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10-16 End of Day: Corn, Soybeans Advance; Wheat Closes Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Thursday’s corn session ended higher for the third consecutive day, supported by news regarding China.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher across the entire soy complex, supported by bullish NOPA crush data released yesterday.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat finished mixed, with some downward pressure stemming from a weaker MATIF wheat close.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

  • The release of new export data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher for the third consecutive session on Thursday. Technical buying, along with talk of an extension to China’s tariff exemption deadline, helped push prices to test resistance levels above the market. December futures gained 5 cents to 421 ¾ and March added 3 ¼ to 435 ½.

  • Corn futures rallied to resistance just over the 420 level, which held upward momentum for the session. Friday and Monday trade may be key to price action if the market sees additional technical buying strength.

  • Grain markets found buying support on talk of an extension to China’s tariff relief deadline. Rhetoric has intensified this week, with a mix of both optimistic and cautious commentary as the meeting between President Trump and President Xi approaches at the end of the month.

  • Daily ethanol production for the week ending October 10 averaged 1.074 million barrels. This was a new high daily production for that week of the year. A total of 107 MB of corn was used in the production process, which is just below the total needed to reach the USDA market year target

  • Corn harvest pressure may continue to act as a limiting factor for the market. Producers are moving into the final two-thirds of harvest, and a steady flow of fresh bushels is making its way into the pipeline.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher thanks to bullish NOPA crush data yesterday but backed off from highs earlier in the day. November soybeans gained 4-1/4 cents to $10.10-3/4 while March gained 4 cents to $10.43-3/4. December soybean meal was up $1.00 to $276.90 and December soybean oil was up 0.07 cents to 50.87 cents.

  • The NOPA crush report for September showed U.S. soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels, which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging, given Chinese absence.

  • Today, Secretary Rollins made multiple announcements regarding the ag sector and soybeans. She said that the U.S. was in talks with some South American nations over the possibility of crushing U.S. and other soybeans in South America. She also said that the U.S. was not waiting to reach a trade deal with China and would open up markets to other countries.

  • China has held off on large purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January delivery as a result of high Brazilian premiums. China still needs roughly 9 mmt of soybeans and could tap into state reserves to meet short-term needs.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close today; while Chicago finished higher, Kansas City settled on both sides of neutral, and Minneapolis MIAX futures posted small losses. December Chi gained 3-3/4 cents to 502-1/2, KC was up 1/2 cent at 488-3/4, and MIAX lost 1-1/2 cents to close at 549-1/2. Some pressure may have stemmed from a lower close for MATIF wheat futures; some contracts of which made new lows this session

  • Globally, Algeria is reported to have purchased about 400,000 mt of durum wheat, paying between $324-$334/mt on a CNF basis. Egypt has also reportedly bought two cargoes of wheat from France, paying $240/mt on a FOB basis. Additionally, there is talk that Egypt may be seeking Black Sea wheat too.

  • According to their Agriculture minister, Russia has harvested about 132 mmt of grain so far during the 25/26 season. Russia has kept their total grain harvest estimate steady at 135 mmt, of which wheat would account for 90 mmt. Additionally, grain exports this season are projected at 50 mmt.

  • Australia is set to see an increase in rainfall for the second half of this month. This should be beneficial for development of their wheat crop. Western Australia could remain drier than normal, but this is not currently a major concern for the crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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10-16 Midday: Grains Trade Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn prices are seeing a boost at midday, supported by a recent uptick in demand after Taiwan and South Korea purchased US corn. December corn futures are up 3-3/4 cents to $4.20-1/2 while the March contract is up 4-00 cents to $4.36-1/4.

  • LSEG estimates that Brazil’s new corn crop will reach 138.4 mmt, which was on par with CONAB’s estimate from earlier in the week. Both estimates are well above the USDA’s estimate of 131 mmt.

  • Rain showers are still scheduled for much of the Corn Belt through the end of the week, which will likely put harvest on pause. Corn harvest in the US is seen advancing towards 50% complete this week.

  • Soybeans are seeing some strength at midday after reports that a trade deal being struck with China is a “likely” outcome. November soybeans are up 10-1/2 cents to $10.17-00 and March futures are 10-3/4 cents higher to $10.35-00.

  • LSEG sees Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.6 mmt, which, if realized, would be a record. The group’s estimate was very similar to CONAB’s recent estimate of 177.64 mmt, and above the USDA’s estimate of 175 mmt.

  • NOPA crush for September came in at 197.86 mb, up 4.2% from the month prior and 11.6% higher from September 2024.

  • Wheat futures are higher at midday, supported by stronger corn prices and a drop in the US dollar. December Chicago futures are 3-1/4 cents higher to $5.02-00, December Kansas City is up 1-1/4 cents to $4.89-1/2 and December Minneapolis futures are unchanged at $5.51-00.

  • Recent export sales showed wheat sold to South Korea and Algeria yesterday. US competitiveness is a good sign at least in the short-term, but fundamentals still lean bearish as estimates see large global wheat supplies.

  • News is still light on the wheat side and could be subject to headline risks as many see President Trump shifting his attention to Russia and Ukraine to get a peace deal done after doing so with the Gaza peace deal.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-16 Opening Update: Grains Mixed This Morning With Soybeans Leading Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading quietly higher to start the day in more sideways action. December is up 1/4 cent to $4.17 and March is up 1/4 cent as well to $4.32-1/2. So far this week, corn has gained 4 cents.

  • Brazilian corn production for 25/26 is estimated between 128.9 and 148.2 mmt with an average guess of 138.4 mmt as strong demand drives the expansion of acreage. This estimate is above the USDA’s most recent guess of 131 mmt.

  • Estimates for this week’s ethanol production report see production higher than last week at 1.079 million barrels per day and stockpile estimates lower at 22.628m bbl bs 22.72m a week ago.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market found support in the 50-day moving average and October 1 low. The market was able to close above the 100-day moving average, which will now offer support.

  • Soybean futures are higher this morning following bullish crush numbers yesterday. November is up 4-1/2 cents at $10.11 and March is up 4-3/4 at $10.44-1/2. December soybean meal is up $0.30 to $276.20 and December bean oil is up 0.39 cents to 51.19 cents.

  • The NOPA crush report for September showed US soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging given Chinese absence.

  • China has held off on large purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January delivery as a result of high Brazilian premiums. China still needs roughly 9 mmt of soybeans and could tap into state reserves to meet short term needs.

Soybeans Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance and have since traded sideways as the market awaits additional information. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat down 2-1/2 cents to $4.96-1/4, KC wheat down 2-1/2 cents to $4.85-3/4, and Minn wheat down 3 cents to $5.48. Chicago is still 4 cents off its contract lows from earlier this week.

  • Russia reportedly sees their grain export potential for 25/26 at 50 mmt and has already harvested nearly 132 mmt of grain and 90 mmt of wheat with harvest 91% complete. Russia has also resumed exporting wheat to Indonesia after trade negotiations.

  • In Australia, rains are forecast to increase in the second half of October along with cooler temperatures through the next few weeks. This weather pattern will be favorable for wheat development.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-15 End of Day: Government Shutdown Adds Uncertainty, Leaving Grains Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn closed higher in midweek trading, supported by strong buying activity in the front-month contracts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the session modestly higher, with prices reacting to news from China and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat ended today’s session lower across all three classes, pressured by the absence of market-moving news to spark a rally.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher for the second straight session, following through after Tuesday’s gains. The corn market was led by buying strength in the front end of the market. December corn gained 3 ¾ cents to 416 ¾, and March futures added 3 cents to 432 ¼.

  • Bull spreading lifted the front end of the corn market on Tuesday, supported by weekly corn inspections showing a solid shipping pace. End users may be seeking additional supplies to meet export demand.

  • Increased precipitation outlook into the end of the month may slow corn harvest. Harvest was anticipated to be 44% complete and with good export demand, should help support the cash market.

  • France’s Agriculture Ministry raised its 2025 corn production estimate to 13.7 mmt, which is still 7.6% below last year’s. Reduced size of the French corn crop could help support demand for U.S. corn in the long term.

  • On-and-off trade tensions with China are keeping grain markets unpredictable. Corn and other grains are responding to headlines as they emerge during the trading day.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the remaining January 1040 puts for approximately 29 cents, minus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-half of the remaining January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to continue reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were unchanged to slightly higher to end the day in more quiet trade. President Trump’s tariff and trade threats to China have kept prices lower, along with the government shutdown and lack of data. November was unchanged at $10.06-1/2 while March was up ¼ cent to $10.39-3/4. December meal was up $1.60 to $275.90 and December bean oil was up 0.23 cents to 50.80 cents.

  • The U.S. announced it may provide an additional $20 billion in financing to Argentina to ‘help our neighbors.’ The Argentine peso fell slightly on the news, which could make Argentine grains more affordable for importing countries.

  • Soybeans have come under pressure following increased rhetoric from President Trump, including suggestions that tariffs on China could rise and that the U.S. may no longer need to buy soybean oil from China, potentially ending that trade.

  • In Brazil, soybean planting is reportedly 14% complete as of October 9, according to AgRural. This would compare to 9% last week and 8% at this time last year. This is the third fastest planting pace for the country on record for this time of year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Yesterday’s gains didn’t carry over into today, as wheat posted small losses across all categories. Although the market appears technically oversold, there hasn’t been any catalyst to trigger a short-covering rally. December Chi lost 1-1/2 cents to 498-3/4, KC was down 1/4 cent at 488-1/4, and MIAX closed 2-1/2 cents lower to 551.

  • South Korean flour mills were reported to have purchased 50,000 mt of U.S. wheat in a snap tender. South Korea is said to be seeking 95,000 mt of wheat from the U.S. and Canada on a separate tender.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, their 25/26 wheat export estimate outside of the European Union was kept unchanged at 7.85 mmt. However, exports within the EU were increased by 4.5% to 7.04 mmt.

  • The European Commission has said that EU soft wheat exports totaled 5.5 mmt between July 1 and October 12. This represents a 23% decline versus last year’s 7.1 mmt that was shipped.

  • Russia has reportedly restarted exports of wheat to Indonesia, after a 9-month hiatus. Indonesia is said to have renewed quarantine certificates to allow the imports of 52,000 mt in October. For reference, Indonesia imported 1.3 mmt of Russian wheat in 2024, compared with 123,000 mt so far this year.

  • The Ukrainian economy ministry reports that farmers have sown 2.8 million hectares of wheat through October 14. This is roughly 15% less than what was planted in a similar timeframe last year. Planted areas for barley and rapeseed also saw declines.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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10-15 Midday: Limited News Keeps Grains Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • By midday Wednesday, corn turned higher, although the lack of significant market-moving news limited the rally. December corn is up at 4.14½.

  • CONAB’s latest production estimate fell short of market expectations, suggesting a more modest output outlook. Meanwhile, export inspections declined 33.6% from the prior week but continued to outpace last year’s levels, up 119.7%.

  • Forecasts indicate a wetter trend moving into the central and eastern Corn Belt over the coming week, which may cause only slight disruptions to harvest progress. The 8–14 day outlook suggests a transition to drier conditions across the entire Midwest, accompanied by continued above-normal temperatures.

  • By midday, soybeans moved into positive territory as traders reacted to developments out of China. Amid the ongoing government shutdown, limited market news with a hint of optimism has been enough to trigger modest gains. November soybeans are at 10.07½, with the entire soy complex showing midday strength.

  • President Trump threatened to halt imports of Chinese cooking oil, a move traders viewed as supportive for U.S. soybean oil prices. China’s cooking oil exports to the U.S. are already down 65% year over year.

  • USTR representative Greer stated yesterday that it is up to China whether the 100% tariff will take effect on November 1, noting that discussions are ongoing to find a path forward following China’s unprecedented rare earth export controls. China’s increasingly aggressive stance is likely to keep soybean markets under pressure until there is a shift in tone or a Trump–Xi meeting is confirmed.

  • Wheat futures are lower at midday amid the ongoing government shutdown. With limited market-moving news, traders see little incentive to push prices higher. December wheat is down at 4.96 ½.

  • CONAB’s latest Brazil wheat report leaned slightly bearish, with higher yield projections and increased ending stocks versus a year ago, signaling improved supply conditions.

  • While export expectations were at the lower end of the projections, they remain 17% above last September, with marketing-year-to-date shipments up 18%.

  • LSEG maintained their production estimates for the EU, UK, and Australia, leaving them unchanged from the previous month.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-15 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower To Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower this morning following yesterday’s slight move higher in overall quiet trade. December futures are down 1-1/2 cents to $4.11-1/2 while March is down 1-3/4 to $4.27-1/2.

  • The US inspected 1,130k tons of corn for export as of October  which compared the 1,702k tons last week and 514k a year ago. A strong number, there will not be another report until the government is reopened.

  • The absence of key U.S. reports like the October WASDE, export sales, and CFTC added to bearish sentiment; Brazil corn futures also declined on a stronger real.  Trade estimates U.S. corn harvest at ~44% complete, with yields slightly below USDA’s 186.7 bpa; weaker feed demand could boost carryout toward 2.464 billion bu.

Corn Futures Seek Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market is currently probing lower in search of strong technical support.

  • Soybean futures are lower this morning with November down 3 cents to $10.03-1/2 and March down 1-1/2 cents to $10.22-1/2. December soybean meal is up $0.10 to $274.40 and December soybean oil is up 0.12 cents to 50.6 cents.

  • Pressure has hit the soybean complex as a result of increased rhetoric by President Trump that tariffs on China may increase, or as of yesterday that the US “does not need to purchase soybean oil from China” and considering terminating that business.

  • As of October  the US inspected 994k tons of soybeans for export which compared to 783k tons last week and 1,908k a year ago at this time. Year to date, inspections are down 26%.

Soybean Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat down 3-3/4 cents to $4.96-1/2, KC down 3 cents to $4.85-1/2, and Minn wheat down 1-1/2 cents to $5.52. Prices are 5 cents off yesterday’s contract low.

  • The US inspected 444k tons of wheat as of October 9 compared to 548k tons last week and 380k a year ago. Inspections are up 18.1% on the year.

  • Russia’s 2026 wheat acres are expected to be down 6%, and its current export pace is lagging USDA’s 45.0 mmt estimate, implying an active Oct-Jan export window is needed to meet the  goal. Trade estimates U.S. winter wheat plantings at 66% complete.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-14 End of Day: Grains Mixed – Wheat Leads Corn Higher, Soybeans Slip

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher, lifted by wheat and strong export inspections.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures settled quietly lower as the market continues to look for news regarding U.S.-China trade discussions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat rises following continued strength in the FGIS export inspections report.

  • USDA’s Crop Progress report has not been released due to the government shutdown. Updated figures will be provided when the shutdown ends.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended a three-day losing streak, finding some buying support from the wheat market, and export inspections to finish the day with positive December corn futures gained 2 ¼ cents to 413, and March added 2 cents to 426 ¼.

  • The FGIS released weekly export inspections on Tuesday morning, delayed from yesterday’s holiday. For the week ending October 9, U.S. exporters shipped 1.129 MMT (44.5 MB) of corn. This was down 470,000 mt (18.5 MB) from last week, and below market expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year are 3.1 MMT (122 MB) more than last year’s pace.

  • Corn harvest progress has been moving along at a nice pace. It was estimated that 44% of the crop was harvested by the end of last week. Increased precipitation in the forecast for the Corn Belt this week could slow harvest progress.

  • The Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, increased 2024/25 Brazilian corn output by 1.4 MMT to 141.1 MMT from 139.7 MMT forecast last month. A first look at 2025-26, Brazil is anticipated to raise 138.60 MMT of corn on increased planted acres.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the remaining January 1040 puts for approximately 29 cents, minus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-half of the remaining January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to continue reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day quietly lower but rebounded from earlier morning lows. November was down 1-1/4 cents to $10.06-1/2 and March was down ½ cent to $10.39-1/2. December bean meal was up $0.20 to $274.30 and December bean oil was down 0.03 cents to 50.57 cents.

  • Futures are still well below all major moving averages following President Trump’s threat of additional Chinese tariffs on Friday. China imported a near record amount of soybeans in September, but none from the United States. Export sales have been decent despite this.

  • With the government still shut down, no USDA reports are being released, but estimates for crop progress have been released. The soybean harvest is estimated to be 58% complete, which compares to a Reuters poll last week of 39%. Crop ratings are estimated to be unchanged from last week at 61%.

  • In Brazil, soybean planting is reportedly 14% complete as of October 9, according to AgRural. This would compare to 9% last week and 8% at this time last year. This is the third fastest planting pace for the country on record for this time of year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the session higher, led by Kansas City futures. This was likely a technical bounce, as wheat remains oversold, and there is not much in the way of fresh news. However, the U.S. Dollar Index did fall slightly today, temporarily easing pressure on the market. Dec Chi gained 3-1/2 cents to 500-1/4, KC was up 7-1/4 cents at 488-1/2, and MIAX closed 2 cents higher to 553-1/2.

  • Despite the government shutdown, traders did receive weekly export inspections data. Wheat inspections were pegged at 16.3 mb, bringing the 25/26 total inspections figure to 392 mb. This is up 18% vs last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from last year.

  • Southern Brazil has seen a pattern of excess rainfall, making things too wet. This could impact the quality of their wheat crop; harvest is just getting started. With that said, CONAB has increased their estimate of Brazilian wheat production by 2% to 7.7 mmt, versus the USDA figure of 7.5 mmt.

  • According to a Reuters poll of analysts, the average estimate of U.S. winter wheat planting progress is 66% complete. This would be up from last week’s guess of 50%. The official USDA data has not been released because of the government shutdown.

  • The French agriculture ministry has reduced their estimate of France’s soft wheat production by 0.1 mmt to 33.2 mmt. Nevertheless, if realized, this total would still be nearly 30% above last year’s troubled crop and more than 4% above the five-year average.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 565 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 567 to 565.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 620 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 620.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day maximum temperature outlook courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-14 Midday: Soybeans Remain Weaker at Midday, Corn and Wheat Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher at midday, supported by strong export inspections. December futures are up 1-1/4 cents to $4.12-00, while March futures are a penny higher to $4.28-1/4.

  • Conab estimates that Brazil’s corn production for the 2025/26 season will reach 138.60 mmt, up slightly from the group’s previous estimate of 138.28 mmt.

  • According to a Reuters survey, U.S. corn harvest is seen at 44% complete. Harvest could be on pause later this week as rainfall moves into the Corn Belt through the early part of this week.

  • U.S. export inspections for the week ending October 10 came in at 1.30 mmt, down from 1.701 mmt last week but up from the same week last year of 514k mt.

  • Soybeans remain lower at midday as optimism weakens regarding trade talks between the U.S. and China early next month. November soybeans are down 5-3/4 cents to $10.02-00, while January futures are 5-1/2 cents lower to $10.19-3/4.

  • According to Conab, Brazil’s soybean crop is seen at a record 177.64 mmt. If realized, this would be up nearly 6 mmt from last year’s production.

  • NOPA crush data for September is expected to be released on Wednesday. This will be one of the few data releases that will give the market some information to trade off while the government is still shut down.

  • U.S. export inspections for soybeans totaled 994k mt, which was on the high end of estimates. This compares to 783k mt last week and 1.908 mmt last year.

  • Wheat prices are firmer at midday, supported by a slight drop in the U.S. dollar and rising corn prices. December Chicago is up 3-1/2 cents to $5.00-1/4, December KC is up 5-1/2 cents to $4.86-3/4, and December Minneapolis is 1-00 cent higher to $5.25-1/2.

  • U.S. export inspections for wheat came in on the low end of estimates at 444k mt. This compares to 548k mt the week prior and 380k mt the same week last year.

  • According to a Reuters survey, winter wheat planting in the U.S. is seen at 66%. Ukraine’s sowing, much like the U.S., is seen at 62% sown.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-14 Opening Update: Grain Markets All Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1/4 cent to 410-1/2 and March futures are down 3/4 cent to 426-1/2.

  • Dalian corn futures hit new contract lows, pressured by expanding U.S. harvest and expectations that the final 30% of the U.S. harvest could strain storage and weigh on futures and basis.

  • The absence of key U.S. reports (October WASDE, export sales, CFTC) added to bearish sentiment; Brazil corn futures also declined on a stronger real.  Trade estimates U.S. corn harvest at ~44% complete, with yields slightly below USDA’s 186.7 bpa; weaker feed demand could boost carryout toward 2.464 billion bu.

Corn Futures Seek Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market is currently probing lower in search of strong technical support.

  • Soybean futures are lower this morning with November futures down 4-1/4 cents to 1003-1/2 and January futures down 4-1/4 cents to 1021.

  • The Nov/Jan spread widened to -18 as Dalian soy complex futures fell, pressured by lower crude oil and a lack of key U.S. reports, adding to bearish sentiment.

  • China’s new tariffs on U.S.-operated vessels increase the cost of U.S. soybeans, while U.S. harvest progress is estimated near 60% and some expect final yields below USDA’s 53.0 bpa.  Trade sees potential for U.S. soybean exports to fall 435 million bu short of USDA’s 1.685 billion bu estimate.

Soybean Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

  • Wheat futures are all lower this morning. December Chicago wheat futures are down 3-3/4 cents to 493. December KC wheat is down 3-1/2  cents to 477-3/4, and December MPLS wheat is down 1-1/4 to 5.5025.

  • The absence of the USDA October WASDE, export sales, and CFTC reports is bearish, with some expecting the missing data would have included upward revisions to Argentina, Russia, and Canada crops.

  • Russia’s 2026 wheat acres are expected to be down 6%, and its current export pace is lagging USDA’s 45.0 mmt estimate, implying an active Oct-Jan export window is needed to meet the  goal. Trade estimates U.S. winter wheat plantings at 66% complete.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-13 End of Day: Grains Mixed Following Renewed Optimism of U.S. – China Trade Relations

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures slipped lower as the market lacks the guidance typically offered USDA reports.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher following the announcement of continued U.S. – China trade negotiations.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat pressed lower following spillover weakness from corn and strong global production estimates.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week with additional selling pressure as the lack of information and ongoing harvest limit market gains. December corn traded lower for the third consecutive session, losing 2 ¼ cents to 410 ¾ and March slipped 1 ¾ cents to 427 ½.

  • The ongoing government shutdown limits the information to the market. The lack of USDA information has the market trading with uncertainty. Without information, the path of least resistance remains lower based off the supply picture and harvest pressure.

  • The FGIS will release the weekly Export Inspections report on Tuesday morning, delayed because of the Columbus Day holiday. Export inspections are expected to remain strong given the strong start to export sales for the marketing year.

  • The Brazil ag consulting group, Ag Rural, reported the first crop corn planting in Brazil has reached 45% complete as conditions remain overall favorable. This is a 4% jump from last year. Brazil’s first crop corn mainly goes to meet domestic demand for Brazil.

  • With soybean harvest winding down in some regions, producers are shifting their focus to corn harvest. Logistics may become more difficult as the market handles fresh supplies of a record corn harvest.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell half of the remaining January 1040 puts for approximately 29 cents, minus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to sell one-half of the remaining January ‘26 1040 puts has been added. This recommendation has been made to continue reducing the put position in a seasonally weak time period. This means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue providing downside protection.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended Monday’s session with gains following this morning’s announcement that the U.S.-China meeting is still on track. Traders remain optimistic that the meeting could lead to progress in resolving the trade war. Soybeans and soybean oil posted modest gains, while soybean meal experienced losses. November soybeans closed up 1-0 at 10.07-¾.

  • China purchased 12.87 million tons of soybeans in September, according to the General Administration of Customs, up 13.2% from 11.37 million tons a year earlier. This made September’s soybean imports the second-highest on record, according to Reuters, driven by strong purchases from South America, as trade tensions prevented any significant purchases from the United States.

  • As of Sunday, the U.S. soybean harvest is estimated at around 58% complete, slightly above the five-year average of 57%, but still behind last year’s pace of 64%.

  • Brazilian soybean plantings have advanced 5%, reaching 14% complete, well above last year’s pace of 8%. Rain over the past weekend benefited the beans already planted, and monsoon rains are expected to continue across Brazil. Improving soil moisture should support additional planting. CONAB is expected to release updated production estimates tomorrow. Estimates put planted area up 47.4 million ha to 49.1 million ha this season and production is anticipated to hit 179 million tons up from 171.5 million last year.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with small losses across all three classes. While a rise in the U.S. dollar today did not help, it did stay below Friday’s high, which may have limited the pressure on wheat. Without the support of the corn market and increasing global crop estimates, the U.S. wheat market remains under pressure. December Chicago lost 1-3/4 cents to 496-3/4, KC was down 1-3/4 to 481-1/4, and MIAX was down 1/4 at 551-1/2.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values fell $3 last week (versus the week before) to $229/mt. Additionally, IKAR is forecasting that Russian wheat exports in the month of October will surpass 4.5 mmt.

  • Analyst APK Inform has increased their estimate of Ukrainian 25/26 grain production to 59.1 mmt. Their wheat production estimate specifically was raised by 0.5 mmt to 22.4 mmt. This still falls just short of the USDA’s last projection at 23 mmt.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the 2025 Argentine wheat crop is rated 96% normal to excellent, and 30% of the crop is flowering. This coincides with increasing production estimates for the country last week as high as 23 mmt.

  • Globally, the wheat crop appears to be getting bigger. There is talk that Canada’s wheat production could reach a record high 40 mmt. Furthermore, recent good rains in Australia have boosted confidence in their wheat crop. Additionally, production figures were recently increased for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 593.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 593.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 593.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 593.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 567 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 575 to 567.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 622 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 622.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.