|

Opening Update: June 20, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 640 -0.25
DEC ’23 591.5 -6
DEC ’24 541.75 0.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1466 -0.5
NOV ’23 1331 -11.25
NOV ’24 1234 -4.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 678.25 -9.75
SEP ’23 691.5 -10
JUL ’24 726.75 -9.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 832.25 -9.75
SEP ’23 828.5 -10.5
JUL ’24 805 -1.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 844.25 -9.25
SEP ’23 848.25 -8.25
SEP ’24 798.5 8.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4439 -14.75

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 72.09 0.16

Gold

AUG ’23 1964.5 -6.7

  • Corn gapped higher on last night’s open with Dec corn getting through the 6 dollar mark but has slowly faded since and is now trading lower.

  • Rains over the weekend were spotty with decent coverage in Iowa but below expected and spotty rains in the rest of the Corn Belt.

  • Rain chances for Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana look light over the next 7 days, and temperatures are expected to get into the 90’s which could stress already low soil moisture.

  • Last week funds became buyers buying back 46,637 contracts leaving them with a net long position of 2,145 contracts.

  • Soybeans opened strong last night along with corn but have slipped since as funds take profits and producers who received decent rains made cash sales.

  • Goldman Sachs downgraded their forecast of Chinese GDP growth which traders think could curt soybean demand.

  • Deferred soybean meal contracts turned lower overnight as well as soybean oil, but crude oil is unchanged so far on the day.

  • Funds were buyers of soybeans by 33,901 contracts last week increasing their net long position to 47,882 contracts.

  • Wheat futures are lower this morning along with corn and beans but have not seen the rally corn has enjoyed and has remained in a sideways trading range.

  • Weather has not been supportive for wheat futures as the southern Plains have received plenty of rainfall over the past month and the Dakota’s as well for spring wheat.

  • Russia has stated that the Ukrainian export corridor will not be extended, but at this point traders have heard this so often it has become an idle threat.

  • Funds were buyers of wheat last week by 6,044 contracts, reducing their net short position to 113,430 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Grain Market Insider: June 16, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Short covering and technical buying on dry weather forecasts push December corn to close over the 200-day moving average.

  • Dry weather and the fact that 51% of the soybean crop currently sits in drought-stricken areas rallied November soybeans to close at their highest level since March.

  • Both products lent support to soybeans today as further technical buying shot soybean meal to close with a 5% gain and bean oil, a 2.5% gain, which added 8-1/2 cents to December Board Crush margins.

  • Short covering and spillover strength from corn and soybeans mixed with degrading French and Argentine crops had all three wheat classes closing sharply higher on the day.

  • To see the current US 6 – 10 day US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  •  No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. July corn is up over 90 cents from the May 18th low. Elevators are already rolling their bids from the July contract to September. While the price inverse between the two has been nearly cut in half in just six trading days, September is still trading at a 46-cent discount to July. The risk remains the loss of this premium as elevators roll from pricing off July to pricing off September. Any remaining old crop bushels should be getting priced into this rally. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Corn — either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No action is recommended at this time for New Crop. Continued dryness has pushed the Dec 23 contract into the lower end of the price window we’ve been targeting for a number of weeks now: 590 – 630. No official recommendation yet as we are leaning toward the upper end of this target price range for the moment.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds.

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • The corn market saw additional buying strength to end the week, and the market pushed through technical resistance. This triggered additional short covering and money flow as weather forecasts keep buyers active in the market.

  • December corn futures closed over the 200-day moving average for the first time since Nov 18 and crossed over top a long-term, down trendline during the session. The strong price action will keep buyers active going into next week if the weather forecast remains a concern.

  • Despite demand concerns and ongoing Brazil corn harvest, the corn market is clearly being led by the weather. Current forecasts keep threatening weather of dry conditions and limited rainfall into next week.

  • Market upside could be limited by the potential competition from Brazil corn harvest. Lower priced, fresh supplies are starting to hit the global market.

  • The cash market is staying supportive of futures prices as the national corn index is trending above multi-year averages, and dry weather concerns have triggered some end user buying to cover potential corn needs. The index gained 14 cents this week.

Above: The corn market has had quite a run recently on weather concerns, and the September contract has pushed into a resistance area between 560 and 585. Should the market break through the 585 level, it may be poised to test the congestion area between 595 and 625. If not, initial support below the market may be found near 535 and again between 505 and 515.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell 2022 Old Crop soybeans. Grain Market Insider continues to recommend using this rally to clear out the last of the bushels in the bin. July beans are up nearly 200 cents from the May 31st low. If the weather pattern stays dry, prices could continue to push higher; yet the first significant moisture added to the forecast poses the risk of erasing this added weather premium just as fast (or faster) given the size of South American supplies and their discounted price. This will be the last Grain Market Insider recommendation for 2022 soybeans as we’re emptying the bins on this rally and moving fully on to 2023 and 2024 crops. 

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling New Crop 2023 soybeans at this time. November soybeans have rallied over 200 cents from the May 31st low and today entered the target range we’ve been looking for: 1300 to 1350. The upper end of this range was nearly tagged with an intraday high of 1347, so we are recommending pricing some new crop. KC Wheat has demonstrated that domestic drought conditions do not necessarily guarantee higher domestic prices if global supplies are ample. US Wheat country has been extremely dry for many months, yet prices are about even with where prices were in late 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine. Global soybean supplies could be record large, and this could be a rally risk factor.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans skyrocketed higher again today to mark $1.02 in gains in just two days for the November contract. For the week, Nov beans gained $1.38 as dry weather triggered funds to get more aggressive with purchases.

  • Both soy products rallied today as well with soybean meal taking the lead today with gains of over 5% in all contracts, but soybean oil was the leader yesterday following higher palm oil and crude.

  • Drought data revealed that 51% of the soybean crop is experiencing drought. Dryness in the eastern Corn Belt is expected throughout at least the next three days with better chances for showers in the western Belt.

  • Yesterday, bullish news came from the NOPA May crush report which saw 177.915 mb of beans crushed, a record for the month of May and 4% higher than the previous year. While export demand has been poor, domestic demand has been enough for markets to feel the squeeze of tight on hand supplies.

Above: The market continues to be strong with traders eyeing the weather maps. The August contract is nearing its April highs in the neighborhood of 1383, and if the market can penetrate those levels, it may be poised to test the psychological level of 1400. If prices were to set back, initial support could be found between 1290 and 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat futures classes again posted double digit gains, as the weather forecast for most of the Midwest looks dry for the next couple weeks, likely triggering short covering by the Funds as well.

  • Alongside US futures, Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher, ending their session with gains of 3.75 to 4.75 Euros per metric ton, well off the session high. US futures also closed off daily highs, likely due to profit taking after the strong rally.

  • Despite recent reports that the Russian government set a $240 (per ton) price floor on exports, this week their export prices are said to have hit a low of $230. This is sure to keep pressure on the US export market.

  • Supportive to wheat is the fact that El Nino could bring drought to Australia’s wheat growing region. Additionally, the French wheat crop conditions are worsening with a rating of 85% good to excellent, which is down 10% over the past three weeks.

  • Argentina’s wheat crop was recently downgraded by the Rosario Grain Exchange by 3 mmt and is currently below the USDA’s estimate.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. July pushed through the upper end of the 640 – 670 range we’ve been targeting. With harvest coming upon us, any remaining old crop bushels should be moved to make room for new crop. There will be no New Alerts posted for the 2022 crop going forward.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop at this time. Prices have rallied nicely off of lows to start the month of June. With continued Black Sea tensions July of 2024 futures prices should be able to build off of the recent lows. We are currently targeting the 750-775 area to advance further on sales.

Above: September wheat was able to break out and close above the 50-day moving average and the May highs, which is supportive and could portend a change in trend. Resistance for the market could still be found between 670 and 724 with the 100-day moving average resting near 684. Initial support below the market (should prices turn lower) may be found between 625 and 610 and again near 573.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. While Crop ratings have improved and the Black Sea export corridor remains open, questions remain about the size of the HRW crop, whether Russia will continue to agree to keep the Black Sea corridor open, and what production looks like in Europe and Australia. We continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

Above: The bullish reversal from May 31 indicates that there is support near 760. US harvest selling pressure should keep upside limited to any near-term rallies. Resistance may be found above the market between 833 and 850, with further support resting below the market near 736-1/4. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell 2022 Old Crop MINNEAPOLIS Wheat. Prices haven’t moved much over the last couple of weeks, and it’s disappointing to see the lack of upside opportunities that the market has offered following the large snowfall and the late start to planting this spring. Yet, the marketing year for Old Crop is quickly winding down, and any additional upside opportunities may be more difficult to come by before New Crop harvest, especially given record European wheat shipments and falling Russian prices. Also, we typically recommend finishing up sales on any remaining Old Crop bushels by mid-June, as bids will soon shift from the July to September contract, and there is currently no carry offered.

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The September ’23 contract had a 120-cent range in the month of May where it found support just above 770. While the planting has largely been completed, dryness in some areas is increasing. With the market still largely oversold on the weekly charts and a full growing season ahead of us, we are not looking to make any sales right now.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract continues to be weak and consolidate. With winter wheat harvest on the horizon, spillover selling pressure could plague the spring wheat market in the weeks to come. Resistance currently sits between 820 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2. Support below the market may be found between 770 and 760. 

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update June 16, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 631.25 8
DEC ’23 587.5 13
DEC ’24 533.5 3.25
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1464.25 36
NOV ’23 1337 44.75
NOV ’24 1228.75 10
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 687.5 26
SEP ’23 700.25 27.5
JUL ’24 733 22.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 845.5 32.75
SEP ’23 841.75 33
JUL ’24 812 33.5
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 851.75 19
SEP ’23 854.25 20.75
SEP ’24 812 21.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4476.25 5
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 71.12 0.31
Gold
AUG ’23 1972.2 1.5

  • Grain markets are sharply higher again at midday as the weather forecast looks to remain mostly dry for the corn belt, and funds appear to be bailing out of short positions.

  • Yesterday, December corn closed above the 100 day moving average for the first time since November. Currently it is above the 200 day moving average (which is at 5.84).

  • There is no longer a risk of frost in Brazil (for now), and there were no widespread issues for the crop, despite the recent cold temperatures.

  • July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $4.84 per bushel. Export values are still cheaper compared to the US.

  • The EPA announcement on biofuel mandates is set for next week (after being rescheduled). There is some anticipation that it will be friendly to the soybean oil market.

  • Weather issues in Malaysia are supporting palm oil prices, which may be offering some support to soybean oil and soybeans as well.

  • The most recent drought monitor map shows worsening conditions in soybean growing regions, with 51% of the crop said to be in drought (vs 39% last week).

  • NOPA May crush came in at 177.9 mb. This was well above the trade’s anticipated 175.8 mb and was also a record for May.

  • July Chicago wheat is higher for the sixth out of the past seven days. Funds remain net short and are likely exiting positions, helping wheat to rally.

  • Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher and are currently trading about 6-7 Euros per ton above yesterday’s close.

  • This week, Russian export prices were said to hit a low of $230 per metric ton vs $240 last week. At these levels, they will continue to dominate on the export front. This does go against the recent reports that their government established a floor at $240.

  • The Black Sea grain deal is set to expire in mid July. At this point it seems unlikely that they will extend the deal again, but traders have heard that before.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: June 16, 2023

Bygmidev

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 632.5 9.25
DEC ’23 585 10.5
DEC ’24 535.75 5.5

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1444.5 16.25
NOV ’23 1314.75 22.5
NOV ’24 1232.5 13.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 668.75 7.25
SEP ’23 681 8.25
JUL ’24 717.25 6.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 820 7.25
SEP ’23 817.5 8.75
JUL ’24 778.5 22.5

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 838.5 5.75
SEP ’23 839.25 5.75
SEP ’24 790.25 0

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4473.75 2.5

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 70.68 -0.13

Gold

AUG ’23 1976.5 5.8

  • Corn is trading higher again today on continued dryness in the eastern Corn Belt which may turn out to be a high risk area in 2023.

  • The southwestern Corn Belt is forecast to receive moderate rains over the next few days while Wyoming and Colorado are dealing with flood watches.

  • Brazilian corn prices traded higher yesterday as a result of price movement in the US, and beans on the Bovespa exchange are trading at the equivalent of $4.84 per bushel.

  • Regardless of the dry weather, the US will have trouble competing with Brazil for exports as their corn crop is expected to be record large.

  • Soybeans are trading higher again this morning along with soybean meal and oil as dry weather continues to keep traders buying grains.

  • November soybeans have rallied $1.83 just since the end of May and are now threatening to close above the 100-day moving average for the first time since the beginning of the year.

  • Yesterday’s drought monitor showed very few areas across the Midwest that aren’t being threatened by drought at this time which is rare for the month of June.

  • NOPA crush that was released yesterday was also behind the rally with 177.915 mb being crushed, the highest ever for May.

  • All three wheat products are trading higher again today with support from the corn and soybean markets which are on fire. Funds will need to begin covering their large net short position.

  • In the US, ending wheat supplies for 23/24 are being estimated at their lowest levels in 16 years with the lowest ending stocks to use ratio in 10 years.

  • The winter wheat harvest is beginning and will be among the lowest in 50 years, and the spring wheat crop will be confined to its smallest area in 50 years.

  • In northern Europe, Russia, and India, conditions are dry, and in wheat growing regions of China, conditions are too wet.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Grain Market Insider: June 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn was sharply higher on a drier outlook for much of the corn belt over the next seven days and a continued expansion of drought in key corn producing areas according to the weekly updated drought monitor map.

  • Strong May NOPA soybean crush, strong weekly export sales and a continued surge higher in soybean oil all helped send soybean futures sharply higher.

  • Soybean oil continued its impressive June rally, closing over 4.4% higher, while soybean meal also traded higher on the day.

  • Spillover strength from corn and soybeans as well as a lower US Dollar Index helped propel all three wheat classes higher.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the 7-day NOAA Precipitation Outlook scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  •  No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. July corn has had nearly a 60-cent rally in the last couple of weeks. Expect volatility to remain in the market; a changing weather forecast can push the market significantly in either direction. If you still have Old Crop to sell, consider using this rally to begin pricing some of those bushels. Don’t forget, there is a significant inverse between the July and September futures contracts, which could be lost when bids get rolled from one contract to the next.   

  • No action is recommended at this time for New Crop. With dryness building in the Midwest and an estimated fund short position near 40k contracts, we continue to target the 590 – 630 range in the December futures to suggest adding cash sales. If you don’t happen to have any New Crop sold, you should consider targeting the 550 – 560 area to begin pricing bushels.  

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds.

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Corn prices surged higher on Thursday, fueled by concerns regarding weather forecasts remaining dry across large portions of the corn belt. Strong technical buying pushed prices through levels of resistance. December corn closed at its highest price level since February 27 and is trading 44 cents higher on the week.

  • Current drought monitor maps reflect the impacts of dry conditions across the corn belt as overall drought area expanded last week. With today’s weekly update, an estimated 57% of corn production areas in the US are experiencing some form of drought.

  • Weekly export sales were still disappointing last week, but the U.S. did sell 273,300 MT of old crop corn. This was the largest weekly total for old crop corn sales in the last five weeks.

  • Outside markets were supportive of the grain markets on Thursday as equity and energy futures saw buying support, helping build a “risk-on” trade during the day.

  • The weather forecast overall remains spotty as rainfall coverage is expected to be hit-or-miss for the next seven days. Temperatures are forecasted to warm over the corn belt, which will likely increase crop stress.

Above: The corn market has had quite a run recently on weather concerns, and the September contract has pushed into a resistance area between 560 and 585. Should the market break through the 585 level, it may be poised to test the congestion area between 595 and 625. If not, initial support below the market may be found near 535 and again between 505 and 515.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell 2022 Old Crop soybeans and take advantage of the recent rally. July soybeans have rallied nearly 160 cents from the May low and are approaching the 100-day moving average which should pose some resistance. Additionally, with a 60+ cent inverse to the August contract, much of that value may be lost as end users roll bids from the July contract. 

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time. A quick planting pace with favorable conditions and South American competition greatly pressured soybeans in April and May. The potential remains for a tighter New Crop balance sheet, as the US Drought Monitor map remains concerning. We would consider recommending the next sales in the 1300 to 1350 area.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans skyrocketed higher today along with both soybean meal and soybean oil, which gained nearly 4.50%. NOPA crush was released and was supportive, and weather forecasts have trended slightly drier into next week.

  • NOPA US crush for May 2023 was pegged at 177.915 mb of soybeans, which was a record for the month and 4% above May of 2022. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.872 billion bushels, which was below all trade guesses, and the average guess was 1.942. Stocks were up 5.5% from May 2022.

  • The dry weather has added support to the soy complex as well as the corn market, although soybeans have a wider window for beneficial rain to fall. Soil moisture has been extremely short in the eastern Corn Belt, and good rains will be needed to offset the coming high temperatures.

  • Argentina’s Rosario grain exchange cut their soybean production estimate again today by 5% to 20.5 mmt. The previous estimate was 21.5 mmt, both way below the USDA’s 25 mmt estimate.

  • Export sales for soybeans showed an increase of 17.6 mb for 22/23, which was up from the prior week and the 4-week average. There was an increase of 1.8 mb for 23/24, and last week’s export shipments were 5.2 mb, down 43% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average.

Above: The market continues to be strong with traders eyeing the weather maps. The August contract is nearing its April highs in the neighborhood of 1383, and if the market can penetrate those levels, it may be poised to test the psychological level of 1400. If prices were to set back, initial support could be found between 1290 and 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 6.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.

  • Spillover support from corn and soybeans certainly helped the wheat market rally today. The current weather market environment is sure to remain volatile, especially with markets closed Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.

  • Both the American and European weather models are aligning to show a dry forecast for the next 10 days across most of the corn belt, and this likely led to today’s rally. Short covering may have also played a part, especially in wheat, where the funds are said to still hold a net short of about 115,000 contracts.

  • The US Dollar Index was sharply lower today, which eased pressure on the wheat market, allowing it to run. In general, wheat and the US Dollar have an inverted relationship, meaning that when the dollar trades lower, wheat tends to trade higher (and vice versa).

  • The Russian government is said to have established a $240 per ton price floor on wheat exports for July and August. It remains to be seen if exporters will adhere to this, but these export values are far below US prices and may limit upside potential.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. The market is down more than 300 cents from its October high and has become extremely oversold. With good price action to start June, the market may be positioned for a short covering rally as new crop harvest quickly approaches. We continue to eye the 640 – 670 range to clean up and market any remaining Old Crop inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop at this time. Prices have rallied nicely off of lows to start the month of June. With continued Black Sea tensions July of 2024 futures prices should be able to build off of the recent lows. We are currently targeting the 750-775 area to advance further on sales.

Above: September wheat was able to break out and close above the 50-day moving average and the May highs, which is supportive and could portend a change in trend. Resistance for the market could still be found between 670 and 724 with the 100-day moving average resting near 684. Initial support below the market (should prices turn lower) may be found between 625 and 610 and again near 573.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. While Crop ratings have improved and the Black Sea export corridor remains open, questions remain about the size of the HRW crop, whether Russia will continue to agree to keep the Black Sea corridor open, and what production looks like in Europe and Australia. We continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

Above: The bullish reversal from May 31 indicates that there is support near 760. US harvest selling pressure should keep upside limited to any near-term rallies. Resistance may be found above the market between 833 and 850, with further support resting below the market near 736-1/4. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell 2022 Old Crop MINNEAPOLIS Wheat. Prices haven’t moved much over the last couple of weeks and it’s disappointing to see the lack of upside opportunities that the market has offered following the large snowfall and the late start to planting this spring. Yet, the marketing year for Old Crop is quickly winding down, and any additional upside opportunities may be more difficult to come by before New Crop harvest, especially given record European wheat shipments and falling Russian prices. Also, we typically recommend finishing up sales on any remaining Old Crop bushels by mid-June, as bids will soon shift from the July to September contract and there is currently no carry offered.

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The September ’23 contract had a 120-cent range in the month of May where it found support just above 770. While the planting has largely been completed, dryness in some areas is increasing. With the market still largely oversold on the weekly charts and a full growing season ahead of us, we are not looking to make any sales right now.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract continues to be weak and consolidate. With winter wheat harvest on the horizon, spillover selling pressure could plague the spring wheat market in the weeks to come. Resistance currently sits between 820 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2. Support below the market may be found between 770 and 760. 

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update June 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 620 12.25
DEC ’23 566 16.75
DEC ’24 525.25 8
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1421.25 33
NOV ’23 1275.25 35.25
NOV ’24 1213 21.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 645 14.75
SEP ’23 655.75 14.5
JUL ’24 696.5 12.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 800 14.25
SEP ’23 796.5 14.25
JUL ’24 767.75 11.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 827 17.75
SEP ’23 826.75 19
SEP ’24 781.75 -3.5
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4447.75 29.25
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 70.2 1.74
Gold
AUG ’23 1965.5 -3.4

  • The USDA reported an increase of 10.8 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 23/24.

  • Both the European and American weather forecast models have a drier forecast over the next 10 days. If the pressure ridge breaks down, it should allow moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Corn Belt, but weather should be dry for at least another week.

  • Chinese corn production still looks to be on track at 11.0 billion bushels. Also, on their Dalian Exchange, November corn is near one-year lows.

  • Brazil has not had reports of significant frost damage to their crop, despite the recent cold temperatures.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 17.6 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 1.8 mb for 23/24.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange reduced their estimate of the 22/23 Argentina soybean crop by 1 mmt (to 20.5 mmt).

  • July soybean oil closed above the 100 day moving average yesterday. This is the first time this has occurred in 2023.

  • Malaysian palm oil futures are higher for the third day in a row, giving a boost to soybean oil (and soybeans).

  • Today, the market will get NOPA crush data. Expectations are for May crush at 175.8 mb.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 6.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.

  • There will be some rains in France and Germany, which is pressuring both Matif rapeseed and wheat futures.

  • Higher corn and soybeans are offering a boost to the wheat market. At midday, all three US wheat futures classes have double digit gains.

  • The Russian government reportedly set an export floor price for wheat at $240 per ton, for July – August.

  • Taiwan flour millers are reported to have purchased 56,000 mt of US milling wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: June 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 615 7.25
DEC ’23 559.75 10.5
DEC ’24 524.75 7.5

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1404.25 16
NOV ’23 1259.5 19.5
NOV ’24 1206.75 15.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 640 9.75
SEP ’23 651 9.75
JUL ’24 694.25 10

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 791.25 5.5
SEP ’23 787.5 5.25
JUL ’24 758.25 2.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 813.25 4
SEP ’23 813 5.25
SEP ’24 781.75 -3.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4400 -18.5

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 69.17 0.71

Gold

AUG ’23 1943.8 -25.1

  • Corn moved higher overnight after forecasts shifted rain to the southwest which is causing more heat and dryness in the Midwest.

  • There are flood watches in Wyoming and southern Gulf states, but the central Corn Belt is expected to be bone dry today, while the southwestern Corn Belt is expected to get rain.

  • December corn is trading above the 100-day moving average, and a close above that level would be the first one since November of last year.

  • Estimates for corn in today’s weekly sales report show an average of 275k tons, but demand has been light and those levels could turn out lower.

  • Soybeans and both soy products are trading higher today with soybean oil leading the way, and crude oil is higher as well.

  • Soybeans are dealing with similar weather conditions to the corn crop, and although they have a larger window to wait for rain, the forecast still has traders worried.

  • Argentina’s Rosario grain exchange cut their soybean production estimate again today by 5% to 20.5 mmt. The previous estimate was 21.5 mmt, both way below the USDA’s 25 mmt estimate.

  • India’s May palm oil imports fell to a 27-month low dropping 14% from a month ago after buyers started cancelling expensive cargoes in favor of soy and sunflower oil.

  • All three wheat products are trading higher with Chicago leading the way as US wheat continues to face challenges and is on track for the smallest harvest in 50 years for winter wheat.

  • US ending wheat stocks are estimated to have their lowest ending stocks to use ratio in 10 years, but the market has still been unable to find demand for US wheat.

  • Southern Alberta and the Dakotas are receiving rain today, but better rain chances are expected across the northwestern US Plains in the middle of next week that could last until the end of June.

  • The European grain crops are estimated to be cut by 5.4 mmt due to dryness with wheat and barely mainly in trouble.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Grain Market Insider: June 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices recovered somewhat from their overnight lows that were weighed down due in part to the rain that fell in parts of the northeastern and eastern Corn Belt yesterday.

  • An increase in Brazil’s crop production estimate and weakness in their export basis weighed on July soybeans as they may hinder further US sales, while New Crop contracts held small gains in carryover support from yesterday’s rally.

  • Falling Russian prices and the continuing harvest in Texas added pressure to all three wheat classes and pushed them to close lower.

  • The two day Federal Reserve meeting to determine whether to increase interest rates concluded this afternoon, leaving the current rates unchanged, which was largely anticipated by the market and may have added pressure to the US dollar and its move lower.

  • To see the updated 7-day NOAA Precipitation Outlook and, NOAA 8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  •  No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. July corn has had nearly a 60-cent rally in the last couple of weeks. Expect volatility to remain in the market; a changing weather forecast can push the market significantly in either direction. If you still have Old Crop to sell, consider using this rally to begin pricing some of those bushels. Don’t forget, there is a significant inverse between the July and September futures contracts, which could be lost when bids get rolled from one contract to the next.   

  • No action is recommended at this time for New Crop. With dryness building in the Midwest and an estimated fund short position near 40k contracts, we continue to target the 590 – 630 range in the December futures to suggest adding cash sales. If you don’t happen to have any New Crop sold, you should consider targeting the 550 – 560 area to begin pricing bushels.  

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds.

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  •  

  • Corn futures finished mixed on the session, pressured on the overnight session by rainfall in the northeastern and eastern Corn Belt. Concerns regarding the direction of the Fed regarding interest rates limited both commodity and equity markets overall on the day.

  • The weather forecast overall remains spotty as rainfall coverage is expected to be hit-or-miss for the next seven days. Despite some recent, but limited, rainfall in many areas of the Corn Belt are still in need of additional and timely rainfall.

  • Demand will stay a focus on Thursday with the USDA releasing weekly export sales.  Expectations are for old crop sales to range from –110,000 MT – 550,000 MT and New crop from 0 – 350,000 MT, as U.S. corn export prices struggle against cheaper global competition.

  • Weekly ethanol margins remain rangebound with the weekly Ethanol Production report showing production of 18,000 barrels/day and stocks down 722,000 barrels. Overall corn usage for ethanol is still behind the USDA pace needed to reach targets for the marketing year.

Above: The breakout above the recent congestion area has the market knocking on the door of the next resistance area between the 100-day moving average near 630 and the April high of 647-1/2, and while a test of the April high is within reach, the market is showing some signs of being overbought. Initial support below the market rests between 595 and 575, with additional support near 550. 

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell 2022 Old Crop soybeans and take advantage of the recent rally. July soybeans have rallied nearly 130 cents from the May low and are approaching the psychological resistance level of 1400. Additionally, with a 70+ cent inverse to the August contract, much of that value may be lost as end users roll bids from the July contract. 

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time. A quick planting pace with favorable conditions and South American competition greatly pressured soybeans in April and May. The potential remains for a tighter New Crop balance sheet, as the US Drought Monitor map remains concerning. We would consider recommending the next sales in the 1300 to 1350 area.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with July lower, but November slightly higher.  As for the products, soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil ended higher despite a decline in crude oil.

  • Prospects for rain are improving in the forecast with good, widespread rains expected across the Midwest that should begin to fall Thursday and into the weekend. If significant rains fall over the upcoming three-day weekend, prices might face some selling pressure.

  • Today, the Federal Reserve announced that they would not be raising interest rates this month, but that they would likely implement two more “small hikes” before the year is over. This noticeably weighed on the stock market as the trade was expecting either no more hikes this year or one more, and the comment likely weighed on commodities as well.

  • The EPA was supposed to make their decision about biofuel mandates today, which had given the soy complex support yesterday, but the decision was delayed until June 21. The decision could provide support for soybeans and the expansion of biodiesel.

Above: After a strong close last week, July soybeans will look for follow-through momentum to turn around a down-trend that has been in place since April. The strong close above the 20-day moving average is a great sign of a short-term trend change higher. If prices were to set back, support should be found near 1340 with nearby resistance near the 1420 area. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Rain in the Plains states may slow harvest short term. In any case, this year’s winter wheat harvest could be close to the smallest in 50 years because of the drought experienced in the southwestern Plains this growing season.

  • Western Canada has been too dry in spring wheat areas, but there are chances for rain over the coming week in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the front could potentially make it into Manitoba as well. This moisture would be welcomed for the spring wheat crop.

  • Both Brazil and Argentina are experiencing potential frost and freezing conditions. While there is not much concern about Brazil’s safrinha corn at this time, the low temperatures over the next few days could slow germination and growth of Argentina’s winter wheat crop.

  • This afternoon, the Fed announced a pause in interest rate increases. However, they said there might be a couple more hikes later this year. Financial markets did not like this result, and some of that negativity may have spilled over into the commodity complex.

  • In general, the grain trade is in a weather market, and the European weather model shows a bit more moisture than it did previously. This offered some weakness to corn and soybeans, which likely weighed on wheat as well.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. The market is down more than 300 cents from its October high and has become extremely oversold. With good price action to start June, the market may be positioned for a short covering rally as new crop harvest quickly approaches. We continue to eye the 640 – 670 range to clean up and market any remaining Old Crop inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop at this time. Prices have rallied nicely off of lows to start the month of June. With continued Black Sea tensions July of 2024 futures prices should be able to build off of the recent lows. We are currently targeting the 750-775 area to advance further on sales.

Above: The bullish reversal from May 31 indicates that there is support near 760. US harvest selling pressure should keep upside limited to any near-term rallies. Resistance may be found above the market between 833 and 850, with further support resting below the market near 736-1/4.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. While Crop ratings have improved and the Black Sea export corridor remains open, questions remain about the size of the HRW crop, whether Russia will continue to agree to keep the Black Sea corridor open, and what production looks like in Europe and Australia. We continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

Above: The bullish reversal from May 31 indicates that there is support near 760. US harvest selling pressure should keep upside limited to any near-term rallies. Resistance may be found above the market between 833 and 850, with further support resting below the market near 736-1/4. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling 2022 Old Crop MINNEAPOLIS Wheat.  Prices haven’t moved much over the last couple of weeks and it’s disappointing to see the lack of upside opportunities that the market has offered following the large snowfall and the late start to planting this spring. Yet, the marketing year for Old Crop is quickly winding down and any additional upside opportunities may be more difficult to come by before New Crop harvest, especially given record European wheat shipments and falling Russian prices. Also, we typically recommend finishing up sales on any remaining Old Crop bushels by mid-June, as bids will soon shift from the July to September contract and there is currently no carry offered.

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The September ’23 contract had a 120-cent range in the month of May where it found support just above 770. While the planting has largely been completed, dryness in some areas is increasing. With the market still largely oversold on the weekly charts and a full growing season ahead of us, we are not looking to make any sales right now.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract continues to be weak and consolidate. With winter wheat harvest on the horizon, spillover selling pressure could plague the spring wheat market in the weeks to come. Resistance currently sits between 820 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2. Support below the market may be found between 770 and 760. 

Other Charts / Weather

|

Midday Update June 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 616 3.5
DEC ’23 550.75 -0.5
DEC ’24 518.75 2.75
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1392.75 -6.5
NOV ’23 1237.75 -1.75
NOV ’24 1192.5 1.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 630 -6.25
SEP ’23 641.25 -6.75
JUL ’24 686 -6
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 787.25 -4.5
SEP ’23 785 -5.25
JUL ’24 762 -5
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 813.75 4
SEP ’23 812.5 3
SEP ’24 785.25 -3.25
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4436.75 20
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 69.45 -0.13
Gold
AUG ’23 1970.5 11.9

  • The EU weather model has turned a little bit more wet, offering some resistance to the grain complex. However, parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana still look mostly dry on that model.

  • At today’s FOMC meeting the Fed may raise interest rates by 25 basis points. There is some speculation that they will pause the rate increase, however, especially after CPI data showed some easing of inflation.

  • Yesterday, December corn rallied but found resistance at the 100-day moving average. Currently at midday it is trading below that average, which is around 5.56.

  • There is reportedly another frost risk for Brazil, but so far there is no indication of harm to their corn crop. They are still looking for record corn production at this time.

  • Soybean export premiums in Brazil continue to be on the decline. As long as they have enough supply, this may reduce the amount of US soybeans sold.

  • China may issue a stimulus package to help their economy. This offers some hope that their economy will improve and help commodity prices. It remains to be seen if this is just a “band-aid” to cover bigger issues, though.

  • July soybean oil gained 1.45 cents yesterday, with support from higher crude oil, as well as world vegetable oils.

  • July soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $15.45 per bushel (and near a 1-month high).

  • This year’s US winter wheat harvest may be one of the smallest in 50 years due to poor growing conditions in the southern Plains.

  • Dry conditions in western Canada’s wheat growing regions may get some relief with chances of rain for Alberta and Saskatchewan in the coming days.

  • Low Russian export prices are pressuring the wheat complex, and the EU is also exporting record amounts of wheat, offering resistance as well.

  • Soil moisture in Argentina is not optimal, and frost / freezing conditions over the next few days could slow germination for their winter wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

Opening Update: June 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 606 -6.5
DEC ’23 546.75 -4.5
DEC ’24 515.5 -0.5

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1394 -5.25
NOV ’23 1234.5 -5
NOV ’24 1186 -4.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 630.25 -6
SEP ’23 642 -6
JUL ’24 686 -6

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 781.5 -10.25
SEP ’23 780.5 -9.75
JUL ’24 767 0.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 805.25 -4.5
SEP ’23 804.75 -4.75
SEP ’24 785.25 -3.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4424 7.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 70.4 0.82

Gold

AUG ’23 1960.2 1.6

  • Corn is trading lower this morning with July leading the way down as first notice day approaches and funds begin to roll into deferred months.

  • The forecast for the northwestern Plains and southeastern Corn Belt have turned wetter over the next five days, while states near the great lakes are only expecting moderate amounts.

  • Potential frosts for Brazil’s second crop corn have not caused prices to move higher and are still sitting at the equivalent of $4.62 a bushel.

  • Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is now being estimated at a record 96.3 mmt, 12% above last season’s production.

  • All three soy products rallied impressively yesterday, in part due to the dry weather, but also due to the pending EPA announcement which has been delayed.

  • The EPA was scheduled to give their announcement on biodiesel requirements today which could be very supportive for the soy complex, but the decision is now postponed to June 21.

  • NOPA May US soybean crush is seen at 175.880 million bushels as processing pace likely continues to slow. Some producers have said that they have idled plants for maintenance.

  • Soybeans met some technical resistance yesterday against the 50-day moving average and one month high, but are far below the 100-day average. 

  • Wheat is trading lower along with corn and soybeans this morning as the US struggles to compete with Russian and Ukrainian export offers.

  • Russia is reportedly considering leaving the Ukrainian grain deal after Putin expressed frustration about the destinations of the Ukrainian wheat on TV yesterday.

  • French wheat stocks estimates increased as their season comes to a close with their stockpile seen at 2.89m tons, 3.8% above last season.

  • Outside of poor weather in the US, northern Europe and Russia’s spring wheat areas are dry, and China’s Henan province is receiving excessive rain that is damaging the crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.