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6-17 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher as Wheat Leads on Technical Strength; Soy Extends Rally, Corn Follows

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended higher Tuesday, supported by strength across the grain complex, though July bucked the trend, slipping 4 cents.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher for a third straight session, supported by a drop in crop ratings and a drier extended forecast. Soybean oil snapped its sharp rally with a modest loss, while meal finished higher. Normal trading limits will resume tomorrow across the complex.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed with strong gains across all classes, despite a firmer U.S. dollar. Support came from higher Matif wheat, weaker U.S. crop ratings, and likely technical buying as momentum indicators like stochastics and RSI trend higher.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn was higher to end Tuesday’s session, lifted by the wheat market strengthening today. The July contract was the only loser, down 4 cents, to close at $4.3150.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report confirmed U.S. corn planting is complete, with crop conditions improving 1 point to 72% good-to-excellent — matching last year’s rating.

  • Global corn supplies for 2025/26 are projected to rise on improved yields, though the overall balance remains tight due to lower beginning stocks and stronger demand.

  • Corn export inspections totaled 1.673 mmt, down from 1.728 mmt last week, but up from 1.380 mmt last year. Top destinations were Japan and Mexico.

  • AgRural reported that, as of June 12, Brazil’s corn harvest is 5.2% complete, up from 1.9% the week prior but down from 21% finished at this time last year.eek last year.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465.  On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A new cash sale target of 1114 has posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day following a decline in crop ratings and drier weather in the extended forecast. Soybean oil ended its massive run today with a small loss, while soybean meal closed higher. The soy complex will go back to normal limits tomorrow.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions down 2 points to 66% good-to-excellent — below both last week and the average trade estimate. Planting is 93% complete, with 84% emerged, slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 83%.

  • USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations for 2025/26. Export sales remain slow, as the U.S. is currently outside its prime soybean export window.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 216k tons as of June 12, which compared to 559k the previous week and 341k tons a year ago at this time. Primary destinations were to Germany, Japan, and Mexico.

July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk. 

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed with strong gains across all classes, despite a firmer U.S. dollar. Support came from higher Matif wheat, weaker U.S. crop ratings, and likely technical buying as momentum indicators, like stochastics and RSI, trend higher.

  • USDA’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat 93% headed, with conditions slipping 2 points to 52% good-to-excellent. Harvest is 10% complete — well behind last year’s 25% and the 5-year average of 16%. Spring wheat is 89% emerged and 4% headed, with conditions improving 4 points to 57% good-to-excellent.

  • LSEG commodity research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 796.44 mmt, which compares with the 24/25 estimate of 798 mmt. Additionally, they are projecting world wheat ending stocks will decline 5.1% to 248.7 mmt.

  • Russian wheat export values are reported by IKAR to have declined last week, due to improving harvest estimates. Through July delivery, new crop Russian wheat ended last week at $222 per mt FOB, down $3 from the week before. However, SovEcon estimated new crop offers at $225 to $229 per mt, which would be steady to down $1 from the prior week.

  • Romania may harvest 12.2 MMT of wheat in 2025/26, according to Argus — the largest since 1997 — up from 10.2 MMT this season on higher yields and expanded acreage.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Remains Rangebound
First downside support should appear at last week’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 535.75 support.  As long as the September contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities.  If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 549 support. As long as the July ’26 contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Recent Highs
uly spring wheat futures closed last week just below the previous Friday’s close of 635.25.  A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target.  Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk. 

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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6-17 Midday: Soybeans Follow Corn and Wheat Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 432.75 -2
DEC ’25 438.75 3.75
DEC ’26 471 4.25
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1071.75 2
NOV ’25 1067 6.5
NOV ’26 1086 8.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 545.5 9
SEP ’25 561.25 9
JUL ’26 618.5 7.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 544.75 8.75
SEP ’25 559 8.25
JUL ’26 616.5 7
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 621.75 -1
SEP ’25 635.25 -0.75
SEP ’26 674.75 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6075 -14.75
Crude Oil
AUG ’25 72.25 2
Gold
AUG ’25 3404.8 -12.5

  • Corn futures are relatively flat from earlier price action at midday. July and December contracts continue to hang below the $4.40 level as weather forecasts lean favorable for growing conditions.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn planting in the US is now complete. Crop conditions improved by 1% to 72% good-to-excellent.

  • Global corn supply is estimated to be greater as favorable weather is leading to sufficient growing conditions. However, with lower beginning stocks and higher consumption, world supply for 2025/26 corn is still seen as tight.

  • Soybeans have reversed higher at midday on support from the rest of the soy-complex and declining crop conditions.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting in the US at 93% done, up from 92% last year and the 5-year average of 84%. Ratings were seen slipping 2% to 66% good-to-excellent.

  • May NOPA crush was a record for the month at 192.83 mb but was still below the average trade estimates.

  • Chicago and HRW futures are higher at midday, supported by global production cuts and falling crop conditions.

  • Winter wheat ratings were seen falling 2% to 52% good-to-excellent in yesterday’s Crop Progress report. Winter wheat harvest is seen at 10% complete. Spring wheat improved 4% to 57% good-to-excellent.

  • Winter rapeseed harvest in France is seen reaching 4.2 mmt, which if realized would be 9.4% higher than last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-17 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower in Quiet Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 434.75 0
DEC ’25 436.5 1.5
DEC ’26 469.5 2.75

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1069.25 -0.5
NOV ’25 1059.75 -0.75
NOV ’26 1077 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 539.5 3
SEP ’25 554.5 2.25
JUL ’26 613.75 2.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 537.75 1.75
SEP ’25 552.5 1.75
JUL ’26 609.5 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 620.5 -2.25
SEP ’25 633.5 -2.5
SEP ’26 674.75 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6062.25 -27.5

Crude Oil

AUG ’25 71.66 1.41

Gold

AUG ’25 3414.6 -2.7

  • Corn is slightly higher to start the day following yesterday’s sharp decline. July futures have found some support at the $4.30 level but have struggled to rally alongside soybeans and wheat recently.

  • The past 6 to 10 days have seen above normal rainfall which caused a reduction in drought areas in the Corn Belt, but forecasts are beginning to turn dry, especially in the West. A hot and dry July and August are still in the forecast.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the corn crop’s good to excellent rating improving by one point from last week to 72%. The entire crop has been planted, and 94% is now emerged.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower after July futures rallied nearly to $10.80 yesterday thanks to extreme bullishness in soybean oil. Yesterday, soybean oil closed expanded limit up, so the whole soy complex will have expanded limits again today. So far, soybean meal and oil are slightly lower.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush showed May soybean crush at 192.83 million bushels which was below most trade estimates but was higher than the previous month and was the strongest May crush ever.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions decline by 2 points to 66% good to excellent. This was also 2 points below the average trade estimate. 93% of the crop is planted and 84% is emerged, slightly above the 5-year average of 83% at this time.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning following a mixed bag in Crop Progress but one that still showed crop ratings well behind their average years of 76% good to excellent. Funds hold a very large net short position making the susceptible to short covering.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 389k tons which compared to 324k last week and 412k a year ago. Top destinations were to Nigeria, the Philippines, and Thailand.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw winter wheat ratings fall by 2 points to 52% good to excellent while spring wheat improved by 4 points to 57% good to excellent. 10% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-16 End of Day: Soybeans Continue Higher Monday, Corn and Wheat Lower 

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week on a disappointing note, pressured by weakness in wheat and a reversal in crude oil. 

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher, led by deferred contracts, as Friday’s limit-up move in soybean oil fueled strength across the soy complex and triggered expanded limits today. Soybean oil surged again, gapping higher and closing up 4.50 cents in July, while weaker soybean meal limited additional upside. 

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted modest losses across all classes, pressured by winter wheat harvest progress, a mostly benign U.S. weather outlook, and reports that Iran may be open to negotiations with Israel, easing geopolitical concerns and weighing on crude oil. 

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section. 

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn was disappointing today, following the lower wheat market and reversal in crude oil. The July contract closed nearly 10 cents lower to start the week while September and December futures were down 8 cents and 7 cents respectively. 

  • Weekly export inspections totaled 66 mb, near the high end of expectations and well above the pace needed to hit USDA’s 2.650 bb target. Year-to-date inspections stand at 2.049 bb, up 29% from last year. 

  • This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is widely expected to show corn conditions either unchanged from last week at 71% good-to-excellent or a slight increase to 72% good-to-excellent.  

  • Patria reported that Brazil’s corn harvest is now 5.5% complete, well below last year’s pace of 14% during the same week last year.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465.  On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,977 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 164,020 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with the deferred months posting the majority of gains following Friday’s trade in which limit up soybean oil bolstered the soy complex and led to expanded limits today. While soybean meal was lower and keeping soybeans from rallying further, soybean oil took advantage of its expanded limits, gapped higher and closed up 4.50 cents in the July contract. The soy complex will have expanded limits again tomorrow. 

  • NOPA reported a May crush of 192.83 mb, just below the average estimate of 193.52 mb. Still, it marked a record for May and was up from 190.23 mb in April. 

  • Friday’s Renewable Fuels Association announcement set biomass-based diesel quotas at 3.35 billion gallons for 2025, 5.61 billion for 2026, and 5.86 billion for 2027 — an extremely bullish signal for soybean oil, which has gained 7.50 cents over the past two sessions. 

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buying 17,038 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 25,639 contracts. They sold 7,222 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 24,768 contracts as of June 10 and bought 9,909 contracts of meal which left them short 86,808 contracts. 

July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk. 

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,724 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net long 86,005 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses across the board, perhaps following crude oil lower after news outlets reported that Iran is willing to negotiate with Israel to bring an end to the hostilities. Additionally, winter wheat harvest pressure and a largely non-threatening U.S. weather forecast add weight to the shoulders of the market.  

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 14.3 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 22 mb, which is down 17% from the year prior. Inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecast at 825 mb, up 1% from the year before.  

  • CFTC data showed managed funds were net buyers of wheat for the fourth straight week, covering 6,500 contracts in Chicago and 3,000 in Kansas City. The total net short across all three wheat classes has narrowed from a record 235,000 contracts to about 183,000. 

  • Scattered rains fell in Argentina’s central and northern wheat-growing areas over the weekend, aiding early development. Western Europe, the Black Sea region, and parts of China also saw rain, though it may be too late to significantly help crops there. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Remains Rangebound
First downside support should appear at last week’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75. 

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 17,038 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net long 25,639 contracts. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,064 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 74,964 contracts. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • None. Another few weeks before price targets may post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Recent Highs
uly spring wheat futures closed last week just below the previous Friday’s close of 635.25.  A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target.  Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk. 

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,927 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 14,150 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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6-16 Midday: Grains Mostly Lower at Midday Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 435.25 -9.25
DEC ’25 435.75 -7.25
DEC ’26 468.25 -3.25
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1067.25 -2.5
NOV ’25 1056 1.25
NOV ’26 1075.5 3.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 536 -7.75
SEP ’25 551.75 -7.5
JUL ’26 609.5 -6.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 535 -5.75
SEP ’25 549.75 -5.25
JUL ’26 603 -10
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 626.25 -8
SEP ’25 638.75 -6.5
SEP ’26 674.75 -7.5
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6102.5 71
Crude Oil
AUG ’25 68.68 -2.61
Gold
AUG ’25 3420.2 -32.6

  • Corn futures are lower to start the week, with July leading the decline as a continued non-threatening weather forecast weighs on the market.

  • Crude oil futures reversed lower after early gains, as traders grow confident the Israel-Iran conflict will remain contained.

  • Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is 5.5% complete, well behind last year’s pace of 14% for the same week.

  • Soybean futures are mixed this morning, supported by a sharp rally in soybean oil.

  • Soybean oil futures gapped higher to start the week following Friday’s EPA announcement of significantly higher biofuel blending mandates over the next two years.

  • NOPA crush data due later today is expected to show a record-high May crush of 193.5 mb, nearly 10 mb above May 2024.

  • Wheat futures are lower across the board to start the week as harvest gains momentum across the U.S. Plains.

  • This afternoon’s crop progress report may reflect expanding dryness in areas like Montana and Idaho, though recent rains elsewhere could offset declines and keep national ratings roughly steady.

  • If tensions escalate in the Middle East or Black Sea region, traders may look to cover part of their sizable net-short position—currently estimated at over 160,000 contracts across KC and Chicago wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-16 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher to Start Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 439.25 -5.25
DEC ’25 438.25 -4.75
DEC ’26 469.5 -2

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1071 1.25
NOV ’25 1057.25 2.5
NOV ’26 1073.5 1.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 537.25 -6.5
SEP ’25 553.25 -6
JUL ’26 611 -5.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 536 -4.75
SEP ’25 550.5 -4.5
JUL ’26 615 2

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 631.25 -3
SEP ’25 642.25 -3
SEP ’26 682.25 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6060.5 29

Crude Oil

AUG ’25 70.76 -0.53

Gold

AUG ’25 3439.7 -13.1

  • Corn is trading lower this morning taking back a portion of Friday’s gains that were caused by escalated global tensions. Weather has not been dry enough yet to give corn prices the boost it has needed.

  • The past 6 to 10 days have seen above normal rainfall which caused a reduction in drought areas in the Corn Belt, but forecasts are beginning to turn dry, especially in the West. A hot and dry July and August are still in the forecast.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn by 9,977 contracts which increased their net short position to 164,020 contracts. This position is getting dangerously short if conditions turn dry and could turn into short covering.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning on continued momentum from Friday after biodiesel quotas for 2026 and ’27 came in significantly higher than expected causing a limit up move in soybean oil. Soybean oil is sharply higher again today after gapping up while meal is lower.

  • May soybean crush is seen at 193.8 million bushels which would be 5.5% above May of last year and would be 1.9% higher than a month ago. Oil stocks are expected to be lower than a year ago.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buying 17,038 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 25,639 contracts. They sold 7,222 contracts of bean oil as of June 10 and bought 9,909 contracts of meal.

  • Wheat is trading lower to start the week after rebounding sharply on Friday posting gains of over 17 cents in the July contract. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel were a large reason, and the fighting will likely continue for now.

  • Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are that crop conditions may fall slightly following an increase in drought conditions in the West.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat as of June 10 by 6,561 contracts which left them short 94,011 contracts. They bought 3,064 contracts of KC wheat which decreased their net short position to 74,964 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-13 End of Day: Grains Rally on Geopolitical Tensions and Biofuel Boost

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week mixed as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a surge in crude oil triggered short covering, while strong export demand and bullish biofuel blending targets added support. However, favorable crop weather and anticipation of the upcoming Planted Acreage report provide upside resistance.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rallied sharply into the weekend, driven by stronger-than-expected biomass diesel quotas that lifted biofuel demand prospects and pushed prices toward key resistance levels. Support also came from expectations for a solid NOPA crush report, while upcoming Midwest rainfall added upside resistance.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures surged to end the week, fueled by spillover strength from soybeans and geopolitical tensions after Israel’s reported strike on Iran, prompting short covering and risk-driven buying. Rising drought concerns in U.S. wheat regions and ongoing planting progress in Argentina also added underlying support.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Money flowed into the grain markets to end the week, and corn futures followed as futures traded higher to end the week. July futures traded 2 cents higher on the week, breaking a two-week losing streak. December corn finished the week 6 ¼ cents lower.

  • Geopolitical tensions added uncertainty to the markets as Israel launched an attack against Iranian nuclear sites during the overnight. The crude oil market traded sharply higher and helped trigger some short covering in the corn market. Traders will be watching the headlines closely over the weekend to see if there will be any escalation in the conflict.

  • July futures saw additional short covering and follow-through buying after Thursday’s close and supportive USDA report. Old crop corn carryover is at 1.365 BB, supported by strong export demand for U.S. corn. Expectations are for the carryout number to be tightened in future reports as current export sales are at 96% of the market year total on the day of the June report.

  • Strong buying in the soybean market helped support corn futures with the announcement of the EPA on the biofuels blending mandate targets. The blending target came in higher than expected at 5.6 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.86 billion gallons for 2027. This is up significantly from the current target of 3.35 billion gallons for 2025. Soybean oil traded the price limit higher on the session, fueling the soybean rally.

  • The corn market will be focused on global headlines and weather going into the end of June. Forecasts are staying favorable for crops during this time frame, limiting the corn rally potential. The June Planted Acreage report is 17 days away and will be the report likely to set the direction of the corn market into the summer months.

Corn Futures Finish at the Top End of a Nine-Day Trading Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465. On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: From USDA – US corn total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed substantially higher heading into the weekend after new biomass diesel quotas came in higher than previously rumored. The November contract will now look to break above the first resistance level around $10.60 with the second resistance around $10.65 after today’s newfound strength.

  • The Renewable Fuels Association released the new biomass quotas today, which now stand to be 3.35 billion gallons for 2025, 5.61 billion gallons for 2026, and 5.86 billion gallons for 2027.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange slightly bumped their soybean production estimate for Argentina to 50.3 mmt, up from their previous estimate of 50 mb. The group also pegged soybean harvest in the country at 93.2% done.

  • Monday will be the release of the May NOPA Crush report. Average analyst guesses are at 193.519 mb, which if realized, would be up 1.7% from the month prior and 5.4% higher than May of last year.

  • Rainfall is expected over the next 7 days, with a majority of the soybean belt seeing anywhere from 0.25” to 4”. Higher totals are expected South of the I-80 line into Missouri and the Delta region.

July soybeans posts highest close since May 14
Strong weekly close, yet July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk.

Above: From USDA – US soybean total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed out the week sharply higher as it followed strong gains in the soy complex. Israel is reported to have launched attacks on Iran overnight, targeting their nuclear infrastructure. This led to a mix of short covering and speculative buying interest as war premium was factored back into the trade.

  • As reported by the USDA, as of June 10, an estimated 15% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up from 12% a week ago. Drought also expanded in spring wheat areas by 1% to 20% for the same time period. At this time last year, only 3% of spring wheat acres were in drought.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina advanced 15% last week to 38.5% complete. A storm system moving across northeastern Argentina today and tomorrow should bring beneficial moisture to the newly planted wheat, but will likely delay harvest of corn and soybeans as well.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Finishes the Week with a Bullish Daily Reversal
The July ended a four-day losing streak, erased three days of losses, and closed back above the 50-day on the front month continuous following today’s outside bullish daily reversal. That reversal now establishes first downside support at today’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • None. Another few weeks before price targets may post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Last Week’s High
July spring wheat futures closed just below last Friday’s close of 635.25. A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target. Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 6-10 day temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA.

Above: US 6-10 day precipitation outlook courtesy of NOAA.

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6-13 Midday: Grain Market Strengthens at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 442 3.5
DEC ’25 441.25 0.75
DEC ’26 469.75 -0.75
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1064.75 22.5
NOV ’25 1047.25 20
NOV ’26 1064.75 13.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 540.5 14
SEP ’25 554.5 12.75
JUL ’26 611.5 10.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 536 13.25
SEP ’25 549.5 12
JUL ’26 607 9.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 630 9.25
SEP ’25 640.5 8.75
SEP ’26 680 7.5
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6063.75 -39.25
Crude Oil
AUG ’25 70.87 4.23
Gold
AUG ’25 3448.3 45.9

  • Corn edges higher, lifted by the wheat market and war tensions increasing between Israel and Iran.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left their corn production estimate for Argentina unchanged at 49 mmt, down from 51.6 mmt last year.

  • Ukraine has completed corn sowing for the 2025 season. According to the farm ministry, there are an estimated 4.031 million hectares of corn sown.

  • Soybeans are bouncing at midday on newfound strength related to updated biomass diesel quotas for 2025, 2026 and 2027.

  • The Renewable Fuels Association released the new biomass quotas today, which now stand to be at 3.35 billion gallons for 2025, 5.61 billion gallons for 2026, and 5.86 billion gallons for 2027.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange slightly raised their soybean production forecast for Argentina from 50 mm to 50.3 mmt.

  • Monday will be the release of the May NOPA crush report. Average analyst guesses are at 193.519 mb, which if realized, would be up 1.7% from April and up 5.4% from May of 2024.

  • All three wheat classes are higher at midday, supported by Israel attacking Iran overnight, leading to further tensions between the two countries.

  • BAGE reported that wheat seeding in Argentina is now seen at 38.5% complete, up from 23.6% last week.

  • The USDA reported that the Taiwan Flour Miller’s Association bought an estimated 95,450 mt of milling wheat from the U.S. yesterday.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-13 Opening Update: Grains Holding Following Israel Attack on Iran

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 435.5 -3
DEC ’25 439 -1.5
DEC ’26 468.75 -1.75

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1044.75 2.5
NOV ’25 1027.25 0
NOV ’26 1052.5 1.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 531.5 5
SEP ’25 546.5 4.75
JUL ’26 604 3

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 526.75 4
SEP ’25 540.75 3.25
JUL ’26 603 5.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 623.25 2.5
SEP ’25 633.75 2
SEP ’26 675 2.5

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6043.5 -59.5

Crude Oil

AUG ’25 71.78 5.14

Gold

AUG ’25 3437.8 35.4

  • Dalian corn futures moved lower, while the USDA pegged U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.365 billion bushels and 2025/26 at 1.750 billion, citing stronger 2024/25 exports.

  • Global 2025/26 corn ending stocks were trimmed to 275.2 mmt from 277.8 mmt in May; China’s 2024/25 corn imports were lowered by 1 mmt to 7 mmt, but 2025/26 was left unchanged at 10 mmt.

  • Weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 791,000 mt, bringing total commitments to 65.9 mmt vs 52.3 mmt a year ago; the USDA’s projection is 67.31 mmt, up from 58.23 mmt last year.

  • Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, and palm oil futures were all higher, with support from broader commodity strength and anticipation that next week the EPA could announce new biofuel policy.

  • The USDA estimated U.S. soybean carryout at 350 million bushels for 2024/25 and 295 million for 2025/26, though some see 2025/26 carryout closer to 500 million due to weaker export expectations; world 2025/26 ending stocks were raised to 125.3 mmt from 124.3 mmt in May.

  • Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were just 61,000 mt, with unknown sales down 260,000 mt; total commitments are at 48.7 mmt vs 43.7 mmt last year, with the USDA’s annual goal at 50.35 mmt.

  • The USDA held its U.S. wheat crop estimate steady at 1.921 billion bushels and projected 2024/25 carryout at 841 million bushels and 2025/26 at 898 million, with the year-over-year decline driven by higher export expectations.

  • Global 2025/26 wheat ending stocks were lowered to 262.7 mmt from 265.7 mmt in May, reflecting tighter global supply.

  • Weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 389,000 mmt; total commitments reached 5.9 mmt vs 4.8 mmt last year, with the USDA’s export projection at 22.45 mmt vs 22.3 mmt last year.

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6-12 End of Day: Grains Mixed After Uneventful WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended slightly higher on Thursday, supported by a lower-than-expected old crop carryout in the USDA’s WASDE report due to stronger export demand. However, gains were limited by weakness in other grains and uncertainty around upcoming biofuel blending targets.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean prices closed lower as traders reacted to a mostly neutral WASDE report that made minimal changes to U.S. and global balance sheets, while a bearish weather outlook added pressure. Slight increases in global carryout and Brazil’s production estimate also contributed to the weakness.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures were mixed following a neutral USDA WASDE report that held U.S. production and stocks mostly steady but showed slight global stock declines. Harvest pressure and shifting trader focus to field activity weighed on Chicago and Kansas City markets, while Minneapolis found modest support.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Rally Watch: With five sales recommendations since December 30 at an average price of around 492, there’s a solid cushion in place to continue aiming for a weather rally for next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the session slightly higher on Thursday after the USDA report lowered old crop corn carryout due to stronger than anticipated export demand. Weakness in other grains limited the corn market’s upside. Going into Friday, July corn futures are trading 4 cents lower on the week; Dec corn futures were 8 ¾ cents lower.

  • USDA released the June WASDE report on Thursday morning. While the June report is typically a quiet report, the USDA did raise the current export forecast to 2.650 BB, lowering 2024-25 marketing year carryout to 1.365 BB. This was lower than analyst expectations and helped support the old crop futures in the session.

  • The USDA released the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 5, exporters reported new sales of 791,000 MT (31.2 mb). This total was down 26% from last week, but still within expectations. Japan was the largest buyer on U.S. corn last week.

  • The Trump administration announced the EPA has completed their review of the biofuels blending requirements and should announce the targets for 2025-26 on Friday. Concerns that the total could be less than expected may limit corn futures.

  • With the USDA report behind the market, the focus of the corn market will shift back to weather, and the planted acres report at the end of the month.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower on the day following an overall neutral WASDE report, which showed very few changes to the soybean outlook both in the U.S. and globally.

  • June’s WASDE report showed minor changes for soybeans, but did increase the 2025/26 world carryout number from 124.3 mmt in May to 125.3 mmt. Ending stocks were left unchanged for 2024/25 at 350 MB, along with 2025/26 ending stocks at 295 mb.

  • Production estimates for 2024 soybeans in Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged from the month prior in today’s report at 169.0 mmt and 49.0 mmt, respectively.

  • Conab raised their soybean production forecast to 169.6 mmt, up from 168.34 mmt last month and slightly higher than the USDA’s 169.0 mmt number.

  • The weather outlook over the next week remains bearish for much of the soybean belt as chances of rain step back in, which may add further downward pressure to prices.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures posted losses, while Minneapolis made modest gains. All eyes were focused on this morning’s USDA Supply and Demand report, which was relatively neutral overall. Traders have likely moved their attention back to winter wheat harvest, which is adding pressure to those markets.

  • On today’s WASDE report, the USDA kept their 25/26 all wheat production estimate unchanged from May at 1.921 mb – the trade was anticipating a slight increase. U.S. ending stocks for 24/25 were kept steady at 841 mb. However, for the 25/26 marketing year, ending stocks decreased 25 mb from last month to 898 mb due to higher exports.

  • Globally, 24/25 wheat carryout declined from 265.2 mmt in May to 264 mmt today. For 25/26, there was also a decrease from 265.7 mmt to 262.8 mmt.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 14.3 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week at 4.3 mb were well under the 15.38 mb pace needed per week to reach their 25/26 export goal of 800 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments have reached 217 mb, up 22% from last year.

  • The Rosario Exchange in Argentina has reduced their nation’s 25/26 wheat production estimate from 21 mmt to 20.7 mmt. The reason for the decline is said to be a smaller planted area due to recent heavy rains that caused flooding issues.

  • Coceral has increased their estimate of 2025 European Union soft wheat production to 143.1 mmt from the March estimate of 137.2 mmt. For reference, the 2024 crop totaled 126.3 mmt. The reason for the increase was cited as favorable weather in France, Spain, and southeastern Europe.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 8-14 day temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA.