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10-27 Opening Update: Grains Sharply Higher on Positive China Trade Talks

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading sharply higher with prices a penny off their highs from September. December is up 7 cents to $4.30-1/4 and March is up 7-1/2 cents to $4.44-1/2. The next target would be the 200-day moving average at 4.37 for December.

  • While traders still anticipate a very large crop to be harvested this season, export demand has been very strong, and there is a possibility that the USDA could increase demand on the balance sheet. Harvest is now past the halfway point.

  • With the continued government shutdown, we can only estimate fund activity. Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 6,000 contracts of corn and are likely buying back a significant amount today. Funds still hold a net short position.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since broken through resistance at the upper end of their short-term trading range near 424. However, prices were unable to break structural resistance near 430. The 430 level continues to serve as an area of strong technical resistance.

  • Soybean futures are sharply higher this morning thanks to news that a Chinese trade deal is likely. November soybeans are up 23-1/2 cents to $10.65-1/4 while March is up 19-1/2 cents to $10.93-1/4. December soybean meal is up $3.70 to $297.80 and December soybean oil is up 0.50 cents to 50.77 cents.

  • Overnight, US Treasury Secretary Bessent told the US Sunday new programs that when China’s Xi and President Trump announced a trade deal on Thursday, US farmers would feel very good about this season and the next few years. This immediately brought prices higher.

  • Over the past 5 trading days, funds are estimated to have bought 11,000 contracts of soybeans which would add to their already net long position. They were net buyers of both meal and bean oil.

Soybeans Retest Overhead Resistance: Soybean futures have continued to move higher as the market takes an optimistic stance regarding trade tensions with China. Prices are retesting overhead resistance near 1062. A second point of resistance can be found near 1080, a level that has not been traded above for over a year. Support can be found in a band of moving averages near 1026.

  • Wheat is significantly higher to start the day with December Chicago wheat up 13-1/2 cents to $5.26, KC wheat up 12-3/4 to $5.14-1/4, and Minn wheat up 9 cents to $5.66. Chicago wheat is nearly 35 cents off its recent low.

  • The IGC raised its estimate for global grain stockpiles on wheat and corn for the 25/26 season. Wheat stockpiles have been increased to 275 mmt from 270 mmt in a previous estimate.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their estimates for wheat planting progress in Argentina. Production is estimated at 22.0 mmt which would compare to 18.6 mmt last year. 5.3% of the crop has been harvested at this point.

Chicago Wheat Approaches Resistance: Wheat futures found support soon after breaking below the 502 level and have since continued to trend slightly higher. Prices are approaching key technical resistance near 517 at the 50-day moving average. Support can be found near 491, the near-term low.

KC Wheat Continues Higher, Approaches Resistance: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Prices have risen to approach technical resistance at the 50-day moving average, near 505. Should prices break above, a second point of technical resistance can be found near 518 in the 100-day moving average. Support has been established near 477.

Spring Wheat Finds Support, Reverses Higher: Spring wheat futures found support near 545 and reversed higher in a strong fashion. The first point of technical resistance can be found at the 50-day moving average, near 567.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-24 End of Day:  Grains Post Weekly Gains Ahead of Key U.S. – China Trade Talks

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and November option expiration.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended the week lower as traders took profits ahead of the weekend, with focus shifting to U.S.–China trade negotiations while harvest nears completion.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mixed on Friday but held up better than corn and soybeans. Strength in the broader stock market may have provided some spillover support, as CPI data showed consumer prices rising slightly less than expected.

  • To see the updated U.S. and South American weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw the end of the week profit taking and pressure from the November option expiration to close the week with light to moderate losses. December corn lost 4 ¾ cents to close at 423 ¼, while March corn fell 4 ¼ cents to 437. For the week, December corn traded ¾ cents higher.

  • Planting pace for the 2025-26 Argentina corn crop is off to a good start. Corn planting is projected to be 30% complete vs. 26% last week, 24% last year. The 5-year average is 26% for this time period.

  • The December corn spread sold were trading lower on the session. The spread has been helping the corn market work higher, but failing to push through resistance and possible increase in farmer selling likely triggered the pressure in the December contract.

  • Weather outlooks remain favorable into November, supporting steady harvest progress as producers move into the final stages of corn and soybean harvest.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures saw profit taking to end the week as the market is focused on trade negotiations between the US and China as US harvest is in the final stages. November soybeans lost 3 cents to 1041 ¾, while January soybeans sipped 1 ¾ cents to 1060 ¼. For the week, November soybeans gained 22 ¼ cents.

  • The November soybean options expired on Friday, and option expirations tend to bring additional volatility as prices move toward the areas of largest open interest for puts and calls, and that strike was the 1040 level for November soybeans.

  • Recent gains in U.S. soybean prices have narrowed the gap with Brazilian export offers, potentially erasing the competitive advantage U.S. beans had in global trade. This comes as traders await progress on trade discussions between the U.S. and China.

  • Markets will closely watch the U.S.–China trade talks taking place in Malaysia this weekend, with Presidents Trump and Xi scheduled to meet on Tuesday.

  • Brazil ag agency, CONAB, is forecasting another record harvest for Brazil production for the 2025-26 soybean crop. Soybean planting is in the early stages, but CONAB is expecting the planted area to grow 3.5% over last year to an equivalent of 121 million acres.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed on Friday but held up better than corn and soybeans. Strength in the broader stock market may have provided some spillover support, as CPI data showed consumer prices rising slightly less than expected. The Dow was up more than 550 points at midday. December Chicago wheat slipped ½ cent to 512 ½, Kansas City gained 1 ½ cents to 501 ½, and Minneapolis lost 1 cent to 557.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop has been 5.3% harvested so far. Early yield results are also said to be terrific. Nevertheless, the BAGE kept their estimate of the country’s crop unchanged at 22 mmt – this would still be 18% above last year. This compares with estimates from the Rosario Grain Exchange at 23 mmt and the USDA at 19.5 mmt.

  • Managed funds were estimated to have purchased 4,000 contracts of Chicago wheat yesterday, which would reduce their net short position to an estimated 93,000 contracts. Furthermore, open interest declined by about 2,000 contracts which would suggest short covering played a role in yesterday’s trade.

  • The Turkish wheat crop harvest for 2025 is expected to fall 13.9% year over year to 17.9 mmt. This estimate comes from TurkStat and is part of a broader trend of declining crop production for the nation.

  • FranceAgriMer has reported that the French soft wheat crop has been 57% planted as of Monday. This is a big jump of 30% over the week before. The current pace is also well above the 20% planted at this time a year ago and the five-year average pace of 43%.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 610.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 610.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 610.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 612.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 612.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 612.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 612.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 612.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

From ag-wx.com

From ag-wx.com

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10-24 Midday: Midday Grain Markets Drift Lower Ahead of Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures continued to push lower at midday as rapid harvest progress across the Midwest added slight pressure to the market. December corn is down at 4.24 ½.

  • Argentina’s corn planting is 34% complete, while France’s corn harvest has reached 75%—well ahead of the 63% average for this time of year.

  • The International Grains Council left its global crop outlook unchanged from last month but raised world corn stocks to 299 million tons, up from 294 million previously.

  • President Trump abruptly ended all trade talks with Canada overnight, sparking some concern in the markets.

  • Soybeans traded lower at midday Friday as U.S.–China discussions in Malaysia were set to begin, paving the way for the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting and adding to headline risk ahead of the weekend. Soybeans and soybean oil are lower, while soybean meal is posting slight gains. November soybeans are down at 10.42 ¾.

  • China confirmed President Xi’s attendance at the APEC summit this morning, easing some uncertainty surrounding the planned Trump–Xi meeting.

  • Rumors circulated yesterday that China may have been buying U.S. soybeans, but weaker Gulf bids suggested a lack of significant demand.

  • The International Grains Council offered some supportive news for the soybean market, cutting its estimate of global soybean stocks to 79 million tons from 83 million in the previous report.

  • Wheat markets trade higher at midday following yesterday’s positive rally, with slight pressure stemming from President Trump’s decision to cancel trade talks with Canada. December wheat is up at 5.14 ½.

  • Tough new sanctions on Russia were implemented by the U.S. and the EU, providing some market support yesterday. While the sanctions primarily target Russia’s oil industry, transportation disruptions due to fuel shortages are likely to worsen.

  • Unconfirmed rumors circulated yesterday that China was showing interest in wheat from Argentina and the EU, possibly due to heavy rains affecting parts of China.

  • The International Grains Council projects global wheat stocks to rise to 275 million tons, up from 270 million tons in the previous month.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-24 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Slightly Lower, Wheat Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading slightly lower to start the day after solid gains yesterday and are still trading above the 100-day moving average. December corn is down 1-1/2 cents to $4.26-1/2 and March is down 1 cent to $4.40-1/4.

  • Bloomberg estimates for the export sales report for the week ending October 16 that is postponed see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,275k tons which would compare to 4,184k tons a year ago.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated its crop progress for Argentina with 33.8% of the crop reportedly planted which would be slightly ahead of last year. The 25/26 corn planted area is maintained at 7.8 million hectares.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since risen and started to consolidate under structural resistance near 424. Should prices break above, and with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages now acting as technical support, the next point of technical resistance lies near 430.

  • Soybean futures are lower to start the day with November soybeans down 1-3/4 cents to $10.43 and March down 1-1/4 cents to $10.74. December soybean meal is up $0.20 to $292.50 and December bean oil is down 0.19 cents to 50.68 cents.

  • President Trump said he expects to reach a deal with China during the meeting with Xi on trade, soybeans, and potentially nuclear arms. This comes after a lot of waffling back and forth this week on whether or not a meeting would take place.

  • Bloomberg estimates for the postponed export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 700k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,200k tons. This would compare to 2,088k last year.

Soybeans Retest Overhead Resistance: Soybean futures found strength following dovish rhetoric regarding the current trade situation with China. Prices broke through strong technical resistance found in a band of major moving averages to retest the mid-September high. The next point of resistance can be found near 1062.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with December Chicago wheat up 3/4 cent to $5.13-3/4, KC wheat up 1-3/4 to $5.01-3/4, and Minn wheat down 1-3/4 cents to $5.56-1/4. Chicago wheat is nearly 20 cents off its recent low.

  • The IGC raised its estimate for global grain stockpiles on wheat and corn for the 25/26 season. Wheat stockpiles have been increased to 275 mmt from 270 mmt in a previous estimate.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their estimates for wheat planting progress in Argentina. Production is estimated at 22.0 mmt which would compare to 18.6 mmt last year. 5.3% of the crop has been harvested at this point.

Chicago Wheat Finds Support: Wheat futures found support soon after breaking below the 502 level and have since started to trend slightly higher. With support established near 491, the first point of technical resistance is near 517 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Reverses, Begins Trending Higher: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Structural support lies below, near 477. The first point of technical resistance can be found at the 50-day moving average, near 506.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 569 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found at the 100-day moving average, near 589. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-23 End of Day:  Grain Futures End Higher Amid Signs of Trade Progress with China

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the day modestly higher on continued strength from the weekly ethanol report and renewed trade optimism with China.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: News that President Trump will meet with China’s President Xi Jinping next Thursday to discuss a deal pushed soybean futures sharply higher.

  • 🌾 Wheat: The wheat markets showed strength today, fueled mostly by technical buying as traders continued to face a lack of fresh fundamental news. Prices ultimately closed higher on the day.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.  

  • The release of new export data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished Thursday with moderate gains, supported by trade optimism with China and a strong weekly ethanol report. December corn posted its highest daily close since September 15, gaining 5 cents to 428. March futures added 5 ½ cents to 441 ¼.

  • Confirmation by the White House that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi next Thursday helped boost market optimism on Thursday.

  • Wednesday’s ethanol production reported show strong ethanol production for the second straight week. For the week ending October 12, ethanol production reached 327 million gallons on the week, above expectation and marketing year high.

  • Corn futures pushed through a key area of technical resistance, which triggered some short covering during the session on Thursday. A strong technical close leaves the corn market set up for additional upside support going into Friday.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following news that President Trump will meet with China’s Xi next Thursday to discuss a trade deal. November soybeans were up 10 cents to $10.44-3/4 while March was up 12-1/4 to $10.75-1/4. December soybean meal was up $2.30 to $292.30 and December soybean oil gained 0.80 cents to 50.87 cents following gains in crude oil.

  • President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next Thursday in a bilateral meeting that will be part of a multi-country trip to Asia, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a briefing today.  On the Asian trip, Trump will also be meeting with leaders from Malaysia, Japan and Korea.

  • Bloomberg estimates for the postponed export sales report for the week ending October 16 see soybean sales in a range between 700k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,200k tons. This would compare to 2,088k last year. An unfounded rumor circulated today suggesting that China may have booked U.S. soybeans.

  • In South America, weather has remained unusually dry throughout central Brazil this month which has led to a quickened planting pace for soybeans. The forecast for the next 7 days remains dry with potential showers expected in two weeks from now.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with strength today, led by the Kansas City class. Dec Chi closed 9-1/4 cents higher at 513, KC was up 11-1/2 to 500, and MIAX gained 10-1/4 to 558. Today’s move appears to be largely technical in nature with speculative short covering. Wheat futures likely followed soybeans and crude oil higher after the U.S. announced new sanctions against two major Russian oil companies.

  • The International Grains Council has increased their estimate of world 25/26 wheat production by 8 mmt to 827 mmt. If realized, this would be a record high, up 1.1% compared to the previous season, and compares with the USDA estimate of 816.2 mmt. This revision was primarily driven by higher projections for Russian, U.S., and Argentine crops.

  • Algeria recently purchased milling wheat, however the amount may be far larger than the 50,000 mt tender. Reportedly, volumes could be as high as 500-600,000 mt, and the wheat was likely sourced from the Black Sea area. The purchase price is said to be around $259/mt on a CNF basis.

  • As of October 21, an estimated 43% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, down from 45% last week. Spring wheat areas in drought were unchanged from last week at 16%.

  • Due to the government shutdown, there was no export sales report today. However, a Bloomberg analyst survey suggests an average estimate of 563,000 mt of wheat export sales. The estimates ranged from 350-750,000 mt and compared to 533,000 mt from a year ago.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

      • A Plan B call option target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 612.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 612.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 612.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 612.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 612.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 612.50.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 612.50 vs December ‘25. A close above 612.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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10-23 Midday: Grains Remain Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn prices are higher at midday as December corn futures push to their highest level in a month at $4.25-1/2. March futures are up 1-1/2 cents to $4.37-1/4.

  • Ethanol daily production came in at 1.112 mbpd for the week ending October 17 with weekly production totaling 7.784 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were seen declining to their lowest level in nearly a year at 21.919 million barrels.

  • According to LSEG, October weather in South America has been beneficial to planting progress, but rains will be needed to help the crop advance with 20% of the growing area under drought.

  • Bloomberg estimates export sales for corn range between 800k and 1,600k for the week ending October 16. The average guess came in at 1,275k tons, which would compare to 4,184k tons a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, supported by US officials meeting with China in Malaysia this week. November soybeans are up 4-1/2 cents to $10.39-1/4, while March futures are up 6-1/2 cents to $10.56-1/2.

  • Abiove has raised their soybean production estimate for Brazil to 178.5 mmt. If realized this would be up from 171.8 mmt last season. The group also increased the country’s total exports from 109.5 mmt last year to 111 mmt this year.

  • Bloomberg estimated that soybean export sales for the week ending October 16 are between 700k and 2,000k tons. The average guess is 1,200k tons, which compares to 2,088k tons for the same week last year.

  • Wheat is finding strength at midday on support from the US and EU placing additional sanctions on Russia to help force a cease-fire with Ukraine. December Chicago is up 4-1/2 cents to $5.08-1/4, December KC is 6-1/2 cents higher to $4.95-00, and December Minneapolis is trading 4-3/4 higher to $5.25-00.

  • US prices remain competitive for export demand, which is helping to keep some level of support under wheat prices.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat are estimated between 350k tons and 750k tons according to a Bloomberg survey. The average guess is 563k tons, which compares to 533k ton through the same week a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-23 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s gains and are now trading at the very top of the recent trading range. December futures are up 1-1/2 cents to $4.24-1/2 and March is up 2 cents to $4.37-3/4.

  • U.S. corn harvest is estimated to be 60%–70% complete, though rains this week may slow progress. Basis levels around the country remain firm for harvest time, an encouraging sign of underlying demand.

  • Bloomberg estimates for the export sales report for the week ending October 16 that is postponed see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,275k tons which would compare to 4,184k tons a year ago.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since risen and started to consolidate under structural resistance near 424. Should prices break above, and with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages now acting as technical support, the next point of technical resistance lies near 430.

  • Soybean futures are higher this morning following mixed prices yesterday where front months were higher and deferred lower. November soybeans are up 3-3/4 cents to $10.38-1/2 and March is up 5-1/4 cents to $10.68-1/4. December soybean meal is down $0.70 to $289.30 and December bean oil is up 0.67 cents to 50.74 cents.

  • President Trump said he expects to reach a deal with China during the meeting with Xi on trade, soybeans, and potentially nuclear arms. This comes after a lot of waffling back and forth this week on whether or not a meeting would take place.

  • Bloomberg estimates for the postponed export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 700k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,200k tons. This would compare to 2,088k last year.

Soybeans Retest Overhead Resistance: Soybean futures found strength following dovish rhetoric regarding the current trade situation with China. Prices broke through strong technical resistance found in a band of major moving averages to retest the mid-September high. The next point of resistance can be found near 1062.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with December Chicago wheat up 1-1/2 cents to $5.05-1/4, KC wheat is up 3-1/4 cents to $4.91-3/4, and Minn wheat is up 1-3/4 cents to $5.49-1/2.

  • It has been difficult to find supportive news for the wheat complex, but competitively priced U.S. offerings have kept export inspections running 20% ahead of last year’s pace as of Monday’s data.

  • Bloomberg estimates see export sales for wheat for the week ending October 16 between 350k and 750k tons with an average guess of 563k tons. This would compare to 533k a year ago.

Chicago Wheat Finds Support: Wheat futures found support soon after breaking below the 502 level and have since started to trend slightly higher. With support established near 491, the first point of technical resistance is near 517 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Reverses, Begins Trending Higher: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Structural support lies below, near 477. The first point of technical resistance can be found at the 50-day moving average, near 506.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 569 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found at the 100-day moving average, near 589. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-22 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed as Corn Strengthens, Soybeans Steady, and Wheat Rebounds on Technical Buying

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished higher on Wednesday as buying strength lifted the front end of the market. Strong export demand and limited farmer selling continue to support the nearby contracts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed Wednesday, with strength in nearby contracts but weakness in deferred months.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. classes Wednesday, largely on technical buying amid a lack of fresh news.

  • To see updated U.S. and South America weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

  • The release of new crop progress data has been delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Updated figures will be issued following the resumption of government operations.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher on Wednesday as buying strength helped pull the front end of the corn market higher. December corn finished 3 ¼ cents higher to 423, and March futures gained 2 cents to 435 ¾.

  • Bull spreading remain a driver in the front end of the corn price as the Dec/March corn spread gained 1 ¼ cents to finish at –12 ½. This is the narrowest spread the has traded since April. The strong tone of demand in the export market and the lack of farmer selling is what is supporting the strength in the spread.

  • Thursday morning typically has export sales report released, but with the government shut down, that report is still going unreported. Analysts have given projections for corn sales with a range of 800,000 mt-2.0 MMT. The market has expected corn export demand to remain strong.

  • Restriction of barge flow on the Mississippi River due to low water levels can increase costs of transportation to the Gulf. Those increased costs will likely be reflected in basis levels along the river for cash prices.

  • After three straight sessions of gains, the U.S. Dollar Index encountered technical resistance on Wednesday, potentially signaling a near-term shift in momentum.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed today with gains in the front months but losses in deferred contracts. November soybeans gained 4 cents to $10.34-3/4 while March gained ¼ cent to $10.63 and November 2026 lost 2 cents to $10.70-3/4. December soybean meal gained $3.10 to $290 and December soybean oil lost 0.58 cents to 50.07 cents.

  • Back-month pressure stemmed from President Trump’s comments that the U.S. may consider curbs on exports to China involving U.S.-made software — from jets to laptops — in retaliation for Beijing’s latest rare earth export restrictions. The escalation could complicate near-term trade negotiations.

  • Early next week, Trump is set to meet with Japan’s new Prime Minister Takaichi where they will discuss potential U.S. investments. Takaichi will discuss purchases of US soybeans, pickups, and gasoline, and may invest as much as $550 billion in the US in exchange for lower auto tariffs.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest is estimated by Bloomberg polls to be 74% complete with a range between 61-80%. This would compare to last week’s survey guess of 60% and would compare to 81% from the USDA at this time a year ago.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with gains in all three U.S. futures classes today. Without much in the way of fresh news to drive the market, this was likely a technical move higher. Dec Chi was up 3-1/2 cents at 503-3/4, KC gained 3-1/2 cents to 488-1/2, and MIAX closed 3 cents higher at 547-3/4.  

  • Argentine wheat is reportedly at a significant discount to the US. Their FOB values are said to be near $208 to $210 per mt, which is about $16 to $18 below HRW offers at the US Gulf. This will likely limit upside for the US market. Furthermore, Argentina’s wheat harvest is set to begin in November, with a potential record 23 mmt crop anticipated.

  • U.S. winter wheat planting is estimated to be more than 75% complete, though progress could slow as a storm system brings rain across the Southern Plains Thursday, with lighter showers expected in the Great Lakes region.

  • Northern China has recently seen excess heavy rain. This is not only affecting harvest progress and quality of spring-sown crops but is also causing concern about winter wheat planting. Their winter wheat planting typically begins in October. According to China’s national climate center, the northern provinces of Henan and Shandong have had the rainiest season in 60 years.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 594 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.25.

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 594.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 591.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 591.50.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 563 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 618 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 618.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 618 vs December ‘25. A close above 618 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:
      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 618 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B call option target has been lowered to 618.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 628.75 vs December ‘25. A close above 628.75 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B call target has been added.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

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10-22 Midday: Grains Gain at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher at midday, supported by continued strength in crude oil prices overnight. December wheat is up at 4.22.

  • Trade negotiations with India continue to progress toward completion, with reports suggesting India may ease restrictions on GMO crops, potentially opening the door for U.S. corn imports likely destined for ethanol production.

  • Two key Chinese provinces, Henan and Shandong — which together account for roughly 30% of the nation’s total grain output — have experienced the heaviest rainfall in 60 years. The government is formulating a plan to help producers harvest crops before conditions deteriorate further.

  • Ethanol production rose to 327 million gallons in the week ended October 17, up from 316 million gallons the previous week and 3% higher than the YA. Output exceeded trade expectations, with an estimated 111 million bushels of corn used in the production process.

  • Soybean futures are trading higher at midday despite overnight comments from President Trump regarding the upcoming U.S.–China meeting. While he noted the meeting could be beneficial for both countries, he also acknowledged it may not take place. Soybeans and soybean meal are firmer, while soybean oil trades lower. November soybeans trader higher at 10.36 ½.

  • The status of U.S.–China trade negotiations remain uncertain. Treasury Secretary Bessent is traveling to Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials in an effort to lay the groundwork for a potential agreement both sides can present as a success. Without such progress, the planned meeting at the APEC Summit appears unlikely to take place.

  • CONAB estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 21.7% complete, ahead of last year’s pace of 17.6% but trailing the five-year average of 27.7%. Rainfall is in the forecast across key growing regions over the next two weeks, which could slow fieldwork but offer much-needed moisture for early-seeded areas.

  • Trade discussions with India continue to make progress, with reports indicating the country has agreed to increase purchases of U.S. soybean meal.

  • Wheat has firmed at midday, drawing support from strength in the broader grain complex, with little new market-moving information. December wheat moves higher trading at 5.03 ½.

  • U.S. and French wheat prices remain closely aligned, but Argentine quotes are easing in anticipation of a sizable harvest starting next month, potentially intensifying global export competition.

  • The scheduled Trump–Putin summit over the next two weeks appears uncertain after initial talks reportedly broke down, raising doubts about whether the meeting will take place.

  • U.S. winter wheat planting has progressed to an estimated 75–80% completion.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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10-22 Opening Update: Mixed Trade Continues For Grains

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning with December up 3/4 of a cent to $4.20-1/2 while March is also up 3/4 of a cent to $4.34-1/2. 

  • Export inspections remain a bright spot for the corn market, with Monday’s totals holding 61% ahead of the same period last year.

  • U.S. corn harvest is estimated to be 60%–70% complete, though rains this week may slow progress. Basis levels around the country remain firm for harvest time, an encouraging sign of underlying demand.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since risen to retest overhead structural resistance near 424. Should prices break above, and with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages now acting as technical support, the next point of technical resistance lies near 430.

  • Soybean futures are slightly higher this morning with November soybeans are up 3-1/4 cents to $10.34 and March is up 2-3/4 cents to $10.65-1/2. December soybean meal is down $0.70 to $286.20 and December soybean oil is up 0.11 cents to 50.75 cents.

  • In comments yesterday, President Trump suggested that his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi may not occur. The ongoing back-and-forth, coupled with the lack of data during the government shutdown, has kept soybean traders hesitant to extend risk.

  • Soybean oil futures were pressured Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reiterated its opposition to reallocating renewable volume obligations, a decision that the EPA has yet to announce.

Soybeans Retest Overhead Resistance: Soybean futures found strength following dovish rhetoric regarding the current trade situation with China. Prices broke through strong technical resistance found in a band of major moving averages to retest the mid-September high. The next point of resistance can be found near 1062.

  • Wheat is trading mixed to start the day, December Chicago wheat is unchanged at $5.00-1/4, KC wheat is up a 1/4 cent to $4.85-1/4, and Minneapolis wheat is up a 1/2 cent to $5.45-1/4.

  • Gold futures suffered their largest one-day drop in prices yesterday, adding pressure to other commodity markets. The decline followed a surge to new all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce earlier in the week.

  • It has been difficult to find supportive news for the wheat complex, but competitively priced U.S. offerings have kept export inspections running 20% ahead of last year’s pace as of Monday’s data.

Chicago Wheat Finds Support: Wheat futures found support soon after breaking below the 502 level. With support established near 491, the first point of technical resistance is near 517 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Reverses, Begins Trending Higher: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Structural support lies below, near 477. The first point of technical resistance can be found at the 50-day moving average, near 507.verage.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 570 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found at the 100-day moving average, at 591. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.