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3-04 End of Day: Grain Markets Slide Amid Tariff Concerns and Trade Uncertainty

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended the day lower as tariff concerns and retaliatory measures weighed on the market. May corn futures are now testing key support near 450.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to five consecutive sessions following President Trump’s confirmation that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would proceed.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures continued their downward trend today alongside corn and soybeans as concerns over tariffs and a potential trade war weighed on the market.

  • To see the updated 8–14-day precipitation and temperature outlooks for the U.S. as well as the 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Unchanged Guidance: With the severity of this ongoing selloff and three February sales recommendations already in place, Grain Market Insider advises holding off on any additional old crop sales.

  • Catch-Up Opportunities: If you missed some or all of the February sales recommendations, watch for a retracement to 480–490 — approximately a 50%-62% recovery from the drop between the February high of 518.75 and today’s low of 442.50.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees. These options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended their decline as concerns over tariffs and retaliatory actions fueled additional long liquidation. May corn futures, at their session low, traded 76 cents below the most recent high from February 19.

  • May futures are now testing key support at the 450 level — if this level fails to hold, the market could be vulnerable to a further drop toward the August low of 420, as sellers maintain control.

  • U.S. tariffs of 25% for Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods were triggered last night as the potential for a trade war has increased. China countered with a 15% tariff on U.S. agriculture goods, including U.S. corn imports, and a 10% tariff on soybeans. In addition, China will stop receiving soybeans from three U.S. exporters. Mexico will announce a retaliatory plan on Sunday unless an agreement can be reached.

  • The impact of tariffs could curb demand as U.S. goods become more expensive for affected countries. However, other markets not involved in the tariff dispute may benefit from lower U.S. prices, especially with the U.S. dollar trending downward.

  • The market will be watching to see if demand picks up at these lower price levels. Demand has been the driver in the corn market, and old crop corn supplies remain tight until South American harvest later this spring into early summer.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Support for corn should hold near the 450 area. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Two sales recommendations were issued in January at 1047.50 and 1056.00. With those already in place — and the market down in seven of the last eight trading days — today’s guidance remains the same: hold off on any additional sales for now.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Grain Market Insider issued its first 2025 crop sales recommendation on January 29 at 1063.50. For now, there are no new recommendations — current guidance is to hold steady.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fifth consecutive day after President Trump announced that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would indeed go through. Funds continued to sell across the ag complex today, bringing May soybean futures to close below $10.00. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • In response to Trump’s announcement to double tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, China stated it would halt soybean imports from three U.S. entities, suspend lumber imports, and impose a 15% tariff on other U.S. agricultural products.

  • The USDA’s January soybean crush report showed 211.1 million bushels crushed, aligning with trade expectations but down 3% from December’s 217.7 million bushels.

  • StoneX is expected to cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean production, citing weather related issues that could hinder output. They maintain that the South American supplies will overwhelm the global market.

Soybeans Fall on Tariff Worries
Front-month soybean futures continued to test the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has limited gains for over 18 months. Improved weather conditions in South America and newly announced tariffs from the Trump Administration at the start of March triggered a sharp decline in prices. Support is expected around 1000, with stronger backing near recent lows of 950. If prices rebound, initial resistance is likely at 1030, with the 200-day moving average serving as a more significant hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes posted losses again today in tandem with corn and soybeans. The continued threat of tariffs and a trade war has pushed ag commodities lower so far this week. Most notably, China has pledged to retaliate with tariffs on US goods, including 15% on wheat imports.

  • Winter wheat crop condition updates showed mixed results across key states. Kansas improved by 4% to 54% good to excellent, while Texas declined by 3% to 34%. Colorado saw a notable 10% improvement, whereas South Dakota conditions fell by 9%.

  • According to Rusagrotrans, Russia’s wheat exports in February totaled 1.9 mmt, which is the lowest figure for that month since 2020. Furthermore, they are estimating March exports will be around 1.5-1.7 mmt, which would be the lowest March export figure since 2021.

  • In Australia, ABARES projected a 25/26 wheat harvest of 30.5 mmt, down 10% from the previous season but still 15% above the 10-year average. They also raised their estimate for the 24/25 harvest by 7% compared to their December report.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to continue to sit tight for now.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

2025 Crop:

  • Unchanged Guidance: For now, continue to hold steady—Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-04 Midday: Selloff in Grains Continue at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 443.5 -12.75
JUL ’25 452.5 -11.25
DEC ’25 442 -9.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 992.25 -19.25
JUL ’25 1007 -18.75
NOV ’25 997 -21.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 531.25 -16.5
JUL ’25 546 -15.25
JUL ’26 616 -5.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 542.75 -19.25
JUL ’25 557.75 -18.25
JUL ’26 614.25 -13
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 579.25 -12
JUL ’25 593.75 -10.25
SEP ’25 606.75 -9.75
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5810.5 -105
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 66.99 -1.07
Gold
JUN ’25 2947.3 18.1

  • Corn prices continue to fall at midday on pressure from the implementation of tariffs.

  • China announced a 15% tariff on U.S. corn in retaliation of the additional 10% tariff the U.S. placed on China.

  • Yesterday the USDA announced a sale of 114,000 mt of corn to Mexico for delivery in 24/25.

  • Corn used for ethanol in January totaled 457.4 mb, down 4.6% from December but up 3.7% from January 2024.

  • Soybean futures continue to trade lower at midday due to the ongoing trade war.

  • China announced they would impose a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans in retaliation of the U.S. tariffs on China. The country also announced they would halt soybean imports from U.S. companies, CHS, LDC, and EGT.

  • Soybean crush for the month of January was seen at 212.6 mb, up 9.4% from January 2024.

  • Wheat prices, much like the rest of the grain market, are weaker at midday. July Chicago futures look to trade lower for a seventh straight session.

  • U.S. winter wheat crop conditions have been updated as of March 2. Kansas and Oklahoma saw slight improvements by 4 and 1 points, respectively. Ratings were seen falling for Texas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

  • Russia’s February wheat exports came in at a 1.90 mmt, which is a 5-year low for the month.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-04 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower Following Confirmation of Tariffs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 451.5 -4.75
JUL ’25 459 -4.75
DEC ’25 449.25 -2

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1000 -11.5
JUL ’25 1014.75 -11
NOV ’25 1006.75 -12

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 542.75 -5
JUL ’25 557 -4.25
JUL ’26 619.75 -1.5

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 556.75 -5.25
JUL ’25 570.75 -5.25
JUL ’26 627.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 587 -4.25
JUL ’25 601.75 -2.25
SEP ’25 614.75 -1.75

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5891.25 -24.25

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 67.07 -0.99

Gold

JUN ’25 2958.8 29.6

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after President Trump confirmed the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after much speculation. This is particularly bearish for corn as Mexico is the top importer of US corn. May futures are now trading below their 200-day moving average and have lost 70 cents from their recent high.

  • US corn used for ethanol came in at 457.4 million bushels in January which was below December but up 3.7% from January 2024.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 1.351m tons of corn inspected for export which was on the higher range of trade estimates and was above last week’s and last year’s inspections.

  • Soybeans are trading lower again this morning and are on track for a fifth consecutively lower close after China has said they would continue retaliating to US tariffs. May corn has fallen back below the 10-dollar mark, and both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.

  • After President Trump said that the US would double its tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, China said it would halt the import of soybeans from three US entities and lumber from the US. They also placed 15% tariffs on other US agricultural goods.

  • StoneX is expected to cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean production citing weather related issues that could hinder output. They maintain that the South American supplies will overwhelm the global market.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex in response to the fresh tariffs. The US also exports wheat to Mexico in addition to corn. May corn futures are now just 3 cents off their contract lows.

  • US winter wheat crop conditions were updated as of March 2, and Kansas and Oklahoma saw good to excellent ratings improve by 4 points and 1 point respectively. Crop conditions fell in Texas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

  • The US inspected 389.6k tons of wheat which was on par with last week’s inspections but higher than those of a year ago. Primary buyers were Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-03 End of Day: Tariff Concerns Send Grains Lower Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures extended their decline on Monday as ongoing tariff concerns likely fueled continued fund liquidation.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to four sessions, breaking below the 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower, with soybean oil leading the decline.

  • Wheat: Wheat fell to start the week alongside other commodities, weighed down by tariff concerns and lower Matif wheat futures.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the week two GFS precipitation forecast anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Steps up, Elevator down: The front-month contract climbed from 459.50 on January 2 to a high of 518.75 on February 19 — a steady 32-trading-day ascent. But in just 8 trading days, it tumbled back down to today’s close of 456.25. With such a sharp selloff from the high, the state of the broader uptrend from the August low is now in question.

  • Resistance Concerns: At the start of February, Grain Market Insider flagged the heavy historical resistance clustered between 495–515 and made three sales recommendations on: February 4 at 494.50, February 18 at 512, and February 20 at 512.75.

  • Hold: Given the severity of the recent selloff and the three prior sales recommendations, the guidance remains to hold off on making any additional old crop sales.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market. 

  • Potential Put Options: Tomorrow or Wednesday, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw a fourth day of selling pressure as concerns regarding tariffs and fund liquidation pressured the corn market. The weakness today erased all gains in the corn market for 2025 as the May contract closed at its lowest point since December 26.

  • Managed funds have been aggressively selling their net long positions. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed a reduction of 16,000 net long contracts as of February 25, and estimates suggest an additional 60,000-70,000 contracts have been liquidated since then. The selloff extends beyond grains, affecting the broader agricultural commodity market as funds react to trade uncertainties.

  • The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports remain scheduled to take effect on March 4. Negotiations between the three countries continue, with the possibility of a resolution. Mexico, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, could retaliate with tariffs or reduce purchases, adding uncertainty to the market.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Mexico purchased 114,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. This was the first published corn sale since February 14.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday afternoon. For the week ending February 27, US exporters shipped 1.351 MMT (52.6 mb) of corn. This total was near the top end of market expectations. Mexico was the top importer of U.S. corn during the week. Total shipments have a total of 1.073 bb, up 32% from last year and ahead of the pace to reach the USDA marketing year targets.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Trendline support should come in near 470, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 16,079 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net long 337,454 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Range Breakout: Since January 13, the front-month continuous contract has traded sideways, mostly between 1066 and 1024. But today’s selloff pushed the May contract well below that 1024 lower boundary, closing at its lowest level since January 9.

  • No New Recommendations: Two sales recommendations were issued back in January at 1047.50 and 1056.00. With those already in place — and the market down in six of the last seven trading days — today’s recommendation is to continue to hold off on making any additional sales.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • No New Recommendations: Grain Market Insider issued its first 2025 crop sales recommendation on January 29 at 1063.50. For now, there are no new recommendations — current guidance is to hold steady. 

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the fourth consecutive day in risk-off trade today that saw May futures break significantly below the 100-day moving average. Pressure has come from uncertainty over looming Chinese tariffs and potential retaliation on U.S. agricultural goods. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil posted the larger losses.

  • President Trump was expected to place 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico tomorrow, but he just posted that the tariffs would go into effect on April 2 amid likely ongoing negotiations with the two countries. China, however, is not expected to negotiate and there have been talks that China would place retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods if Trump doubled the Chinese tariffs to 20%.

  • The USDA released the January soybean crush numbers today, which came out to 211.1 million bushels. This was right in line with the average trade estimates but has slowed from December by 3% when crush came in at 217.7 mb.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 25.5 million bushels for the week ending February 27. This was within trade expectations but was below last week’s inspections. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.381 bb, up 10% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 8,317 contracts lowering their net long position to 8,209 contracts. They were sellers of both soybean meal and oil by 10,420 and 6,200 contracts respectively.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,317 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net long 8,209 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, wheat futures continued to struggle, closing lower alongside most agricultural commodities. A lack of supportive news and a lower close for Matif wheat added pressure. The primary market concern remains the potential for U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada set to take effect tomorrow. Additionally, proposed tariff increases on China have raised fears of retaliatory measures, including reduced U.S. agricultural imports.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 14.3 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 574 mb, which is up 20% from last year. This is in line with the USDA’s estimated pace; wheat exports for 24/25 are estimated at 850 mb, also up 20% from the year prior.

  • According to India’s meteorological department, much of their nation is expected to see heat waves through May 31. Additionally, it was reported that the month of February was their second warmest since 1901. The threat of above normal temperatures could ultimately reduce their wheat yields.

  • Friday afternoon’s CFTC data indicated that managed funds increased their net short position in Chicago wheat by 10% to 67.6K contracts as of February 25. With the continued downtrend in the market, it is likely that the short position has grown further over the past few sessions.

2024 Crop:

  • 2025 Rally Is Gone: The front-month continuous contract has slipped back into negative territory for the year, closing below the December 31 close of 551.50. Over the last nine trading days, there’s been just one up day.”

  • Hold: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,037 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 67,614 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Six Straight Down Days: The front-month contract has closed lower for six consecutive trading days, with just one up day in the last nine. The December 31 close was 559.25, and today’s low saw the May contract trade down to 558.50.

  • No Actionable Recommendations: For now, continue to hold steady — Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 560, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 755 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 21,335 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • 2025 Rally Is Gone: The front-month contract has closed lower for nine straight trading days, slipping into negative territory for the year as May closed below the December 31 mark of 595.75.

  • No Actionable Recommendations: For now, continue to hold steady — Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,634 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 5,209 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-03 Midday: Grains Continue Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 459 -10.5
JUL ’25 465.75 -10
DEC ’25 450.75 -4.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1009.75 -16
JUL ’25 1024.25 -15.75
NOV ’25 1016.75 -12.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 551.5 -4.25
JUL ’25 564.75 -4.5
JUL ’26 622.5 -3.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 565.75 -7.25
JUL ’25 579.5 -6.5
JUL ’26 632 -2
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 593.25 -4.5
JUL ’25 606.5 -4.5
SEP ’25 619.25 -4
S&P 500
JUN ’25 6015.75 -3.75
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 68.91 -0.43
Gold
JUN ’25 2925.9 49.8

  • Corn futures are lower at midday, continuing on last week’s market weakness.

  • If futures fail to rebound by today’s close, this would mark the seventh straight session of declines.

  • Favorable weather persists in South America following a weekend of beneficial rainfall. In Brazil, second-crop corn planting in Mato Grosso reached 85% completion last week, slightly ahead of the five-year average.

  • Soybean futures are lower at midday and on pace for their fourth consecutive day lower.

  • Weekend rains in Argentina provided much-needed relief, adding pressure to the market as the new week begins.

  • The IMEA reported soybean harvest for Mato Grosso was 82% complete as of late last week, this is five percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

  • Wheat futures are slightly lower at midday after last week’s massive drop in prices.

  • Threat of tariffs with both Mexico and Canada, set to begin on Tuesday, are continuing to weigh on futures to start the week.

  • A mostly warm and dry pattern is expected to be in place over both the U.S. Plains as well as the Black Sea region over the coming week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-03 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Lower, Wheat Higher to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 466 -3.5
JUL ’25 472.25 -3.5
DEC ’25 453 -2

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1024.25 -1.5
JUL ’25 1038.25 -1.75
NOV ’25 1028.75 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 557.25 1.5
JUL ’25 571.5 2.25
JUL ’26 625.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 574.25 1.25
JUL ’25 587.5 1.5
JUL ’26 634 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 599.5 1.75
JUL ’25 613.25 2.25
SEP ’25 626 2.75

S&P 500

JUN ’25 6055 35.5

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 69.53 0.19

Gold

JUN ’25 2912.7 36.6

  • Corn is trading lower this morning and continues it’s freefall with the March contract losing 55 cents since the recent high two weeks ago. The USDA’s estimate of more planted corn acres accelerated this sell-off.

  • Brazil is reportedly considering lowering corn ethanol import taxes in a bid to soothe relations with the US and improve the local popularity of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Nothing is set in stone, but the conversations will continue over the coming days.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn as of February 25 selling 16,079 contracts which left them with a net long position of 337,454 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning as prices continue to slide putting the May contract below the 100-day moving average. The anticipation of lower planted acres this year has not been enough to offset poor demand. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.

  • It is being reported that China may hit back at the US with their own set of tariffs after President Trump pledged to double Chinese tariffs to 20%. China’s potential retaliatory tariffs would be on food and agricultural products.

  • Estimates for today’s January soybean crush is expected at 211.1 million bushels and would be down from 217.7 mb the previous month.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 8,317 contracts lowering their net long position to 8,209 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading higher to start the week as it attempts to avoid a sixth consecutively lower close. Wheat is nearing the end of its dormancy state, and this Wednesday’s USDA report will give updates on the wheat conditions.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 6,037 contracts leaving them net short 67,614 contracts. Funds were buyers of KC wheat by 755 contracts leaving them short 21,335 contracts.

  • IKAR has reduced Russia’s wheat exports by 500,000 tonnes to 42.5 mt this season citing currency fluctuation causing the reduction in the estimates for exports.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-28 End of Day: Grain Freefall Continues Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures tumbled again to end the week, with corn marking its sixth consecutive lower close.

  • Soybeans: Weak export sales, Brazilian harvest pressure, and declines in corn and wheat prices weighed on soybeans to end the week.

  • Wheat: Improved weather in the Plains and continued weakness in corn prices pressured wheat futures lower on Friday. Wheat has now closed lower in seven of the last eight trading sessions.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the updated U.S. drought monitor, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Wicked Monthly Bar: Six consecutive down days to close the month have dramatically altered the charts. The monthly chart now has a major bearish reversal, with today’s May close sitting 49.25 cents below the February high of 518.75 on the front-month continuous contract.

  • Resistance Concerns: At the start of February, Grain Market Insider flagged the heavy historical resistance clustered between 495–515 and made three sales recommendations on: February 4 at 494.50, February 18 at 512, and February 20 at 512.75.

  • Hold: Given the severity of the recent selloff and the three prior sales recommendations, the guidance remains to hold off on making any additional old crop sales.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Potential Put Options: Next week, as we enter March, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against downside risk on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Active Window: As we enter March next week, the window opens for the first 2026 corn crop targets to emerge at any time. Stay tuned!

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The end of the month of February saw strong selling pressure and long liquidation in the corn market as prices post sharp losses. The May contract lost 35 ½ cents on the week and closed at its lowest levels since January 9. Corn prices have dropped nearly 50 cents off the high from last week.

  • The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports remain scheduled to take effect on March 4. Negotiations between the three countries continue, with the possibility of a resolution over the weekend. Mexico, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, could retaliate with tariffs or reduce purchases, adding uncertainty to the market.

  • Managed money entered the week with a near-record long position, leaving the market vulnerable to a correction. Seasonal trends and an overbought market triggered this week’s sell-off, leading to a sharp loss of momentum.

  • December 2025 corn futures hit their lowest level since January 17 today, pressured by expectations of larger U.S. corn acres for the 2025-26 marketing year, as outlined in the USDA Outlook Forum.

  • Despite the downturn, corn demand remains strong, with exports and ethanol production providing support. The recent price drop should help sustain demand as U.S. corn remains competitively priced on the global market.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Trendline support should come in near 470, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Similar Monthly Bar as Corn: While soybeans saw less volatility than corn in February, the outcome was much the same. A monthly bearish reversal bar also formed on the front-month continuous chart, with the May contract closing 54 cents below the 1079.75 high.

  • Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations.

2025 Crop:

  • No Changes: The current upside target range remains 1090 – 1125 vs November ‘25.  

  • It’s Still Early: Grain Market Insider has issued only one sales recommendation for the 2025 crop so far, but there’s still plenty of time. Soybeans often present later seasonal selling opportunities than corn.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium.  If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring at the earliest.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day despite a friendly acreage number from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum yesterday as poor export sales, Brazilian harvest, and general bearishness weigh on the grain market. Soybean meal was unchanged in the front months but lower in the deferred contracts while soybean oil led the complex lower.

  • On March 4, President Trump is expected to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after previously delaying them by 30 days. While further negotiations could postpone the tariffs again, the uncertainty is likely to keep the market volatile.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 31-1/2 cents while November soybeans lost 30-1/4. May soybeans lost $3.70 to $300.20 and May soybean oil lost 3.22 cents to 44.12 cents. For the month, May soybeans lost 31-3/4, May soybean meal lost $9.40, and May soybean oil lost 2.40 cents.

  • Since the bullish January WASDE report that saw soybean yields cut by 1 bpa, soybean futures have lost nearly 75% of their gains. Declining export demand has been a large factor with declining numbers since Brazil has begun exporting their crop at a more competitive rate. Support could come later in the year if dry weather continues into planting coupled with fewer soybean acres planted.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • At the risk of sounding like a broken record, wheat closed lower again today. Kansas City futures were the downside leader. Another move higher for the US Dollar and continued tariff talk did not help the situation. Paris milling wheat futures did close slightly positive, which may signal that wheat is nearing a bottom after several sessions of long liquidation.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry decreased their wheat export tax by 21% to 2,178 Rubles to mt, through March 11. However, the Russian wheat export quota that went into effect earlier this month still offers some hope for support in the wheat market.

  • Warmer temperatures are expected across the U.S. Southern Plains early next week, with a storm system likely to bring beneficial rainfall. This could aid winter wheat emergence from dormancy and may have contributed to the weakness in Kansas City wheat futures.

  • According to the European Commission, 24/25 grain production in the EU will fall from 255.8 mmt to 255.2 mmt in their latest estimate. Soft wheat production in particular was revised down 0.1 mmt to 111.8 mmt.

  • French soft wheat conditions as of February 24 declined 1% from the week prior to 73% good to very good. For reference, this is above the 68% rating for the same time a year earlier.

  • Ukraine’s ag ministry has said that total grain exports since the season began on July 1 have reached about 29 mmt. This is 1% below last year, for the same timeframe. Wheat exports, however, were up 3% year over year at 11.9 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Gravestone Doji: Unfortunately, Chicago Wheat posted the worst monthly close among all grain markets. On the front-month continuous chart, the May contract formed a Gravestone Doji, a bearish reversal pattern where the closing price nearly matches the opening price for the month — a signal of potential further weakness.

  • Seven: The May contract closed 66 cents below its monthly high and has now finished lower in seven of the last eight trading sessions.

  • Hold: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

2024 Crop:

  • Positive Month: Kansas City wheat was the only grain to finish February in positive territory on the front-month continuous chart. Though modest, the May contract posted a 6.75-cent gain for the month.

  • Hold: Despite the monthly gain, the May contract has closed lower in seven of the last eight sessions and is now 69.50 cents below its February high. Given this pullback, the guidance remains to pause any additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Breaks Lower Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 560, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.

2024 Crop:

  • Bearish Reversal: The front-month contract ended February with a bearish reversal, closing the month down 4.75 cents and 61.75 cents below its monthly high.

  • Hold: With the May contract closing lower for eight consecutive sessions, the guidance remains to pause any additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-28 Midday: Grains Turn Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 454.25 -10.5
JUL ’25 476.75 -10
DEC ’25 455.5 -6.25
Soybeans
MAR ’25 1014 -8.75
JUL ’25 1041 -11
NOV ’25 1030.5 -11.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 545.75 -1
JUL ’25 573 -3.75
JUL ’26 638.5 4.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 566.25 -5
JUL ’25 589.25 -8.25
JUL ’26 638.5 -4
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 589 2
JUL ’25 613.75 -4.5
SEP ’25 628 -2.75
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5896.75 20.5
Crude Oil
APR ’25 69.66 -0.69
Gold
APR ’25 2860.6 -35.3

  • At midday, corn prices dropped as rains in South America alleviated some of the drought stress on crops, coupled with the confirmation of the tariff start date.

  • The corn market remains volatile and under pressure after President Trump confirmed yesterday that tariffs will not be delayed and are set to take effect on March 4. Traders, however, remain skeptical about the implementation date, as negotiations are ongoing through the weekend.

  • The Outlook Forum kept ethanol projections unchanged for the 2025/2026 season, while lowering exports by 50 million bushels. U.S. corn plantings are expected to increase by 3.8%, reaching 94 million acres in 2025, compared to 90.6 million acres in 2024.

  • Argentina’s corn harvest has started and is 5.4% complete. Crop conditions improved by 3% last week, with 21% of the corn now rated as good/excellent.

  • Soybeans turned lower at midday across the entire soy complex as the market remains under pressure from tariff concerns and expectations of a record crop in Brazil.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 20,000 tons of US soy oil for delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 year.

  • Brazilian soybean prices are significantly lower than those in the U.S., with newly harvested beans now available. China continues to cancel previously purchased U.S. beans in favor of the cheaper South American supply.

  • Argentina’s soybean crop conditions rose 7% last week to 24% of the crop now good/excellent as weather conditions improve in the area.

  • Wheat trades lower at midday as global supply increases and export challenges are expected to persist.

  • Wheat exports are projected at 850 mb for the 2025/2026 marketing year, unchanged from the current year. The U.S. is expected to face competition from other wheat suppliers, including Russia. USDA’s Chief Economist noted that the U.S. is likely to continue experiencing export challenges in the 2025/2026 year.

  • Weather in the eastern Corn Belt over the next five days is expected to bring increased moisture, while the western plains will remain dry. Yesterday’s drought monitor continues to show dry conditions across much of the plains, which could stress the wheat crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-28 Opening Update: Grains Trading Slightly Higher After Yesterday’s Sell-off

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’25 466 1.25
JUL ’25 487.25 0.5
DEC ’25 461.75 0

Soybeans

MAR ’25 1028.75 6
JUL ’25 1054.25 2.25
NOV ’25 1042.75 1

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’25 546.75 0
JUL ’25 580.75 4
JUL ’26 636.5 2.75

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’25 572 0.75
JUL ’25 599.75 2.25
JUL ’26 642.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’25 589 2
JUL ’25 622 3.75
SEP ’25 633.5 2.75

S&P 500

MAR ’25 5891.5 15.25

Crude Oil

APR ’25 69.36 -0.99

Gold

APR ’25 2875.9 -20

  • Corn is mixed to start the day with gains in the front months but losses in deferred contracts as trade now expects a large planted acreage number in corn this year. May corn is now 37 cents off last week’s high.

  • As of last Friday’s CFTC report, funds were long around 355,000 contracts of corn, but over the past 5 days, they are estimated to have sold 50,000 contracts with 24,000 sold just yesterday.

  • The USDA has estimated that 94 million acres of corn will be planted this year which would compare to 90.6 ma last year. This would increase ending stocks to 1.965 bb compared to 1.540 bb in 24/25.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday the USDA estimated soybean planted acres lower than last year. Weather in South America continues to improve and soybeans continue to be sold more cheaply than US beans.

  • Yesterday, weekly soybean sales came in at 415k tons compared to 500k tons the previous week. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • The USDA Annual Outlook Forum projected 2025 soybean planted acreage at 84.4 million acres—down 2.7 million from 2024. While not official, these figures will serve as a baseline until the end of March when the planting intentions report is released.

  • Wheat is trading higher to start the day after a sharp sell-off yesterday that saw prices down as much as 19 cents. Pressure came from the USDA’s estimate that 47 million acres of wheat would be planted this year.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales falling to 274k tons as of February 20 which was down from 631k tons the previous week. Top buyers were Taiwan, Mexico, and Japan.

  • IKAR has reduced Russia’s wheat exports by 500,000 tonnes to 42.5 mt this season citing currency fluctuation causing the reduction in the estimates for exports. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-27 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Following Reports of Tariff Implementation

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures closed lower today, driven by weak export sales and the news of impending tariffs from Canada and Mexico, which added further pressure on the market.

  • Soybeans: After starting the day higher, soybeans ultimately closed lower, pressured by declines in the corn and wheat markets.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures experienced significant losses across all three classes, driven by the rise in the US Dollar Index and reports of tariffs set to begin next week.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: Following last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice is to pause making any additional sales for now.

  • Top or Correction? – The May contract has seen a notable pullback, closing lower in six of the last seven sessions and now sitting 38 cents below its recent high. While this could be a healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend, the nature of the recent selloff raises some concerns. Is this just a pause, or a sign of a bigger shift? Stay alert for further signals.

2025 Crop: 

  • Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.

  • Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.  

  • Potential Put Options: Next week, as we enter March, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against downside risk on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.

2026 Crop: 

  • Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures faced strong selling pressure on Thursday due to soft export sales, the USDA Outlook Forum, First Notice Day, and the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. March corn futures closed at their lowest level since the January WASDE report.

  • The USDA outlook for gave baseline projections for corn acreage for the 2025-26 marketing year on Thursday morning. The USDA feels that U.S. producer could plant 94 million acres of corn in the next marketing year. This was up 3.4 million for 2024-25. The increased acres could push early carryout projection toward 2.0 billion for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • Weekly corn export sales were disappointing this week. For the week ending February 20, the USDA reported new sales of 795,000 mt, below the low end of analysts’ expectations. The market may be concerned about slowing demand due to higher corn prices and the approaching harvest of South American corn. Total sales are still running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, slightly down from 29% last week.

  • President Trump announced that the 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, scheduled to take effect on March 4, will proceed as planned. Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. corn, and the market is concerned about the potential for retaliatory tariffs or a loss of demand. Additionally, President Trump revealed a 10% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods, also set to be activated on March 4.

  • The Buenos Aires grain exchange saw the Argentina corn crop conditions improve last week and rainfall has turned more beneficial. Corn conditions rose to 21% Good/Excellent, up 3% over last week’s total.  Weather forecasts remain wet for key growing regions, which should help support the crop.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: With recent sales recommendations in place, the guidance is to pause additional sales for now, as the May contract has closed lower in four of the last five sessions.

  • Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

  • Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.

  • Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after starting higher, fading into the close under pressure from corn and wheat, which led the market lower. This morning’s acreage report from the USDA was supportive for soybeans. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal posting the larger losses.

  • This morning, the USDA Ag Outlook Forum released its estimates for the 2025 planted acres, and for soybeans, they are estimating 84.0 million acres. This would be down from last year’s 87.1 ma as the USDA assumes that acres will be given to corn. This would put ending stocks at 320 million bushels.

  • Today’s export sales report showed another week of disappointing soybean sales. The USDA reported an increase of 15.1 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 35.7 mb were above the 17.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • On March 4, it is expected that President Trump will enact 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after pushing the tariffs off 30 days ago. While it is possible that further negotiations could delay these tariffs again, the market will likely be volatile until it is confirmed.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures took a hit today, posting sharp losses across all three classes. Traders’ focus was on the USDA’s remarks, but a sharp rise in the US Dollar Index, a lower close for Paris milling wheat, and declines in corn and soybeans all weighed negatively on the wheat market. Additionally, reports indicate that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin next week, adding further pressure to the grain markets.

  • At the USDA Outlook Forum today, 2025 wheat acreage was estimated at 47 million, an increase of 0.9 million from last year. Additionally, the trendline yield of 50.1 bpa would result in a production estimate of 1.926 bb and ending stocks of 826 mb. While these numbers were largely in line with expectations, the absence of supportive news contributed to the negative price action today.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 9.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.9 mb fell under the 20.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 850 mb. Sales commitments at 733 mb for 24/25 are up 10% from last year, which is behind the USDA estimated pace.

  • IKAR has reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports for 24/25 by 0.5 mmt to 42.5 mmt. Additionally, their range of production estimates declined. In a normal scenario, they project wheat production to decline from 82 to 81 mmt. Under optimal conditions, their estimate has been reduced from 87 to 85 mmt. In a negative scenario, their forecast remains unchanged at 77 mmt.

  • On a bullish note, above-average temperatures are forecasted for India in March, which could potentially reduce wheat yields as the crop matures. After three consecutive years of poor yields, India may need to import wheat if the 2025 harvest is not abundant.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has now closed lower in six of the last seven sessions and is down about 60 cents from its recent high already. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Surges Past Resistance
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average now positions it as a potential support level on any near-term pullbacks. The next upside targets are near 650, with stronger resistance in the 680-700 range.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower in six of the last seven sessions and is down about 57 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Signals Breakout Potential
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could fuel a rally toward the key 700 level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average provides initial support, with stronger backing around 575.

2024 Crop:

  • Hold: The May contract has closed lower for seven consecutive sessions and is down about 55 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on making additional old crop sales for now.

  • Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

  • No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.

  • Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Confirms Breakout
Spring wheat broke free from its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforces the breakout, with initial support at the 200-day MA and stronger backing near 615 — the top of the previous range. On the upside, 650 is the next key resistance before bulls target the elusive 700 level.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.