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10-21 End of Day: Grains Slip Following Mixed Trade Rhetoric

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures failed to break overhead resistance and closed lower on the day, pressured by strength in the dollar and spillover weakness from gold.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans slid lower following mixed rhetoric about the ongoing trade tensions with China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures slipped as strength in the U.S. dollar and spillover weakness from corn and soybeans weighed on the market.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new crop progress data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday as failing to push through resistance triggered some long liquidation. A firmer U.S. dollar and a drop in gold futures also triggered some selling on the session. December corn lost 3 ½ cents to 419 ¾, and March lost 3 ¼ cents to 433 ¾.

  • Two out of the past three sessions, corn futures reversed at the 425 price area and traded lower off that price point. The 425 price could be triggering some farmer selling. The weak technical closes could open the corn market to some additional selling going into tomorrow’s session.

  • The U.S. dollar has traded higher for the past three sessions, pressuring corn and wheat prices on Tuesday.

  • The corn market stays supported by yield variability. With information limited, yield reports have supported the market regarding the size of the corn crop. The impact of late dry weather and disease pressure is still unknown in the corn market.

  • The talk that the government shutdown could see resolution this week could be either positive or negative to the corn market. The start of flowing government information will shed light on harvest progress and demand for the corn market, which has been missing since the shutdown began.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower in quiet trade amid mixed comments by President Trump regarding a meeting with China’s Xi. November soybeans lost 1 cent to $10.30-3/4, while March lost 1-1/4 cents to $10.62-3/4. December soybean meal gained $1.90 to $286.90 and December soybean oil lost 0.66 cents to 50.65 cents despite small gains in crude.

  • This week there has been a significant amount of talk by the administration of getting a trade deal ironed out with China. Yesterday, President Trump said they would attempt to close a deal by November 1 or risk increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, but today he said that the meeting with President Xi may not happen.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated by Bloomberg polls to be 74% complete with a range between 61-80%. This would compare to last week’s survey guess of 60% and would compare to 81% from the USDA at this time a year ago.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybean inspections at 1,474k tons which compares to 1,017k last week and 2,550k tons a year ago at this time. Export inspections are down 42.2% from a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all three classes, pressured by the lower corn and soybean trade, a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, and a lower close for MATIF wheat futures. December Chi lost 4-1/2 cents to 500-1/4, KC was down 5 cents at 485, and MIAX finished the session 3-3/4 cents lower at 544-3/4.

  • IKAR has once again increased their estimate of Russian wheat production, this time by 0.5 mmt to 88 mmt. The last USDA estimate in September had the crop pegged at 85 mmt.

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine’s winter wheat crop is 72% planted. And despite the lack of data due to the government shutdown, U.S. winter wheat is believed to be being planted at a similar pace. A poll from Reuters suggests that U.S. plantings are 75% complete, while a Bloomberg survey indicates the crop is 76% planted.

  • Over the past week, it was warm and mostly dry across Argentina. Over the next five days, above-normal temperatures are expected in central and northern regions, before cooler temperatures arrive next week. Additionally, above-normal rainfall is expected in the Pampas and northeast region. If the moisture persists, it could cause some concerns for the growth and quality of the wheat crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day temperature courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-21 Midday: Soybeans Pulling Back at Midday, Corn and Wheat Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is weaker at midday, pressured by harvest pace and The American Petroleum Institute saying they do not support year-round E-15 sales. December corn is down 3-00 cents to $4.20-1/4 while March corn is 2-1/2 cents lower to $4.34-1/2.

  • According to a Bloomberg poll, US corn harvest is seen at 59% complete, down from 62% complete through the same week last year but above the 5-year average of 57%.

  • AgRural reported that Brazil’s first corn crop has reached 51% planted, up from 48% planted through the same week last year.

  • Soybeans are pulling back at midday but remain slightly above unchanged. Support is coming from President Trump announcing he feels confident that a trade deal will get done with China next month. November soybeans are up 1-00 cent to $10.32-3/4, while the January contract is up 3/4-00 cent to $10.50-3/4.

  • A Bloomberg poll showed the average estimate for soybean harvest at 74% complete, up from 60% a week earlier but below last year’s pace of 81% complete.

  • According to AgRural, Brazil’s soybean planting has now reached 24% complete, up 10% from last week and 6% higher than the previous year.

  • Wheat prices are softer at midday, pressured by increasing global supply estimates. December Chicago wheat is down 3-1/4 cents to $4.20-00, December KC is 4-00 cents lower to $4.86-00 and December Minneapolis is down 1-00 cent to $5.47-1/2.

  • Winter wheat planting is seen at 76% complete according to a crop survey. This is up from last week’s survey which showed 60% planted and up from last year’s 73% planted through the same week.

  • IKAR has raised their wheat production forecast again for Russia by 0.5 mmt to 88 mmt. This compares to the USDA’s estimate of 85 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-21 Opening Update: Grains Mixed With Soybeans Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

Check out our recently revised Quote Board

  • Corn futures are mixed and trading quietly to start the day with December down 1/4 cent to $4.23 while March is up 1/4 cent to $4.37-1/4. Corn basis has been relatively steady at around 40 cents under December.

  • Estimates according to a Bloomberg poll see the US corn harvest at 59% complete as of October 19 which would compare to last week’s survey average of 45%. This would compare to the USDA last year at 65%.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw corn inspections at 1,318k tons which compared to 1,210k tons last week and 1,001k a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Spain.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since risen to retest overhead structural resistance near 424. Should prices break above, and with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages now acting as technical support, the next point of technical resistance lies near 430.

  • Soybean futures are higher again today with continued hope that the US and China will come to a trade agreement. November soybeans are up 5-3/4 cents to $10.37-1/2 and March is up 5-1/2 cents to $10.69-1/2. December soybean meal is up $1.20 to $286.40 and December soybean oil is up 0.02 cents to 51.34 cents.

  • The US soybean harvest is estimated to be 74% complete with a range between 61-80%. This would compare to last week’s survey guess of 60% and would compare to 81% at this time a year ago.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybean inspections at 1,474k tons which compares to 1,017k last week and 2,550k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations are Mexico, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

Soybeans Retest Overhead Resistance: Soybean futures found strength following dovish rhetoric regarding the current trade situation with China. Prices broke through strong technical resistance found in a band of major moving averages to retest the mid-September high. The next point of resistance can be found near 1062.

  • Wheat is trading lower to start the day but remains 10 cents off recent contract lows. December Chicago wheat is down 2 cents to $5.02-3/4, KC wheat is down 2-1/4 cents to $4.87-3/4, and Minn wheat is down 3/4 cent to $5.47-3/4.

  • Bloomberg surveys show that the winter wheat crop is likely 76% planted within a trade range of 74-80%. This would compare to 65% in last week’s survey and the 73% from the USDA last year.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 481k tons which compared to 448k last week and 271k a year ago at this time. Top destinations were Nigeria, Thailand, and Korean Republic.

Chicago Wheat Finds Support: Wheat futures found support soon after breaking below the 502 level. With support established near 491, the first point of technical resistance is near 517 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Reverses, Begins Trending Higher: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Structural support lies below, near 477. The first point of technical resistance can be found at the 50-day moving average, near 507.verage.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 570 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found at the 100-day moving average, at 591. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-20 End of Day: Grains Led Higher by Soybean Strength

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures inched higher as export inspections continue to be strong.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans led grains higher as optimism continues to grow that a trade deal with China can be reached.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed, with pressure from strong foreign production continuing to weigh on the market.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new commitment of traders data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fought off early session weakness to finish with small gains to start the week. A quiet day overall with December corn trading a 4 ½ trading range. A strong week of export sales and strength in the soybean market provided support.

  • Weekly export inspections remain strong for corn.  For the week ending October 16, US exporters shipped 1.317 MMT (51.9 mb) of corn. For the marketing, total inspections have reached 368 mb, up 61% over last year.

  • Corn harvest is projected to be past the halfway point.  Analysts estimate the corn harvest is nearing 59% complete, up 15% over last week’s estimates. With the government shutdown, Crop Progress report is still in pause on Monday afternoons.

  • Optimism for a possible trade deal with China is helped support the grain markets. President Trump made comments on Monday that he is hopeful a deal could come together by the end of the month.

  • A lack of farmers selling or disappointing yields is supporting the cash market for corn. Areas have seen basis improvement, supporting cash.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher for the third consecutive day thanks to optimism that President Trump will strike a trade deal with China. November soybeans gained 12-1/4 cents to $10.31-3/4 while March was up 13-1/4 to $10.64. December soybean meal was up $4.00 to $285 while December bean oil was up 0.18 cents to 51.31 cents.

  • Today, President Trump made comments on China saying that China could pay a 155% tariff on US goods if no deal is reached by November 1, that China has been “very respectful” to the US, and that he expects to work out a “fair deal” with President Xi. In addition, China said it would reimburse tariff costs for soybeans bought for state reserves from the US.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 54.2 million bushels for the week ending October 16. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 204 mb, which is down 31% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be down 10% this year from the previous year.

  • Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 17,500 contracts of soybeans which may have brought them back to a small net long position. They were likely buyers of both soybean meal and oil. Funds likely added to that long position today.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close after a two-sided trade. December Chi gained 1 cent to 504-3/4, KC lost 1-1/2 cents to 490, and MIAX was unchanged at 548-1/2. In general, the wheat market continues to trudge along near the lows without much reason to rally – large crops expected out of Argentina and Australia may further limit upside potential.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 17.7 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 411.0 mb. This is up 20% from the year prior and inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Exports for 25/26 are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from last year.

  • One unidentified grain analyst in Australia increased the estimate of their nation’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 35.7 mmt. If this new estimate is accurate, it would become the third largest crop on record. Compared to the USDA projection of 34.5 mmt.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $231/mt, which is up $2 from the week before. Additionally, SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian October wheat exports slightly to 5.1 mmt; this compares with 4.6 mmt in September.

  • Chinese customs data indicates that their wheat and wheat flour imports for the month of September totaled 390,000 mt, which is up about 60% year over year. However, year to date total imports have reached only 2.99 mmt, which is down about 72% year over year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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10-20 Midday: Grains Start the Week Mixed Amid Data Uncertainty

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading lower at midday as the ongoing government shutdown limits available data. Demand remains strong in both export and ethanol sectors, but the lack of USDA reports has left traders without confirmation of new sales or weekly export figures. December corn is trading lower at 4.20.

  • Over the weekend, President Trump accused the president of Colombia of being an “illegal drug leader” and announced that all U.S. subsidies to Colombia would be suspended. Colombia consistently ranks among the top five importers of U.S. corn, and in retaliation, it could shift purchases toward South American suppliers.

  • U.S. harvest progress continues under generally favorable weather conditions. However, the 6–10 day forecast calls for above-normal precipitation across the Northern Plains and Northwestern Midwest, which could lead to some delays.

  • Argentina’s corn planting has reached 30% completion, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The Exchange’s latest forecast pegs production at a record 61 million metric tons.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday following comments from President Trump expressing confidence that a trade deal with China can be reached, despite the lack of recent Chinese soybean purchases. The proposed meeting is scheduled to take place in 11 days. Soybean and soybean meal are higher, while soybean oil trades lower. November soybeans are higher trading at 10.28.

  • China made no U.S. soybean purchases in September, the first time in seven years the month has passed without Chinese buying activity.

  • Corn planting in Brazil is progressing quickly, with Patria reporting 23.27% of fields planted versus 9.33% a year ago. Favorable weather conditions and adequate rainfall are helping sustain the accelerated pace.

  • Late last week, Agriculture Secretary Rollins made vague comments suggesting that the U.S. is in negotiations to crush soybeans in South America, which may have contributed to recent market strength.

  • Wheat futures are trading mixed at midday amid a lack of fresh news. However, short covering and a slightly improved technical outlook across the grain complex are providing mild support. December Chicago wheat is trading up at 5.05.

  • Wheat markets face continued pressure as global production and supply estimates grow. The latest report from consultancy IKAR indicates Russian wheat production could reach 88 million metric tons.

  • SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in October to reach 5.1 million tons, up from 4.6 million tons in September. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s exports so far this marketing year have reached 5.68 million tons, compared to 7.34 million tons during the same period a year ago.

  • Despite large world wheat supplies, U.S. export sales and inspections are exceeding expectations. Without the latest USDA data, however, traders are forced to rely on private data and speculation.

  • Australia is on track to harvest its third-largest crop on record, with the European Union also expecting strong production. Argentina’s crop prospects remain favorable, but cold weather this week may lead to some yield losses.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-20 Opening Update: Soybeans Surge Higher, Corn and Wheat Trade Quietly

ByGrain Market Insider

Check out our recently revised Quote Board

  • Corn futures are unchanged to slightly higher but are still above the 100-day moving average. December is unchanged at $4.22-1/2 while March is up 1/2 cent to $4.37.

  • In Brazil, corn prices are moving higher on the spot market as producers are focused on the 25/26 planting season and are less focused on closing deals. Values at ports have remained firm.

  • While the Commitment of Traders report is indefinitely delayed due to the shutdown, it is estimated that funds were buyers of 25,500 contracts of corn over the past 5 trading days. Funds are estimated to be short around 70,000 contracts.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market found support in the 50-day moving average and October 1 low. The market was able to close above the 100-day moving average, which will now offer support.

  • Soybean futures are sharply higher to start the day on hope for a China deal. November soybeans are up 9-1/2 cents to $10.29 while March is up 10 cents to $10.60-3/4. December soybean meal is up $4.30 to $285.30 and December soybean oil is down 0.12 cents to 51.01 cents.

  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last Friday that he would meet with Chinese Vice Premier to avoid an escalation of US tariffs on Chinese goods. President Trump is also expected to meet with President Xi within two weeks.

  • Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 17,500 contracts of soybeans which may have brought them back to a small net long position. They were likely buyers of both soybean meal and oil.

Soybeans Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance and have since traded sideways as the market awaits additional information. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

  • Wheat is trading quietly lower with December wheat down 1/4 cent to $5.03-1/2, Dec KC wheat down 1/2 cent to $4.91, and Minneapolis wheat down 1 cent to $5.48-1/2.

  • In Australia, projections for the wheat crop continue to improve as harvest begins. Analysts have raised their estimates according to a Reuters poll due to better than expected yields. Estimates call for around 35.7 mmt of wheat produced or more.

  • Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 4,500 contracts of what which would leave them with a net short position of approximately 90,000 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-17 End of Day: Grains Close Week Higher on Market Strength Amid U.S.-China Optimism

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn closed the week modestly higher, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains on optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans wrapped up the week with gains across the entire soy complex, fueled by hopes that upcoming U.S.-China talks could lead to a resolution in the ongoing trade dispute.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Friday’s wheat trade ended positive, fueled by strength in other grains and potential weather concerns in Argentina.

  • To see the updated U.S. and global weather maps, scroll to the bottom.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher for the fourth consecutive session, closing with moderate gains. December contracts drew support from strength in other grains and tested resistance levels, but end-of-week profit-taking limited further upside. December corn gained ¾ cent to 422 ½, and March added 1 cent to 436 ½. For the week, December corn finished 9 ½ cents higher.

  • A more positive tone on U.S.-China trade provided support to the soybean market on Friday, while spillover strength offered some optimism for corn.

  • With harvest pushing the 50% level nationally, the lack of producers selling has helped support the market. Corn spreads between the front of the market versus deferred futures have been tightening as end users are trying to encourage movement of corn.

  • The market will be shifting focus to South American weather as Brazil and Argentina are starting corn planting. Rain has fallen in key areas of the two countries, which should help promote a good start to their next year’s corn crops.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day after President Trump said that 100% tariffs on China were not sustainable and said he would in fact meet with China’s President Xi. November soybeans gained 8-3/4 cents to $10.19-1/2 and March gained 7 cents to $10.50-3/4. December soybean meal gained $4.10 to $281 and December bean oil gained 0.26 cents to 51.13 cents.

  • USDA export sales reports are paused indefinitely but estimates for the export sales report ending the week of October 9 see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 1,400k tons with an average estimate of 975k tons. This would compare to 1,703k a year ago.

  • Market talk indicates that China may auction 3.5 million tons of soybeans from state reserves, opting to rely on domestic stocks instead of buying Brazil’s higher-priced supplies. However, with President Trump expected to meet with President Xi in the upcoming weeks and a phone call planned soon, renewed trade discussions could set the stage for potential progress toward a deal.

  • For the week, November soybeans gained 12-3/4 cents taking back all over last week’s losses and then some while March gained 13-1/4 cents. December soybean meal gained $6.00 for the week while December bean oil gained 1.16 cents.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with small gains in Chicago and Kansas City futures, but small losses for Minneapolis. December Chi was up 1-1/4 cents at 503-3/4, KC gained 2-3/4 to 491-1/2, and MIAX lost 1 cent to 548-1/2. Wheat remains a follower, trading near contract lows. Despite being oversold, a lack of fresh news has limited any short-covering rally.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, a cold front coming in next week could threaten Argentina’s wheat crop, which is currently rated 90% good to excellent. Harvest is expected to start next month; the BAGE has kept their production forecast unchanged at 22 mmt. This compares with the USDA estimate at 19.5 mmt and the Rosario Grain Exchange at 23 mmt.

  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has raised its estimate for the region’s wheat production by 8.6% to 12.6 mmt, which would set a record if realized. Total grain production in Western Australia could reach 25.5 mmt, just shy of the 2022 record of 26 mmt.

  • Ukrainian grain exports so far this season are down 37% year over year at 7.9 mmt, according to their agriculture ministry. Of that total, wheat accounts for 5.6 mmt, which would be down 21% year over year.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, the French soft wheat crop has been 27% planted as of Monday, an increase of 5% from the week prior. This is above last year’s pace by about 10% and compares with the five-year average of 22%.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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10-17 Midday: Grains Continue Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is extending its gains into the midday session, hovering near a three-week high as renewed demand optimism and steady fund buying keep upward momentum intact. December corn is up at 4.22 ¾.

  • Harvest pressure on corn is likely near its peak, but many in the market expect the USDA’s yield estimate to be revised lower in the next supply and demand report—once the government reopens and the report is released.

  • U.S. export prices for corn remain the most competitive globally, while the U.S. dollar has seen at least a modest pullback this week. Strong export demand was noted earlier in the week as prices dipped to a one-and-a-half-month low.

  • Planting progress in Argentina has reached roughly 30%, while France’s corn harvest is a little more than halfway finished.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday as we wrap up the week’s session on Friday. The market is finding support from lighter-than-expected U.S. farmer harvest sales and optimism surrounding a potential U.S.–China meeting in two weeks. The entire soy complex is posting gains. November soybeans are up at 10.17 ¼.

  • Market chatter indicates China may auction 3.5 million tons of soybeans from state reserves, opting to rely on domestic stocks instead of buying Brazil’s higher-priced supplies.

  • Non-Chinese buyers may look to the U.S. for soybeans as prices remain a significant bargain compared to other origins. The U.S. is reportedly in trade discussions with South Korea, requesting additional soybean purchases. Currently, about 50% of South Korea’s soybean imports come from the U.S.

  • Agriculture Secretary Rollins noted Thursday that the U.S. is exploring opportunities to crush U.S. soybeans in South America, aiming to diversify export markets and reduce dependence on Chinese purchases.

  • Wheat is trading mixed to higher at midday as the market reacts to limited news, though reports of ample global supplies continue to weigh on prices. December wheat is up at 5.03 ¼.

  • Recent U.S. wheat sales to Algeria and South Korea suggest that prices are attractive enough to spur international buying. U.S. SRW continues to compete well against French and Russian wheat on the global market.

  • Wheat markets continue to contend with large global supplies, with the Grain Industry of Western Australia noting that favorable weather conditions could result in a record crop.

  • Argentina’s wheat crop conditions have been strong, but the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange warns that a cold snap over the next 10 days could reduce yields.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-17 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Heading Into Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

Check out our recently revised Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning as harvest hits around the halfway mark . December futures are up 2-1/2 cents to $4.24-1/4 and are up 11 cents on the week. March corn is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.38.

  • Although with the government shutdown, USDA export sales are delayed indefinitely, estimates have still been released. Corn export sales as of October 9 are forecast to come in between 1,200k and 2,000k tons with an average estimate of 1,450k tons which would compare to 2,226k a year ago.

  • Brazilian corn production for 25/26 is estimated between 128.9 and 148.2 mmt with an average guess of 138.4 mmt as strong demand drives the expansion of acreage. This estimate is above the USDA’s most recent guess of 131 mmt.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market found support in the 50-day moving average and October 1 low. The market was able to close above the 100-day moving average, which will now offer support.

  • Soybean futures are higher to start the day with November up 4-1/4 cents to $10.15 and is up 8-1/2 cents on the week. March soybeans are up 4-1/4 cents to $10.48, December soybean meal is up $2.90 to $279.80 and December bean oil is down 0.35 cents to 50.50 cents.

  • Estimates for the export sales report ending the week of October 9 see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 1,400k tons with an average estimate of 975k tons. This would compare to 1,703k a year ago.

  • The NOPA crush report for September showed US soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging given Chinese absence.

Soybeans Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance and have since traded sideways as the market awaits additional information. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

  • All three wheat classes are higher this morning with December Chicago wheat up 1-3/4 cents to $5.04-1/4, KC wheat is up 1-1/4 cents to $4.90, and Minn wheat is up 2-3/4 cents to $5.52-1/4.

  • Estimates for wheat export sales ending the week of October 9 see sales between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 538k tons. This would compare to 504k tons a year ago.

  • Russia reportedly sees their grain export potential for 25/26 at 50 mmt and has already harvested nearly 132 mmt of grain and 90 mmt of wheat with harvest 91% complete. Russia has also resumed exporting wheat to Indonesia after trade negotiations.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-16 End of Day: Corn, Soybeans Advance; Wheat Closes Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Thursday’s corn session ended higher for the third consecutive day, supported by news regarding China.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher across the entire soy complex, supported by bullish NOPA crush data released yesterday.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat finished mixed, with some downward pressure stemming from a weaker MATIF wheat close.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

  • The release of new export data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher for the third consecutive session on Thursday. Technical buying, along with talk of an extension to China’s tariff exemption deadline, helped push prices to test resistance levels above the market. December futures gained 5 cents to 421 ¾ and March added 3 ¼ to 435 ½.

  • Corn futures rallied to resistance just over the 420 level, which held upward momentum for the session. Friday and Monday trade may be key to price action if the market sees additional technical buying strength.

  • Grain markets found buying support on talk of an extension to China’s tariff relief deadline. Rhetoric has intensified this week, with a mix of both optimistic and cautious commentary as the meeting between President Trump and President Xi approaches at the end of the month.

  • Daily ethanol production for the week ending October 10 averaged 1.074 million barrels. This was a new high daily production for that week of the year. A total of 107 MB of corn was used in the production process, which is just below the total needed to reach the USDA market year target

  • Corn harvest pressure may continue to act as a limiting factor for the market. Producers are moving into the final two-thirds of harvest, and a steady flow of fresh bushels is making its way into the pipeline.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher thanks to bullish NOPA crush data yesterday but backed off from highs earlier in the day. November soybeans gained 4-1/4 cents to $10.10-3/4 while March gained 4 cents to $10.43-3/4. December soybean meal was up $1.00 to $276.90 and December soybean oil was up 0.07 cents to 50.87 cents.

  • The NOPA crush report for September showed U.S. soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels, which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging, given Chinese absence.

  • Today, Secretary Rollins made multiple announcements regarding the ag sector and soybeans. She said that the U.S. was in talks with some South American nations over the possibility of crushing U.S. and other soybeans in South America. She also said that the U.S. was not waiting to reach a trade deal with China and would open up markets to other countries.

  • China has held off on large purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January delivery as a result of high Brazilian premiums. China still needs roughly 9 mmt of soybeans and could tap into state reserves to meet short-term needs.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close today; while Chicago finished higher, Kansas City settled on both sides of neutral, and Minneapolis MIAX futures posted small losses. December Chi gained 3-3/4 cents to 502-1/2, KC was up 1/2 cent at 488-3/4, and MIAX lost 1-1/2 cents to close at 549-1/2. Some pressure may have stemmed from a lower close for MATIF wheat futures; some contracts of which made new lows this session

  • Globally, Algeria is reported to have purchased about 400,000 mt of durum wheat, paying between $324-$334/mt on a CNF basis. Egypt has also reportedly bought two cargoes of wheat from France, paying $240/mt on a FOB basis. Additionally, there is talk that Egypt may be seeking Black Sea wheat too.

  • According to their Agriculture minister, Russia has harvested about 132 mmt of grain so far during the 25/26 season. Russia has kept their total grain harvest estimate steady at 135 mmt, of which wheat would account for 90 mmt. Additionally, grain exports this season are projected at 50 mmt.

  • Australia is set to see an increase in rainfall for the second half of this month. This should be beneficial for development of their wheat crop. Western Australia could remain drier than normal, but this is not currently a major concern for the crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 628.75 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sales target has been lowered from 565 to 563.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 617.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 628.75 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center