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5-23 Opening Update: Grains Mostly Lower in Quiet Trade Ahead of Holiday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 462.5 -0.5
DEC ’25 452.25 -1
DEC ’26 465.75 -2

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1066.25 -1.25
NOV ’25 1054.25 -1
NOV ’26 1055 0.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 543 -1.5
SEP ’25 559 -1.5
JUL ’26 618.25 -3

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 536 -4
SEP ’25 550.75 -4.25
JUL ’26 615.25 1.5

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 602 1.75
SEP ’25 615.75 1.75
SEP ’26 673.5 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5839 -17.75

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 61.19 -0.01

Gold

AUG ’25 3356.6 33

  • Corn is mixed this morning with the front month slightly higher and the deferred months less than a penny lower in very quiet trade ahead of the holiday weekend.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were disappointing compared to last week at just 1,409k tons compared to 2,186k last week. The top buyers were Japan, Colombia, and Mexico.

  • Concerns over delayed U.S. corn planting and potentially reduced final acreage are providing price support. Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers have increased cash corn sales, and Argentina is set to raise its export tax.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning as well and have backed off from overnight highs that saw July futures as much as 6 cents higher. Soybean meal is trading lower, but soybean oil is recovering from some of yesterday’s losses.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales falling to 323k tons from the previous week’s sales of 773k tons. Top buyers were Mexico, unknown destinations, and Taiwan.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its weekly crop report which did not have an updated production number, it was kept at 50 mmt despite the recent flooding, but the bean crop is now said to be 74.3% harvested.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC trading slightly lower while Minneapolis is higher. Despite this morning’s quiet trade, this has been a strong week for wheat with the July contract up 18 cents and well off the contract low.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was friendly for wheat with 869k tons sold, up from 805k last week. Top destinations were to the Philippines, unknown destinations, and Japan.

  • There have been very heavy rains recently in Argentina, specifically North of Buenos Aires where 6 to 10 inches of rain caused severe flooding. This precipitation has caused delays in wheat planting with only 3.4% of the crop planted. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-22 End of Day: Grains Mixed as Soybeans Extend Rally, Corn Steady, Wheat Eases

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, May 26, in Observance of Memorial Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures saw quiet trade on Thursday. July contracts posted modest gains, buoyed by solid export sales, while deferred contracts faced light profit-taking.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: The July soybean contract closed higher again Thursday, extending its winning streak to four days.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed Thursday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting losses, while Kansas City managed a marginal gain in the deferred months.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw quiet trade on Thursday. July contracts posted modest gains, buoyed by solid export sales, while deferred contracts faced light profit-taking. As of Thursday’s close, December corn futures are up 17 ¾ cents for the week heading into Friday’s session and the Memorial Day weekend.

  • With the recent strong price move, the corn market had entered technically overbought territory. Some short-term correction and position-squaring emerged as traders looked to reduce risk ahead of the three-day weekend.

  • USDA’s weekly export report showed new corn sales of 1.190 MMT (46.9 mb) for 2023-24 and 218,400 MT (8.6 mb) for 2024-25 — within trade expectations and supportive for nearby contracts. Japan was the top buyer for the week.

  • Total U.S. corn export commitments now stand at 2.491 billion bushels, up 28% from last year and just 109 mb shy of the USDA’s full-year projection of 2.6 bb. With the marketing year ending August 30, upward revisions to the USDA’s export forecast and lower ending stocks are becoming more likely.

  • Despite recent rains, roughly 22% of corn-growing areas remain under drought conditions. NOAAs extended 8–14-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the Corn Belt — conditions that may support prices if dryness persists into June.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The July soybean contract closed higher again Thursday, extending its winning streak to four days. Prices have consistently held support between $10.45 and $10.50, anchored by the 100-day moving average. A drier 30-day forecast across key U.S. growing regions continues to fuel concerns of a hot, dry summer — adding a weather premium to the market.

  • Soybean meal ended the day higher, but soybean oil was once again dragged lower by potentially bearish biofuel rumors. Soybean oil gapped down overnight after a rumor circulated that the White House could soon grant a large backlog of Small Refinery Exemptions which would decrease blending and bean oil demand.

  • Today’s export sales were within expectations for soybeans with an increase of 11.3 million bushels reported for 24/25 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 9.2 mb were below the 12.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • The Brazilian soybean market saw its cash market premiums rise with strong buying activity by China. China is estimated to have bought 100 cargoes of soybeans in the month of May with the majority coming from Brazil, including purchase into new crop Brazil soybeans for next spring. The strong Chinese demand has lifted global soybean prices, helping support the global price of soybeans.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed Thursday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting losses, while Kansas City managed a marginal gain. A lower Euro failed to support Paris (Matif) wheat, which closed broadly lower — adding pressure to U.S. futures alongside a firmer U.S. dollar. Additionally, profit-taking after recent gains and uncompetitive U.S. Gulf wheat offers — reportedly $10/mt above Russian FOB levels — contributed to softer trade.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 0.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 32.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 16.1 mb fell under the 28.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 shipments have reached 730 mb, up 12% from last year.

  • A wheat crop tour in Illinois reported an average day-one yield of 106 bpa — well above last year’s estimate of 104 bpa and far exceeding the USDA’s current 85 bpa projection. However, excessive rainfall across southern Illinois and the broader Midwest is raising concerns over potential disease pressure that could threaten final yields.

  • Despite experiencing the second-warmest February in over a century, India is on track to harvest a record wheat crop. USDA pegs production at 117 mmt, which would push stockpiles to a four-year high. As India typically consumes what it produces, this surplus offers limited trade implications but contributes to the global supply glut, adding bearish sentiment to world prices.

  • According to Interfax, Russia exported 1.214 mmt of wheat from May 1 to May 20. Compared with the 3.319 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year, this represents a 63% decline year over year. Reportedly, only 18 companies shipped wheat this May, versus 77 companies in May of last year. Furthermore, total May 2025 shipments are expected to reach 1.8 mmt, which would be 2.6 mmt under the five-year average.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-22 Midday: Corn and Soybeans Reverse Higher; Wheat Remains Weaker

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, May 26, in Observance of Memorial Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 463.75 2.75
DEC ’25 455.25 -0.25
DEC ’26 469 0.75
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1068.75 6
NOV ’25 1054.75 2.5
NOV ’26 1053 2.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 545 -4.25
SEP ’25 561.25 -2.5
JUL ’26 621.75 -0.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 538.5 -2
SEP ’25 553.75 -1
JUL ’26 611.75 -2
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 601.5 -2.75
SEP ’25 614.75 -2.25
SEP ’26 675 -3
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5857.5 -3.75
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 61.03 -0.54
Gold
AUG ’25 3318.6 -23.3

  • Corn futures are mostly lower at midday, pressured by recent rainfall and larger than expected South American crop.

  • Weekly export sales for corn came in at 56 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 2.491 billion bushels, up 28% from last year.

  • According to Agroconsult, Brazil’s corn crop could be the second largest on record. The group estimates production may reach 140 mmt, which would be 9% above last year’s output.

  • Soybeans have reversed higher at midday, on support from potential cuts to Argentina’s crop after recent flooding.

  • Weekly export sales for soybeans totaled 12 mb, which was on the low end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 13% from a year ago at 1.775 billion bushels.

  • Indonesia’s palm exports during the month of April were seen falling 32% from March to 1.384 mmt, according to Intertek Testing Services.

  • Wheat futures continue to see a slight pullback at midday after three consecutive up days in a row.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat were above expectations at 32 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 789 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • India, the second largest wheat grower in the world could see a record output this year due to favorable weather conditions during the crucial growing stage.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-22 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower as Energies and Equities Fall

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 458 -3
DEC ’25 452.25 -3.25
DEC ’26 465 -3.25
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1056.75 -6
NOV ’25 1044.75 -7.5
NOV ’26 1044.25 -6.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 541.75 -7.5
SEP ’25 557 -6.75
JUL ’26 617 -5.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 534.25 -6.25
SEP ’25 549 -5.75
JUL ’26 607 -6.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 600.25 -4
SEP ’25 612.75 -4.25
SEP ’26 678 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5867.75 6.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 60.28 -1.29
Gold
AUG ’25 3320 -21.9

  • Corn is trading lower this morning due to general pressure in the grain complex from a decline in the stock market along with lower crude oil. Corn has now taken back a portion of yesterday’s rally.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,481k tons. This would compare to 2,186k last week and 1,216k a year ago.

  • Concerns over delayed U.S. corn planting and potentially reduced final acreage are providing price support. Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers have increased cash corn sales, and Argentina is set to raise its export tax.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning led by a sharp loss in soybean oil as it follows crude oil prices lower. July soybeans have taken back some of yesterday’s gains but remain above the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is trading higher.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 250k and 700k tons with an average guess of 438k tons. This would compare to 773k a week ago and 345k a year ago.

  • Both crude and soybean oil are trading lower on rumors that OPEC will once again increase crude oil production, and concerns that EPA production obligations for biofuel will be lower than previously hoped.

  • All three classes of wheat are trading lower along with the rest of the grain complex following a strong rally over the last three consecutive days. At yesterday’s high, wheat had gained 50 cents off of the low from last week.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 150k and 800k tons with an average guess of 516k tons. This would compare to 805k last week and 243k a year ago.

  • Rainfall forecasts of 3 to 5 inches over the next seven days for Missouri and southern Illinois are influencing the market, but the longer term forecast shows hot and dry weather over the next month.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-21 End of Day: Grain Complex Firms on Weather Risks and Technical Strength

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures extended their rally on Wednesday, marking a third straight day of gains as continued weakness in the U.S. dollar provided additional support.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures logged a third consecutive day of gains, driven primarily by extended forecasts calling for drier conditions across key U.S. growing regions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher for another session, fueled by continued short covering and supportive global cues.

  • To see updated 7-day accumulated precipitation map and U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended their rally Wednesday, closing higher for the third consecutive day. A weaker U.S. dollar and broad-based strength across the grain complex contributed to the gains, reinforcing bullish momentum.

  • Rain fell again over much of the Corn Belt on Wednesday, providing some key moisture in areas that have been in need of rain. While moisture is welcomed in the western Corn Belt, the eastern region remains too wet. With the calendar moving past optimal planting windows, the market is turning its attention to the final 20% of acres. 

  • Ethanol production rebounded to 305 million gallons last week, up from 292 MG and up 1.7% over last year.  A total of 103 mb was used in ethanol production last week, which is trending slightly below the USDA usage target for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 15, total new corn sales are expected to range from 700,000 – 1.6 MMT for old crop and 50,000 – 5000,000 MT for new crop. Last week’s old crop sales were 1.677 MMT, and toward the top end of expectation.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to a two-week low, adding support to grain markets. Continued dollar weakness could provide further tailwinds for exports.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the third consecutive day breaking out of their previous three-day narrow trading range. Both soybean meal and oil traded higher which was supportive, but extended forecasts showing dry weather were likely the larger bullish factor supporting the entire grain complex.

  • Brazilian soybean market saw it cash market premiums rise with strong buying activity by China. China is estimated to have bought 100 cargoes of soybeans in the month of May with the majority coming from Brazil, including purchase into new crop Brazil soybeans for next spring. The strong Chinese demand has lifted global soybean prices, helping support the global price of soybeans.

  • While U.S. planting progress is ahead of average, recent widespread rains across the Corn Belt may temporarily delay fieldwork. Looking ahead, the 7–14-day forecast points to below-normal precipitation west of Ohio, raising early-season dryness concerns.

  • In Argentina, there was severe flooding over the weekend with rainfall totaling 6 to 10 inches in some areas north of Buenos Aires. The 24/25 bean crop was estimated at 50 mmt previously and was 65% harvested last week. The catastrophic flooding will likely bring production lower.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher for another session, fueled by continued short covering and supportive global cues. Chicago open interest fell by about 4,000 contracts, while speculative traders were estimated buyers of 8,000—indicating short liquidation. Paris milling wheat futures added to gains, breaking key moving average resistance despite a firmer Euro. A weaker U.S. Dollar also provided a lift to the U.S. wheat complex.

  • China’s east-central growing region is forecast have scattered rains and cooler temperatures later this week, which should offer some relief from the recent heat, drought, and high winds. Nevertheless, some damage may have already been done, which could ultimately lead to increased Chinese wheat imports.

  • Argentina announced an extension of its reduced wheat export tax rate (9.5%) through March 31, 2026. The move is intended to support competitiveness but does not apply to corn or soybeans, narrowing the export incentive gap.

  • Traders will be keeping an eye on weather in the Black Sea region. Recent frosts in the Rostov region of Russia led to a declaration of a state of emergency, though it is worth noting that the affected area is only about 10% of the size of that which was impacted last year. Looking forward, the month of June is expected to be warm and dry in the Black Sea, which would also be unfavorable for the wheat crop. In related news, SovEcon is estimating Russian 2025 wheat production at 81 mmt, which is under both last year’s 82.6 mmt crop and the USDA’s estimate of 83 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-21 Midday: Grains Continue to Build Momentum at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 458.75 4.25
DEC ’25 453.75 5.25
DEC ’26 467.75 3.5
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1062.5 9.5
NOV ’25 1053 12
NOV ’26 1050.25 7.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 553 7
SEP ’25 567.5 7.75
JUL ’26 624.75 8.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 544.75 8.5
SEP ’25 558.75 8.75
JUL ’26 615.5 7.5
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 607.25 9.5
SEP ’25 619.5 9.25
SEP ’26 675 4.25
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5948 -11.75
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 61.73 -0.3
Gold
AUG ’25 3345.5 32.9

  • Corn prices continue to trend higher at midday, supported by planting delays due to recent rainfall across the Midwest.

  • Ethanol production came in at 305 million gallons, which was up from 292 million gallons the prior week. Ethanol stocks fell to a 19-week low at 24.9 million barrels but are still above last year’s 24.2 million barrels for the same week.

  • LSEG raised their corn production estimate for Ukraine to 28.2 mmt. This was up 1% from their previous estimate.

  • Soybean futures continue to firm at midday, supported by a lower dollar and inability to break beneath support levels.

  • Anec sees Brazil’s soybean exports reaching 14.52 mmt in May, up from their previous estimate of 14.27 mmt.

  • EU oil seed and soymeal imports are up 11% and 13% respectively. EU vegetable imports, however, are down 24%.

  • Wheat futures strengthen at midday, supported by weakness in the dollar and concerns over crop conditions.

  • Argentina’s Economy Minister, Luis Caputo reported that Argentina will extend the deadline for export tax cuts for wheat shipments until March of 2026. The original deadline for the tax cut was set to expire on June 30, 2025.

  • Weather forecasts for Missouri and Southern Illinois are calling for 3 to 5 inches of rain over the next week which could help to keep some level of support for prices.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-21 Opening Update: Grains Higher As US Dollar Falls

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 455.75 1.25
DEC ’25 451.25 2.75
DEC ’26 467 2.75

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1060.75 7.75
NOV ’25 1049.25 8.25
NOV ’26 1048 5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 549.75 3.75
SEP ’25 563.5 3.75
JUL ’26 618.5 2

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 541.5 5.25
SEP ’25 555.25 5.25
JUL ’26 609.75 1.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 601.75 4
SEP ’25 614.25 4
SEP ’26 671 0.25

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5923.75 -36

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 62.51 0.48

Gold

AUG ’25 3341.1 28.5

  • Most analysts agree with the USDA’s 2024/25 Supply and Demand estimates; however, some believe that the USDA is overestimating 2025/26 U.S. corn exports by about 275 million bushels, which would raise the projected carryout to around 2.025 billion bushels.

  • Concerns over delayed U.S. corn planting and potentially reduced final acreage are providing price support. Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers have increased cash corn sales, and Argentina is set to raise its export tax.

  • Argentina currently offers the cheapest export corn, while EU corn imports are up 8% and exports are down 44%.

  • Dalian futures for soybeans, soymeal, palm oil, and soyoil all moved higher. Matif rapeseed prices also rose on concerns about dry weather in Germany.

  • One group lowered its estimate for 2024/25 U.S. soybean crush by 20 million bushels, raising carryout to 374 million bushels. For 2025/26, they reduced crush estimates by 75 million bushels versus the USDA, but increased export projections by 200 million bushels, resulting in a projected carryout of 500 million bushels compared to the USDA’s 295 million.

  • EU oilseed imports are up 11%, soymeal imports up 13%, and vegetable oil imports down 24%. Volatility in soybean oil continues amid uncertainty around a 45% tax incentive.

  • Wheat futures rallying on a weaker U.S. dollar, increased wheat feeding, and concerns over crop conditions. Russia’s largest wheat-producing region declared a state of emergency due to a poor crop—making it the third region to do so.

  • Rainfall forecasts of 3 to 5 inches over the next seven days for Missouri and southern Illinois are also influencing the market.

  • EU wheat exports are down 33%, and imports are down 18%. Matif wheat futures are trading higher.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-20 End of Day: Grains Gain Ground: Wheat Leads Rally as Crop Concerns Mount

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in the wheat market and growing concerns about late-season planting delays.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Tuesday after a mixed session. July contracts continue to find support at the 100- and 200-day moving averages but have struggled to recover meaningfully from last week’s decline.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed sharply higher Tuesday following a decline in U.S. winter wheat crop conditions in the latest USDA report.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in the wheat market and growing concerns about late-season planting delays. July corn has now traded higher in four of the past five sessions and is nearly 20 cents above recent lows.

  • Technical momentum is building as July futures closed above the key $4.50 level on Tuesday, while December corn pushed through its 200-day moving average. These bullish signals could trigger additional short covering.

  • USDA estimated corn planting at 78% complete, up 16% from last week. This was slightly below expectations, but 15% higher than last year and 5% above the 5-year average. Most states are ahead of schedule compared to the 5-year average, but the states of Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky are behind pace due to wet weather in those states.

  • Rain covered much of the Corn Belt on Tuesday, with more expected throughout the week. While moisture is welcomed in the western Corn Belt, the eastern region remains too wet. With the calendar moving past optimal planting windows, the market is turning its attention to the final 20% of acres.

  • Attention now shifts to summer weather, as NOAA’s long-range forecasts call for a drier pattern and above-average temperatures across much of the Corn Belt — especially in the west, where dryness is already a concern.

Corn Futures Slide Back Toward 2024 Lows as Support Levels Erode
Corn futures bounced in April off the key $4.50 level, boosted by a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average. But May brought selling pressure, as strong planting progress and demand worries dragged prices back below $4.70. The $4.45–$4.50 zone has again held firm, but with momentum weakening, traders are watching to see if this critical support can withstand further pressure.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of mixed trade. July futures have been bouncing higher off support at the 100 and 200-day moving averages but have not been able to rally following last week’s sell-off. While planting pace has been quick, recent rains may slow progress. Both soybean meal and oil were higher to end the day.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 66%, slightly above trade expectations. This compares to 48% last week and a 5-year average of 53%. Emergence was reported at 34%, ahead of last week’s 17% and the average of 23% for this time of year.

  • While planting progress remains strong overall, recent widespread rains across the Corn Belt could slow fieldwork. Looking ahead, the 7–14-day forecast shows below-normal precipitation across much of the Corn Belt west of Ohio, raising concerns about early-season dryness.

  • In Argentina, there was severe flooding over the weekend with rainfall totaling 6 to 10 inches in some areas north of Buenos Aires. The 24/25 bean crop was estimated at 50 mmt previously, but the catastrophic flooding will likely bring that number lower.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed sharply higher Tuesday following a decline in U.S. winter wheat crop conditions in the latest USDA report. Additional heavy rainfall across parts of the already-saturated Southern Midwest raised further concerns about crop quality and may have triggered short covering. A strong rally in Paris milling wheat also supported U.S. prices, with the September Matif contract closing at its highest level in more than two weeks.

  • Winter wheat conditions dropped 2 points to 52% good to excellent, falling short of market expectations for steady ratings. Roughly 64% of the crop is now headed, ahead of the 5-year average of 58% but behind last year’s 67%. For spring wheat, planting progress reached 82%, well ahead of the 5-year average of 65% and last year’s 76%. Emergence stands at 45%, also ahead of normal.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values for June delivery remained unchanged last week at $247 per mt on FOB basis. Both IKAR and SovEcon are similar in their estimates of Russia’s May wheat exports, with the former anticipating between 1.8-2.0 mmt and the latter sitting at 1.8 mmt.

  • The USDA estimates that Brazil’s wheat planted area for 25/26 may be down 8.5% to 2.8 million hectares, when compared with the season prior. However, production is expected to be up 1.4% to 8 mmt, while their consumption is forecast to remain steady at 12.1 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Spring wheat percent emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-20 Midday: Grains Remain Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 451.75 4.25
DEC ’25 445.75 4
DEC ’26 462.5 2.25
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1050.5 -0.25
NOV ’25 1038.25 1.25
NOV ’26 1044 2.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 543.25 14.25
SEP ’25 556.25 13.25
JUL ’26 613.5 10.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 535.25 12.5
SEP ’25 548.75 12.25
JUL ’26 609 12
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 594.25 8.75
SEP ’25 606.5 7.75
SEP ’26 661.5 0
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5966.5 -16
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 61.77 -0.37
Gold
AUG ’25 3312 50.6

  • Corn futures continue to trend higher at midday, supported by a strengthening wheat market.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed planting in the US jumping from 16% to 78% complete. This compares to 67% last year and the five-year average of 73% done at this time.

  • Despite strong demand for US corn, weather across much of the corn belt in the 6-10 forecast looks favorable for early development which could keep further upside potential limited.

  • Soybeans remain firm at midday on news that Argentina’s soybean crop could face “significant losses”, according to BAGE after recent storms.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed planting progress improved 18% to 66% complete. This compares to 50% last year and the five-year average of 53% at this time.

  • Brazil’s oilseed group Abiove, has raised their soybean production forecast for the country slightly from 169.6 mmt to 169.7 mmt.

  • Wheat prices continue to climb at midday after yesterday’s crop progress report showed declining crop ratings.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat ratings falling 2% to 52% good-to-excellent. Spring wheat planting has now reached 82%, up from 66% the prior week and the five-year average of 65%.

  • The Rostov region of Russia as declared a farming emergency after recent frosts in the area effected the crop. However, Sovecon still pegs Russia’s wheat exports for May at 1.8 mmt, citing that recent frosts won’t have much of an effect on the winter wheat crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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5-20 Opening Update: Grains Higher, Led by Wheat Following Crop Progress

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 452.25 4.75
DEC ’25 445.75 4
DEC ’26 463.25 3

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1052 1.25
NOV ’25 1038.25 1.25
NOV ’26 1043.75 2.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 538.25 9.25
SEP ’25 551.75 8.75
JUL ’26 610 7

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 533.5 10.75
SEP ’25 547 10.5
JUL ’26 603.75 6.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 592.25 6.75
SEP ’25 605.25 6.5
SEP ’26 661.5 0

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5971.25 -11.25

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 61.79 -0.35

Gold

AUG ’25 3270.4 9

  • Corn is trading higher this morning following very strong export inspections yesterday and support from a rallying wheat market. With funds now holding a large net short position, there is a better chance for short covering rallies.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw the corn crop at 78% planted which was one point below the average trade guess and compared to 62% a week ago and the average of 73%. 50% of the crop is emerged which compared to the average of 40%.

  • In the northern region of Buenos Aires, Argentina, thousands of residents were evacuated over the weekend as a result of severe flooding following up to 10 inches of rain. This area is an agricultural hub, and unharvested acres and some grain facilities were likely impacted.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher to start the day, but overall have been stagnant this week with prices hovering just above the major moving averages. Soybean meal is trading higher while bean oil is lower.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw that 66% of the soybean crop is planted which was one point above trade estimate and compared to 48% last week and the average of 53%. 34% of the crop is emerged which compared to 17% a week ago and the average of 23% for this time.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections saw just 218k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 440k last week and 192k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Egypt, and Taiwan.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way following reports of frost in the Northern Plains last weekend and then a decline in crop ratings in yesterday’s report.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw winter wheat crop conditions fall by two points to 52% good to excellent. This was also below the average trade guess and compared to 49% a year ago. 64% of the crop is headed which compared to 53% last week and the average of 58%.

  • Spring wheat is estimated at 82% planted which was 2 points ahead of trade estimates, compares to 66% a week ago, and the average of 65%. 45% of the crop is emerged which compares to 27% a week ago and the average of 34%.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.