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5-19 End of Day: Grains Rebound to Start the Week: Corn Recovers, Soybeans Firm, Spring Wheat Surges on Frost Risk

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures rebounded off early session lows Monday as bargain buying and continued strong export demand helped erase most of Friday’s losses.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Monday in a quiet session, with new crop contracts leading gains.

  • 🌾 Wheat: U.S. wheat futures closed higher across all classes Monday, led by double-digit gains in Minneapolis spring wheat. Reports of frost in the Northern Plains over the weekend, with more cold in the forecast, helped support spring wheat.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers stepped into the corn market, lifting prices off early session lows as value buying and continued strong demand story brought support to the corn market, erasing most of Friday’s losses.

  • USDA’s weekly export inspections showed 1.719 MMT (67.7 mb) of corn shipped for the week ending May 12 — near the top of analyst expectations. Total shipments are now 29% ahead of last year and tracking roughly 150 mb above the pace needed to hit USDA’s 2024–25 export forecast.

  • Managed money has moved into a short position in the corn market as favorable weather, and prospects on a large Brazil corn crop have pressured the market. In last week’s commitment of traders’ report, funds were net sellers of nearly 100,000 corn contracts and held a net short position of 84,976 corn contracts. With additional selling pressure into the end of the week, the estimate reflects that the funds are approximately net short 100,000 contracts going into today’s session.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to show corn planting nearing 80% complete. Illinois — a key producer — lagged 6% behind the five-year average last week. Continued delays there could spark yield concerns and weigh on national production expectations.

Corn Futures Slide Back Toward 2024 Lows as Support Levels Erode
Corn futures bounced in April off the key $4.50 level, boosted by a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average. But May brought selling pressure, as strong planting progress and demand worries dragged prices back below $4.70. The $4.45–$4.50 zone has again held firm, but with momentum weakening, traders are watching to see if this critical support can withstand further pressure.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 98,869 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 84,976 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B 1016.75 stop price has been adjusted higher to 1018.50.

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day in relatively quiet trade that saw new crop contracts posting the larger gains. Futures once again found support at the 100 and 200-day moving averages which have converged and are providing support. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil led soybeans higher.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 145,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during marketing year 2024/2025. Export sales have been slow overall for soybeans, but India and other countries are reportedly looking to discuss trade deals with the U.S.which could boost demand.

  • Today’s export inspections were below analyst expectations for soybeans with inspections totaling 8.0 million bushels for the week ending May 15. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.622 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total exports for 24/25 up 8% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of May 13 by 16,537 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,407 contracts. They were buyers of bean oil by 10,694 contracts and buyers of meal by 712 contracts.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 16,537 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net long 38,407 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • U.S. wheat futures closed higher across all classes Monday, led by double-digit gains in Minneapolis spring wheat. Reports of frost in the Northern Plains over the weekend, with more cold in the forecast, helped support spring wheat. A weaker U.S. Dollar—pressured by Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating—also boosted commodity prices.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 15.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 761 mb, which is up 16% from last year. Inspections are running slightly ahead of the USDA’s estimates – they are projecting 24/25 exports at 800 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • According to their customs data, China’s wheat imports have fallen 61.2% year over year, to 760,000 mt. Corn and soybean imports are also down sharply. However, wheat growing regions in central China are under stress due to dry conditions. This could mean they will need to increase their wheat imports down the road, which would be bullish.  

  • LSEG ag research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 794.99 mmt, which would be down 0.3% from last season if realized. Despite the expectation for declines to the wheat crop in the US, Black Sea region, Australia, and Kazakhstan, this may be largely offset by gains in India, Canada, and Europe. Even China is expected by LSEG to have a bigger crop, in spite of current weather issues.

  • Over the weekend, severe flooding in Argentina caused evacuations in the northern part of the Buenos Aires province. Rainfall totals were reported between 6-10 inches or more in a very short period of time. This flooding may cause delays to soybean harvest, as well as planting of their wheat crop.

  • The German national statistics agency has projected that their nation’s winter wheat planted area is up 12.2% from a year ago, to 2.78 million hectares. This is down 0.1% from their December estimate. Germany is the second biggest wheat producer in the EU, with France being number one.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,161 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 126,895 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,393 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 27,519 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-19 Midday: Corn and Wheat Futures Bounce from Recent Lows Monday Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 445.75 2.25
DEC ’25 438.5 3
DEC ’26 457 2.25
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1051.5 1.5
NOV ’25 1038.75 3.25
NOV ’26 1039 1.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 529.25 4.25
SEP ’25 543.25 4.25
JUL ’26 603.25 3.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 524.25 7.75
SEP ’25 538 7.5
JUL ’26 601.5 9.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 582.25 9
SEP ’25 595.75 8.5
SEP ’26 654 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5958.25 -17.25
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 62.08 0.11
Gold
AUG ’25 3263.5 49

  • Corn futures are trading higher at midday as the market tries to stabilize near recent lows.

  • U.S.-China trade talks are reportedly progressing, though China’s corn imports remain underwhelming. Year-to-date imports total just 440,000 metric tons — down 95% from the same period last year, according to customs data.

  • Rainfall is moving through many of the driest areas of the western Corn Belt this week, with cooler-than-normal temperatures expected to follow. The forecast remains broadly supportive of early crop development across the Midwest.

  • Soybeans are slightly higher to begin the week as the market waits for developments on trade talks and EPA biofuel policy.

  •  On Monday morning, USDA reported a private export sale of 145,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for 2024/2025 delivery.

  • In Argentina, heavy weekend rains dropped 6 to 10 inches in key soybean regions, causing flooding and raising concerns about potential quality issues for roughly half of the unharvested crop.

  • Wheat futures are rebounding Monday after hitting fresh contract lows last week.

  • Last week’s pressure came in part from the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour, which reported a bearish yield estimate of 53.7 bushels per acre — the second highest on record.

  • Managed money funds have continued to pile onto the short side, pushing combined net short positions in Chicago and KC wheat to a record 204,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-19 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Begin the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 447 3.5
DEC ’25 437.25 1.75
DEC ’26 456 1.25

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1054.75 4.75
NOV ’25 1039.25 3.75
NOV ’26 1039.5 1.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 529.75 4.75
SEP ’25 543.5 4.5
JUL ’26 602.75 2.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 522.75 6.25
SEP ’25 536.75 6.25
JUL ’26 591.75 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 576.75 3.5
SEP ’25 590.5 3.25
SEP ’26 654 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5911.25 -64.25

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 61.17 -0.8

Gold

AUG ’25 3274.4 59.9

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after Friday’s small sell-off. This morning, prices are supported by a decline in the US dollar, and poor weather in Argentina that likely damaged grain.

  • In the northern region of Buenos Aires, Argentina, thousands of residents were evacuated over the weekend as a result of severe flooding. This area is an agricultural hub, and unharvested acres and some grain facilities were likely impacted.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as major sellers of corn. They sold a whopping 98,869 contracts as of May 13 which brought them from a long position to a net short position of 84,976 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex in slightly more positive momentum this week. Futures are still hovering above their major moving averages which have acted as support. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.

  • In Brazil, productivity with the current soybean crop has been good which has kept supply high and has also caused prices to fall, especially as is seems further trade negotiations between the US and China are incoming.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of May 13 by 16,537 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,407 contracts. They were buyers of bean oil by 10,694 contracts and buyers of meal by 712 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with the biggest bullish factor most likely the decline in the US dollar. Moody downgraded the US credit rating which has negatively impacted stocks and the dollar.

  • In Ukraine, the 2025 spring grain sowing is now at 87% complete with 4.95 million hectares planted. This compares to 5.1 million sown last year. 215,200 hectares is spring wheat, the majority is barley.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 13,161 contracts which left them with a net short position of 126,895 contracts. They sold 8,559 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 80,799 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-16 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Slip, Soybeans Mixed to End the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Selling pressure returned to the corn market on Friday, capping off a fifth consecutive negative week for July futures.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week mixed, with front-month contracts slightly lower while new crop contracts posted gains in bear spreading action.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker Paris milling wheat futures.

  • To see the updated 7-day National Blend of Models precipitation forecast in inches as well as the 5–10-day GEFS temperature anomalies for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure returned to the corn market on Friday, capping off a negative week. December corn posted a new low in the current price move, while July corn reversed lower after once again failing to hold above the 450 level. The weak technical close leaves the door open for additional selling pressure to start next week. For the week, July corn ended 6 ¼ cents lower, marking the fifth consecutive weekly loss.

  • Renewed discussions of a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict weighed on both corn and wheat futures. Speculation around a possible ceasefire raised concerns about increased grain exports and competition from the Black Sea region.

  • Some beneficial rainfall fell over the northern parts of the Corn Belt on Thursday. Amounts and coverage in some areas was disappointing, but rainfall is forecasted again into the weekend. That potential rainfall and cooler temperatures pressured the corn market.

  • Rumors of a reduced renewable fuel blending mandate added longer-term demand concerns for corn-based ethanol. While the market had been expecting 2026 blending levels near 5.275 billion gallons, reports now suggest a possible reduction to 4.650 billion gallons. Although still above last year’s levels, the number falls short of trade expectations and has pressured futures.

  • June corn options expired on Friday, introducing additional volatility. Expiration tends to steer prices toward areas of heavy open interest and can trigger either buying or selling depending on price action relative to strike levels.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B 1016.75 stop price has been adjusted higher to 1018.50.

      • Thinking sub-1000 vs November to potentially begin legging out of recently recommended 1040 January put options. More details to come once an official target is posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the week with the front months slightly lower and new crop contracts ending higher in bear spreading action. July soybeans found support after yesterday’s sharp sell-off at the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which have converged at $10.47. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower.

  • Soybean oil has been the downside leader in the soy complex over the past two sessions. Pressure stemmed from comments by EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, who confirmed that the agency will begin a new rulemaking process over the coming months to revise renewable volume obligations (RVOs). The delay has sparked concern that final biofuel mandates could come in below the expected 4.6 billion gallons, though that remains speculative.

  • NOPA soybean crush for the month of April was shown at 190.226 million bushels, which was down 2.2% from March at 194.51 mb but was above trade estimates. Crush was well above last year at this time of 169.43 mb in April.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 1-3/4 cents at $10.50 while November soybeans gained 5 cents to $10.35-1/2. July soybean meal lost $2.20 to $291.90 and July soybean oil actually gained 0.36 cents to finish the week at 48.93 cents.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker Paris milling wheat (Matif) futures. Sentiment was also influenced by reports of potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Ukrainian President Zelensky told President Trump he was prepared to take swift steps toward peace, as negotiations continue in Turkey. A resolution could eventually boost wheat production and exports from the Black Sea region, applying additional pressure to global prices.

  • Yesterday the wheat crop tour in Kansas concluded, with the Wheat Quality Council finding a final average yield of 53 bpa, which compares to the USDA’s estimate of 50 bpa, and is the highest since 2021. However, they also estimated total production at 338.5 mb versus the USDA at 345 mb. This would seem to suggest that they are expecting a lower amount of harvested acreage.

  • According to the USDA, as of May 13, an estimated 23% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, which is up 1% from the previous week and down 2% from the same time last year. Spring wheat area in drought also increased by 1% from a week ago to 38%. This is far above last year’s 14% drought reading. But with rains in the northern Plains, spring wheat drought conditions may ease next in next week’s estimate.

  • FranceAgriMer has estimated 73% of the French soft wheat crop is in good or very good condition as of May 12. This is down slightly from a week ago, but according to the USDA, areas of northern Europe are too dry – more rain will be needed for development of winter crops.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target was lowered to 675.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast

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5-16 Midday: Soybeans Remain Higher at Midday, Corn and Wheat Drift Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 444.75 -3.75
DEC ’25 435.75 -3
DEC ’26 455.5 -2.5
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1051.75 0.5
NOV ’25 1038 2.75
NOV ’26 1039.5 0.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 525.25 -7.5
SEP ’25 539.25 -7.25
JUL ’26 599.5 -5.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 518 -10.25
SEP ’25 532.5 -9.5
JUL ’26 593.75 -7
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 574.25 -5.75
SEP ’25 588.25 -4.75
SEP ’26 658.25 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5941.25 8
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 61.65 0.5
Gold
AUG ’25 3208.5 -45.6

  • Corn prices are drifting lower at midday, pressured by rains in the forecast for much of next week across the Midwest.

  • Despite the needed rainfall next week, the overall weather outllook for June-August leans warm and dry according to the NOAA.

  • Conab raised their corn production estimate in Brazil by 2.2 mmt to 126.9 mmt for the 24/25 season.

  • French corn is now seen at 90% complete, which is well ahead of last year’s 70% finished at this time.

  • Soybeans continue to trade higher at midday, supported by drought conditions across the US soybean area. Drought conditions jumped 2% from last week to 17%, this compares to 9% of the US soybean area seeing drought conditions last year.

  • BAGE reported that Argentine’s soybean harvest improved 20% last week and now sits at 65% complete.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush was larger than anticipated at 190.226 mb and was the highest on record for the month of April.

  • Wheat remains weaker at midday, pressured by beneficial rains scheduled for next week and better production prospects for Kansas.

  • Estimated wheat yields in Kansas are 53 bpa, according to scouts on the Wheat Quality Council tour. Currently that estimate if realized would be the highest yield for the state since 2021.

  • About 73% of the French soft wheat crop is rated as good or very good according to FranceAgriMer.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

5-16 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Trading Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 449.25 0.75
DEC ’25 439.25 0.5
DEC ’26 457.5 -0.5

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1053 1.75
NOV ’25 1035.75 0.5
NOV ’26 1038.75 0

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 531 -1.75
SEP ’25 544.75 -1.75
JUL ’26 604 -1

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 527.75 -0.5
SEP ’25 541.75 -0.25
JUL ’26 600.75 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 580.75 0.75
SEP ’25 593.75 0.75
SEP ’26 658.25 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5950.5 17.25

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 61.35 0.2

Gold

AUG ’25 3204.8 -49.3

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after bull spreading action yesterday that saw the front month higher and deferred contracts lower. For example, July futures are currently unchanged on the week while December futures are down nearly three cents.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was supportive for corn with better than expected sales. Corn sales increased to 2,186k tons which compared to 1,681k the previous week and 870k a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.

  • Weather has been a bearish factor lately with rain in the Corn Belt expected over the next 7 days, but the 30 day forecast for the Western Belt is much drier and could be an issue.

  • Soybeans are trading higher to start the day after a sharp sell off yesterday driven by soybean oil. Soybean oil is lower again this morning on the same bearish news and meal is lower as well.

  • Yesterday The EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin, confirmed the agency will complete a rulemaking process to set new renewable fuel standards. The renewable volume obligations numbers were supposed to be released soon, not in a few months, and this has caused fears that the obligations numbers will be lower than previously hoped.

  • Yesterday’s export sales for soybeans were within expectations at 773k tons which compared to 387k the previous week and 290k a year ago. Top buyers were Pakistan, Mexico, and Egypt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning, but the trend this week has been lower prices overnight followed by higher closes. For the week, July Chicago futures are set to gain around 11 cents after making a new contract low earlier this week.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were better than expected for wheat at 805k tons which compared to 563k last week and 383k a year ago at this time. Top buyers were unknown, the Philippines, and Mexico.

  • In Ukraine, the 2025 spring grain sowing is now at 87% complete with 4.95 million hectares planted. This compares to 5.1 million sown last year. 215,200 hectares is spring wheat, the majority is barley.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-15 End of Day: Soybeans Slammed Lower on RFS Headline; Corn Ends Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mixed on the day. Strong weekly export sales supported old crop contracts, but overall gains were limited by concerns over biofuel demand and favorable weather forecasts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, driven by a limit-down move in soybean oil. The pressure came from bearish news tied to the Renewable Fuel Standard and renewable volume obligations.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended higher across all three classes today, showing relative strength despite heavy pressure in the soy complex.

  • To see the updated drought monitor and the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could be added within the next few trading days. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished mixed on the day. Strong weekly export sales supported old crop contracts, but overall gains were limited by concerns over biofuel demand and favorable weather forecasts.

  • The USDA released its weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 8, new sales totaled 1.677 million metric tons (66 million bushels) for old crop and 509,000 metric tons (20 million bushels) for new crop. Old crop sales exceeded analysts’ expectations, with South Korea emerging as the largest buyer last week.

  • An announcement from the EPA on Thursday added pressure to the grain markets. Instead of a near-term update on blending volumes, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that the agency will complete a new rulemaking process “over the next few months.” The delay disappointed traders hoping for clarity on Renewable Fuel Standard volumes and triggered a limit-down move in soybean oil. The spillover weighed on new crop corn futures, reflecting concerns about long-term ethanol demand.

  • Planting conditions across the U.S. remain favorable, with most areas seeing an open window for fieldwork. Forecasts show increasing chances for beneficial precipitation across key growing regions next week, supporting early crop development and helping cap market rallies.

  • Mexico remains the largest buyer of U.S. corn on the export market. Current weather and drought conditions there could become a quiet but supportive factor for U.S. corn. Mexico’s primary planting window runs from April through August, accounting for about 70% of its total production. Drought in key growing areas could reduce yields, potentially boosting U.S. corn exports next winter.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None. Thinking sub-1000 vs November to potentially begin legging out of recently recommended 1040 January put options. More details to come once an official target is posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower due to a limit down move in soybean oil, and July soybeans gave up all of their gains from earlier this week. While soybean export sales were within expectations, the bearish news concerning soybean oil was an announcement last night regarding Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations.

  • On Wednesday evening, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin confirmed that the agency will initiate a new rulemaking process over the coming months to set updated volume obligations. Traders are concerned the delay could signal lower-than-expected biofuel mandates, potentially below the anticipated 4.6 billion gallons, though this remains speculative.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales with an increase of 10.4 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 18.0 mb for 25/26. Top destinations were to Egypt, Indonesia, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 15.8 mb were below the 33.4 mb needed each week to mee the USDA’s export estimates.

  • Projections for the U.S. soybean crush in April average 183.8 million bushels. This compares to 194.6 million bushels in March and 169.5 million bushels in April of last year.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended higher across all three classes today, showing relative strength despite heavy pressure in the soy complex. Soybean oil closed down its three-cent limit, and soybean futures lost 25 to 27 cents on the day. Support for U.S. wheat may be coming from the upward trend in Paris milling wheat futures, though domestic strength appears largely driven by continued technical buying and short covering, as fresh fundamental news remains limited.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.2 million bushels (mb) in wheat export sales for 2024/25 and 27.4 mb for 2025/26. Shipments last week totaled 13.6 mb, falling short of the 15.3 mb weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s 2024/25 export goal of 820 mb. However, total sales commitments for 2024/25 now stand at 798 mb, up 14% from a year ago.

  • On day two of the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour, scouts estimated an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre (bpa), 2.8 bpa above day one and well above last year’s 42.4 bpa. While there is some concern about wheat curl mite and related disease, impacts appear limited at this point in the season.

  • Brazil’s CONAB released updated crop estimates, trimming its wheat production forecast slightly by 0.22 million metric tons (mmt) to 8.25 mmt. For comparison, the USDA currently projects Brazilian wheat output at 8.0 mmt.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina is estimating their 25/26 wheat crop at 21 mmt. If realized, this would be an increase from the 20.1 mmt harvested in 24/25. Wheat planting is just getting started there, but the RGE is anticipating a planted area of 7.2 million hectares which would be the largest in 15 years.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target was lowered to 675.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-15 Midday: Soybeans Sharply Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 446.25 0.75
DEC ’25 437.25 -3.25
DEC ’26 457 -2.5
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1050 -27.75
NOV ’25 1037 -24.25
NOV ’26 1043 -16
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 528.25 3.5
SEP ’25 542.5 3.5
JUL ’26 604.25 6.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 523.25 0.25
SEP ’25 537.5 0.5
JUL ’26 597.25 1
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 577 0
SEP ’25 590.75 0
SEP ’26 657.75 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5915.75 7.25
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 60.75 -1.93
Gold
AUG ’25 3243.1 27.1

  • Corn futures are mixed at midday with old crop higher while new crop contracts are lower.

  • Corn futures have fallen to their lowest levels since November this week, pressured by rapid planting progress and favorable early-season weather across key U.S. growing regions.

  • U.S. corn export sales for the week ending May 8 totaled 66 million bushels (mb) for the 2024-25 marketing year and 20 mb for 2025-26. Shipments reached 55.6 mb, surpassing the 46.8 mb weekly pace needed to meet the USDA’s target of 2.6 billion bushels (bb).

  • Soybean futures are sharply lower at midday, following a steep drop in soybean oil futures, which are limit down.

  • Energy markets are under pressure after overnight reports suggested that Iran may be willing to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions in exchange for the immediate lifting of sanctions — raising concerns about a potential surge in crude oil supply hitting the market.

  • In trade news, India has reportedly expressed willingness to eliminate all tariffs on U.S. goods as a bilateral trade agreement between the two nations moves closer to completion.

  • Wheat futures are slightly higher at midday, continuing to rebound from oversold conditions and firming off recent lows as the market corrects.

  • On day two of the Wheat Quality Council Tour in Kansas, scouts surveyed 211 fields between Colby and Wichita, reporting an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre (bpa). That’s 2.8 bpa higher than day one and about 10 bpa above last year’s estimate, reflecting improved crop conditions in the region.

  • Northern Europe looks to be dry for the next two weeks and same story for China’s primary wheat areas, where drought has expanded.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

5-15 Opening Update: Grains Lower Led by Sharp Decline in Soybean Oil

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 444.5 -1
DEC ’25 439 -1.5
DEC ’26 458 -1.5

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1062 -15.75
NOV ’25 1048 -13.25
NOV ’26 1050.5 -8.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 522.5 -2.25
SEP ’25 537.25 -1.75
JUL ’26 597.25 -0.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 521.5 -1.5
SEP ’25 535.75 -1.25
JUL ’26 600 3.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 574.75 -2.25
SEP ’25 588.5 -2.25
SEP ’26 657.75 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5882.75 -25.75

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 60.42 -2.26

Gold

AUG ’25 3207.2 -8.8

  • Corn is trading lower this morning but is off it’s recent low of the year at $4.36-1/2. Yesterday, futures were able to come off their lows for a higher close, and this morning, they are likely pressured by lower soybean and bean oil.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,200 and 2,100k tons with an average guess of 1,575k tons. This would compare to 1,681k last week and 870k a year ago at this time.

  • Yesterday’s ethanol production data was disappointing with only 993,000 gallons per day reported by the EIA, the average guess was 1.031m. Stocks rose by 1% to 25.445m bbl which compared to the analyst estimate of 25.067m.

  • Soybeans are sharply lower to start the day as a result of limit down soybean oil. The EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin, confirmed the agency will complete a rulemaking process to set new renewable fuel standards which has shaken up the market. The renewable volume obligations numbers were supposed to be released soon, not in a few months.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 950k tons with an average guess of 667k. This would compare to 386k last week and 291k tons a year ago.

  • Projections for the US April soybean crush see an average of 183.8 million bushels. This would compare to 194.6 mb in March but 169.5 mb a year ago at this time.

  • All three wheat classes are trading only slightly lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. Slowly, futures have been managing to climb off Tuesday’s contract lows with prices seemingly too cheap compared to corn.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 150k and 700k tons with an average guess of 469k tons. This would compare to 563k last week and 383k tons a year ago at this time.

  •  Persistent fund selling continues to pressure the market which has been driven by recent rainfall across key winter wheat regions and rapid spring wheat planting progress in the Northern Plains.

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5-14 End of Day: Wheat Recovery Continues, Corn and Soybeans Close Mostly Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed on Wednesday with old crop contracts slightly higher and new crop contracts fractionally lower.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher Wednesday on bull-spreading activity, with nearby contracts gaining on new crop months.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Kansas City wheat futures posted double-digit gains today, with Chicago futures not far behind, as the technical rebound continues.

  • To see the updated 7-day QPF rainfall forecast for the U.S., the 5-10 day temperature anomaly map and the subsoil moisture map for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could be added within the next few trading days. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw reduced downward momentum on Wednesday as May contracts expired. Light buying interest emerged in the old crop market, supported by solid demand. May corn futures finished trading on Wednesday, settling at $4.38½.

  • The USDA will release its weekly Export Sales report Thursday morning. For the week ending May 8, new corn sales for the 2024-25 marketing year are expected to range between 1.2 and 2.1 million metric tons (MMT). Last week’s sales totaled 1.6805 MMT, reflecting continued strength in old crop demand.

  • In weekly ethanol production, total production slipped to 292 million barrels/day, down 8 mbpd from last week and down 1% from last year. This total was below expectations and the lowest production in the past 53 weeks. Total corn used last week was estimated at 99 mb, which was slightly below the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • Planting conditions remain favorable, with most areas enjoying an open window to complete fieldwork. Heading into the weekend, forecasts show improved chances of beneficial precipitation across key growing regions. While supportive for early crop development, this may limit near-term rallies in the corn market.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in bull spreading action with the front months gaining on the new crop contracts. Futures continued to break out of their recent trading range as traders focus on smaller acres and a potentially very small ending stocks number. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • U.S. soybean exports could decline by up to 20% without a trade agreement with China, according to AgResource. Although tariffs have been significantly reduced, they remain higher than pre-trade war levels. Meanwhile, Brazilian President Lula has stated he is not concerned about potential U.S. retaliation over Brazil’s strengthening ties with China.

  • In Brazil, one of the largest grain producers, SLC Agrícola SA, is expected to increase its planted acreage in 25/26 by nearly 14% starting in July. The company has expanded by acquiring smaller farms and grows corn, soybeans, and cotton.

  • China is expected to reduce its soybean imports in 25/26 in order to cut use of soybean meal in the livestock sector. Soybean imports are expected to fall to 95.8 million tons, which would be down 2.8% from the forecast amount this year. This will impact both U.S. and South American export sales.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Kansas City wheat futures posted double-digit gains today, with Chicago futures not far behind, as the technical rebound continues. Winter wheat contracts remain near the bottom of the charts, and oversold conditions may be encouraging short covering. In contrast, Minneapolis wheat closed modestly lower, weighed down by recent rainfall across the Northern Plains and a rapid planting pace.

  • The first day of the Kansas wheat crop tour came with an average yield estimate of 50.5 bpa. This compares with last year’s estimate of 49.9 bpa, and a five-year average of 45.1 bpa. For reference, the USDA is estimating Kansas’ wheat yield at 50 bpa versus 43 bpa last year.

  • On a bearish note, the Russian ag ministry has said that frost damage has impacted about 100,000 hectares this month. This is only about 10% versus the amount impacted at this time last year. Additionally, the Black Sea region is expecting scattered rains that should benefit crop conditions.

  • In Argentina, conditions have been mostly favorable for winter wheat planting so far. Later this week and into the weekend, northern and eastern regions have rain in the forecast. More precipitation is possible next week too, and this would promote establishment of the early planted wheat crop.

  • According to their ag ministry, Ukrainian grain exports have reached 36.7 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 17% decline year over year. Wheat exports in particular are down 13.3% year over year at 14.4 mmt. Furthermore, grain exports so far this month, at 1.5 mmt, are down nearly 50% from the same time period a year ago.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 701 target was lowered to 699.25.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 696 target was lowered to 688. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • The 645 target was cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com