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5-09 Opening Update: Grains Higher to Start the Day Following Weakness Yesterday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 453 5.5
DEC ’25 442.5 3.75
DEC ’26 459.25 2

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1049 4
NOV ’25 1027.25 2.25
NOV ’26 1038.25 2.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 532.5 3.25
SEP ’25 547 3
JUL ’26 603.75 2

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 527 2.25
SEP ’25 540.75 2
JUL ’26 596.5 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 602.75 2
SEP ’25 614.75 2.25
SEP ’26 661.25 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5704.5 20

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 60.81 1.29

Gold

AUG ’25 3363.6 28.9

  • Corn is trading higher this morning and so far has taken back all of yesterday’s losses and then some. Yesterday’s export sales were encouraging and were padded by two separate flash sales.

  • Yesterday, President Trump announced a trade agreement with the UK, part of which would reduce ethanol tariffs on British imports to 0%. This comes before another potential trade deal with China tomorrow.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and trade expects US old crop ending stocks to fall to 1.444 bb which would be down 21 mb from April. This would likely come from an increase in exports.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning ahead of a potential trade deal with China tomorrow. July futures remain rangebound and are sitting right at the 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.

  • Tomorrow, President Trump and President Xi will meet in  Geneva to discuss a potential trade deal, and ahead of this meeting, Trump has floated the idea of cutting tariffs on China from 145% to 80%.

  • On Monday, the WASDE report will be released and trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way following yesterday’s losses and a low of $5.25-1/2 in July.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were better than normal at 562.7k tons. This compared to 310.3k last week and 447.1k a year ago at this time. Top destinations were unknown, South Korea, and Mexico.

  • Estimates for Monday’s WASDE reports see the trade expecting the 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout near 863 million bushels and projects the 2025 wheat crop at 1.885 billion bushels, down from last year’s 1.971 billion.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-8 End of Day: Grains Mixed Following Weekly Export Sales Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets failed to gain upward momentum throughout today’s session and ended with losses, despite a supportive export sales report.

  • Soybeans: Unlike corn and wheat, the soybean market closed higher, supported by a strong performance in soybean oil and a reported sale of U.S. soybeans by the USDA.

  • Wheat: The wheat markets continued their downward trend into the afternoon, ultimately closing lower driven by improved weather conditions across key growing regions.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the day with marginal losses, despite supportive export demand news and some late-session short covering. July corn has now closed lower in five of the past six sessions. For the week, the July contract is down 21 ½ cents heading into Friday’s trade.

  • Managed funds continue to liquidate their long position, pressuring the corn market. The last commitment of traders was estimated funds were long 71,000 contracts of corn. As planting weather has been favorable, and possible bearish projections for the 2025-26 marketing year, funds have continued to liquidate those long positions, pressuring the corn market, especially the July futures.

  • USDA announced weekly export sales for corn on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 1, USDA reported new sales of 1.663 MMT (65.5 mb) for the week. This was up 67% over last week and 47% above the 4-week average. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn again last week. Total export sales are trending ahead of the pace to reach USDA targets for the marketing year and up 27% over last year.

  • USDA announced two flash exports sales of corn on Thursday morning. Mexico purchased 205,000 MT (8.1 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year. Of that total, 40,000 MT was for 2024-25 and 165,000 MT was for 2025-26. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 115,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year.

  • On Monday, USDA will release the next WASDE report. The market will be watching closely for any demand adjustment that could reduce old crop carryout below 1.400 bb. The May report will also give the first projections for the 2025-26 crop year. The combination of extra corn acres and trendline yield could place new crop carryout over the 2.000 bb mark. That total would be a bearish starting point and has pressured the market.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher while corn and wheat were lower thanks to a strong showing in soybean oil. Crude oil rallied by over 3% which supported soybean oil and therefore soybeans despite slightly lower soybean meal. Export sales were in the middle of the road, but there was a flash sale reported as well.

  • Today’s export sales were a bit disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 13.8 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. This was down 12% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. Primary destinations were to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 9.5 mb were below the 11.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • A bright spot for soybean exports today was the announcement of a sale of 225,000 tons of soybeans that were sold to Pakistan for 25/26. This was the largest daily sale to Pakistan since June 2022 and confirms their earlier commitment to buy more cotton and soybeans from the U.S.

  • The demand in the soybean oil market has been providing support to soybean prices.  Weekly soybean oil export sales were strong at 14.6 MT, near the top end of expectations, and new crop sales of 1.1 MT topped expectations. Current total sales for soybean oil in the 2024-25 marketing year total 990.6 MT, up nearly 800% over last year.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market continued its downward trend, closing lower across all three futures classes. Kansas City wheat futures set new contract lows before a slight rebound. The U.S. Dollar Index surged today and is on track to close above its 21-day moving average for the first time since April 1. This put additional pressure on the U.S. wheat complex, compounded by a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 18.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which was under the 23.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb for 24/25. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 700 mb, which is up 12% from last year.

  • Today’s big news was that the U.S. and the UK have reached a trade deal. Grain markets largely shrugged this off, however, as it appears to have a more prominent impact on U.S. beef and ethanol exports to the UK. Nevertheless, this could be the first step towards trade deals with other countries, which in theory should be bullish for ag markets.

  • According to Statistics Canada, their nation’s all wheat stocks were estimated at 15.421 mmt as of March 31. This exceeded expectations of 14.9 mmt but was below the 15.601 mmt figure from a year ago. Furthermore, LSEG is estimating 25/26 Canadian wheat production at 36.5 mmt, which would be 4.5% above last season’s harvest.  

  • The USDA has estimated that approximately 22% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions as of May 6; this is down 1% from the week prior. Spring wheat areas in drought were held steady at 37%. At the same time a year ago an estimated 28% of winter wheat was in drought, while spring wheat was at just 15%.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-8 Midday: Soybeans Remain Higher at Midday; Corn and Wheat Trade Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 443.25 -6
DEC ’25 436.75 -4
DEC ’26 455.5 -3
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1040.75 1.5
NOV ’25 1022.5 0.5
NOV ’26 1032.75 0.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 527.75 -6.5
SEP ’25 542.5 -6.5
JUL ’26 601.25 -6.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 523 -6.5
SEP ’25 537 -6.75
JUL ’26 598.25 -3.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 600 -3
SEP ’25 611.75 -3.25
SEP ’26 655 -6.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5683 31
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 59.28 1.58
Gold
AUG ’25 3392.6 -28.6

  • Corn prices have shifted lower at midday, pressured by favorable weather patterns over the next week to allow planting to progress further.

  • Weekly export sales for corn totaled 66 mb, which was above trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments are now at 2.378 billion bushels, up 27% from last year.

  • Ethanol production for the week ending May 2nd totaled 7.140 million barrels. Ending stocks came in at 25.191 million barrels.

  • Soybean futures remain firm at midday, supported by concerns over the timeline for a potential agreement to be made between US and China.

  • Weekly soybean export sales were in line with expectations at 14 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.753 billion bushels, which is 13% higher than a year ago.

  • LSEG has raised their US soybean production estimate by 1% to 117 mmt. The group cited a 500,000 acre increase and favorable weather conditions for rapid planting progress as the reason for the increase.

  • Wheat prices continue to trend lower at midday, pressured by precipitation chances in the Northwest Plains states next week.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 21 mb, which was above trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 787 mb, up 14% from last year.

  • LSEG raised their all-wheat production forecast for Canada to 36.5 mmt, which if realized would be 4.5% higher than last year’s production total.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-08 Opening Update: Corn Lower, Soybeans and Wheat Higher This Morning

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 449 -0.25
DEC ’25 439 -1.75
DEC ’26 457.75 -0.75

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1045.25 6
NOV ’25 1025.5 3.5
NOV ’26 1035.25 3.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 536 1.75
SEP ’25 550.75 1.75
JUL ’26 610 2

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 531.5 2
SEP ’25 545.5 1.75
JUL ’26 601.75 0.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 605.25 2.25
SEP ’25 617.5 2.5
SEP ’26 661.5 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5699.75 47.75

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 58.79 1.09

Gold

AUG ’25 3377 -44.2

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day after a large bearish reversal yesterday that followed talks of the US and China meeting to discuss a trade deal. Later in the day, it was likely that traders felt doubt a deal would be struck and began selling.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,133k tons. This would compare to 1,259k last week and 938k a year ago at this time.

  • EU corn imports are up 10% year over year, while exports are down 46%. U.S. weather remains mixed — dry in the north and wet across the Delta and Southeast.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning, but are still within their trading range that was formed on April 11. It may take a weather event to break prices out. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 450k tons. This would compare to 478k last week and 434k the prior year.

  • In Monday’s USDA report, the trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning, and July Chicago wheat has slowly been trending higher after making a new contract low on April 30. US soft wheat is now the cheapest in the world.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 0 and 500k tons with an average guess of 317k tons. This would compare to 310k last week and 447k a year ago at this time.

  • For Monday’s USDA report, the trade expects the 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout near 863 million bushels and projects the 2025 wheat crop at 1.885 billion bushels, down from last year’s 1.971 billion.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-7 End of Day: Grains Slide Despite News of U.S./China Upcoming Meeting

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended lower despite strong overnight gains after news of U.S.-China trade talks set for this weekend.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed in bear spreading action, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended lower, with Chicago posting small losses while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw steeper declines.

  • To see the updated soil moisture percentile map and the 14-day GFS precipitation anomaly outlook for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite strong overnight prices in the corn market, the sellers held their grip on the old crop futures, pushing July to its lowest close since December. The selling pressure trickled into new crop prices, finishing the December contract with marginal losses on the session. July corn has traded lower for 4 of the past 5 sessions and nearly 50 cents off the most recent high.

  • Overnight strength came from news of U.S.-China trade talks set for this weekend in Switzerland, sparking short covering. However, futures failed to break resistance and faded through the day session.

  • Ethanol production averaged 1.020 million bpd last week, down 1.9% from the prior week but still 5.9% above last year. Ethanol stocks remain heavy at 25.191 million barrels, while corn use for ethanol totaled 102.91 mb — on pace to meet USDA targets.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The trend in export sales has been supportive of corn prices as accumulated sales are trending well ahead of the USDA totals to reach the marketing year export target. Last week, export sales totaled 1.014 MMT.

  • Weather models remain friendly for possible rapid planting pace. Temperatures across most of the corn belt are expected to be above normal and drier than normal precipitation. If the current pattern holds, some areas will turn significantly dry and may be in need of precipitation to aid early development of the corn crop.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed in bear spreading action, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher. Prices faded from overnight highs after news of planned U.S.-China trade talks. Soybean meal firmed, while soybean oil followed crude lower.

  • Despite progress on U.S.-China talks, trader skepticism over a quick resolution weighed on futures throughout the session. Without a deal before harvest, demand concerns could pressure prices further.

  • Over the next two weeks, the weather is forecast to be warmer and drier than normal in the corn and soy belts. While some areas have received rain over the past few weeks, many already have low soil moisture levels which could become a bigger problem given a drier summer.

  • In Brazil, the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has projected that state’s soybean production at 50.89 mmt. If realized, this would be a 30% jump over 2024 production. This is said to be due to higher estimated acreage and yields. Over the past few years, Mato Grosso has produced nearly one-third of Brazil’s soybeans.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended lower, with Chicago posting small losses while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw steeper declines. Pressure on hard red wheat followed the Oklahoma Wheat Commission’s production forecast of 101.2 mb — marking a second consecutive year above 100 mb. Western Kansas also received beneficial rains, and a firmer U.S. Dollar plus weakness in Matif wheat added to the downside.

  • Early strength was tied to reports that U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland this weekend to discuss trade — a broad boost for the grain complex, though direct benefits may lean more toward soybeans and corn.

  • On a bullish note, the Henan province in China is expected to see a windy weather pattern, along with hot and dry conditions; this province produces about a third of China’s wheat. Drought continues to expand throughout China’s wheat belt, which could mean that they will need to import down the road. Also supportive is the fact that U.S. SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest. Furthermore, U.S. HRW wheat at the Gulf is said to be at a 25-cent discount to Russian wheat.

  • Global turmoil is likely to continue to inject volatility into commodity markets. News outlets have reported that India launched an attack on Pakistan overnight in response to an attack last month on tourists that resulted in 26 deaths. Pakistan also claims to have shot down several Indian jets. This has raised concerns about war brewing between the two nations.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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5-7 Midday: Grains Shift to Mixed Trade at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 452.5 -3
DEC ’25 442.75 1.5
DEC ’26 461 2.5
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1042.75 1.5
NOV ’25 1024.25 5
NOV ’26 1032.5 2
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 535.5 -0.5
SEP ’25 550.25 0.25
JUL ’26 608.25 0.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 531.25 -6.75
SEP ’25 545.75 -5.75
JUL ’26 613.25 6
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 607.5 -3
SEP ’25 619 -2.5
SEP ’26 658.5 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5624.75 -1
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 58.22 -0.46
Gold
AUG ’25 3422 -30.1

  • This morning’s trade announcement that U.S.-China negotiations will resume later this week continues to lift deferred corn contracts at midday, although nearby contracts have edged lower.

  • The latest forecast shows a clear planting window across much of the Midwest over the next seven days, with only limited rainfall expected in parts of Kansas and the Southeast.

  • A key export window for U.S. corn will likely remain open for at least another 45 days, as Ukrainian corn prices continue to trade well above those of U.S. offerings.

  • Ethanol production has slumped to 300 million gallons, down from 306 million the previous week; however. this is still up 5.7% YOY. There were 102 mb of corn used in this production process (or 14.55 mb per day). This is below the 15.06 mb needed to reach the USDA’s forecast of 5.50 bb.

  • Soybeans continue to show strength in midday trade, supported by overnight reports that the U.S. Treasury Secretary and U.S. Trade Representative will meet with a Chinese delegation later this week to begin trade negotiations. Soybeans and soybean meal are posting higher at midday, while soybean oil is trading mixed.

  • Soybean prices in Brazil and Argentina are now well below U.S. levels, contributing to a slowdown in U.S. export activity.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest is expected to reach a record of 169 mmt or 6.21 bb, according to a report from consultant Michael Cordonnier. He also added that even though Argentina’s bean harvest has been delayed, yields are better than expected.

  • Brazilian farmers are expected to expand the soybean planted area by approximately 500,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season, which begins in September for key growing regions.

  • Wheat futures have turned mixed at midday, showing little reaction to the China trade news, as favorable weather conditions continue to erase the previously built-in weather premium.

  • Showers are moving across western Kansas this morning, with additional rainfall expected across the state over the next week. Meanwhile, Texas and Oklahoma are forecast to remain dry, allowing fields in those areas to finally dry out.

  • Crop stress remains a concern for wheat in China, as drought conditions persist across one-third of the country’s wheat-growing regions.

  • U.S. wheat continues to gain competitiveness in the global market, with Gulf hard red winter wheat now priced at a 25-cent discount compared to Russian wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-07 Opening Update: Grains Rally on News of US/China Trade Talks

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 462.25 6.75
DEC ’25 446.75 5.5
DEC ’26 462.5 4

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1052.75 11.5
NOV ’25 1030.5 11.25
NOV ’26 1038.25 7.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 542.5 6.5
SEP ’25 556.75 6.75
JUL ’26 614.25 6.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 541.75 3.75
SEP ’25 556 4.5
JUL ’26 613.25 6

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 613.25 2.75
SEP ’25 625.25 3.75
SEP ’26 658.5 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5664.75 39

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 59.19 0.51

Gold

AUG ’25 3423.1 -29

  • Talk of improved U.S.-China relations is supporting futures. Traders expect the 2024/25 U.S. corn carryout near 1,443 million bushels vs the USDA’s 1,465, and project the 2025/26 carryout at 2,020 million bushels. Expectations for the 2025 U.S. corn crop are around 15.76 billion bushels, compared to 14.87 billion last year.

  • U.S. export corn prices are competitive at about $210/MT, compared to Ukraine at $250, Argentina at $212, and Ukraine September prices also near $210.

  • EU corn imports are up 10% year over year, while exports are down 46%. U.S. weather remains mixed — dry in the north and wet across the Delta and Southeast.

  • Soybeans are reacting to news of U.S./China talks.  Dalian soybean, soymeal, and soyoil futures were higher, while palm oil moved lower on seasonal production increases and softer exports.

  • The trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. For 2024/25, U.S. exports will be key. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion.

  • EU oilseed imports are up 8% year over year, meal imports are up 11%, while vegetable oil imports are down 24%.

  • July is trading near 5.43 and back-testing 200-day moving average resistance.

  • The trade expects the 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout near 863 million bushels and projects the 2025 wheat crop at 1.885 billion bushels, down from last year’s 1.971 billion. The Oklahoma crop tour estimated the 2025 crop at 101 million bushels, versus 108 million last year.

  • There is talk that China purchased Canadian wheat, possibly due to opportunistic buying or concerns about dry weather in China. Meanwhile, some believe funds and commercials may be too bearish on wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-6 End of Day: Grains Trade Mixed as Spring Planting Progresses

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended the day mixed, with nearby contracts holding steady while deferred months faced pressure from favorable weather conditions that are accelerating planting progress across key growing regions.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower for the second consecutive session, pressured by a better-than-expected crop progress report showing spring planting running well ahead of the five-year average.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures posted gains at the close, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and favorable weather conditions boosting crop development.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal and accumulated rainfall map for the U.S. and the 7-day rainfall outlook U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished with mixed trade as stability returned to old crop futures with a strong demand tone, while deferred contracts remained under pressure due to favorable weather supporting a solid planting pace for this year’s crop.

  • The USDA released the latest crop progress report on Monday afternoon. As of May 4, the USDA estimated that 40% of this year’s corn crop was planted, up 16% over last week. This was 1% below expectations, but 1% ahead of 5-year average.  Key corn producing state, Illinois, was the biggest laggard on the totals with 32% of the crop plants, down 12% from the 5-year average.

  • Weather models remain friendly for possible rapid planting pace. Temperatures across most of the corn belt are expected to be above normal and drier than normal precipitation. The prospects of strong planting pace limited new crop corn futures.

  • Strong demand tone will support old crop corn futures as export demand and ethanol demand are trending above USDA market year projections. The recent weakness in prices will likely limit cash marketing, and basis levels will likely firm to promote additional cash sales.

  • Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.

Corn Sandwiched Between Support and Resistance
Corn futures staged a breakout in April after repeatedly defending key support near 450 throughout March. A bullish April WASDE report — driven by stronger-than-expected demand — lit the spark, propelling prices through the 50-day moving average and igniting renewed bullish momentum. As the market enters May, traders are focused on two key drivers: weather outlooks across the Corn Belt and ongoing demand signals. The February highs just above 510 now stand as the next upside target. However, early May weakness has cracked support near 470, leaving the door open for a retest of the familiar 450 level — the early 2025 low — as the next key floor.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • NEW: Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day following the crop progress report that showed planting pace well above the 5-year average amid generally good weather that has been conducive to planting. Soybean meal was lower to end the day along with soybean oil despite a rally in crude oil.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that the soybean crop is 30% planted, which compares to 18% last week and the 5-year average of 23%. The pace was slightly below the average trade guess of 31%. 7% of the crop has emerged which compares to the average of 5%. Planting is ahead of the average pace in every state except for Illinois where it is 1 point behind the average.

  • In Brazil, the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has projected that state’s soybean production at 50.89 mmt. If realized, this would be a 30% jump over 2024 production. This is said to be due to higher estimated acreage and yields. Over the past few years, Mato Grosso has produced nearly one-third of Brazil’s soybeans. 

  • Both old and new crop soybean futures have technical support around their respective 40 and 50 day moving averages. However, if they break this support, momentum would point to more downside and a potential re-test of the April lows.

Soybean Futures Hold Above Key Support
Soybean futures plunged in early April as news of fresh tariffs sent prices tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 level — a floor that had held firm throughout March. The break triggered a wave of technical selling, but the dip was short-lived. Aggressive buying interest quickly emerged, sparking a sharp rebound that not only reclaimed the 1000 level but also vaulted futures back above key moving averages. Notably, the 200-day moving average — a persistent ceiling for nearly two years — was decisively overtaken. With momentum building, the market is now setting its sights on a potential retest of the February highs near 1080, while the reclaimed 200-day average is poised to serve as a strong layer of support during any spring setbacks.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat put some green on the board today, with a higher close in all three classes. Support came from a drop in the U.S. Dollar, a higher close for Matif wheat futures, and a technical bounce as U.S. wheat remains oversold and funds are record short.  

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report from the USDA indicated that winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week, to 51% good to excellent; 39% of the crops are headed compared to 41% last year and 33% average. Additionally, 44% of the spring wheat crop is planted, versus 45% a year ago and 34% average. An estimated 13% of spring wheat has emerged, which is ahead of the 11% pace last year and 9% on average.

  • East-central China is seeing heat and dryness that could affect their wheat production. Additionally, freezing temperatures could impact winter wheat in northeast Europe and the Baltics. However, these weather issues may be somewhat counterbalanced by better rains expected for parts of Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

  • IKAR has increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production from 82.5 mmt to 83.8 mmt. In addition, they also increased their Russian wheat export forecast from 40 mmt to 41.3 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Sales target has been lowered. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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5-6 Midday: Grains Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 456 1.75
DEC ’25 441.75 -1.25
DEC ’26 459.5 -1
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1040 -5.5
NOV ’25 1020 -2.25
NOV ’26 1031.75 -0.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 538 6.75
SEP ’25 551.75 6
JUL ’26 608.25 4.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 538 5.25
SEP ’25 552 4.75
JUL ’26 608 3.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 610 0.5
SEP ’25 621.25 0.5
SEP ’26 662 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5649.5 -22.25
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 59.15 2.4
Gold
AUG ’25 3431.9 80.8

  • Corn continues to trade mixed at midday. Planting progress is adding pressure to deferred contracts while the two front month contracts are up slightly after yesterday’s down day.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed corn planting at 40% complete which compares to 24% last week and the 5-year average of 39%.

  • Agriculture group Celeres raised their total corn production outlook for Brazil from 134.6 mmt to 135.4 mmt. This compares to 129.2 mmt produced during the 2023/24 season.

  • Soybean futures remain weaker at midday, pressured by planting progress and favorable weather conditions.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 30% complete, which compares to 18% last week and the 5-year average of 23%.

  • Brazil’s soybean premiums have now fallen below US prices which now raises concerns that there could be a lack of demand for US soybeans.

  • Wheat is trending higher at midday, supported by weather concerns in Texas and Oklahoma which are expected to see more rainfall than is needed.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat ratings improved 2% from last week to 51% good-to-excellent. Spring wheat planting jumped 14% from last week to 44% complete but is 10% above the 5-year average at this time.

  • Russia’s IKAR has raised their wheat production forecast to 83.8 mmt, up from their earlier estimate of 82.5 mmt. IKAR also raised their Russian wheat export estimate to 41.3 mmt, up from their previous estimate of 40 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-06 Opening Update: Grains Mixed Following Crop Progress Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 456.5 2.25
DEC ’25 443.25 0.25
DEC ’26 460.25 -0.25

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1044 -1.5
NOV ’25 1020 -2.25
NOV ’26 1032.75 0.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 534.75 3.5
SEP ’25 549 3.25
JUL ’26 605.5 1.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 533.5 0.75
SEP ’25 547.75 0.5
JUL ’26 604.25 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 607 -2.5
SEP ’25 618.25 -2.5
SEP ’26 662 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5637.25 -34.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 57.98 1.23

Gold

AUG ’25 3418.5 67.4

  • Corn is mixed to start the day with the two front months trading higher while the deferred contracts trade lower. Yesterday, prices were pressured by falling crude oil values, and July corn posted the lowest close since December 2024.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that the corn crop is now 40% planted which compares to 24% last week and the 5-year average of 39%. 11% of the crop is emerged which is on par with a year ago at this time.

  • The US inspected 1,608k tons of corn for export last week which compared to 1,666k tons the previous week and 1,299k a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning following yesterday’s move lower on falling crude and soybean oil. July futures are now at support at the 100-day moving average and have not broken out of their trading range. Soybean meal is higher while bean oil is lower.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that the soybean crop is 30% planted which compares to 18% last week and the 5-year average of 23%. 7% of the crop is emerged which compares the the average of 5%.

  • The US inspected 324k tons of soybeans for export last week which compared to 458k the previous week and 358k a year ago at this time. Top destinations were Mexico, China, and Japan.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC wheat trading higher while Minneapolis is slightly lower. Winter wheat crop conditions were improved in yesterday’s report which is likely adding pressure.

  • 44% of the spring wheat crop is planted which was below the average trade guess and compared to 30% a week ago. 13% of the crop is emerged which compares to the average of 9% at this time. Winter wheat conditions improved to 51% from 49% a week ago, and were also above the average trade guess.

  • The US inspected 310k tons of wheat for export last week which compared to 649k the previous week and 339k a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.