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6-3 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Turn Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn snapped a five-day losing streak Tuesday as nearing planting completion and weaker-than-expected early crop ratings triggered short covering and modest gains.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rebounded sharply, erasing nearly all of Monday’s losses. Support came from firmer soybean oil — lifted by rising crude prices — and renewed optimism over potential trade deals.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by better U.S. crop ratings and a firmer U.S. dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market broke a five-day losing streak on Tuesday as prices found some footing for the session. Planting progress is nearing completion, but softer historical crop ratings may have supported the new crop market as light buying strength triggered some short covering. The key will be follow-through strength for the rest of the week.

  • As of June 1, corn planting reached 93% complete — on par with the 5-year average. Delays persist in Ohio and Kentucky due to continued wet conditions, with roughly 7.1 million acres still unplanted.

  • Corn crop conditions improved slightly over last week. USDA pegged the percent good/excellent at 69% as of June 1, up 1% over last week.  Corn condition ratings are down from 75% G/E from last year. Cool temperatures have been one of the biggest factors limiting the early stages of the corn crop.

  • April corn used for ethanol totaled 425.8 mb, down from March’s 452.9 mb. While ethanol demand remains firm, regulatory uncertainty and growing stocks could weigh on usage going forward.

  • Long range forecast going into the middle of June remains supportive of good crop development, as the corn market is looking for a bullish story to trigger a potential short covering rally. Currently the weather is a limiting factor to corn prices.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop today. The November contract closed below key 1018.50 support yesterday, triggering Grain Market Insider’s Plan B strategy, which recommends selling a second portion of your 2025 soybean crop today.  Bigger picture, the soybean market continues to trade within a broader range — roughly 1060 on the topside and 960 on the bottom. Yesterday’s break of support shifts the short-term trend within this sideways range to down, increasing the risk of a move back toward 960.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support (HIT 6/2).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target Cancelled: The Plan A upside sales target at 1114 has been cancelled following Monday’s break of 1018.50 support.

      • Heads Up: A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming on Thursday of this week, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and took back nearly all of yesterday’s losses thanks to gains in soybean oil along with positive sentiment that trade deals with a number of countries are in the works and should lead to improved demand. Soybean meal was mixed with gains in the front months and losses in deferred months while soybean oil led the complex higher following crude oil.

  • USDA rated 67% of the crop good to excellent — slightly below expectations. Planting reached 84% vs. 77% last year, with 63% emerged.

  • U.S.–China tensions remain in focus as Presidents Trump and Xi are expected to speak this week. With South America dominating recent Chinese purchases, a fall trade window hinges on resolution.

  • April soybean crush hit a record 202.4 mb, up 14% from last year. Year-to-date crush is running 6% above 2023.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading both sides of neutral, wheat closed lower across all three classes, pressured by better crop ratings, a firming of the U.S. Dollar, and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. In addition, the extended forecast has the potential for rains in some of the dry areas of China and the Black Sea.

  • USDA reported winter wheat at 52% good/excellent (+2%) with 83% headed and 3% harvested — both in line with average. Spring wheat is 95% planted and 50% G/E (+5%).

  • Widespread rains (1–3”) are forecast across the Midwest this week, with heavier totals in the southern U.S., which may delay harvest and impact quality.

  • Moroccan wheat imports between June 1, 2024, and the end of May 2025 totaled 6.05 mmt. This is up 9.4% from the previous 5.53 mmt in the previous 12 months. Soft wheat imports accounted for the majority of that total at 4.97 mmt, while durum made up the remainder at 1.08 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple)

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: Sell more cash now.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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6-3 Midday: Grains Trade Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 440.75 2.5
DEC ’25 439 3.25
DEC ’26 464 2
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1040 6.5
NOV ’25 1021.25 4.25
NOV ’26 1038.5 3
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 541.75 2.75
SEP ’25 555.75 2.5
JUL ’26 616 2.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 541.25 1.5
SEP ’25 554.5 1
JUL ’26 611 1
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 621.75 -5.5
SEP ’25 635 -5.25
SEP ’26 675 -0.75
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6021 20.5
Crude Oil
AUG ’25 62.64 1.1
Gold
AUG ’25 3372.5 -24.7

  • Corn continues to trade higher at midday, supported by short covering after a streak of lower trading for both July and December futures.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn planting progressed 6% from the week prior to 93% complete. This is right in line with the 5-year average and ahead of last year’s pace.

  • AgRural has raised their corn production estimate for Brazil from 124.8 mmt to 128.5 mmt for the 2024/25 season.

  • Soybeans remain firm at midday as 17% of the soybean area in the US is currently under drought. This compares to just 2% of the area under drought this time last year.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting now sits at 84% complete, up 8% from last week and 4% higher than the 5-year average.

  • AgRural increased their soybean production estimate for Brazil to 169 mmt, up from 167.7 mmt in their previous estimate.

  • All three wheat classes are now trading higher at midday on support from drought conditions across the HRS growing area.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed Spring wheat planting jumping 8% to 95% complete. This compares 93% complete during the same week last year and the 5-year average of 90% planted. Winter wheat conditions were seen improving 2% to 54% good-to-excellent.

  • The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences has projected a 10% cut to the wheat output in the country to 30.6 mmt. The group cited dry conditions as the reason for the cut.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-3 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Lower to Start Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 439 0.75
DEC ’25 437.25 1.5
DEC ’26 463 1

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1037.25 3.75
NOV ’25 1019 2
NOV ’26 1038.5 3

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 536.5 -2.5
SEP ’25 551 -2.25
JUL ’26 610 -3.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 535 -4.75
SEP ’25 549 -4.5
JUL ’26 610 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 620.25 -7
SEP ’25 633.75 -6.5
SEP ’26 675.75 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 5985.75 -14.75

Crude Oil

AUG ’25 61.77 0.23

Gold

AUG ’25 3381.4 -15.8

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices recover from lower trade yesterday and lows made overnight that brought July futures down to $4.35. If corn closes higher today, it would break a streak of 7 lower closes.

  • It has been reported that Vietnam is expected to sign trade deals with Washington to buy more than 2 billion dollars worth of US agriculture and vowed to remove all tariffs on US imports. Vietnam is the world’s third largest buyer of US corn.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop ratings for corn improve slightly by 1 point to 68% good to excellent. This was on par with trade guesses. 93% of the crop is planted and 78% is emerged.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but remain under all major moving averages in the July and November futures. The move lower has come despite strong crush numbers and an ending stocks number which is estimated to be just 295 mb. Soybean meal is higher while bean oil is lower.

  • Yesterday’s census crush report showed a record month for soybean crush in April at 202.3 million bushels that was 14% higher than the previous year and puts total crush 6% higher than a year ago.

  • The Crop Progress report saw 67% of the soybean crop rated good to excellent which was a point lower than the average trade guess and was the first soybean rating this year. 84% of the crop is planted and 63% is emerged.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower with Minneapolis wheat leading the way lower and Chicago wheat only down slightly. Both the Chinese wheat belt and Black Sea Regions are to dry which should support wheat further.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report for spring wheat saw good to excellent ratings improving by 5 points from last week at 50% which was also above trade estimates. 95% of the crop is now planted and 73% is emerged.

  • Crop Progress for winter wheat saw the crop rating improve by 2 points to 52% good to excellent which was also above the trade guess. 83% of the crop and 3% is harvested which compares to 5% at this time last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-2 End of Day: Wheat Futures Climb While Corn and Soybeans Continue Decline

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower Monday, with favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt continuing to weigh on prices. December futures closed in the red for the seventh straight session, as traders remain reluctant to add risk premium without a clear weather threat.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower Monday, pressured by uncertainty surrounding upcoming trade talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. exchanges Monday, supported by a combination of adverse global weather, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed geopolitical risk.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended lower Monday as favorable weather remains the dominant market driver. Despite solid demand and a weaker U.S. dollar, July corn closed at its lowest level since October 22, fading from early session highs.

  • USDA export inspections for the week ending May 29 came in at 1.576 MMT (62 mb), topping expectations and up 29% from a year ago, reinforcing strong demand.

  • Weather forecasts continue to pressure prices, with cool temperatures and widespread rains expected across much of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. As a result, the market holds little weather premium, keeping sellers in control.

  • Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will be closely watched. While planting progress in wetter areas remains in focus, traders may shift their attention to condition ratings. Last week’s 68% good-to-excellent rating was a surprise miss, but improved weather could support crop development going forward.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,450 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 100,760 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, today’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming on Wednesday or Thursday of this week, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day with pressure coming from concerns about a trade deal being negotiated between President Trump and China’s Xi. Pressure also came from lower closes in both soybean meal and oil despite gains in crude oil.

  • With Chinese trade concerns mounting, President Trump and Xi are set to speak this week to work out disagreements had at last month’s meeting in Geneva. South America has been the primary supplier of soybeans to China, but the export window for the US will be coming up this fall, and having a trade agreement in place will be crucial.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 24,043 contracts which left them with a net long position of 36,697 contracts. They sold 3,321 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 53,988 contracts and bought back 13,681 contracts of meal which left them near record short at 93,785 contracts.

  • Ahead of the USDA’s upcoming report, analysts expect April soybean crush to total 202 million bushels, up 13.8% from 177.6 mb last year. Corn used for ethanol is also projected to be higher year-over-year.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 24,043 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net long 36,697 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. exchanges Monday, supported by a combination of adverse global weather, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed geopolitical risk. Dryness in key wheat-growing regions — including China, southern Russia, Canada, and northern Europe — continues to underpin prices. In the U.S., excessive rains are raising concerns over potential harvest delays and crop quality issues in the Southern Plains.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 20.3 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 802 mb, up 16% from last year. The USDA is estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 820 mb, up 17% from the year prior.

  • Geopolitical tensions flared again over the weekend, with Ukraine launching drone strikes deep inside Russian territory. Reports suggest four military bases and over 40 Russian bombers were damaged, reintroducing a war premium into the market and casting doubt on the progress of upcoming peace talks.

  • The Australian agriculture ministry is estimating their nation’s 2025 wheat harvest will total 30.6 mmt. If that prediction is accurate, it will be a 10% decline from last year. For reference, the USDA is estimating Australian wheat production at 31 mmt.

  • Russian wheat export prices held steady at $225/MT, according to IKAR, which also forecast June exports at 1.2 MMT — down from 2.1 MMT in May. Meanwhile, Russia’s agriculture ministry slashed its wheat export tax by 25% to 1,023 rubles per metric ton.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,667 contracts between May 20– May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 101,226 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 801 contracts between May 20– May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 79,361 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop today. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,622 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 30,518 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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6-2 Midday: Wheat Leads Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 445.5 1.5
DEC ’25 439.5 1
DEC ’26 461.75 1.25
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1035.25 -6.5
NOV ’25 1019 -7.75
NOV ’26 1036.5 -2.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 545.25 11.25
SEP ’25 559.25 11
JUL ’26 619.25 8.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 546.25 13
SEP ’25 559.5 12.5
JUL ’26 615 10
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 628.5 3
SEP ’25 641.25 4
SEP ’26 675 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 5964.75 -4.5
Crude Oil
AUG ’25 61.7 1.91
Gold
AUG ’25 3401 85.6

  • Corn futures are trading higher at midday, buoyed by double-digit gains in the wheat market.

  • However, Brazil’s ongoing harvest and a wet forecast across the Corn Belt this week may limit upside in the near term.

  • Geopolitical tensions are offering some support, as Russia and Ukraine ramp up attacks ahead of peace talks in Turkey — including a Ukrainian drone strike on Russian nuclear bombers over the weekend.

  • Soybean futures are lower on Monday, pressured by favorable Midwest moisture and stalled U.S.–China trade negotiations.

  • July crush margins fell to a two-year low at $1.26 per bushel, adding to market weakness.

  • Analysts estimate soybean planting progress reached 85%–88% in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Initial crop condition ratings are expected between 64% and 68% good to excellent.

  • Winter wheat futures traded sharply higher midday Monday amid escalating Russia–Ukraine tensions, despite scheduled peace talks.

  • Despite peace talks scheduled for this week Russia and Ukraine continued to step up attacks on the other, with a weekend drone attack by Ukraine hitting Russian nuclear bombers.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report is expected to show a 1–2 point improvement in winter wheat ratings, with spring wheat also likely to rebound from last week’s 45% good-to-excellent reading.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

6-2 Opening Update: Wheat Leads the Way Higher for Corn, Soybeans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 446.25 2.25
DEC ’25 439 0.5
DEC ’26 460.5 0

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1037.25 -4.5
NOV ’25 1021.75 -5
NOV ’26 1035.75 -3.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 539.75 5.75
SEP ’25 554 5.75
JUL ’26 614.5 3.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 540.25 7
SEP ’25 553.5 6.5
JUL ’26 611.25 6.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 631 5.5
SEP ’25 643.5 6.25
SEP ’26 675 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 5947 -22.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’25 62.1 2.31

Gold

AUG ’25 3374.3 58.9

  • Corn is trading higher this morning to kick off the month with support from a higher wheat complex. Corn prices are near their lowest levels of the year due to beneficial rains that have set the crops up well for a potentially hot and dry summer.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn. The bought back 2,450 contracts which decreased their net short position to 100,760 contracts as of May 27.

  • Last week’s export sales report saw corn sales falling from the previous week at 948k tons compared to 1,409k last week. This also compared to 998k a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning despite gains in corn and wheat after President Trump’s negotiations with China appeared not to go anywhere last week frustrating traders. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is following crude oil’s sharp move higher.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 24,043 contracts which left them with a net long position of 36,697 contracts. They sold 3,321 contracts of bean oil and bought back 13,681 contracts of meal.

  • Estimates for the US April soybean crush ahead of the USDA report see soybean crush at 202 million bushels which would be up 13.8% from 177.6 mb a year ago at this time. Corn used in ethanol is expected to be higher year over year.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the month with KC wheat leading the way higher. Poor crop ratings for both spring and winter wheat have been supportive along with a reported increase in feed demand at these lower prices.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 13,681 contracts which left them net short 101,226 contracts. They also bought back 7,667 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 79,361 contracts.

  • The southern plains saw another week of wet conditions along with other hard red areas which could have a positive impact on crop ratings. Crop progress will be released this afternoon with new figures.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

5-30 End of Day: Grain Markets Cool as Weather Improves, Trade Tensions Rise

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed lower for a third straight session, down 15¼ cents on the week. A favorable weather outlook and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions weighed on prices, overshadowing fresh export activity.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended the day in the red, with July closing below all major moving averages for the first time since early April. Prices settled at the bottom of their recent range as beneficial weather and weaker soybean oil added pressure.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures finished mixed on Friday. Chicago slipped slightly, Kansas City notched modest gains, and Minneapolis led to the upside for a third straight session, buoyed by poor spring wheat crop ratings and technical momentum.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With the 474 target failing to hit this week, be prepared for a sales recommendation next week. Sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week lower, falling for a third straight session and shedding 15¼ cents overall. A softer demand tone, large expectations for Brazil corn crop, and trade concerns between the U.S. and China pressured the market.

  • President Trump reignited trade concerns Thursday with comments accusing China of violating a recent agreement, suggesting potential sanctions, though no details were provided. The uncertainty pressured markets late in the session.

  • USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 22, USDA reported new sales of 916,000 MT (36.1 mb). This was within, but towards the low end of expectations and down 23% from last week. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week. Corn sales commitments now total 2.527 BB for the 2024-25 marketing year and are up 28% from last year. The USDA export target for the marketing year is 2.600 BB.

  • USDA also confirmed a flash sale of 210,560 MT (8.3 mb) of corn to unknown destinations — the third consecutive daily export announcement.

  • The total corn production out of Brazil is larger than expected and could be pushing 140 MMT. The USDA forecast is for 130 MMT. Safras, a Brazilian Agriculture Analyst firm, raised their forecast 139 MMT today, with a nearly 4MMT bump in the second crop corn due to strong yield and favorable weather in the growing season.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Mid-to-late next week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower at the bottom of their recent trading range with the July contract closing below all major moving averages for the first time since the beginning of April. Beneficial weather has pressured grains, but today, a sharp decline in soybean oil brought the soy complex lower. Soybean oil closed over 3% lower while meal was unchanged to lower.

  • Today’s export sales were on the poor side for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 5.4 million bushels of sales in 24/25 and an increase of 1.2 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Indonesia, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 7.7 mb were below the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • In South America, estimates for Brazilian soybean production are beginning to rise with the highest estimates near 182.5 mmt, which would be significantly higher than the USDA’s most recent estimate of 169 mmt. In addition, Brazilian soybean exports for May are expected to be higher than expected at 15.0 mmt.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 18-1/2 cents while November soybeans posted larger losses at 23 cents. July soybean meal was nearly unchanged at 0.1 higher to $296.30. July soybean oil lost 2.46 cents at 46.89 cents.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed Friday: Chicago slipped slightly, Kansas City posted small gains, and Minneapolis led again, though the July contract stalled at its 200-day moving average (626 ¾). Delayed harvests and 2–4 inches of forecasted rain in the Southern Plains helped support HRW prices. Technically, all three classes are forming the right shoulder of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern — a potential bullish signal.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 4.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, but an increase of 26.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 18.4 mb fell under the 34.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their 24/25 export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 748 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • SovEcon recently increased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 1.1 mmt to 40.8 mmt. However, the Russian deputy ag minister is projecting their 2025 wheat exports much higher, at 44.5 mmt. The minister is also estimating their total 2025 grain exports at 53 mmt.

  • Dry conditions persist in key Chinese wheat regions, prompting efforts to induce rainfall via cloud seeding using drones and artillery. Reports suggest rainfall could increase 4% over 8,000 sq km.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, dry weather in western and northern Argentina has allowed wheat planting to get off to a good start. The exchange is expecting a total planted area of 6.7 million hectares, with 10.5% of it now complete. Planting in eastern growing regions, however, may see delays due to recent heavy rainfall, which has also hindered corn and soybean harvest.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Expect the first sales targets to post next week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-30 Midday: Spring Wheat Continues Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 447 0
DEC ’25 439.5 -1.75
DEC ’26 460 0.5
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1044.25 -7.5
NOV ’25 1028.75 -8.5
NOV ’26 1038.75 -6
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 533.75 -0.25
SEP ’25 548 -0.75
JUL ’26 612.25 -0.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 532.75 1
SEP ’25 546.75 1
JUL ’26 603.25 -1.5
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 623 7.5
SEP ’25 634 6
SEP ’26 674.5 0.5
S&P 500
JUN ’25 5903.75 -19
Crude Oil
JUL ’25 60.46 -0.48
Gold
AUG ’25 3309.2 -34.7

  • Corn futures are mixed to slightly lower at midday, with December futures on pace for their sixth consecutive lower close.

  • An active pattern across the Corn Belt is bringing a near-ideal mix of rain and sunshine, setting up excellent early-season conditions for the quickly planted crop as it heads into mid-June.

  • Corn export sales for the week ending May 22 totaled 36.1 mb for 2024-25 and 1.2 mb for 2025-26. Shipments reached 62.9 mb, well above the 45.2 mb weekly pace needed to hit USDA’s 2.6 bb target. Total commitments now stand at 2.527 bb, up 28% from a year ago.

  • Soybean futures are lower at midday as favorable U.S. weather and lack of new news weighs on the market.

  • Soybean and soybean oil futures remain rangebound as the market awaits long-delayed updates to U.S. biofuels policy, particularly the Renewable Fuel Standard’s volume obligations.

  • U.S. soybean meal export sales for the week ending May 22 totaled 179,000 tons for the upcoming marketing year — over three times expectations and the 8th largest combined weekly total on record.

  • Wheat futures are mixed at midday, with winter wheat futures lower and spring wheat futures higher.

  • Tuesday’s Crop Progress report showed spring wheat rated just 45% good to excellent — the lowest initial rating since 2021 and well below expectations.

  • India’s ag ministry estimates this year’s wheat crop at a record 117.5 MMT, up 4 MMT from last year, making imports increasingly unlikely.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

5-30 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower in Quiet Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 448.5 1.5
DEC ’25 441.5 0.25
DEC ’26 460 0.5

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1050.25 -1.5
NOV ’25 1035.5 -1.75
NOV ’26 1044 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 535.5 1.5
SEP ’25 550 1.25
JUL ’26 616.25 3.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 534.5 2.75
SEP ’25 548.25 2.5
JUL ’26 604.75 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 623 7.5
SEP ’25 634.25 6.25
SEP ’26 674.5 0.5

S&P 500

JUN ’25 5921.25 -1.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’25 61.62 0.68

Gold

AUG ’25 3316.3 -27.6

  • Corn is mixed to start the day with the July contract slightly higher and the deferred months lower. Ethanol production rose 20,000 barrels from a week ago and ethanol stocks fell.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,75k tons. This would compare to 1,409k a week ago and would indicate good demand.

  • Pressure has come from necessary rains over the past week and more in the forecast throughout the the Corn Belt. Although longer term forecasts maybe hot and dry, these rains are a big benefit.

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start the day and are at the bottom of their trading range after falling through the 100-day moving average yesterday and then recovering. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is down significantly pulling the complex lower.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 150k and 700k tons with an average guess of 353k tons. This would compare to 323k a week ago and 336k tons a year ago at this time.

  • Yesterday it was announced that the US trade court ruled that the tariffs imposed on China by President Trump were not legal which could remove the tariffs placed on soybeans and improve demand.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day and would be the third consecutively higher close following Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. July Chicago wheat is currently down 8 cents on the week.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 100k and 800k tons with an average guess of 509k tons. This would compare to 869k last week and 321k a year ago at this time.

  • Canadian wheat production is estimated to be lower as a result of dryness in the southern Prairies. Production is estimated to be lowered by 3% to 35.5 mmt as soil moisture conditions deteriorate.

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5-29 End of Day: Mixed Grains: Wheat Leads, Corn Extends Losses, Soybeans Split

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures fell for a second straight session Thursday, led by July contracts, though prices pared losses after bouncing off session lows on support from fresh export sales.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended mixed Thursday, with new crop contracts edging higher, while old crop contracts slipped slightly after a volatile session that saw July fall below key moving averages amid improving weather forecasts.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes ended higher on Thursday, led by Minneapolis futures, which posted double-digit gains for a second session.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given this week. If it hasn’t been hit by Friday’s close, another sales recommendation may be made early next week based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended losses for a second session Thursday, with July leading the decline. Prices bounced off session lows, supported by fresh export sales and strength in other grain markets.

  • Trading volume was the lightest of the week, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. July corn is down 12 ½ cents so far this week heading into Friday.

  • USDA announced two flash sales Thursday: 104,000 MT to Mexico and 101,096 MT to Unknown for 2024-25 delivery. Weekly export sales for the week ending May 22 will be released on Friday.

  • Weekly ethanol production climbed higher again this week up to 310.5 mil. gallons, up from 305 mil. the previous week. This total was down 1% from last year. A total of 105 mb of corn was used in production last week but has slipped behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.

  • Weather will stay as the driver in the corn market in the near-term as forecasts moving into early June look friendly for crop development.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the new crop contracts finishing higher while new crop was slightly lower. This came after a day of volatile trade, which saw July soybeans fall below the major moving averages to as much as 8 cents lower as weather forecasts improve. Soybean meal was higher while bean oil ended the day lower.

  • A U.S. trade court ruling late Wednesday deemed former President Trump’s China tariffs unlawful, raising speculation that soybean-related tariffs could be lifted—potentially boosting U.S. export prospects this fall, despite China’s current reliance on Brazilian supplies.

  • At this time, funds are estimated to hold a net long position in soybeans of around 10,000 contracts and are estimated to have a long position in soybean oil around 59,000 contracts. In soybean meal, however, they hold a net short position of over 100,000 contracts, which is a record short position and could trigger short covering at some point.

  • In Argentina, the recent rains and severe flooding near Buenos Aires will likely impact the country’s total production. One prominent South American crop scout has lowered their estimate by 1.6 mmt for total production of 48.5 mmt. In Brazil, soybean production is estimated near 170 mmt.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes ended higher Thursday, led by Minneapolis futures, which posted double-digit gains for a second session. Support came from the spring wheat crop’s lower-than-expected 45% good/excellent rating, a bearish reversal in the U.S. Dollar Index, and strength in Paris milling wheat (Matif), which also saw a bullish reversal and positive close.

  • USDA data as of May 27 shows 16% of U.S. winter wheat acreage remains under drought conditions—down 5% from last week—likely reflecting recent rainfall in Kansas. However, spring wheat areas in drought held steady at 29%, a sharp contrast to just 3% a year ago, helping to fuel strength in Minneapolis prices.

  • According to the USDA, as of May 27, an estimated 16% of US winter wheat acreage is experiencing drought conditions. This is down 5% from last week and may largely be attributed to recent rains in Kansas. Spring wheat production areas in drought held steady, however, at 29% during the same timeframe. This is far above the 3% reading from a year ago, which may help to explain the boost today in Minneapolis prices. The European Commission has revised their estimate of EU 25/26 grain production from 280.3 mmt to 279.6 mmt. However, this was largely due to decreases in their corn estimate. In fact, their soft wheat harvest projection was raised by 0.3 mmt to 126.6 mmt.

  • LSEG cut its forecast for Canadian wheat output to 35.3 MMT, down 3% from its previous estimate, citing persistent dryness across the southern Prairies, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. For comparison, USDA’s latest estimate stands slightly higher at 36 MMT.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather