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3-24 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 460.75 -3.5
JUL ’25 468.25 -3.25
DEC ’25 449 -2

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1007 -2.75
JUL ’25 1018.75 -2.75
NOV ’25 1005.75 -2

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 551.25 -7
JUL ’25 567.5 -7
JUL ’26 637.5 -0.75

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 580.75 -8
JUL ’25 595.75 -7.75
JUL ’26 657.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 601 -4
JUL ’25 617 -3.75
SEP ’25 631.75 -3.5

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5785.5 67.25

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 68.77 0.49

Gold

JUN ’25 3060.2 11.8

  • Corn are trading lower to start the day after gaining 5-3/4 cents last week. Pressure may be coming from the uncertainty of tariffs which are coming again next week along with the upcoming planting intentions report which may show a large number for corn.

  • The USDA ag attaché sees Mexican corn imports down in 25/26 as a result of higher domestic production. They see local prices driving a larger planting area.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn by 39,271 contracts as of March 18. This reduced their net long position to 107,270 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and although they have trended lower since the beginning of February, they have been rangebound over the past two weeks. If planting intentions are lowered in the upcoming report, soybeans could see a boost. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly 73.84% complete which compares to 69.33% at this time last year. The US ag attaché to Brazil sees production at 173 mmt for the 25/26 crop.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 6,461 contracts increasing their net short position to 22,005 contracts. They sold 13,757 contracts of bean oil and bought 11,014 contracts of meal.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as tariff fears and uncertainty pressure markets. Needed rains for HRW wheat areas mostly missed over the weekend which could lower crop conditions.

  • The US has begun ceasefire talks with Russia in the Black Sea region to secure a maritime peace before coming to a wider agreement with the war. Putin’s primary demand is how much Ukrainian territory Russia will get to keep.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 3,256 contracts leaving them net short 80,668 contracts. They bought back 2,059 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 46,663 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-21 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Wheat Gains on Drought Concerns, Corn and Soybeans Slip

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed lower, erasing yesterday’s gains as a stronger U.S. dollar and tariff concerns from Canada and Mexico pressured the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower amid weak export demand and pressure from Brazil’s record harvest.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended mostly higher as drought expansion across the U.S. provided support.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC as well as the 14-day precipitation anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2026 corn crop. Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn closed lower, erasing most of yesterday’s gains, as a stronger U.S. dollar and lingering tariff concerns from Canada and Mexico pressured the market. May 2025 futures dipped back below the 100-day moving average but managed to retain modest gains for the week.

  • Traders are closely awaiting the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, scheduled for March 31. Expectations are for a large increase in U.S. corn acres compared to last year.

  • The BAGE held their Argentine production estimates unchanged at 49 mmt vs the USDA’s estimate of 50 mmt as harvest progress has nearly reached 14%.

  • Tariff tensions are set to escalate next week as the April 2 deadline nears and negotiations gain momentum. Analysts expect a swift resolution, given Canada and Mexico’s reliance on U.S. trade. Meanwhile, Northern Mexico’s persistent drought underscores the region’s continued need for U.S. corn imports.

  • Brazil is expected to receive between ¾ and 2 ½ inches of rain through next Thursday. While this rainfall will be beneficial for the development of other crops, it may delay ongoing harvest for both soybeans and the first corn crop. In contrast, Argentina is expected to experience a few more days of dry weather, allowing the harvest to continue without disruption.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower on little fresh news apart from poor export demand and an ongoing record large Brazilian harvest. Bullish news could come next week if soybean acres are significantly reduced in the Planting Intentions report. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • A grain exchange in Argentina has cut their estimate for soybean production in the country by 1 million tons as a result of drought conditions. Estimates are now at 48.6 mmt which is slightly lower than the USDA’s most recent estimate.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.09-3/4, while November soybeans lost 10-1/4 cents at $10.07-3/4. May soybean meal was down $5.60 at $300.30 and May soybean oil gained 0.42 cents at 42.01.

  • Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mostly higher, despite the firming U.S. dollar and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. Increased drought readings for much of U.S. Midwest and Plains states are helping to support the market.

  • The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 global grain stockpile estimate to 578 mmt, up 1 mmt year-over-year. However, wheat stocks are expected to decline from 265 mmt to 259 mmt.

  • The extended forecast for April calls for widespread warm and dry conditions. This could affect the development of the U.S. winter wheat crop due to a lack of soil moisture. However, this should also mitigate concerns over frost or freeze damage.

  • The Ukrainian first deputy farm minister has said that their winter crops are in satisfactory condition. Furthermore, weather swings in February and so far in March were not enough to cause any significant crop damage.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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3-21 Midday: Grains Turn Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 464 -5
JUL ’25 471.75 -3.75
DEC ’25 451.25 -1.75
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1005.75 -7.25
JUL ’25 1018.5 -6.75
NOV ’25 1004.75 -5.5
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 556.75 -0.5
JUL ’25 573.25 -0.25
JUL ’26 635.75 -2.5
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 590.5 4
JUL ’25 605 4
JUL ’26 660 5.5
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 604.5 -0.25
JUL ’25 620.75 0.25
SEP ’25 635 0.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5673.5 -39.25
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 68.23 0.16
Gold
JUN ’25 3047.4 -23.9

  • Corn prices dip at midday as traders monitor potential tariff policy changes and await the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on March 31st.

  • Brazilian corn prices continue to climb, fueling ongoing rumors that Brazil may be purchasing U.S. corn. While the rising prices make this possibility more plausible, there has been no official confirmation yet.

  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange said Argentine harvest is 13.6% complete. The weather is expected to be dry for a couple more days, than rains are expected which could delay harvest.

  • The U.S. corn area continues to be under drought, but the drought monitor dropped 2% down to 53%, which is still up compared to 34% a year ago. Although some precipitation is expected across the eastern Corn Belt, the western part is still expected to be dry.

  • Soybean prices remain under pressure at midday as traders digest yesterday’s disappointing export sales report and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs. While soybean meal is seeing some gains, soybeans and soybean oil continue to trade lower.

  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange raised the Argentine soybean conditions to 29% good to excellent, up from 24% last week and 31% at this time last year. They also lowered the Argentine production number by 1 million tons to 48.6 million.

  • The Mato Grosso soybean harvest is now 97% complete compared to the 93% average at this time.

  • With U.S. tariffs still in place, China is expected to source soybeans exclusively from Brazil. However, Brazil’s exportable soybean supply may be depleted by late summer, which could create an opportunity for U.S. soybean exports to fill the gap.

  • U.S. soybean areas under drought dropped by 4% last week to 42%, compared to 30% a year ago.

  • Wheat turns mixed at midday, supported by tightening global supplies and ongoing concerns about potential weather-related damage to the winter wheat crop in the U.S.

  • Weather concerns continue over the health of the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains, as dryness is expected to persist for the next two weeks. The portion of the U.S. winter wheat area affected by drought increased by 7% last week, now reaching 34%, compared to 17% at this time last year.

  • Wheat prices continue to face pressure following yesterday’s export sales report, which showed negative old crop exports due to cancellations.

  • The International Grains Council lowered global wheat stocks to 259 million tons, down from 265 last month.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-21 Opening Update: Grains Mixed in Quiet Friday Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 468 -1
JUL ’25 475 -0.5
DEC ’25 453.25 0.25

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1012.75 -0.25
JUL ’25 1025.25 0
NOV ’25 1010 -0.25

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 558.5 1.25
JUL ’25 575 1.5
JUL ’26 636.75 -1.5

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 587.25 0.75
JUL ’25 602.5 1.5
JUL ’26 652.75 -1.75

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 605.25 0.5
JUL ’25 622.5 2
SEP ’25 634 -0.5

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5698.25 -14.5

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 67.8 -0.27

Gold

JUN ’25 3064.7 -6.6

  • Corn futures are mixed to start the day with the front months slightly lower and new crop slightly higher. For the week, May corn is set to gain 10 cents which would take back the losses of last week.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report for corn was supportive at 1,558k tons sold which compared to 980.7 a week ago and 1,185k tons a year ago at this time. The top buyers were Japan, South Korea, and Mexico.

  • There have been rumors that Brazil has booked US corn for import which has been supportive as well, but if this is true it is not completely uncommon as they will sometimes purchase between 1.5 and 3.0 mmt per season.

  • Soybeans are unchanged to slightly lower to start the day in quiet trade across the grain complex. For the week, May futures are set to lose 2 cents which would make the fourth consecutive week of losses. Soybean meal is slightly higher while bean oil is lower.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were disappointing for soybeans with just 352.7k tons sold which was below the average trade estimates. This compared to 794.8k last week and 494.3k tons a year ago. Primary destinations were to China, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia.

  • A large grain exchange in Argentina has cut their estimate for the soybean production estimate by 1 million tons as a result of drought conditions. Estimates are now at 48.6 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher in their front months but slightly lower in the deferred contracts. May Chicago wheat is set to make a small gain on the week following a 5-3/4 cent gain last week.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was poor for wheat sales at only 242.3k tons which was well below estimates and last week’s 866k but higher than a year ago at 176.3k tons. Top destinations were to Guatemala, Vietnam, and Mexico.

  • US 2025 all-wheat acres could reach 46.6 million (up from 46.0 million last year). March 1 stocks are expected to be around 1,225 million bushels (up from 1,089 million last year). There’s also a chance of rain in Kansas.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-20 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Close Higher Following Export Report, While Wheat Remains Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn closed higher today, supported by another week of strong export sales.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans began the day weaker, pressured by disappointing export sales, but gained strength as the day progressed, supported by the corn market, and ultimately closed higher.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a general lack of significant market-moving news.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buying strength continued in the front end of the corn market, with another week of strong export sales providing support for the old corn crop. Deferred prices also moved slightly higher, in line with the strength in the front-end markets.

  • USDA released weekly export sales for the week ending March 13. U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.497 MMT (58.9 MB) for the current marketing year. Corn sales are running 25% higher year over year. Japan was the largest buyer of U.S. corn for that week.

  • In South American weather, rainfall looks promising in central Brazil for the next seven days. The Provence of Parana may be left out of that forecast, which is responsible for 15% of the safrinha corn production. Argentina weather has been dry enough to expand harvest with the harvest now close to 12% done.

  • Rumors that Brazil was purchasing U.S. corn on the export market were in front of the market this morning. Brazil has a tight domestic corn supply and typically does step out to import some bushels every year. Annually, Brazil imports between 1.5-3.0 MMT of corn.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with the front months posting larger gains than new crop contracts. Export sales were disappointing this morning which brought early weakness, but prices moved higher into the close along with corn. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil followed crude oil higher.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was below trade estimates at 13.0 million bushels for 24/25 and 100 mt for 25/26. Primary destinations were to China, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia. Last week’s export shipments of 21.8 mb were above the 14.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates of 1.825 bb for 24/25.

  • Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.

  • Brazilian soybean basis has improved recently due to high Chinese demand despite the record large crop being harvested, and Chinese February soybean imports increased to 13.6 mmt which is up 4.4% from a year ago. Brazilian exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt compared to 13.5 mmt a year ago.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses in each of the three classes. A stronger U.S. dollar, lower close for Matif wheat, and a lack of fresh friendly news all contributed to today’s weakness.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 9.1 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 but an increase of 18.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaling 17.3 mb fell below the 21.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 835 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 766 mb for 24/25, which is up 13% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 18 an estimated 34% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is a jump up from the 27% reading last week. The spring wheat area in drought held steady with last week; however, it was at an estimated 39%.

  • The International Grains Council has estimated world 25/26 wheat production at 807 mmt, which would be up 1% from a year ago.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-20 Midday: Corn Continues Momentum at Midday, Soybeans and Wheat Remain Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 466.25 4.25
JUL ’25 473 3.75
DEC ’25 452.75 1.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1008 -0.25
JUL ’25 1020.75 -0.75
NOV ’25 1007 -3
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 554.5 -9
JUL ’25 571.5 -8.5
JUL ’26 639 -6.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 585 -9.75
JUL ’25 599.5 -9.25
JUL ’26 657.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 606.25 -5.5
JUL ’25 622.25 -5.25
SEP ’25 637 -4.25
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5747.75 18
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 68.06 1.15
Gold
JUN ’25 3075 5.9

  • Corn remains higher at midday, supported by strong weekly export sales announcements.

  • Weekly corn export sales came in at 61 mb, which was in line with trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now total 2.048 billion bushels, up 25% from last year.

  • Much of the Midwest is slated to see some precipitation over the next 7-10 days but favors mostly the eastern Corn Belt.

  • Soybean prices remain pressured at midday by poor weekly export sales results from last week.

  • Weekly soybean export sales came in below expectations at 13 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.669 billion bushels, up 13% from a year ago.

  • Abiove lowered their Brazil soybean production estimate for 2025 from 171.7 mmt to 170.9 mmt. This compares to the USDA’s estimate of 169 mmt.

  • The USDA attaché in Beijing sees Chinese soybean imports reaching 106 mmt for 25/26.

  • Wheat prices remain soft at midday amid a rising dollar and potential acreage increases in the upcoming acreage report.

  • Weekly wheat export sales came in at 10 mb, which was below trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 766 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • Prices may find support on dips as drought conditions persist through much of the Southern Plains and Black Sea region.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-20 Opening Update: Corn Higher, Soybeans and Wheat Trading Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 462.5 0.5
JUL ’25 470 0.75
DEC ’25 451.75 0.25

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1004.5 -3.75
JUL ’25 1017.25 -4.25
NOV ’25 1005.75 -4.25

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 559 -4.5
JUL ’25 575.5 -4.5
JUL ’26 642.75 -2.5

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 588.75 -6
JUL ’25 603.25 -5.5
JUL ’26 657.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 610.5 -1.25
JUL ’25 627 -0.5
SEP ’25 641.5 0.25

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5707 -22.75

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 66.97 0.06

Gold

JUN ’25 3067.4 -1.7

  • Corn futures are trading higher to start the day with the May contract finding support at the 200-day moving average yesterday before moving higher. Strong export demand has kept the corn market supported.

  • US ethanol stocks fell by 2.9% to 26.575m bbl compared to analyst expectations of 27.271m. Plant production came in at 1.105m barrels per day compared to the average guess of 1.059m.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 650k and 1,300k tons with an average guess of 1,100k tons. This would compare to 981k last week and 1,186k tons a year ago at this time.

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start the day and have been drifting to lower prices since the beginning of February due to poor export demand and tariff threats. The USDA’s potential reduction in soybean planting intentions could be helpful. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 250k and 800k tons with an average guess of 638k. This would compare to 795k last week and 494k the year before.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower after posting double digit losses yesterday that far exceeded Chicago wheat’s loss. This came after needed rains fell in hard red winter wheat areas.

  • US 2025 all-wheat acres could reach 46.6 million (up from 46.0 million last year). March 1 stocks are expected to be around 1,225 million bushels (up from 1,089 million last year). There’s also a chance of rain in Kansas.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 100k and 650k tons with an average guess of 513k. This would compare to 866k last week and 176k tons the previous year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-19 End of Day: Mixed Close for Corn, Soybeans Lower, Wheat Drops on Wetter Outlook

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed again on Wednesday, but unlike yesterday, old crop contracts closed higher while new crop contracts finished lower.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day slightly lower, similar to yesterday’s movement. Soybean oil and meal futures also closed lower, with soybean meal posting the larger losses.

  • Wheat: Wetter conditions forecasted for the Plains led to a lower close across the board for wheat futures on Wednesday, with KC futures taking the brunt of the decline.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal precipitation map and the 8–14-day precipitation outlook for South America and the U.S., scroll down to the charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50.  If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.

    • Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded mixed on Wednesday, with light buying strength returning to old crop contracts, while new crop prices remained under pressure.

  • Traders are positioning ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks report, which could shape market direction. Analysts expect strong demand to be reflected but also anticipate a significant increase in corn acreage compared to last year.

  • Weekly ethanol production rebounded over last week. Production jumped to 325 million barrels/day (mbpd) versus 312 mbpd last week, up 5.6% over last year. An estimated 111 mb of corn was used in the production of ethanol last week. This total is still trending ahead of USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • USDA export sales data will be released Thursday, with new corn sales for the week ending March 13 projected between 800,000 MT and 1.7 MMT. Last week’s total was 967,000 MT.

  • With planting mostly complete on the key second crop Brazil corn, weather becomes the focus. Early-season conditions are favorable, with expected rainfall supporting crop development.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.

    • The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.

    • A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day but have maintained their rangebound trade. Weather in Brazil has been relatively good for the completion of harvest, and the country has been exporting large amounts of soybeans putting pressure on U.S. demand. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with meal posting the larger losses.

  • Brazilian soybean basis has improved recently due to high Chinese demand despite the record large crop being harvested, and Chinese February soybean imports increased to 13.6 mmt which is up 4.4% from a year ago. Brazilian exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt compared to 13.5 mmt a year ago.

  • It is expected that the EPA will propose U.S. biofuel blending targets for 2026 in April or May according to Darling Ingredients. The industry is asking for a 2 billion gallon increase to biomass-based diesel volumes from existing blending targets.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 70% as of March 13, the fastest pace on record per AgRural. The southeast and northern regions expect above-average rainfall in the next 6-10 days.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Improved precipitation chances from a Midwestern storm pressured the wheat market Wednesday, leading to profit-taking from the recent rally. HRW futures saw the most selling pressure.

  • Rain and snowfall forecasts for parts of Kansas are expected to provide much-needed moisture to winter wheat crops.

  • Technically, wheat futures followed through from the soft close on Tuesday. Wheat futures are testing support levels with today’s close. These levels need to hold, or the wheat market is at risk of breaking the most recent trend higher, likely leading to further downside correction.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales for wheat on Thursday morning. For the week ending March 13, reported sales are expected to range from 300,000-700,000 MT of new sales. Last week US exporters sold 783,416 MT, which was above trade expectations.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS wheat crop following the recent hit of the 647.75 target. 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Above: From Barchat – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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3-19 Midday: Grains Remain Mixed Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 462 3.25
JUL ’25 470 2
DEC ’25 454 -0.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1011 -1.75
JUL ’25 1024.5 -2
NOV ’25 1012 -3.5
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 565.5 0.5
JUL ’25 582.5 0.5
JUL ’26 645.5 -0.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 598.75 -7.5
JUL ’25 612.75 -6.25
JUL ’26 662.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 616.75 2.75
JUL ’25 632.25 2
SEP ’25 645.5 2
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5696 26.75
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 67.22 0.47
Gold
JUN ’25 3067.9 -1

  • Corn futures remain mixed, as prices continue to face pressure due to expectations of a significant increase in planted acreage this spring, along with ongoing concerns about tariffs, as President Trump maintains an aggressive stance.

  • Yesterday S&P Global Commodity Insights increased its 2025 planted corn estimate for US corn to 94.3 million acres, up 800,000 acres from the previous forecast in January and up 3.7 million acres from 2024.

  • The Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is nearing completion, with 89.6% of the crop planted as of this week, compared to 92.3% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 90.4%. While the lack of abundant rain in recent weeks has allowed producers to make significant planting progress, additional rainfall is needed to ensure the crops continues to develop.

  • While corn demand has remained strong this year, China’s corn imports for January and February were the slowest in seven years, down 97% compared to the same period in 2024.

  • Ethanol production jumped to 325 million gallons, up from 312 million the previous week and up 5.6% from the YA.

  • Soybean futures turn lower at midday, continuing to face pressure from sluggish U.S. exports and expectations of a large crop from South America. Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil turn lower at midday.

  • Heavy rains are forecast to arrive in the Pampas at the end of the week, potentially slowing the soybean harvest. However, the lack of rainfall in Brazil is allowing the harvest to progress smoothly. As of this week, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 69.8% complete, compared to 61.6% at this time last year and the five-year average of 64.9%.

  • Tariff negotiations continue to weigh on the soybean markets, as the lack of dialogue with China regarding trade limits any potential rallies, heightening concerns about the future of U.S. soybean demand.

  • U.S. soybean prices would be competitive with Brazil if not for the 10% tariff, as Brazilian soybean premiums have recently risen. To support prices, strong domestic soybean demand in the U.S. is crucial, as exports decline with a large volume of soybeans now available in Brazil.

  • Wheat markets remain mixed at midday, driven by ongoing weather concerns across the U.S.

  • Light precipitation has moved through western Kansas, but the rest of the southern Plains remain dry with very high winds. The extended forecast for the southern Plains offers little promise of rain over the next two weeks and beyond, with temperatures expected to remain above normal for the foreseeable future.

  • S&P Global has lowered its estimate for 2025 U.S. wheat acreage by 500,000 acres to 46.6 million, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 46.1 million.

  • LSEG left their Russian production estimate unchanged at 79.6 million tons vs the USDA at 81.5.

  • The phone call between President Trump and President Putin did not result in a ceasefire agreement; instead, they agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure. However, Ukraine accused Russia of attacking energy infrastructure within hours of the call. Trump and Zelensky are expected to speak today.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-19 Opening Update: Grains Mixed but Mostly Steady

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 459 0.25
JUL ’25 467.75 -0.25
DEC ’25 453.5 -0.75
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1015 2.25
JUL ’25 1028.75 2.25
NOV ’25 1017.25 1.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 566.75 1.75
JUL ’25 583.25 1.25
JUL ’26 645.25 -0.5
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 603.5 -2.75
JUL ’25 617 -2
JUL ’26 662.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 613.5 -0.5
JUL ’25 629.75 -0.5
SEP ’25 643 -0.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5684.75 15.5
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 66.67 -0.08
Gold
JUN ’25 3072.9 4

  • Dalian corn futures were lower, while South Brazil remains dry. US Northwest Midwest is also dry, and US PNW corn prices remain the cheapest for Asian buyers — with Gulf prices now competitive for North Africa.

  • Trade is eyeing lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.0 million acres (up from 90.6 million last year) and summer weather is normal. Domestic corn feed use is facing competition from wheat and sorghum.

  • US March 1 corn stocks could reach around 8,200 million bushels, down from 8,352 million last year.

  • The May/July soybean meal spread widened to a record -8.00. US soymeal export prices are around $347, compared to Argentina at $332. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower, while palm oil and soyoil were higher.

  • Rain in central Brazil is slowing the harvest, while southern Brazil and Argentina remain dry — though Argentina is expecting rain next week.

  • The USDA acreage and March 1 stocks report is next. Trade expects US 2025 soybean acres near 83.0 million (down from 87.0 million last year) and stocks around 1,880 million bushels (up from 1,845 million last year). Trade tensions, tariffs, and global weather continue to fuel uncertainty.

  • Wheat is supported by dry weather across the US Southern Plains and the Black Sea. However, futures are struggling near key moving average resistance due to concerns about export demand and slowing global economies.

  • EU wheat exports are down 34% year-over-year. Iraq announced plans to export 2 million metric tons of wheat (typically imports 2–4 million), while Russia’s export estimate is 40.0 million metric tons (vs USDA’s 45.0 and 55.0 last year).

  • US 2025 all-wheat acres could reach 46.6 million (up from 46.0 million last year). March 1 stocks are expected to be around 1,225 million bushels (up from 1,089 million last year). There’s also a chance of rain in Kansas.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.