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4-1 End of Day: Cautious Optimism Lifts Grains Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures followed soybeans higher on Tuesday, closing in positive territory, with new crop contracts leading the gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher today, gaining momentum from yesterday’s bullish Planting Intentions report. However, traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement set for tomorrow.

  • Wheat: Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain complex today but still managed to close higher across all contracts.

  • To see the updated 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S. as well as the 30-day total precipitation ranks by climate district, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices continued to climb throughout the session, supported by strength in the soybean complex and cautious optimism. Traders remain focused on the upcoming reciprocal tariffs set to take effect tomorrow, April 2nd, as well as ongoing analysis of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, which confirmed an increase in corn acreage for the year.

  • Heavy rains are expected to impact central Oklahoma and stretch northeast through Arkansas, Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana over the next five days, raising flood concerns that could delay spring fieldwork and planting.

  • The 5-day weather outlook for Brazil predicts warm temperatures, while the 15-day forecast indicates wet weather across most of the country, excluding the Northeast. While the wet conditions may delay the first corn harvest, they will be beneficial for the growth of second-crop corn across Brazil’s growing regions.

  • With the increase in corn acreage, ending stocks could easily surpass 2 billion bushels, with both old and new crop futures remaining strong. Corn demand continues to outpace expectations as U.S. corn remains one of the most affordable feed grains globally.

  • Brazil continues to challenge the U.S. for the title of top corn exporter, but the U.S. remains the leader, producing 1.8 times the combined output of Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher today, gaining momentum from yesterday’s bullish Planting Intentions report. However, traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement set for 2 p.m. Central Time tomorrow. Uncertainty remains over potential measures, with the risk of harsh tariffs — particularly against China — potentially pressuring prices. Within the soybean complex, soybean meal edged slightly lower, while soybean oil provided support.

  • Yesterday’s Prospective Plantings report pegged 2025 soybean acreage at 83.50 million acres, just below the average trade estimate of 83.76 million and notably lower than last year’s 87.05 million acres. Meanwhile, quarterly stocks aligned closely with expectations.

  • The USDA February soybean crush is expected to come in at 188.7 million bushels according to analysts, which would be down 11.2% from the 212.5 mb crushed in January and down 2.4% from January last year at 193.3 mb.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said 793k tons of soybeans were inspected for export which compared to 827k tons last week and 515k tons a year ago at this time. Export demand has been expectedly weak as Brazil remains competitive globally.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain complex today but still managed to close higher across all contracts. Given the smaller-than-expected acreage figure in yesterday’s USDA report, the market’s muted reaction was somewhat surprising. Forecasted rainfall across much of the U.S. may be tempering bullish momentum.

  • Select states released updated winter wheat crop conditions after yesterday’s close. The rating in Kansas held steady at 49% good to excellent. Conditions fell 9% in Montana, 4% in Oklahoma, 1% in South Dakota, and 5% in Texas, but increased 1% in Colorado and 7% in Nebraska.

  • Some private estimates out of Australia suggest that their wheat production this year may total only 28.6 mmt due to drought. If accurate, that would be a 16% decline from last year. New South Wales and Western Australia have decent soil moisture, but it is far too dry in Victoria and South Australia.

  • Argus has reduced their estimate of the Russian 25/26 wheat production to 80.3 mmt. This is down from 81.5 mmt previously. In the breakdown, the spring wheat was cut to 24.3 mmt due to a smaller planted area, but winter wheat actually increased to 56 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: Hit the 596.25 target vs the May contract today.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to today. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: Hit the 622.50 target vs the September contract today.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to today. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.dations made on the 2025 crop to date – hitting 622.50 would trigger the fifth.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-1 Midday: Grain Market Remains Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 460.75 3.5
JUL ’25 467.5 4.25
DEC ’25 446.25 4.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1029.75 15
JUL ’25 1043.5 15.25
NOV ’25 1032 12.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 539.75 2.75
JUL ’25 553.25 2.75
JUL ’26 622.25 1.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 561.5 4.5
JUL ’25 573.5 3.5
JUL ’26 636.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 595.75 3.75
JUL ’25 611.75 5
SEP ’25 624.5 4.75
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5675.5 22.25
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 71.08 0.13
Gold
JUN ’25 3158.3 8

  • Corn prices continue to build momentum at midday, mostly driven by reciprocal tariffs that will go into effect tomorrow.

  • Weather concerns could also be adding in premium to the corn market this week. Over the next 5 days, heavy rainfall will stretch across Oklahoma, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, and Indiana, increasing concerns over flooding.

  • Corn planting in the South is moving along rapidly. Louisiana jumped 20% to 81% complete. Texas planting progress jumped 10% from last week to 55% complete. Mississippi and Arkansas sit at 30% and 22% planted, respectively.

  • Soybean futures remain firm at midday, supported by yesterday’s report showing lower soybean acres in the U.S.

  • Agricultural Secretary, Brooke Rollins, announced that the USDA will be releasing more than $500 million to fund expansions in biofuel infrastructure across the country.

  • February Crush data will be released later today. Trade analysts see crush for the month at 188.7 mb. If realized, February crush would be down 11.2% from January and 2.4% from last year.

  • Wheat prices trend higher at midday on global production cuts and lower anticipated wheat acres.

  • Yesterday’s wheat conditions report showed Kansas unchanged from the week prior while Oklahoma and Texas fell 4% and 5% respectively. Nebraska improved 11% thanks to some beneficial rainfall.

  • Agricultural group, Argus, dropped their Russian wheat output to 80.3 mmt from 81.5 mmt in their last forecast.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-1 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Following Yesterday’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 461.25 4
JUL ’25 467.75 4.5
DEC ’25 445 3

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1018.75 4
JUL ’25 1032 3.75
NOV ’25 1022.25 3

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 541.25 4.25
JUL ’25 555 4.5
JUL ’26 622.5 1.5

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 560.75 3.75
JUL ’25 574 4
JUL ’26 636.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 597.25 5.25
JUL ’25 612 5.25
SEP ’25 624.75 5

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5631 -22.25

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 70.95 0

Gold

JUN ’25 3164.2 13.9

  • Corn is trading higher this morning despite a bearish acreage number released yesterday that was likely priced into the market last week. May futures are now trading above their 200-day moving average, but tomorrow’s tariff announcement could add pressure.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said that there would be 95.3 million acres of corn planted in 2025 which was above the average trade guess and compares to 90.6 ma last year. Corn stocks came in near expectations at 8.151 bb.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were good for corn at 1,614k tons which compared to 1,538k the previous week and 1,472k tons a year ago. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher to start the day after the USDA released a friendly acreage number that saw prices lower yesterday, but still relatively rangebound over the past month. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.

  • The USDA said yesterday that 83.5 million acres of soybeans would be planted in the US in 2025 which compared to the trade estimate of 83.8 ma and 87.1 ma in 2024. Grain stocks came in a hair above expectations at 1.910 bb.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said 793k tons of soybeans were inspected for export which compared to 827k tons last week and 515k tons a year ago at this time.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day with May Chicago wheat now 25 cents off its low from last Friday. Yesterday’s report was friendly with lower anticipated wheat acres.

  • The USDA estimated that 45.4 million acres of wheat would be planted in 2025 which compared to the average trade guess of 46.5 ma and 46.1 ma planted in 2024. Grain stocks came in at 1.237 bb which was slightly above the average guess.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 463k tons which compared to 485k tons the previous week and 569k tons a year ago at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-31 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower Following USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Futures ended mixed with gains centered in the front months, while a larger-than-expected planting estimate limited new crop gains.

  • Soybeans: Ended lower despite a supportive planting intentions report. Soybean meal and oil also ended the day lower.

  • Wheat: Led the grain complex higher Monday with spring wheat posting the largest gains. A supportive USDA report and solid export inspections provided a boost.

  • To see the updated USDA 2025 Corn and Soybean Planted Acreage by State Maps as well as the 7-day U.S. Precipitation outlook, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market ended mixed, with strong demand and a supportive Grain Stocks report lifting old crop prices, while a larger-than-expected planting estimate limited new crop gains.

  • The USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report projected 95.4 million acres of U.S. corn for the upcoming crop year — 965,000 acres above market expectations and 4.76 million acres more than last year. This marks the highest planted acreage since 2013-14, with the largest percentage increases seen in the Northwest and Southern regions, likely replacing soybean, spring wheat, and cotton acres.

  • March 1 quarterly grain stocks for corn came in at 8.151 billion bushels, aligning with market expectations but 200 million bushels below last year, reflecting strong demand in the first half of the marketing year.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning. Export inspections remain strong at 1.614 MMT (63.6 mb) and above market expectations. Total export shipments are still trending 31% ahead of last year.

  • With Monday’s USDA reports behind the market, attention now shifts to demand, South American weather, and looming tariff issues. The April 2 tariff deadline could be the most immediate factor influencing market direction.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 32,663 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net long 74,607 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current targets.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day despite a friendly Planting Intentions report. Much of this report seemed to be priced in over the course of last week, and now trade will focus on the upcoming tariffs which are set to be released on Wednesday. The size of the Brazilian soybean crop also remains a concern. Both soybean meal and oil were also lower to end the day.

  • The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report estimated 2025 soybean acreage at 83.50 million acres, slightly below the average trade estimate of 83.76 million acres and significantly lower than last year’s 87.05 million acres. Acreage adjustments remain possible ahead of planting.

  • The Quarterly Grain Stocks report was largely in line with expectations, with March 1 soybean stocks at 1.910 billion bushels, slightly above the trade estimate of 1.901 billion and up from 1.845 billion a year ago.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 20,954 contracts which increased their net short position to 42,959 contracts. They sold 17,009 contracts of bean oil and 23,037 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 20,954 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 42,959 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher, led by gains in spring wheat, as supportive USDA data, solid export inspections, and strength in Matif wheat provided a boost to the U.S. market.

  • The USDA estimated March 1 wheat stocks at 1.237 billion bushels, up from 1.089 billion a year ago and slightly above trade expectations. However, the acreage report was the real driver, with all wheat acreage projected at 45.4 million acres — on the low end of estimates and down from 46.1 million acres in 2024. If realized, this would be the second smallest wheat planted area since 1919.

  • In a breakdown by class, winter wheat acreage comes in at 33.3 ma, vs 33.4 ma last year. Spring wheat acres were projected at 10.0 ma, down from 10.6 ma a year ago. Finally, durum wheat acreage is estimated at 2.0 ma, compared with 2.1 ma in 2024.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 16 mb, bringing the total 24/25 inspections figure to 635 mb, up 16% from last year; this is slightly behind the USDA’s estimated pace. They are forecasting 24/25 exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has planted 551,800 hectares of spring grain is of last Friday – this is up 16% from the same time last year. Of that total, spring wheat has reached 79,800 hectares, up 17% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,919 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 92,587 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any new price targets. The recommendation remains to sit tight and stay the course for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,213 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 45,450 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 596.25 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 625 price target, which has been lowered to 596.25 vs May.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 622.50 against September for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • New Target: Today’s post-report price action activated a new target at 622.50. There have been four sales recommendations made on the 2025 crop to date – hitting 622.50 would trigger the fifth.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Today’s post-report price action didn’t trigger any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,153 contracts between March 18 – March 25, bringing their total position to a net short 23,719 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-31 Midday: Grains Mixed Ahead of USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 448.75 -4.5
JUL ’25 455.75 -4.25
DEC ’25 438.75 -3.75
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1029 6
JUL ’25 1043.5 6.25
NOV ’25 1035.25 6.25
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 528.25 0
JUL ’25 542.25 -0.5
JUL ’26 617.75 -0.5
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 554.5 2.75
JUL ’25 567.75 2.25
JUL ’26 636 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 584.5 3.5
JUL ’25 599 2.5
SEP ’25 612.75 2.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5588.25 -34.75
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 71.03 1.67
Gold
JUN ’25 3157.3 43

  • Corn futures are trading lower at midday ahead of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks report, set for release at 11 a.m. CDT.

  • With a flood of market-moving data and the end of both the month and quarter, afternoon trade could see increased volatility.

  • Heavy rainfall is expected over the next week across the Ohio and southern Mississippi River valleys, likely delaying early fieldwork. Meanwhile, next week’s forecast calls for cooler but drier conditions across much of the U.S.

  • In Brazil, weather remains favorable for second-crop corn, with normal to above-normal moisture expected over the next two weeks. Given historically tight domestic corn stocks, weather conditions will remain a key focus in the months ahead.

  • Soybean futures are higher at midday ahead of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks report.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 81% completion late last week, ahead of last year’s pace of 73.6% for the same period.

  • The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report is expected to estimate soybean acreage at 83.8 million acres, down 3.3 million from last year due to weaker profitability compared to corn.

  • Wheat futures are slightly higher at midday Monday after hitting new contract lows late last week in both Chicago and Minneapolis.

  • Weak export sales and forecasts for moisture in parts of the Plains contributed to last week’s price drop.

  • Expectations for today’s USDA report calls for all wheat seedings at 46.48 million acres, up from 46.10 million in 2024, with quarterly stocks expected at 1.215 billion bushels, an increase from 1.087 billion last March.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-31 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher Ahead of Acreage Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 452.75 -0.5
JUL ’25 459.25 -0.75
DEC ’25 441.5 -1

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1027.5 4.5
JUL ’25 1041.75 4.5
NOV ’25 1032.5 3.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 527.5 -0.75
JUL ’25 542 -0.75
JUL ’26 618 -0.25

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 546 -5.75
JUL ’25 560.25 -5.25
JUL ’26 636 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 578.5 -2.5
JUL ’25 594.25 -2.25
SEP ’25 608.25 -2

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5565.5 -57.5

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 69.66 0.3

Gold

JUN ’25 3150.6 36.3

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day ahead of the planting intentions report where trade is anticipating a higher number of corn acres. Grain stocks will also be released today and corn is forecast around 8.15 billion.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn by 32,663 contracts which reduced their net long position to 74,607 contracts.

  • Estimates for today’s planting intentions report see corn acres at 94.4 million with a range between 92.5 and 96.6 million. This compares to the USDA’s outlook forum at 94.0 ma and 90.6 ma planted last year.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning with the expectation that planting intentions will be on the low side in favor of higher corn acres. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 20,954 contracts which increased their net short position to 42,959 contracts. They sold 17,009 contracts of bean oil and 23,037 contracts of meal.

  • Estimates for today’s planting intentions report for soybeans see acreage at 83.8 million with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s guess of 84.0 ma and last year’s plantings of 87.1 ma.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. This trend lower in wheat comes despite lower anticipated production  in the US and in the Black Sea region as a maritime truce could make it easier to ship grain.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 11,919 contracts which left them short 92,587 contracts. They bought back 1,213 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 45,450 contracts.

  • Estimates for today’s Planting Intentions report see wheat acres at 46.5 million with a range between 45.4 and 47.1 million. This would compare to 46.1 million acres last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-28 End of Day: Grains End the Week Mixed Ahead of Monday’s USDA Plantings Intentions Report

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets ended the week’s trade mixed, with new crop prices remaining under pressure due to expectations of a significant increase in corn acreage for the upcoming crop year.

  • Soybeans: Soybean prices rebounded from early-day lows to close higher for the second consecutive session, as traders anticipate the USDA’s upcoming planting intentions report on Monday.

  • Wheat: Wheat continued its downward trend today, posting losses across all classes, as weakness was attributed to the forecasted rain in the coming days.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC as well as the 8-10 day precipitation anomaly and 5-10 day average temperature anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • In Holding Pattern: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year. Still no active targets going into Monday.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • All Eyes on Monday: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports — typically one of the most volatile report days of the year. The upside call exit target is out of reach for Monday, but the put exit target could come into play if the December contract locked the 30-cent limit down.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The front end of the corn market saw some short covering and potential value buying to close out Friday’s session, with corn futures ending mixed. New crop prices remained under pressure due to expectations that the USDA’s prospective planting report will forecast a significant increase in planted acres for the upcoming spring planting season. For the week, May corn futures finished 11 cents lower.

  • USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report on Monday, March 31. Expectations for corn acres are to be near 94.36 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from last year. The analyst range is wide from 92.5-96.6 million acres. The prospect of an exceptionally large acreage forecast is limiting the new crop corn market in anticipation of Monday’s report. 

  • The USDA will also release the March 1 Grain Stocks report on Monday, with expectations for total corn stocks to be around 8.151 bb. This would represent a decrease of nearly 200 mb from last year’s report, although demand remained strong during the quarter. One area of uncertainty could be feed usage, as lower numbers of cattle, hogs, and poultry, along with favorable feed wheat prices, may have limited corn usage for feed during the quarter.

  • Besides Monday’s report, the grain markets will be watch and development of trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico as the deadline for the April 2 extension nears. Mexico remains the largest buyer of US corn on the export market.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Eyes Ahead: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports — historically one of the most volatile report days of the year. A limit move in soybeans is 70 cents, so in the event of a bullish surprise, the 1079.75 call target could come into play.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Countdown to USDA: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.  Both upside targets remain out of reach, even in the event of an extremely bullish report.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the second consecutive day, recovering from early morning lows as traders seem to be factoring in a lower acreage figure in anticipation of Monday’s Planting Intentions report. Soybean oil led the rally within the complex, driven by President Trump’s endorsement of a new biofuel policy, while soybean meal ended the day lower.

  • Estimates for the planting intentions report on Monday see soybean acreage coming in at 83.8 million acres with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s guess of 84.0 ma and last year’s plantings of 87.1 ma.

  • For the week, May soybeans gained 13-1/4 cents while November soybeans gained 21-1/4. The deferred months saw larger gains due to the expected decline in planted acres. May soybean meal lost $6.80 on the week finishing at $293.50 while May soybean oil gained 3.15 cents to 45.16 cents, the highest level since the end of February.

  • U.S. soybean export demand has been on a downward trend, largely due to the abundant supply of soybeans coming out of Brazil. Brazil’s soybean exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt more than 2 mmt higher than the same period last year.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted losses across all classes, with Kansas City futures leading the decline. The weakness was driven by an increased precipitation forecast, particularly with the European weather model predicting significant rainfall in the U.S. Southern Plains next week.

  • According to the European Commission, 25/26 grain production in the EU is forecast at 280.7 mmt, which would be 10% above the 24/25 season. That is also about 3% over the five-year average. Soft wheat is estimated at 126.5 mmt for next season, which is 13% above the current season.

  •  The Russian deputy ag minister has stated that their nation harvested 129.8 mmt of grain in 2024, according to data from Rosstat. He went on to say that despite last year’s unfavorable weather, it was a decent harvest.

  • The average pre-report estimates for wheat acreage, based on a Dow Jones survey, comes in at 46.4 million acres. This would be up 300,000 acres from 2024. When broken down by class, it would be 33.9 ma of winter wheat, 10.5 ma of spring wheat, and 2.1 ma of durum wheat. As far as stocks go, the average pre-report estimate is 1.22 bb as of March 1 – this would be up 12% versus 2024.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Brace for Impact: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Steady as She Goes: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Strap In: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Buckle Up for Monday: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Waiting Game: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Mission – Sit Tight: No strategy changes ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. This is typically one of the most volatile report days of the year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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3-28 Midday: Grains Continue Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 448 -2
JUL ’25 455.25 -2.75
DEC ’25 440.75 -3
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1013.75 -3
JUL ’25 1028.25 -2.25
NOV ’25 1019.5 -1
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 523 -9
JUL ’25 537.5 -9.75
JUL ’26 615 -7.75
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 549.5 -16.75
JUL ’25 563 -16.75
JUL ’26 633 -14.5
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 575.5 -13
JUL ’25 591.5 -11.75
SEP ’25 606 -10.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5651.75 -87.5
Crude Oil
MAY ’25 69.54 -0.38
Gold
JUN ’25 3114.6 23.7

  • Corn futures are experiencing a pullback at midday, driven by weakness in the wheat markets, along with President Trump’s threats of significantly higher tariffs if Canada and Mexico collaborate against the US.

  • The corn markets continue to show weakness in Friday’s trade as traders await the USDA report set to be released on Monday. The USDA is expected to estimate corn acreage at 94.36 million, significantly higher than last year’s 90.6 million.

  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange pegged Argentine conditions at 27% good/excellent, down 2% from last week and compared to 22% last year. Harvest in this area is estimated to be 19.2%  completed.

  • The soybean market remains on a downward trend at midday as traders position themselves ahead of what is expected to be a volatile trading session on Monday, with the release of the USDA’s anticipated acreage report and a potential tariff announcement next week. Meanwhile, soybean oil continues to gain momentum, posting gains.

  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s bean conditions 1% to 32% good to excellent compared to 31% last year.

  • Argentina’s soybean sales so far have been the slowest in 10 years at 8.4 million tons, or 18% of the crop, due to worries over a weakening currency.

  • AgroConsult, following a recent crop tour, raised their Brazilian production forecast to 172.1 million tons, up from the USDA’s estimate of 169 million tons, citing record yields in six Brazilian states.

  • In the US, the central and eastern Corn Belt regions are expected to receive rainfall over the next week, which should significantly improve soil moisture levels before planting, though it may also cause some delays in fieldwork.

  • The entire wheat complex is trading lower at midday, driven by improvements in global wheat growing regions, weak demand, and a soft technical outlook.

  • Wheat is facing pressure from improved chances of rain in the Black Sea region next week, along with showers expected in eastern Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota over the next five days. However, this rainfall is forecast to miss the Southwest Plains once again.

  • Monday’s USDA report is expecting all wheat seedings at 46.48 million acres, up from 46.10 in 2024 and quarterly stocks are expected at 1.215 billion bushels, up from 1.087 in March last year.

  • The potential activation of the Black Sea transportation agreement has caused Romanian and Bulgarian wheat prices to drop sharply, although US SRW remains the cheapest origin.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-28 Opening Update: Grain Complex Trading Lower Ahead of Planting Intentions

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 445.75 -4.25
JUL ’25 454 -4
DEC ’25 440.75 -3

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1012 -4.75
JUL ’25 1026.25 -4.25
NOV ’25 1016.75 -3.75

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 525.25 -6.75
JUL ’25 540.5 -6.75
JUL ’26 616 -6.75

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 554.75 -11.5
JUL ’25 568 -11.75
JUL ’26 647.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 583.5 -5
JUL ’25 598.5 -4.75
SEP ’25 611.75 -4.75

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5732.5 -6.75

Crude Oil

MAY ’25 69.82 -0.1

Gold

JUN ’25 3114.3 23.4

  • Corn is trading lower to start the day and overnight got only 3 cents within the low earlier this month at $4.42-1/2 ahead of the planting intentions report in which traders are expecting a large acreage number.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was on the light side for corn but came in within trade expectations. 1,040k tons of corn were sold which compares to 1,558k last week and 1,333k last year. Top destinations were to Japan, Mexico, and Colombia.

  • Estimates for the planting intentions report on Monday see corn acres at 94.4 million with a range between 92.5 and 96.6 million. This compares to the USDA’s outlook forum at 94.0 ma and 90.6 ma planted last year.

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start the day in overall risk-off trade across the grain market. Despite trading lower today, prices are near the top of their recent range following yesterday’s double digit gains. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.

  • According to Agroconsult, the Brazilian soybean crop is seen at 172.1 mmt after their crop tour. This would be an increase from their estimate last month of 171.3 mmt.

  • Estimates for the planting intentions report for soybeans see acreage at 83.8 million with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s guess of 84.0 ma and last year’s plantings of 87.1 ma.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with May Chicago wheat making new contract lows overnight. The potential maritime ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia has pressured wheat futures.

  • Yesterday’s export sales in wheat of 111.5k tons were on the lower end of analyst estimates and compare to 242.3k last week and 552.4k last year. Primary destinations were to Japan, Nigeria, and the Philippines.

  • Estimates for Monday’s Planting Intentions report see wheat acres at 46.5 million with a range between 45.4 and 47.1 million. This would compare to 46.1 million acres last year.

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3-27 End of Day: Soybeans Close Higher, While Corn and Wheat Trend Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Despite a positive export sales report, the corn market ended the trading day lower, continuing to face pressure from large acreage projections for the spring.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher today, driven by a surge in soybean oil, which provided support to the entire soy complex.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed today as weather forecasts improved for the Black Sea region and U.S. Plains, with an increased chance of precipitation.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure persisted in the corn market despite a supportive export sales report, as large acreage projections continue to weigh on the market. May corn recorded its lowest close since December 19 during the session.

  • For the week, sellers have been in control of the corn market as the momentum has triggered follow-through selling and long liquidation. Going into Friday’s session, May corn is trading 14 ¼ cents lower on the week.

  • USDA release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending March 20, exporters reported new sales of 1.040 MMT (40.9 mb). Japan was the largest buyer of US corn for the week. Total corn export sales for the current marketing year are up 24% from last year and ahead of pace to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report on Monday March 31. Expectations for corn acres are to be near 94.36 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from last year. The market is hearing talk of a “whisper” number that could reach as high as 96 million acres. The prospect of an exceptionally large acreage forecast is limiting the corn market in anticipation of Monday’s report.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week. 

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The entire soy complex closed higher in Thursday’s trading session, breaking through nearby resistance levels. Soybean oil futures surged for the fourth consecutive day, driven by optimism surrounding biodiesel blending, which provided strong support to the soybean market.

  • U.S. soybean export demand has been on a downward trend, largely due to the abundant supply of soybeans coming out of Brazil. Brazil’s soybean exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt more than 2 mmt higher than the same period last year.

  • South American weather is expected to remain favorable as the growing season wraps up and harvest continues. The soybean harvest in Brazil is now 76% complete, ahead of the average pace by 10% for this time of year.

  • U.S. soybean sales for the week ending March 20th totaled 12.4 million bushels (mb) for the 2024/2025 marketing year, along with a decrease of 800,000 mt for the 2025/2026 marketing year. Shipments reached 33.9 mb, exceeding the 14 mb required to meet the 1.826 bb target. Total soybean commitments now stand at 1.681 bb, up 13% compared to the same period last year.

  • Weather is becoming a growing concern for traders as soybean planting season approaches in the U.S., with 42% of the soybean-growing area currently facing drought conditions.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in mixed fashion, posting small losses in Chicago futures, with even smaller gains in Kansas City. Paris milling wheat futures also closed down by 3.00 to 3.75 Euros/mt. Weakness seems to have stemmed in large part from forecasts with better chances of rain in both the Black Sea region and the US plains. Weekly export sales were also soft, adding to pressure in the market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 3.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 15.8 mb, which falls below the 21.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 835 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 768 mb which is up 12% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 25, U.S. winter wheat areas saw a significant reduction in drought conditions. Only 14% of winter wheat acres are currently experiencing drought, compared to 34% the previous week. Spring wheat acres in drought also improved during the same period, now estimated at 21%, down from 39% a week ago.

  • According to their ag ministry, Ukrainian grain exports are said to have totaled 32.2 mmt so far this season, which would be a decline of 6% from a year ago. Wheat specifically accounts for 12.9 mmt of exports, but that is down 4.4% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B. 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

    • Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.