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4-21 End of Day: Risk-off Trade Weighs on Grains Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Heavy selling in the equity markets limited upside for corn Monday; this came despite strong export inspections and a sharply lower U.S. Dollar.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower on Monday, surrendering overnight gains as broad-based weakness across outside markets weighed on the entire grain complex.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended lower on Monday, pressured by weakness in outside markets and beneficial rainfall across the Southern Plains over the weekend, with additional precipitation forecasted this week.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast and 10-day temperature anomaly forecast as well as the 14-day precipitation forecast for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • No Changes: 546 vs July remains the price target to trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week on a softer note as risk-off sentiment, triggered by heavy selling in the equity markets, limited upside potential. Despite strong demand and a sharp break in the U.S. Dollar Index, corn struggled to find footing throughout the session.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend, trading to its lowest level since April 2022. The weaker dollar has helped offset the impact of potential tariffs, kept U.S. corn competitive in the export market, and encouraged fund money flow into the commodity sector.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections during Monday’s session. For the week ending April 17, U.S. exporters shipped 1.703 MMT (67 mb) of corn. This total was above market analysts’ expectations and remains at a strong pace. Current corn inspections are running 29% over last year and exceed expectations to reach the USDA export target for the current marketing year by approximately 180 mb.

  • Traders are also awaiting Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, with close attention on potential planting delays following recent wet weather across parts of the Corn Belt. However, some regions may surprise to the upside, as planting progress for corn and soybeans had been gaining momentum prior to the rains.

  • Expectations for South American corn production are also trending higher. Recent late-season rainfall has benefited crops in key areas, with Brazil now potentially on track for a corn crop exceeding 125 MMT. This could create additional pressure on U.S. export demand in the summer months.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 70,997 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net long 124,573 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • New Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended lower Monday, giving back overnight gains as widespread bearishness across outside markets pressured the entire grain complex. Equities, the U.S. Dollar, crude oil, and bond markets all traded lower amid tariff uncertainties and reports of tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures also closed weaker.

  • In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.

  • Today’s export inspections report was once again middle of the road for soybeans where corn and wheat were above expectations. Soybean inspections totaled 20.2 million bushels for the week ending April 17. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.568 bb, up 11% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds turning bullish on soybeans as of April 15, buying back 76,616 contracts to flip to a new net long position of 26,169 contracts. Funds were also active in the products, purchasing 10,834 contracts of soybean oil and 28,030 contracts of soybean meal.crude oil this week of around 3 dollars a barrel.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 76,616 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net long 26,169 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago wheat futures led the complex lower on Monday, despite the U.S. Dollar falling to a new near-term low and a positive close in Paris milling wheat futures. Pressure on U.S. wheat was likely tied to beneficial rainfall across the Southern Plains over the weekend, with more precipitation in the forecast. Additional spillover weakness from the equity markets may have weighed on sentiment, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 1,200 points at midday.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 18.7 mb, which brings total 24/25 inspections to 691 mb, up 14% from last year. This is below the USDA’s estimated pace – they are estimating exports at 820 mb, which would be up 16% from the year prior.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $250-$252/mt, which was steady with the week before. Additionally, SovEcon said that Russia exported 450,000 mt of wheat last week versus 470,000 mt the prior week. SovEcon is estimating Russian wheat exports in April will total 2 mmt, which is far below the 5 mmt from April last year.

  • Chinese customs data indicates that for the month of March, their nation’s wheat and wheat flour imports totaled 190,000 mt – this is down 89.4% year over year for that month. Additionally, year to date imports declined 93% vs last year to just 300,000 mt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,693 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 96,439 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,462 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 47,372 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,689 contracts between April 8 – April 15, bringing their total position to a net short 21,155 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

7-day Precipitation Forecast from ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-21 Midday: Grains Mixed Amid Weather Developments, Economic Concerns, and Technical Resistance

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 483.5 1.25
JUL ’25 492 1.75
DEC ’25 465.75 -0.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1031 -5.5
JUL ’25 1043 -4.75
NOV ’25 1026.75 -5.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 542.5 -6.25
JUL ’25 556.25 -6
JUL ’26 631.5 2.5
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 553.25 -4.25
JUL ’25 566.5 -3.5
JUL ’26 637.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 601 -5.25
JUL ’25 615.5 -3.75
SEP ’25 630.25 -3
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5186 -126.75
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 62.26 -1.75
Gold
JUN ’25 3429.1 100.7

  • Corn futures are holding steady at midday as the market weighs the supportive impact of a weakening U.S. Dollar against concerns over trade instability with key U.S. partners.

  • Significant rainfall is forecast across Corn Belt regions west of the Mississippi River over the next seven days, while Eastern Corn Belt areas are expected to receive minimal precipitation. A warming trend is also expected, helping to prepare fields for planting.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped sharply to start the week, falling to its lowest level in three years. Meanwhile, gold futures continue to surge, reaching new all-time highs above $3,400 per ounce.

  • Soybean futures are trading lower at midday Monday, pressured by U.S. economic concerns, a declining equities market, and persistent technical resistance within the soybean complex.

  • July soybean futures spent much of last week consolidating near the 200-day moving average, a historically significant resistance level for front-month soybeans over the past two years. Unless decisively broken, this level is expected to continue capping gains.

  • Ahead of Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, traders anticipate soybean planting progress to range between 10% and 12%, compared to the historical average pace of 7%.

  • Wheat futures are slightly lower across all three classes to start the week, despite continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar.

  • Beneficial rainfall fell across much of the Plains over the weekend, with additional moisture expected in the coming days. This should support improvements in crop condition ratings in upcoming weekly progress reports.

  • Despite concerns over winter dryness, Russian wheat conditions are reported to be 90% good to satisfactory. Consultancy SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production estimate by 1.1 million metric tons to 79.7 million metric tons.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-21 Opening Update: Grains All Trading Higher to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 485.75 3.5
JUL ’25 493.75 3.5
DEC ’25 467.25 1.25

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1040.25 3.75
JUL ’25 1050.75 3
NOV ’25 1035 2.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 550.5 1.75
JUL ’25 564 1.75
JUL ’26 630.75 1.75

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 558.75 1.25
JUL ’25 572.25 2.25
JUL ’26 637.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 606.25 0
JUL ’25 621 1.75
SEP ’25 634.25 1

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5256.75 -56

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 62.45 -1.56

Gold

JUN ’25 3401.4 73

  • Corn is trading higher this morning and though it is technically overbought, it appears to be forming a bull flag which could see prices break out above 5 dollars if it plays out. The US dollar is sharply lower which is likely supporting all grains.

  • Strong export demand has helped keep prices supported in corn, and Thursday’s export sales report saw 1,572k tons of corn were exported. Mexico was the top buyer followed by Japan and Spain, China was not a buyer.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn in a big way as of April 15. They bought 70,997 contracts which increased their net long position to 124,573 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as a result of the significantly lower dollar which is at its lowest level since March 2022. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher despite losses in crude oil of $1.50 a barrel.

  • In March, it was seen that Chinese soybean imports from the US jumped by 12% from the same period last year, but this was before the tariffs were implemented. Brazil continues to dominate the market to China.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of April 15. The bought back 76,616 contracts which flipped them to a new net long position of 26,169 contracts. They bought 10,834 contracts of bean oil and 28,030 contracts of meal.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the week despite a rainfall forecast that is expected to be beneficial for HRW wheat areas. There was too much rain in some areas of the southeast Corn Belt over the weekend.

  • SovEcon has increased the Russian wheat output estimates for 2025 to 79.7 mmt which would be 1.1 mmt above the previous years production. Russia has said that 90% of the winter crops are in good or satisfactory condition.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 5,693 contracts which left them net short 96,439 contracts. They bought back 2,462 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 47,372 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-17 End of Day: Heading Into Holiday Weekend: Corn, Soybeans Close Lower; Wheat Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: After a volatile trading session, corn futures ended the day in the red, despite another week of solid export sales.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower heading into the holiday weekend, even with export sales landing at the higher end of trade expectations in today’s report.

  • Wheat: Wheat prices lost strength from earlier in the session, ultimately finishing mixed. Pressure came from weaker export sales and fresh estimates pointing to increased global wheat production this year.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. This is the seventh sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Rally: The December ’25 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 436.50.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a portion of your 2026 corn crop. This is the third sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Rally: The December ’26 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance around its February high of 472.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite another strong week of export sales, corn futures failed to find any traction and finished the trading week with mild losses as the most active July futures consolidated around the 490-price level. July corn futures finished the week 6 ¾ cents lower.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending April 10, U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.562 MMT (61.5 MB). Corn sales commitments now total 2.228 bb in 2024-25 and are up 27% from a year ago. This total is still ahead of the recently adjusted USDA export pace. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.

  • Front-end corn futures could be under pressure with corn movement and pricing. Pricing of May basis contract can bring sellers into the market as producers are looking to wrap up cash sales before getting into field work.

  • Weather will be a key focus over the weekend, with another round of rainfall expected across the Southern Plains. Continued wet conditions could further complicate the region’s already soggy fields, potentially delaying early-season planting progress.

  • Monday’s USDA Planting Progress report will give a view of the pace of planting in some areas, as producers are progressing on both early corn and soybean planting windows.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • New Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended the shortened holiday week lower, retreating by as much as 7 cents. Despite attempts over the past five sessions, soybeans failed to close above the 200-day moving average, highlighting the ongoing resistance at that level. Soybean meal also finished lower, while soybean oil gained ground, following the upward movement in crude oil.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales on the higher end of trade estimates, especially for new crop sales. The USDA reported 20.4 mb of soybean sales for 24/25 and 6.7 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Netherlands, and Germany. Export shipments of 26.5 mb were above the 12.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their crop progress report which shows 24/25 soybeans now 4.9% harvested which compares to 2.6% last week. Production is still estimated at 48.6 mmt. The Brazilian harvest is virtually complete with China as their top buyer.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents while November gained 7 cents to $10.32-1/2. May soybean meal lost $4.00 to $295.60, and May soybean oil gained 0.52 cents to 47.87 cents. Soybean oil benefitted from an increase in crude oil this week of around 3 dollars a barrel.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed on the day after giving back earlier strength. Chicago and Minneapolis contracts posted modest gains, while Kansas City futures edged lower. Rainfall across key growing areas in Kansas may have pressured the Kansas City market, while there may have been some profit taking ahead of the three-day weekend.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 10.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 17.8 mb fell under the 21.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb. Total wheat sales commitments have reached 787 mb, up 14% from last year.

  • SovEcon is reported to have raised their estimate of Russia’s 2025 wheat crop production by 1.1 mmt to 79.7 mmt. On a related bullish note, Russia’s wheat stocks as of April 1 are said to be almost 50% less than they were a year ago.

  • According to the USDA, as of April 15, an estimated 34% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions; this is up 2% from last week. Spring wheat areas in drought held steady at 43%, however. Nonetheless, more moisture is needed for wheat growing regions.

  • FranceAgriMer has issued new estimates of French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season. They lowered their projection of exports outside of the EU by 0.1 mmt to 3.1 mmt. However, they increased the forecast for exports within the EU from 6.28 mmt to 6.42 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-17 Midday: Grain Trades Mixed Ahead of Holiday Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 485.5 1.25
JUL ’25 493 1.25
DEC ’25 467.25 0.5
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1035 -3.75
JUL ’25 1046 -4.25
NOV ’25 1029.5 -4.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 552.5 4.75
JUL ’25 565.5 4.5
JUL ’26 630.5 4.5
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 563.25 5.25
JUL ’25 576.25 4
JUL ’26 642 2
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 608.75 5
JUL ’25 622.25 5.25
SEP ’25 635.75 5.25
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5332.5 26.75
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 63.3 1.47
Gold
JUN ’25 3317.4 -29

  • Corn futures moved higher by midday, driven by weather concerns, as forecasts call for wet conditions across much of the Midwest over the next 10 days to two weeks, potentially causing planting delays.

  • US Corn export sales for the week ended April 10th were 61.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week were 74 mb and well above the 47.6 mb needed weekly to reach 2.550 bb.

  • Total corn commitments are now up 2.228 bb and up 27% over a year ago.

  • Earlier this week, the Argentine government devalued the peso in an effort to encourage producers to sell, a move that is expected to place some pressure on the corn markets.

  • Showers in Brazil’s southern safrinha corn regions have been disappointing so far, though rain chances are forecast into next week. Meanwhile, the drier conditions have allowed Argentina’s corn harvest to reach 28% completion.

  • Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday, heading into the holiday weekend, with additional pressure from escalating tariffs on China and a lack of supportive market fundamentals. Soybeans and soybean meal are posting losses, while soybean oil is experiencing gains.

  • U.S. soy exports for the week ending April 10th were 20.4 mb for 24/25 and another 6.7 mb for 25/26. Shipments were 26.5 mb and above the 12.3 mb needed weekly to reach 1.825 bb.

  • Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday, heading into the holiday weekend, with additional pressure from escalating tariffs on China and a lack of supportive market fundamentals. U.S. soy exports for the week ending April 10th were 20.4 mb for 24/25 and another 6.7 mb for 25/26. Shipments were 26.5 mb and above the 12.3 mb needed weekly to reach 1.825 bb.Total soy commitments are now 1.719 bb and are up 13% from a year ago.

  • Weather-related delays are expected to impact planting across the Southeast Midwest and Eastern Bean Belt, with heavy precipitation forecast from this weekend into next week.

  • Tariff negotiations with China remain ongoing; however, the resilience in soybean prices indicate that market participants are pricing in the potential for a trade resolution.

  • Wheat futures continue to trade higher at midday, supported by additional fund short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, alongside beneficial rains moving across the U.S.

  • U.S. wheat export sales for the week ending April 10th were 2.8 mb for 24/25 and 10.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments of 17.8 mb were below the 21.8 mb needed weekly to reach 820 mb.

  • Total wheat commitments are now 787 mb and are up 14% versus a year ago.

  • SovEcon this morning raised Russian winter wheat production to 52.2 mt, up from their previous forecast of 50.7. Global wheat production was revised slightly higher as well, up 0.4% to 795.77 mt on higher Australian production.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-17 Opening Update: Corn Lower, Soybeans and Wheat Higher Ahead of Holiday Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 482.5 -1.75
JUL ’25 490 -1.75
DEC ’25 465.75 -1

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1039 0.25
JUL ’25 1050.5 0.25
NOV ’25 1033.5 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 549.25 1.5
JUL ’25 562.5 1.5
JUL ’26 626 0

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 563 5
JUL ’25 576.75 4.5
JUL ’26 642 2

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 608 4.25
JUL ’25 620.75 3.75
SEP ’25 634.25 3.75

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5321.5 15.75

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 62.54 0.71

Gold

JUN ’25 3346.4 0

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after trading in a quiet range overnight. Export sales have been supportive with a flash sale of corn to Japan earlier this week. Today’s export sales are expected to be good.

  • Yesterday’s weekly petroleum report sale ethanol stocks falling by 0.8% to 26.814m bbl compared to the average trade guess of 26.803m. Plant production came in at 1.012m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.004m.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,033k tons. This would compare to 1,022k last week and 566k tons a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have backed off from higher prices overnight. Soybeans have been unable to break significantly above the 200-day moving average which seems to be resistance. Soybean meal is trading higher while bean oil is lower.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their crop progress report which shows 24/25 soybeans now 4.9% harvested which compares to 2.6% last week. Production is still estimated at 48.6 mmt.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 900k tons with an average guess of 586k tons. This would compare to 172k last week and 749k a year ago.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher today with KC wheat leading the way. Wheat remains in an upward trend after making new contract lows in March. The market is trading US weather more closely at this point.

  • In Argentina, a bumper wheat harvest could reportedly hit a record if the export tax cuts are extended. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is forecasting the second largest wheat production ever for the country.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between reductions of 100k tons and sales of 500k tons tons with an average guess of 217k tons. This would compare to 215k last week and 129k the previous year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-16 End of Day: Grains Rebound on Weaker Dollar

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended modestly higher in a quiet session, with limited fresh news.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans finished higher, recovering from early session losses of up to 10 cents as a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar supported the broader commodity complex.

  • Wheat: All three U.S. wheat futures classes closed higher, supported by a sharply lower U.S. dollar, and spillover strength from corn and soybeans.

  • To see the updated 14-day U.S. and South American precipitation anomaly outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop today. This is the seventh sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Rally: The December ’25 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 436.50.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a portion of your 2026 corn crop today. This is the third sales recommendation to date.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Rally: The December ’26 contract has rallied roughly 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance around its February high of 472.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Quiet day in the corn market as prices finished with small gains on Wednesday’s session. Fresh news for the corn market was limited, but more weakness in the U.S. dollar helped support the grain markets as traders positioned ahead of the 3-day Easter weekend.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.012 million barrels/day, a 7-month low. While down from the previous week, production remains 3% above year-ago levels. Roughly 101 million bushels of corn were used—below the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual target.

  • The U.S. dollar continued to soften, nearing its lowest level since April 2022. The ongoing weakness in the dollar is broadly supportive for grain and commodity markets.

  • Weather will be closely watched over the weekend as another round of rainfall is slated for the southern Plains. This could compound the issues in that region regarding wetness and limit early-season planting pace.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The current export sales pace is trending well ahead of the current USDA pace. Last week, corn export sales were within expectations, but slightly disappointing at 748,000 MT.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day after recovering from lower prices overnight that were down as much as 10 cents. The U.S. dollar fell sharply today which was likely supportive to commodities across the board, and fears of planting delays have likely been supportive as well. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • Planting concerns persist as some regions remain wet, though early planting has begun in select areas. Historically, soybeans planted by early May tend to yield better—21% of the crop is typically planted by May 1 on average.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are seen at 14.5 mmt for the month of April which compares to a previous estimate of 13.3 mmt. At this point, China is buying virtually all of its soybeans from Brazil and basically none from the U.S.

  • Brazil soybean prices have turned softer as harvest is in the back-end stages. China has been a strong purchaser on Brazil soybeans, up to 60-70 cargoes last week, including supplies for Feb-Mar 2026. Farmer selling has picked up, pressuring basis premiums in Brazil, limiting the strength in U.S. soybean prices.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three U.S. wheat futures classes closed higher, supported by a sharply lower U.S. dollar, spillover strength from corn and soybeans, and a possible technical rebound after recent losses.

  • India’s wheat reserves rose to 11.8 MMT, a three-year high and well above the government’s 7.5 MMT target—a potentially bearish signal for global markets.

  • Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast at 20.5 MMT, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. That’s 2 MMT above last year, with potential for further growth if a recent export tax reduction is extended. If realized, it would be Argentina’s second-largest wheat crop on record.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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4-16 Midday: Grains Remain Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 483.25 2
JUL ’25 491 1.5
DEC ’25 466.5 2.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1037.75 1.75
JUL ’25 1050 3.5
NOV ’25 1032.25 2.5
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 545.25 3.25
JUL ’25 558.75 2.75
JUL ’26 626.5 1.5
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 557 4
JUL ’25 571 2.5
JUL ’26 637.5 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 603.5 2.25
JUL ’25 616.75 1.25
SEP ’25 629.75 1.25
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5371.5 -56.75
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 61.75 1
Gold
JUN ’25 3326.9 86.5

  • Corn futures remain firm at midday, supported by upcoming weather systems which could bring heavy rainfalls, further delaying planting progress.

  • The EU and Spain have increased corn buying from the US while tariffs are paused. EU corn imports are up nearly 2 mmt from the same time last year, while Spain’s corn imports from the US are at 30-year highs.

  • Ukraine’s corn production is estimated to increase 14% from last season to 27.9 mmt according to LSEG. Favorable weather forecasts for April and more corn acres are the reasons for the increase in production this season.

  • Soybean prices are continuing to trade higher at midday after China announced overnight that they are ready to talk with the US about the trade war.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush for the month of March came in at 194.551 mb, down from 196.406 mb in March of 2024, but up from 177.870 mb in February.

  • Brazil is reportedly allowing COFCO, which is a China owned company, to build the world’s largest port in Santos. The port is estimated to increase the total export capacity by 10 mmt to 14.5 mmt.

  • Anec has raised their Brazil soy export estimate for the month of April from 13.3 mmt to 14.5 mmt.

  • Wheat futures are getting a boost at midday on a lower dollar and additional weather threats to the SRW growing areas which have already seen damage.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina could see a record bumper wheat harvest if tax cuts get extended past June. As of now, BAGE is forecasting the second largest wheat output for the country ever.

  • The Chicago Board of Trade has declared force majeure on Ohio River terminals due to flooding which has halted wheat loadouts. Additional rain could add further delays to river terminals in Ohio.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-16 Opening Update: Grains Mostly Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 483.25 2
JUL ’25 491 1.5
DEC ’25 464.75 0.5

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1035.5 -0.5
JUL ’25 1045.5 -1
NOV ’25 1027.25 -2.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 544.5 2.5
JUL ’25 558 2
JUL ’26 624.5 -0.5

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 554.5 1.5
JUL ’25 568.75 0.25
JUL ’26 637.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 603.75 2.5
JUL ’25 618.75 3.25
SEP ’25 631.5 3

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5385.25 -43

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 61.29 0.54

Gold

JUN ’25 3316.2 75.8

  • Corn is trading higher this morning and have come back from lower prices in overnight trade. Good export demand has kept prices supported despite the lack of Chinese buying. Forecasts show wetter weather in the Corn Belt over the weekend.

  • Estimates for the EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.004m b/d compared to 1.021m last week. Stockpiles are estimated lower at 26.803m bbl compared to 27.034m a week ago.

  • In Ukraine, 25/26 corn production could increase significantly from the previous year to 27.9 mmt. This would be up 14% and would be due to increases in harvested area and an increase in baseline yields.

  • Soybeans are trading higher to start the day with support from both soybean meal and oil. Overnight, futures dropped nearly 10 cents to the 50-day moving average before recovering.

  • NOPA soybean crush for March was seen at 194.55 million bushels and was below the average estimate of 197.43 mb. This was third straight month that crush declined and compared to 196.40 mb in March last year.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are seen at 14.5 mmt for the month of April which compares to a previous estimate of 13.3 mmt. At this point, China is buying virtually all of its soybeans from Brazil and basically none from the US.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and have recovered from lower prices overnight. Futures have trended lower over the past few days on wetter forecasts in HRW wheat areas, but US wheat remains one of the cheapest in the world.

  • In Argentina, a bumper wheat harvest could reportedly hit a record if the export tax cuts are extended. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is forecasting the second largest wheat production ever for the country.

  • The US dollar is down sharply and is now at levels not seen since April 2022 which makes US wheat more affordable for importing countries.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-15 End of Day: Grain Futures Mixed: Corn, Soybeans Diverge; Wheat Slides

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Mixed trade continued in the corn market, with old crop futures under selling pressure while deferred contracts found support.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed mixed, with front-month contracts under pressure while new crop futures gained on continued expectations for reduced planted acreage.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker close in Matif wheat futures.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal precipitation map for South America as well as the 8-14-day U.S. precipitation and temperature outlooks scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 495.50.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all seven sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 487 to 512 range vs July to make catch-up sales.

    • Eighth Sales Rec: If July trades to 546 that will trigger the eighth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.75.

    • Continue Catching Up: If you haven’t made all six sales to date, keep taking advantage of up days in the 460 to 480 range vs December to make catch-up sales.

    • No Changes: No new sales targets have posted to trigger a seventh sale for the new crop. Continue to stay patient if you are in line with the six sales recommendations.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: A third sales recommendation is likely tomorrow.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date.

    • Third Sale Rec: The December ’26 contract has rallied 30 cents from its March 31 low of 443.50 and is now encountering resistance at its February high of 472.50. It also has outperformed the December ’25 contract this month, which remains about 15 cents below its February high of 479.75.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Mixed market trade continues in the corn market as old crop corn futures see additional selling pressure, offset by buying strength in the deferred contracts. Bear spreading has narrowed the old crop/new crop spread despite a firm demand tone on the front end.

  • Market momentum remained subdued, with light holiday-week trade and a quiet news cycle contributing to lower activity. The lack of fresh headlines allowed front-month corn to drift lower in search of technical support.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. Portugal stepped into the U.S. corn export market and purchased 110,000 MT of corn for the current marketing year. This was the second consecutive day of an old crop export sale.

  • Brazil’s second corn crop outlook continues to improve, supported by favorable weather and increased precipitation potential. The monsoon season in areas of Brazil has found a second leg, which should boost production and limit some overall concerns for the key second crop corn.

Corn Starts April Strong
After spending much of March hovering just above key support at 450, corn futures have surged higher to start April. A friendly April WASDE report—highlighting stronger demand—has helped fuel the rally, with futures pushing through resistance at the 50-day moving average. The next upside target is the February highs just above 500, while near-term support is expected to be near 470, at the upper end of the previous trading range.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • No Changes: With one sales recommendation made to date, a move to 1093 would trigger the second, and 1114 the third. These targets remain unchanged, and Grain Market Insider remains optimistic that the November contract could still reach them.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the front months lower but new crop soybeans higher in more anticipation of smaller planted acres. May soybean futures are overbought with the stochastics showing a sell crossover, which may be adding pressure. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil ended the day higher.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released the first progress report for soybean plantings. 2% of the crop is reported as planted, which compares to 3% last year and the 5-year average of 2% at this time. The 6-10 forecast shows above-average precipitation throughout most of the country, which could delay planting.

  • Today’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for March at 194.5 million bushels, which was below the average trade guess of 197.6 mb. This compared to 196.4 mb last year, and soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.498 billion pounds compared to estimates of 1.612 bp and 1.851 bp a year ago at this time.

  • Brazil soybean prices have turned softer as harvest is in the back-end stages. China has been a strong purchaser on Brazil soybeans, up to 60-70 cargoes last week, including supplies for Feb-Mar 2026. Farmer selling has picked up, pressuring basis premiums in Brazil, limiting the strength in U.S. soybean prices.

Volatile Start to April for Soybeans
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April following newly announced tariffs, breaking key support near the 1000 level that had held firm through March. However, early April strength has since fueled a rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages—most notably the 200-day, which has capped rallies over the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now targeting the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average should offer support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker close in Matif wheat futures. In addition, the extended weather forecast calling for more rain across the Southern Plains limited any rally attempts.

  • According to yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, winter wheat conditions slipped 1% from last week to 47% good to excellent – this compares to 55% good to excellent at this time last year. Additionally, 8% of the crop is headed, down from 10% last year but in line with the five-year average. Finally, spring wheat is 7% planted, up 1% from a year ago, but steady with the five-year average.

  • Warmer weather is expected across the Southern Plains this week, with temperatures potentially reaching the 90s as far north as central Kansas. However, meaningful rainfall is forecast for Easter weekend, and the outlook remains wet into the end of April—supportive for crop development.

  • France’s agriculture ministry raised its estimate for soft wheat planted area to 4.63 million hectares, up from 4.57 million in February and 10% higher year-over-year. The ministry also reported that overall wheat conditions are improving as the season progresses.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat – Back to Sideways Trend
After months of sideways movement, Chicago wheat broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, this mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures sliding back into the trading range that defined late 2024. Currently, support near 530 continues to hold firm. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average, which now represents a critical test. A decisive weekly close above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal and a return to upside momentum.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. March ended with weakness, bringing prices back near recent lows, but holding trendline support so far in April remains encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as initial resistance, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant barrier. Support near the December lows of 540 should act as stout support on any continued decline.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Hovers Near Support
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained further traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness wiped out those gains, pushing futures back below key technical levels. Currently, the 200-day moving average acts as a barrier, limiting any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains crucial in preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need to make a sustained move above the 200-day, with the next upside target at the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in the past 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a significant role in market movements.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather