|

Grain Market Insider: May 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn ended mixed as traders absorbed larger than expected carry-outs for both 22/23 and 23/24 US corn while finding carryover strength from wheat.

  • The USDA left Argentina’s soybean crop size unchanged from last month, this brought world soybean ending stocks in well above pre-report estimates for both the 22/23 and 23/24 crop years, weighing on soybeans.

  • All three wheat classes rallied to end the week as the USDA estimated US wheat inventories will come in at a 16-year low.

  • The US Dollar Index rallied sharply to end the week on fears of the US debt ceiling expiry and banking fallouts.

  • To see the updated U.S. Drought Monitor scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 5/10/2023

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 corn should be sold out. With the substantial inverse between old and new crop contract months, large rallies for Old Crop corn may be difficult to come by as we move forward. Consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 new crop. While the crop is going in the ground fast, the most volatile part of the growing season remains ahead. We’re going to maintain an opportunistic posture for now, targeting 590 – 630 versus December corn to suggest any further cash sales.  

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Despite overall bearish WASDE report numbers, strength in the wheat market supported front month corn futures to end the week. Bull spreading was noted, buying old crop and selling new, helping limit selling pressure in the corn market overall.

  • USDA estimated Old Crop corn carryout at 1.417 billion bushels, using a 75 mb cut in export demand to increase the supply picture.  This total was 51 mb above trade expectations.

  • The most negative side of the USDA WASDE report was 23/24 carryout projections of 2.222.  The USDA used a baseline yield of 181.5 bushels/acre and 92 million planted acres of corn to estimate production at 15.265 billion bushels, up 1.54 billion bushels from last year.

  • With the USDA report passed, the market will shift its focus back to the weather, which appears mostly favorable for planting pace while still providing adequate moisture to allow this year’s crop to have a strong start.

  • USDA raised projected Brazilian corn crop to 130 MMT, up 5MMT from last month as acreage has increased, and the crop has been supported by favorable weather overall.  The record Brazilian production will be direct competition to U.S. export business well into the summer.

Above: The market is recovering from being oversold and continues to be under the influence of the bullish reversal from 5/03. Nearby resistance sits near 612 and again near the 50-day moving average, while support for the July contract rests between the recent low of 569 and the July ’22 low near 562.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • We recommend holding current sales levels for Old Crop.  We are beginning to push into the May-June seasonal window of opportunity, where prices could bounce as processors begin to push to keep tight on-hand supplies flowing, and seasonal weather concerns can get priced into the market.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time.  As we work through planting season, our research indicates there is a 66% likelihood of better prices moving into early June. Additionally, weather conditions will begin to dominate the market as we begin to move into the growing season, and we may consider recommending sales in the 1400 to 1450 area if any significant concerns arise.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower with new crop leading the way down after a bearish WASDE report. Soybean meal closed slightly higher while soybean oil moved lower with crude oil.

  • Brazilian soybean production estimates were raised to 155 mmt which was above trade guesses and above April’s WASDE by 1 mmt. Surprisingly, Argentinian production was left unchanged at 37 mmt despite many private analysts estimating it much lower near 35 mmt or below.

  • The USDA estimated the 23/24 soybean ending stocks at 335 mb which was higher than expected, and production was pegged at a record high 4.51 bb. Ending stocks for 22/23 were 215 mb, above the last estimate of 210 mb.

  • Argentina has imported a record 539,000 mt of Brazilian soybean meal to offset its own lost supplies, but analysts have reported that Argentina’s capacity to import meal is limited to just 8 mmt per year. This has been supportive for US soybean meal prices as the US may be able to export more.

Above: July soybeans posted a bearish reversal on 5/08 and experienced continued downside follow-through. Support lies near the recent low of 1385 with further support near 1350. With support holding buyers may enter the market, resistance may be found between 1450 and 1460, and again near 1500.  

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA projected 23/24 US all wheat production at 1.659 bb (vs the average trade guess of 1.782 bb)

  • The USDA pegged US wheat 22/23 ending stocks at 598 mb, compared with an expectation of 603 mb. For 23/24 carryout is estimated at 556 mb vs the average trade guess of 602 mb.

  • The Black Sea grain deal negotiations are said to have not gone well, with the talks ending yesterday with no resolution.

  • July KC wheat rallied sharply to end the week after the USDA estimated HRW production at 514 mb vs an expectation of 591 mb (and 531 mb last year).

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat should be sold out. With large rallies difficult to come by at this time of year, consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time.  Managed Money funds currently hold their largest net short position since 2018, with a near record of about 40% of the total open interest in the Chicago contracts. Such a large position could be very supportive should the funds buy back their positions if market dynamics change due to HRW concerns or supply concerns in corn.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: The market experienced a bearish reversal on 5/08 with follow through selling. Currently, the slow stochastics indicator may be crossing over to the downside, indicating upward momentum has slowed for the time being. Nearby resistance can be found between the recent high of 669 and 718,  while key support may be found near 592.   

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales.  Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: The July contract continues to show upward momentum, though open interest has fallen off somewhat, indicating some profit taking.  If the market can break through nearby resistance, it could further test the 886 to 902 resistance area. Otherwise, initial support may be found near 769, with key support near 740.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/10/2023

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time.  Wet conditions have delayed some planting and raised some prevent planting concerns which could continue to influence the market and generate better selling opportunities in the coming months.  We are in no hurry to sell right now with everything going on.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. Due to the lack of liquidity for the 2024 crop, there may not be any recommendations until late spring or early summer. This is the time for patience, not action.

Above: The market continues to show upward momentum, though open interest has fallen off somewhat, indicating some profit taking.  Resistance still resides above the market near 870 and 895, while support may be found between 770 and 760.

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update May 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 578.25 -4
DEC ’23 509.75 -4
DEC ’24 502.75 -4
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1399 -6.5
NOV ’23 1236.75 -11.25
NOV ’24 1212 -10
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 632.5 5.25
SEP ’23 644.5 5.5
JUL ’24 681.25 5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 851 9.5
SEP ’23 837.5 9.5
JUL ’24 788.25 4
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 837 0.25
SEP ’23 840.5 0.5
SEP ’24 768 0
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4132.75 -11
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 70.93 0.05
Gold
AUG ’23 2035.4 -4.5

  • Corn is trading lower ahead of today’s WASDE report with Dec futures falling to a new low early this morning.

  • Expectations for today’s report are that the USDA will lower old crop corn export sales, but also that they will increase new crop corn ending stocks.

  • Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, which previously has looked very robust, is dealing with dryness in the South which may impact yields and production.

  • China has canceled a total of 32 mmt of US corn purchases in the past month as they look to South America for significantly cheaper prices.

  • Soybeans are trading lower along with soybean oil while soybean meal holds on to some slight gains. Crude oil remains slightly higher.

  • Brazil reportedly exported 943 thousand mt or soybeans to Argentina in January through April so that Argentina can meet their crushing expectations.

  • There were rumors yesterday that soybean meal sales for Argentina were switched to US origins, and that is potentially what has been supportive for meal.

  • CONAB has reported that 96% of the Brazilian soy harvest is now complete, and they are estimating production at 153.6 mmt. Friday’s WASDE report has guesses for Brazilian production at 155 mmt, up from the previous estimate.

  • Wheat is trading higher today ahead of the WASDE report which is expected to show lower winter wheat estimates than what the Dow Jones survey expected.

  • Most notably, the high-level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN ended yesterday with no resolution to the Black Sea grain deal in sight.

  • Winter wheat is rated 44% poor to very poor while the number 1 producer, Kansas, is rated a whopping 68% poor to very poor.

  • Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show old crop ending wheat stocks at 603 mb, up 5 mb from April due to smaller exports. The USDA will provide a production estimate as well which is projected to be 602 mb for all wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: May 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 583.25 1
DEC ’23 514.5 0.75
DEC ’24 506.75 0

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1414.5 9
NOV ’23 1251.25 3.25
NOV ’24 1225 3

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 636.5 9.25
SEP ’23 648 9
JUL ’24 682.5 6.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 859 17.5
SEP ’23 844.25 16.25
JUL ’24 786 1.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 851.25 14.5
SEP ’23 854 14
SEP ’24 768 0

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4159.25 15.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 71.13 0.25

Gold

AUG ’23 2029 -10.9

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as the May contract prepares to go off the board today at nearly a 50-cent premium to July.

  • The first deliveries against the May contract were made last night at 50,000 bushels delivered by ADM.

  • Today’s WASDE may show small declines in export sales and ethanol production but could raise feed and residual usage.

  • The USDA will likely have new crop ending stocks above 2 billion bushels, and are expected to increase Brazilian production but lower Argentinian production.

  • Soybeans are trading higher with soybean meal posting the biggest percentage gains but soybean oil moving higher as well thanks to slightly higher crude.

  • Brazil’s soybean production is estimated at 154.8 mmt by CONAB vs previous estimates of 153.6 mmt. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey are expecting 155.1 mmt.

  • Argentina’s soybean harvest is estimated at 51.6% complete with production estimates unchanged at 22.5 mmt.

  • Despite falling crush margins, NOPA April US soybean crush was seen at 174.17 mb compared to 185.81 mb the previous month.

  • Wheat is trading higher ahead of today’s WASDE report as trade worries about yield estimates the USDA may provide.

  • Traders are expecting new crop ending stocks to be estimated at just over 600 mb which would leave a similar all wheat balance sheet to the one we have this year.

  • The meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN ended yesterday without an agreement to the continuation of the Black Sea grain deal which is supporting prices today.

  • Argentina’s is trying to bring its genetically modified wheat to market and has been significantly expanding access to distributors in Argentina.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Test Newsletter to Post 2023-05-11

ByGrain Market Insider

An Awesome Title
This is just a simple text you should change
Click Here


Corn
JUL ’23 591.5 -2.5
DEC ’23 517.75 -3
DEC ’24 510 -2.75

Soybeans
JUL ’23 1396.75 -7.25
NOV ’23 1245.5 -5.25
NOV ’24 1220.5 -1

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 636.5 -4.75
SEP ’23 646.75 -5.75
JUL ’24 685.5 -1.75

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 850.25 -5
SEP ’23 835.5 -5.75
JUL ’24 791 -5.75

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 842.75 -6.75
SEP ’23 846.25 -5.75
SEP ’24 780 -2

S&P 500
JUN ’23 4148.5 -3.5

Crude Oil
JUL ’23 72.42 -0.1

Gold
AUG ’23 2060.8 4.3

Unsubscribe   |   Manage your subscription   |   View online

|

Grain Market Insider: May 11, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Anticipated lowered exports and increased ending stocks in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE pushed corn prices back down near their recent lows.

  • The confirmed sale of 132,000 tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2023/24 marketing year by the USDA this morning helped support the soybean complex.

  • Soybean meal prices moved sharply higher while soybean oil prices followed crude oil lower again.

  • Disappointing export sales and continued profit taking ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE in K.C. and Minneapolis weighed on all three wheats.

  • To see the updated 1–7-day GFS Ensemble Forecast Precipitation for South America and updated 6-to-10-day NOAA precipitation and temperature outlooks scroll down to the Other Charts / Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 5/10/2023

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 corn should be sold out. With the substantial inverse between old and new crop contract months, large rallies for Old Crop corn may be difficult to come by as we move forward. Consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 new crop. While the crop is going in the ground fast, the most volatile part of the growing season remains ahead. We’re going to maintain an opportunistic posture for now, targeting 590 – 630 versus December corn to suggest any further cash sales.  

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Corn market saw risk off trade on Thursday as the market prepares for Friday’s USDA WASDE report.  Prices were in consolidation, trading within Wednesday’s large price range, but closed near the low end of that range.

  • Friday’s WASDE report will show the first projections for the 2023-24 marketing year with an expected carryout projection of just over 2.000 billion bushels.  A softer demand tone is expected to cause old crop carryout to rise to 1.366 billion bushels, up slightly from last month.

  • Weekly export sales were disappointing at 10.13 mb for 22/23 and 3.27 mb for 23/24. U.S. exports continue to struggle against the cheaper Brazilian corn. Exports sales for 22/23 need to average 17.4 mb per week to meet the USDA’s current estimate.

  • Overall, weather forecasts appear mostly favorable for planting pace while still providing adequate moisture to allow this year’s crop to have a strong start.

  • CONAB raised their expected Brazilian corn crop projections for the 22/23 marketing year to 125.54 MMT, up slightly from last month, but over 12 MMT higher than last year’s total production.

Above: The market is recovering from being oversold and continues to be under the influence of the bullish reversal from 5/03. Nearby resistance sits near 612 and again near the 50-day moving average, while support for the July contract rests between the recent low of 569 and the July ’22 low near 562.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • We recommend holding current sales levels for Old Crop.  We are beginning to push into the May-June seasonal window of opportunity, where prices could bounce as processors begin to push to keep tight on-hand supplies flowing, and seasonal weather concerns can get priced into the market.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time.  As we work through planting season, our research indicates there is a 66% likelihood of better prices moving into early June. Additionally, weather conditions will begin to dominate the market as we begin to move into the growing season, and we may consider recommending sales in the 1400 to 1450 area if any significant concerns arise.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in the front months but posted a slight loss for the Nov contract. Soybean meal rallied at the close while soybean oil was dragged lower by crude oil.

  • Export sales were very poor at just 2.3 mb for 22/23, down 70% from the previous week and 68% from the prior 4-week average. Shipments were 15.1 mb, just above the 12.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s current marketing year estimate.

  • Weekly soybean meal export sales for 22/23 came in near the top end of expectations with Vietnam and Romania as top destinations. This helped move front month soybean meal futures higher by over 2.8%.

  • Despite the poor export sales, the USDA did confirm a sale of soybeans to unknown destinations of 132,000 tons for the 23/24 marketing year, which was supportive.

  • Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to raise the soybean carryout slightly and estimate new crop production around 4.494 bb. Argentina’s production is expected to be lowered while Brazil’s is expected to rise.

Above: July soybeans have recovered from being severely oversold and posted a bearish reversal on 5/08 which indicates recent buying could be exhausted and the market may turn lower.  Support lies near the recent low of 1385 with further support near 1350. With support holding buyers may enter the market, resistance may be found between 1450 and 1460, and again near 1500.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat export sales were disappointing with the USDA reporting an increase of only 1.0 mb for 22/23. For 23/24 the USDA reported an increase of 12.3 mb.

  • Recent rainfall in the Plains states added pressure to wheat futures. Even some of the driest areas of Western Kansas have received measurable precipitation in the last 72 hours.

  • Another day of talks between the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine took place as they look for a resolution. As it currently stands, the deal will expire on May 18th.

  • Despite Russia offering FOB wheat at $245 per ton, Algeria backed away from that tender, as Balkan prices were lower.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that heavy rains for Argentina’s wheat areas may not come until September.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat should be sold out. With large rallies difficult to come by at this time of year, consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time.  Managed Money funds currently hold their largest net short position since 2018, with a near record of about 40% of the total open interest in the Chicago contracts. Such a large position could be very supportive should the funds buy back their positions if market dynamics change due to HRW concerns or supply concerns in corn.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: The market experienced a bearish reversal on 5/08 with follow through selling. Currently, the slow stochastics indicator may be crossing over to the downside, indicating upward momentum has slowed for the time being. Nearby resistance can be found between the recent high of 669 and 718,  while key support may be found near 592.   

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales.  Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: The July contract continues to show upward momentum, though open interest has fallen off somewhat, indicating some profit taking.  If the market can break through nearby resistance, it could further test the 886 to 902 resistance area. Otherwise, initial support may be found near 769, with key support near 740.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/10/2023

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time.  Wet conditions have delayed some planting and raised some prevent planting concerns which could continue to influence the market and generate better selling opportunities in the coming months.  We are in no hurry to sell right now with everything going on.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. Due to the lack of liquidity for the 2024 crop, there may not be any recommendations until late spring or early summer. This is the time for patience, not action.

Above: The market continues to show upward momentum, though open interest has fallen off somewhat, indicating some profit taking.  Resistance still resides above the market near 870 and 895, while support may be found between 770 and 760.

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update May 11, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 584.75 -9.25
DEC ’23 514.5 -6.25
DEC ’24 506 -6.75
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1409.25 5.25
NOV ’23 1249 -1.75
NOV ’24 1220.25 -1.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 631 -10.25
SEP ’23 642.75 -9.75
JUL ’24 677.75 -9.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 844 -11.25
SEP ’23 829.5 -11.75
JUL ’24 783.75 -13
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 837.5 -12
SEP ’23 840.75 -11.25
SEP ’24 780 -2
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4131.5 -20.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 71.53 -0.99
Gold
AUG ’23 2043 -13.5

  • Corn is trading lower after poor export sales and continued bearish pressure from China’s sales cancellations earlier this week. China has now canceled over 31 mb of US corn purchases since April.

  • Export sales were not good and showed net sales of 257,300 mt for 22/23, which was down from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,146,100 mt were down 33% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average.

  • The Brazilian crop is expected to be record large and likely between 123 and 125 mmt, but Brazil’s CONAB is now projecting 125.5 mmt.

  • Expectations for tomorrow’s WASDE are for a sharp jump in ending stocks for 23/24, with a carryout over 2 billion bushels. Old crop corn exports are expected to be lowered as well.

  • Soybeans began the day sharply lower with Nov making new lows, but the July and September contracts have rebounded and are now positive. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower. Crude oil has fallen over a dollar a barrel.

  • Export sales for soybeans were poor at 62,200 mt for 22/23, which was down 70% from the previous week and down 68% from the prior 4-week average. Exports were 411,000 mt and were down 27% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average.

  • The USDA confirmed a sale this morning of 132,000 tonnes of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 23/24.

  • Yesterday’s CPI data that showed slowing inflation was supportive as an easing of inflation will make the Fed less likely to increase interest rates. An easing of interest rate hikes typically moves the dollar lower, which makes US commodities cheaper relative to other countries.

  • The Rosario Exchange in Argentina is estimating their soy crop at just 21.5 mmt, down from 23 mmt at the previous estimate, and far below the USDA’s last estimate of 27 mmt. There have been some private analysts that are projecting production below 20 mmt.

  • Wheat is trading lower following very small export sales, falling Paris milling wheat futures, and cheap Russian wheat that continues to be sold on the market.

  • Export sales for wheat were 26,300 mt for 22/23, which was a marketing year low and was down 88% from the previous week and 86% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 204,000 mt were down 29% from the previous week and 24% from the prior 4-week average.

  • Heavy rain is falling in the Plains including some of the driest areas of the southwest. These rains will be too late for much of the HRW wheat crop but may improve yields in certain areas.

  • Today is the second day of high-level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations over the Black Sea grain deal, and a resolution may be announced this week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: May 11, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 591.5
-2.5
DEC ’23 517.75
-3
DEC ’24 510
-2.75

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1396.75
-7.25
NOV ’23 1245.5
-5.25
NOV ’24 1220.5
-1

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 636.5
-4.75
SEP ’23 646.75
-5.75
JUL ’24 685.5
-1.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 850.25
-5
SEP ’23 835.5
-5.75
JUL ’24 791
-5.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 842.75
-6.75
SEP ’23 846.25
-5.75
SEP ’24 780
-2

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4148.5
-3.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 72.42
-0.1

Gold

AUG ’23 2060.8
4.3

  • Corn ended the day yesterday higher but is trading lower this morning ahead of the export sales report which is expected to show another week of poor exports.

  • Brazil’s total corn output will grow by 12% from the previous cycle reaching a projected 126.7 mmt in 22/23 according to a Reuters poll.

  • Ethanol production fell the past week and production pace has been below the levels needed to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • Corn may end up trading quietly until tomorrow’s WASDE numbers are revealed, and traders get a look at estimates for the US carryout and South American production.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and the Nov contract made new lows overnight. Soybean meal is relatively unchanged while soybean oil is lower with lower crude.

  • Technically, a close under the March low at 12.47 for the the Nov contract could open up a move to 12.17, which were the lows made last July before the weather rally kicked in.

  • Argentina’s Rosario Grains exchange cut their forecast for the 22/23 soybean crop by 6.5% to 21.5 mmt which compares to a previous estimate of 23 mmt.

  • China is continuing their efforts to stabilize their soybean imports and diversify their sources by promoting higher domestic production.

  • Wheat is trading lower across the board today ahead of export sales and following more rain in the forecast for drought stricken areas in the southwest.

  • The EU’s soft wheat exports in the season beginning July 1 rose 11% and has reached 26.5 mmt as of May 7, compared with 23.9 mmt the previous year.

  • China is expecting a strong wheat harvest  and stable prices over the summer with a low possibility of the government buying crops to support prices.

  • The EU’s wheat crop outlook has been raised to 130 mmt, with stockpiles possibly ending 22/23 at an extremely high level. Spain is expected to produce less due to persistent drought.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Grain Market Insider: May 10, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Position squaring ahead of Friday’s USDA report and tight on-hand supplies continue to support Old Crop July relative to the New Crop contracts which are being pressured by a friendly crop outlook.

  • Weak technical follow through from Monday’s bearish reversal continues to weigh on the market ahead of Friday’s USDA report.

  • Lower Malaysian palm oil and lower crude oil pressured soybean oil lower while soybean meal found support and reversed to settle higher after trading to a new recent low.

  • Profit taking, as indicated by falling open interest, pressured both K.C. and Minneapolis contracts, while good crop prospects continue to weigh on the Chicago contracts.

  • The US Consumer Price Index, measuring inflation, rose 4.9% on an annual basis, slightly lower than the expected rise of 5.0%, and has the market thinking the Federal Reserve may pause further interest rate hikes, which could be friendly commodities.

  • To see the updated National Weather Service 6 – 10 day forecast and the 1 week precipitation Brazilian forecast scroll down to the Other Charts / Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 5/10/2023

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 corn should be sold out. With the substantial inverse between old and new crop contract months, large rallies for Old Crop corn may be difficult to come by as we move forward. Consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 new crop. While the crop is going in the ground fast, the most volatile part of the growing season remains ahead. We’re going to maintain an opportunistic posture for now, targeting 590 – 630 versus December corn to suggest any further cash sales.  

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • The corn market saw good money flow into the front end of the market, erasing most of yesterday’s losses in the July contract. This was triggered by a reflection of tight current corn supplies and rolling on long May positions with May expiration on Friday.

  • Deferred futures had limited gains as the strong planting pace and the prospects of growing new crop supplies keeps the market cautious. December corn touched a new near-term low of 512-¼ before turning higher into the close.

  • The favorable price action in the corn futures market posted hook or price reversals, which improved the technical picture and could lead to additional buying support on Thursday.

  • The corn market and grain markets in general will be looking towards Friday’s USDA WASDE report for near-term direction and the market’s first look at 2023-24 marketing year supply/demand numbers. Expectations are for a slight increase in old crop carryout, and new crop projected carryout to push 2.0 billion bushels for this fall. The report will be released on Friday, May 12 at 2:00 CST.

  • The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report will be released on Thursday morning. Corn export demand continues to struggle, and the market will be looking for improvement off last week’s disappointing sales recording net cancellations of 315,600 MT for old crop corn.

Above: The market is recovering from being oversold and continues to be under the influence of the bullish reversal from 5/03. Nearby resistance sits near 612 and again near the 50-day moving average, while support for the July contract rests between the recent low of 569 and the July ’22 low near 562.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • We recommend holding current sales levels for Old Crop.  We are beginning to push into the May-June seasonal window of opportunity, where prices could bounce as processors begin to push to keep tight on-hand supplies flowing, and seasonal weather concerns can get priced into the market.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time.  As we work through planting season, our research indicates there is a 66% likelihood of better prices moving into early June. Additionally, weather conditions will begin to dominate the market as we begin to move into the growing season, and we may consider recommending sales in the 1400 to 1450 area if any significant concerns arise.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans closed lower again today, primarily led lower by the front months and soybean oil.  Soybean meal managed to close only slightly higher.

  • Despite friendly CPI data that showed inflation slowing, crude oil prices remained lower, which pressured the soy complex. The Dollar fell after the news, making soybeans slightly more competitive to Brazilian offers.

  • Friday’s WASDE report will likely hold both bullish and bearish numbers for soybeans. Argentina’s production is expected to fall to 24 mmt or lower, while estimates for Brazil are higher at 155 mmt.

  • With weather much improved, planting progress should be expected to continue at a good pace, and this has weighed on new crop prices as a large crop may be in the future.

Above: July soybeans have recovered from being severely oversold and posted a bearish reversal on 5/08 which indicates recent buying could be exhausted and the market may turn lower. Support lies near the recent low of 1392 with further support near 1350. Should support hold and buyers enter the market, resistance may be found between 1450 and 1460, and again near 1500.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The northeastern two thirds of Kansas saw good rainfall, which may have added resistance to prices, although it may be too little too late.

  • The Kansas winter wheat crop is rated 68% poor to very poor as of May 7. This is the lowest rating for that date since 1989.

  • Meetings began today between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN to discuss the Black Sea grain deal and a possible resolution beyond the current May 18 end date.

  • For Friday’s WASDE report, the trade is looking for 1,782 mb in 23/24 all wheat production versus 1,650 in April.

  • The average US wheat carryout estimate for 22/23 is 603 mb versus 598 last month, and for 23/24 the average guess is 602 mb.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  At this point in the crop marketing year most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat should be sold out. With large rallies difficult to come by at this time of year, consider using 40 to 50-cent rallies to sell any remaining inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time.  Managed Money funds currently hold their largest net short position since 2018, with a near record of about 40% of the total open interest in the Chicago contracts. Such a large position could be very supportive should the funds buy back their positions if market dynamics change due to HRW concerns or supply concerns in corn.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: The market experienced a bearish reversal on 5/08 with follow through selling. Currently, the slow stochastics indicator may be crossing over to the downside, indicating upward momentum has slowed for the time being. Nearby resistance can be found between the recent high of 669 and 718,  while key support may be found near 592.   

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/09/2023

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales.  Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: The July contract continues to show upward momentum, though open interest has fallen off somewhat, indicating some profit taking.  If the market can break through nearby resistance, it could further test the 886 to 902 resistance area. Otherwise, initial support may be found near 769, with key support near 740.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Updated as of 05/10/2023

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time.  Wet conditions have delayed some planting and raised some prevent planting concerns which could continue to influence the market and generate better selling opportunities in the coming months.  We are in no hurry to sell right now with everything going on.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. Due to the lack of liquidity for the 2024 crop, there may not be any recommendations until late spring or early summer. This is the time for patience, not action.

Above: The market continues to show upward momentum, though open interest has fallen off somewhat, indicating some profit taking.  Resistance still resides above the market near 870 and 895, while support may be found between 770 and 760.

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update May 10, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 590.75 6
DEC ’23 518 -0.25
DEC ’24 511 -0.5
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1410.25 -4
NOV ’23 1254.25 -0.25
NOV ’24 1222.75 0
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 637.25 -6.25
SEP ’23 648.75 -6.5
JUL ’24 685.25 -6.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 849.5 -6.75
SEP ’23 836 -5.75
JUL ’24 793.75 -6.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 847 -0.75
SEP ’23 850 0
SEP ’24 780 -2
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4140.75 6.75
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 72.91 -0.71
Gold
AUG ’23 2049.6 -12.8

  • May and July corn are trading slightly higher with deferred contracts lower. CPI data was friendly today with inflation increasing 4.9%, less than the 5% estimate and the lowest annual pace since April 2021.

  • Forecasts are calling for a mixture of moisture and warmth throughout the next two weeks, which should hasten planting along and in good conditions.

  • Friday’s WASDE will most likely show a larger US crop and ending stocks number for 23/24. The average trade guess for the 23/24 carryout is 2094 mb.

  • The central Illinois corn basis is reported to be 70 over futures as end users deal with limited supply and unwillingness to sell, which explains the large premium May holds to later contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower along with soybean oil, while soybean meal moves higher. The decline in crude oil today has not been supportive, as well as a decline in palm oil.

  • Chinese soybean imports for April were reportedly down 10% compared to a year ago at 266 mb. China’s May and June imports are expected to rise, however.

  • CONAB has reported that 96% of the Brazilian soy harvest is now complete, and they are estimating production at 153.6 mmt. Friday’s WASDE report has guesses for Brazilian production at 155 mmt, up from the previous estimate.

  • Trade guesses for Argentina’s soybean production in the WASDE report are at just 24 mmt, down 3 mmt from the previous estimate, but some estimates have that number even lower.

  • Wheat is mixed again today with Chicago down the most, slight losses for KC wheat, and slight gains for Minn wheat. Poor crop conditions in OK and KS have been supportive of KC wheat.

  • Traders are focused on the potential end of the Black Sea grain deal which expires on May 18. Inspections resumed yesterday for exports out of the Black Sea, but the countries have not come to an agreement yet.

  • Today begins high level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations over the Black Sea grain deal, and a resolution may be announced this week.

  • Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show old crop ending wheat stocks at 603 mb, up 5 mb from April due to smaller exports. The USDA will provide a production estimate as well which is projected to be 602 mb for all wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: May 10, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 579.75
-5
DEC ’23 512.75
-5.5
DEC ’24 507.5
-4

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1404.5
-9.75
NOV ’23 1249.5
-5
NOV ’24 1218.75
-4

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 635
-8.5
SEP ’23 646.5
-8.75
JUL ’24 685.25
-6.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 843.25
-13
SEP ’23 829
-12.75
JUL ’24 788
-12

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 839.5
-8.25
SEP ’23 840.25
-9.75
SEP ’24 782
3

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4128.5
-5.5

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 72.82
-0.8

Gold

AUG ’23 2057.4
-5

  • Corn is trading lower again this morning following yesterday’s Chinese import cancellation of US corn. This is the third cancellation and there are fears more will come.

  • On Friday the USDA will release their WASDE report with estimates for the US 23/24 corn carryout at 2,094, the Brazilian corn crop at 126 mmt, and Argentina at 35 mmt. The estimates for Brazil were higher than the previous month while estimates for Argentina are lower.

  • There have still been no deliveries for the May corn contract and it is now 8 days into the delivery period.

  • Between the planting progress which is ahead of schedule, increased Brazilian production, and the sales cancellation, the market is under pressure.

  • Soybeans are trading lower again this morning along with soybean meal and oil. Crude oil is lower as well, sitting just under 73 dollars a barrel.

  • Trade estimates for the US 23/24 carryout in Friday’s WASDE is 293, a higher guess than last month. The Brazilian soybean crop is now estimated at 155 mmt vs the previous 154 mmt, and Argentina is expected to produce 24 mmt vs 27 mmt.

  • Lower Chinese demand is concerning, but the USDA is expected to keep Chinese imports near 96 mmt but could see more exports from Brazil.

  • Yesterday, managed money were net sellers of 8,000 contracts of soybeans, bringing their net long position down to just 53,000.

  • Wheat is lower again, but KC wheat and Minn have been holding up better than Chicago due to the poor crop conditions and slow spring wheat planting pace.

  • Outbound inspections have resumed under the Black Sea grain deal, but the deal has still not been renewed and Russia’s terms to continue the agreement are lofty.

  • Yesterday, managed money were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, adding to their net short position and bringing it to 113,000 contracts.

  • Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are high, and the Ukrainian nuclear power plant is under threat of nuclear accident again due to the fighting.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.