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5-5 End of Day: Grains Slide as Weather and Macro Pressures Weigh on Markets

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures finished lower as warm, dry forecasts across the Corn Belt supported planting progress and kept selling pressure on the market.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures weakened in bear spreading action, with the front months leading the decline and giving back Friday’s gains. Weak energy prices and ample planting conditions added to the pressure.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures fell sharply, led by winter wheat, as broad commodity weakness and a risk-off tone weighed. Spring wheat losses were modest, supported by dryness in the Northern Plains.

  • To see the updated 15-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the U.S. and the 8-14 day temperature outlook U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Technical selling and long liquidation weighed on corn, with prices ending moderately to sharply lower. Favorable weather and solid planting progress kept pressure on the market as supply concerns eased.

  • Corn planting is expected to reach around 40% in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Forecasts remain warm and dry across most of the Corn Belt, supporting rapid planting for the 2025/26 crop.

  • Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.

  • Weekly U.S. corn export inspections remain strong. For the week ending May 1, inspections totaled 1.608 MMT (63.3 mb), near the top of expectations. Inspections are likely to stay firm until Brazil and Argentina enter the market more aggressively.

  • Managed speculative funds have been pressuring the corn market as traders have cut their current net long positions. On Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, managed funds reduced their net long position to 71,329 contracts, this was down 41,479 contracts from the previous week’s report as good planting forecasts and Brazil crop expectations have triggered the selling pressure.

Corn Sandwiched Between Support and Resistance
Corn futures staged a breakout in April after repeatedly defending key support near 450 throughout March. A bullish April WASDE report — driven by stronger-than-expected demand — lit the spark, propelling prices through the 50-day moving average and igniting renewed bullish momentum. As the market enters May, traders are focused on two key drivers: weather outlooks across the Corn Belt and ongoing demand signals. The February highs just above 510 now stand as the next upside target. However, early May weakness has cracked support near 470, leaving the door open for a retest of the familiar 450 level — the early 2025 low — as the next key floor.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 41,476 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net long 71,329 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • NEW: Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

    • NEW: Tomorrow, Grain Market Insider will recommend adding additional downside coverage via 1040 January put options. Be on the lookout for recommendation alerts tomorrow.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

      • The 1093 cash sales target has been cancelled, leaving only the 1114 target active.

      • A target to exit a portion of the 1100 calls if November trades to 1085 has been added. This target would hit before the 88 cents exit target, making the latter target to exit all remaining 1100 calls.

      • If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sale at 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed lower in bear spreading action, with front-month contracts leading the decline and erasing Friday’s gains. Expectations remain for another strong planting pace in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Soybean meal and oil also fell, with oil under heavier pressure following declines in crude and palm oil.

  • Weekly export inspections were soft but within trade estimates. For the week ending May 1, inspections totaled 11.9 million bushels, bringing 2024/25 cumulative inspections to 1.597 billion bushels — up 11% from last year. Mexico and China were the top destinations.

  • Malaysian palm oil stocks likely posted their biggest monthly increase since August 2023, as production recovered from recent weather disruptions. Rising inventories have added pressure to soybean oil.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 7,135 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,202 contracts. They bought 12,488 contracts of bean oil and sold 24,716 contracts of bean meal.s.

Soybean Futures Hold Above Key Support
Soybean futures plunged in early April as news of fresh tariffs sent prices tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 level — a floor that had held firm throughout March. The break triggered a wave of technical selling, but the dip was short-lived. Aggressive buying interest quickly emerged, sparking a sharp rebound that not only reclaimed the 1000 level but also vaulted futures back above key moving averages. Notably, the 200-day moving average — a persistent ceiling for nearly two years — was decisively overtaken. With momentum building, the market is now setting its sights on a potential retest of the February highs near 1080, while the reclaimed 200-day average is poised to serve as a strong layer of support during any spring setbacks.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,135 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net long 38,202 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board, with winter wheat hit hardest. Spring wheat losses were limited as dry conditions in the Northern Plains offered support. It was a broad risk-off day for commodities, with Paris milling wheat and crude oil also sharply lower, adding pressure to U.S. wheat markets.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 11.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 727 mb, which is up 14% from last year and slightly behind the forecasted pace. Total 24/25 exports are estimated by the USDA at 820 mb, up 16% from the year prior.

  • Forecasted rains in Argentina could delay corn and soybean harvests and winter wheat planting, though the moisture will aid early crop establishment during the May–July planting window.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling a record 31,486 contracts of Chicago wheat, pushing their net short to 121,415 — the largest since June 2023. Across all three U.S. wheat classes, managed money is now net short a record 207,798 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Sales target has been lowered. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,486 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 121,415 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,645 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 67,269 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, April 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,532 contracts between April 22 – April 29, bringing their total position to a net short 19,114 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-5 Midday: Favorable Planting Forecast Pressures Grains Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 461.5 -7.5
DEC ’25 445.25 -5
DEC ’26 462 -3.5
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1050.5 -7.5
NOV ’25 1024 -6.5
NOV ’26 1032 -6
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 536.25 -6.75
SEP ’25 550 -6.75
JUL ’26 607.5 -4.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 534.5 -6.75
SEP ’25 549 -6.5
JUL ’26 604.5 -6.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 610.5 -0.5
SEP ’25 621.5 -1
SEP ’26 663.5 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5688 -21
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 56.16 -1.67
Gold
AUG ’25 3350 78.3

  • Corn futures are lower to start the week as the next two weeks look mostly dry across the Corn Belt, encouraging rapid planting progress.

  • Traders expect Monday afternoon’s USDA crop progress report to show corn planting at 41% to 45% complete.

  • Despite the weaker price action, corn continues to find support from strong demand, which the USDA may need to reflect by raising demand estimates in the May 12th WASDE report.

  • Soybeans are slightly lower to start the week, with pressure from weaker energy prices and favorable Midwest weather conditions.

  • OPEC recently announced an increase in crude oil production. Crude oil prices have been declining since the start of the year and are now at $57 per barrel — their lowest level since early 2021.

  • In Monday’s crop progress report, traders are expecting U.S. soybean planting to be 29% to 33% complete. If current weather forecasts hold, planting could finish at a record-fast pace.

  • Wheat futures started the week lower, following pressure from declines in corn and soybean futures.

  • Spring wheat planting is estimated to be 51% to 54% complete as of Sunday.

  • Winter wheat condition ratings are expected to improve slightly, with more acres rated good to excellent.

  • Recent rains across the Plains have been beneficial, though additional rainfall forecast for the Southern Plains this week raises flooding concerns, particularly in saturated areas.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-05 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower Across the Board to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 466.25 -2.75
DEC ’25 448.75 -1.5
DEC ’26 463.5 -2

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1051.25 -6.75
NOV ’25 1024.75 -5.75
NOV ’26 1033.25 -4.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 540 -3
SEP ’25 553.5 -3.25
JUL ’26 610 -2.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 537 -4.25
SEP ’25 551 -4.5
JUL ’26 611.25 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 614.75 3.75
SEP ’25 624.75 2.25
SEP ’26 663.5 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5665.5 -43.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 57.25 -0.58

Gold

AUG ’25 3355 83.3

  • Corn is lower to start the week ahead of the planting progress report this afternoon in which trade expects a big jump in planting thanks to beneficial weather. Demand has been firm which has kept prices supported overall.

  • Mexico is now set to become the top importer of US ag exports according to CoBank. Last year, ag exports to Mexico rose to 31.4 billion dollars.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn as of April 29. They sold a whopping 41,476 contracts which lowered their net long position to 71,329 contracts.

  • Soybeans are lower this morning but remain rangebound with futures hovering around the 200-day moving average. Pressure comes from weaker crude and palm oil prices after OPEC said it would likely increase crude production. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.

  • Palm oil reserves in Malaysia most likely increased the most since August 2023 as a result of increased production following a period of poor weather and floods which caused inventories to shrink. This has pressured soybean oil as well.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 7,135 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,202 contracts. They bought 12,488 contracts of bean oil and sold 24,716 contracts of bean meal.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC wheat lower but Minneapolis wheat higher. Minneapolis wheat has been more supported as trade worries that the trade war with Canada will impact imports of Canadian wheat.

  • The USDA attaché for Canada sees wheat production in the country increasing by 2% in 25/26 citing an increase in planted area for wheat, corn, and oats, and a decrease in planted acreage for barley.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 31,386 contracts which increased their net short position to 121,415 contracts. They sold 10,645 contracts of KC wheat which increased their net short position to 67,269 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-02 End of Day: Grains Diverge Friday: Wheat Surges, Corn Slips, Soybeans Stabilize

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures saw mixed trading on Friday, as selling pressure weighed on front-month contracts while new crop futures posted gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week on a firm note, gaining strength over the last two sessions as July contracts test the top of their recent trading range.

  • Wheat: Wheat led the grain complex higher, posting double-digit gains across all three classes as prices rebounded from recent lows.

  • To see the updated 4-week drought monitor change for the U.S. as well as the 7-day rainfall forecast from the WPC for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw mixed trade again on Friday as selling pressure at the front end of the market limited gains. Good planting pace, and a strong Brazil corn crop limited the front end of the corn market, despite a still strong demand tone. For the week, July futures finished 16 ¼ cents lower as the corn market saw strong bear spreading.

  • The old crop corn demand tone remains supportive despite the weak price action this week. Export sales, export shipments, and ethanol usage are trending ahead of the USDA targets for the marketing year. The USDA may need to make adjustments to the demand on May 12 WASDE report, lowering old crop carryout even further.

  • Brazil weather forecast has been favorable for development of the key second crop corn. Analyst estimates for this Brazil crop have been increased, and harvest could limit summer global corn prices in the export market.

  • Commodity markets in general were supported by a potential easing of the trade war between the U.S. and China. Reports of both parties may be more open to talks, and China removed the tariffs on $40 billion worth of U.S. imports.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None. If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with strength over the past two days to close out the week. While July beans remain in their trading range, they are at the top, and another 10-cent increase would be a breakout to the upside. There has been some talk of too much rain in some areas, but funds are likely taking profits ahead of the weekend. Soybean meal was higher while soybean oil followed crude lower.

  • Today, StoneX raised their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop for 24/25 to 168.4 mmt from 167.5 mmt in their previous estimates. This would be a record crop at a time where China may be poised to purchase nearly all of their soybeans from Brazil, forgoing the U.S., unless tariffs are lifted.

  • China is reportedly evaluating the U.S. in order to negotiate tariffs as long as “Washington does not engage in extortion and coercion”. While both sides clearly want to negotiate a deal, neither country has seemed willing to back down. A deal being made by harvest would be crucial for soybean demand in the U.S.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 1-1/4 cents, recovering much of their losses earlier in the week. November soybeans meanwhile lost 4-1/2 cents. July soybean meal lost $1.60 to $296.90 while July soybean oil lost 0.38 cents to 49.43 cents.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led the charge higher in the grain complex today, posting double-digit gains across all three classes. Along with a weaker U.S. dollar and higher close for Paris milling wheat, U.S. futures also gathered strength from improving relations between the U.S. and China. These factors, along with a positive technical outlook, may have also paved the way for fund short covering today.

  • Reportedly, China may be open to trade talks with the U.S., which could include ag goods. Additionally, China may be in need of purchasing more wheat due to current dryness in some of their key growing regions. There is also talk that their stockpiles may have declined over the past five years to levels below official reports.

  • Heavy rains continue to fall across the U.S. southern Plains, which should be beneficial for crop development and relieving drought. But some areas, including central Oklahoma and northern Texas, will see flash flooding. And with more rain in the forecast for this region next week, winter wheat quality concerns may begin to arise as the crop is heading.

  • Aside from the dryness in China’s wheat belt, the Black Sea area is also said to be too dry. Furthermore, cold temperatures and frost concerns in northeastern Europe may have given wheat a boost today via additional fund short covering.

  • According to the U.S. ag attaché to Canada, their 25/26 wheat production is expected to increase by 2%. This is largely due to a bigger planted area – in March, Stats Canada projected that area would increase by 2.6% versus the year prior.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 657 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 49 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-02 Midday: Soybeans and Wheat Remain Firm, Corn Turns Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 472.25 0
DEC ’25 450.75 3.5
DEC ’26 466 2.25
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1058.25 8
NOV ’25 1030.75 6.75
NOV ’26 1040 7.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 543 12
SEP ’25 556.5 11.25
JUL ’26 612.5 8
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 539.5 12
SEP ’25 554 12
JUL ’26 609.25 9.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 607 11.5
SEP ’25 619 11.25
SEP ’26 661.5 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5696.25 73
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 57.83 -0.85
Gold
AUG ’25 3292.6 42.3

  • Corn futures are trading mixed at midday, with increased corn acres and favorable weather, but still drawing support from yesterday’s favorable export report.

  • The 6–14 day forecast for the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt shows mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures, favorable for accelerated planting. Meanwhile, the percentage of corn acreage affected by drought has declined to 20%, down 6 points from last week.

  • In Argentina, the corn harvest has now reached 31% complete, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange.

  • Corn markets may face downward pressure ahead, driven by expectations of increased U.S. corn acreage, a large Brazilian crop, and the absence of any major weather-related disruptions in the U.S.

  • Soybean futures are trading higher at midday, maintaining strong momentum. The market is finding underlying support from a minor overnight breakthrough in U.S.–China trade discussions. While soybeans and soybean meal are posting gains, soybean oil is trading lower.

  • Overnight, a potential breakthrough emerged as China indicated it is evaluating the need for trade talks with the U.S., following a recent outreach from Washington. However, with China on holiday until May 5th, any formal negotiations are expected to be on hold until then.

  • U.S. soybeans have recently lost competitiveness in global markets as Brazilian export premiums have dropped sharply.

  • Recent rainfall has reduced the share of U.S. soybean acreage under drought conditions to 15%, down 6 percentage points from last week and now below last year’s level of 17%.

  • Soybean oil remains under pressure at midday, weighed down by weakness in both crude oil and palm oil markets.

  • Wheat futures remain firm at midday, supported by the sharply lower U.S. dollar and a very oversold technical situation.

  • A significant drop in U.S. wheat prices has made U.S. wheat more competitive on the global market, potentially boosting business for U.S. exporters.

  • Overnight, South Korean flour millers secured nearly 36,000 metric tons of U.S. mixed wheat.

  • Early this morning, storms are moving across the Texas Panhandle and much of Oklahoma, with showers also affecting Kansas and Nebraska. Additional soaking rains are expected next week, which should benefit wheat crops currently under drought stress.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-02 Opening Update: Grain Complex Trading Higher Across the Board

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 473.25 1
DEC ’25 449 1.75
DEC ’26 464.75 1

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1054.25 4
NOV ’25 1027.25 3.25
NOV ’26 1033.75 1

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 538.25 7.25
SEP ’25 552.25 7
JUL ’26 606 1.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 536.25 8.75
SEP ’25 550.75 8.75
JUL ’26 600 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 604.25 8.75
SEP ’25 615.75 8
SEP ’26 661.5 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5651.75 28.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 58.64 -0.04

Gold

AUG ’25 3299.1 48.8

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning with support from yesterday’s export sales report that saw new sales of 39.9 million bushels which put total commitments at 90.7% of the export estimate with 18 weeks left in the marketing year.

  • Yesterday, the USDA released the monthly grain crushings report which saw the total ethanol grind at 454.2 mb in March which was 2.8% lower than March the previous year.

  • Mexico is now set to become the top importer of US ag exports according to CoBank. Last year, ag exports to Mexico rose to 31.4 billion dollars, and Canada has begun to shun US goods as retaliation towards the tariffs.

  • Soybeans are higher to start the day but have still not broken out of their trading range which has hovered around the 200-day moving average since April 14. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil has followed crude oil lower.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were ok for soybeans at 478k tons which compared to 277k tons the previous week. Top destinations were to China, Mexico, and Germany.

  •  The USDA’s monthly oilseed report saw soybean crushings at 206.6 million bushels in March which was 1.5% higher than the same time frame a year ago. Crude oil production was 2.9% higher than last year while crude and oil stocks were down 12.2% year over year.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and seem to be leading the way for corn and soybeans. Funds may finally be starting to unwind their very large net short position with prices oversold and too cheap compared to corn.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were ok for wheat at 310k tons which compared to 227k tons last week. The top buyers were Nigeria, Colombia, and Thailand.

  • The USDA attaché for Canada sees wheat production in the country increasing by 2% in 25/26 citing an increase in planted area for wheat, corn, and oats, and a decrease in planted acreage for barley.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-01 End of Day: Grains Kick off May with Mixed Performance

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Continuing the mixed trend seen throughout the session, corn futures settled mixed, as selling pressure prevented front-end contracts from posting gains.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended Thursday’s session with gains, rebounding after two consecutive days of losses, driven by today’s export sales report.

  • Wheat: After losing strength during the midday session, wheat futures ended mixed, with deferred contracts closing lower, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No Changes: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw a quiet session with mixed trade, as front-end futures experienced light selling pressure. July corn futures have declined in three of the past four sessions and are down 13 cents for the week heading into Friday’s trade.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending April 24, U.S. exporters sold 1,014 MMT 39.9 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year and 245,000 MT (9.6 mb) for 2025-26. Old crop sales were within expectations, but well off the pace for the past few weeks. Total sales for the current marketing year are up 26% from last year and corn export demand has remained strong.

  • The U.S. dollar index has formed a short-term bottom as trade war concerns have eased, with recent economic data possibly signaling a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve. A stronger U.S. dollar can hurt U.S. competitiveness on the global stage and may limit any price rallies in corn futures.

  • Deliveries against the May corn futures have been light, (25 contract each day), which should help support prices as delivered bushels aren’t retendered back into the market and adding selling pressure. The lack of deliveries is also reflective of a relatively tight nearby corn supply.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day higher, snapping a two-day losing streak, though July futures remain within a tight trading range, hovering around the 200-day moving average. The market is likely to see a breakout in either direction, with weather conditions playing a key role. Today, soybean oil helped push prices higher, buoyed by a rise in crude oil, while soybean meal posted losses.

  • Today’s Export Sales report was once again middle of the road for soybeans, within analyst trade ranges. The USDA reported an increase of 15.7 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 1.8 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 21.6 mb were above the 11.5 mb needed each week.

  • The Argentinian soybean harvest may be yielding better than expected. Dr. Cordonnier, crop analyst, has raised his projection for the Argentina soybean crop to 50 MMT, up 1 MMT from his last projection. This is slightly above USDA projections at 49 MMT.

  • According to the EIA, soybean oil used for U.S. biofuel production fell in February to 576 million pounds. This compares to January where soybean oil for biodiesel was 654 million pounds.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, wheat futures closed in a similar fashion. Light bull spreading was observed in Chicago futures, where front-month contracts finished slightly higher, while deferred contracts ended lower. Kansas City futures were mostly lower, and Minneapolis futures were mixed. Wheat futures remain oversold and in need of a correction, but today’s jump in the U.S. dollar may have limited any rally potential.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 8.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which falls below the 22.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb. Total shipments have reached 682 mb for 24/25, which is up 11% from last year.

  • According to the Indian Food Secretary, their government has purchased 25.6 mmt of domestic wheat for state reserves. This is far above the total purchased up to this point last year, at 20.5 mmt. In total, India is expected to purchase 31.2 mmt for their stockpiles.

  • After recent rains, both winter and spring wheat growing regions in the U.S. saw big declines in drought readings. According to the USDA, as of April 29, an estimated 23% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is down 10% from the week before. Additionally, spring wheat acres in drought fell from 49% to 37% during the same time period.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: Target 657 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 50 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, today presents a timely opportunity to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-01 Midday: Wheat Remains Firm at Midday, Corn and Soybeans Fall

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 474 -1.5
DEC ’25 446.75 0.5
DEC ’26 462.5 0.75
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1042 -2.5
NOV ’25 1017.5 -0.75
NOV ’26 1028.25 -1
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 536.25 5.5
SEP ’25 550 5
JUL ’26 608.5 2.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 532.75 3.25
SEP ’25 547 2.75
JUL ’26 604.5 0.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 600 3
SEP ’25 612 2.5
SEP ’26 661.5 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5680 93
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 57.88 0.26
Gold
AUG ’25 3250.9 -97

  • Corn futures are mostly weaker at midday, pressured by improving favorable weather which will help speed along planting progress.

  • Weekly corn export sales came in at 50 mb, which was in line with trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 2.313 billion bushels which is up 11% from last year.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs Argentine’s corn harvest at 31.3% done, up from 29.7% complete last week.

  • Soybean prices are trending lower at midday, pressured by falling crude oil prices and harvest progressing in South America.

  • Weekly soybean export sales totaled 18 mb, in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments sit at 1.742 billion bushels, up 13% from a year ago.

  • Argentine soybean harvest jumped to 23.6% complete up from 14.5% last week according to The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

  • Soybean oil for use in biofuels dropped to 576 million pounds, down from 654 million pounds in January.

  • Wheat futures remain firm at midday, supported by increased domestic usage and potential for increased global demand as US prices remain competitive.

  • Weekly wheat export sales were in line with trade expectations at 12 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 785 mb, up 14% from last year.

  • Ukraine’s wheat exports during the month of April fell 56% from April of 2024 due to shrinking stocks.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-01 Opening Update: Grains Mixed to Start May With Corn and Wheat Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 478 2.5
DEC ’25 447 0.75
DEC ’26 461.25 -0.5

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1039 -5.5
NOV ’25 1012.75 -5.5
NOV ’26 1023.25 -6

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 533.75 3
SEP ’25 548.25 3.25
JUL ’26 609 3

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 533 3.5
SEP ’25 547.75 3.5
JUL ’26 605.75 2

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 595.5 -1.5
SEP ’25 607.75 -1.75
SEP ’26 661.5 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5651.5 64.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 56.26 -1.36

Gold

AUG ’25 3261.1 -86.8

  • Corn futures are trading higher to start the day with July futures gravitating back to their 100-day moving average. Yesterday’s ethanol report was supportive, and good demand has been a bullish factor in general. There have been 50 deliveries against May corn so far.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 1,500k tons with an average guess of 1,000k. This would compare to 1,153k a week ago and 792k tons a year ago.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released their weekly crop report which showed the country 31.3% complete with the corn harvest. Production estimates for 24/25 were unchanged at 49.0 mmt.

  • Soybeans are trading lower for the third consecutive morning but appear to have found some support at the 100-day moving average. Crude oil prices have continued to fall pressuring soybean oil. There have only been 6 deliveries against May soybeans so far.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 150k and 550k tons with an average guess of 295k. This would compare to 277k last week and 421k tons a year ago.

  • Weaker crude oil prices have begun to pressure soybean oil futures this week, eroding some of the recent strength driven by speculation over a favorable biofuel subsidy and increased demand following tariffs on China’s used cooking oil exports.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC wheat trading higher while Minneapolis is slightly lower. Wheat has been struggling between declining winter wheat crop ratings and the quick planting pace of spring wheat.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 0 and 400k tons with an average guess of 233k tons. This would compare to 227k last week and 387k a year ago.

  • Heavy rainfall is expected across the central and southern U.S. over the next 10 days, with parts of Oklahoma and Texas at risk of flooding that could potentially damage the winter wheat crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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4-30 End of Day: Grains End April Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures posted modest gains Wednesday, recovering from early session lows on strong demand signals.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for a second straight session, pressured by rapid planting and favorable weather forecasts.

  • Wheat: Wheat ended mixed as month-end positioning and global supply outlooks continue to shape trade sentiment.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the U.S. 30-day precipitation rank by climate district as well as the 14-day precipitation forecast for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • No Changes: No active sales targets to report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw some price recovery on Wednesday as the friendly demand tone helped pull prices off early session lows. Old crop contracts led the rebound, supported by solid export and ethanol demand.

  • USDA reported a second consecutive flash export sale of 120,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024–25, highlighting robust export interest.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.040 million barrels per day, translating to 100.9 million bushels of corn use—slightly above the pace needed to meet USDA targets.

  • New corn crop prices were limited by weather forecasts as conditions for the early part of May are favorable for planting pace. The warmer and overall drier forecast should help producers maintain a strong start to the planting of the 2025-26 corn crop.

Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day on continued pressure from a fast planting pace and favorable weather conditions over the next few weeks. Prices have been relatively supported as trade still looks at smaller soybean acres, which could cause a decline in the carryout, especially if China begins buying again.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with soybean oil posting the majority of losses, as crude oil futures slumped by over 2 dollars a barrel. Malaysian palm oil futures were also lower and have posted 4 consecutively lower closes.

  • Argentina soybean harvest may be yielding better than expected. Dr. Cordonnier, crop analyst, has raised his projection for the Argentina soybean crop to 50 MMT, up 1 MMT from his last projection. This is slightly above USDA projections at 49 MMT.

  • Brazilian soybeans continue to undercut U.S. prices. FOB Brazilian beans are 30–50 cents cheaper than U.S. Gulf offerings for May–July, which could further limit U.S. export competitiveness as China maintains its preference for Brazilian supply.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures finished mixed on Tuesday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting modest gains while Kansas City slipped slightly. End-of-month short covering helped lift the market, though KC remains weighed down by improving weather prospects in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. All three classes are technically oversold, and Chicago stochastics are nearing a buy crossover.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s 25/26 wheat crop is expected to reach 20.5 mmt. If realized, this would be the second highest total on record. The next week or so is expected to be net dry for Argentina, which should aid with corn and soybean harvest, as well as wheat planting (which typically begins in May).

  • Australia’s wheat output is forecast by the USDA FAS at 31 MMT for 2025/26, a decline of 3.1 MMT year-over-year due to lower acreage and yields. Exports are projected at 23 MMT, down from 26 MMT.

  • The European Commission reports that EU soft wheat exports have reached 17.5 mmt as of April 27; the season began on July 1. This is down 34% year over year, with 26.6 mmt shipped during the same period a year ago.

  • Northern China’s wheat belt remains under stress, with little rainfall expected in the next 10 days. China’s Water Resources Minister has reportedly issued directives to bolster drought relief efforts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • The 705.50 sales target has been lowered to 701.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • The 667 sales target has been lowered to 657 vs July.

      • Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com