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Opening Update: May 4, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 585.5
-3
DEC ’23 527
-3.5
DEC ’24 519.25
-1.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1413
-4.5
NOV ’23 1265
-7.25
NOV ’24 1235.5
-3.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 635.75
-4
SEP ’23 647
-3.75
JUL ’24 683
-1.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 777.25
-7.75
SEP ’23 770.75
-7.25
JUL ’24 760.75
-2

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 798.75
-4.75
SEP ’23 805.5
-1.5
SEP ’24 762.5
2.5

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4092
-15.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 68.46
-0.09

Gold

AUG ’23 2069.7
13.5

  • Corn is a bit lower this morning after rallying yesterday following an alleged assassination attempt by Ukraine on Vladimir Putin and attack on the Kremlin. No one was hurt and it is unclear who was behind the attack.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report for corn are between  negative 300k and 900k tons with an average of 175k. Net sales cancellations could pressure prices.

  • Ethanol stocks have fallen by 3.9% to 23.363 mln bbl while analysts were expecting 24.423. Plant production is at 0.976 m b/d vs the survey average of 0.963 m

  • Unfavorable weather and harvest delays have cut Argentinian corn production with an average estimate of 34.6 mmt, down 1% from the previous update. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning but essentially have gone nowhere in the past week despite plenty of volatility. Both soybean meal and oil are lower while crude oil is slightly lower.

  • Estimates for today’s USDA export sales report in soybeans are between 100k and 500k tons with an average of 332k. Good exports for soybeans may begin to trend slightly higher as Brazilian farmers begin to slow sales.

  • The 6-day forecast for most of the Corn Belt calls for slightly above average precipitation but warmer than normal temperatures with the warm temperatures moving North as well.

  • July soybean meal closed at a new 5-month low yesterday and crush premiums have continued to slide lower, near the lowest in a year.

  • Wheat rallied sharply yesterday after the Kremlin accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack in order to assassinate Putin. The attack was shot down and no one was hurt, but it is unclear if Ukraine was even involved.

  • The deadline for the Black Sea grain deal is approaching on May 18, and yesterday’s stunt doesn’t lend much confidence that Russia will agree to extend the deal.

  • Ukraine’s next wheat crop is expected to be the lowest since 2012/13 at just 15.04 mmt, and yield estimates are below the 5-year average.

  • Adding more support to the wheat complex yesterday was the crop tour which expects Oklahoma to raise the smallest wheat crop since 1955 due to the extreme drought.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: May 3, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn ended higher on the day on carryover strength from the wheat markets as historically low crop numbers were noted in the Oklahoma crop tour.

  • Soybeans closed higher on strength in soybean oil, and neighboring corn and wheat markets.

  • Soybean meal and oil continued in their reactions to yesterday’s record March crush numbers, as meal struggled from large supplies and weakening demand. Soybean oil gained strength from higher inferred biofuel demand on lower-than-expected supplies.

  • All three wheat markets were sharply higher following KC contracts, as Oklahoma was noted as potentially having its smallest crop since 1955.

  • The grain markets appeared to add a level of “war premium” on reports of a foiled drone attack on the Kremlin by Ukraine.  Ukraine denies the attacks, but the result is more concern over the world’s grain supply.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content may be best viewed in horizontal mode.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 corn should be sold out. With the substantial inverse between old and new crop contract months, large rallies for Old Crop corn may be difficult to come by as we move forward. Consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • There is continued opportunity to buy December ’23 560 and 610 calls. The December corn contract is extremely oversold and shows signs of support with a hook reversal after making a new low for the move. Additionally, with the market approximately 50 cents off the recent high and 115 cents off the fall high, it has eroded enough risk premium ahead of the long growing season that call valuations look attractive here.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year.  We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

Grain Market insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Corn futures reversed off early session lows, and the results of the Oklahoma Winter Wheat crop tour revealed one of the worst crops since 1955, triggering a strong short covering reaction in the wheat market, spilling over and supporting the corn market.

  • The planting pace of this year’s crop is expected to be more complete across the corn belt this week as forecasts are calling for warmer and drier weather into the second week of May.

  • The weekly Ethanol Production report saw mixed numbers, as weekly production was improved over last week, and ethanol stockpiles were lower than expected. The overall pace of corn usage for ethanol is trending below USDA projections at this point of the marketing year.

  • Demand concerns will still be a focus with the release of weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. Expectations are for corn sales to be from -450,000 mt to 800,000 mt for the next two marketing years. Export sales totals will be influenced by the cancellations of Chinese purchases last week.

  • The strong closing price action posted a bullish reversal on the corn charts after retesting previous lows. With a market holding an oversold status, this could allow for additional price strength on technical buying and covering of short positions.

Above: The market is severely oversold and has exhibited a second reversal after making a new low for the move, indicating short-term selling may be exhausted, which could be seen as supportive. Nearby resistance sits near 612 and again near the 50-day moving average, while support for the July contract rests between the recent low of 569 and the July ’22 low near 562.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • We recommend holding current sales levels for Old Crop. We are beginning to push into the May-June seasonal window of opportunity, where prices could bounce as processors begin to push to keep supplies flowing.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time.  Our research indicates there is about a 74% likelihood of improved prices moving into the June time frame. Also, weather conditions will begin to dominate the market as we begin to move through planting and into the growing season, and we may consider recommending sales in the 1400 to 1450 area if any significant concerns arise. 

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans traded lower for most of the day but ultimately ended higher along with soybean oil following the Federal Reserve announcement that cast a bearish shadow over the markets.

  • The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points but hinted that they may be done with hikes for the year. The US Dollar reacted well to the news, but crude oil stayed suppressed, down 3 dollars a barrel.

  • Brazil’s basis levels had fallen sharply in the past two months but recently have improved by 75 cents as harvest wraps up and farmers slow selling. This has added some support to the soy complex.

  • In the US, soy planting is ahead of schedule at 20% complete with northern states showing the most sluggish pace. Temperatures in the North are forecast to warm over the next two weeks, which should speed up planting.

Above: July soybeans traded lower to post a new low for the move and reversed to settle near unchanged. The market will need further confirmation to continue in either direction following two consecutive reversals. Support lies near the recent low of 1392 with further support near 1350. Should support hold and buyers enter the market, resistance may be found between 1450 and 1460, and again near 1500.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market saw significant reversals today in all three US wheat futures classes with gains of 30 or more cents.

  • News outlets are reporting an attempted drone attack on the Kremlin in Russia. This may have been the catalyst behind today’s rally, as war premium was added back into the market.

  • Offering support to wheat price is the Oklahoma wheat tour’s projection of their crop at 54.3 mb. This would be the lowest production since 1955.

  • The American weather model predicts up to seven inches of rain next week in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. The European model is somewhat in conflict, though, with a drier forecast.

  • Egypt fulfilled their tender from Romania and Russia. US SRW wheat was cheaper but was also at a freight cost disadvantage. Additionally, the Russian wheat was purchased at $260 per ton, whereas Russia previously encouraged a $275 export price floor.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat should be sold out. With large rallies difficult to come by at this time of year, consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. Corn and K.C. wheat are near historic premiums to Chicago wheat, which could lend support to the Chicago contracts if HRW production concerns persist, or if any production concerns develop for corn. 

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: While the market is considered extremely oversold, it did post an outside-day up pattern, where the range is larger than that of the previous day/s and closed higher than it opened. This market set-up could be considered bullish and be supportive. Initial resistance could be found near 668 and again between 718 and 724, while key support may be found near 592.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist despite recent the recent rain.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: The July contract is oversold, and posted an outside day up, which is a type of reversal pattern where the current price action overtook the previous day’s and closed near the day’s highs. This pattern could be supportive should buyers enter the market on new positions or to cover existing short positions. Support may be found near 742 with further chart support near 690. Initial resistance lies between 835 and 850 and then near 886.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  We look for better pricing opportunities for the 2022 crop with potential planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for better prices as we move through springtime.

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The snowy and cold winter has given rise to wet conditions and planting concerns which may present good selling opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. Due to the lack of liquidity for the 2024 crop, there may not be any recommendations until late spring or early summer. This is the time for patience, not action.

Above: While the market is considered extremely oversold, it did post an outside-day up pattern, where the range is larger than that of the previous day/s and closed higher than it opened. This market set up could be considered bullish and can be supportive should buying return to the market. Nearby support may be found between 770 and 760, while resistance may be found near 870 and 895.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update May 3, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Grain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
JUL ’23 585 5
DEC ’23 526.5 6.75
DEC ’24 518.5 3.25
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1409.5 -1.25
NOV ’23 1265.75 -1.5
NOV ’24 1233 2
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 634.75 25.5
SEP ’23 646 25.5
JUL ’24 679 19.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 777.5 37.25
SEP ’23 770.25 34.5
JUL ’24 754.75 28
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 795 21.5
SEP ’23 797.5 21
SEP ’24 760 -7.75
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4134.5 -2.25
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 68.27 -3.28
Gold
AUG ’23 2052.5 10
Market Notes: Corn
  • Sharply lower crude oil yesterday (and so far today) may be the result of renewed economic concerns, with the Fed expected to raise interest rates this afternoon. This pressure could spill over into commodities.
  • The second crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil is in good condition. Southern and western Brazil have chances of showers over the next week or so.
  • Once the safrinha corn crop is harvested (around the July time frame) it could flood the market due to record crop size and lack of storage availability in Brazil.
  • A return to warmer and drier conditions for much of the Midwest should result in a pickup in planting pace.
Market Notes: Soybeans
  • Due to a lack of storage, Brazilian soybeans continue to flood the market. This is offering weakness to US futures and cash (and may lower US exports).
  • Higher temperatures (60s and 70s) in the Dakotas over the next couple weeks should help get the soybean crop planted there.
  • The drop in crude oil is weighing on soybean oil, which is in turn pressuring soybeans.
  • Daily stochastics show that both old and new crop soybeans are oversold – this could indicate that they are probing for a bottom.
Market Notes: Wheat
  • Egypt bought wheat from Romania and Russia. The Russian wheat was purchased at $260 per ton. Russia had previously encouraged a $275 price floor on exports. (US SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest but is at a freight cost disadvantage).
  • Russia is engaging in talks to extend the Black Sea export deal. However, many feel that they will not extend the agreement again without reduced sanctions.  
  • The Oklahoma wheat tour projected their crop at 54.3 mb. This would be the lowest crop since 1955.
  • The GFS weather model is projecting rains of up to 5-7 inches in parts of Nebraska and Kansas next week. The European model is drier, however.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

  • Sharply lower crude oil yesterday (and so far today) may be the result of renewed economic concerns, with the Fed expected to raise interest rates this afternoon. This pressure could spill over into commodities.

  • The second crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil is in good condition. Southern and western Brazil have chances of showers over the next week or so.

  • Once the safrinha corn crop is harvested (around the July time frame) it could flood the market due to record crop size and lack of storage availability in Brazil.

  • A return to warmer and drier conditions for much of the Midwest should result in a pickup in planting pace.

  • Due to a lack of storage, Brazilian soybeans continue to flood the market. This is offering weakness to US futures and cash (and may lower US exports).

  • Higher temperatures (60s and 70s) in the Dakotas over the next couple weeks should help get the soybean crop planted there.

  • The drop in crude oil is weighing on soybean oil, which is in turn pressuring soybeans.

  • Daily stochastics show that both old and new crop soybeans are oversold – this could indicate that they are probing for a bottom.

  • Egypt bought wheat from Romania and Russia. The Russian wheat was purchased at $260 per ton. Russia had previously encouraged a $275 price floor on exports. (US SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest but is at a freight cost disadvantage).

  • Russia is engaging in talks to extend the Black Sea export deal. However, many feel that they will not extend the agreement again without reduced sanctions.  

  • The Oklahoma wheat tour projected their crop at 54.3 mb. This would be the lowest crop since 1955.

  • The GFS weather model is projecting rains of up to 5-7 inches in parts of Nebraska and Kansas next week. The European model is drier, however.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: May 3, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 570.25
-9.75
DEC ’23 513.5
-6.25
DEC ’24 510
-5.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1399
-11.75
NOV ’23 1257.75
-9.5
NOV ’24 1227.75
-3.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 604.5
-4.75
SEP ’23 615.5
-5
JUL ’24 659.75
0.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 738.75
-1.5
SEP ’23 734
-1.75
JUL ’24 726.25
-0.5

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 769
-4.5
SEP ’23 771.75
-4.75
SEP ’24 760
-7.75

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4146
9.25

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 69.35
-2.2

Gold

AUG ’23 2044.4
1.9

  • Corn has turned lower this morning and has taken out the low from last Friday, in part due to hesitancy about today’s Fed announcement and also due to speculation about a large 2023 corn crop.

  • Today at 1pm central the Federal Reserve will announce their potential rate hike. They will likely announce a 25 basis point increase but there is a small possibility that rates are left unchanged due to the recent bank failure.

  • Brazilian corn prices have fallen to the equivalent of 5.18 for the July contract on the Bovespa exchange as their safrinha corn receives beneficial weather.

  • Ethanol production is projected to be lower than the previous week at 963k b/d, while the stockpile average estimate is 24.423 m bbl vs 42.306m a week ago.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with both soybean oil and soybean meal trading lower as well, and crude oil continues its slide lower and is down over 2 dollars a barrel.

  • The Fed rate announcement is casting a bearish sentiment over commodities today but more bearish for soybeans is StoneX’s new estimate for the Brazilian crop which is now at 157.7 mmt for 22/23.

  • Earlier this week, NASS reported an increase in the soybean crush to 198 mb in March, but crush premiums have fallen significantly and may continue to drop.

  • In the North where fields are too wet, soybean plantings may increase as corn runs out of time, but temperatures are expected to rise over the next two weeks, drying things out.

  • The wheat complex is mixed today with Chicago and Minn slightly lower but KC a bit higher. Overall, wheat is faring the best today between corn and soybeans as the US faces very tight wheat supplies.

  • The Oklahoma wheat crop is now seen at 54.3 million bushels, the lowest crop since 1955 due to extreme drought and low yields.

  • Russian wheat exports in this season are now seen at 44.4 mmt versus previous estimates of 44.5 mmt according to Sov Econ. Russian traders have struggled to compete due to the unofficial price floor of $275/ton.

  • Spring wheat areas should benefit from warmer temperatures forecast over the next two weeks, but some fields may still be too wet and may keep plantings below the 10.57 million that the USDA has estimated.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: May 2, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The lack of threatening weather and a risk off mentality in outside markets, especially crude oil, led the corn market lower.

  • Soybeans traded lower today as planting gets off to a swift start. The USDA is estimating plantings at 19% complete.

  • Soybean meal traded lower on record production from the March census crush report, while soybean oil found support, despite record production, from lower-than-expected stocks.

  • All three wheat classes closed lower on improved winter wheat ratings.

  • Concerns regarding the US banking sector, debt ceiling and higher interest rates weighed on outside markets in a risk off type of trade, which likely bled over and added pressure to the grain markets.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content may be best viewed in horizontal mode.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 corn should be sold out. With the substantial inverse between old and new crop contract months, large rallies for Old Crop corn may be difficult to come by as we move forward. Consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • For 2023 New Crop corn, Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘23 560 and December ‘23 610 calls in equal quantities. The December corn contract is extremely oversold and has left tails on the daily pricing chart indicating that it is finding support near the 520 area. Additionally, with the market approximately 50 cents off the recent high and 115 cents off the fall high, it has eroded enough risk premium ahead of the long growing season that call valuations look attractive here.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year.  We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

  • Risk off trade across many markets weighed on corn prices. The market saw money flow out of corn as fear of the looming debt ceiling and fed interest rate announce on Wednesday led to broad based selling.

  • USDA Crop Progress report showed corn planting at 26% completed, even with the 5-year average, and slightly below market expectations. Cold temperatures continue to limit planting pace in the Northern and Western Corn Belt states, but Southern planting progress has been strong.

  • Planting should start to pick up more in some areas as forecasts are calling for warmer and drier weather into the second week of May for the Northern and Eastern Corn Belt.

  • Demand concerns remain an overall concerning theme for the corn market as export activity and corn bushels used for weekly ethanol production are running behind USDA forecasts.  This brings fear that the USDA will make further demand adjustments on the May 12 WASDE report, potentially increasing corn carry out projections.

Above: The market is severely oversold and has exhibited a reversal after making a new low for the move, indicating short-term selling may be exhausted, which could be seen as supportive. Nearby resistance sits near 612 and again near the 50-day moving average, while support for the July contract rests near the recent low of 572.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • We recommend holding current sales levels for Old Crop. We are beginning to push into the May-June seasonal window of opportunity, where prices could bounce as processors begin to push to keep supplies flowing.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time.  Our research indicates there is about a 74% likelihood of improved prices moving into the June time frame. Also, weather conditions will begin to dominate the market as we begin to move through planting and into the growing season, and we may consider recommending sales in the 1400 to 1450 area if any significant concerns arise. 

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans were higher for most of the day but ultimately turned sharply lower, as crude oil declined suddenly to a loss of nearly 4 dollars a barrel.

  • Soybean plantings in the US are ahead of pace at 19%, while the 5-year average is 11%. Illinois and Iowa are leading the way with the benefit of better planting conditions.

  • Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve announcement for interest rate changes likely put pressure on crude oil today and therefore soybeans. The Fed is expected to increase rates by 25 basis points, but there is a small chance of no change due to the most recent banking failure.

  • While export demand remains sluggish, domestic demand is still firm thanks to the still profitable crushing margins. There have been no deliveries so far against May soybeans or soybean meal, which is a testament to the tight supplies.

Above: July soybeans have reversed and closed lower after making a new high for the move, which could lead to profit taking and possibly lower prices. Support lies near the recent low of 1396 with further support near 1350. Should support hold and buyers enter the market, resistance may be found between 1450 and 1460, and again near 1500.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After strength earlier in the session, wheat closed lower in all three US futures classes. Paris milling wheat futures were also sharply lower at the close.

  • The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed spring wheat was 12% planted vs 22% average. Additionally, winter wheat condition was rated 28% good to excellent (up 2% from last week).

  • As of this writing, crude oil is down roughly $4 per barrel, and the Dow is down about 450 points. This outside market pressure may have spilled over into the grains today.

  • The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by one quarter percent at the FOMC meeting this week. This could, in part, be offering weakness to financial and commodity markets.

  • Further rains are needed in the US Southern Plains. In Kansas the winter wheat poor to very poor crop rating is at 64% (2% worse than last week).

  • Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat. With the recent drop in price, they could look to source it from the US. However, the freight costs may be the deciding factor.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat should be sold out. With large rallies difficult to come by at this time of year, consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. Corn and K.C. wheat are near historic premiums to Chicago wheat, which could lend support to the Chicago contracts if HRW production concerns persist, or if any production concerns develop for corn. 

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: The market broke below the March low of 654 and is oversold. Initial resistance could be found near 668 and again between 718 and 724, while key support may be found near 592.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist despite recent the recent rain.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: The short-term trend is down, and the July contract is oversold, which could be supportive should buyers enter the market. Support may be found near 742 with further chart support near 690. Initial resistance lies between 835 and 850 and then near 886.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  We look for better pricing opportunities for the 2022 crop with potential planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for better prices as we move through springtime.

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The snowy and cold winter has given rise to wet conditions and planting concerns which may present good selling opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. Due to the lack of liquidity for the 2024 crop, there may not be any recommendations until late spring or early summer. This is the time for patience, not action.

Above: The short-term trend is down, though the July contract is oversold, which can be supportive should buying return to the market. Nearby support may be found near 778 and again near 760, while resistance may be found near 870 and 895.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update May 2, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 583.25 -1.25
DEC ’23 522 -3.25
DEC ’24 518.75 -1.75
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1424.5 -3
NOV ’23 1271.25 -3.75
NOV ’24 1233.75 1.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 614.25 -4
SEP ’23 625.5 -4.5
JUL ’24 660.75 -6.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 749.75 -7.5
SEP ’23 746.5 -8.75
JUL ’24 738.5 -1.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 784.5 -6.5
SEP ’23 787 -6.75
SEP ’24 767.75 -11.25
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4114.25 -71.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 72.5 -3.01
Gold
AUG ’23 2039.4 28

  • The USDA said 26% of the corn crop is planted (vs 14% last week and 26% average).

  • Central Brazil is drying out and looks to remain mostly dry through the end of the month. However, their soil moisture may be enough to get through the dry pattern.

  • Barge traffic on the upper Mississippi River has been halted because of high water levels.

  • China is on May Day holiday until Thursday. As of Friday’s close, July corn on their Dalian exchange hit a contract low.

  • The USDA said 19% of the soybean crop is planted (vs 9% last week and 11% average).

  • NASS said soybean oil and soybean meal stocks (at the end of March) are down 7% from last year.

  • On the Fats & Oils report, census crush for April was pegged at 198 mb.

  • There still have not been any soybean or soybean meal deliveries against the May contract. This is an indicator of tight supplies.

  • The USDA said 28% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent (vs 26% last week and 27% last year).

  • The USDA said 12% of the spring wheat crop is planted (vs 5% last week and 22% average).

  • Despite some rains last week in the southern plains, Kansas winter wheat poor to very poor condition increased 2% from last week to 64%.

  • The US Dollar Index is beginning to trend higher, and the Fed is anticipated to raise interest rates another 25 basis points at this week’s FOMC meeting.

  • GASC in Egypt is said to be tendering for wheat. With the recent decline in price, it is possible that they purchase from the US but freight cost could be the deciding factor.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: May 2, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 586.25
1.75
DEC ’23 526.25
1
DEC ’24 521.5
1
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1439.5
12
NOV ’23 1282.25
7.25
NOV ’24 1241.25
8.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 620.75
2.5
SEP ’23 632
2
JUL ’24 671
3.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 761.25
4
SEP ’23 758.75
3.5
JUL ’24 740
0.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 793.25
2.25
SEP ’23 795.25
1.5
SEP ’24 767.75
-11.25
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4182.25
-3.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 75.14
-0.37
Gold
AUG ’23 2017
5.6

  • Corn is trading slightly higher after prices reversed on Friday and have been trying to work higher since.

  • Yesterday afternoon the USDA released their crop progress report which showed corn at 26% planted which is in line with the 5-year average. Iowa is at 29% complete and Illinois at 40%.

  • Strong winds blew through the Midwest yesterday causing dust storms, and one in Illinois caused a 100 car pileup. There are currently red flag warnings in Minnesota.

  • Barge traffic has been closed along the Mississippi River due to high water levels impacting the already slow export business.

  • Soybeans are higher again which would make it the third day in a row if the trend continues. Export inspections were good and domestic demand has been robust.

  • The USDA reported that 19% of the soybean crop is planted which is well ahead of the 5-year average of 11% for this time of year. Illinois is at 39% complete and Iowa is at 16%.

  • Both soybean meal and oil are higher and supporting soybeans, and soybean oil continue to work higher despite declines in crude oil.

  • The Fats and Oils report from NASS showed both soybean oil and soybean meal stocks down 7% from a year ago.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher and is trying to find a bottom after is fell to its lowest levels since mid 2021.

  • Last week’s rain in some of the southwestern Plains was not enough to significantly help the winter wheat crop with the USDA reporting an increase of only 2% in the good to excellent rating to 28%.

  • The poor to very poor rating for winter wheat increased from 41% to 42% with the ratings for Kansas even worse and increasing from 62% to 64%.

  • The USDA has said that 12% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, below the 5-year average of 22%. Warmer temperatures this month should help increase that number, but a lot of prevent plants are likely.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: May 1, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn traded lower to begin the week with pressure coming from good planting weather ahead and a lower wheat market, while tight on-hand supplies supported the nearby contracts.

  • Soybeans found strength following Friday’s reversal higher as last week’s short sellers continued to cover their positions.

  • Despite weaker palm and crude oil markets, and less expensive South American meal offers, soybean oil and meal closed mid-range and on the positive side of unchanged, while adding support to soybeans. 

  • All three wheat classes closed lower today from follow through selling on expected crop improvements from last week’s rain and that more is forecasted for this week.

  • Likely adding some pressure to the corn and wheat markets, the US Dollar traded higher today in anticipation of another 0.25% rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content may be best viewed in horizontal mode.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 corn should be sold out. With the substantial inverse between old and new crop contract months, large rallies for Old Crop corn may be difficult to come by as we move forward. Consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • Be patient to take further action for New Crop.  We are moving into a time of year when we may be looking for option buying opportunities given the market is very oversold and weather-related issues could pop up at any time to move the market significantly. Additionally, owning both calls and puts could be warranted depending on market conditions and volatility.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year.  We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

  • The corn market saw choppy, pressured trade overall to start the week, with support staying in the old crop due to potential tighter supplies helping support the front end of the market.  The lack of deliveries against the May futures reflects this tighter old crop corn supply picture.

  • Strong selling pressure in the wheat markets limited the potential gains in the corn futures market as wheat futures broke to new nearby lows to start the week.

  • Weather forecasts are turning more favorable for improved planting pace, as recent cold temperatures likely limited planting in the north and northwestern corn belt this past week.

  • Money flow is a concern in the corn markets as managed money funds moved back to a net short position in the corn markets of 15,297 short contracts, selling over 64,000 net corn positions last week.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn were strong this week at 1.518 MMT, which was a market year high.  Despite the strong shipment week, export inspections are still down 35% year-over-year.

Above: The market is severely oversold and has exhibited a reversal after making a new low for the move, indicating short-term selling may be exhausted, which could be seen as supportive.  Nearby resistance sits near 612 and again near the 50-day moving average, while support for the July contract rests near the recent low of 572.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • We recommend holding current sales levels for Old Crop. We are beginning to push into the May-June seasonal window of opportunity, where prices could bounce as processors begin to push to keep supplies flowing.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time.  Our research indicates there is about a 74% likelihood of improved prices moving into the June time frame. Also, weather conditions will begin to dominate the market as we begin to move through planting and into the growing season, and we may consider recommending sales in the 1400 to 1450 area if any significant concerns arise. 

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans kept their momentum from Friday and moved higher again today with support from both soybean meal and oil.

  • While lower crude oil pressured soybean oil earlier in the day, bean oil recovered to close on the positive side of unchanged.

  • Basis for Brazilian soybeans appears to have put in a bottom and has rallied between 30 and 50 cents in the last week. Farmers initially sold everything they could not store but are now holding onto what they can to avoid making sales below their cost of production.

  • Argentina’s soy-dollar incentive to get farmers to make cash sales has not worked nearly as well as it did the two previous times and has resulted in sales of just 2 mmt. Argentinian farmers are keen to hold on to their old crop due to the drought which significantly cut into production.

  • Soybean inspections were on the lighter side last week with 14.8 mb inspected for export. Total inspections are now at 1,744 mb and are even with the previous year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.990 bb for 22/23, which is down 8% from the previous year.

Above: The market has retraced itself back to the March lows and has exhibited a reversal after making a new low for the move. This reversal indicates short-term selling may be exhausted and could be seen as supportive. Support lies near the recent low of 1396 with further support near 1350. Should support hold and buyers enter the market, resistance may be found between 1450 and 1460, and again near 1500.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The managed funds are said to have sold 146,000 grain contracts in total last week. With all three US wheat classes posting double-digit losses, it is likely that they continued to add to shorts today.

  • Spring wheat planting conditions should improve mid to late week, with temperatures in the Dakotas expected to reach the 70s.

  • The EU struck a deal with several eastern European countries: Five nations will ban imports of Ukrainian grain to maintain profitability for their farmers, but they will allow the grain to be transported westward to other countries through their regions.

  • At this point in time, it does not seem like Russia intends to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The current deal is set to expire on May 18.

  • Wheat inspections of 13.2 mb for the week bring total 22/23 inspections to 671 mb. That is down 3% from last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat should be sold out. With large rallies difficult to come by at this time of year, consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. Corn and K.C. wheat are near historic premiums to Chicago wheat, which could lend support to the Chicago contracts if HRW production concerns persist, or if any production concerns develop for corn. 

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: The market broke below the March low of 654 and is oversold. Initial resistance could be found near 668 and again between 718 and 724, while key support may be found near 592.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist despite recent the recent rain.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: The short-term trend is down, and the July contract is oversold, which could be supportive. Support may be found near 753 and again near 742, while initial resistance lies between 835 and 850 and then near 886. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  We look for better pricing opportunities for the 2022 crop with potential planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for better prices as we move through springtime.

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The snowy and cold winter has given rise to wet conditions and planting concerns which may present good selling opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. Due to the lack of liquidity for the 2024 crop, there may not be any recommendations until late spring or early summer. This is the time for patience, not action.

Above: The short-term trend is down, though the July contract is oversold, which can be supportive should buying return to the market. Nearby support may be found near 778 and again near 760, while resistance may be found near 870 and 895.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update May 1, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 582.5 -2.5
DEC ’23 521.25 -6.5
DEC ’24 517.75 -5.5
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1422.25 3
NOV ’23 1265.75 2.25
NOV ’24 1222.25 3
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 617.25 -16.5
SEP ’23 628.5 -16.5
JUL ’24 662.5 -14
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 756.5 -19.75
SEP ’23 753.75 -20
JUL ’24 738 -13
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 791.5 -12.25
SEP ’23 794.75 -12
SEP ’24 779 19
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4192.25 3.75
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 75.26 -1.35
Gold
AUG ’23 2011 -7.3

  • The Fed is expected to again raise interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. But the second largest bank failure in US history (First Republic Bank) could cause them to think twice.

  • Funds are now estimated to be net short 40,000 corn contracts. They are said to have sold 146,000 contracts in total last week in the grain room.

  • This week should be mostly cool and dry across the Midwest, but widespread rains are forecast to return this weekend.

  • The USDA may need to lower their US corn export estimate. Commitments are currently still down 33% from last year.

  • The E15 waiver may be passed to allow for sales of ethanol blended gasoline during the summer months.

  • China’s PMI data was lower in April than in March – this could indicate a shrinking economy.

  • Funds are said to have substantially reduced their long positions in soybeans and soybean meal.

  • The third iteration of the soy / peso exchange rate program in Argentina is said to have resulted in 2 mmt of soybean sold.

  • So far there have been zero deliveries (for the May contract) of soybeans or soybean meal. However, there have been some soybean oil deliveries.

  • On this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is expected to show better ratings after the rains last week in the southern Plains.

  • The EU made a deal with countries in eastern Europe that will allow Ukraine’s exports to continue to pass west through that region, but imports would be banned in 5 countries.

  • North Dakota could see high temperatures by the middle of the week, which may improve planting conditions for spring wheat.

  • The deadline for an extension of the Black Sea grain deal is May 18. At this time, it seems unlikely that Russia will renew.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: May 1, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 584.5
-0.5
DEC ’23 525.5
-2.25
DEC ’24 522.5
-0.75
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1422
2.75
NOV ’23 1266.25
2.75
NOV ’24 1220.75
1.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 626.25
-7.5
SEP ’23 637
-8
JUL ’24 670.75
-5.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 766.75
-9.5
SEP ’23 764
-9.75
JUL ’24 742
-9
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 794.5
-9.25
SEP ’23 797.5
-9.25
SEP ’24 779
19
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4187.25
-1.25
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 75.08
-1.53
Gold
AUG ’23 2016.6
-1.7

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning under more bearish pressure from Brazil’s expected record safrinha corn crop which has good weather forecast for this week.

  • Chinese markets are closed for holiday but on Friday, July corn on the Dalian exchange posted a contract low as they expect large supplies from Brazil.

  • In the US, temperatures have been cool and the Midwest received some rain this weekend but the forecast going forward is warmer and drier which should get the planters rolling in bigger numbers.

  • Last week’s CFTC data showed what everyone was anticipating which was funds taking a net short position in corn. They sold 64,731 contracts bringing them to a net short position of 15,297 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning and appear to be continuing the reversal seen on Friday. Tight on hand supplies may be supporting the soy complex.

  • Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is lower as crude oil falls by over 1.50 a barrel to 75 dollars a barrel.

  • Brazil’s record harvest may be priced in for the moment after Brazilian farmers sold everything they could not store and now hold everything they can causing prices there to rise.

  • Friday’s CFTC data as of April 25 showed funds as sellers of 47,574 contracts reducing their net long position to 87,208 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading lower again and is now the lowest it’s been since July of 2021. Improving winter wheat crop ratings following last week’s rains add to the pressure.

  • European officials made a deal with five eastern European countries which allows them to ban imports of Ukrainian grain as long as they allow grain to pass through the rest of Europe.

  • Russia is looking unlikely so far to extend the Black Sea grain deal on May 18 unless their demands are met, and the missile attacks on Ukraine continue. If grain shipments slow out of the Black Sea, it could be supportive for US prices.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds adding to their net short position. They sold 10,029 contracts increasing their net short position to 113,012 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.