USDA, as of February 11, an estimated 23% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions; this is unchanged from the week prior. Meanwhile, spring wheat areas in drought decreased from 45% to 40% for that same time period. Given the large snowstorm that just moved through the central US, conditions may show further improvement next week.

  • In an update from FranceAgriMer, French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season are anticipated to reach 9.74 mmt. This is up just slightly from their January estimate at 9.735 mmt. Furthermore, the stockpiles estimate was reduced from 2.89 mmt to 2.81 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Slide Ended: The March ‘25 contract snapped its four-day losing streak today, posting a nearly four-cent gain. The overall pullback from the February 7 high appears constructive and orderly, which could set the stage for a move back higher.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above two: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-13 Midday: Corn and Wheat Lean Higher at Midday; Soybeans Remain Soft

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 492 1.75
JUL ’25 508.25 1
DEC ’25 472 -1.5
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1027.75 0
JUL ’25 1060.5 -1.5
NOV ’25 1044.5 0.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 574.75 0.5
JUL ’25 600 1.25
JUL ’26 646.5 1
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 596.5 5
JUL ’25 616.5 5.25
JUL ’26 645.5 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 615.75 1
JUL ’25 641.5 2
SEP ’25 652.5 2
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6111.5 38.75
Crude Oil
APR ’25 70.94 -0.3
Gold
APR ’25 2944.1 15.4

  • Corn prices have rebounded at midday on strong export sales results and slow harvest pace in Brazil.

  • Weekly corn export sales came in above trade expectations at 79 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.827 bb which is up 28% from the same week last year.

  • Conab raised their corn production estimate for Brazil from 119.55 mt in January to 122.01 in February.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered corn production estimate for Argentina by 2 mmt to 46 mmt.

  • Soybean prices remain softer at midday on a combination of poor export sales and lowered production estimates for South America.

  • Weekly soybean export sales came in below trade expectations at 8 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.589 bb which are 12% higher than a year ago.

  • Conab lowered their Brazil soybean production estimate from 166.32 mmt last month to 166.01 mmt this month.

  • Brazil’s harvest is reportedly just 15% complete compared to 21% done for the same time last year.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their Argentina soybean production number to 47.5 mmt, which is below the USDA’s 49 mmt estimate.

  • Wheat prices continue slightly higher at midday on strong export sales results.  

  • Weekly wheat export sales came in at 22 mb which were in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 704 mb, up 9% from last year.

  • Yesterday President Trump and Russia’s Putin agreed to have talks on ending the war in Ukraine.

  • Conab has raised their wheat crop estimate from 8.06 mmt last month to 9.11 mmt this morning.

  • Strategie grains raised their EU SRW production estimate slightly to 127.7 mmt, up from 127.2 mmt in their last forecast.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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02-13 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Lower to Start the Day, Wheat Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 487 -3.25
JUL ’25 505 -2.25
DEC ’25 472.25 -1.25

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1027.5 -0.25
JUL ’25 1061.25 -0.75
NOV ’25 1044.25 0.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 578 3.75
JUL ’25 602.25 3.5
JUL ’26 645.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 597.5 6
JUL ’25 617.75 6.5
JUL ’26 645.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 618.25 3.5
JUL ’25 643.25 3.75
SEP ’25 654.25 3.75

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6066 -6.75

Crude Oil

APR ’25 70.39 -0.85

Gold

APR ’25 2946.2 17.5

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as it remains in its trading range with the March contract between $4.80 and $5.00. Improved weather in South America has kept both corn and soybeans from rallying further.

  • Corn demand has begun to slip as the US exits its export window, but yesterday, a sale of 130,320 mt of corn was reported to unknown destinations. The weekly ethanol EIA petroleum status report saw slightly lower ethanol production at 1.082 million bpd.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,363k. This would compare to 1,527k a week ago and 1,309k a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after significant losses yesterday and are on track for a third consecutive lower close, but may find some support at $10.25, the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 800k tons with an average guess of 494k tons. This would compare to 388k last week and 308k a year ago.

  • All three wheat classes are higher to start the day and have held up surprisingly well as corn has faltered and soybeans have turned lower. Wheat is undervalued compared to corn and may have a reason to rally further with global production concerns.

  • Global weather uncertainty could be providing support, with dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia and colder temperatures expected next week in both Russia and the U.S. Plains.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 424k tons. This would compare to 486k last week and 397k a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-12 End of Day: Corn Recovers, Soybeans Continue Lower Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures rebounded today, recovering some of yesterday’s losses despite weakness in other grains. New crop contracts pushed to fresh highs for 2025.

  • Soybeans: Extended their decline on Wednesday, dropping by double digits. Ongoing harvest pressure in Brazil, along with weaker soybean prices in both Brazil and China, weighed on the market.

  • Wheat: Found support from stronger corn futures, helping prices stabilize and close near unchanged on the day.

  • To see the updated GRACE-Based shallow groundwater drought indictor for the U.S. as well as the 30-day percent of normal rainfall for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

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Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Last Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider last recommended a sale for the 2024 crop on February 4 at 494.50.

  • Strong Resistance at 498.50: Since January 29, the March ‘25 contract has attempted to break the 500 level seven times, but each effort has fallen short, with intraday highs ranging from 496.50 to 498.50. A decisive break above 498.50 could pave the way for a run toward the May 1996 high of 513.50.

  • Strategy: No Plan B for now—Grain Market Insider recently recommended a sale within the current range, so the focus remains on giving March ‘25 a shot at clearing 498.50. If it breaks through, the next upside target would be 512, just below the 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop at the current price level.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures found support on Wednesday as buyers stepped back in, erasing most of Tuesday’s losses despite overall grain market weakness. Strong demand continues to underpin prices.

  • The corn market was disappointed in the lack of changes on Tuesday USDA Supply/demand report, but traders may have stepped into the corn market on the belief that the USDA will need to reduce carryout in future reports as both export and ethanol demand have remained strong.

  • The USDA announced a flash corn export sales on Wednesday morning. USDA stated that unknown destinations purchased 130,320 mt (5.1 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. 

  • On Thursday morning, the USDA will release weekly corn export sales totals. Expectations for the week ending Feb 6, the new exports sales range from 800,000 – 1.7 MMT. Last week’s sales totaled 1.477 MMt as U.S. corn export demand has remained supportive.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.082 million bpd in the week ending February 7. This was down from 1.112 million bpd the previous week.  Corn used in the production of ethanol was estimated at 104.3 million bushels for the week.  The current pace is still trending ahead of the target set by the USDA for the marketing year.

Corn Bulls in Control, Eyeing Key Resistance
The corn market’s post-harvest rally remains intact, driven by strong fund buying and robust demand. Solid support holds at 475, with additional footing near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are pressing against the 500 mark — a critical resistance level that could dictate the next move. With buyers still engaged, all eyes are on whether momentum can propel corn beyond this key threshold.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Break of 1039: The March ‘25 contract closed below 1039 for the first time since January 17, setting a new monthly low by breaking the February 3 low of 1031.75. This marks the first lower low since the market bottomed on December 19, interrupting the previous pattern of higher highs and higher lows that led to the February 5 high of 1079.75.

  • Possible Trend Change: The break below 1031.75 could indicate a potential trend shift, but confirmation would require additional downside follow-through in the coming sessions.

2025 Crop:

  • Recent Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently advised selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop and purchasing call options. For full details, see the recommendations summary table below.

  • Current Recommendation: Hold off on any additional actions for now. With recent recommendations in place, Grain Market Insider is comfortable waiting for higher price levels, especially given how early it is in the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans extended their losses for a second consecutive session following Tuesday’s WASDE report, which left U.S. carryout unchanged despite trade expectations for a decline. Pressure continues from Brazil’s ongoing harvest and signs of a peak in soybean prices on China’s Dalian exchange. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower.

  • Private exporters reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year this morning. However, U.S. export sales have begun to slow as Brazil’s export season gains momentum.

  • In China, soybean futures on the Dalian exchange may be topping out. In addition, Brazilian soybeans are 80 cents cheaper per bushel compared to the US. China has primarily been a buy of Brazilian and Argentinian soybeans.

  • Weather in Argentina has improved with rain falling and more in the forecast. While the USDA reduced their estimates for Argentinian soybean production yesterday, a large crop is still expected, and Argentinian soybean meal prices have reached their lowest levels since Covid.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures fluctuated throughout the session but ultimately closed with small losses, pressured by weaker soybean prices, easing winterkill concerns, and reports of potential Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. A sharp decline in Matif wheat futures also failed to offer support to U.S. prices.

  • The snowstorm moving across the central US should provide snow cover to help insulate much of the winter wheat crop before the upcoming frigid temperatures. This has reduced the concern on traders’ minds of damage to the winter wheat crop. Furthermore, the Black Sea region is expected to receive good snow cover to help protect their wheat too.

  • News outlets have reported that President Trump had a phone call today with Putin, in which they discussed the Ukraine war among other topics. Reportedly, Putin has agreed to begin negotiations to end the war. And though Ukraine has already been highly successful in shipping grain in the face of logistics issues, this still may be perceived as negative to prices.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of February 9 have reached just 13 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 36% drop from the 20.4 mmt shipped for the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • No Change: The 680-705 range for March ‘25 remains the next potential target for a sale.

  • Uptrend Intact: Despite a four-day pullback, the March ‘25 contract continues to hold a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

2025 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about five months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Attempts to Break Out
Kansas City wheat futures kicked off February on a strong note, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A decisive close above the October peak of 623 could open the door for a rally toward the 700 level. On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day moving average, with stronger support around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop.

  • Latest Sales Rec: This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.

  • Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop.

  • Stalling Momentum: The September ’25 contract has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing strong resistance around 660 for the past four sessions. With the price up about 8% from the January 3 low of 605, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2025 new crop Minneapolis wheat today. This marks the first recommendation for the 2025 crop since July 23 of last year.

  • Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather