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4-25 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 480 2.75
JUL ’25 486.5 2.5
DEC ’25 457.25 0.75

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1056.75 3.75
JUL ’25 1066.5 4.5
NOV ’25 1042.5 7

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 534 4.75
JUL ’25 549 4.5
JUL ’26 619.5 2.5

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 542.75 5
JUL ’25 556 5.25
JUL ’26 621 -1

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 599.25 6.75
JUL ’25 613.75 6
SEP ’25 629 6

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5508.5 -2.75

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 61.96 -0.83

Gold

JUN ’25 3305.5 -43.1

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning ahead of the weekend and have taken back most of the losses earlier in the week. Strong export demand has been supportive over the past two days.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was good for corn with 1,153k tons which compared to 1,572k tons last week. Top buyers were Japan, South Korea, and Mexico.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their crop progress showing that corn is now 29.7% harvested which was barely up from last week’s 28% completion. Production estimates remain unchanged at 49.0 mmt.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning and are above the 200-day moving average after breaking out of their bull flag formation yesterday. Gains in soybean oil have led beans higher while bean meal is lower.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report for soybeans was on the poor side at just 276.9k tons which compared to 736.6k a week ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, the Netherlands, and unknown destinations.

  • Brazil is expected to export more soy to China and other countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia amid the trade war between the US and China. Brazil’s estimated soybean production is nearly 170 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Minneapolis wheat leading the way followed by KC. May Chicago wheat is set to lose around 15 cents on the week at this point and was pressured by poor exports.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw net cancellations for 24/25 and sales of 277k tons for new crop. This was significantly below last week’s sales. Primary destinations were to Japan, Vietnam, and Nigeria.

  • In Ukraine, planting pace for wheat has slowed by 17% as a result of cold weather compared to last year at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-24 End of Day: Grains Finish Strong Despite Early Session Weakness

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: After a choppy start to the week, corn futures managed to end with modest gains, supported by strong export performance.

  • Soybeans: Supported by ongoing optimism over a trade deal with China, soybeans gained throughout the day and ultimately settled higher.

  • Wheat: Despite a weaker start, wheat futures managed to close higher, as the market continued to show signs of being oversold.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Current Rec: The July contract has recently stalled, encountering strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting moving ahead of the five-year average — a trend that, if it continues, could reduce the market’s urgency to bid aggressively for old crop supplies. Additionally, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider closely tracks turned lower on Tuesday, issuing a sell signal. Given the rally from the March low and the seasonal timing, this remains a timely opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Nothing New: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Nothing New: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke a three-session losing strength to finish with moderate gains on Thursday. Strong export performance, buying in the soybean market and the volatility of options expiration helped triggered buying in the corn market on the session.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending April 17, USDA reported new crop sales of 1.152 MMT (45.4 mb). Japan was the largest buyer of US corn on the week. Corn export sales are up 26% over last year and still ahead of the USDA pace to reach the marketing year export target.

  • New crop export sales for the 2025-26 marketing year are starting slowly at 458,377 MT (18.04 mb). These total trails last year’s sale pace by approximately 400,000MT for the same time period. The market will be watching 2025-26 sales as the US is expected to plant a record number of acres, strong South American crops, and the impacts of tariffs on corn exports in the future.

  • May corn options expire on Friday, and prices tend to be more volatile in the expiration window. This is followed by First Notice Day on April 30. These events can trigger volatility in the front end of the corn market.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Nothing New: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Nothing New: Plan A and Plan B targets remain unchanged – ready to pull the trigger on additional sales if November can rally to 1093 & 1114, while simultaneously prepared to advance another sale if 1016.75 support is broken.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, gaining throughout the day and finally managing to close above the 200-day moving average for the first time since February. Support came from continued hopes for a trade negotiation with China along with a breakout higher in soybean oil. Soybean meal finished the day lower.

  • Today’s export inspections report was on the poor side for soybeans. The USDA reported an increase of 10.2 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and a decrease of 3,700 bushels for 25/26. This was on the low end of analyst estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Netherlands, and unknown destinations.

  • Last week’s export shipments of 18.2 million bushels were above the 11.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.825 bb in 24/25. Soybean sales commitments are now up 13% from a year ago. China was not an active buyer this week.

  • U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite a weaker start to the day, wheat managed to eke out a positive close across all three classes. Managed funds are estimated to hold a net short position of around 145,000 contracts heading into the session, and Kansas City futures remain technically oversold. Both factors could set the stage for a short-covering rally—if a catalyst emerges to spark it.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 5.3 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and an increase of 13.7 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 17.6 mb fell under the 21.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 782 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of April 22, an estimated 33% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is down 1% from last week, as recent rains have fallen across much of the central and southern US. During the same timeframe, however, spring wheat acres in drought increased by 6% to 49%.

  • According to their supply minister, Egypt is expected to import 4.5 mmt of wheat during the 25/26 season (which begins in July). This would be below the 4.8 mmt estimated so far this year. Additionally, they stated that current wheat stockpiles are expected to be sufficient through late July.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Nothing New: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Nothing New: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Nothing New: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Nothing New: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-24 Midday: Grain Market Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 476.5 4.5
JUL ’25 483.25 4
DEC ’25 454.75 0.25
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1045 4.75
JUL ’25 1053.75 3.5
NOV ’25 1027.5 0
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 527.5 -0.75
JUL ’25 542.25 -1.25
JUL ’26 613 -2.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 534.75 -3
JUL ’25 546.75 -3.5
JUL ’26 620 -1.25
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 589 -2.5
JUL ’25 604.75 -2.25
SEP ’25 620 -2.25
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5477 75.25
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 62.37 0.1
Gold
JUN ’25 3330.9 36.8

  • Corn prices are mixed at midday on recent rainfall across the corn belt and a drier weather forecast for early May, which will rapidly progress planting.

  • Weekly export sales for corn were in line with expectations at 45 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 2.273 billion bushels, up 26% from last year.

  • The Office of the United States Trade Representative has reported that there are currently more than 30 trade deals being worked on this week.

  • Soybean futures continue to trade higher at midday, as many are hoping for China and the US to start negotiation talks amid 30 other countries doing the same.

  • Weekly soybean export sales totaled 10 mb which were on the low end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments are at 1.729 billion bushels, up 13% from a year ago.

  • Paraguay’s soybean production estimate for 2024/25 was increased by 5% to 10.2 mmt, due to favorable weather conditions.

  • Wheat prices are seeing pressure at midday due to beneficial rainfall which is seen improving soil and crop conditions.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 9 mb, in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 782 mb, which is up 13% from last year.

  • Egypt’s Supply Minister expects the country to import 4.5 mmt of wheat for the 2025/26 season.

  • LSEG raised their 2025/26 wheat production forecast for India by 1% to 114.6 mmt.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-24 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Lower to Start Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 474.75 2.75
JUL ’25 481.5 2.25
DEC ’25 456.25 1.75

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1046.75 6.5
JUL ’25 1056.25 6
NOV ’25 1032 4.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 528.5 0.25
JUL ’25 543.25 -0.25
JUL ’26 613.25 -2

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 536 -1.75
JUL ’25 548.25 -2
JUL ’26 620 -1.25

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 589 -2.5
JUL ’25 605.75 -1.25
SEP ’25 619.25 -3

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5388.25 -13.5

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 62.92 0.65

Gold

JUN ’25 3349 54.9

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning after the May contract closed lower for 4 consecutive days, finding support at the 100-day moving average yesterday and moving higher from there.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,075k. This would compare to 1,572k last week and 1,561k last year. Export demand has been firm despite the lack of China as a buyer.

  • EU corn imports are up 12% year-over-year at 16.8 MMT, while exports have fallen 46%. Meanwhile, one crop scout raised Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 127 MMT, up from 119 MMT last year.

  • Soybeans are trading higher and are above the 200-day moving average that has been resistance. Neither the May or July contracts have managed to close above that level. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is trading higher.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 463k. This would compare to 737k last week and 331k tons the previous year.

  • USDA reports U.S. soybean planting at 8%, ahead of the 5% average. Some analysts think favorable corn weather could pull more acres away from soybeans, potentially trimming final soybean acreage.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with the front month in Chicago wheat slightly higher but the deferred months lower along with KC and Minneapolis wheat. Wheat futures have struggled as planting ramps up for spring wheat, and export demand remains sluggish.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between reductions of 50k tons and sales of 500k tons with an average guess of 263k tons. This would compare to 350k last week and 454k tons a year ago at this time.

  • Rainfall in the U.S. South and East could stress the soft red winter (SRW) wheat crop, while EU models show potential rains for the dry U.S. Plains. Russia’s forecast calls for only scattered light showers.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-23 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Continue Slide While Soybeans Rally on Trade Optimism

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures posted a third straight session of losses Wednesday. A firmer U.S. dollar and ongoing weakness in the wheat market pressured values across the corn complex.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher for a second straight day supported by optimism around potential U.S.–China tariff relief.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures extended losses Tuesday as wetter conditions across the Southern Plains continued to weigh on values.

  • To see the updated U.S. 10-day precipitation forecast and 10-15-day temperature outlook as well as the 10-day global precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Current Rec: The July contract has recently stalled, encountering strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting moving ahead of the five-year average — a trend that, if it continues, could reduce the market’s urgency to bid aggressively for old crop supplies. Additionally, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider closely tracks turned lower on Tuesday, issuing a sell signal. Given the rally from the March low and the seasonal timing, this remains a timely opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling for the third consecutive day as the July contract has traded nearly 20 cents of the most recent high. A strong U.S. dollar and weakness in the wheat market kept a lid on corn prices for the session.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index has bounced from recent lows this week, trending higher as market fears surrounding tariffs and trade policy begin to ease. The stronger greenback continues to cap upside potential in corn by dampening export competitiveness.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.033 million barrels per day, up 297.5 million barrels from the previous week and 8% above year-ago levels. Ethanol use accounted for 103.5 million bushels of corn last week — just shy of the pace needed to meet USDA annual projections.

  • Traders are eyeing Thursday’s weekly export sales report, with expectations for corn sales between 800,000 and 1.3 MMT. Last week’s total came in at 1.561 MMT, highlighting continued strong demand for U.S. corn.

  • With First Notice Day for May corn approaching on April 30, producers are under pressure to price basis contracts. Meanwhile, traders holding long positions must exit to avoid delivery — often leading to additional downside pressure in the market.arket.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day amid further discussions that President Trump might lower tariffs on certain goods from China. Futures were bull spread with the front months posting the majority of gains and November just 1 cent higher. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil was higher despite a selloff in crude.

  • U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

  • Market sentiment was lifted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks to investors suggesting a trade deal with China could materialize “sooner than later.” China remains heavily reliant on Brazilian soybean imports for now.

  • Estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 500k and 700k metric tons. While China has not been a very active buyer of U.S. soybeans, their demand for Brazilian beans has been supportive to prices globally.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower again, continuing to be influenced by the wetter weather in the southern plains. Rainfall totals between 1.5–3 inches are expected, easing drought stress and improving prospects for the winter wheat crop. A stronger U.S. Dollar added further downside pressure.

  • Geopolitical uncertainty also resurfaced after reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected a U.S. proposal to recognize Russian control of Crimea in a ceasefire deal. The news renewed concerns over a prolonged conflict, which could affect grain flows out of the Black Sea region.

  • Warm and wet conditions over the past couple of weeks in Ukraine have helped to relieve drought and replenish soil moisture, however the risks still remain. Some of their main wheat growing areas still have moisture deficits and above normal temperatures are expected to persist through the end of this week.

  • Meanwhile, dry conditions in Argentina have supported soybean and corn harvest progress. However, the country’s winter wheat planting season begins in May, and additional rainfall will be necessary to ensure healthy crop establishment.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Nothing New: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Nothing New: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Nothing New: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Nothing New: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Nothing New: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Nothing New: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

10-day total precipitation forecast

10-day Global total precipitation forecast

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4-23 Midday: Corn and Wheat Lower at Midday; Soybeans Gain Ground

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 474.5 -1.25
JUL ’25 482.25 -1
DEC ’25 456.5 -1.5
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1044.75 9.75
JUL ’25 1055.25 9.25
NOV ’25 1032.5 6
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 533 -2.5
JUL ’25 548 -2.25
JUL ’26 618.5 -1
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 544 -2
JUL ’25 556.5 -1.75
JUL ’26 627.75 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 594.75 -0.75
JUL ’25 609.75 -0.5
SEP ’25 624.25 -0.75
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5453.25 138.5
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 61.89 -1.78
Gold
JUN ’25 3288 -131.4

  • Corn futures remain under pressure at midday, weighed down by the potential extended U.S. planting window due to ongoing weather conditions, as well as improving crop outlooks in South America.

  • Beneficial rainfall across key areas of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt prompted Dr. Cordonnier to raise his Brazilian production estimate by 3 MMT to 125 million — still slightly below the USDA’s 126 MMT projection. He also increased his Argentine corn forecast by 1 MMT to 49 million, just under the USDA’s 50 MMT estimate.

  • U.S. corn remains the cheapest on the global market, but strong export competition is expected to ramp up once Brazil’s safrinha harvest begins in June and July.

  • Ethanol production rebounded to 304 million gallons, up from 297.5 million the previous week, marking an 8% increase year-over-year. The production process utilized 103.5 million bushels of corn, averaging 14.8 million bushels per day.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, supported by reports of “friendly” trade talks and tariff negotiations between President Trump and China. Strength is also seen across the soy complex, with soybean meal and soybean oil both posting gains.

  • China reportedly bought up to 8 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday and is set to auction of 624,000 tons of beans from state reserves.

  • Soybeans are getting a slight lift as producers increasingly discuss the likelihood of shifting even more acreage to corn this season, citing ongoing weather and pricing concerns. The current forecast continues to favor corn planting, potentially trimming soybean acreage further.

  • The USDA reported that 8% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of Sunday, up 2 percentage points from the previous week and ahead of the five-year average of 5%. In the Midwest, Missouri leads with 15% of its crop planted, while Iowa follows at 11%.

  • Wheat futures are lower at midday across all three classes, pressured by forecasts calling for increased rain chances in the Southern Plains, which could benefit hard red winter wheat conditions.

  • Wheat is receiving some support as drought conditions persist in the Black Sea region, with China now also experiencing drought in its winter wheat areas, which could further tighten global supply.

  • As drought conditions in China worsen, there is growing speculation that wheat purchases could be included in the trade deal with the U.S. if China’s domestic wheat conditions do not improve.

  • Ukraine and Russian wheat production remain critical to global supplies this year. While crop conditions are holding steady, soil moisture deficits persist, and additional rainfall will be crucial to avoid potential production declines.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-23 Opening Update: Corn & Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 474 -1.75
JUL ’25 481.5 -1.75
DEC ’25 456.75 -1.25

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1040.5 5.5
JUL ’25 1052 6
NOV ’25 1031 4.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 534.75 -0.75
JUL ’25 549.25 -1
JUL ’26 618.25 -1.25

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 544 -2
JUL ’25 555.5 -2.75
JUL ’26 627.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 596 0.5
JUL ’25 610.25 0
SEP ’25 626 1

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5448.75 134

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 64.19 0.52

Gold

JUN ’25 3346.9 -72.5

  • Dalian corn futures climbed on reports of drier weather in Northeast China, while rains across the Southern and Eastern U.S. could slow planting progress.

  • USDA reports 12% of U.S. corn is planted, slightly ahead of the 10% average. Favorable spring weather could lead to a similar acreage increase as last year’s 1.4 million added acres from March to June—potentially pressuring December corn prices.

  • EU corn imports are up 12% year-over-year at 16.8 MMT, while exports have fallen 46%. Meanwhile, one crop scout raised Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 127 MMT, up from 119 MMT last year.

  • Managed funds are holding record short positions in soymeal futures, even as China’s Dalian futures for soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, and palm oil all traded higher overnight.

  • USDA reports U.S. soybean planting at 8%, ahead of the 5% average. Some analysts think favorable corn weather could pull more acres away from soybeans, potentially trimming final soybean acreage.

  • Support for July soybeans is coming from two angles: optimism that Trump’s final China tariffs may be softer than the previously floated 145%, and ongoing Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans.

  • Rainfall in the U.S. South and East could stress the soft red winter (SRW) wheat crop, while EU models show potential rains for the dry U.S. Plains. Russia’s forecast calls for only scattered light showers.

  • EU wheat exports are down 34% from last year, and Russia’s wheat exports may land closer to 37 MMT—well below the USDA’s 44 MMT estimate and last year’s 55.5 MMT.

  • USDA’s early 2024/25 wheat ending stocks show mixed changes: higher hard red winter (HRW) at 382M bu (vs. 274M ly), flat-to-lower SRW, white, and durum. Combined, total stocks are projected at 846M bu vs. 696M last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-22 End of Day: Corn Pressured by Rapid Planting Pace; Soybeans Edge Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday, as faster-than-expected planting progress sparked selling across both old and new crop contracts.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, defying losses in corn and wheat, gains in soybeans came even as both soybean meal and oil futures ended the day lower.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended modestly lower across all three classes Tuesday, pressured a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index and a general lack of fresh supportive news.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast and 8–14-day temperature outlook as well as the 30-day percent of normal precipitation for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 corn crop today.  This should be the eighth sale for your 2024 corn crop.

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 546 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.25.

    • Today’s Rec: Over the last four trading sessions, the July contract has stalled — facing strong selling pressure in the 494–496 range. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn planting beginning to move ahead of the five-year average. If that trend continues, the market may ease back on its need to bid aggressively for old crop supplies.  In addition, a key Plan B technical indicator that Grain Market Insider monitors closely turned lower today, giving a sell signal. With the July contract still up roughly 37 cents from its March low, today is viewed as an opportunity to make an eighth sale of the 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Exit targets for December options remain unchanged, and no new sales targets posted today.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • No Changes: Following the recent recommendation to make a third sale, no new sales targets posted today.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday, as faster-than-expected planting progress sparked selling across both old and new crop contracts. July corn futures closed at their lowest level since April 10, with technical charts now signaling further weakness.

  • This week’s USDA Crop Progress report showed 12% of the corn crop planted, up 8% from the previous week and ahead of market expectations. The five-year average for this time is 10%. The strong pace eased earlier concerns about potential planting delays due to wet weather.

  • Expectations for South American corn production are also trending higher. Recent late-season rainfall has benefited crops in key areas, with Brazil now potentially on track for a corn crop exceeding 125 MMT. In addition, Argentina weather is drying out, allowing for harvest to progress of their corn crop.

  • A firmer U.S. Dollar and a recovery in equity markets contributed to long liquidation in corn futures, triggering money flow out of the market and pushing prices toward key support levels.

  • With First Notice Day for May corn contracts set for April 30, producers will need to price basis contracts or bushels, while market participants must exit long May positions or risk delivery. This window often brings additional selling pressure into the market.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: With three sales recommendations made to date, continue targeting a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Catch-Up Target: If you didn’t make the one sale, aim for 1063 vs November as your catch-up target. This price level aligns with the Grain Market Insider sale recommendation issued back on January 29.

    • Plan B Target: While Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1093 vs November, markets don’t always cooperate. A new downside stop has been posted as a precaution in case the market falls short of that upside target. Key support for the current uptrend sits at 1016.75. A break below that level could signal a trend shift and reduce the odds of reaching the Plan A target. Grain Market Insider prefers to avoid selling on down days, but sometimes conditions call for flexibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in a month or two.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, defying losses in corn and wheat. Favorable planting weather has kept pace moving steadily, yet soybeans have remained rangebound, trading within a 15-cent band over the past week. Futures continue to struggle to close above the 200-day moving average, though a bull flag formation is developing. Notably, gains in soybeans came even as both soybean meal and oil futures ended the day lower.

  • Sentiment in the soybean market was buoyed by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told an investor group he expects a trade deal with China to be reached “sooner than later.” Currently, China continues to source most of its soybean needs from Brazil.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that 8% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the average trade guess of 7% and 2% a week ago. Last year at this time, the crop was 7% planted, and the 5-year average pace is 5%.

  • In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest losses in all three futures classes, pressured new contract lows for Matif wheat, a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, rain in the forecast for the Southern Plains, and a general lack of fresh friendly news.

  • According to the USDA’s crop progress report, winter wheat was rated 45% good to excellent as of April 20. This is down 2% from the previous week and 5% from last year; the winter crop is also reported to be 15% headed. As for spring wheat, 17% of the crop is planted, which compared with 14% a year ago and a five-year average of 12% complete. Just 2% of the spring crop has emerged, in line with last year and the average.

  • Weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and near- to below-average temperatures in India over the next couple of weeks, which should aid the country’s wheat harvest. In contrast, dryness in northern China is raising concerns over wheat crop development.

  • Russian wheat exports continue to run behind last year’s pace. SovEcon has estimated Russia’s April wheat exports at 2 mmt, which is below both the 5 mmt shipped last year, as well as a five-year average of 3.5 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: Still targeting 705.50 to trigger the sixth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • No Changes: 704 is still the price target to trigger a second sales recommendation.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Eye Key Breakout Above 200-Day Moving Average
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and prices are building upward again this April. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the May contract continues to chop around in the 550-580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • No Changes: 677 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold trendline support so far in April is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above 200-Day
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike winter wheats, spring wheat’s ability to stay above the 200-day remains encouraging, with this level now expected to act as support on any growing season pullbacks. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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4-22 Midday: Soybeans Remain Higher at Midday; Corn and Wheat Soften

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’25 477.25 -4.5
JUL ’25 484.75 -5.25
DEC ’25 458.5 -6
Soybeans
MAY ’25 1033.75 4.25
JUL ’25 1044.5 3
NOV ’25 1026.25 0.5
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’25 537.25 -1.25
JUL ’25 551.5 -0.75
JUL ’26 620 -3.75
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’25 548.75 -2
JUL ’25 561 -2.75
JUL ’26 631 -2
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’25 599.75 -0.25
JUL ’25 613.25 -0.75
SEP ’25 627.75 -0.75
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5300.75 116
Crude Oil
JUN ’25 63.85 1.44
Gold
JUN ’25 3435.1 9.8

  • Corn futures are trading lower at midday, pressured by yesterday’s Crop Progress report which showed corn planting in the US at 12% complete, which is ahead of last year’s pace and the 5-year average.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were strong, coming in at 1.703 mmt, which compares to 1.661 mmt a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

  • Precipitation is expected to work its way through the Plains and Western corn belt over the next week limiting drought concerns as Spring planting progresses.

  • Soybean prices continue to trade higher at midday, following the rebound in the macro market.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting in the US at 8% complete, up 1% from a year ago and 3% higher than the 5-year average.

  • China could soon start to feel the pressure of starting negotiation talks with the US as it is expected that Vietnam, Japan, and India will have trade deals done.

  • Wheat prices remain lower at midday on faster planting pace and widespread moisture chances over the next week.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed spring wheat plantings at 17% complete, up 10% from last week and 5% from the 5-year average. Winter wheat ratings were seen slipping 2% to 45% good-to-excellent.

  • SovEcon has raised their Russian wheat export estimate for the month of April from 1.90 mmt to 2.0 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-22 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher Following Crop Progress

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’25 480.75 -1
JUL ’25 489 -1
DEC ’25 462 -2.5

Soybeans

MAY ’25 1035 5.5
JUL ’25 1046.75 5.25
NOV ’25 1029.25 3.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’25 537.25 -1.25
JUL ’25 551.25 -1
JUL ’26 622.75 -1

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’25 554.25 3.5
JUL ’25 566.25 2.5
JUL ’26 633 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’25 602.25 2.25
JUL ’25 615.75 1.75
SEP ’25 629.75 1.25

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5225.25 40.5

Crude Oil

JUN ’25 63.21 0.8

Gold

JUN ’25 3468 42.7

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day, but futures are maintaining their apparent bull flag pennant formation which could see a break to the upside. Yesterday’s weakness was due to a general risk-off day in outside markets and a drop in equity markets.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which saw corn plantings ahead of trade estimates. 12% of the crop is now planted which compares to the trade estimate of 10% and 4% a week ago. 2% of the crop is emerged which compares to the 5-year average of 2%.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report was good for corn with 1,703k tons inspected which compares to 1,830k the previous week and 1,661k tons a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

  • Soybeans are trading higher to start the day but again have not been able to significantly break above the 200-day moving average. July futures have taken back all of yesterday’s losses at this point. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that 8% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the average trade guess of 7% and 2% a week ago. Last year at this time, the crop was 7% planted, and the 5-year average pace is 5%.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were decent for soybeans at 551k tons which compared to 555k the previous week and 444k tons at this time a year ago. Top destinations were Egypt, Mexico, and China.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago slightly lower but KC and Minneapolis trading higher. Futures sold off sharply yesterday along with the other grains and equity markets. Winter wheat crop ratings have fallen since last week.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw spring wheat at 17% planted which compared to the trade guess of 13%, 7% a week ago, and the 5-year average of 12%. 2% is emerged which is on par with the average pace. Winter wheat crop conditions fell two points to 45% good to excellent, and 15% of the crop is headed.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were good for wheat at 510k tons which compared to 611k last week and 450k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to Vietnam, Mexico, and the Philippines.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.