|

Opening Update: May 30, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 604 0
DEC ’23 531 -3.5
DEC ’24 510 -3.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1324.25 -13
NOV ’23 1176.5 -13
NOV ’24 1150 -10.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 607.75 -8.25
SEP ’23 622 -7.5
JUL ’24 665.25 -7.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 803.25 -16
SEP ’23 798 -16.25
JUL ’24 763 -3.5

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 809 -9
SEP ’23 810 -9.25
SEP ’24 783.5 9.25

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4231.5 18.25

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 71.82 -0.85

Gold

AUG ’23 1974.2 11.1

  • Corn is trading quietly with front month July slightly higher but deferred months a bit lower.

  • Weather forecasts have begun to show models turning cool and wet for the second half of June, but it should remain dry before then.

  • Brazil’s corn production has been estimated higher to 137 mmt by Safras & Mercado, and their previous estimate was 130 mmt.

  • July corn on the Bovespa exchange in Brazil ended at the equivalent of $4.95 while July corn on the Dalian exchange was lower at the equivalent of $9.38 a bushel, down 7% on the year.

  • Soybeans and both soy products are lower this morning as well as crude oil, possibly due to the favorable forecast in the second half of June.

  • For the moment, trade appears to be expecting a record crop from the US and has already priced in Brazil’s record crop, but weather could still be a factor in the US.

  • Soybean meal is taking a hit this morning and is still under pressure from California’s Proposition 12 requirements.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 19,795 contracts reducing their net long position to just 4,147 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading lower along with the rest of the grain complex as recent rains in HRW wheat areas have fallen, and export demand remains poor.

  • Russia reportedly attacked central Ukraine with Iranian drones on Sunday which was the 1,500th anniversary of Ukraine’s capital. Attacks were also directed at the port of Odesa.

  • Crop exports out of the Black Sea corridor are the slowest they have been since the agreement was originally struck with only 3 vessels being completed for inspections per day.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position. They sold 6,019 contracts increasing their short position to 118,788 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Grain Market Insider: May 26, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, May 29, 2023, in observance of Memorial Day

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Fund short covering and the building of weather premium on a warm and dry outlook ahead of a long weekend pushed the corn market higher with December leading the way.

  • The addition of weather premium on the warm and dry outlooks had November leading the Old Crop contracts higher, with further support coming from both soybean meal and oil.

  • Led by strength in the corn market and a short fund position in the Chicago, all three wheat classes ended the day on the positive side of unchanged, with K.C. being the laggard, likely on ideas of increased crop ratings with the recent moisture in the southern Plains.

  • With debt ceiling talks in Washington D.C. appearing to progress, there has been a sense of optimism that has permeated the markets and likely added a broad level of support to the commodities.

  • To see updated US 7 day precipitation forecast and US 8-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. July corn touched the lower end of the target range of 575 – 600 with a high of 575-1/2, which put it 30 cents off last week’s low. If you still have Old Crop bushels to sell, consider using this rally to begin pricing some of those remaining bushels and adding incremental sales up to 600. Another thing to consider is that there is about a 65-cent inversion from the July contract to the September contract, which may be lost when bids roll from one contract to the other in the next month or so.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 new crop. Planting is nearly complete and the volatile weather months still ahead. December corn has dropped nearly 120 cents from its January high, and with that drop, much of the weather risk premium has eroded away. With drought still looming in the WCB and the funds carrying a 92k contract short position, we continue to target the 590 – 630 range in the December futures to suggest adding cash sales. If you happen to not have any New Crop sold, you should consider targeting the 550 – 560 area to begin pricing bushels.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Fund short covering pushed corn prices strongly higher to end the week as weather forecasts for the heart of the Corn Belt are a concern into the first week of June.

  • Weather models are showing above normal temperatures and limited rainfall over the core of the Corn Belt into early June as a high-pressure ridge has developed over this region.  Evaporation rates will stay high next week, which has the potential to damage the early-stage corn crop.

  • Weather forecasts after Memorial Day will be key for potential precipitation to develop around the June 5-7 window. The grain markets could have a high amount of volatility based off those forecasts given the recent rally and the positioning of the Managed money funds in the corn market.

  • The cash corn market stays supportive as end-users are pursuing supplies given a potential weather issue. The National Corn Index closed Friday at $6.25 with July Futures at $6.04, a discount to the index, reflecting the cash market strength.

  • Demand will likely be a limiting factor as weekly exports remain poor, and the recent price rally will only add more premium to U.S. corn price versus the cheaper Brazil supplies coming online.

Above: The July contract traded through the recent high of 600 and continues to show positive momentum. If current prices can hold and close above the 50-day moving average near 613, the market would be poised to test April’s high of 647-1/2.  Support below the market rests between 550 and 530, and again near the 2021 September low of 497-1/2. 

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • July soybeans found support last week just above the 1300 level. While the month of May has been a rough one for the soy complex, the market remains in a seasonal window conducive for upside volatility and opportunity. Given the oversold nature of the market, combined with a still tight Old Crop domestic balance, continue to hold on progressing any Old Crop sales for now.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time. As we continue through planting season, favorable weather conditions and South American competition have pressed US prices down nearly 17% from the beginning of the year. The potential remains for a tighter New Crop balance sheet, as the US Drought Monitor map remains concerning. We would consider recommending the next sales in the 1350 to 1400 area.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans ended the week on a strong note along with higher soybean meal and oil. July beans posted a 30-cent gain on the week, while November gained 14 cents. Higher crude oil and palm oil prices were supportive as well.

  • The entire grain complex got a boost today from talk of dry weather that may continue into the beginning of July, but the European weather models are calling for moderate showers in some of the Corn Belt. We will get a clearer weather picture within the next two weeks.

  • While soybean meal found some much-needed technical support, soybean oil got a boost from palm oil, which had its third consecutively higher close.There is concern for drought in Malaysia and Indonesia this coming year, which may impact their production.

  • Argentina will be exporting approximately 5.4 mmt less soybean meal in the coming year due to their drought ravaged crop, and there is still hope that the US will pick up some of that export business.

Above: Soybean prices have fallen to near 1300 and have found some support near 1304.  The market continues to show signs of being oversold and appears to be consolidating.  Stochastic indicators have crossed to the upside, which is considered positive, and could be supportive if reversal action occurs.  Should the 1304 support level fail, the next area of support may be found near the July 2022 and November 2021 lows of 1288 and 1181 respectively. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The poor US HRW crop, as well as dryness in Russian spring wheat areas, are supportive factors. However, the wheat market was likely pulled higher today, mostly by spillover from corn and soybeans; the US Midwest weather forecast looks warm and dry for the next two weeks or so and the market may be putting in some weather premium ahead of the 3 day weekend.

  • Nearby contracts were weaker relative to the deferred in K.C. wheat futures today. This may be indicative of the recent rains in the panhandle areas versus supply concerns down the road, given the overall poor conditions in the southern Plains.

  • There are reports that Russa may not extend the Black Sea export deal on July 17th unless demands are met regarding their grain and fertilizer exports.This may have been reflected in higher Matif wheat futures today, even though French wheat is rated 93% good to excellent.

  • Taiwan flour millers are reported to have purchased 56,000 mt of US milling wheat overnight.

  • The US Dollar Index continues to trend higher, and though wheat posted gains today, the rising Dollar Index may limit upside potential going forward.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. The market is down more than 300 cents from its October high and has become extremely oversold. The July contract may also post its 8th consecutive down month in a row at prices not seen since early 2021, even though wheat inventories of major exporting countries are anticipated to fall to 16 year lows. With the market being this oversold and a fund net position short nearly 113k contracts, we continue to eye the 640 – 670 range to clean up and market any remaining Old Crop inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop. While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: The July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/23 indicating support between 593 and 565, which has held so far. Any follow through buying from this reversal could trigger fund short covering and fuel a bigger bounce to test nearby resistance between 655 and 669, with further resistance near the April high of 718. 

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: Following the recent break, the July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/22, indicating short-term support near 807.  The break below Tuesday’s (5/23) low puts the 807 support level in jeopardy, with the next major support level between 736 and 716 if it does not hold.  If 807 can hold, follow-through buying may put the market in position to rally and test resistance between 885 and 917.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. Wet conditions have delayed some planting and raised some prevent planting concerns which could continue to influence the market and generate better selling opportunities in the coming months.  We are in no hurry to sell right now with everything going on.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/22, indicating the market has found short-term support near 793. Technical follow-through buying could put the market in position to test resistance between 830 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2. If not, support below 793 may be found between 770 and 760.

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update May 26, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, May 29, 2023, in observance of Memorial Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 601.75 11
DEC ’23 532 16
DEC ’24 512.5 10.5
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1341 17
NOV ’23 1190.75 18.5
NOV ’24 1163 14
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 613.75 9.5
SEP ’23 627.5 10.25
JUL ’24 669.75 8.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 822.5 4.5
SEP ’23 817 5.25
JUL ’24 761.5 8.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 815.25 9.75
SEP ’23 818.75 10.75
SEP ’24 782.75 8.5
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4199.25 39.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 72.5 0.67
Gold
AUG ’23 1959.8 -2.5

  • Corn is trading higher today and is on track for a positive close on the week in both the July and Dec contracts.

  • Prices have rallied 50 cents from their lows seven days ago as concerning dry weather forecasts are projected over the Corn Belt for the next 10 days.

  • There is concern over the Chinese economy, with growth expectations being revised lower there according to Bloomberg, and demand for corn may lessen as they opt to feed wheat instead.

  • Helping the markets are talks about a resolution to the debt ceiling that may be reached by Monday.

  • Soybeans, soybean oil, and meal are all trading higher today due to the dry forecast. Lower soybean meal has been a big bearish influence.

  • Palm oil is up for the third consecutive day as the potential El Nino pattern could lead to drought conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia this year.

  • Argentina’s soy crop is reportedly 78% harvested and local exchanges are estimating production at just 21 mmt, 6 mmt lower than the most recent USDA estimate.

  • Argentina typically exports 14% of their soy crop, but crush is expected to be down 5.4 mmt in the coming year due to the extreme drought conditions.

  • All three wheat products are trading higher today with the poor HRW wheat crop, as well as weather concerns in Russia.

  • Russia’s spring wheat areas are forecast to be hot and dry, and ship traffic in the Black Sea is restricted with Russia intentionally slowing things down.

  • There has been confirmation that US mills have imported wheat supplies from both Poland and Germany into the southwest and Texas Gulf.

  • Paris milling wheat is higher, and French wheat is rated 93% good to excellent despite reports of heat and dryness there. Russia continues to dominate the export market with their cheap offers.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: May 26, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 595 4.25
DEC ’23 525.25 9.25
DEC ’24 508 6
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1337.25 13.25
NOV ’23 1184.5 12.25
NOV ’24 1157 8
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 612.5 8.25
SEP ’23 625.5 8.25
JUL ’24 669 7.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 831.75 13.75
SEP ’23 824 12.25
JUL ’24 755.5 2.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 818.25 12.75
SEP ’23 821 13
SEP ’24 774.25 9.5
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4166.75 7
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 72.51 0.68
Gold
AUG ’23 1972 9.7

  • Corn is trading slightly higher in the front month but lower in the deferred contracts as tight on-hand supplies support nearby corn.

  • The Corn Belt is still forecast to be dry over the next 10 days but there are some chances for light rains and temperatures should remain above normal.

  • Today’s focus will be the export sales report which will need to take into account last week’s sales cancellation of 10.7 mb by China, but this may already be priced in.

  • According to the US Department of Energy, ethanol weekly stocks fell by 5% to 22.041 mln bbl, and analysts were expecting 22.978.

  • Soybeans continue to be pulled lower by soybean meal, but soybean oil has trended slightly higher over the past few days thanks to increases in crude oil.

  • The front month crush margins keep getting tighter for processors and it doesn’t help that Brazil is shipping Argentina soybeans for them to crush to keep plants open.

  • Rains in areas of Argentina are slowing planting progress, but the rains are helping with soil moisture which should improve the outlook for upcoming wheat and barley crops. 

  • Palm oil futures may increase significantly in the second half of this year due to an El Niño weather event.

  • All three wheat products are lower again as rains falling in the southern Plains trigger selling despite the fact that the poor crop likely won’t benefit too much from it at this point.

  • The situation in the Black Sea hasn’t improved and Russia is still refusing to allow ships into Ukraine’s largest port, and no ships have moved out of the other two ports for the past six days.

  • Russia’s wheat crop is now estimated at 86 mmt according to IKAR which is up from the previous estimate of 84 mmt. IKAR also boosted potential exports from 42 mmt to 44 mmt.

  • Today’s export sales report is not expected to show much activity on the trade wire as Russia picks up most of the export business. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Grain Market Insider: May 25, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, May 29, 2023, in observance of Memorial Day

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn closed mixed with old crop prices moving higher for the fourth consecutive day. Export sales were disappointing for both 22/23 and 23/24.

  • Soybeans closed lower with new crop prices breaking below their recent lows. A continued push higher in the US dollar and poor soybean export sales added pressure.

  • Above average 22/23 soybean meal export sales did not help support soybean meal today, and soybean oil traded higher with palm oil despite a sharp drop in crude.

  • Wheat settled mixed across the board with HRW posting the strongest gains. Wheat export sales were a marketing year low for 22/23.

  • To see updated US Drought Monitor and US 8-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. July corn touched the lower end of the target range of 575 – 600 with a high of 575-1/2, which put it 30 cents off last week’s low. If you still have Old Crop bushels to sell, consider using this rally to begin pricing some of those remaining bushels and adding incremental sales up to 600. Another thing to consider is that there is about a 65-cent inversion from the July contract to the September contract, which may be lost when bids roll from one contract to the other in the next month or so.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 new crop. Planting is nearly complete and the volatile weather months still ahead. December corn has dropped nearly 120 cents from its January high, and with that drop, much of the weather risk premium has eroded away. With drought still looming in the WCB and the funds carrying a 92k contract short position, we continue to target the 590 – 630 range in the December futures to suggest adding cash sales. If you happen to not have any New Crop sold, you should consider targeting the 550 – 560 area to begin pricing bushels.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • July corn was the strong leg of the corn market as a firm cash market tone and end user buying supports the old crop prices, but weak demand tone pressured the corn market overall.

  • USDA weekly export sales were disappointing again this week  For the week of May 12-18, old crop sales saw net reductions of 75,200 MT, and new crop sales of 52,100 MT, both were at the lower end of expectations. This was the third week out of the last four that old crop sales were negative on the week.

  • Weather models are showing warmer temperatures and limited rainfall over the core of the Corn Belt into early June, as a high-pressure ridge is developing over this region. Weather forecasts after Memorial Day will be key for potential precipitation to develop around the June 5-6 window.

  • June corn options expire on Friday, which could bring some volatility to the market as prices tend to drift to areas on large open interest. The 600 strike price holds the largest amount of open interest going into Friday.

  • The trend higher in the Dollar Index continued today, as the dollar traded to its highest levels since early March, which may help limit gains in the grain commodity markets on the session.

Above: The corn market has recovered somewhat from being oversold, and stochastic indicators have crossed back over to the upside, which can be supportive. The July contract has found support between 550 and 530, with further support near the 2021 September low of 497-1/2. Nearby resistance sits near 600 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • July soybeans found support last week just above the 1300 level. While the month of May has been a rough one for the soy complex, the market remains in a seasonal window conducive for upside volatility and opportunity. Given the oversold nature of the market, combined with a still tight Old Crop domestic balance, continue to hold on progressing any Old Crop sales for now.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time. As we continue through planting season, favorable weather conditions and South American competition have pressed US prices down nearly 17% from the beginning of the year. The potential remains for a tighter New Crop balance sheet, as the US Drought Monitor map remains concerning. We would consider recommending the next sales in the 1350 to 1400 area.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans traded lower today, with most of the losses in the deferred months and July only closing half a penny lower. Poor soybean export sales and the decline in soybean meal weighed on the bean market. Soybean oil closed higher despite lower crude.

  • Soybean meal export sales were a bright spot today coming in at 341,000 tons for 22/23. Poland was the top noted soybean meal buyer last week.

  • The weekly export sales report reported increases of 4.2 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, a low number, but at least there were not any net cancellations. Export shipments were 10.6 mb and were above the 13.0 mb needed each week.

  • Palm oil closed 3% higher today, finally showing signs of life as the Malaysian Palm Oil Board raised some concerns about production in the coming year with El Niño potentially becoming a problem in southeast Asia. This should support soybean oil.

  • Brazil’s record soybean crop is now estimated near 157 mmt, while Argentina is expecting just 21 mmt, significantly less than the USDA’s estimate of 27 mmt. Rains are also now slowing down harvest in Argentina.

Above: Soybean prices have fallen to near 1300 and have found some support near 1304.  The market continues to show signs of being oversold and appears to be consolidating.  Stochastic indicators have crossed to the upside, which is considered positive, and could be supportive if reversal action occurs.  Should the 1304 support level fail, the next area of support may be found near the July 2022 and November 2021 lows of 1288 and 1181 respectively. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported a net cancellation of 1.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23, but an increase of 9.0 mb for 23/24.

  • The wheat complex had an overall mixed close with Chicago contracts lower, with gains in K.C. and Minneapolis futures. Even though rains are popping up over the western Plains, and the SRW areas are mostly dry.

  • Some of today’s weakness may have stemmed from rains beginning to fall in Argentina. While it is too late to help corn and beans, it may improve soil moisture for their wheat planting.

  • Russian wheat export FOB offers are now said to be as low as $240 per ton, as they continue to dominate the export front.

  • It has been confirmed that EU wheat has been imported from Germany and Poland into the southeastern US, contributing to weakness of futures.

  • There are potential demand concerns down the road, with reports that China’s economy is slowing, China has a rise in covid cases, and as of this writing, there has been no resolution to the US debt ceiling issue. This has also sent energy and financial markets lower, acting as an anchor on the grain complex.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. The market is down more than 300 cents from its October high and has become extremely oversold. The July contract may also post its 8th consecutive down month in a row at prices not seen since early 2021, even though wheat inventories of major exporting countries are anticipated to fall to 16 year lows. With the market being this oversold and a fund net position short nearly 113k contracts, we continue to eye the 640 – 670 range to clean up and market any remaining Old Crop inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop. While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: The July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/23 indicating support between 593 and 565 has held so far. Any follow through buying from this reversal could trigger fund short covering and fuel a bigger bounce to test nearby resistance between 655 and 669, with further resistance near the April high of 718.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: Following the recent break, the July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/22, indicating short-term support near 807.  The break below Tuesday’s (5/23) low puts the 807 support level in jeopardy, with the next major support level between 736 and 716 if it does not hold.  If 807 can hold, follow-through buying may put the market in position to rally and test resistance between 885 and 917.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. Wet conditions have delayed some planting and raised some prevent planting concerns which could continue to influence the market and generate better selling opportunities in the coming months.  We are in no hurry to sell right now with everything going on.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/22, indicating the market has found short-term support near 793. Technical follow-through buying could put the market in position to test resistance between 830 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2. If not, support below 793 may be found between 770 and 760.

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update May 25, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, May 29, 2023, in observance of Memorial Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 591.25 4
DEC ’23 520.75 0.75
DEC ’24 505.5 0.25
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1327 2.5
NOV ’23 1181.5 -3.5
NOV ’24 1157.75 -1.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 614 7.75
SEP ’23 626.5 7.5
JUL ’24 666.75 6.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 827.5 15.25
SEP ’23 819.75 12
JUL ’24 762 8.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 809.5 10.5
SEP ’23 812.5 11
SEP ’24 764.75 -9.5
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4152.5 26.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 72.31 -2.03
Gold
AUG ’23 1965.5 -17.6

  • Corn is drifting slightly lower after another week of poor export sales and concern over outside markets as the debt ceiling issue remains unresolved and the deadline fast approaching.

  • Forecasts for the Midwest are calling for warm and dry conditions over the next two to three weeks, but some European models are calling for scattered showers, which may help cool temperatures down.

  • Export sales for the week ending May 18 showed net sales cancellations of 3.0 mb, which was down 78% from the previous week. There was an increase of 2.1 mb for 23/24, and shipments were 59.2 mb, above the 41.1 mb needed each week.

  • There is concern over the Chinese economy, with growth expectations being revised lower there according to Bloomberg, and demand for corn may lessen as they opt to feed wheat instead.

  • Soybeans are lower after poor export sales and another drop in soybean meal that has taken July futures to their lowest levels since November 2022.

  • As the dollar rises today, crude oil has fallen over two dollars a barrel and is trading just above 72 dollars a barrel. This has not affected the soybean oil market, which is trading higher with higher palm oil.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 4.2 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and last week’s export shipments of 10.6 mb were below the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.

  • Argentina’s soy crop is reportedly 78% harvested and local exchanges are estimating production at just 21 mmt, 6 mmt lower than the most recent USDA estimate.

  • All three wheat products are trading higher today despite net sales reductions in the export sales report. The gridlock in the Black Sea may be supporting prices.

  • The USDA reported net sales cancellations of 1.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23, but an increase of 9.0 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 14.2 mb were far below the 39.2 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.

  • There has been confirmation that US mills have imported wheat supplies from both Poland and Germany into the southwest and Texas Gulf.

  • In Argentina, rain has begun to fall, which is too late to be beneficial to their corn and bean crops and is delaying that harvest, but will be beneficial for soil moisture in the upcoming wheat planting.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: May 25, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 589 1.75
DEC ’23 520.25 0.25
DEC ’24 503.75 -1.5

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1326.25 1.75
NOV ’23 1182.5 -2.5
NOV ’24 1156.5 -3

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 606.5 0.25
SEP ’23 618.75 -0.25
JUL ’24 659.25 -1

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 808.25 -4
SEP ’23 804.75 -3
JUL ’24 750 -3.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 798 -1
SEP ’23 800.25 -1.25
SEP ’24 764.75 -9.5

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4149.75 23.75

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 72.86 -1.48

Gold

AUG ’23 1980 -3.1

  • Corn is trading slightly higher in the front month but lower in the deferred contracts as tight on hand supplies support nearby corn.

  • The Corn Belt is still forecast to be dry over the next 10 days but there are some chances for light rains and temperatures should remain above normal.

  • Today’s focus will be the export sales report which will need to take into account  last week’s sales cancellation of 10.7 mb by China, but this may already be priced in.

  • According to the US Department of Energy, ethanol weekly stocks fell by 5% to 22.041 mln bbl, and analysts were expecting 22.978.

  • Soybeans continue to be pulled lower by soybean meal, but soybean oil has trended slightly higher over the past few days thanks to increases in crude oil.

  • The front month crush margins keep getting tighter for processors and it doesn’t help that Brazil is shipping Argentina soybeans for them to crush to keep plants open.

  • Rains in areas of Argentina are slowing planting progress, but the rains are helping with soil moisture which should improve the outlook for upcoming wheat and barley crops. 

  • Palm oil futures may increase significantly in the second half of this year due to an El Niño weather event.

  • All three wheat products are lower again as rains falling in the southern Plains trigger selling despite the fact that the poor crop likely won’t benefit too much from it at this point.

  • The situation in the Black Sea hasn’t improved and Russia is still refusing to allow ships into Ukraine’s largest port, and no ships have moved out of the other two ports for the past six days.

  • Russia’s wheat crop is now estimated at 86 mmt according to IKAR which is up from the previous estimate of 84 mmt. IKAR also boosted potential exports from 42 mmt to 44 mmt.

  • Today’s export sales report is not expected to show much activity on the trade wire as Russia picks up most of the export business. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Grain Market Insider: May 24, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn traded both sides of unchanged in volatile trade.  A dry forecast and firmer cash basis helped to support, but weakness in the wheat market dragged on prices.

  • There was little supportive news for soybeans in today’s trade as continued weakness from abundant and less expensive South American supplies hung over the market, with current offers $35 – $45 per ton cheaper than the US.

  • Soybean oil was the bright spot in the soybean complex as it gained support from higher crude oil, and while crush margins were weaker today, they remain profitable and supportive with Board Crush margins in the July contracts near 93 cents/bu.

  • Record Illinois SRW yields estimated by the Illinois Wheat Association’s crop tour and the threat of more imports of European wheat into the US weighed heavily on the wheat complex.

  • The US dollar broke out of its range to make new recent highs, which likely added resistance to commodities.

  • Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials Bullard and Kashkari have raised expectations for a protracted period of higher interest rates, which could be supportive of the US Dollar.

  • To see the updated US 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, and the updated Brazil 2 week precipitation forecast, scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section. 

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. July corn touched the lower end of the target range of 575 – 600 with a high of 575-1/2, which put it 30 cents off last week’s low. If you still have Old Crop bushels to sell, consider using this rally to begin pricing some of those remaining bushels and adding incremental sales up to 600. Another thing to consider is that there is about a 65-cent inversion from the July contract to the September contract, which may be lost when bids roll from one contract to the other in the next month or so.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 new crop. Planting is nearly complete and the volatile weather months still ahead. December corn has dropped nearly 120 cents from its January high, and with that drop, much of the weather risk premium has eroded away. With drought still looming in the WCB and the funds carrying a 92k contract short position, we continue to target the 590 – 630 range in the December futures to suggest adding cash sales. If you happen to not have any New Crop sold, you should consider targeting the 550 – 560 area to begin pricing bushels.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Corn market fought the trend in other grains, and finished the day with moderate gains, led by the July contract.  July futures were pushed higher by short covering and buying into the bull spreads, with the market watching the weather forecast for the Midwest over the next couple weeks.

  • Strong selling in the wheat market and a fading soybean market throughout the session limited the corn market’s upside on the day as prices slipped off session highs.

  • Weather models are showing predicted warmer temperatures and limited rainfall over the core of the Corn Belt into early June as a high-pressure ridge is developing over this region.  Weather forecasts after Memorial Day will be keys for a potential precipitation to develop around the June 5-6 window.

  • Ethanol margins remain strong, but corn usage for ethanol production is still behind the required pace to reach USDA target.  The weekly ethanol report saw production slip to 983,000 barrels/day, down from last week and last year’s levels.  A total of 96.8 mb of corn was used last week for the ethanol grind, down from 99.9 mb from last year.

  • Private Brazil Crop Analyst, Agroconsult, raised their projection for the second crop Brazil corn harvest to 102.4 MMT, which is up 11% from their last projection and well above both USDA and CONAB current projections, as the overall condition of the Brazil 2nd crop corn remains strong.

Above: The corn market has recovered somewhat from being oversold, and stochastic indicators have crossed back over to the upside, which can be supportive. The July contract has found support between 550 and 530, with further support near the 2021 September low of 497-1/2. Nearby resistance sits near 600 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • July soybeans found support last week just above the 1300 level. While the month of May has been a rough one for the soy complex, the market remains in a seasonal window conducive for upside volatility and opportunity. Given the oversold nature of the market, combined with a still tight Old Crop domestic balance, continue to hold on progressing any Old Crop sales for now.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time. As we continue through planting season, favorable weather conditions and South American competition have pressed US prices down nearly 17% from the beginning of the year. The potential remains for a tighter New Crop balance sheet, as the US Drought Monitor map remains concerning. We would consider recommending the next sales in the 1350 to 1400 area.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front month July higher, but all deferred contracts lower, with additional pressure coming from the decline in soybean meal.  

  • Soybean meal led soybeans lower today, but soybean oil moved higher despite another decline in palm oil. Higher crude oil has been supportive as Saudi Arabia hints at production cuts.

  • Tomorrow’s export sales report is not expected to be very friendly for soybeans, as Brazil’s cheaper offers get scooped up on the global market. If this trend continues, the USDA will likely decrease US exports and increase the carryout.

  • China is attempting to use fewer soy products and corn in favor of wheat for feed needs, which is weighing on soybean meal, but Brazil’s recent shipments of soybeans to Argentina to be crushed has hurt prices as well. The bullish thought was that the US would pick up some meal export business from Argentina due to their poor crop.

Above: Soybean prices have fallen to near 1300 and have found some support near 1304.  The market continues to show signs of being oversold and appears to be consolidating.  Stochastic indicators have crossed to the upside, which is considered positive, and could be supportive if reversal action occurs.  Should the 1304 support level fail, the next area of support may be found near the July 2022 and November 2021 lows of 1288 and 1181 respectively. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • KC futures led the wheat complex lower today. While most of the Midwest looks drier for the next 10 days or so, parts of Oklahoma and Texas are getting good moisture. Though this moisture is perceived largely as negative, it may be too little too late to help the crop, and there is some concern that it may cause some quality issues.

  • The Illinois Wheat Association crop tour came out with a record breaking 97 bushel per acre yield for Illinois’ SRW crop, versus the USDA’s estimate of 78 bpa.

  • The US Dollar Index continues to trend higher, nearly reaching the 104 level today, and because it tends to have an inverse relationship with the wheat market, it may have contributed to today’s weakness.

  • China has imported 6 mmt of wheat during the first four months of the year. This is up 61% from last year as they want to use more feed wheat versus corn and soybeans, with most of it sourced from Australia.

  • Russia continues to dominate world wheat exports, with FOB offers cheaper than the US that are reportedly as low as $245 per ton.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. The market is down more than 300 cents from its October high and has become extremely oversold. The July contract may also post its 8th consecutive down month in a row at prices not seen since early 2021, even though wheat inventories of major exporting countries are anticipated to fall to 16 year lows. With the market being this oversold and a fund net position short nearly 113k contracts, we continue to eye the 640 – 670 range to clean up and market any remaining Old Crop inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop. While we are looking for stronger markets to present themselves in this currently weak environment, there are factors that could be supportive, should they occur. Such as any escalation of the Ukraine war or disruption of grain movement in the Black Sea, or a significant devaluation of the US Dollar back to 2021 levels, as that market is showing characteristics of a potential drop.

Above: The July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/23 indicating support between 593 and 565 has held so far. Any follow through buying from this reversal could trigger fund short covering and fuel a bigger bounce to test nearby resistance between 655 and 669, with further resistance near the April high of 718.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. The 2024 market has limited liquidity, and it may be until mid-summer before recommendations are posted. 

Above: Following the recent break, the July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/22, indicating short-term support near 807.  The break below Tuesday’s (5/23) low puts the 807 support level in jeopardy, with the next major support level between 736 and 716 if it does not hold.  If 807 can hold, follow-through buying may put the market in position to rally and test resistance between 885 and 917.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. Wet conditions have delayed some planting and raised some prevent planting concerns which could continue to influence the market and generate better selling opportunities in the coming months.  We are in no hurry to sell right now with everything going on.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract posted a bullish reversal on 5/22, indicating the market has found short-term support near 793. Technical follow-through buying could put the market in position to test resistance between 830 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2. If not, support below 793 may be found between 770 and 760.

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update May 24, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 584 6.5
DEC ’23 522 5.25
DEC ’24 507.5 3
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1326.75 4.25
NOV ’23 1187.75 0
NOV ’24 1163.5 -0.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 611.75 -10.5
SEP ’23 624.5 -10
JUL ’24 665.25 -8.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 820.25 -21.25
SEP ’23 814.5 -19.25
JUL ’24 758.75 -7.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 808.25 -12.5
SEP ’23 811.5 -12.75
SEP ’24 774.25 11.25
S&P 500
JUN ’23 4122.25 -36.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’23 74.22 1.31
Gold
AUG ’23 1989.4 -3.4

  • Corn is trading higher again today and is on track for the third consecutive close. There has been no real bullish fundamental news, so the rally seems technical and seasonal.

  • Trade is focused on the financial situation regarding the debt ceiling and when an agreement will be reached. This has negatively affected the equity markets and the deadline is this Friday.

  • China has been purchasing more wheat and less corn and has been sourcing primarily from Australia. This adds concerns to more sales cancellations.

  • Both the northern and southern Plains are forecast to receive rains which are much needed, but dryness is still expected for the heart of the Corn Belt in the short term.

  • Soybeans began the day lower, but are trading higher now, along with soybean meal and oil. A jump in crude oil by over a dollar a barrel has been supportive.

  • Commercial crude inventories fell by 12.5 million barrels for the week ending May 19. This comes as Saudi Arabia is signaling that production cuts may be incoming, driving up crude prices and helping the soy complex.

  • July soybean meal is making new lows as Brazil exports soybeans into Argentina, so that they can offset their crush facilities form their poor crop.

  • Soymeal has been under pressure with China saying they will use less soymeal and corn for feed and more wheat, and soybean oil has found no support from palm oil, which continues to fall.

  • Wheat is trading lower today after a pop yesterday caused by headlines that Russia was blocking ship traffic to Ukraine’s largest port and is slowing other traffic in the Black Sea.

  • Chinese wheat imports for the first four months of the year are 6 mmt, which is up 61% from a year ago, with the primary seller being Australia. This comes as China looks to utilize more wheat instead of corn and soy for feed.

  • There have been reports of wheat being imported into the US from Europe to take advantage of the cheaper prices, which has added to bearish sentiment.

  • Rain continues to fall in North Dakota and the northern Plains, which is delaying plantings, and rains in the southern Plains threaten wheat quality in early harvest.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: May 24, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 574.25 -3.25
DEC ’23 516 -0.75
DEC ’24 504.25 -0.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1317 -5.5
NOV ’23 1179 -8.75
NOV ’24 1156 -7.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 615 -7.25
SEP ’23 627 -7.5
JUL ’24 669 -4.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 830.75 -10.75
SEP ’23 824 -9.75
JUL ’24 759 -7

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 814.75 -6
SEP ’23 817.5 -6.75
SEP ’24 774.25 11.25

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4144 -14.75

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 74.07 1.16

Gold

AUG ’23 1997.7 4.9

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning as the speedy pace of planting pressures prices.

  • North Dakota is the outlier in planting progress with wet fields causing them to be only 32% complete with over 2.6 million acres left to plant.

  • Traders are uneasy buyers as the threat of more Chinese cancellations remains a threat.

  • Brazil is expected to harvest a very large second corn crop thanks to high yields. They are projected to export 54 million tonnes of corn in 22/23.

  • Soybean futures closed down hard yesterday wiping out all gains from the previous day and are lower again this morning along with both soy products.

  • July soybean meal is making new lows as Brazil exports soybeans into Argentina so that they can offset their crush facilities form their poor crop.

  • Brazilian soy exports have reportedly reached 15.9 mmt in May which was above expectations of 15.76 mmt.

  • In the EU, soybean imports fell by 12% for the 22/23 year, while rapeseed imports rose by 40%.

  • All three wheat products closed higher yesterday but all three are lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex.

  • Yesterday, markets got a boost from the report that Russia was not allowing Ukraine’s largest port to receive vessels, and Russia is reportedly slowing down other ship traffic as well.

  • Soft red winter wheat yields in Illinois are now being estimated at a whopping 97.12 bpa by the Illinois wheat association which exceeds the USDA’s forecast of 78 bpa.

  • Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen by 4.6% so far in the season that began last July with wheat exports declining by 18%.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.