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8-28 End of Day: Positive Export Data Supports Corn and Wheat; Soybeans End the Day Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: The corn market wrapped up Thursday’s trade with gains, receiving support from strong weekly export sales that continue to show demand.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean prices closed mostly higher but were ultimately mixed, as ongoing concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions kept market sentiment cautious.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat finished the day with gains, finding support by a weaker U.S. dollar and a positive export report.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw a turn on the charts technically as the selling pressure from first notice day left the market, and prices reversed higher off the session lows. September corn finished 3 cents higher to 385 ½, while December futures added 4 cents to 410. December corn finished 6 ½ cents off the session low.

  • Corn futures traded on the session low and posted a bullish reversal on daily charts. The improved technical signal could bring additional buyer support, but follow-through price action will be key going into the Labor Day weekend.

  • Weekly corn export sales for corn stay supportive of the market. For the week ending August 21, old crop corn sales saw net cancellations of 18,000 MT (.7 mb) with the marketing year ending on August 31. New crop sales totaled 2.090 MMT (82.3 mb) and were near the top end of expectations. Mexico was the largest buyer of corn last week.

  • New crop corn sales totaling 82.3 mb for this week, this has total new crop corn sales at 739 mb, nearly double last year for this time window. Historically, only 2021 was off to a stronger start. If next week’s sales total over 66 mb, 2025-26 marketing year will surpass the 2012-22 marketing year.

  • U.S. and China trade are holding trade negotiations in Washington at the end of the week. Development of a trade deal or lack of progress could pressure markets on Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mostly higher with the September contract up 1 cent at $10.28-1/4 and the November contract up ½ cent at $10.48. October soybean meal was lower by $1.40 closing at $282.90 and October soybean oil was down by 0.77 cents at 51.95 cents. Pressure is coming from fears that China will not buy U.S. soybeans.

  • So far, China has made no new crop soybean purchases from the U.S., sourcing mainly from Brazil. As a result, basis in various parts of North Dakota that export through the PNW have seen basis fall between 1.50 and 1.80 under futures.

  • Today’s export sales report was decent for soybeans with a net cancellation of 7.0 million bushels for 24/25 but an increase of 50.4 mb for the 25/26 marketing year. Top buyers were Spain, Indonesia, and South Korea. Last week’s export shipments of 15.0 mb were below the 17.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • The USDA projected the national soybean yield at 53.5 bpa, while Pro Farmer estimated it at 53.0 bpa, and many traders think the actual number will be closer to 53.0. Weather has been drier than usual for August, but soil moisture levels were good enough coming into the month to maintain crop conditions.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher today, gaining 8 cents for September Chicago to 510-1/4. Meanwhile, September Kansas City was up 1-1/4 cents to 486-3/4 and September MIAX was up 4-1/4 to 555-1/4. A drop in the U.S. Dollar Index was supportive to the market. Additionally, today’s GDP report showed the economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in the April–June period, surpassing expectations and potentially providing additional support to the grain complex.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.3 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 36.9 mb, which was well above the 17.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 875 mb export goal. Wheat sales commitments now sit at 445 mb for 25/26, which is 23% up from last year.

  • Argus media has increased their estimate of Russian 25/26 wheat production to 86.1 mmt. This is up 1.3 mmt from their June estimate and compares to the USDA at 83.5 mmt. If realized, this would be the third largest Russian wheat crop on record. In addition, Argus also kept their estimate of French soft wheat production unchanged at 33.4 mmt.

  • This morning, Stats Canada released updated crop estimates. All wheat production was pegged at 35.55 mmt, which was below the average pre-report estimate of 35.9 mmt. However, this is still above the USDA forecast of 35 mmt. Of the total, spring wheat is expected to account for 26 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 651 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 656 target has been lowered to 651.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today. The first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider made for the 2026 crop was at 678.75. A second sale here today will bring the sales average price to approximately 654 vs September ‘26 futures.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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8-28 Midday: Grains Creep Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are slightly lower at midday, pressured by cheap South American product now that harvest is finished. December corn is down 1/2 to $4.05-1/2.

  • Weekly export sales for corn totaled 81 mb, which was on par with trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now sit at 2.774 billion bushels, up 26% from last year.

  • Despite potential disease threats to this year’s corn crop, LSEG has slightly increased corn production for the US to 415 mmt with yield at 185.4 bpa.

  • Soybeans are weaker at midday, pressured by increased yield estimates. November soybeans are trading 4-1/4 lower to $10.43-1/4.

  • Weekly export sales for soybeans were above expectations at 43 mb. Year-to-date commitments are up 11.6% from last year at 1.869 billion bushels.

  • LSEG has raised their US soybean production forecast to 117 mmt, up slightly from the USDA’s estimate of 116.82 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday, pressured by rising global production. December Chicago wheat is down 3-1/2 to $5.20-3/4.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 21 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 445 mb, up 23% from a year ago.

  • Argus has raised their wheat production forecast for Russia to 86.1 mmt, up from the group’s previous forecast in June of 84.8 mmt. If realized, this would be the third-largest wheat crop on record.

  • Statistics Canada has upped their all-wheat production estimate for Canada to 35.548 mmt. This is up from the August estimate in 2024 of 35 mmt but down from the final output of 35.9 mmt a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-28 Opening Update: Grains Mostly Unchanged to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading quietly on either side of unchanged with the September contract up 3/4 cent at $3.83-1/4 while December is unchanged at $4.06.

  • The ProFarmer tour brought up disease in the crop multiple times, and farmers who are finding corn rust are reporting heavy cases of it. This could cut effected yields by 20-40%.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 2,600k tons with an average guess of 1,917k. This would compare to 2,833k last week and 1,509k a year ago at this time.

Corn Futures Show Signs of Life: With the front-month roll from September to December, corn has shown renewed strength. Prices rallied to close last week above the 50-day moving average, a constructive signal. Early this week, corn filled the post–July 4th gap near 413, with the next upside target seen at the gap near 430. On the downside, the 50-day average serves as initial support, while a break could expose the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower with the September contract down 3/4 cent at $10.26-1/2 while November is unchanged at $10.47-1/2. October soybean meal is up $0.30 to $284.60 and October soybean oil is down 0.05 cents at $52.67 cents.

  • So far, China has made no new crop soybean purchases from the US, sourcing mainly from Brazil. As a result, basis in various parts of North Dakota that export through the PNW have seen basis fall between 1.50 and 1.80 under futures.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales between 400k and 1,000k tons with an average guess of 733k. This would compare with 1,137k last week and 2,403k a year ago.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with September Chicago wheat down 1-1/2 cents to $5.00-3/4 while September KC wheat is unchanged at $4.85-1/2. Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher.

  • The Canadian wheat crop for 25/26 was seen rising to 35.5 mmt from previous estimates of 34.2 mmt according to Bloomberg. Canola production is seen 4.6% higher.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 400k and 700k tons with an average estimate of 533k tons. This would compare to 482k last week and 498k a year ago at this time.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-27 End of Day: Soybeans Trend Sideways While Corn and Wheat Slip Lower Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures slipped Wednesday. Corn lacks a bullish spark, with delivery pressure and muted export sales outweighing supportive ethanol data.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans traded mixed before finishing lower today. Soybean futures are treading water as traders balance good yield potential against uncertainty over China demand and U.S. export prospects.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures led the grain market lower Wednesday. Global wheat supplies remain ample and rising production estimates continue to weigh on futures.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed lower on Wednesday as September lost 5 cents to $3.82-1/2 and December fell 3-1/2 cents to $4.06. With First Notice Day looming Friday, old-crop pricing and long liquidation continue to weigh on the market. Charts look weak, leaving room for additional downside.

  • September pressure persists. Open interest remains above 80,000 contracts, and producers holding basis contracts will need to make pricing decisions this week, adding volatility to the nearby contract.

  • The weekly ethanol report saw production at 2,000 barrels per day, which compares to the average trade guess of 1,073 bpd and last week’s figure at 1,072 bpd. Stocks were 100,000 barrels lower and were down from 22.688 million bbl.

  • Export demand has been quiet over the last week. USDA has not reported a flash sale since Aug. 22 as U.S. and Brazilian prices converge. Trade chatter suggests Taiwan may have booked corn out of the PNW, though only sales over 100,000 MT would trigger USDA reporting.

  • Dry and cool weather seems to be the dominant theme in the near-term for U.S. weather. Parts of the Eastern Corn Belt are observing their driest August in over 100 years. Talk of “Flash Drought” may start hitting the market as the dryness may push the maturity speed on the corn crop.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and traded on either side of unchanged throughout the day. September closed down 1-1/2 cents at $10.27-1/4 and November fell 2 cents to $10.47-1/2. October soybean meal slid $6.20 to $284.30, while October soybean oil eased 0.31 cents to 52.72 cents. With first notice day Friday, many traders are exiting September longs and rolling into deferred contracts.

  • Trade optimism remains in focus. China confirmed it will send a top negotiator to Washington to meet U.S. officials and business leaders this week, though not in a formal negotiating session. Beijing continues to link major purchases — including soybeans and Boeing planes — to the removal of tariffs.

  • The USDA projected the national soybean yield at 53.5 bpa while Pro Farmer estimated it at 53.0 bpa, and many traders think the actual number will be closer to 53.0. Weather has been drier than usual for August, but soil moisture levels were good enough coming into the month to maintain crop conditions.

  • The bearish story for soybeans is the possibility that a trade deal with China does not get achieved, and in this case, the USDA would need to revise export estimates lower which would in turn raise the carryout number past the last estimate of 350 mb for 25/26.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led the way to the downside today with September Chicago posting a 7-1/4 cent loss to 502-1/4, while September Kansas City was down 7-1/2 to 485-1/2. September MIAX took the biggest hit, closing down 15-1/4 cents to 551. Pressure likely stemmed from anticipation that tomorrow, Statistics Canada’s updated estimates will show increased wheat production; the average pre-report estimate for all wheat production comes in at 35.9 mmt versus 34.4 mmt August last year.

  • The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics (ABARE) is anticipated to release an updated wheat production forecast for their nation next week. It is expected to be well above the June estimate of 30.6 mmt, with many private analysts thinking the harvest could be closer to last year’s 34.1 mmt crop.

  • The Indian government has reportedly reduced the limit of wheat stockpiles for traders and wholesalers from 3,000 mt to 2,000 mt. Retailers also saw a reduced requirement from 10 mt to 8 mt, and these restrictions will be in place until the end of March 2026.

  • European Union soft wheat exports for the 25/26 season are down 48% year on year. Since the season began on July 1, only 2.18 mmt of wheat has been exported, compared with 4.15 mmt a year ago. The top importer was Saudi Arabia, followed by Morocco and Nigeria.

  • Ukraine’s largest farming union, UAC, has stated that their country’s 2025 wheat production estimate has a maximum of 21.8 mmt. This would be a decrease from the 2024 crop that totaled 22.7 mmt. Currently, Ukraine’s economy ministry is estimating the output at 21 mmt, but the UAC said this does not account for production from small farmers.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 657 target has been lowered to 656.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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8-27 Midday: Midday Grain Prices Slide Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading lower at midday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and improved rain prospects for the eastern Corn Belt in the second week of the forecast.

  • Dr. Cordonnier forecasts a 15% increase in Argentina’s corn planted acreage this season, while Brazil’s acreage is expected to rise by 1–2%.

  • Ukraine’s farm union has raised its corn production estimate to 29 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million.

  • Ethanol production fell to a 13-week low at 314.6 million gallons, down slightly from 315.2 million the previous week, and in line with year-ago levels. A total of 107 million bushels of corn were used in the production process.

  • Soybeans are trading lower at midday across the entire soy complex, pressured by the extended forecast, which shows continued dryness across the Bean Belt over the next week before precipitation is expected to return.

  • Soybeans pulled back from their highs after the visit with China was characterized as “unofficial,” with no future meetings scheduled with top U.S. trade representatives.

  • Dr. Cordonnier estimates Argentine’s new crop bean planted area to be  down 500,000 ha this coming season while Brazil’s areas are forecast to be up 2%

  • President Trump is following through with pressure on India to stop buying Russian soybean oil and has doubled the tariff on Indian goods to 50%.

  • Wheat prices are mixed at midday with Chicago and HRW edging higher. December Chicago futures are up 4-1/2 to $5.34-1/4 while December HRW is up a penny to $5.21-3/4.

  • Spring wheat ratings declined 1 point from last week to 49% good-to-excellent. This compares to 69% good-to-excellent last year. Spring wheat harvest advanced to 53%, up from 36% last week and up from 48% complete last year.

  • Russia’s IKAR increased the countries wheat production estimate slightly from 85.5 mmt to 86 mmt. The group also raised the country’s export forecast to 43 mmt, up from 42.5 mmt previously estimated.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-27 Opening Update:

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are slightly lower this morning with December futures down 3/4 of a cent at 408-3/4.

  • Pro Farmer’s U.S. corn yield estimate of 182.7 bpa last week offered some support to the market, but the 97 million planted acres nationwide continues to give buyers pause.

  • After a dry stretch this week, rain is expected to return to the Corn Belt after September 6. Cooler-than-normal temperatures should slow maturity and remain overall beneficial for the corn crop.

Corn Futures Show Signs of Life: With the front-month roll from September to December, corn has shown renewed strength. Prices rallied to close last week above the 50-day moving average, a constructive signal. Early this week, corn filled the post–July 4th gap near 413, with the next upside target seen at the gap near 430. On the downside, the 50-day average serves as initial support, while a break could expose the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are trading higher to start Wednesday with November soybeans up 1-3/4 cents at 1051-1/2.

  • A top Chinese trade representative is set to visit Washington this week, raising hopes among soybean traders and producers that oilseed trade will be a priority. However, recent negotiations have focused more on technology and rare earth minerals than on agriculture.

  • Despite U.S. soybeans being priced below Brazilian offers, rumors suggest China is already half covered or more of their needs through October—a key month when buyers typically shift purchases from Brazil to the U.S.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • All three wheat classes are lower to start the day Wednesday.

  • December Chicago wheat futures are 4-1/2 cents lower at 527-1/4. December KC wheat futures are 4-1/4 cents lower at 513-1/2. December MIAX spring wheat futures are 2-1/2 cents lower at 587-1/4. 

  • Harvest pressure continues to weigh on the wheat market, with spring wheat harvest surpassing 50% as of Sunday, according to USDA. Ample wheat supplies from Europe and Russia are also curbing global shortage concerns.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-26 End of Day: Soybeans Edge Higher on China Trade Hopes; Corn Slips on FND Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures slipped lower on Tuesday. Crop ratings remained strong as of Sunday coming in at 71% good-to-excellent.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher Tuesday. Support came from reports that China may send a top trade negotiator to the U.S.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mixed. Support came from strong U.S. export inspections, but gains were capped by larger Russian crop estimates and favorable U.S. weather.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling pressure as the influence of First Notice Day, and technical selling pressured the market. September corn futures finished 1 ¾ cent lower to 387 ¼, and December futures lost 2 ¾ cents.

  • December failed to break resistance at 417 on Monday, sparking follow-through selling. Next support lies near 405, with the psychological 400 level below that.

  • September contracts face added pressure ahead of Friday’s First Notice Day, as producers weigh pricing decisions on old-crop bushels.

  • Crop ratings remain strong at 71% good-to-excellent, a point above expectations. Progress is in line with averages at 44% dented and 7% mature.

  • Brazil’s second corn harvest is 94.8% complete, up 5.5 points from last week. Farmer selling remains slow, with just over 50% of the record crop sold.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with the September contract up 3-1/4 cents at $10.28-3/4 while November was up 1-3/4 cents at $10.49-1/2. October meal gained $1.50 to $290.50, while October oil slipped 1.47 cents to 53.03. Support came from reports that China may send a top trade negotiator to the U.S.

  • In what may be a sign of progressing trade talks between China and the U.S., China has said it would send a key trade negotiator to meet with U.S. officials and business leaders. This is not included in a formal negotiating session. Before making any commitments to purchase soybeans or Boeing planes, Beijing is demanding the removal of the 20% tariffs.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw soybean ratings improve one point from last week to 69% good to excellent. 89% of the crop is setting pods which is on par with the 5-year average while 4% is dropping leaves. This is compared to 6% at this time last year and the 5-year average of 4%.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were sluggish at 383k tons, which compared to 503k a week ago and 420k a year ago. Top destinations were to Indonesia, Mexico, and Italy.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed Tuesday. September Chicago gained 2-3/4 cents to 509-1/2, while Kansas City lost 3-3/4 cents to 493 and Minneapolis fell 5-3/4 cents to 565-3/4. Support came from strong U.S. export inspections at 34.8 mb — well above expectations and more than double the prior week — but gains were capped by larger Russian crop estimates and favorable U.S. weather.

  • Storms rolling through the Southern Plains are bringing widespread rainfall ahead of winter wheat planting, pressuring Kansas City futures as the added moisture should give the crop a strong start.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, the U.S. winter wheat crop is 98% harvested. As for the spring wheat crop, conditions dropped 1% from last week to 49% good to excellent. Additionally, that crop harvest jumped from 36% to 53% complete, which is now just 1% behind the average pace.

  • IKAR has reportedly increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 86 mmt. For reference, the USDA figure is sitting at only 83.5 mmt. IKAR also raised their Russian wheat export projection by 0.5 mmt to 43 mmt.

  • LSEG commodities research is predicting that more heavy rains for Argentine wheat regions will arrive by the end of the week. Totals could be 20-45 mm (about 3/4 to 1-3/4 inch) above normal, with a likelihood for higher amounts in the south. With soil moisture levels already adequate, this is raising some concern about root rot and other disease issues for their wheat crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 657 target has been lowered to 656.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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8-26 Midday: Wheat Edges Higher at Midday, Corn and Soybeans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are lower entering midday. December futures are down 2-1/2 to $4.09-3/4 while the March contract is down 3-1/4 to $4.26-1/2.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings held steady from last week at 71% good-to-excellent but is up from 65% good-to-excellent a year ago.

  • According to AgRural, Brazil’s corn harvest is near the finish line at 98% complete with first crop planting at 3.2% so far.

  • Soybean futures have reversed lower at midday after starting out the morning strong. November futures are down 1/4 to $10.47-1/2 while the January contract is down 1/2 to $10.67-1/4.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings improving 1 point from the week prior to 69% good-to-excellent. This compares to last year’s rating for the same week of 67% good-to-excellent.

  • China and the US are scheduled to hold trade discussions this week which has led to some optimism of a deal being made in the near future.

  • Wheat prices are mixed at midday with Chicago and HRW edging higher. December Chicago futures are up 4-1/2 to $5.34-1/4 while December HRW is up a penny to $5.21-3/4.

  • Spring wheat ratings declined 1 point from last week to 49% good-to-excellent. This compares to 69% good-to-excellent last year. Spring wheat harvest advanced to 53%, up from 36% last week and up from 48% complete last year.

  • Russia’s IKAR increased the countries wheat production estimate slightly from 85.5 mmt to 86 mmt. The group also raised the country’s export forecast to 43 mmt, up from 42.5 mmt previously estimated.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-26 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day With Soybeans Leading

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • September corn is trading 3/4 cents higher at $3.90 while December is unchanged at $4.12-1/4. Yesterday’s export inspections were good at 1,305k tons.

  • The ProFarmer Crop Tour projected large yields and a record US corn harvest for 2025, but mentioned disease in the Midwest a number of times that could impact yields at harvest, and this has worried funds. The average yield was pegged at 182.7 bpa which compares to the USDA’s 188.8 bpa.

  • Corn crop ratings were unchanged from last week at 71% good to excellent. 83% of the crop is in dough stage, 44% is dented, and 7% is mature. 

Corn Futures Show Signs of Life: With the front-month roll from September to December, corn has shown renewed strength. Prices rallied to close last week above the 50-day moving average, a constructive signal. Early this week, corn filled the post–July 4th gap near 413, with the next upside target seen at the gap near 430. On the downside, the 50-day average serves as initial support, while a break could expose the gap below 400.

  • September soybeans are up 8-1/2 cents at $10.34 while November is up 7 cents at $10.54-1.2. October bean meal is up $1.90 at $291.10 while October bean oil is down 0.58 cents at 53.92 cents.

  • Crop Progress saw soybean ratings improve one point from last week to 69% good to excellent. 89% of the crop is setting pods while 4% is dropping leaves.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were poor at 383k tons which compared to 503k a week ago and 420k a year ago. Top destinations were to Indonesia, Mexico, and Italy.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with gains in Chicago wheat and losses in KC and Minneapolis. September Chicago wheat is up 1-1/4 cents at $5.08 and September KC wheat is down 1-3/4 cents at $4.95-1/4.

  • Crop Progress saw spring wheat ratings fall one point to 49% good to excellent. The spring wheat harvest is now 53% complete which compares to 69% at this time a year ago. The winter wheat harvest is now 98% complete which compared to 99% a year ago at this time.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were good at 946k tons which compared to 400k last week and 552k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to Indonesia, the Philippines, and the Korean Republic. 

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-25 End of Day: Soybeans Slip on Stalled China Trade Deal, Corn Ends Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed slightly higher Monday, supported by strength in wheat, expectations for tighter supplies, and a firm demand tone.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Monday. Prices retreated from morning highs amid trade concerns over a stalled China deal.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat began the week mixed, with Chicago posting modest gains while Kansas City edged slightly lower

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished slightly higher on the session, supported by the wheat market, the prospects of a tighter supply and favorable demand tone. September corn finished 1 cent higher to 389 ½ and the December contract gained ¾ cent to 412 ¼.

  • Pro Farmer pegged national corn yield at 182.7 bpa (range 180.9–184.5) on Friday afternoon, well below USDA’s 188.8 bpa forecast. The market is weighing a final outcome between the two, with shrinking crop potential and solid demand underpinning prices.

  • Export inspections stayed strong, with 1.302 MMT shipped in the week ending Aug. 21 — near the high end of expectations and up 29% from last year. The marketing year closes Aug. 31.

  • Concerns regarding fungus issues in the corn crop may push the crop toward the finish line faster than producers want, that could limit potential yield. Crop ratings and Maturity ratings on Monday’s crop progress report could reflect the impact.

  • September futures will be moving towards first notice day on Friday this week. This could bring volatility and pressure to the September contract as producers may need to make pricing decisions regarding old crop bushels. 

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 31,464 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net short 144,650 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the September contract down 11 cents at $10.25-1/2 and November down 10-3/4 cents at $10.47-3/4. October soybean meal was up $0.70 at $289 while October soybean oil was down 0.44 cents to 54.50 cents. Prices faded from earlier morning highs as trade worries about a lack of a Chinese trade deal.

  • Comments from China over the weekend highlighted “rampant” U.S. protectionism threatening agricultural ties, fueling concern that a trade agreement may not materialize.

  • Pro Farmer pegged the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, slightly below USDA’s 53.6 bpa estimate. Disease issues similar to those seen in corn were noted, which could support prices later if conditions worsen.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 35,273 contracts which flipped their net short position to a net long position of just 3 contracts. They sold 13,070 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 31,342 contracts and bought back 24,070 contracts of meal leaving them short 85,239 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 35,273 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net long 3 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat began the week with mixed performance. Chicago wheat posted modest gains, while Kansas City wheat ended the day slightly lower. The market found some support from last week’s decline in the U.S. dollar, as well as a somewhat encouraging weekly export inspections report.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 34.8 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 212 mb, which is up 11% from last year. Inspections are running a little bit above the USDA’s estimated pace; total exports for 25/26 are projected at 875 mb, up 10% from last year.

  • In the southern hemisphere, Argentina saw some frost over the weekend in some wheat growing regions. This may have caused some wheat damage, and northern areas may see more frost in the coming days. Meanwhile, Australia saw heavy rains in western regions this weekend which should benefit their wheat. However, southeastern areas have been drier and need rain to help wheat that is in the reproductive stage.

  • According to Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds added about 8,800 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat. This was about a 10% increase, bringing the total number of shorts to just over 98,000. However, in Kansas City futures, they added only 825 short contracts, a change of just under 2% for the week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,837 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net short 98,132 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 825 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net short 51,380 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 161 contracts between August 12 – August 19, bringing their total position to a net short 23,619 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather