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2-24 Opening Update: Grains in the Red to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 486 -5.25
JUL ’25 504.75 -4.75
DEC ’25 471.5 -3.5

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1035 -4.5
JUL ’25 1068 -5
NOV ’25 1054.75 -5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 579.5 -10.5
JUL ’25 607.25 -10
JUL ’26 659.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 598.5 -10.75
JUL ’25 623.5 -10.25
JUL ’26 669.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 621.25 -10.5
JUL ’25 649.5 -10.5
SEP ’25 662 -8

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6057.5 28.5

Crude Oil

APR ’25 70.36 -0.04

Gold

APR ’25 2961.6 8.4

  • Corn is trading lower to start the day following losses on Friday that have seen March futures rolling over after briefly exceeding the 5-dollar mark. Pressure is coming from the decision on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico that had been pushed off for 30 days.

  • US ethanol stocks rose by 2% according to last week’s report to 26.218m bbl, ands analysts were expecting 25.731m. Plant production came in at 1.084m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.078m.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn by 21,144 contracts which increased their net long position to 353,533 contracts bringing them closer to their record net long position.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning but remain in a tight range that began on February 12. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well as lower wheat drags down both corn and soybeans.

  • Agroconsult has cut their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop by 1.1 mmt but the new estimate is still a record at 171.3 mmt. This would be 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop with the center North region making up most of the gains.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 11,949 contracts leaving them net long 16,526 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil but sellers of soybean meal.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are on track for a third lower close out of the past 4 trading sessions. Temperatures across the Midwest are expected to rise which trade views as bearish.

  • In France, 2025 wheat plantings are up 10% on improved weather with 6.35 million hectares of winter grains planted for the 2025 harvest. This is up 7.2% from last year’s plantings.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 21,232 contracts leaving them net short 61,577 contracts. They were buyers of KC wheat by 8,158 contracts leaving them net short 22,090 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-21 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Slide to End the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: March corn futures hit resistance at $5 this week, with selling pressure continuing into Friday. Improved South American weather added to the downside momentum.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended Friday lower as weak export sales and Brazil’s advancing harvest weighed on the market.

  • Wheat: Despite weakness in corn and soybeans, wheat futures closed higher, with Chicago leading the gains.

  • To see the updated U.S. drought monitor as well as the updated week one GFS forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop. This is the second sales recommendation this week.

  • Target Range Hit: The May contract once again attempted to break through the upper end of Grain Market Insider’s target range (495–515) yesterday but failed to advance. This potentially stalling momentum triggered yesterday’s new sale recommendation. Keep in mind as the sentiment of market participants has shifted to extremely bullish, that at yesterday’s close, the front month continuous price was already up nearly 38% from the August 12 low of 372.50 – bird in the hand…

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.

  • The December ‘25 contract closed above 479 resistance yesterday, signaling potential for continued upside movement. Purchasing these call options reopens upside potential on the sales recommendations made to date. Additionally, buying two strikes provides flexibility—the lower strike can be exited once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead—especially weather—it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Current sales recommendations are building a buffer against downside scenarios, while the call options purchase helps reopen upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–2 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with moderate losses as the March contract slipped 5 cents, once again failing to break above the key $5 resistance level. This came despite strong export sales and support from the wheat market.

  • The USDA announced weekly export sales totals on Friday morning. For the week ending February 13, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.454 MMT (57.2 mb). Total accumulated sales are now running 29% above last year and well ahead of the pace to reach the USDA corn export target.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its corn crop ratings, citing recent rainfall that helped stabilize conditions. The percentage of the crop rated “good” increased by 3%, while the “poor” category declined by the same amount.

  • Recent improved weather in the Brazil state of Mato Grasso has allowed corn planting of the second crop corn to catch up to pace. The Brazil Ag analyst group IMEA forecast the corn planting in Mato Grasso is 67.2% complete, just slightly behind the 5-year pace of 70.2%. Mato Grasso produces just under 50% of the Brazil second crop corn.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but have maintained a narrow trading range over the past week. Pressure today came from poor export sales and a general decline in export demand recently. Soybean meal was mixed with losses in the front months and gains in the deferred contracts while soybean oil was lower.

  • Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with an increase of 18 million bushels. While this was within trade expectations, export demand has slipped with ongoing Brazilian harvest. Sales were up from last week, but down 23% from the previous 4-week average.

  • For the week, March soybeans gained 3-1/2 cents to $10.39-1/2 while November soybeans gained 7-3/4 cents to $10.59-3/4. March soybean meal lost $1.10 to $294.80, and March soybean oil gained 0.74 cents to 46.81 cents.

  • The International Grains Council decreased their estimate of global soybean production by 2 mmt to 418 mmt. This is said to be largely due to smaller production in Argentina and Paraguay. For reference, the USDA’s February forecast sits at 421 mmt.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • In the face of lower corn and soybeans, a higher U.S. Dollar Index, and a negative close for Paris milling wheat futures, U.S. wheat had a relatively strong close. Chicago futures led the wheat complex to the upside, despite little in the way of fresh news to drive the market. Support at the 10-day moving average has kept all three classes propped up.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 19.6 mb for 24/25 and 3.6 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 8.6 mb fell below the 19.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export estimate of 850 mb. Total commitments at 724 mb are up 11% compared to a year ago, though the USDA forecast calls for a 20% increase.

  • CoBank estimates U.S. spring wheat acreage will decline 6% to 10 million acres this year. Next week’s USDA Outlook Forum may provide further insight, though it won’t be official data.

  • The Russian ag ministry is reported to have reduced their wheat export tax by 24.6% to 2,742.60 Rubles per mt, valid through March 4.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given the recent sale recommendation, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-21 Midday: Wheat Continues Higher at Midday; Corn and Soybeans Slide

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Grain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’25 493.5 -4.5
JUL ’25 511.5 -5.25
DEC ’25 476 -3.5
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1040 -5.5
JUL ’25 1073 -4.75
NOV ’25 1059.25 -2
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 589.25 3.75
JUL ’25 617.5 3.5
JUL ’26 659.5 2.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 611.5 4
JUL ’25 637 5
JUL ’26 666 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 633 0.25
JUL ’25 661 0.75
SEP ’25 671.25 1.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6103.75 -32.75
Crude Oil
APR ’25 70.89 -1.59
Gold
APR ’25 2947.2 -8.9
Click here to view the latest full strategy report
Market Notes: Corn
  • Corn prices remain weaker at midday on chances of rainfall next week in Argentina.
  • Weekly corn export sales came in at 57 mb, which was in line with trade estimates. Year-to-date commitments total 1.885 billion bushels, up 29% from a year ago.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that corn conditions in Argentina improved 3% from last week to 19% good-to-excellent.
  • Ag lender, CoBank, sees corn acreage in the US at 94.55 million acres, up from 90.6 last year.
Market Notes: Soybeans
  • Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday on improving harvest progress in Brazil and chances of rain next week in Argentina.
  • Weekly soybean export sales totaled 18 mb, which was on the high end of expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.607 billion bushels, up 13% from last year.
  • CoBank projects lower planted acres for soybeans compared to last year at 84 million acres.
  • Argentina’s crush for January came in above expectations at 2.896 mmt, but was well below December’s 3.649 mmt.
Market Notes: Wheat
  • Wheat prices are firm at midday on expected dry conditions in the Plains states over the next two weeks.
  • Weekly wheat export sales came in above trade expectations at 23 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 726 mb, up 11% from a year ago.
  • The International Grains Council has raised their global wheat production estimate by 1 mmt to 797 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

  • Corn prices remain weaker at midday on chances of rainfall next week in Argentina.

  • Weekly corn export sales came in at 57 mb, which was in line with trade estimates. Year-to-date commitments total 1.885 billion bushels, up 29% from a year ago.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that corn conditions in Argentina improved 3% from last week to 19% good-to-excellent.

  • Ag lender, CoBank, sees corn acreage in the US at 94.55 million acres, up from 90.6 last year.

  • Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday on improving harvest progress in Brazil and chances of rain next week in Argentina.

  • Weekly soybean export sales totaled 18 mb, which was on the high end of expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.607 billion bushels, up 13% from last year.

  • CoBank projects lower planted acres for soybeans compared to last year at 84 million acres.

  • Argentina’s crush for January came in above expectations at 2.896 mmt, but was well below December’s 3.649 mmt.

  • Wheat prices are firm at midday on expected dry conditions in the Plains states over the next two weeks.

  • Weekly wheat export sales came in above trade expectations at 23 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 726 mb, up 11% from a year ago.

  • The International Grains Council has raised their global wheat production estimate by 1 mmt to 797 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-21 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Lower, Wheat Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 497.5 -0.5
JUL ’25 516.25 -0.5
DEC ’25 478.5 -1
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1043.75 -1.75
JUL ’25 1076.75 -1
NOV ’25 1060.5 -0.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 590 4.5
JUL ’25 618.5 4.5
JUL ’26 657 0
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 612 4.5
JUL ’25 636 4
JUL ’26 666 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 635.25 2.5
JUL ’25 662.75 2.5
SEP ’25 667.75 -1.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6138.5 2
Crude Oil
APR ’25 71.87 -0.61
Gold
APR ’25 2947.1 -9

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after posting slight gains yesterday. March futures are now 7 cents off their recent high, and are technically overbought. First notice day for March futures is 2/28.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,375k tons. This would compare to 1,999k a week ago and 998k a year ago at this time.

  • US ethanol stocks rose by 2% according to yesterday’s report to 26.218m bbl, ands analysts were expecting 25.731m. Plant production came in at 1.084m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.078m.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after higher trade yesterday, but prices have been rangebound over the past week and have been unable to rally significantly due to slipping demand. Both soybean meal and oil are lower.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 100k and 500k tons with an average guess of 317k tons. This would compare to 210k last week and 56k a year ago.

  • Agroconsult has cut their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop by 1.1 mmt but the new estimate is still a record at 171.3 mmt. This would be 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop with the center North region making up most of the gains.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. Wheat futures have been trending higher since the end of December as winter kill in the US concerns traders.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average estimate of 472k tons. This would compare to 606k last week and 280k a year ago.

  • In France, 2025 wheat plantings are up 10% on improved weather with 6.35 million hectares of winter grains planted for the 2025 harvest. This is up 7.2% from last year’s plantings.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-20 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Post Gains, Wheat Remains Under Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market closed the day with modest gains, receiving support from the soybean market and a continued positive outlook in the weekly export report, which remains favorable for corn demand.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans finished the day higher, recovering yesterday’s losses and then some, supported by both soybean oil and soybean meal.

  • Wheat: The wheat market faced resistance today, closing the session with losses as concerns over cold weather eased, with warmer temperatures expected to move into the affected regions by the weekend.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today. This is the second sales recommendation this week.

  • Target Range Hit: The May contract once again attempted to break through the upper end of Grain Market Insider’s target range (495–515) today but failed to advance. This stalled momentum triggered today’s new sale recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.

  • The December ‘25 contract closed above 479 resistance today, signaling potential for continued upside movement. Purchasing these call options reopens upside potential on the sales recommendations made to date. Additionally, buying two strikes provides flexibility—the lower strike can be exited once it covers the cost of the upper strike.

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and today’s call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead—especially weather—it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 on the upside and $3–$4 on the downside.

  • Current sales recommendations are building a buffer against downside scenarios, while today’s call option purchase helps reopen upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–2 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy trade in the corn market saw prices finish with modest gains for the session. With March options expiring on Friday, strength in the soybean market provided support and added volatility to the corn market.

  • March corn options will expire on Friday, potentially increasing volatility as traders adjust positions ahead of the deadline. The 500 level of March calls is the largest area of open interest, and prices may hold near that level.

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) released its latest global corn production estimates, lowering the world crop by 3 mmt due to weather-related impacts on South American production this growing season. However, the IGC’s estimates remain higher than those of the USDA for global corn production.

  • The weekly ethanol production report continues to support corn demand. Production rebounded to 319 million gallons, showing a slight increase from the previous week. An estimated 109 MB of corn were used for ethanol production, keeping pace ahead of the required rate to meet USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Friday morning. Expectations are for the week ending February 13, that new sales range from 900,000 MT –1.6 MMT. Last week total sales were 1.65 MMT as export demand stays supportive in the corn market.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher, recovering all of yesterday’s losses and then some. However, prices have remained rangebound over the past week, with support at the 40-day moving average. Soybean oil also rebounded, regaining all of yesterday’s losses, while soybean meal was higher as well, with both products providing support for soybeans.

  • Agroconsult has revised its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop down by 1.1 mmt, but the new estimate remains a record at 171.3 mmt. This is 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop, with the majority of the gains coming from the Center-North region.

  • The International Grains Council decreased their estimate of global soybean production by 2 mmt to 418 mmt. This is said to be largely due to smaller production in Argentina and Paraguay. For reference, the USDA’s February forecast sits at 421 mmt.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised their rating of Argentina’s soybean conditions by 2% to 66% of the crop rated normal to excellent. Additionally, soil moisture conditions were also improved by 5 points. With that, critical weather still lies ahead, as most of that crop has not started filling pods yet.

  • Tomorrow’s export sales report is expected to show soybean sales in a range between 300,000 and 500,000 tons. Export demand has been on the decline recently as the Brazilian soybean harvest progresses and they offer soybeans at a discount to US offers.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faced pressure today, closing with losses across all three classes. Minneapolis futures performed the best, likely supported by concerns over drought conditions in the U.S. Northern Plains. However, easing concerns about winter wheat crop damage may have contributed to today’s weakness, as temperatures in the nation’s midsection are expected to warm up by the weekend.

  • According to the USDA, as of February 18, an estimated 20% of U.S. winter wheat acreage is facing drought conditions, marking a 3% improvement from the previous week. However, spring wheat acreage remained steady, with 40% experiencing drought compared to the week prior, well above last year’s 22% for this time period.

  • The International Grains Council has increased their estimate of global wheat production by 1 mmt to 797 mmt. This is above the USDA’s February estimate of 794 mmt. The IGC’s increase is said to be mainly due to a bigger harvest in Kazakhstan.

  • According to their ag ministry, France planted 6.35 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest, which is up 7.2% from 2024, but still 1.3% below the five-year average. The planted area for soft wheat specifically is up 10% year over year at 4.57 million hectares.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-20 Midday: Corn and Soybeans Remain Firm at Midday, Wheat Falls

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 500 2.5
JUL ’25 518.5 3.25
DEC ’25 479.25 2.75
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1042 10.25
JUL ’25 1075 11
NOV ’25 1059.25 8
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 587.5 -4.5
JUL ’25 616 -3.75
JUL ’26 658.5 -2.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 611.5 -2.25
JUL ’25 635.25 -2.75
JUL ’26 672 0.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 635.25 1.75
JUL ’25 662.75 1.25
SEP ’25 672.5 0.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6110 -53
Crude Oil
APR ’25 72.68 0.58
Gold
APR ’25 2957.1 21

  • Corn prices continue to trade higher at midday on support from yesterday’s news that the Thai feed industry was considering purchasing $2.8 billion worth of US agriculture commodities.

  • Argentina corn production is forecasted slightly higher to 47.9 mmt due to favorable rainfall throughout the region.

  • Nutrien Ag Solutions estimates that corn acreage is up to 93 million acres, up from 90.6 million acres a year ago. They suggest a record fertilizer sales year could be on the way.

  • Soybean prices remain firm at midday, getting support from lowered production forecasts globally.

  • The International Grains Council has lowered the global soybean production estimate from 420 mmt to 418 mmt.

  • Agroconsult lowered their estimate for Brazil’s soybean output by 1.1 mmt to 171.3 mmt. Despite the large cut in production, Brazil is still expected to see a record

  • Wheat prices have turned lower at midday on warmer weather next week for the Midwest and Plains states.

  • According to the French Agriculture Ministry, French farmers have planted 6.35 million hectares of wheat, up 7.2% from last year.

  • Russia’s grain exports are expected to reach 55-57 mmt, down from 71 mmt last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-20 Opening Update: Grains Higher to Start the Day With Corn Leading

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 501.75 4.25
JUL ’25 519.25 4
DEC ’25 478.5 2

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1038.25 6.5
JUL ’25 1070 6
NOV ’25 1056.25 5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 594.5 2.5
JUL ’25 622.25 2.5
JUL ’26 661 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 618.5 4.75
JUL ’25 642.25 4.25
JUL ’26 672 0.75

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 642.75 9.25
JUL ’25 670.25 8.75
SEP ’25 679 7.25

S&P 500

MAR ’25 6143.75 -19.25

Crude Oil

APR ’25 72.25 0.15

Gold

APR ’25 2965.2 29.1

  • Corn is trading higher this morning and is back above the 5-dollar mark in March after sliding at yesterday’s close to $4.97. Yesterday, prices were likely brought lower by the large correction in the wheat complex.

  • Weather in South America has improved with more significant rains in Argentina and a mix of rain and sun in Brazil. The safrinha corn plantings in Brazil are estimated at 36% complete.

  • Estimates for the Weekly EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.078m barrels per day while stockpiles are estimated at 25.731m bbl which would compare to 25.692m a week ago.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after selling off at yesterday’s close and was driven by soybean oil which led soybeans higher to start the day but collapsed after meeting resistance. Soybean meal is lower today while bean oil is higher.

  • Agroconsult has cut their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop by 1.1 mmt but the new estimate is still a record at 171.3 mmt. This would be 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop with the center North region making up most of the gains.

  • In Argentina, high temperatures are expected to return to the grain belt while further rains look to come next week. Both soybeans and corn are in critical development stages there.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day with Minneapolis wheat leading the way. Yesterday, all wheat contracts reversed lower after breaking a few cents above the 200-day moving average.

  • The winter wheat crop in Texas was downgraded to just 33% good to excellent as of February 16. Crops rated poor to very poor rose by 6 points to 24% as cold temperatures and lack of snow coverage damage the crop.

  • In France, 2025 wheat plantings are up 10% on improved weather with 6.35 million hectares of winter grains planted for the 2025 harvest. This is up 7.2% from last year’s plantings.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-19 End of Day: Wheat Weakness Pressures Grains Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Spillover weakness from wheat dragged corn lower on Wednesday, knocking front-month futures back below the $5 mark.

  • Soybeans: Soybean meal futures held onto slight gains, while soybeans and soybean oil faced selling pressure throughout the session.

  • Wheat: Futures corrected from overbought territory today, easing concerns about winterkill along with weaker Matif wheat futures added pressure.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South America GRACE-Based root zone soil moisture drought indicator maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

  • Target Range Hit: Yesterday’s market strength pushed May ’25 to the upper end of the 495–515 target range, triggering a recommendation to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Hold: Given recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

  • Major Resistance at 479: December ‘25 faces strong resistance at 479. A decisive close above this level could signal broader upside potential as we move into the spring planting window.

  • Potential Call Option Strategy: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a possible call option recommendation. This strategy would hedge against existing sales while positioning you for upside exposure in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure from wheat weighed on corn Wednesday, pulling futures off early highs to close with moderate losses. The March contract’s failure to hold the $5 level could spark additional long liquidation as the market nears overbought conditions.

  • March corn options expire on Friday, which could bring some volatility as positions prepare for that trading deadline. The 500 level of March call is the largest area of open interest, and price may hold near that level.

  • Improved weather in Brazil is accelerating second-crop corn planting, though progress remains behind in key regions. This crop will compete directly with U.S. corn in the summer export market.

  • Strong demand continues to support old-crop corn, with exports and shipments well ahead of USDA targets. The market appears to be pricing in a lower carryout than the 1.54 billion bushels projected in the February USDA report.

Corn Bulls Charge Ahead, Eyeing $5 Breakout
Corn’s rally since harvest shows no signs of slowing, fueled by aggressive fund buying and steady demand. Strong technical support remains at 475, with an added safety net near the 450-breakout zone. Now, the market is locked in on the $5 mark—a pivotal resistance level that could open the gates for the next leg higher. With bullish momentum firmly in the driver’s seat, the question remains: can the bulls break through, or will the rally hit a wall?

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to sit tight for now on any additional sales.

2025 Crop:

  • New Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after falling from earlier morning highs. Wheat led the way in losses today bringing the entire grain complex lower apart from soybean meal. Soybean oil was down 1.14 cents to 46.15 cents in the March contract. Pressure has come from improving South American weather and Brazilian harvest.

  • In Brazil, conditions have improved for harvest, and the state of Parana is now estimated to be 40% harvested as of this Monday. This was up 7% from the previous week, and 78% of the state’s soybeans have been rated good, 19% average, and just 3% poor.

  • January’s NOPA crush came in at 200.38 million bushels, below the trade estimate of 204.5 mb and December’s 206.6 mb, but higher than last year’s 185.8 mb.

  • Yesterday’s inspections report sales of 720k tons of soybeans inspected for export compared to 1,097k the previous week and 1,292k a year ago. Primary destinations were China, Egypt, and Mexico.

Soybeans Eye Breakout After Repeated Tests
Front-month soybean futures are knocking on the door of the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A clean break above this level could ignite bullish momentum and signal a fresh leg higher. On any retreat, solid support is seen near $10, while initial resistance stands at $11, with a bigger hurdle looming near $11.40. The battle lines are drawn—will soybeans finally break free?

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures tumbled Wednesday, posting double-digit losses in Chicago and Kansas City, with Minneapolis not far behind. Technical correction played a role, as all three March contracts were overbought on daily stochastics. Easing winterkill concerns and a lower Matif wheat close added pressure.

  • Conditions for the winter wheat crop in Texas were released by the USDA, with 33% of the crop rated good to excellent, representing a decline of 3% from the previous figure. Additionally, the fair category fell 3% as well. The poor category was raised by 6% to 24%.

  • The new Egyptian state wheat buyer, Mostakbal Misr, is prepared to supply 2.7 mmt of wheat between January and the end of April to GASC. A reported 777,000 mt have already been received. These supplies will go towards Egypt’s national subsidized bread program. Egypt is a top global wheat importer, with the USDA estimating 12.5 mmt of imports during the 24/25 season.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop.

  • Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out with Force
Chicago wheat shattered its prolonged sideways grind with a powerful February surge, hitting key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. This decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average sets the stage for the MA to act as firm support on any near-term dips. Next upside targets loom near 650, with stronger resistance waiting in the 680-700 zone.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop on February 5 at 591.75 vs March ‘25.

  • No Official Targets: Following the latest sales recommendation, there are currently no active target ranges to make additional sales.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop.

  • Two Sales: Grain Market Insider advised two sales last week—one on Monday and another on Friday—as the July ’25 contract extended its rally for a fourth straight week.

  • Key Levels: The July ’25 contract is now just 4 cents below the September high of 653.75, marking a 99-cent rebound from the December low.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Ignites Rally Potential
Kansas City wheat futures launched into February with bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and challenging multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could spark a run toward the coveted 700 mark. On the flip side, the 200-day MA offers initial support, with a sturdier safety net resting near 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop on February 10.

  • Hold: Sit tight on making any additional sales for now given the recent recommendation.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Hold: No additional sales are recommended at this time, given the recent guidance.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout Confirmed
Spring wheat shook off its doldrums in late January, surging past its prolonged sideways range and flashing bullish signals. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average strengthens the breakout case. Initial support stands at the 200-day MA, with firmer footing near 615 — the top of the old range. On the upside, 650 is the first hurdle to clear before bulls set their sights on the elusive 700 mark.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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2-19 Midday: Grains Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 502.25 0.25
JUL ’25 519.5 1
DEC ’25 478.75 1.25
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1043.25 4.75
JUL ’25 1075 3.5
NOV ’25 1060.75 2.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 596.5 -8.25
JUL ’25 623 -7
JUL ’26 663 -4
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 620.75 -6.5
JUL ’25 644.25 -5.5
JUL ’26 675 -1.25
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 642.25 1.25
JUL ’25 669.75 0.5
SEP ’25 679 -0.5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6144 -2.75
Crude Oil
APR ’25 72.47 0.64
Gold
APR ’25 2944.6 -4.4

  • Corn prices trade higher at midday, supported by increased demand for U.S. corn and a new wave of buying driven by inflation concerns.

  • Recent rains and cooler temperatures have provided much-needed relief to drought-stressed corn crops in Argentina, with additional rainfall expected over the next 15 days in key growing regions.

  • Safrinha corn planting remains behind schedule but is expected to accelerate as ongoing dry weather facilitates progress in the soybean harvest.

  • The Thai feed mill industry is exploring the import of $2.8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural commodities, including a significant amount of corn, in an effort to bypass tariffs.

  • Soybeans trade higher at midday, along with corn. While soybean and soybean meal prices are gaining, soybean oil is trending lower. Traders worry if prices will hold up to growing harvest pressure in Brazil.

  • Continued dry weather in Brazil is helping advance the soybean harvest, although it remains behind schedule. Meanwhile, rains in southern Brazil and Argentina are slowing the crop decline, though heat and drought stress have already inflicted some irreversible damage.

  • A large Brazilian harvest is expected to slow U.S. soybean exports to China, with 72% of Brazil’s bean crop destined for the country, compared to 53% of the U.S. crop. U.S. exports are likely to decline this spring as China is expected to favor South American beans due to tariffs.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange states the core Argentine crop region production is expected to be down to 16.5 mt vs the early season estimates of 19.5.

  • Wheat prices trade lower at midday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and uncertainties surrounding weather conditions in major wheat-producing regions.

  • Well-below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Plains are expected to persist through Friday, with little to no snow in the forecast. Overnight temperatures are anticipated to drop to the -20s to -30s, raising concerns among traders about whether the current snow cover is sufficient to protect crops from potential winterkill damage.

  • Wheat markets continue to receive support from a recent uptick in import demand, along with persistent cold weather in both the Black Sea region and the U.S. Temperatures in Russia remain low, with little to no snow cover.

  • Reuters reported that Russian exporters will be able to deliver no more than 8.1 mmt of wheat by the end of the 2024/25 season, significantly below their permitted quota. The Russian government is allowing traders to export as much wheat as possible during the first half of the season, from July to February, but impose export restrictions through quotas in the second half.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-19 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 504.25 2.25
JUL ’25 520 1.5
DEC ’25 478 0.5
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1042.5 4
JUL ’25 1075.5 4
NOV ’25 1061.75 3.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 605.25 0.5
JUL ’25 630.5 0.5
JUL ’26 668.75 1.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 628.75 1.5
JUL ’25 651 1.25
JUL ’26 676.25 0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 644 3
JUL ’25 672.75 3.5
SEP ’25 682 2.5
S&P 500
MAR ’25 6143 -3.75
Crude Oil
APR ’25 72.51 0.68
Gold
APR ’25 2951.8 2.8

  • Corn is trading higher this morning and has broken out of its recent trade range and above the 5-dollar mark in the March contract. This is the highest level corn has been since the end of March 2024.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were strong with 63.4 mb of corn inspected for export. This was above the highest range of trade estimates and put year to date shipments at 546 mb.

  • Weather in South America has improved with more significant rains in Argentina and a mix of rain and sun in Brazil. The safrinha corn plantings in Brazil are estimated at 36% complete.

  • Soybeans are trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex. Disappointing NOPA crush and export inspections have not helped prices rally like corn and soybeans. Soybean meal is lower while oil is higher.

  • Yesterday’s inspections report sale 720k tons of soybeans inspected for export compared to 1,097k the previous week and 1,292k a year ago. Primary destinations were China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush came in at 200.38 million bushels for January which was down from the previous month’s  206.6 mb and was also below trade estimates. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day, and March Chicago wheat broke above the 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since the beginning of October.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were disappointing for wheat with 250k tons inspected compared to 570k the previous week and 420k a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, South Korea, and Panama.

  • The winter wheat crop in Texas was downgraded to just 33% good to excellent as of February 16. Crops rated poor to very poor rose by 6 points to 24% as cold temperatures and lack of snow coverage damage the crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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