Corn futures are little changed at midday as market participants await the June WASDE report before taking action.
Weekly corn export sales were on the low end of expectations at 30 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 2.596 billion bushels, up 26% from last year.
Conab has raised their corn production forecast for Brazil to 128.25 mmt, up from 126.87 mmt last month.
Soybean prices lean slightly higher at midday, but overall trade is quiet ahead of the WASDE report this morning.
Weekly export sales for soybeans were lackluster, coming in below expectations at just 4 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 1.790 billion bushels, up 11% from a year ago.
Conab has raised their soybean production forecast for Brazil to 169.6 mmt, up from 168.34 mmt last month.
Minneapolis wheat futures are the strong leg of the wheat complex at midday. Chicago and HRW are lower ahead of the June WASDE report, which is widely expected to show increases to winter wheat yields.
Weekly export sales for wheat were poor with total sales for the week totaling less than 1 mb. Year-to-date commitments for new crop have reached 217 mb, up 22% from last year and an 8-year high.
The Rosario Grains Exchange in Argentina has slightly lowered their estimate for the country’s wheat output from 21 mmt to 20.7 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Dalian corn futures were slightly lower, while U.S. 2024/25 and 2025/26 corn carryout is estimated at 1.392 and 1.792 billion bushels, respectively, in today’s WASDE.
Vietnam opted to buy U.S. corn over South American supplies, but most global buyers, including Taiwan, continue sourcing from Brazil; Ukraine’s exports are tight, reaching 82% of USDA’s 22 mmt projection.
U.S. weekly corn export sales are estimated at 700-1200 mt vs 942 mt last week; ethanol production rose 9.5% year-over-year, with stocks up 2.2%.
Dalian soybean and soymeal futures traded higher, while soyoil and palm oil were lower.
U.S. soybean carryout is estimated at 351 million bushels for 2024/25 and 298 for 2025/26; world 2025/26 ending stocks are seen at 124.5 mmt vs 124.3 mmt in May.
China’s soybean imports are expected to hold at 108 mmt after a record May (13.6 mmt); India’s May veg oil imports rose from April but fell year-over-year; U.S. weekly soybean export sales are estimated at 100-500 mmt vs 194 mt last week.
The USDA is expected to raise Russia’s wheat crop estimate but lower its export outlook; Australia’s crop may also be revised higher, while the EU crop could be near 138 mmt.
Trade estimates put the U.S. wheat crop at 1.924 billion bushels (vs 1.921 in May), with 2024/25 carryout at 842 and 2025/26 at 924 million.
Wet weather has returned to the U.S. Southern Plains ahead of harvest; weekly U.S. wheat export sales are estimated at 400-600 mt vs 444 mt last week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
🌽 Corn: Corn futures faded from early gains to close lower, as the market lacked fresh bullish catalysts despite record ethanol production and easing U.S.-China trade tensions; attention now turns to Thursday’s WASDE and export data for potential demand-driven support.
🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures slipped after early strength, weighed down by a bearish weather outlook and rising global stock projections, while U.S.-China trade talks offered cautious optimism despite no direct ag commitments.
🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mostly higher, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over wet U.S. harvest conditions and Russian drought, while traders await Thursday’s WASDE for updated stock and production estimates.
To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
Changes:
None.
Rally Watch: With five sales recommendations since December 30 at an average price of around 492, there’s a solid cushion in place to continue aiming for a weather rally for next sales recommendations.
2025 Crop:
Plan A:
Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
SalesRecs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
Changes:
None.
Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.
2026 Crop:
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
Changes:
None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Disappointing close in the corn market as prices failed to hold early session strength and finished lower on the day. The July contract led the push lower as the old crop market is looking for news to push the market higher.
Early session gains were fueled by optimism of an easing of the U.S.-China trade tension as negotiations in London reach some agreements. While it is still not a major trade agreement, it is still a stepping stone to further talks between the two countries.
The USDA will release the June WASDE report on Thursday. Analysts are expecting little change in the new crop forecasts from May, but the focus will be on demand projections for the old crop. Expectations are for adjustments higher in export demand, which could lower corn carryout for 2024-25 below 1.400 billion bushels.
Weekly ethanol production last week reached a record high of 1,120K barrels per day in the week ending June 6. An estimated total of 108.6 mb was used in ethanol production last week. This total was on pace to reach the USDA target for corn usage for the marketing year. Ethanol stocks slipped to 23.7 million barrels, down from 24.4 million barrels from last week.
The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn export demand has been strong as sales are nearly reaching the USDA market-year target. Shipments may be the key number going forward as U.S. bushels are not competing against South American bushels on the export market.
Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.
Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. corn yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates how uncommon it is for the USDA to change the projected national average corn yield on the June WASDE report.
Soybeans
2024 Crop:
Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
Changes:
No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.
2025 Crop:
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –
Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.
Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.
Plan A:
No active sales targets.
Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
Plan B:
No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
Changes:
None.
We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Soybeans couldn’t keep up the momentum from early morning gains, closing lower on the day as a bearish weather outlook leads to choppy price action. July futures have been relatively flat with prices floating in a 13-cent range between $10.50 and $10.63 so far this week.
Tomorrow’s WASDE report is expected to show 2025/26 world ending stocks at 124.5 mmt, which would be higher than May’s 124.3 mmt number. Estimates for U.S. 2024/25 carryout are at 351 mb, while 2025/26 estimates are at 298 mb.
Anec sees Brazil’s soybean exports for the month of June reaching 14.08 mmt, up from last week’s estimate of 12.55 mmt.
Trade talks between the U.S. and China were reportedly successful with the two sides agreeing to a framework deal which would include magnets and rare earth minerals. There was no mention of U.S. agricultural goods, but now that the two sides seem to be on better terms, a deal could come into play at some point.
Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.
Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. soybean yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates how uncommon it is for the USDA to change the projected national average soybean yield on the June WASDE report.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
Wheat closed mostly higher, led by Minneapolis futures. Support came from a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, which itself was tied to today’s CPI report that showed consumer prices increased 0.1% in May compared to expectations of a 0.2% increase.
Tomorrow will feature the monthly WASDE report. The average pre-report estimate of old crop wheat stocks at 844 mb, compared to 841 mb last month. New crop is estimated at 919 mb versus 923 mb last month, with production pegged at 1.925 bb.
While U.S. weather remains mostly favorable, the southern Midwest and southeast Plains are still too wet. Continued rains will delay winter wheat harvest activity and could also affect quality and production.
According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 33% year over year at 19.5 mmt as of June 8. This compares with 29.2 mmt shipped through the same time last year.
The Rostov area of Russia, which is their biggest grain production region, has declared a state of emergency due to drought. Spring frosts were also an issue, though less damaging than they were a year ago. This region is set to begin harvest the second part of June.
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
Changes:
The 693.75 target has been cancelled.
2026 Crop:
Plan A:
Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
Changes:
None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.
Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
Changes:
None.
The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550 First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.
Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Changes:
None.
First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Leading the Complex July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.
Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: US 3-day maximum heat index forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: US 7-day maximum heat index forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Corn futures have backed off at midday after a reversal in the wheat market and ethanol production rebounding.
Today’s Weekly Ethanol Production report showed production totaling 329 million gallons, up from 325 million gallons the week prior. Ethanol stocks were seen dropping to 23.7 million barrels, which is the lowest level since December 2024.
Thursday’s WASDE report is widely expected to show Brazil’s corn crop increasing by 1 to 2 mmt. However, Brazil is expected to increase domestic usage for animal feed and ethanol production which could limit export quantities.
Soybeans have fallen at midday on expected increases to ending stocks in tomorrow’s WASDE report for both old and new crop.
Abiove has left their soybean production estimate unchanged for Brazil at 169.7 mmt for the 2024/25 season.
According to Anec, Brazil’s soybean exports for the month of June are seen at 14.08 mmt. This compares to 12.55 mmt just a week earlier.
Minneapolis wheat futures remain higher at midday, while Chicago and HRW contracts have reversed lower. Weather forecasts are calling for rain next week but are not supposed to hit HRW growing areas which have seen plenty of moisture so far this season.
EU soft wheat exports as of June 8th totaled 19.5 mmt, down 33% from the same period last year.
China’s agricultural ministry reported that wheat harvest in the country is now at 74.7% complete as of June 10th.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Dalian corn futures ticked slightly higher, with U.S. markets continuing a short-covering rally ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. In contrast, MATIF August corn futures fell to new contract lows.
Trade estimates U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.392 billion bushels and 2025/26 at 1.792 billion bushels, though one group sees 2025/26 carryout rising to 2.03 billion on weaker export expectations. World 2025/26 corn ending stocks are projected at 278.8 mmt, slightly above May’s 277.8.
Vietnam signed a deal to import U.S. corn over South American alternatives. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s corn exports have reached 18 mmt, 82% of USDA’s target, amid tightening supplies. Taiwan sourced corn from Brazil, which remains the primary supplier for most global buyers. EU corn imports are up 7% year-over-year, while exports are down 41%.
Dalian soybean and soymeal futures moved higher, while soyoil and palm oil futures declined. In Europe, MATIF rapeseed futures tested key resistance levels before retreating.
Ongoing uncertainty around the EPA’s biofuel policy clouds the outlook. Trade estimates peg the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout at 351 million bushels and 2025/26 at 298 million, though one group sees weaker exports pushing 2025/26 carryout closer to 500 million.
World 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 124.5 mmt, slightly above May’s 124.3. One firm expects U.S. 2024/25 soyoil carryout to fall to 1090 million lbs (vs. USDA’s 1451) due to lower production and stronger exports.
Showers are expected in China and southern Russia, but Saskatchewan may miss beneficial rainfall. In the U.S. Southern Plains, drier weather should aid the wheat harvest.
Russian wheat crop estimates have been raised to 84 mmt, and the EU’s crop could reach 138 mmt. However, EU wheat exports are down 32% year-over-year, while Australian wheat futures are trading near a 7-month low.
The U.S. wheat crop is estimated at 1.924 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from May. U.S. 2024/25 wheat carryout is projected at 842 million bushels, rising to 924 million in 2025/26.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
🌽 Corn: Corn prices rebounded off session lows to finish higher on the day, despite a 2% increase to 71% Good/Excellent in Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report. Today’s reversal may also signal the beginning of position-squaring ahead of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.
🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day in positive territory, though well off their session highs. Beneficial weather continues to provide resistance, while optimism over potential trade deals is offering support. Reports indicate that U.S.–China trade talks went well yesterday, but no official agreement has been announced.
🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes posted sizeable losses for a second consecutive session following improvements in winter and spring wheat crop conditions, as reported in the latest USDA Crop Progress Report. Adding to the bearish tone was an overnight statement from Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, projecting this year’s Russian grain harvest at 135 million metric tons — a 7% increase from last year.
To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
Changes:
None.
No Action Yet: Still waiting on a potential spring/summer weather volatility rally before recommending the next sale.
2025 Crop:
Plan A:
Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
SalesRecs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
Changes:
None.
Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.
2026 Crop:
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
Changes:
None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Buyers came back into the corn market on a “turn around” Tuesday as the market was pulled higher by the front month futures as traders may have started covering short positions before Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.
According to the USDA ‘s latest Crop Progress and Condition report on Monday afternoon, 97% of the corn crop is planted. This leaves approximately 2.8 million acres left to be planted on June 10. These acres, if unplanted, could lower the total planted acres for corn on the June 30 acre report back below 95 million, which should support Dec corn futures at these levels.
The USDA will release the June WASDE report on Thursday. Analysts are expecting little change in the new crop forecasts from May, but the focus will be on demand projections for the old crop. Expectations are for adjustments higher in export demand, which could lower corn carryout for 2024-25 below 1.400 billion bushels.
Corn crop conditions improved by 2% Good/Excellent to 71% G/E in Monday’s Crop Progress report. The firmness in corn prices on Tuesday may have signified that those conditions were priced in with the weakness on Monday.
Corn charts saw an improved technical picture with Tuesday’s close as prices reversed higher off early session lows. Price follow-through on Wednesday may be key for signaling a turn in an oversold market.
Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.
Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
2024 Crop:
Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
Changes:
No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.
2025 Crop:
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –
Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.
Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.
Plan A:
No active sales targets.
Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
Plan B:
No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
Changes:
None.
We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Soybeans finished the day in positive territory, though they reversed off earlier highs that saw the July contract up more than 6 cents at one point. Beneficial weather has continued to apply downward pressure, while optimism over potential trade deals with other countries has offered support. Both soybean meal and soybean oil also ended the day higher.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its updated Crop Progress report which showed the crop at 90% planted which was up from 84% a week ago, and 75% has emerged which compared to 63% a week ago. Crop conditions improved by 1 point with 68% of the crop now rated good to excellent.
China imported a record number of soybeans in the month of May. For the month, China imported an estimated 13.92 MMT (511 MB). The strong imports followed disappointing totals in February, March, and April as Chinese importers were waiting for the freshly harvested Brazilian soybeans to hit the export market.
The trade talks between the U.S. and China yesterday reportedly went well but a deal has not yet been released. Trade deals with Japan, India, Vietnam, and South Korea are reportedly very close.
Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.
Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
Wheat was the downside leader in the grain complex today, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar, lower Matif wheat futures, and improving U.S. crop ratings. Additionally, from a technical perspective, all three U.S. futures classes now have downward momentum on the daily RSI and stochastics.
According to the USDA Crop Progress report, winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 54% good to excellent. Additionally, 88% of the crop is headed and harvest is 4% complete, which is well below last year’s 11% pace and the average of 7%. The Spring wheat crop is 82% emerged, and conditions improved 3% from a week ago to 53% good to excellent.
Overnight, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia stated that this year’s Russian grain harvest would total 135 mmt, which would be 7% above last year’s 125.9 mmt production. Additionally, 93% of their winter crops are said to be in good condition. This added to pressure in the U.S. wheat market today.
Wheat harvest is set to start in the North China Plain this week, though may be delayed by scattered rains late in the week. Heaviest rain totals will be across southeast China into next week.
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
Changes:
The 693.75 target has been cancelled.
2026 Crop:
Plan A:
Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
Changes:
None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
Changes:
None.
The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550 First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.
Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
2024 Crop:
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Changes:
None.
First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Leading the Complex July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.
Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Corn prices are being pulled down by the wheat market as well as planting reaching the home stretch.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn planting in the U.S. has now reached 97%, up 4% from last week and in line with the 5-year average.
According to AgRural, Brazil’s winter corn harvest is off to its slowest start since 2021, sitting at just 1.9% complete. This compares to 10% harvested in the same week last year.
Soybeans have reversed higher at midday on optimism from trade talks between the U.S. and China yesterday.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 90% complete, up from 84% last week and 2% ahead of the 5-year average.
The Malaysia Palm Oil Board has reported that palm oil inventories in the country have increased to an eight-month high of 1.99 mmt. Production was also seen climbing 5.1% to 1.77 mmt.
All three wheat classes continue to drift lower, pressured by global increases in total wheat output and yesterday’s crop ratings.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed Spring wheat ratings improving to 53% good-to-excellent but remain well below last year’s rating of 72% good-to-excellent. Winter wheat ratings improved 2 points from last week to 54% good-to-excellent.
SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production forecast by 1.8 mmt to 82.8 mmt. The group cited good weather in the Southern region as the reason for the increase in production.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower again today following steep losses in yesterday’s session as funds continue piling onto their short positions with weather remaining beneficial.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the good to excellent rating for corn rising to 71% which was above the average trade guess and compared to 69% last week. 87% of the crop is now emerged which compares to 78% a week ago and the average of 87%.
This Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and early estimates see corn production slightly lower from last month but relatively unchanged. Ending stocks are expected to fall slightly to 1.789 bb.
Soybeans are mixed again today with the two front months trading higher while the deferred months are lower. While the rest of the grain complex sold off sharply yesterday, soybeans were only slightly lower. Soybean meal is currently lower while soybean oil is higher.
The trade talks between the US and China yesterday reportedly went well but a deal is has not yet been released. Trade deals with Japan, India, Vietnam, and South Korea are reportedly very close.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw the good to excellent rating for soybeans up 1 point from last week at 68%. This was on par with trade estimates. Iowa is leading the pack with ratings of 80%. 90% of the soybean crop is planted and 75% is emerged.
All three wheat classes are trading lower again today after sharp losses posted yesterday. Paris milling wheat is lower again and has been dragging US futures down with it. Improving crop ratings have been bearish as well.
Sov Econ has just increased their estimates for the Russian wheat crop by 1.8 mmt to 82.8 mmt and has also increased export estimates. Russian FOB values are cheap around $225/mt.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw the spring wheat good to excellent rating improve by 3% to 53% while winter wheat was up 2 points to 54%. 4% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested and 82% of spring wheat is emerged.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed sharply lower as long-range weather models turned wetter. The July contract posted its lowest close since October 18, while the December contract gave back all its gains from the previous three trading sessions.
🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower despite better-than-expected export inspections of 20.1 million bushels for the week ended June 5. Both the July and November contracts snapped a four-day winning streak yet remain above their June lows by roughly 30 cents and 15 cents, respectively.
🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes posted their largest one-day losses since May 27. The drop was driven by a combination of harvest pressure, weaker Matif wheat, beneficial weekend rains in Australia, and an improved rainfall outlook for the U.S. Northern Plains.
To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
Changes:
None.
No Action Yet: Still waiting on a potential spring/summer weather volatility rally before recommending the next sale.
2025 Crop:
Plan A:
Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
SalesRecs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
Changes:
None.
Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.
2026 Crop:
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
Changes:
None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Disappointing day in the corn market as sellers stepped aggressively back into the corn market. The strong selling pressure eliminated the gains in the Dec corn contract last week and a wetter tone in some forecast and technical selling pressured the market
Dec corn futures failed to push through the psychological 450 price area. The failure at this level triggered selling pressure as prices continue to drop through levels of support. The weak technical close opens the door for additional selling pressure going into Tuesday.
Long-range weather models turn heavier with precipitation from the end of June into early July, which countered some drier weather talk last week.
USDA will release crop progress and condition ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for 97% of the corn crop to be planted. Conditions ratings have been below average, but improved weather is expected to boost the rating to 70% good/excellent, up 1% from last week.
USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday. Last week, US exporters shipped 1.657 MMT (65.2 mb) of corn. This total was above market expectations. Current corn shipments are up 29% over last year. The current shipment pace is ahead of the pace to reach the USDA marketing year target by approximately 160 mb.
Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 53,283 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 154,043 contracts.
Soybeans
2024 Crop:
Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
Changes:
None.
No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.
2025 Crop:
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –
Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.
Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.
Plan A:
No active sales targets.
Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
Plan B:
No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
Changes:
None.
We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Soybeans ended the day lower with the deferred contracts posting the larger losses in general weakness across the grain complex. July futures remain above all major moving averages and the 100-day moving average is now acting as support. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections better than expected at 20.1 mb for the week ending June 5. Year-to-date soybean inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 81 mb which was up from 72 mb the previous week.
Drought conditions are still persistent across the soybean belt but were seen shrinking by 1% to 16%. This compares to just 2% during the same period last year.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 28,096 contracts which left them with a long position of 8,601 contracts. They sold 21,998 contracts of oil and 2,932 contracts of meal.
Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 28,096 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net long 8,601 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
Wheat began the week with double-digit losses for all three classes by the close as markets took a risk off posture. A combination of harvest pressure and a lower close for Matif wheat added weight to the market today. Additionally, rainfall anticipated this week in the US northern plains as well as for the second week of the outlook in China’s wheat growing areas added to weakness. Australian wheat growing regions received beneficial rains over the weekend too.
Weekly wheat inspections totaled 10.7 mb with 4.5 mb of that total for the 24/25 marketing year. For 25/26 total inspections are now at 6 mb, down 43% from last year and running well under the USDA’s estimated pace. They are forecasting 25/26 wheat exports will reach 800 mb, down 3% from the year prior.
SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian 2025 wheat production by 1.8 mmt to 82.8 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of 83 mmt. Additionally, IKAR has said Russian wheat export values finished last week at $225 per mt, unchanged from the week before.
This Thursday will feature the monthly WASDE report – the average pre-report estimate of 2025 US wheat production comes in at 1.924 bb, up from 1.921 bb in the May report. Of that total, winter wheat is expected to account for 1.389 bb vs 1.382 bb last month.
Analyst group APK-Inform has reduced their estimate of Ukraine’s 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 mmt. This is said to be mainly due to smaller corn and wheat harvests. The wheat production estimate in particular was revised down 0.1 mmt from last month to 21.7 mmt.
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
Changes:
The 693.75 target has been cancelled.
2026 Crop:
Plan A:
Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
Changes:
None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 654 contracts between May 27– June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 100,572 contracts.
2024 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
Changes:
None.
The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550 First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1333 contracts between May 27– June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 78,028 contracts.
2024 Crop:
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
Changes:
None.
This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B:
Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.
Details:
Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
Changes:
None.
2026 Crop:
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
Changes:
None.
First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Leading the Complex July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 10,441 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 20,077 contracts.
Corn futures continue to drift lower at midday, pulled down by improved weather forecasts which are calling for rainfall.
FAO-AMIS expects global corn production to increase by 3.8% to a record 1.26 billion tons during the 2025/26 season.
The Rosario Grain Exchange reported that Argentina could lose export business to the US if a trade agreement is made between the US, China and Vietnam.
Soybeans remain weaker at midday as weather patterns remain bearish this week.
The US and China are having trade talks in London today. An announcement on those discussions is expected later today or tomorrow.
According to China’s General Administration of Customs website, year-to-date Chinese soybean imports have fallen 0.7% to 37.108 mmt.
Brazil’s 2024/25 soy sales have reached 64% complete, down from 71.8% last year and below the 5-year average of 76.9% sold, according to Safras & Mercado.
All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday, pressured by weather forecasts showing rainfall moving back into the northern Plains.
The UN-FAO has lowered their global wheat stocks estimate by 6.8 mmt, to 310 mmt. If realized, this would be the lowest stockpile in the last 4 years.
SovEcon expects Russia’s wheat exports for the month of June to be down from 1.9 mmt last year to 1.7 mmt this year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
