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3-18 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Mixed, Soybeans Lower in Quiet Tuesday Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed Tuesday as selling pressure weighed on front-end contracts, while new crop contracts held onto fractional gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed slightly lower, staying rangebound, with soybean meal leading the decline while soybean oil posted gains.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, fading from early session strength, with Kansas City futures leading gains.

  • To see the updated 14-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America and the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw selling pressure in the front end of the market to finish with mixed trade on the close Tuesday. A calmer wheat market allowed sellers to continue to liquidate long positions at the front end of the market.

  • Technically, the May futures contract tested the 200-day moving average support level during the session. Failure of this point to hold would likely trigger additional long liquidation as speculators have been reducing their length in the market given market volatility.

  • Traders are positioning ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks Report at month-end, which could set the tone for old and new crop markets.

  • With the recent drop in crude oil prices, ethanol margins have tightened. Weekly ethanol production reports have remained supportive of the market, but demand could slow if margin remain tight.  Current usage of corn for ethanol production is running ahead of the pace to reach USDA market year targets.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with futures largely rangebound since the beginning of the month. Slow export demand and the Brazilian harvest which is nearly completed have kept soybeans from rallying significantly, but they remain off contract lows. Soybean meal led soybeans lower today while soybean oil was higher.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 70% as of March 13, the fastest pace on record per AgRural. The southeast and northern regions expect above-average rainfall in the next 6-10 days.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 647k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 854k the previous week and 700k tons a year ago. Soybean export demand in the future may weaken with the continuation of US tariffs on China.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion today, fading off of earlier strength; Kansas City futures remained the upside leader. Paris milling wheat also had a mixed close, offering no direction for the US market. Relative weakness into the close might be explained by a storm system expected to bring precipitation to much of the central plains and Midwest over the next 48 hours.

  • Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings – Texas and Oklahoma conditions held steady at 28% and 46% good to excellent, respectively. However, ratings in Kansas declined 4% to 48% GTE, while Colorado fell 7% to 60% GTE.

  • President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin for over an hour regarding the Ukraine war, with reports indicating a potential 30-day ceasefire focused on energy infrastructure.

  • As of March 16, European Union soft wheat exports have reached 14.92 mmt since the export season began in July. This total is down 35% from the same time period last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop. 

  • Target Hit: The September contract has rebounded over 40 cents from the current March low, hitting the 647.75 sales target today. This marks the fourth sales recommendation for the 2025 Hard Red Spring wheat crop, with an average price of 652.

  • Plan A: No active targets. 647.75 target hit today – 3/18/25.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-18 Midday: Grain Market Remains Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 458.75 -2.25
JUL ’25 468 -2
DEC ’25 454.25 0.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1017.5 2
JUL ’25 1031.5 2.25
NOV ’25 1020 1.5
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 571 2.5
JUL ’25 588 3
JUL ’26 647.5 -0.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 614.75 9.25
JUL ’25 626.5 8.75
JUL ’26 666.5 4.25
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 621 6
JUL ’25 637.25 7
SEP ’25 650.75 7.75
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5663 -69.25
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 67.43 0.06
Gold
JUN ’25 3064 29.9

  • Corn prices are soft at midday, pressured by weather forecasts which show rain for much of the Midwest over the next week.

  • Brazil’s government is ready to move forward with raising the ethanol blend in the country to 30%, up from 27% currently.

  • Corn planting in Texas is viewed as 32% complete, which is in line with last year but 1% lower than the 5-year average.

  • Soybean futures remain slightly higher at midday on forecasted rainfall in South America which would slow their harvest progression.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush came in at a 5-month low at 177.87 mb, down from 187.9 mb in January. Bean oil stocks hit an 8-month high of 1.503 billion bushels in February.

  • Indonesia is set to raise their palm oil export tax from the current 3%-7.5% to 4.5%-10% to support the mandate to increase palm oil usage in biodiesel.

  • President Trump hinted at the possibility that an agreement between the US and China could come in the near future which could give the soy-complex a boost.

  • Wheat prices remain steady at midday on support from warm and dry conditions in the US southern Plains states.

  • Yesterday’s weekly crop report showed US winter wheat ratings declining in both Kansas and Colorado by 4% and 7% to 48% and 60% respectively. Oklahoma and Texas good-to-excellent ratings were unchanged from the week prior at 28% and 48% respectively.

  • President Trump and Russia’s Putin are expected to have a phone call today about a potential ceasefire agreement.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-18 Opening Update: Soybeans and Wheat Higher, Corn Lower to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 457.5 -3.5
JUL ’25 466.5 -3.5
DEC ’25 452.75 -1.25

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1016.5 1
JUL ’25 1030 0.75
NOV ’25 1019.25 0.75

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 570 1.5
JUL ’25 586.5 1.5
JUL ’26 649.75 2

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 608.75 3.25
JUL ’25 620.75 3
JUL ’26 662.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 617.5 2.5
JUL ’25 633.5 3.25
SEP ’25 646.75 3.75

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5720.5 -11.75

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 68.15 0.78

Gold

JUN ’25 3060.5 26.4

  • Corn is trading lower this morning but the May contract has found some support at the 200-day moving average. Yesterday’s export inspections were strong and export demand has been firm, but funds seem to continue to sell.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 1,659k tons of corn inspected for export which compared to 1,844k the previous week and 1,326k tons a year ago. Corn demand has remained firm despite tariff fears.

  • Brazil has decided to increase the blend of ethanol in the country’s gasoline to 30% from the current level of 27.5% in order to help the local industry with increased demand. Brazil is the world’s second largest producer of ethanol.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have been relatively rangebound since the beginning of the month. World soybean values are higher which is supportive, and Chinese soybean stocks are said to be tight. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is trading higher.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report saw US soybean crush reduced to 177.87 million bushels from 187.9 mb in January. This was well below the average trade estimates and was also down from February crush a year ago.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 647k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 854k the previous week and 700k tons a year ago.

  • All three classes of wheat are trading higher this morning as dry weather across much of the winter wheat growing areas remains a concern. Russia may also have losses in production due to weather which could tighten the world balance sheet.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released its weekly crop report which showed good to excellent ratings for wheat in Kansas down to 48% from 52% the previous week. The wheat ratings in Texas and Oklahoma were unchanged at 28% good to excellent and 46% respectively.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 493k tons which compared to 242k the previous week and 394k tons a year ago at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-17 End of Day: Weather Concerns Drive Wheat Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market and robust export inspections.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade.

  • Wheat: Wheat posted double-digit gains, led by Kansas City futures, as weather concerns drive more premium into the market.

  • To see the updated 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust export inspections.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 65.3 MB for the week ending March 13, keeping total inspections 33% ahead of last year, while the USDA projects only a 7% increase. Analysts expect USDA export demand adjustments later in the marketing year.

  • May corn futures are struggling to break resistance at the 100-day moving average, potentially keeping speculators selling into rallies.

  • Brazil’s key second-crop corn planting is nearly complete, but a drier forecast in Mato Grosso could impact crop development.

  • U.S. corn will likely stay competitive in the global export market until the June time window as bids are limited or at a higher value for global competitors until then. U.S. export sales and shipments are running well ahead of the pace needed to reach export targets.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 73,211 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net long 146,541 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade. Prices faded from overnight highs with little bullish fundamental news to drive the complex. Soybean meal ended the day slightly lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.

  • In Brazil, 97.3% of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop was harvested as of last Friday, with dry weather in the 10-day forecast. Production may fall slightly below initial estimates.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 19,943 contracts of soybeans, which left them with a net short position of 15,544 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 23,521 contracts and buyers of meal by 13,317 contracts.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 19,943 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 1,5,544 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat made double-digit gains led by Kansas City futures, as more weather premium is being factored in. Warmth, dryness, and strong winds in the U.S. southern Plains remain a key focus, with 27% of U.S. winter wheat in drought—double last year’s level. A weaker U.S. dollar and higher Matif wheat prices also provided support.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 18.1 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 601 mb, which is up 18% from last year. Inspections are steady with the USDA’s estimated pace; they are estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.

  • President Trump has indicated that he will speak with Putin tomorrow. This discussion will reportedly center around ending the Ukraine war.

  • According to SovEcon, the Russian government wants to keep their domestic flour and bread prices low – therefore they may continue to cut wheat exports. In theory this could mean more demand for U.S. wheat, which would be bullish.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,987 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 77,412 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,440 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 48,722 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 647.75 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,450 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 25,642 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-17 Midday: Wheat Sharply Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 462 3.5
JUL ’25 471 3.5
DEC ’25 454.5 3.5
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1014.75 -1.25
JUL ’25 1029.25 -0.75
NOV ’25 1019.25 1.25
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 573.75 16.75
JUL ’25 590 17
JUL ’26 650.25 10.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 607.5 21.5
JUL ’25 619.5 20.75
JUL ’26 662.5 12.75
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 617.5 15.75
JUL ’25 632.75 16.25
SEP ’25 645.25 15.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5713.75 21.5
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 67.13 0.22
Gold
JUN ’25 3029.1 0.2

  • A warmer, drier forecast for Brazil through the end of the month is adding weather premium back into the corn market to start the week.

  • Managed money funds shed more net long positions than expected in Friday’s COT report, cutting holdings to 132,000 contracts as of last Tuesday—down sharply from over 361,000 in early February.

  • U.S. corn demand remains solid, with export sales running 25% ahead of last year, while both ethanol demand and production continue to outpace last year’s levels.

  • Soybeans are slightly lower to start the week as harvest continues to progress in both Brazil and Argentina.

  • Weakness in palm oil futures is adding pressure, though midday soybean oil futures are holding onto slight gains.

  • Despite recent weakness, soybean futures continue to find solid support around the $10 level. This psychological threshold has acted as a magnet for front-month futures since September, with prices spending very little time trading significantly above or below it.

  • Wheat prices are higher to start the week as warmer, drier-than-normal conditions persist across the U.S. Plains.

  • Strong export demand and a weaker U.S. dollar are likely encouraging fresh buying after last week’s price decline.

  • Traders remain cautious as reciprocal tariffs are expected to take effect in early April, adding uncertainty to trade relations.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-17 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 464.25 5.75
JUL ’25 473 5.5
DEC ’25 454.25 3.25

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1017.25 1.25
JUL ’25 1030.75 0.75
NOV ’25 1019.75 1.75

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 569.25 12.25
JUL ’25 585 12
JUL ’26 649 9

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 603 17
JUL ’25 615.75 17
JUL ’26 649.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 613.75 12
JUL ’25 628 11.5
SEP ’25 641 11.25

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5685.5 -6.75

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 67.81 0.9

Gold

JUN ’25 3035.4 6.5

  • Corn is trading higher to start the day as it follows the gains in wheat. The May contract found some support at the 100-day moving average last week but posted a 10-3/4 cent loss throughout the week. US corn is competitively priced, and good export demand has been supportive.

  • President Trump has said that he plans to move forward with both reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on Canada starting April 2. The last two times the tariffs were supposed to go into effect they were pushed back, so there is a degree of uncertainty to what will happen this time.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 73,211 contracts of corn as of March 11 which left them with a net long position of 146,541 contracts. Funds have gone from near record long to this level over the past few weeks. 

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning and gave back some larger overnight gains as soybean oil followed palm oil futures lower. Soybean crush values have been recently driven by high soybean oil prices. Both soybean meal and oil are slightly higher.

  • Estimates from Bloomberg ahead of the NOPA crush report see February soybean crush slowing from January to 187.9 million bushels. If realized, this would be up 0.9% from the previous year but down 6.2% from the previous month.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 19,943 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net short position of 15,544 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 23,521 contracts and buyers of meal by 13,317 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day and are leading the grain complex higher. May futures have gained 40 cents since the new contract low was made two weeks ago. Drier forecasts in HRW wheat areas have been supportive.

  • More support may be coming from weather in the Black Sea region. The area received some rain over the weekend, but it was light, and the amounts expected this week are likely not enough to make up for the dry soil moisture levels. Above normal temperatures are expected as well.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 4,987 contracts which left them net short 77,412 contracts. They were sellers of KC wheat by 9,440 contracts which increased their net short position to 48,722 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-14 End of Day: Corn and Wheat End the Week Lower, While Soybeans Post Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Feeding off the weakness in the wheat market, corn futures ultimately ended the trading day lower, despite the export sale announcement earlier this morning.

  • Soybeans: Despite the weakness in the corn and wheat markets, soybeans managed to end the week on a positive note, closing higher on the day, supported by lower soybean production estimates in Argentina.

  • Wheat: Wheat ended the week with losses across the board, as weather concerns in the U.S. Southern Plains and the Black Sea region persist.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal rainfall map for South America as well as the updated U.S. drought monitor, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower on the day, posting moderate losses in the front-month contracts. Despite an announced export sale in the morning, weakness in wheat and the expiration of the March futures limited gains to end the week. For the week, May corn futures closed 10 ¾ cents lower, nearly 20 cents off the highs of the week.

  • The March corn futures finished its trading life on Friday, settling at 445 ½. The softer trade on Friday limited gains in the front month contacts. May futures closed the day with a 14-cent premium to the final March trade.

  • The USDA announced a corn export sale on Friday morning.  For the current marketing, US exporters sold 218,604 MT (8.6 MB) to an unknown destination. This was the third report corn export sale for the month of March.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina posted their projection for the upcoming corn harvest on Friday morning.  The exchange lowered estimated production by 8 MMt to 44.5 MMT. This was a significant drop compared to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cutting the crop by only 1MMT on Thursday.

  • The weather forecast in Brazil is mostly favorable for the development of their key 2nd corn crop. Despite that, dry conditions in the east need to be monitored. The market is concerned about a possible spread into the center-south corn producing regions.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a quiet trading session that saw futures mostly unchanged until the latter part of the day. Lowered soybean production estimates from Argentina earlier this week have been supportive. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil led the complex higher, buoyed by rising crude oil prices.

  • This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA an export sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. While soybean export demand has been poor due to a large Brazilian harvest, yesterday’s export sales were above the average trade estimate for soybeans.

  • In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange has lowered its estimate for soybean production to 46.1 mmt which is down 1 mmt from February. This comes after Brazil’s CONAB brought its estimate for production below the USDA’s guess. Also in Brazil, weather is set to be dry throughout the southern regions of the country during pod fill which could also be supportive.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 9 cents to $10.16 while November soybeans lost 7-1/2 cents to $10.18. The lack of carry in the market is interesting given anticipation of fewer new crop bean acres to be planted this year. May soybean meal gained $1.50 to $305.90 and May soybean oil lost 1.83 cents to 41.59 cents.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with small to moderate losses across the board. May Paris milling wheat had gapped higher yesterday but reversed to fill that gap today, ultimately closing lower. Today’s weakness comes despite ongoing concerns about dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains and the Black Sea region.

  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, spring wheat plantings are estimated at 5.7 million hectares, which is in line with year ago levels.

  • FranceAgriMer has reported their soft wheat crop condition at 74% good to excellent – this is unchanged from the week prior. However, durum wheat conditions fell 1% to 81% good to excellent.

  • The U.S. Northern Plains are forecast to receive storms bringing a mix of scattered showers and snow. The addition of heavy winds could lead to blizzard conditions, but with the current lack of soil moisture, this precipitation may be welcomed by producers as they approach spring wheat planting.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 647.75 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: 10-Day Average Precipitation Anomalies of South America courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Unified Gauge 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-14 Midday: Corn and Wheat Remain Pressured at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 458.75 -6.5
JUL ’25 467.25 -5
DEC ’25 450 -2.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1012.75 2
JUL ’25 1026.5 1.5
NOV ’25 1014.75 3
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 558.75 -3.75
JUL ’25 575.25 -3
JUL ’26 641.5 0.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 587.25 -0.25
JUL ’25 600.5 -0.25
JUL ’26 652.5 -0.25
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 602.25 -1.5
JUL ’25 617 -0.75
SEP ’25 629.5 -0.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5674.25 96
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 66.7 0.43
Gold
JUN ’25 3019.1 -0.4

  • Corn prices are trading lower at midday, with yesterday’s rally fading quickly. Prices have dipped back to this week’s lows, and the market remains volatile as traders await the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, set for release on March 31. Uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to add pressure, keeping the market on edge.

  • USDA confirms the US export sales of 218,604 tons of corn for delivery to an unknown destination in 24/25.

  • The corn market faced additional pressure yesterday following rumors that China was set to purchase a significant volume of Brazilian corn cargoes, which is somewhat unusual for this time of year.

  • The U.S. and safrinha corn crops will play a crucial role in global supplies later this year, and any signs of weather-related issues could trigger significant market reactions.

  • Soybean prices are turning higher at midday as the Brazil harvest progresses, and concerns over U.S. spring weather remain premature. While soybean meal is trading lower, soybean oil is experiencing gains at this time.

  • USDA confirms the US export sales of 20,000 tons of soyoil for delivery to an unknown destination in 24/25.

  • Soybean market pressure has returned following the cancellation of the oilseed workers’ strike in Argentina. The cancellation was because of government meeting earlier in the week.

  • U.S. tariffs have led to Brazilian soybean premiums rising due to strong demand from China, which has also provided some support to U.S. prices.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its outlook for Argentina’s 24/25 soybean crop, dropping its estimate to 46.5 mmt from 47.5 mmt previously.

  • Wheat prices are trending lower this morning across all three classes, with wheat futures pulling back after stronger-than-expected weekly export sales were released yesterday.

  • Some beneficial moisture is expected in the Northeast Plains and Eastern Midwest over the next week, easing weather concerns in parts of the U.S. However, the Western and Southern Plains remain dry.

  • The U.S. winter wheat area experiencing drought increased by 3% this week, reaching 27%, compared to 14% last year. Meanwhile, U.S. spring wheat under drought has risen to 39%.

  • French SRW conditions for the week remain unchanged at 74% good/excellent.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-14 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower, March Grains Expire Today

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 459.25 -6
JUL ’25 467.5 -4.75
DEC ’25 449.5 -2.75

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1009.25 -1.5
JUL ’25 1024 -1
NOV ’25 1011.75 0

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 558.25 -4.25
JUL ’25 574.75 -3.5
JUL ’26 639.75 -1.5

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 585.75 -1.75
JUL ’25 599.25 -1.5
JUL ’26 652.5 -0.25

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 601.25 -2.5
JUL ’25 614.5 -3.25
SEP ’25 629.25 -0.75

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5616.5 38.25

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 66.97 0.7

Gold

JUN ’25 3036.9 17.4

  • Corn futures are trading lower to start the day as March futures prepare to go off the board around $4.43. May corn is currently on track for a nearly 10 cent loss on the week as trade has been concerned over tariffs and the possibilities of a trade war.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was decent for corn saw sales at 981k tons which was on the higher side of trade expectations and compared to 961k tons last week. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Spain.

  • A recent shift to warmer and drier-than-normal conditions over the next two weeks across much of Brazil’s second-crop corn regions is likely adding some weather premium back into the market. With Brazil’s ending stocks projected to be the lowest since 2002, there is little room for a production issue, keeping traders focused on weather developments.

  • Soybeans are mixed to start the day with the two front months trading lower while the deferred are slightly higher. March soybeans are set to go off the board around $9.97 at this point.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was good for soybeans with 795k tons sold which compared to 408k tons last week. Primary destinations were to China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands.

  • Soybeans remain under pressure as the rapidly advancing Brazilian harvest continues to add supply to the global market. As of early this week, Brazil’s soybean harvest was 61% complete, with the top-producing state of Mato Grosso nearing 92% completion.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the  way lower. Wheat showed strength yesterday after Paris milling wheat gapped higher making US wheat more competitive on the global market.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw better than expected wheat sales at 866k tons which compared to 416k tons the previous week. Primary destinations were to Panama, South Korea, and the Philippines. 

  • A warm and dry outlook for the U.S. Plains and much of the Black Sea region over the next two weeks is injecting some weather premium back into wheat futures. With winter wheat emerging from dormancy, concerns over soil moisture deficits and potential stress on the crop are supporting prices.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-13 End of Day: Grains Close Higher Following Weekly Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market found support today from the strong buying activity in the soybean and wheat markets, ultimately finishing the day with gains.

  • Soybeans: The soybean market closed higher, driven by gains in soybean meal, as strikes at Argentine soy crushing plants continue to impact the market, further supported by stronger-than-expected export sales.

  • Wheat: Wheat closed the trading day in the green, with ongoing weather concerns in the U.S. Southern Plains providing continued support for prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

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Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop today.

  • Close: The December ‘26 contract closed at 455.25 today.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong buying in the wheat and soybean markets, coupled with a firm export tone, helped support corn futures during Thursday’s session. Overall, prices consolidated, trading within the range established during Wednesday’s price action.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending March 6, US exporter posted new sales of 967,300 MT (38.1 mb) for the current marketing year.  This was up 6% from last week, but down 19% from the prior 4-week average. Mexico was the top buyer of US corn for that week.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine corn crop estimates to 44.4 MMT, down 1.5 MMT due to impacts from heat and dryness seen during the early part of the growing season.

  • Brazil’s ag agency CNAB raised their corn production forecasts slightly higher in their March production report on Thursday.  The crop was raised to 122.76 MMT, up from 122.02 MMT in February.  Within in the report, CONAB did slightly lower the exportable second crop corn slightly, as the production increase was from Brazil’s first corn crop. Project corn ending stocks were 5.54 MMT for the 2024-25 marketing year, up 2.49 MMT over last year.

Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day giving back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. Soybean meal led the complex higher following strikes at Argentinian soy crushing plants. Export sales were better than expected, which was supportive, but soybean oil followed crude oil lower.

  • Today’s export sales were good for soybeans with sales coming in above expectations at 967,300 mt of old crop and 13,400 mt of new. This put sales ahead of last year at this time by 14%. Soybean oil sales were withing trade expectations while soybean meal sales were below expectations.

  • Arguably the biggest bullish news today was the start of worker strikes at Argentine soy crushing plants. The oilseed workers’ union initiated the strike over layoffs and in protest against the actions of national security forces. This news sparked a strong rally in soybean meal, as Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean meal.

  • In South America, Argentina is forecast to receive late rains that should be beneficial to both the soybean and corn crops. The Rosario Grain Exchange has forecasted soybean production at 46.5 mmt, along the same lines as the USDA. Early heat and drought damaged the crop.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in the green, led by Kansas City futures, with continued concerns over warm temperatures and high winds in the U.S. Southern Plains for the remainder of the week providing support to HRW prices.

  • Weekly wheat export sales totaled 28.8 mb for 24/25 along with 3.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 8.2 mb were under the 20.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 835 mb. Total wheat sales commitments have reached 775 mb, up 14% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 11, an estimated 27% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, marking a 3% increase from the previous week. Spring wheat areas in drought remained steady at 39%, although this is 9% higher compared to the same time last year.

  • Although a ceasefire agreement has been drafted between the U.S. and Ukraine, Russia has yet to concur. News outlets this afternoon report that Putin has stated he agrees ‘in principle’ to a 30-day ceasefire, though the specifics still need to be worked out.

  • IKAR has issued a new estimate of Russian wheat exports, lowering it again, this time by 1.5 mmt to 41 mmt. The USDA is sitting at a 45 mmt estimate. In related news, Ukrainian wheat 24/25 wheat exports have hit 12.4 mmt since the season began in July – this is up 3% year over year.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, the expected French 24/25 soft wheat exports are now estimated at 9.58 mmt. This is down 1.7% from the February guess of 9.74 mmt and is said to be due to a 6% decline in non-EU sales. Additionally, the stockpiles estimate increased from 2.81 to 2.91 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 701 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 714 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 704 level.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 717 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 677 level.

2026 Crop:

  • Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 625 level.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: Just a heads-up — if the stars align, so to speak, across the market indicators that Grain Market Insider monitors, we might issue a sales recommendation prior to reaching that 647.75 level.

2026 Crop:

  • No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.