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4-10 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher After EU and other Countries Pause Their Tariffs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 477 3
JUL ’25 483.25 2.75
DEC ’25 452.75 2

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1018.75 6
JUL ’25 1029.25 5.75
NOV ’25 1002.5 5.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 544 1.75
JUL ’25 558 2.25
JUL ’26 622.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 573 5
JUL ’25 585.25 5
JUL ’26 641.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 610.5 1.75
JUL ’25 624.25 2.75
SEP ’25 635.75 3.25

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5395.75 -95.25

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 60.33 -1.49

Gold

JUN ’25 3134.6 55.2

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after The EU among other countries decided to pause their tariffs on the US following President Trump’s move to pause tariffs on most countries apart from China for whom he raised tariffs to 125%.

  • Yesterday, the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina significantly raised its corn output number to 48.5 mmt from 44.5 mmt previously. Brazil’s corn number has fallen slightly.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 1,500k tons with an average guess of 1,000k tons. This would compare to 1,338k last week and 335k tons a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading higher on the heels of the news that Trump would pause most tariffs other than China, and this morning the EU’s pause on tariffs for the US. China has not been a large buyer of US beans, so the tariff increase on China has not seemed to dull the bean market.

  • Later today, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates show US ending stocks increasing slightly, exports being reduced, but world ending stocks increasing.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 700k tons with an average guess of 400k tons. This would compare to 413k last week and 305k last year.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. While the grains have rebounded well over the past two days, equity markets have slipped this morning despite the tariff news on continued recession fears.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range from sales reductions of 100k tons to sales of 550k tons. This would compare to 435k last week and 355k last year.

  • For today’s WASDE report, US ending stocks for wheat are expected to increase slightly despite an expected decline in exports. World wheat stocks are expected to increase.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-9 End of Day: Grain Markets Rally Following Announcement of 90-Day Tariff Pause

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets closed the day higher, fueled by new tariff headlines and continued strong demand for U.S. corn.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day higher following news of a 90-day delay on tariffs for most countries, excluding China, whose tariff was increased to 125% effective immediately.

  • Wheat: Wheat markets remain the least affected by tariff-related news and closed the midweek trade with gains. However, the stronger U.S. dollar may limit any further upside potential for wheat.

  • Too see the updated 5-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for the U.S., the 7-day ECWMF precipitation forecast for South America, as well as USDA winter wheat ratings, scroll down the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, aim for 477 vs May as your catch-up target.

    • No New Targets: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Old crop contracts continue to lead, and we’re content to remain patient for another day.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market rallied into the session’s close, finishing with moderate gains driven by demand and the latest tariff news.

  • During the session, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, except China. China tariffs were increased to 125% on imports of Chinese goods to counter the increased tariffs China installed last night. The announced pause for 90 days in tariffs sent markets sharply higher across most markets. Corn futures traded off the lows for the session.

  • USDA will release weekly exports sales on Thursday morning for corn. For the week ending April 3, new corn sales are expected to range from 700,000 MT –1.3 MMT for the current marketing year. Last week’s sales totaled 1.173 MMT as export demand remains strong.

  • The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday. Expectations for the report could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports. Current analyst expectations are for corn carryout to be reduced to 1.510 mb, down 30 mb from the March report.

  • Brazil Agriculture agency, CONAB, will release the next round of production estimates early on Thursday morning. The corn market will be looking for an adjustment in the Brazil corn crop, especially on the key second crop corn.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 1107 remains the target to trigger a fourth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following breaking news that President Trump would suspend tariffs on most countries for 90 days, while increasing Chinese tariffs to 125% effective immediately. Both soybean meal and oil also rallied in response to the news.

  • China has purchased only a minimal amount of soybeans so far this year, making the tariff news bullish overall, but particularly supportive for soybean oil. With tariffs on Chinese cooking oil now so high, imports are likely to slow, boosting domestic demand.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates show U.S. ending stocks increasing slightly by 2 mb to 382 mb and exports being reduced by 8 mb. World ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 121.9 mmt.

  • The Bloomberg survey for Brazilian soybean production has estimated the figure just slightly below CONAB’s last guess at 167.8 mmt compared to CONAB’s 167.37. The range is between 167 and 169 mmt.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Markets rallied into the close after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, excluding China. While wheat finished the day in positive territory, the gains were modest, as wheat seems to have been least affected by the tariff news. However, today’s lower close for Matif wheat futures, combined with the stronger U.S. dollar, may have limited the upside potential for the U.S. wheat market.

  • Tomorrow, traders will receive the USDA’s monthly supply and demand data. No major changes are expected for the wheat market though. U.S. 24/25 wheat carryout is expected to increase slightly, from 819 mb last month to 822 mb on the average pre-report estimate. World ending stocks are anticipated to be neutral as well – the average guess is 260.8 mmt versus 260.1 mmt in March.

  • According to IKAR, Russian 2025 grain production is estimated at 129.5 mmt, which is up from last year’s 125.9 mmt. Of the 2025 total, however, wheat is expected to account for 82.5 mmt, which would be slightly above the level from a year ago.

  • The European Commission has stated that since the season began on July 1, EU soft wheat exports have reached 16.4 mmt as of April 6. This represents a 34% decline from the 25 mmt shipped during the same period last year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-9 Midday: Grains Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 467.5 -1.5
JUL ’25 473.75 -1
DEC ’25 448 2.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 992.75 0
JUL ’25 1004.75 0.75
NOV ’25 982.5 4.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 541.25 1.25
JUL ’25 554.5 0.5
JUL ’26 622.25 1
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 567.5 6
JUL ’25 579.5 4.5
JUL ’26 640.75 3.75
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 607.5 6.5
JUL ’25 621.25 6.75
SEP ’25 631.75 6.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5033.5 13.25
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 56.3 -2.8
Gold
JUN ’25 3099.3 109.1

  • Driven by the announcement of retaliatory tariffs from China this morning, corn trade remains mixed by midday.

  • Corn exports remain strong, even in the absence of purchases from China. The steady export pace suggests that the USDA may raise its export forecast once again.

  • Dr. Cordonnier kept his Brazil and Argentina corn estimates unchanged, noting that the southern half of Brazil’s safrinha crop will begin pollinating in late April to early May, with rainfall being critical during this period.

  • Ethanol production dropped to a 10-week low of 300 million gallons, down from 312 million the previous week and 3% lower than the YA. A total of 102 million bushels were used in the production process.

  • Soybean futures are trading mixed at midday, holding fairly steady after China’s tariff announcement. China is imposing an 84% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods. While soybean meal prices are posting gains, soybean oil is experiencing losses.

  • The U.S.-China trade war presents significant challenges to the soybean market, as the U.S. is the second-largest soybean exporter and China is the world’s leading soybean importer.

  • Strong Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans has pushed Brazil’s soybean premiums higher, making U.S. soybeans more competitive in the market. Additionally, the U.S. dollar is falling this morning and may be resuming its downward trend.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 198,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to an unknown destination for 24/25.

  • Wheat markets trade mixed at midday, influenced by a weakening U.S. dollar and growing weather concerns for the U.S. wheat crop, including cool temperatures, flooding, and dryness.

  • Wheat conditions in the U.S. are gradually deteriorating, with the area affected by drought continuing to expand.

  • Wheat remains largely unaffected by the tariff conflict with China, as China has made no wheat purchases this year, while Canada and Mexico continue to be exempt from tariffs.

  • U.S. wheat remains competitive in global markets, with soft red wheat priced lower than French wheat and hard winter wheat priced below Russian wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-9 Opening Update: Grains Mostly Lower as China Retaliates with New Tariffs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 467.25 -1.75
JUL ’25 473.75 -1
DEC ’25 444.75 -1

Soybeans

MAY ’25 992.75 0
JUL ’25 1002.75 -1.25
NOV ’25 974.5 -3.25

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 539.75 -0.25
JUL ’25 553.75 -0.25
JUL ’26 619.25 -2

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 568 6.5
JUL ’25 580.75 5.75
JUL ’26 637 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 604.25 3.25
JUL ’25 617.5 3
SEP ’25 630.75 5.5

S&P 500

JUN ’25 4959.5 -60.75

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 55.64 -3.46

Gold

JUN ’25 3076.5 86.3

  • Corn is trading higher this morning with the May contract now pressing up against the 100-day moving average. With no fresh tariff news and optimism that agreements can be reached, grains are moving higher.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its first Crop Progress report of the year. It was shown that 2% of the corn crop is planted which was in line from expectations but down 3% from a year ago at this time.

  • Yesterday, export inspections showed 1,583k tons of corn inspected which compared to 1,647k last week and 1,465k tons the year before. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

  • Soybeans are bull spread again with the front month slightly higher but deferred months lower. Futures were up overnight but fell on the Chinese tariff news. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • The Bloomberg survey for Brazilian soybean production has estimated the figure just slightly below CONAB’s last guess at 167.8 mmt compared to CONAB’s 167.37. The range is between 167 and 169 mmt.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates show US ending stocks increasing slightly, exports being reduced, but world ending stocks increasing.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago slightly lower but KC and Minneapolis higher. Wheat was shaken by the tariff announcement, and equity markets are sharply lower as well.

  • For tomorrow’s WASDE report, US ending stocks for wheat are expected to increase slightly despite an expected decline in exports. World wheat stocks are expected to increase.

  • The Crop Progress showed spring wheat at 3% planted which is on par with a year ago. Winter wheat was rated 48% good to excellent which was in line with trade estimates but was down from 55% in late November. 5% on the crop is headed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-8 End of Day: Bull Spreading Continues in Corn and Soybeans

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: The corn market remained bull-spread on Tuesday, with front-end contracts showing strength while the deferred months stayed under pressure.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed again, with the front three months posting gains while deferred contracts slipped, signaling continued bull spreading.

  • Wheat: Wheat finished in the green across all classes, buoyed by a weaker U.S. Dollar Index, a stronger close in Paris futures, and lower crop ratings compared to last year.

  • Too see the updated 14-day ECMWF precipitation anomalies for South America, as well as the 7-day precipitation outlook for the U.S., scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, aim for 477 vs May as your catch-up target.

    • No New Targets: Still no new recommendations for making an eighth sale. Old crop contracts continue to lead, and we’re content to remain patient for another day.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, aim for 459 vs December as your first catch-up target.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market remained bull-spread in the Tuesday session as front-end contracts saw buying strength as deferred contracts stayed under pressure. The market is caught between robust old crop demand and uncertainty over long-term demand, driven by tariff concerns and projections for a large corn acreage this spring.

  • Volatility continues to dominate trade across all markets. On Monday, the Trump administration announced a new 50% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China’s retaliatory tariff issued last Friday. The new measure is set to take effect at midnight tonight.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market.  Spain purchased 240,000MT (9.45 mb) of U.S. corn for the 2024-25 marketing year. This was the first announced flash sale of corn since March 14.

  • The April WASDE report, due Thursday, could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports. Current analyst expectations are for corn carryout to be reduced to 1.510 mb, down 30 mb from the March report.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 1107 remains the target to trigger a fourth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed again to end the day with the three front months higher but deferred contracts lower in more bull spreading. Equity markets initially rebounded today, which lifted all grains and livestock, but both faded into the end of the day. Soybean meal ended higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • Today, the White House press secretary said that President Trump’s tariffs on China would go into effect just after midnight tonight. With the initial 20% tariffs he placed on China at the start of his term combined with the new 34% tariffs and now additional 50% tariffs as a result of China’s retaliation, this would bring China’s total tariff rate to 104%. There is optimism that an agreement can be made soon with China and all other countries.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 804k tons which compared to 813k the previous week and 492k tons a year ago. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • In Brazil, a key Amazon shipping route has been disrupted by Indigenous protests and deteriorating road conditions. Global grain giants like Cargill and Bunge, which have significant operations in the region, are experiencing delays at the river port of Miritituba as a result.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with green on the screen for each class, supported by a lower US Dollar Index, higher close for Paris futures, and lower crop ratings compared with a year ago. Nationally, US winter wheat was rated 48% good to excellent, compared to 56% at this time last year, and 55% in the final November report.

  • In addition to winter wheat ratings, the USDA also reported that 3% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of April 6. This is steady with the five-year average and also in line with a year ago.

  • Russia is expected to remain the top global wheatexporter through the 2024–25 season, according to Rusagrotrans. The country is projected to hold a 22% share of the global market (excluding flour), with total exports reaching 40.8 MMT.

  • Argus has estimated Ukraine’s 2025–26 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT, unchanged from their November forecast. If realized, this would mark an increase from 22.3 MMT in 2024–25 and the highest output since the 2021–22 season. Projected yields for 2025–26 are 4.51 tons per hectare, above the five-year average of 4.34.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Spring wheat percentage planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-8 Midday: Grains Remain Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 467.75 3.25
JUL ’25 473.5 2.75
DEC ’25 447.75 1.75
Soybeans
MAY ’25 999.5 16.5
JUL ’25 1012 15
NOV ’25 989.5 8.5
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 540.5 4
JUL ’25 554.5 4
JUL ’26 619.25 1
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 559.75 0.5
JUL ’25 573 0.25
JUL ’26 635.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 594.5 0.5
JUL ’25 608.75 0.5
SEP ’25 619.75 0.25
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5215.5 118.25
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 60.24 -0.2
Gold
JUN ’25 3023.8 50.2

  • Corn prices continue to trend higher at midday, supported by countries showing interest in making tariff agreements.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed corn plantings in the top 18 states at 2% complete, down 1% from last year, but in line with the 5-year average.

  • IMEA said that the Mato Grosso region’s corn harvest could reach 47 mmt, which is up slightly from last month’s forecast of 46.9 mmt.

  • Soybeans are building momentum at midday on concerns over a workers strike in Argentina which would affect the countries ports.

  • According to AgRural, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 87% complete compared to 78% during the same period last year.

  • IMEA pegs the Mato Grosso area’s soybean harvest at 50.3 mmt, up from their previous estimate of 49.6 mmt.

  • President Trump has announced he will place another 50% tariff on China if they do not remove their 34% retaliatory tariff.

  • Wheat prices remain higher at midday, getting support from a recovering macro market and weather concerns this weekend.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed HRW conditions at 43% good-to-excellent, down 9% from last year. SRW conditions were seen at 63% good-to-excellent, down 5% from a year ago.

  • Agricultural group, Argus, leaves their Ukraine wheat production forecast unchanged from the November estimate at 23.7 mmt.

  • SovEcon forecasts a sharp decline in Russia’s wheat exports for March. They estimate exports will be 1.9 mmt, down from 4.8 mmt in March of 2024.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-8 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 466.75 2.25
JUL ’25 473.25 2.5
DEC ’25 448 2

Soybeans

MAY ’25 993.25 10.25
JUL ’25 1007.25 10.25
NOV ’25 989 8

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 541.25 4.75
JUL ’25 555.75 5.25
JUL ’26 618.75 0.5

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 562.5 3.25
JUL ’25 576.5 3.75
JUL ’26 635.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 597.5 3.5
JUL ’25 612 3.75
SEP ’25 624.25 4.75

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5177.5 80.25

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 60.55 0.11

Gold

JUN ’25 3026.2 52.6

  • Corn is trading higher this morning with the May contract now pressing up against the 100-day moving average. With no fresh tariff news and optimism that agreements can be reached, grains are moving higher.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its first Crop Progress report of the year. It was shown that 2% of the corn crop is planted which was in line from expectations but down 3% from a year ago at this time.

  • Yesterday, export inspections showed 1,583k tons of corn inspected which compared to 1,647k last week and 1,465k tons the year before. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

  • Soybeans are trading higher with the May contract rebounding from yesterday’s low and nearing the 10-dollar mark once again. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well as traders are hopeful that better trade agreements can be reached.

  • According to AgRurual, the Brazilian soybean harvest is 87% complete as of April 3 which compares to 82% the previous week and 78% at this same time last year. The southern regions have made faster progress.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 804k tons which compared to 813k the previous week and 492k tons a year ago. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after posting solid gains yesterday as well. All grains are trading higher along with a significant rebound in equity markets so far today.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed spring wheat at 3% planted which is on par with a year ago. Winter wheat was rated 48% good to excellent which was in line with trade estimates but was down from 55% in late November. 5% on the crop is headed.

  • Yesterdays inspections report saw 335k tons of wheat inspected for export which compared to 813k the previous week and 492k tons a year ago. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-7 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grains Higher Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Front-end corn contracts started the week with moderate gains, supported by buying strength. Deferred contracts lagged amid expectations for large acreage and demand concerns tied to tariffs.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed with front months higher and deferred contracts lower in bull spreading. Futures spiked early on a false report of a 90-day tariff pause, but gains faded once the headline was debunked.

  • Wheat: Wheat led grain gains today, appearing least affected by tariff concerns. Strength in Matif wheat also supported U.S. prices.

  • Too see the updated two-week U.S. precipitation ranks by climate district, 6-10 day U.S. temperature and precipitation outlooks as well as the 10-day ECMWF precipitation anomalies for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No New Targets: No new targets to note at this time. The corn market is holding up surprisingly well given how other markets have reacted since ‘Liberation Day’. A positive sign for higher prices ahead? Continue to sit tight for now.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to active options targets, and no new sales targets have been posted at this time. Given how well the corn market is holding up, we’re content to continue sitting tight — with only the options exit targets currently active.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • MO: The Grain Market Insider strategy is built on a foundation of early corn sales.

    • Target Hit: The move to 456 vs December ’26 triggered the current sales recommendation.

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The front end of the corn markets saw buying strength to start the week as old crop contract finished with moderate gains. The expectation of a large acre forecast, and possible demand concerns due to tariffs, limited the deferred contracts on the session.

  • USDA announced corn export inspections during the morning. For the week ending April 3, US exporters shipped 62.3 mb of corn. Total corn export shipments for the 2024-25 marketing year are at 1.401 bb, up 30% over last year.

  • Heavy rainfall in the southern corn belt over the weekend brings concerns of possible delayed planting and a possible shifting of acres. Some analysts feel that producers could move away from some early planted soybeans and shift to additional corn acres.

  • The April WASDE report, due Thursday, could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports.

  • Recent rainfall in Brazil will likely support the development of the second corn crop. In addition, Brazil farmers were strong sellers as the tariff news supported Brazil cash prices on the prospects of improved global demand for Brazil grains.

Corn Finds Support Ahead of Growing Season
After surging to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures experienced a sharp pullback, spending much of March testing key technical support levels. As spring planting approaches in earnest, futures have stabilized around the 450 level — a zone that’s likely to continue acting as near-term support into the early part of the growing season. If this area fails to hold, stronger support is expected near the 200-day moving average, currently around 430. On the upside, the first resistance comes at the 100-day moving average, followed by the March highs and the 50-day moving average near the 470 level.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,850 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net long 56,757 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: No updates to the active option target or the single sales target at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 would trigger the third.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the three front months higher but deferred contracts lower in bull spreading action. Futures were volatile today spiking as much as 20 cents higher this morning after a fake headline went out that Trump would be pausing the tariffs on all countries apart from China for 90 days. This news was debunked, and prices came back down shortly after.

  • Soybean meal ended the day higher after May made a new contract low on Friday as South America sees good weather overall. Soybean oil followed crude oil lower which lost over 7 dollars a barrel on Friday amid the decline in equity markets and tariff negotiations.

  • In Brazil, a major Amazon shipping route has been disrupted by Indigenous protesters and poor road conditions. Major global grains traders like Cargill and Bunge have important operations there, and the river port of Miritituba has seen shipping delays as a result.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 13,112 contracts as of April 1, before the tariffs were announced, which left them with a net short position of 29,847 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 38,856 contracts and sellers of bean meal by 16,683 contracts.

Soybeans Break Lower on Tariff News
The newly announced tariffs in early April caused soybean futures to drop sharply, breaking previously held support near the 1000 level that had sustained the market throughout March. Should the decline persist, support is expected to emerge around the December lows at 950. Conversely, if prices rally, initial resistance will be encountered at the 1000 level, followed by a confluence of major moving averages between 1020 and 1030. Of these, the 200-day moving average has proven particularly challenging for the soybean market to break above, restricting gains for nearly the last year and a half.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,112 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 29,847 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led grain gains today, appearing least affected by tariff concerns. Volatility spiked after early reports of a 90-day tariff pause (excluding China) were later denied, trimming market highs. Strength in Matif wheat also supported U.S. prices.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections reached 12.3 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 650 mb, up 15% from last year. Wheat inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace; total 24/25 exports are forecast at 835 mb, up 18% from the previous year.

  • Over the weekend, temperatures in the Plains states dropped below freezing. While minimal damage is expected for the winter wheat crop, this may still have injected some weather premium into the market today.

  • CFTC data shows managed money increased net short positions in Chicago wheat to 112,000 contracts as of April 1, with total shorts across all wheat classes at 186,000 — the highest since December 2023.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 19,453 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 112,040 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to try forming a base in the 550–570 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 225 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 45,675 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 695.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 HRS crop. This marks the fifth sales recommendation to date and brings the average sales price to 646.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations were made prior to last week. With the current recommendation, this marks the fifth sales recommendation for the 2025 crop.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,961 contracts between March 25 – April 1, bringing their total position to a net short 28,680 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-7 Midday: Grains Start the Week Mostly Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 460.75 0.5
JUL ’25 467.5 0.25
DEC ’25 446.25 -0.5
Soybeans
MAY ’25 982.75 5.75
JUL ’25 998 5
NOV ’25 985.5 1.25
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 539.25 10.25
JUL ’25 552.5 9.75
JUL ’26 625 8
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 567.25 9.75
JUL ’25 579.5 9.5
JUL ’26 639 3.25
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 594.25 9.75
JUL ’25 608.75 9
SEP ’25 621.5 9.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5037.75 -72.5
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 60.13 -1.52
Gold
JUN ’25 3009.7 -25.7

  • Corn futures are starting the week unchanged to slightly higher, tracking gains in the wheat market and attempting to build on last week’s strong finish.

  • Corn has been relatively insulated from the market fallout triggered by the Trump administration’s higher-than-expected tariffs. With Mexico — corn’s largest export destination — exempt from the new measures and China largely absent from recent U.S. corn purchases, the immediate impact on corn trade flows appears limited. This has helped the corn market hold up better than soybeans amid broader trade uncertainty.

  • Excessive rainfall leading to flooding along the Ohio River Valley has delayed field work over the last week. The outlook for the next ten days looks promising however with warmer and drier than normal conditions forecast for much of the southern Corn Belt.

  • Soybean futures are higher to start the week, clawing back some of last week’s sharp losses despite lingering concerns over tariffs.

  • On Friday, China announced it would match the U.S. tariff of 34%, effectively raising the total tariff on U.S. soybeans to 49%. While the impact on old-crop soybeans is expected to be minimal — given that export sales are already at 93% of the USDA’s current estimate — the new-crop export program is likely to take a hit.

  • Palm oil prices dropped to a 10-week low on Monday as the market was weighed down by a sharp decline in crude oil prices. The weakness in related vegetable oils added to the pressure — China’s Dalian exchange saw bean oil futures fall nearly 4%, while Dalian palm oil dropped closer to 6%. The selloff reflects broader macroeconomic concerns and waning demand signals across the global veg oil complex.

  • Wheat futures are higher to start the week as weather-related uncertainty injects fresh volatility into the market. Concerns over excessive moisture in some regions and deepening drought in others are keeping traders on edge.

  • Massive weekend flooding likely caused significant damage to soft red winter (SRW) wheat across the Delta and southern Midwest, as widespread heavy rains stretched from Texas through Arkansas and into the Ohio Valley. The full extent of the impact will become clearer as fields begin to dry and assessments can be made in the coming days.

  • The forecast through the end of the month calls for warmer and drier conditions across much of the Southern Plains, which is likely to exacerbate the ongoing drought in hard red winter (HRW) wheat regions. With soil moisture already limited in key areas like western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, crop stress is expected to increase.

  • Wheat appears to be the least impacted grain market amid the ongoing tariff tensions. With Mexico and Canada exempt from the latest round of U.S. tariffs — and China having made no U.S. wheat purchases this year — the export outlook remains relatively stable. Additionally, the recent sharp decline in the U.S. dollar has provided key support, making U.S. wheat more competitive on the global market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-7 Opening Update: Corn Lower, Soybeans and Wheat Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 459 -1.25
JUL ’25 466.25 -1
DEC ’25 444.25 -2.5

Soybeans

MAY ’25 979.25 2.25
JUL ’25 994 1
NOV ’25 983.5 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 528 -1
JUL ’25 541.5 -1.25
JUL ’26 621 4

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 558.25 0.75
JUL ’25 570.25 0.25
JUL ’26 635.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 584.75 0.25
JUL ’25 599.5 -0.25
SEP ’25 612 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5021 -89.25

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 60.33 -1.32

Gold

JUN ’25 3060.1 24.7

  • Corn is slightly lower to start the week as the equity markets continue to slide, but May corn has managed to stay above its 200-day moving average which is important support. The trade war has created an uncertain environment for commodities.

  • This Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and analysts are expecting a decline in corn ending stocks as a result of higher export demand. Argentinian and Brazilian corn production are expected to be lowered as well.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as net sellers of corn by 17,850 contracts which left them with a net long position of 56,757 contracts.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with the two front months slightly higher but all deferred months trading lower. Markets are still reeling from China’s tariff retaliation of 34% on all US imports and soybeans have been the hardest of the grains hit. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • In Brazil, soybean exports rose by 17% year over year in March, and harvest in the country is now 85.83% complete . This compares to 79.36% complete at this time last season.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 13,112 contracts as of April 1, before the tariffs were announced, which left them with a net short position of 29,847 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 38,856 contracts and sellers of bean meal by 16,683 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher to start the day, but May Chicago wheat is only 12 cents away from its contract low. Futures have been mostly rangebound over the past week but have been volatile with big losses in the equity markets.

  • The USDA ag attaché in India sees the 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt which would be a third year of record production. Planted acreage is expected to be higher and growing conditions expected to be optimal.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of wheat by 19,453 contracts which left them short 112,040 contracts. They sold 225 contracts of KC wheat which left them with a net short position of 45,675 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.