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4-7 Opening Update: Corn Lower, Soybeans and Wheat Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 459 -1.25
JUL ’25 466.25 -1
DEC ’25 444.25 -2.5

Soybeans

MAY ’25 979.25 2.25
JUL ’25 994 1
NOV ’25 983.5 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 528 -1
JUL ’25 541.5 -1.25
JUL ’26 621 4

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 558.25 0.75
JUL ’25 570.25 0.25
JUL ’26 635.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 584.75 0.25
JUL ’25 599.5 -0.25
SEP ’25 612 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5021 -89.25

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 60.33 -1.32

Gold

JUN ’25 3060.1 24.7

  • Corn is slightly lower to start the week as the equity markets continue to slide, but May corn has managed to stay above its 200-day moving average which is important support. The trade war has created an uncertain environment for commodities.

  • This Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and analysts are expecting a decline in corn ending stocks as a result of higher export demand. Argentinian and Brazilian corn production are expected to be lowered as well.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as net sellers of corn by 17,850 contracts which left them with a net long position of 56,757 contracts.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with the two front months slightly higher but all deferred months trading lower. Markets are still reeling from China’s tariff retaliation of 34% on all US imports and soybeans have been the hardest of the grains hit. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • In Brazil, soybean exports rose by 17% year over year in March, and harvest in the country is now 85.83% complete . This compares to 79.36% complete at this time last season.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 13,112 contracts as of April 1, before the tariffs were announced, which left them with a net short position of 29,847 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 38,856 contracts and sellers of bean meal by 16,683 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher to start the day, but May Chicago wheat is only 12 cents away from its contract low. Futures have been mostly rangebound over the past week but have been volatile with big losses in the equity markets.

  • The USDA ag attaché in India sees the 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt which would be a third year of record production. Planted acreage is expected to be higher and growing conditions expected to be optimal.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of wheat by 19,453 contracts which left them short 112,040 contracts. They sold 225 contracts of KC wheat which left them with a net short position of 45,675 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-4 End of Day: China Tariff News Drives Soybeans and Wheat Lower, While Corn Ends Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn prices ended the week mixed, with the market showing resilience despite news of China’s new tariffs. While the tariff announcement initially weighed on sentiment, the impact on corn prices was limited, as China’s imports of U.S. corn have remained relatively modest.

  • Soybeans: News of the new tariffs imposed by China on all U.S. imports caused the soybean market to close sharply lower today, marking the second consecutive day of losses.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices ultimately ended the day with losses across the board, pressured by the tariff news and a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index.

  • To see the updated monthly temperature and precipitation US outlooks from the CPC as well as the 8-10 day precipitation anomaly and 10-15 day average temperature anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No New Targets: No new targets to note at this time. The corn market is holding up surprisingly well given how other markets have reacted since ‘Liberation Day’. A positive sign for higher prices ahead? Continue to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time. Given how well the corn market is holding up, we’re content to continue sitting tight — with only the options exit targets currently active.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • MO: The Grain Market Insider strategy is built on a foundation of early corn sales.

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite aggressive selling to close the week, the corn market remained resilient, pushing back against early-session selling pressure as concerns over the potential trade war and tariff impacts weighed on the markets. Corn futures ended the week mixed, with buying strength concentrated in the front end of the market. For the week, May corn futures closed higher, gaining 7 cents.

  • China announced a counter tariff to the recently announced U.S. tariffs on Wednesday. China will impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. good imported into China. The prospects of the growing trade war sent selling pressure across the market, and limited gains in corn.

  • The corn market stayed supported by the prospects of a tightening U.S. and global corn supply picture. Currently, U.S. export demand and ethanol usage is running ahead of USDA targets for the marketing year. Market analysts are looking to next week’s USDA WASDE report for an increase in corn demand on the balance sheet which could move corn carryout down from its current 1.540 billion bushel level for the 2024-25 marketing year.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a powerful spring storm moving through the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils could raise concerns about potential planting delays.

  • As we head into next week, traders will be closely monitoring headlines regarding the ongoing tariff situation and negotiations with other countries. The tariff package announced by President Trump on Wednesday is set to take effect on April 9, leaving a window for potential changes to the plan as tariff negotiations continue.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower for the second consecutive day after China announced overnight that they would place retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all U.S. imports. Since President Trump announced the tariffs, May soybeans have lost over 50 cents and have been the hardest hit out of the grains. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • In South America, harvest conditions remain cooperative overall, but there have been some excess rains in Argentina have delayed the start of harvest as fields are too wet for tractors. Soybean production is still forecast at 49.0 mmt with yields in the central region better than expected.

  • Yesterday, OPEC announced they would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, equivalent to three monthly increments. They cited healthy fundamentals and a positive market outlook. This caused crude oil futures to drop by over $5 per barrel again today, which in turn led to a decline in soybean oil prices as well. Crude has lost nearly 10 dollars a barrel over the past two days.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 46 cents while November soybeans lost 44-3/4 cents. May soybean meal lost $10.40 to $283.10, and May soybean oil managed to gain 0.68 cents to 45.84 cents.

Soybeans Break on Tariff News
Soybean futures tested their long-standing ceiling at the 200-day moving average in early 2025—a level that has capped rallies for the past 18 months. However, as March progressed, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America sparked a sharp selloff, dragging prices lower. Despite the drop, the psychologically important 1000 level initially held as support.
That changed in April when newly announced tariffs triggered another leg down, breaking below key support. The next major support is expected near 950, while on any recovery, initial resistance returns at 1000. Above that, the 200-day moving average remains a key technical barrier that the market has struggled to overcome.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board as tariff headlines remained the main focus for traders, driving sell-offs in both equity and commodity markets. Additionally, a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index today contributed to a weaker outlook for the wheat complex.

  • Some regions of western Kansas saw rains over the past 24 hours, which will offer some relief from drought conditions. However, more will be needed in the long run. The forecast into next week shows warmer and drier conditions for the Southern Plains.

  • According to the USDA as of April 1, about 37% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up from just 14% the week before. Additionally, drought in spring wheat areas also jumped during the same time period, from 21% to 39%.

  • The U.S. ag attaché for China is anticipating higher corn, rice, and wheat production in the 25/26 season. The wheat planted area is expected to remain stable but also show improved yields, leading to a bigger harvest. In related news, China has issued retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag goods, including 15% on wheat.

  • Since their season began on July 1, Ukrainian total grain exports have reached 33 mmt, which is down 8.4% year over year. Wheat exports specifically have totaled 13.2 mmt, down close to 7% versus the same timeframe last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 701.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 705.50.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 704.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted yet. The recommendation remains to sit tight as the market continues to search for a base.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No adjustments to the current strategy — with just one active sales target at 677.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-4 Midday: Grains Push Lower Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 459.75 2.25
JUL ’25 467.5 2
DEC ’25 447.25 -0.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 983.5 -28
JUL ’25 999.75 -26.5
NOV ’25 991.75 -25.25
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 529.75 -6.25
JUL ’25 543.25 -6.75
JUL ’26 615.75 -7.75
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 557 -12
JUL ’25 569.75 -11
JUL ’26 630.5 -13.75
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 585 -6.25
JUL ’25 600 -7
SEP ’25 613 -7.75
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5256.75 -176
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 62.63 -3.84
Gold
JUN ’25 3057.7 -64

  • Corn futures are trading lower at midday, facing mild pressure following China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs. The tariffs, while notable, have a relatively minor impact on U.S. corn prices. This is largely due to China’s imports of U.S. corn have been modest, as the country has been increasing its domestic corn production.

  • The tariff announcement this past Wednesday continues to affect the market, although the direct impact on corn remains limited for the time being. This is due to Mexico, a key trade partner, being exempt from the tariffs under the USMCA agreement.

  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange pegged Argentine’s crop conditions at 33% good/excellent, up 6% on the week although they did mention concerns of upcoming frosts in the center-west and southern areas over the next week. The corn harvest in Argentina is currently 20% completed.

  • The US corn area under drought stands at 39% but that number is shrinking as precipitation continues across the eastern and southern Midwest.

  • Soybeans continue to trend lower at midday across the entire soy complex, pressured by China’s announcement of tariff retaliation. This has caused May beans to drop to their lowest level since Christmas Eve, amid significant outside market pressure.

  • China announced at 5 am today that they will now charge a 34% tariff on all US goods starting April 10th to match President Trump’s reciprocal tariff.

  • China was the top buyer of US soybeans again last week, but the new 35% level will certainly end any China demand for US beans.

  • The US soybean area that is under drought stands at 33% but expected soil moisture replenishment is expected to continue across the eastern and southeastern bean belt.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that wet weather has delayed the start of Argentina’s harvest, though dry conditions are expected in the near future.

  • Wheat prices are moving lower at midday across the entire wheat complex, as beneficial precipitation moved through the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma overnight, with more expected over the next couple of days. This is providing relief to the drier areas.

  • US winter wheat under drought stands at 37% but is expected to see improvement this week with the beneficial rains.

  • Ukraine’s wheat exports for the marketing year so far stand at 13.2 million tons, down 7% year over year.

  • French SRW conditions rose 2% last week to 76% good to excellent.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-4 Opening Update: Grains Lower After China Announces Heavy Reciprocal Tariffs on US Imports

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 452 -5.5
JUL ’25 460 -5.5
DEC ’25 442.25 -5.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 989.75 -21.75
JUL ’25 1005.75 -20.5
NOV ’25 993.25 -23.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 525.5 -10.5
JUL ’25 539.25 -10.75
JUL ’26 614.75 -8.75
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 558.25 -10.75
JUL ’25 570.75 -10
JUL ’26 644.25 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 584.25 -7
JUL ’25 600 -7
SEP ’25 613 -7.75
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5272.5 -160.25
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 61.73 -4.74
Gold
JUN ’25 3155.4 33.7

  • Corn is trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex after China announced 34% tariffs on all US imports in retaliation to President Trump’s tariff plan. Equities are sharply lower again today.

  • A key factor in the US new tariff plan was that there were no additional tariffs added to Mexico or Canada, and because of this, corn futures were able to come off their lows yesterday for a nearly even close. China has not bought US corn this year.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales at 1,338k tons which compared to 1,040k a week ago and 959k tons a year ago at this time. Top buyers were South Korea, Japan, and Mexico.

  • Soybeans are trading sharply lower again this morning following China’s tariff announcement, and soybeans have been the hardest hit by the tariffs as China is typically the top buyer of US beans. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.

  • Soybean oil is down over 2 cents as crude oil plummets another 5 dollars a barrel in addition to yesterday’s losses. OPEC has said they would increase output by over 400,000 barrels a day next month.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales at 414k tons which compared to 317k last week and 194k tons a year ago at this time. The top buyers were China, Taiwan, and Indonesia. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower again today as tariff news continues to weigh on commodities. Chicago wheat is posting the majority of losses with KC wheat not far behind. Weather remains bullish, but is overshadowed by tariff news.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales above expectations at 435k tons which compared to 112k last week and 278k a year ago. Top buyers were Taiwan, Ecuador, and Japan.

  • The USDA ag attaché in India sees the 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt which would be a third year of record production. Planted acreage is expected to be higher and growing conditions expected to be optimal.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-3 End of Day: Grains Close Mixed as Traders Analyze Potential Tariff Impacts

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn markets closed the trading day mixed, as traders continue to assess the tariff announcements released yesterday afternoon and determine the potential impacts on the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed significantly lower today following yesterday’s tariff announcements, as traders expressed concern over the heavy tariffs imposed on China and baseline tariffs placed on other countries.

  • Wheat: Wheat finished Thursday’s trade mixed, influenced by a drop in the U.S. dollar, as the tariff announcements appeared to have little impact on the wheat markets.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop today. This is the second sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Hit the 456 target vs December ‘26 yesterday.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the session mixed to mostly lower. It was a ‘risk-off’ day across the markets as traders digested the potential impacts of President Trump’s tariff announcement made late Monday afternoon. Strong selling pressure in the soybean market, along with negative movement in outside markets, limited the corn market’s potential, despite a supportive export sales report.

  • The corn futures market “gapped” open on last night’s session on strong selling pressure. As corn prices challenged recent levels of support, value buyers stepped into the market, lifting corn prices off the lows of the session. The firm close brings some optimism to the corn market going into Friday’s trade. May corn is still 4 ¼ cents higher on the week going into Friday.

  • The strong demand tone lifted corn futures off the session lows on Thursday as the USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week of March 27, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.173 MMT (46.2 mb) of corn for the marketing year. This was within expectations, and current corn sales are still trending 24% higher year over year. South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a powerful spring storm moving across the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils may raise concerns about potential planting delays.

  • Following the tariff announcements, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped sharply, reaching its lowest point since October. The weaker dollar should help mitigate some of the impacts of the tariffs, supporting the corn market as the demand outlook remains positive.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower to end the day, following the steep tariffs imposed on China and other countries by President Trump yesterday afternoon. China bore the brunt of the tariffs at 34%, while other countries faced a baseline tariff of 10%. Soybeans and soybean oil declined amid concerns of trade retaliation, while soybean meal saw a slight increase.

  • Export sales were released today but were mostly overshadowed by the tariff news. Soybean sales totaled 15.1 mb for 24/25 and 0.1 mb for 25/26, which was within the average trade estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 30.9 mb were above the 13.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • Earlier today, OPEC announced they would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, equivalent to three monthly increments. They cited healthy fundamentals and a positive market outlook. This caused crude oil futures to drop by over $5 per barrel, which in turn led to a decline in soybean oil prices as well.

  • U.S. soybean crush for February totaled 189 million bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 188.7 mb. However, this was still 2.3% below last year’s February total and significantly lower than January’s crush of 212.6 mb.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures closed lower, while Kansas City posted modest gains. Despite the weakness from tariffs, wheat seemed to shrug off the impact to a large extent. The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant drop this session, which may have contributed to wheat’s relative strength; as of this writing, the index is down 1.73 at 102.07.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 3.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.4 mb, but this was below the 22.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 835 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 780 mb, which is up 13% from last year.

  • The U.S. ag attaché to India has estimated their 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt. If realized, this would be a result of higher planting across 32.6 million hectares, as well as optimal growing conditions. However, this would assume normal weather through harvest.

  • According to Interfax, the Russian ag ministry is said to have issued the order to distribute the remaining 2025 wheat export quota to 24 companies. The quota, in effect between February 15 and June 30, totals just 10.6 mmt. About 8.6 mmt was already shipped between February and early March.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-3 Midday: Corn and Wheat Reverse Higher, Soybeans Remain Under Pressure at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 460.5 2.75
JUL ’25 468 2.75
DEC ’25 448 -0.75
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1017.25 -12.25
JUL ’25 1032 -13
NOV ’25 1022.5 -14.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 538.75 -0.5
JUL ’25 553 0.25
JUL ’26 625.5 2
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 569.75 1.25
JUL ’25 581.25 1.5
JUL ’26 636 -6
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 594 1.5
JUL ’25 609.75 1.75
SEP ’25 623.25 1
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5480.75 -231.5
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 65.91 -5.32
Gold
JUN ’25 3131.3 -34.9

  • Corn futures are getting some support from the wheat market at midday as prices start to turn higher. Flooding concerns across the southern half of the Midwest and the Delta could slow planting progress down, which will be viewed as supportive for prices as well.

  • Weekly corn exports were in line with trade expectations at 53 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 2.135 billion bushels, up 24% from last year.

  • Sweeping tariffs turned the corn market bearish overnight but concerns have been limited as Mexico and Canada will still receive exemptions due to the USMCA agreement.

  • Soybeans remain weaker at midday after yesterday’s newly added tariffs which brings concerns over China’s import business from the US. The new levy is now up to 54% for Chinese imports which could certainly sideline business from the country for the foreseeable future.

  • Weekly soybean exports came in at 15 mb, which was on the low end of expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.696 billion bushels, up 14% from a year ago.

  • The USDA Attache in Mexico reported that increased demand for meal and oil could raise Mexico’s soybean imports from the US by 1%.

  • Wheat prices have erased double-digit losses from this morning, now trading unchanged or slightly higher at midday, supported by the dollar falling.

  • Weekly wheat exports totaled 16 mb, which was in line with trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments sit at 780 mb, which is up 13% from last year.

  • The USDA Attache in India says that total wheat production in the country for the 25/26 season could reach a record 115 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-3 Opening Update: Grains Sharply Lower Following Sweeping Tariffs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 449.5 -8.25
JUL ’25 457 -8.25
DEC ’25 442 -6.75
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1007.5 -22
JUL ’25 1023.25 -21.75
NOV ’25 1017.25 -20
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 526.25 -13
JUL ’25 540.5 -12.25
JUL ’26 618.75 -4.75
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 557.5 -11
JUL ’25 569.75 -10
JUL ’26 636 -6
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 585.25 -7.25
JUL ’25 600.75 -7.25
SEP ’25 614.75 -7.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5517.5 -194.75
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 67.58 -3.65
Gold
JUN ’25 3116.3 -49.9

  • Corn is down this morning after yesterday afternoon, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on all imports with a baseline rate of 10% and higher rates for most other countries. These tariffs were more harsh than expected and are pressuring the grains and equities.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 600k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,017k tons. This would compare to 1,040k a week ago and 959k a year ago at this time.

  • Domestic Brazil corn basis remains firm due to higher ethanol production. Dalian corn futures moved higher, while EU corn exports are down 35% year over year. The U.S. and Argentina currently offer the lowest-priced export corn.

  • Soybeans are trading sharply lower this morning gapping lower following the tariff announcement in which President Trump said that the US would impose 34% tariffs on all good imported from China, more than analysts expected. There is now a fear of retaliatory tariffs, and both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 800k tons with an average estimate of 408k tons. This would compare to 317k last week and 137k tons a year ago at this time.

  • A crop scout estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 169 MMT and Argentina’s at 48 MMT. Meanwhile, Argentine customs workers announced a two-day strike.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex in overall risk off trade. US weather for HRW wheat is a concern, but tariff news is overshadowing everything else.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between a net sales reduction of 100k tons and sales of 500k tons with an average guess of 250k tons. This would compare to 112k last week and 278k a year ago at this time.

  • The USDA ag attaché in India sees the 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt which would be a third year of record production. Planted acreage is expected to be higher and growing conditions expected to be optimal.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-2 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended lower as uncertainty around tariffs led traders to reduce risk exposure.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower again on Wednesday. The bullish acreage report from Monday has taken a backseat to tariffs as the market awaits further clarity.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed, with Kansas City contracts posting gains while Chicago and Minneapolis futures finished lower.

  • To see the updated 5-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for the U.S. as well as the 14-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The recommendation remains to sit tight yet.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 456 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.

    • New Target: A second sale target for the 2026 crop has been activated at 456.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended mixed to mostly lower as selling pressure weighed on the front end of the market. Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff announcement, set for release after Wednesday’s market close, likely led traders to reduce risk exposure.

  • The corn market remains on edge over potential retaliatory tariffs from key trading partners, which could add further downside pressure in the coming sessions.

  • Weekly ethanol production increased week over week to 312.5 million gallons/day, up 2.5 million gallons over last week. A total of 106.5 mb of corn was used last week to produce ethanol. This total was still trending slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for the week ending March 27, the total of new sales should range between 800,000-1.6 MMT for the week. Last week, new sales totaled 1.083 MMT of corn, within expectations. The USDA hasn’t announced a published corn sale of over 100,000 mt since March 14.

  • Traders are closely monitoring a strong spring storm moving across the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils could raise concerns about planting delays.

Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline—potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report now behind us, weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action activated an additional sales target at 1093 vs November. With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement at 3 pm central this afternoon with concerns over retaliatory tariffs from China. Monday’s bullish acreage report seems to be taking a backseat until this announcement is out of the way. Soybean oil has been strong and closed higher, but soybean meal ended the day lower.

  • Optimism surrounding potential improvements in U.S. biofuel subsidy policy provided support for soybean oil and soybean futures over the past two sessions. Soybean oil futures managed to close higher today despite tariff-related uncertainty, signaling resilience. Additionally, reports suggest the U.S. may offer soybean oil to India at reduced tariff rates.

  • U.S. soybean crush for February totaled 189 million bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 188.7 mb. However, this was still 2.3% below last year’s February total and significantly lower than January’s crush of 212.6 mb.

  • StoneX has reduced its outlook for the Brazilian soybean crop for 24/25 to 167.5 mmt. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt but would still be 12% larger than last year’s crop. Primary reductions were in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul with a cut of 6.6% as a result of dryness.

Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed, with Kansas City contracts posting gains, while Chicago and Minneapolis futures finished lower. Storms moving across the Midwest may be limiting the upside for soft red winter (SRW) wheat by improving soil moisture, while the southwestern Plains could miss out on much-needed precipitation, lending support to hard red winter (HRW) wheat. Ongoing concerns over tariffs and trade uncertainty likely contributed to the market’s mixed performance.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.7 mmt as of March 20 since the season began on July 1. This is a 36% drop year over year, as 24.5 mmt of wheat was exported during the same time last year.

  • The Ukrainian farm producer’s union, UAC, said that wheat exports for April are expected at 1 mmt. This remains high but is down slightly from 1.1 mmt in March. The reason this is considered a high volume is due to the fact that the farm ministry has limited 24/25 wheat exports to 16.2 mmt and 13 mmt have already been shipped this season.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 701 price target.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • New Target: Post-report price action prompted an adjustment to the prior 714 price target, which has been lowered to 705.50 vs July.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 704 price target.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. Support near 540 failed to hold late last week, but prices are attempting a rebound to start April. The next key resistance level is the 200-day moving average, which now serves as a major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially signaling a trend reversal and renewed upside.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The recommendation remains to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes to the current 677 price target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Recs: Four sales recommendations had been made prior to this week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes Post-Report: Post-report price action hasn’t triggered any changes. The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-2 Midday: Tariff Uncertainty Keeps Grains Under Pressure at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 456.5 -5.25
JUL ’25 464.25 -4
DEC ’25 447 -2.5
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1025.5 -8.75
JUL ’25 1041 -8.25
NOV ’25 1033.25 -6
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 537.25 -3.25
JUL ’25 551 -2.75
JUL ’26 621.5 -4
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 566.75 1.5
JUL ’25 577.75 1
JUL ’26 642.5 0.5
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 591.25 -2.75
JUL ’25 607 -3
SEP ’25 620.75 -3.25
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5684 9.5
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 70.63 -0.11
Gold
JUN ’25 3166 20

  • Corn markets continue to decline as traders brace for the announcement of new tariffs expected during this afternoon’s tariff ceremony.

  • Traders remain concerned over the ongoing uncertainty surrounding a trade deal with Mexico, the U.S.’s largest corn buyer. Should a last-minute agreement be reached between the U.S. and Mexico today, it could provide a quick boost to the corn market.

  • A highly active weather pattern is expected to persist through the weekend across the central, eastern, and particularly the southeastern Corn Belt, where heavy rainfall is anticipated. While this could cause significant delays in spring fieldwork and early planting, the increased soil moisture is currently seen as a more critical factor.

  • StoneX updated their 1st crop corn production in Brazil to 25.9 mt, down from last month of 26.53 mt and 2nd crop Safrinha was lowered to 101.62mt, down from 102.13 last month.

  • Ethanol production rebounded to 312.5 million gallons, up from 310 million the previous week, however this is down 1% from the YA.

  • Soybean prices continue to show weakness at midday as traders await the tariff announcement President Trump is expected to make today at 3 p.m. Central Time. Concerns persist, as some countries adopt a hardline stance, while others, such as Israel and Vietnam, are easing tariffs on U.S. goods. As a result, soybean and soybean meal prices continue to decline, while soybean oil sees modest gains.

  • StoneX updated their Brazil production of soybeans to 167.54 mt, down from their previous estimate of 168.34 last month and compared to the USDA of 169.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 135,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines in 24/25.

  • Early soybean planting in the U.S. is expected to be delayed as heavy rains are forecasted through the weekend in Arkansas, Kentucky, and the southern regions of Illinois and Indiana.

  • Wheat prices are trading mixed at midday with an improved weather outlook for the southern Plains, where soil moisture is expected to improve through the weekend. Traders continue to watch carefully as market pressure persists due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming tariff announcement and the forecast for drier weather afterward.

  • The Kremlin has expressed concerns to President Trump that Russia is adhering to the moratorium on energy strikes, while Ukraine is not. In response, President Trump has voiced dissatisfaction with both sides for failing to honor the agreement.

  • Ukraine’s April wheat exports are expected to reach 1 million tons, down from 1.1 million in March according to the deputy minister.

  • The weekly wheat state condition reports from USDA are expected to begin next Monday.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-2 Opening Update: Grain Prices Drop as More Tariffs Arrive Today

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 455.25 -6.5
JUL ’25 462.25 -6
DEC ’25 445.25 -4.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1027.75 -6.5
JUL ’25 1043.25 -6
NOV ’25 1033.5 -5.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 537 -3.5
JUL ’25 550.75 -3
JUL ’26 623 -2.5
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 567.75 2.5
JUL ’25 578.75 2
JUL ’26 642 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 591.25 -2.75
JUL ’25 606.75 -3.25
SEP ’25 620.5 -3.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5644.25 -30.25
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 70.47 -0.27
Gold
JUN ’25 3156.3 10.3

  • Corn is down as the market braces for the expected rollout of additional U.S. tariffs today, which could negatively impact corn exports to both Mexico and the EU.

  • Forecasts show dry conditions in southern/eastern Brazil, while the U.S. Delta and south-central Midwest are expected to be wet. There’s growing concern that corn planting in the southern Midwest and Southeast could be delayed. Both EU and GFS models point to potential flooding rains across parts of AR, MS, TN, KY, southern IL, southern IN, and OH.

  • Domestic Brazil corn basis remains firm due to higher ethanol production. Dalian corn futures moved higher, while EU corn exports are down 35% year over year. The U.S. and Argentina currently offer the lowest-priced export corn.

  • Talk of improved U.S. biofuel subsidy policy boosted bean oil and soybean prices yesterday. However, uncertainty surrounding today’s additional tariff announcements has both markets giving back some of those gains this morning. There are also reports that the U.S. may supply soyoil to India at reduced tariffs.

  • A crop scout estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 169 MMT and Argentina’s at 48 MMT. Meanwhile, Argentine customs workers announced a two-day strike. U.S. tariffs are viewed as bearish for soybean demand from China.

  • Over the past 20 days, funds have averaged 2,500 soyoil contracts traded per day, with 15,000 contracts bought on Monday alone. Dalian futures for soybeans, soymeal, palm oil, and soyoil were all higher. EU oilseed imports are up 10% year over year, soymeal up 14%, and vegetable oil imports are down 28%.

  • EU weather maps forecast rain in Russia. The eastern U.S. Plains may see showers, and heavy rains are possible across U.S. SRW (Soft Red Winter) wheat areas.

  • EU wheat exports are down 35% year over year. U.S. SRW wheat remains the lowest-priced export option among major origins.

  • Despite export trends, Matif futures moved higher on talk that France sold 5–6 cargoes of wheat to Morocco — though no sales to Egypt have been confirmed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.