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9-4 Opening Update: Grains Lower This Morning Led by Soybeans and Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading slightly lower again this morning but has held relatively firm as soybeans and wheat sell off. December corn is down 3/4 cents to $4.17-1/2 while March is down 1/4 cent to $4.35-3/4.

  • Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.067 million barrels per day, and the average stockpile estimate is 22.442m bbl compared to 22.549m a week ago.

  • Private analyst firm Allendale released an estimate for corn production yesterday of 16.63 billion bushels with a yield of 187.52 bpa. This is much closer to the USDA estimate rather than ProFarmers 182.3 bpa.

Corn Futures Bounce From August Lows: Corn futures showed renewed strength with the front-month roll from September to December, closing last week above the 50-day moving average. The July 4th gap near 413 has been filled, with the next upside target at 430. On the downside, the 50-day average is key support, with a break exposing the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are lower again this morning and are on track for a third consecutively lower close. Prices are at support at the 200-day average. November soybeans are down 5-3/4 cents to $10.25-3/4, October soybean meal is down $0.40 to $277.20, and October bean oil is down 0.24 cents to 51.20 cents.

  • Yesterday, Allendale projected that the national soybean yield would come in near 53.28 bpa with production at 4.27 bb. This would be slightly below the USDA estimate.

  • US soybean crushings were seen at 204.8 million bushels in July which was up 5.9% from the same period last year and above June crushings of 196.9 mb. The increase in crush is creating a large supply of meal which weighs on prices.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day. December Chicago wheat is down 6-3/4 cents at $5.15-1/4 while December KC is down 5-3/4 cents to $5.04-1/2. 

  • SovEcon raised their 25/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7MMT from 43.3MMT noting better crop prospects, but quality issues are a concern and may impact yields.

  • The Crop Progress report saw the spring wheat harvest 72% complete as of Sunday which is up from 53% the previous week and the 5-year average of 69%. 

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-3 End of Day: Midweek Grain Markets See Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Move Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the day lower, pressured by declines in soybeans and wheat, as ongoing economic concerns and tariff talks weighed on the grain markets.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower amid growing concerns over the absence of a Chinese trade deal, as the market moves deeper into the usual export window for Chinese soybean demand.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower on Wednesday, pressured by rising global supply estimates as harvest progresses, raising concerns about whether demand can keep pace with growing supplies.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Exit 1/4 of the December 420 puts within the next two days.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • 1/4 of 420 puts will be exited soon to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. In four prior years with similar price action leading into August, three of the four posted their contract lows in the month of August.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded lower on Wednesday, weighed down by broad market weakness and additional pressure from declines in soybean and wheat futures. Prices tested support but are still in a near-term uptrend. December corn lost 5 cents to 418 and March slipped 4 ¾ cents to 436.

  • Markets in general, commodities and Equity markets were under pressure on Wednesday. Economic concerns, the impact of tariffs, and a weaker than expected labor market report helped cause a risk off mentality across multiple markets during the session.

  • The next USDA WASDE report and crop production estimates are on September 12. The market will start seeing private analyst groups make their predictions for the corn crop on that report. One private analyst group forecasted the September corn yield at 187.52 bu/a. This is down from the USDA projection of 188.8 bu/a from the August report.

  • Demand remains a key factor for corn prices this fall. Recent price gains have narrowed the strong advantage U.S. corn held over South American supplies. Additionally, the USDA has not reported any flash sales of corn exports since August 22.

  • Brazil is growing its ethanol industry and increasing their domestic demand for corn. The growth will shift more bushels away from export demand for the use of Brazilian bushels, allowing stronger opportunities for U.S. corn exports.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • Exit one-quarter of 1040 puts options if November futures close at or below 1022.25.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B target has been added to Exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options if November futures close at or below 1022.25.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day as concerns over lack of a Chinese trade deal weigh on markets. November soybeans lost 9-1/2 cents to $10.31-1/2 and March lost 9-1/4 cents to $10.65-3/4. October soybean meal lost $0.70 to $277.60 and October bean oil lost 0.82 cents to 51.44 cents.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 185,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2025/2026 marketing year. This is encouraging, considering the large volume of soybeans being crushed has resulted in a surplus of meal.

  • Soybean crop ratings fell more than expected from last week, dropping 4 points to 65% good to excellent. 94% of the crop is setting pods and 11% is dropping leaves. The USDA will release the September WASDE report next Friday and will reveal if changes are made to yield expectations.

  • U.S. soybean crushings were seen at 204.8 million bushels in July which was up 5.9% from the same period last year and above June crushings of 196.9 mb. This strong domestic demand should be supportive relative to slow export demand.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in tandem with corn and soybean futures. Chicago led the way down, with the December contract losing 6-1/4 cents to 522. Meanwhile, December Kansas City lost only 1 cent at 510-1/4 and December Minneapolis was down 1-1/4 cents to 573. It was a generally risk-off day amid a lack of fresh news, as the lower trade came despite a weaker U.S. Dollar Index and mostly higher Matif wheat prices.

  • According to yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress report, the spring wheat crop is 72% harvested as of August 31. This is up 19% from last week and up 5% from the same time last year. This is also 1% ahead of the five-year average.

  • German 2025 all wheat production is expected to increase by 15% to 44.73 mmt. Winter wheat production specifically is expected to rise by 26% to 22.45 mmt, accounting for roughly half of their total wheat harvest.

  • Russian wheat export values are said to remain relatively steady around $230-$232 per mt on a FOB basis. However, demand may be lacking – Russian July and August shipments totaled 6.1 mmt, which falls well under the 9.9 mmt exported during that time last year.

  • SovEcon raised their estimate of Russian 25/26 wheat exports by 0.4 mmt to 43.7 mmt. This is said to be due to improved crop prospects and production potential. However, they are reportedly cautious about further increases due to the slow start of exports so far.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports as of August 31 totaled 2.57 mmt; the export season began on July 1. This represents about a 44% decline from the 4.6 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year. The top importer of EU wheat was Saudia Arabia at 380,000 mt, followed by smaller amounts from Morocco and the UK.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:
    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.
  • Plan B:
    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
    • Changes:
      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:
    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
  • Plan B:
    • No active targets.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
    • Changes:
      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 647 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 656 target has been lowered to 647.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.
  • Plan B:
    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
    • Changes:
      • None.
      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today.
  • Plan A: No active targets.
  • Plan B: No active targets.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
    • Changes:
      • None.
      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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9-3 Midday: Grains Under Pressure at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn markets are trading lower at midday amid potential demand concerns, as there have been no morning flash sales reported over the past several trading sessions.

  • Crop conditions declined by 2% this week, with 69% now rated good to excellent—still above last year’s 65% at this time and marking the highest rating for this point in the season since 2016.

  • Frost is forecasted to impact parts of Michigan and Wisconsin this week, while additional precipitation is expected across portions of the Southern Plains.

  • Brazil’s first crop corn planting has reached 6.7%, slightly behind last year’s 7.7% at this time. Meanwhile, drought conditions in the EU are expected to reduce corn production by at least 5%.

  • Soybeans remain softer at midday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing trade concerns. Soybeans and soybean oil trade lower, while soybean meal posts slight gains.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 185,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines in the 25/26 year.

  • An appeals court has ruled that President Trump’s tariffs exceeded his presidential authority, sending the case to the Supreme Court for review in October. As a result, countries still negotiating trade deals—including China—are likely to delay progress as they wait to see whether the Court will strike down the tariffs.

  • Soybean conditions fell 4% last week—more than expected—with 65% now rated good to excellent. This puts the crop on par with last year’s rating at the same time.

  • Dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt led to declining soybean crop ratings in Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, and Michigan. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota were the only states to report improvements in soybean conditions.

  • Wheat trades mixed at midday, pressured by rising global production forecasts and increasing export supplies.

  • Upside potential in the wheat market remains limited, as Russian exports continue to improve alongside rising production forecasts for both Australia and the EU.

  • U.S. HRS harvest is now at 72% complete, compared to 67% at this time last year and conditions remain unchanged at 49% good to excellent, well below last year’s 69% at this time.

  • Kazakhstan has experienced a very strong season and expects to have 8-9 million tons of excess wheat to export.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-3 Opening Update: Grains Trading Quietly Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day with the December contract down 1-1/4 cents to $4.21-3/4 while March is down 1 cent to $4.39-3/4. Yesterday, corn prices remained firm despite sell-offs in the other grain markets.

  • Demand for US corn is pushing record start to the marketing year.  Current corn export sales on the books are the second best in the past 25 years.  Another strong week of sales this week could like make the 2025-26 ,marketing year the strongest start ever, eclipsing the 2021-22 marketing year.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings fall by 2 points from last week to 69% good to excellent. 90% of the crop is in dough stage, 58% is dented, and 15% of the crop is mature.

Corn Futures Bounce From August Lows: Corn futures showed renewed strength with the front-month roll from September to December, closing last week above the 50-day moving average. The July 4th gap near 413 has been filled, with the next upside target at 430. On the downside, the 50-day average is key support, with a break exposing the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are starting the day lower again today with November down 1-1/2 cents to $10.39-1/2 while March is down 1-1/2 cents as well to $10.73-1/2. October meal is down $0.60 to $277.70 and October bean oil is down 0.44 cents to 51.83 cents.

  • US soybean crushings were seen at 204.8 million bushels in July which was up 5.9% from the same period last year and above June crushings of 196.9 mb. The increase in crush is creating a large supply of meal which weighs on prices.

  • Soybean crop ratings fell by more than expected from last week, dropping 4 points to 65% good to excellent. 94% of the crop is setting pods and 11% is dropping leaves.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and Minn lower but KC slightly higher. December Chicago wheat is down 1/4 cent at $5.28 while December KC is up 1-1/4 cents to $5.12-1/2. Yesterday’s export inspections were decent for wheat.

  • SovEcon raised their 25/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7MMT from 43.3MMT noting better crop prospects, but quality issues are a concern and may impact yields.

  • The Crop Progress report saw the spring wheat harvest 72% complete as of Sunday which is up from 53% the previous week and the 5-year average of 69%. 

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-2 End of Day: Corn Strengthens, Soybeans Slide, Wheat Under Global Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures fought off early weakness to close higher Tuesday. Corn’s technical breakout, strong demand, and shrinking supply outlook are fueling short covering, with traders eyeing $4.30 resistance and September’s WASDE for confirmation.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed sharply lower Tuesday, soybeans remain under pressure from meal weakness and China demand fears, but weather risks and fund positioning are adding volatility ahead of USDA’s September update.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all classes. Exports inspections remained strong last week but ample supply globally continues to weigh on prices.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Exit 1/4 of the December 420 puts within the next two days.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • 1/4 of 420 puts will be exited within the next two days to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. In four prior years with similar price action leading into August, three of the four posted their contract lows in the month of August.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fought off early weakness to close higher Tuesday. September gained 5 cents to $4.03, and December added 2 ¾ cents to $4.23 — its third straight higher close and the strongest since July 21.

  • Corn charts have improved technically, and money flow has been positive. A close above $4.20 opens the door for a test of $4.30 and the July 18 high at $4.30 ¼.

  • Funds continue to cover shorts. CFTC data showed managed money trimming nearly 34,000 contracts last week, leaving a net short of 110,686 contracts as strong demand and tightening supply support prices.

  • Exports remain supportive. Weekly inspections totaled 1.407 MMT (55.4 mb), pushing 2023/24 inspections to 2.636 bb — 29% above last year.

  • Weather and disease concerns linger. Cool, dry finishing conditions and disease pressure may limit yields, with traders leaning below USDA’s 188.8 bpa August forecast ahead of the September 12 WASDE.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 33,964 contracts between August 19 – August 26, bringing their total position to a net short 110,686 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • Exit one-quarter of 1040 puts options if November futures close at or below 1022.25.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B target has been added to Exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options if November futures close at or below 1022.25.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower Tuesday, pressured by weaker soybean meal. November fell 13 ½ cents to $10.41 and March dropped 12 cents to $10.75. October meal slid $5.10 to $278.30, while October oil gained 0.56 cents to 52.26. Fears of slowing Chinese demand and a meal glut from strong crush weighed on prices.

  • Dry weather forecasts support the soybean market as areas in the Corn Belt have seen their driest August in over 100 years. The poor finishing weather will likely limit the potential final crop size as harvest approaches. It is likely that yields will be adjusted in this month’s USDA report.

  • The European weather model is showing a more aggressive rainy season for Northern Brazil throughout September. This month is the start of the Brazilian planting season and improving soil moisture levels will likely set producers up to a good start of the season.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 20,815 contracts, leaving them with a net long position of 20,818 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 673 contracts, leaving them long 30,669 contracts and were buyers of meal by 23,528 contracts, reducing their net short position to 61,711 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 20,815 contracts between August 19 – August 26, bringing their total position to a net long 20,818 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all classes. December Chicago fell 6 cents to 528-1/4, Kansas City dropped 8 ½ to 511-1/4, and Minneapolis lost 5 ¾ to 574-1/4. Pressure stemmed from a stronger U.S. dollar, fresh contract lows in Paris milling wheat, falling Russian values, and larger Australian production outlooks.

  • Export pace remains supportive. Weekly inspections of 29.5 mb lifted 2025/26 total inspections to 244 mb, up 15% from last year and ahead of USDA’s projected pace of 875 mb for the season.

  • According to SovEcon, Russian wheat export values fell to $230/mt, which is down $5 from the week prior and $15 from just a few weeks ago. This is said to be due to sluggish demand. Additionally, some are predicting the Russian wheat harvest could reach as high as 86-87 mmt, well above the USDA at 83.5 mmt.

  • ABARE, Australia’s ag bureau, increased their estimate of Australian wheat production by 10% to 33.8 mmt. Although this would be down 1% from last year, it would still be 22% above the ten-year average. Better than expected rains across their wheat growing regions are cited as the reason for the increase.

  • LSEG commodities research has indicated that the next 10 days will be cool across southern Argentina over the next 10 days. Temperatures could be 2-6 degrees Celsius below normal, which could lead to frost in wheat growing regions. This is causing some concern of damage for early emerging wheat.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:
    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.
  • Plan B:
    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
    • Changes:
      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:
    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
  • Plan B:
    • No active targets.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
    • Changes:
      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 16, 545 contracts between August 19 – August 26, bringing their total position to a net short 81,587 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 647 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 656 target has been lowered to 647.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,699 contracts between August 19 – August 26, bringing their total position to a net short 48,681 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.
  • Plan B:
    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
    • Changes:
      • None.
      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today.
  • Plan A: No active targets.
  • Plan B: No active targets.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
    • Changes:
      • None.
      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 824 contracts between August 19 – August 26, bringing their total position to a net short 22,795 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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9-2 Midday: Grains Remain Weaker at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn continues to trend lower at midday after some private groups estimate higher ending stocks for both 2024/25 and 2025/26. December futures are down 1-1/2 to $4.18-3/4.

  • A private crop tour in McLean County, Illinois reported yield findings of 233.9 BPA, which is up from 227.12 last BPA last year.

  • A higher dollar at midday is adding weakness to not only the corn market but the rest of the grain complex as well.

  • Soybeans continue to lead the grain complex lower on lack of optimism regarding a trade deal getting done with China. November soybeans are 15-00 lower to $10.39-1/2.

  • There are rumors circulating that China may stop buying US products through the rest of 2025 as the trade spat is ongoing.

  • July crush will be released this afternoon. Analysts are expecting a record-breaking month at 207.2 mb compared to 197.1 mb crushed in June. Soybean oil stocks are expected at 1.90 billion pounds, which if realized, would be slightly higher than June’s 1.893 billion pounds.

  • All three wheat classes are drifting lower at midday, pressured by global production boosts. December Chicago wheat is trading 9-00 lower to $5.25-1/4.

  • Egypt’s wheat imports have fallen to 4.5 mmt this year, down 21% from the year prior, according to the finance minister.

  • Australia’s wheat output is expected to reach 33.8 mmt, which if realized, would be the fourth-largest wheat crop on record.

  • SoveEcon has raised their Russian wheat export estimate to 43.7 mmt, up from 43.3 mmt in the groups previous estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-2 Opening Update: Soybeans and Wheat Leading Grain Complex Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Technical buying and short covering have supported the corn market into the end of August.  December corn futures finished the month trading higher on Friday’s close.  The first positive month since May.  An improved technical picture should keep buyers active.  Dec corn futures have traded higher 5 out of the 6 years in the month of September.

  • Current dry weather forecasts and disease concern have the market pricing in a small overall crop compared to the USDA August forecast.  With the strong export demand the feeling of the corn supply picture tightening overall is supporting the market.

  • Demand for US corn is pushing record start to the marketing year.  Current corn export sales on the books are the second best in the past 25 years.  Another strong week of sales this week could like make the 2025-26 Marketing year the strongest start ever, eclipsing the 2021-22 marketing year.

Corn Futures Show Signs of Life: With the front-month roll from September to December, corn has shown renewed strength. Prices rallied to close last week above the 50-day moving average, a constructive signal. Early this week, corn filled the post–July 4th gap near 413, with the next upside target seen at the gap near 430. On the downside, the 50-day average serves as initial support, while a break could expose the gap below 400.

  • Lack of a potential trade deal with China from this past week of negotiations is pressuring the market and Chinese buyer look to Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay for soybean supplies in the window they typically buy US soybeans.

  • Dry weather forecast support the soybean market as areas on the corn belt have seen there driest August in over 100 years.  The poor finishing weather will likely limit the potential final crop size as harvest approaches.

  • Despite the lack of Chinese soybean exports sales, purchases of US soybeans by non-China  buyers are off to a strong start.  Reported sales excluding China and Unknown destinations are off to the strongest start since 2018-19 as other countries have sources soybeans from the United States.  Regardless, US still will need Chinese purchases to hit projected export targets for the 2025-26 marketing year.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat is trading lower following the long weekend with December Chicago wheat down 9-1/2 cents to $5.24-3/4 while Dec KC wheat is down 9 cents at $5.10-3/4. Larger Russian production may be pressuring wheat.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of wheat. They bought back 23,528 contracts of Chicago wheat reducing their net short position to 81,587 contracts. They bought back 2,699 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 48,681 contracts.

  • SovEcon raised their 25/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7MMT from 43.3MMT noting better crop prospects, but quality issues are a concern and may impact yields.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-29 End of Day: Corn Leads Grains Higher into Holiday Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: The corn market wrapped up Thursday’s trade with gains, receiving support from strong weekly export sales that continue to show demand.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean prices closed mostly higher but were ultimately mixed, as ongoing concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions kept market sentiment cautious.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat finished the day with gains, finding support by a weaker U.S. dollar and a positive export report.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn markets ended the week on a strong note, pushing to new weekly highs with solid gains across the board. The rally was fueled by a bullish export report and growing sentiment that the USDA’s production and yield estimates for the 2025 season may have already peaked. The front-month September contract surged more than 12 cents on the day, closing above the 50-day moving average resistance, while all deferred contracts posted gains of over 9 cents.

  • While no new flash sales were announced this morning, recent price action suggests that fresh demand may be emerging in the market.

  • Brazil announced the development of 21 active corn-based ethanol projects, which could increase the country’s corn production by 50% by 2027. Of the 21 projects, 12 are currently in various stages of construction, while the remaining 9 are still in the planning phase. If all projects reach operational status, they are expected to require an additional 14 million metric tons (MMT) of corn to produce approximately 8.2 billion liters of ethanol.

  • Weather conditions remain favorable across much of the U.S. as harvest approaches, with extended forecasts continuing to support crop development. Currently, only 5% of U.S. corn acreage is experiencing drought conditions, down from 8% at the same time last year. Overall, the corn crop looks promising; however, reports of tar spot and southern rush emerging in parts of the Midwest are raising some early concerns.

  • LSEG has raised its 2024/25 Brazil corn production estimate to 137.4 million metric tons, a 4% increase from its previous forecast, citing expectations for a larger planted area. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn harvest is nearing completion, with progress reported at approximately 97%.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with September up 8-1/2 cents to $10.36-3/4 while November was up 6-1/2 cents at $10.54-1/2. October soybean meal was up by $0.50 to $283.40 and October soybean oil was down by 0.25 cents to 51.70 cents. Funds were buyers across the grain complex heading into the weekend.

  • Drought conditions have expanded throughout the southern part of the Soybean Belt with a very dry August so far. The drought monitor showed an expansion of the soybean crop in drought to 11% which is up for 3% only two weeks ago.

  • Analysts are estimating that the USDA soybean crush will come in around 207 million bushels for July. If this number is realized, the crush would be up 5.1% from the 197.1 mb processed in June and up 7.2% from July 2024.

  • For the week, November soybeans lost 4 cents while March lost 3-1/4 cents to $10.87. October soybean meal lost $4.90 this week, and October soybean oil lost 3.24 cents. Over the past five trading days, funds are estimated to have sold over 24,000 contracts of soybeans.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes, supported by end-of-month positioning, first notice day for September contracts, and spillover strength from corn. September Chicago rose 7-3/4 cents to 518, Kansas City gained 6 cents to 492-3/4, and MIAX added 4 cents to 559-1/4. Short covering and technical buying ahead of the long weekend also played a role ahead of the three-day weekend. Wheat also was likely a follower of today’s sharply higher corn market.

  • Russia has increased their wheat export tax to 134.4 Rubles per mt through September 9. This is up sharply from the previous tax of 32.1 Rubles per mt.

  • According to the Benos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is off to a good start. Reportedly, 85% of the wheat crop’s soil moisture conditions are adequate to optimal.

  • The European Commission updated its 25/26 grain forecast to 276.9 MMT (down from July’s 278.4 MMT), though soft wheat production was revised higher to 128.1 MMT from 127.3 MMT.

  • Yesterday’s updated USDA drought monitor indicated that as of August 26, winter wheat areas experiencing drought were unchanged from the previous week at 31%. Meanwhile, spring wheat acres in drought declined 1% from last week to 13%.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:
    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.
  • Plan B:
    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
    • Changes:
      • None

 

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:
    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
  • Plan B:
    • No active targets.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
    • Changes:
      • None.

 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 647 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 656 target has been lowered to 647.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.
  • Plan B:
    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
    • Changes:
      • None.
      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today.
  • Plan A: No active targets.
  • Plan B: No active targets.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
    • Changes:
      • None.
      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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8-29 Midday: Grains Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn markets are trading higher at midday, supported by strong export demand and continued favorable weather conditions aiding the crop’s development as the season progresses.

  • U.S. corn exports to the EU for the 2024/25 season have reached a 35-year high, driven by ongoing drought stress impacting the EU crop.

  • U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions remains unchanged at 5%, down from 8% at the same time last year.

  • LSEG has raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop to 137.4 million metric tons, up 4% from the previous forecast, citing increased planted acreage. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn harvest is now just over 97% complete.

  • Soybeans are trading lower at midday, pressured by continued weakness in the soybean oil market and light trading volume ahead of the upcoming Labor Day weekend.

  • Additional pressure on the market comes as China continues to source soybeans from countries other than the U.S., with increased purchases from Argentina and Uruguay.

  • Stats Canada soybean production this season is expected to drop 7.3% compared to last year.

  • U.S. soybeans under drought conditions rose by 2% to 11%, just below last year’s 12%. Persistent dryness in the eastern Corn Belt is drawing trader attention, with forecasts expecting the trend to continue into next week.

  • Wheat is trading mixed at midday but still seeing some support by strong export commitments for the 2025/26 season, which are currently 23% ahead of this time last year.

  • Stats Canada released wheat production estimates at 35.548 million metric tons, just below the pre-report expectation of 35.6 million. Spring wheat production was pegged at 25.992 million tons, up from 25.351 million last year.

  • Winter wheat acreage under drought conditions held steady at 31% last week, though significant rains across the Southern Plains this week are expected to ease those numbers. Meanwhile, HRS wheat under drought declined by 1 point to 13%.

  • Russian export prices have fallen to a one-month low due to harvest pressure, while EU prices are approaching contract lows.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-29 Opening Update: Corn Higher, Soybeans and Wheat Lower Heading Into Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading higher to start the day following yesterday’s first notice day for September contracts. September is currently trading 3-1/2 cents higher at $3.89 while December is up 2 cents at $4.12.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales strong but fall from last week at 2,072k tons. This compared to 2,833k last week and 1,509k a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Colombia, and unknown.

  • The ProFarmer tour brought up disease in the crop multiple times, and farmers who are finding corn rust are reporting heavy cases of it. This could cut effected yields by 20-40%.

Corn Futures Show Signs of Life: With the front-month roll from September to December, corn has shown renewed strength. Prices rallied to close last week above the 50-day moving average, a constructive signal. Early this week, corn filled the post–July 4th gap near 413, with the next upside target seen at the gap near 430. On the downside, the 50-day average serves as initial support, while a break could expose the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning apart from the September contract which is in delivery and is up 3 cents at $10.31-1/4. The November contract is down 5-1/4 cents to $10.42-3/4, October soybean meal is down $1.00 at $281.90 and October soybean oil is down 0.44 cents at 51.51 cents.

  • Analysts are estimating that the USDA soybean crush will come in around 207 million bushels for July. If this number is realized, the crush would be up 5.1% from the 197.1 mb processed in June and up 7.2% from July 2024.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales increase from last week to 1,183k tons from 1,137k last week and 2,472k tons a year ago. Top buyers were unknown, Mexico, and Taiwan.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago unchanged and KC and Minneapolis lower. December Chicago wheat is unchanged at $5.29 while December KC is down 1/2 cent at $5.15-1/4.

  • Yesterday’s export sales saw wheat sales fall to 1,183k tons from 1,137k tons last week. This compared to 498k tons a year ago. Top buyers were Vietnam, Nigeria, and Mexico.

  • The Canadian wheat crop for 25/26 was seen rising to 35.5 mmt from previous estimates of 34.2 mmt according to Bloomberg. Canola production is seen 4.6% higher.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.