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Opening Update: June 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 616.25 12
DEC ’23 543.75 13.25
DEC ’24 514 9.5

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1390.25 3.75
NOV ’23 1213.5 9.25
NOV ’24 1173.75 10.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 633.5 3.25
SEP ’23 645.25 3.5
JUL ’24 690.5 4.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 798.25 0.5
SEP ’23 795.5 1.75
JUL ’24 764 1

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 815.25 3.5
SEP ’23 815.5 3
SEP ’24 786.5 -3.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4358.5 9.75

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 68.84 -1.49

Gold

AUG ’23 1977.8 0.6

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after weekend rains left much to be desired. Rain only fell in select areas of the Belt but areas that did receive rain got a healthy amount.

  • There is only light rain forecast near Colorado and east of Michigan today, and areas that did not receive rain over the weekend are struggling.

  • Dr. Cordonnier lowered his US corn yield to 179 bps which would bring production down to 14.94 billion bushels. Acreage was left alone at 91.5 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as of June 6 buying back 6,573 contracts of corn, decreasing their net short position to 44,492 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have not kept up with the gains in corn. Dryness over the weekend has been a bullish factor, but soybeans can wait a bit longer for rain before it becomes an issue.

  • Light to moderate rains are forecast across the Midwest this week, but models are mostly dry west of Indiana and north of Missouri.

  • Malaysian May palm oil stocks rose to 1.69m tons from 1.5m tons in April which has been a main pressure for lower soybean oil lately.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net long position buying 13,452 contracts, increasing their net long position to 13,981 contracts.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minn higher but KC lagging behind as weather, Russia, and small changes in the WASDE affect prices.

  • Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have all received beneficial rains recently improving the HRW wheat crop, but further north, the majority of the western Canadian Prairies were mostly dry, although rains are forecast later this week.

  • USDA’s NASS made a small increase to its winter wheat production estimate going from 1.130 bb to 1.136 bb, largely based on an 11 mb increase in the HRW wheat estimate.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back some of their short position by 7,524 contracts, decreasing their net short position to 119,474 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: June 9, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn was lower to end the week after the USDA lowered 22/23 corn exports by 50 million bushels bringing ending stocks in line with pre-report estimates, but still higher than the May estimate.

  • Soybeans closed sharply higher with help once again from higher soybean oil prices. July Soybean Oil futures have closed higher in five of the first seven trading days to start the month of June.

  • Wheat was mixed with Chicago contacts moving higher while K.C. and Minneapolis contracts slid lower. Overall, the WASDE report was viewed as neutral to the wheat market with only minor changes from last month’s numbers.

  • With the June WASDE report in the rearview mirror, the trade will turn its attention back to weather as we enter critical weeks of crop development for corn and soybeans.

  • To see the updated NOAA 8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and 7-day NOAA Precipitation Outlook scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  •  No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. July corn has had nearly a 60-cent rally in the last couple of weeks. Expect volatility to remain in the market, a changing weather forecast can push the market significantly in either direction. If you still have Old Crop to sell, consider using this rally to begin pricing some of those bushels. Don’t forget, there is about an 80-cent inverse between the July and September futures contracts, which could be lost when bids get rolled from one contract to the next in the next few weeks.

  • No action is recommended at this time for New Crop. With dryness building in the Midwest and an estimated fund short position in excess of 40k contracts, we continue to target the 590 – 630 range in the December futures to suggest adding cash sales. If you don’t happen to have any New Crop sold, you should consider targeting the 550 – 560 area to begin pricing bushels.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds.

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Corn futures finished lower on Friday as a confirmed growing supply picture and potential weather pattern shifts limited buying support. July corn futures closed the week 4-3/4 cents lower and December lost 10-3/4 cents.

  • The USDA June WASDE report lowered old crop corn export demand by 50 MB but decreased corn imports by 15 MB to add a difference of 35 MB to projected carryout. Old crop carryout is now at 1.452 BB and New crop was raised to 2.257 BB. The report was close to analysts’ expectations, but still confirmed a weaker demand tone and larger supply picture.

  • The USDA raised their projection for Brazilian corn production to 132 MMT (approx. 5.118 BB) by adding 2 MMT (79MB) over last month’s projections, this was larger than analyst expectations.

  • Now with the report behind the market, traders will shift focus back to the weather. Models are showing a potential change overall to a cooler and wetter pattern, but the market will be watching precipitation totals and locations over the weekend.

  • Corn future weakness may have been limited late today by buying strength in the soybean markets, and the Chicago wheat market trading off the lows of the session.

Above: Prices have continued to run into resistance at the 610 area. If current prices can hold and close above the 50-day moving average near 604, the market would be poised to test April’s high of 647-1/2. Support below the market rests between 550 and 530, and again near the 2021 September low of 497-1/2. 

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • May was a rough month for soybeans with a 175-cent range, but the market is consolidating, and found support just above 1270. July soybeans continue to be oversold with a tight Old Crop balance sheet, and with dryness concerns building and a seasonal window that is conducive for upside volatility and opportunity, continue to hold on progressing any Old Crop sales for now.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time. A quick planting pace with favorable conditions and South American competition greatly pressured soybeans in April and May. The potential remains for a tighter New Crop balance sheet, as the US Drought Monitor map remains concerning. We would consider recommending the next sales in the 1300 to 1350 area.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans ended significantly higher on the day despite a neutral WASDE report. Soybean meal closed lower in the front months, while soybean oil closed higher as palm oil begins to recover.

  • Today’s WASDE report held essentially no surprises. The USDA lowered Argentinian production to 25 mmt from their previous estimate of 27 mmt, but that is likely still too high. Brazilian production was increased by 1 mmt to 156 mmt. In the US, soybean ending stocks were increased to 350 mb which was higher than the average trade guess.

  • Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 197,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 22/23 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began on September 1.

  • Now that the WASDE is out of the way with very little reaction, traders will turn their focus back to weather. Forecasts for the Corn Belt this weekend and into the next week call for rain, but it may only be around 1 inch. If rains don’t fall this weekend, prices could easily move higher.

Above: After a strong close last week, July soybeans will look for follow-through momentum to turn around a down-trend that has been in place since April. This week’s strong close above the 20-day moving average is a great sign of a short-term trend change higher. If prices were to set back, support should be found near 1340 with nearby resistance near the 1420 area. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All eyes were on today’s USDA report which was overall neutral. Despite this, Chicago wheat posted small gains at the close alongside Paris milling wheat futures. Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts were lower, however.

  • The US 23/24 all wheat production was raised slightly from 1.659 bb in May, to 1.665 bb on today’s report.

  • The US 22/23 wheat carryout was unchanged at 598 mb. However, it was raised slightly for 23/24, from 556 mb in May to 562 mb in June, due to a slight increase in overall production.

  • The USDA estimated the average US wheat yield at 44.9 bpa, up from 44.7 last month. However, this is lower than the average yield last year of 47.0 bpa.

  • Russian wheat production was raised by 3.5 mmt to 85.0 mmt, and Ukraine was raised 1.0 mmt to 17.5 mmt. India and the European Union also saw increases to their overall wheat harvest estimates.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop.  The market is down more than 300 cents from its October high and has become extremely oversold. With good price action to start June, the market may be positioned for a short covering rally as new crop harvest quickly approaches. We continue to eye the 640 – 670 range to clean up and market any remaining Old Crop inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop at this time. Prices have rallied nicely off of lows to start the month of June. With continued Black Sea tensions July of 2024 futures prices should be able to build off of the recent lows. We are currently targeting the 750-775 area to advance further on sales.

Above: The market appears to have put in short-term lows to end the month of May near the 575 level. A close above the 660 area would be a supportive sign of a trend change to higher. The next area of possible support, if the late May lows do not hold, would be below the market near the September ’20 low of 533-1/4.  Resistance above the market could be found between 670 and 724.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

Above: Last week Wednesday’s bullish reversal indicates that there is support near 760. US harvest selling pressure should keep upside limited to any near-term rallies. Resistance may be found above the market between 833 and 850, with further support resting below the market near 736-1/4. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The September ’23 contract had a 120-cent range in the month of May where it found support just above 770. While the planting pace has largely caught up to the 5-year average, dryness in some areas is increasing. With the market still largely oversold and a full growing season ahead of us, we are not looking to make any sales right now.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract continues to be weak and showing signs of being oversold after breaking back below the 800 level this week.  With winter wheat harvest on the horizon, spill over selling pressure could plague the spring wheat market in the weeks to come. Resistance currently sits between 820 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2.  Support below the market may be found between 770 and 760. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update June 9, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 602 -8.25
DEC ’23 526 -7
DEC ’24 504.75 -4.5
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1383.75 20.5
NOV ’23 1199.75 10.75
NOV ’24 1152.5 5.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 625 -1.25
SEP ’23 637 -2
JUL ’24 681.25 -3.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 798.25 -6.5
SEP ’23 796 -7.75
JUL ’24 767 -0.5
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 810.25 -5.5
SEP ’23 811.25 -6.75
SEP ’24 790 20
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4360.75 19
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 71.46 0.02
Gold
AUG ’23 1978.8 0.2

  • Corn is trading lower ahead of today’s WASDE report and is also being pressured by rain in the forecast this weekend for the Midwest.

  • Rain is expected this weekend and early next week for the Corn Belt, but Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio rain totals are only projected to reach an inch or slightly more.

  • The focus of today’s WASDE report will likely be on corn ending stocks which are expected to increase, and Argentina’s production which the USDA will likely decrease.

  • Monday’s crop progress will probably show a decline in good to excellent ratings following the dry weather, but ratings could easily jump higher after a week of decent rains.

  • Soybeans are trading higher after getting a boost from a reported flash sale. Soybean oil is higher and is being supportive while soybean meal is lower.

  • Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 197,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 22/23 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began on September 1.

  • In today’s WASDE report, traders will focus on production cuts for Argentina with estimates of a 3 mmt decline to 24 mmt. Argentina’s real production will likely be closer to 20 mmt.

  • Palm oil futures have been a large bearish factor for the soybean oil market and palm oil fell 1.72% today as supplies continue to rise in both Malaysia and Indonesia.

  • Wheat was mixed this morning, but Chicago has turned lower bringing all three products down for the day. Funds remain short as Russia continues to offer wheat for significantly cheaper cash prices.

  • The WASDE report estimates from the Dow Jones survey have US wheat ending stocks moving higher by just 8 mb to 606 mb, but adjustments down the line are possible thanks to recent rains.

  • Russia continues to keep their grip on the export market making sales to Egypt, and there have been reports of Russian offers for August as low as $226/mt FOB Black Sea for 12.5 protein wheat.

  • French wheat conditions have fallen for two straight weeks and went from 93% good to excellent to 88% due to heat and dryness, and China, Australia, and Argentina are having issues with their wheat crops as well.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 9, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 606.5 -3.75
DEC ’23 529.25 -3.75
DEC ’24 507 -2.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1369 5.75
NOV ’23 1191.5 2.5
NOV ’24 1147 0.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 625.5 -0.75
SEP ’23 638.75 -0.25
JUL ’24 683.25 -1.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 795.75 -9
SEP ’23 794 -9.75
JUL ’24 760.75 -6.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 807.5 -8.25
SEP ’23 809.5 -8.5
SEP ’24 790 20

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4339.75 -2

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 71.63 0.19

Gold

AUG ’23 1979.8 1.2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as forecasts predict that a front will move through the Midwest bringing showers to most areas.

  • Today’s WASDE report will be released at 11 central and traders are expecting old crop ending stocks to rise slightly and for exports to drop.

  • US corn crops in drought areas jumped to 45% with corn crops experiencing moderate drought rose by 11% from the previous week.

  • Brazilian corn production has been estimated higher by Bloomberg around 130.3 mmt, 4.7 mmt higher than the previous estimate.

  • Soybeans are trading higher across the board with gains in soybean oil and meal as well. Crude oil is also trading higher.

  • Helping soybeans and soybean oil is India cutting their palm oil imports in favor of soybean oil and sunflower oil, with imports of soybean oil jumping to 301,000 tons vs 262,000 tons last month.

  • Barge shipments on the Mississippi River fell for the week ending June 3 with soybean shipments down 26% from the previous week.

  •  Today’s WASDE report will likely show a decrease in Argentinian production and US ending stocks may also be increased.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago trading slightly higher but KC and Minneapolis down ahead of the WASDE.

  • HRW wheat conditions have improved significantly thanks to recent rains, but the good to excellent ratings are still at only 36%.

  • China will reportedly feed more wheat to animals after heavy rains damaged high quality wheat which could see their import demand for wheat rise.

  • Traders are expecting that Friday’s WASDE will show a jump in US winter wheat yields over last month’s USDA estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: June 8, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn closed higher as forecasted weekend rainfall totals continue to fluctuate for areas of desperate need in the eastern Corn Belt. Spillover strength from the wheat market also helped add to higher momentum.

  • Soybeans ended higher, driven mostly by another daily surge in soybean oil futures. Soybean meal futures were fractionally lower on continued demand concerns.

  • Wheat ended higher despite weak export sales and a continued drop in Russian wheat export values.

  • The US Dollar Index moved sharply lower, closing below the 20-day moving average for the first time since early May, this helped support commodities throughout the session.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor Map and 7-day NOAA Precipitation Outlook scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  •  

  • Corn prices finished higher on the session, fighting off overnight lows in some position squaring before Friday’s USDA report. The corn market was also supported by fluctuating weather models for weekend rains, and strength in the wheat market on increasing Ukrainian-Russian war tensions.

  • The USDA released weekly exports sales this morning for corn, and old crop sales were 173,000 MT and new crop sales saw cancelations of 107,000 MT. Overall sales were at the low end of expectations as export demand remains weak.

  • The wheat market was supported by the talk of a Ukrainian counter offensive, escalating activity in the Russia-Ukraine war. The strong wheat market spilled over to support corn prices at the end of the session.

  • Tomorrow morning at 11:00 CST, the USDA will release the June WASDE report. The June WASDE is expected to show a weaker demand tone and overall increasing corn supplies. The trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 1.449 billion bushels (bb), up slightly from last month; new crop at 2.254 bb, also up slightly.

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Corn prices finished higher on the session, fighting off overnight lows in some position squaring before Friday’s USDA report. The corn market was also supported by fluctuating weather models for weekend rains, and strength in the wheat market on increasing Ukrainian-Russian war tensions.

  • The USDA released weekly exports sales this morning for corn, and old crop sales were 173,000 MT and new crop sales saw cancelations of 107,000 MT. Overall sales were at the low end of expectations as export demand remains weak.

  • The wheat market was supported by the talk of a Ukrainian counter offensive, escalating activity in the Russia-Ukraine war. The strong wheat market spilled over to support corn prices at the end of the session.

  • Tomorrow morning at 11:00 CST, the USDA will release the June WASDE report. The June WASDE is expected to show a weaker demand tone and overall increasing corn supplies. The trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 1.449 billion bushels (bb), up slightly from last month; new crop at 2.254 bb, also up slightly.

Above: Prices have continued to run into resistance at the 610 area. If current prices can hold and close above the 50-day moving average near 604, the market would be poised to test April’s high of 647-1/2. Support below the market rests between 550 and 530, and again near the 2021 September low of 497-1/2. 

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • May was a rough month for soybeans with a 175-cent range, but the market is consolidating, and found support just above 1270. July soybeans continue to be oversold with a tight Old Crop balance sheet, and with dryness concerns building and a seasonal window that is conducive for upside volatility and opportunity, continue to hold on progressing any Old Crop sales for now.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time. A quick planting pace with favorable conditions and South American competition have pressed US prices down nearly 17% from the beginning of the year. The potential remains for a tighter New Crop balance sheet, as the US Drought Monitor map remains concerning. We would consider recommending the next sales in the 1300 to 1350 area.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, driven by large gains in soybean oil, which saw the July contract 4% higher, while soybean meal moved lower.

  • Export sales were decent, all things considered, the USDA reported an increase of 7.6 mb for the 22/23 year, which was up 68% from the previous week, 9.7 mb were reported for 23/24. Export shipments of 9.1 mb were below the 12.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • US biodiesel exports for April were up 110% from last year at over 147,000 mt, which is the highest on record. The first four months of the year were 52% higher than that of a year ago.

  • Tomorrow’s WASDE report will be released at 11:00 CST, and traders will be watching for a change in the carryout number. Trade expectations are for 223 mb of old crop beans and 345 mb of new crop, which would be slightly up from last month. Argentinian production will most likely be revised lower.

Above: After a strong close last week, July soybeans will look for follow-through momentum to turn around a down-trend that has been in place since April. Support should be found near the recent lows of 1300 with nearby resistance near the 1420 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Weekly export sales for wheat were reported at 8.6 mb. Shipments last week of just 7.0 mb are well below the needed 34.5 mb per week to reach the 775 mb export estimate.

  • Russian wheat export values continue to fall, with reports of August offers as low as $226 per metric ton. With Russia cutting into US exports, it is possible that in tomorrow’s USDA report there may be an increase to US carryout.

  • Most Ukrainian wheat areas and spring wheat areas of Russia remain dry. Australia is wet, however. This is contrary to the typical El Nino pattern, which should bring dryness to Australia’s wheat growing areas.

  • The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 all wheat production is 1.666 bb (vs 1.659 in May, and 1.650 for 22/23)

  • The average pre-report estimate for US 22/23 wheat carryout is 606 mb (vs 598 in May), estimates for 23/24 carryout come in at 568 mb (vs 556 in May).

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. The market is down more than 300 cents from its October high and has become extremely oversold. The July contract may also post its 8th consecutive down month in a row at prices not seen since early 2021, even though wheat inventories of major exporting countries are anticipated to fall to 16-year lows. With the market being this oversold and a fund net position short nearly 113k contracts, we continue to eye the 640 – 670 range to clean up and market any remaining Old Crop inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop at this time. Prices have rallied nicely off of lows to start the month of June. With continued Black Sea tensions July of 2024 futures prices should be able to build off of the recent lows. We are currently targeting the 750-775 area to advance further on sales.

Above: The market appears to have put in short-term lows to end the month of May near the 575 level. A close above the 660 area would be a supportive sign of a trend change to higher. The next area of possible support, if the late May lows do not hold, would be below the market near the September ’20 low of 533-1/4.  Resistance above the market could be found between 670 and 724.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

Above: Last week Wednesday’s bullish reversal indicates that there is support near 760. US harvest selling pressure should keep upside limited to any near-term rallies. Resistance may be found above the market between 833 and 850, with further support resting below the market near 736-1/4. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The September ’23 contract had a 120-cent range in the month of May where it found support just above 770. While the planting pace has largely caught up to the 5-year average, dryness in some areas is increasing. With the market still largely oversold and a full growing season ahead of us, we are not looking to make any sales right now.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract continues to be weak and showing signs of being oversold after breaking back below the 800 level this week.  With winter wheat harvest on the horizon, spill over selling pressure could plague the spring wheat market in the weeks to come. Resistance currently sits between 820 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2.  Support below the market may be found between 770 and 760. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update June 8, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 608.75 4.5
DEC ’23 528.25 -2.5
DEC ’24 506.75 2.75
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1369 8.25
NOV ’23 1177 -1.5
NOV ’24 1139 4.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 624.5 7.75
SEP ’23 636 8.25
JUL ’24 680.75 6.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 801.25 13.25
SEP ’23 799 13
JUL ’24 763.5 11.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 812 18
SEP ’23 813.75 17.25
SEP ’24 770 -15
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4330.25 13
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 72.05 -0.59
Gold
AUG ’23 1982.4 24

  • Corn is mixed at midday with July higher and deferred contracts lower as the bull spreading continues and forecasts turn wetter.

  • The GFS weather model has shown more rain than the European, but the European has slowly been shifting to be more in line with the GFS and added rainfall over the next 10 days in the Midwest.

  • Net sales of corn for 22/23 were 172,700 mt and were down 8% from the previous week but up from the prior 4-week average. There were net sales reductions for the 23/24 marketing year of 106,800 mt.

  • Corn exports of 1,244,700 mt were down 13% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average as Brazil continues to sell corn for significantly cheaper.

  • The soy complex is mixed alongside corn with front months higher but November slightly lower. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is getting support from higher crude oil.

  • Palm oil futures have been a large bearish factor for the soybean oil market and palm oil fell 1.72% today as supplies continue to rise in both Malaysia and Indonesia.

  • China is ramping up their soy purchases chiefly from Brazil and taken in 12.2 mmt in April, which was an increase of 24% from a year ago. Estimates for their imports in May and June are between 12 and 14 mmt.

  • Net soybean sales for 22/23 were 207,200 mt, up 68% from the previous week, and up from the prior 4-week average. Sales for 23/24 were 264,600 mt, and exports of 247,600 mt were up 7% from the previous week.

  • Wheat is trading higher today with Minneapolis leading the way and KC following behind. It is possible that ramifications from the Ukrainian dam explosion are supporting the market today.

  • Russia continues to keep their grip on the export market making sales to Egypt, and there have been reports of Russian offers for August as low as $226/mt FOB Black Sea for 12.5 protein wheat.

  • In tomorrow’s WASDE report traders are expecting a slight increase to US ending stocks for wheat as a result of very sluggish export sales.

  • Net sales of wheat for 23/24, which began on June 1, were 234,800 mt, and a total of 877,400 mt in sales were carried over from the 22/23 marketing year. Exports for the period ending May 31 were 87,300 mt, which brought total exports to 17,758,500 mt and down 5% from the previous year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 8, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 601 -3.25
DEC ’23 525.25 -5.5
DEC ’24 503.25 -0.75

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1361.25 0.5
NOV ’23 1174 -4.5
NOV ’24 1135 0.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 620.75 4
SEP ’23 631.75 4
JUL ’24 678.75 4.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 793.75 5.75
SEP ’23 792 6
JUL ’24 752.75 0.5

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 799.5 5.5
SEP ’23 803.75 7.25
SEP ’24 770 -15

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4317 -0.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 73.14 0.5

Gold

AUG ’23 1960.4 2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning following another change in the forecast yesterday evening that calls for wetter weather.

  • The GFS model has been calling for more rain than the European but yesterday the European started following the GFS more closely.

  • Today’s export sales will be likely show fair to poor numbers as South American offers remain significantly cheaper.

  • Brazilian corn production has been estimated higher by Bloomberg around 130.3 mmt, 4.7 mmt higher than the previous estimate.

  • Soybeans and soybean meal are mixed with front months higher but deferred months lower, but soybean oil slightly higher along with crude oil

  • Bloomberg has estimated the Brazilian soy crop higher by 0.7 mmt for a total of 155.6 mmt.

  • In May, Brazil’s shipments to China rose 60% compared to the same period last year, and shipments to Argentina were 979,000, a record high for that destination.

  • China’s soy imports have hit a record after previously delayed for inspection vessels were able to unload at once. The imports are 66% higher than the previous month.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher after yesterday’s sharp selloff. The wheat fundamentals are strong but the market is largely controlled by funds who have an advantage in this thinly traded market.

  • Traders are waiting to hear the extent of the impact of Ukraine’s destroyed dam which has displaced thousands of residents and ruined the irrigation system.

  • India received 57% below average rains in the first week of June despite a large monsoon waiting off the southern coast.

  • Traders are expecting that Friday’s WASDE will show a jump in US winter wheat yields over last month’s USDA estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: June 7, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn closed sharply lower as weather forecasts continue to point towards cooler and wetter conditions for much of the Corn Belt late next week.

  • Soybeans ended mixed with Old Crop contracts higher on still tight domestic supplies, while New Crop contracts fell lower on a more favorable US weather outlook into the back half of June.

  • Soybean meal traded in line with soybeans as nearby contracts were higher, while deferred contracts slumped lower and soybean oil futures were lower across the board.

  • Wheat finished sharply lower with double-digit losses across all three wheats despite this week’s news of the Ukrainian dam collapse.  

  • To see updated US 6-10 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  •  No action is recommended at this time for Old Crop. July corn has had nearly a 60-cent rally in the last couple of weeks. Expect volatility to remain in the market, a changing weather forecast can push the market significantly in either direction. If you still have Old Crop to sell, consider using this rally to begin pricing some of those bushels. Don’t forget, there is about a 70-cent inverse between the July and September futures contracts, which could be lost when bids get rolled from one contract to the next in the next few weeks.

  • No action is recommended at this time for New Crop. With dryness building in the Midwest and an estimated fund short position in excess of 40k contracts, we continue to target the 590 – 630 range in the December futures to suggest adding cash sales. If you don’t happen to have any New Crop sold, you should consider targeting the 550 – 560 area to begin pricing bushels.

  • Continue to hold current sales levels for the 2024 crop year. We will look for opportunities to make further sales as we move through the 2023 growing season as weather volatility builds. 

Grain Market Insider Corn open positions listed above.

  • Corn prices traded lower on the session as strong selling pressure in the wheat market, and the weather forecast staying on the wetter side for the Corn Belt going into next week limited buying interest.

  • On Friday, the USDA will release the June WASDE report, and after the recent rally prices may have been squaring up and profit taking going into that report at the end of the week. The June WASDE is expected to show a weaker demand tone and overall increasing corn supplies.

  • The USDA will release the weekly Exports Sale report on Thursday morning. U.S. corn export sales are expected to remain weak as US exporters struggle for business against cheaper global competition. 

  • Overnight and afternoon weather models are still looking for a change in the current weather patterns, moving to a cooler and wetter overall pattern next week. If realized, the weather premium in the market will likely be pulled out on the fear of improved production with the beneficial rain.

Above: The July contract is beginning to show signs of exhaustion, but Friday’s bullish surge higher is a positive sign that there is support near 575. If current prices can hold and close above the 50-day moving average near 610, the market would be poised to test April’s high of 647-1/2. Support below the market rests between 550 and 530, and again near the 2021 September low of 497-1/2.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • May was a rough month for soybeans with a 175-cent range, but the market is consolidating, and found support just above 1270. July soybeans continue to be oversold with a tight Old Crop balance sheet, and with dryness concerns building and a seasonal window that is conducive for upside volatility and opportunity, continue to hold on progressing any Old Crop sales for now.

  • We recommend not adding to current sales levels for the new 2023 crop at this time. A quick planting pace with favorable conditions and South American competition have pressed US prices down nearly 17% from the beginning of the year. The potential remains for a tighter New Crop balance sheet, as the US Drought Monitor map remains concerning. We would consider recommending the next sales in the 1300 to 1350 area.

  • Continue to hold off on pricing the 2024 crop. We look to make sales further into the 2023 growing season when selling opportunities tend to improve seasonally. 

  • Soybeans were mixed today with front month July ending higher, but the deferred contracts closing lower as forecasts turn wetter. Soybean meal was bull spread and soybean oil closed lower despite higher crude oil.

  • Traders have been fixated on weather and lately, it has turned to a more favorable cooler and wetter forecast over the next 7 days. Old crop supplies remain tight supporting the July contract.

  • Friday’s WASDE report will likely show a revision to Argentinian production to be lower as the USDA has lagged behind other analysts to reflect the damage the drought has done to the soy crop. Trade will also look for an old crop carryout of 223 mb and 345 mb of new crop.

  • US soy exports have been slow due to Brazil’s significantly cheaper offerings, and analysts are now expecting June exports to be 13.1 mmt vs 9.9 mmt a year ago with China as the major buyer.

Above: After a strong close last week, July soybeans will look for follow-through momentum to turn around a down-trend that has been in place since April. Support should be found near the recent lows of 1300 with nearby resistance near the 1420 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Russia’s FOB offers are now said to be as low as $229 per metric ton. This is pressuring the US export market, as well as futures prices. Additionally, Egypt purchased 55,000 mt of wheat from Russia at some of these low levels.

  • Despite the recent news that a Ukrainian dam was destroyed by Russia, wheat traded sharply lower today. The damage is said to have caused flooding in agricultural areas, but the trade does not appear concerned.

  • Russian spring wheat areas could be facing drought with temperatures as high as 90-100 degrees. And due to the El Nino weather pattern, Australian wheat production could also be reduced below what the USDA is estimating to just 26.2 mmt.

  • Scattered showers across the Corn Belt today likely took away some weather premium in corn and soybeans with some of this weakness spilling over into the wheat market as winter wheat harvest looms on the horizon.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. The market is down more than 300 cents from its October high and has become extremely oversold. The July contract may also post its 8th consecutive down month in a row at prices not seen since early 2021, even though wheat inventories of major exporting countries are anticipated to fall to 16-year lows. With the market being this oversold and a fund net position short nearly 113k contracts, we continue to eye the 640 – 670 range to clean up and market any remaining Old Crop inventory.

  • We recommend not taking any action on the 2023 crop at this time. While the window of opportunity is quickly closing for Old Crop, it is still wide open for better opportunities ahead for New Crop.  We are currently targeting a more aggressive window of 720 – 800 to suggest advancing sales and move more New Crop inventory.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop at this time. Prices have rallied nicely off of lows to start the month of June. With continued Black Sea tensions July of 2024 futures prices should be able to build off of the recent lows. We are currently targeting the 750-775 area to advance further on sales.

Above: The market appears to have put in short-term lows to end the month of May near the 575 level. A close above the 660 area would be a supportive sign of a trend change to higher. The next area of possible support, if the late May lows do not hold, would be below the market near the September ’20 low of 533-1/4.  Resistance above the market could be found between 670 and 724.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for the 2022 crop. Though most, if not all, of your Old Crop 2022 wheat may be sold, consider storing any remaining Old Crop, if possible, in anticipation of a short new crop this year, and marketing it along with the new crop.

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. Crop ratings overall are at historically low levels, and production concerns persist.  Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical changes in the Black Sea region could cause the market to bounce and retrace 25% towards the 2022 high. 

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

Above: Last week Wednesday’s bullish reversal indicates that there is support near 760. Prices mostly failed to react to the heightened tensions in the Black Sea region to start this week. US harvest selling pressure should keep an upside to any near-term rallies. Resistance may be found above the market between 833 and 850, with further support resting below the market near 736-1/4. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2022 crop.  With planting concerns and a seasonal tendency for old crop prices to increase over the next 4-5 weeks, we are continuing to wait for better prices to develop. The calendar is becoming a constraint though, and we’ll be looking to part with any remaining old crop bushels by mid-June or so. 

  • No action is recommended on the 2023 crop at this time. The September ’23 contract had a 120-cent range in the month of May where it found support just above 770. While the planting pace has largely caught up to the 5-year average, dryness in some areas is increasing. With the market still largely oversold and a full growing season ahead of us, we are not looking to make any sales right now.

  • We continue to be patient to market any of the 2024 crop. The market for the 2024 crop continues to be illiquid, and it may be early summer before we post any recommendations, continue to be patient.

Above: The July contract continues to be weak and showing signs of being oversold after breaking back below the 800 level this week.  With winter wheat harvest on the horizon, spill over selling pressure could plague the spring wheat market in the weeks to come. Resistance currently sits between 820 and 855 and then the recent high of 888-1/2.  Support below the market may be found between 770 and 760. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update June 7, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 606.25 -1.75
DEC ’23 531.25 -9.75
DEC ’24 505 -6.25
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1361.5 8.25
NOV ’23 1183 -1.75
NOV ’24 1141 -4.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 617.5 -10.25
SEP ’23 629 -11
JUL ’24 676 -12.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 795.75 -24.5
SEP ’23 792.75 -21.75
JUL ’24 758.25 -15.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 799.75 -16.75
SEP ’23 803.25 -16.25
SEP ’24 785 -7.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4327 -6
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 72.82 0.97
Gold
AUG ’23 1972.2 -9.3

  • Corn is trading mixed midday with front month July trading slightly higher, while deferred contracts are lower.

  • Forecasts for the Corn Belt trended a bit wetter and cooler overnight which is pressuring new crop, while on-hand supplies remain tight.

  • Brazil’s FOB corn offers are reportedly at an 85-cent discount to offers from the US at the equivalent of $4.60 per bushel giving Brazil a clear advantage over exports.

  • Corn good to excellent ratings came in at 64% and with recent dryness, ratings could decline further on next week’s report.

  • Soybeans are mixed as well, with July higher by a few cents but deferred contracts lower. Front month soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower despite higher crude.

  • Scattered showers are falling from Minnesota into the eastern Corn Belt. The 15-day weather forecast is mixed with the GFS model showing more widespread rains and the European models showing modest coverage.

  • China’s imports of Brazilian soybeans have increased over the past month due to their significantly cheaper offers.

  • August palm oil fell by 1.9% after reports came out that Malaysia may end up with a surge in output of about 4.7%.

  • Wheat is trading sharply lower at midday after hovering near unchanged this morning. There are many bullish fundamentals that should be supporting prices, but Russia continues to undercut the market with offers as low as $299/mt.

  • The big news yesterday was the explosion of the Ukrainian dam which is causing major flooding in both residential and agricultural land, as well as disruptions to irrigation systems.

  • Argentinian wheat is being planted with poor soil moisture, Australia’s 23/24 wheat production was cut to just 26.2 mmt, and China’s wheat crop has been hit with heavy rainfall severely cutting into production.

  • In the US, crop ratings are not good but did increase slightly following rains in HRW wheat areas. US spring wheat should be watched for heat and dryness, however.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 7, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 610.5 2.5
DEC ’23 541.5 0.5
DEC ’24 511.5 0.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1361.75 8.5
NOV ’23 1187 2.25
NOV ’24 1145.5 0.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 632.5 4.75
SEP ’23 645.25 5.25
JUL ’24 693.5 5.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 821.25 1
SEP ’23 815.25 0.75
JUL ’24 766.5 -7

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 818.25 1.75
SEP ’23 820.25 0.75
SEP ’24 785 -7.75

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4333.75 0.75

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 72.6 0.75

Gold

AUG ’23 1977.7 -3.8

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as the market continues to trade weather which is now calling for a large front that should move from Minnesota and into Iowa and Illinois.

  • Recent dryness has been a bullish factor and caused crop conditions to decline, but as soon as the Corn Belt gets a good rain in the upcoming weeks, crops should perk back up.

  • Friday’s WASDE report will most likely show a decline in Argentinian corn production as the USDA has stayed far above other analysts, but there is a slight chance they lower US yields too.

  • Brazilian corn exports continue to climb and reached 1.66 mmt in June vs 1.503 at this time a year ago.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with front month July higher but Nov lower, and both soybean oil and meal higher. Crude oil is higher as well.

  • Brazilian soy exports reached 13.11 mmt in June compared to 9.946 the previous year. Although Brazil dominates exports, the US had a surprise sale of soybeans to Spain yesterday.

  • Chinese May soybean imports reached a record 12 mmt which was the highest ever in a month, and June imports could reportedly be even higher.

  • Brazilian farmers will be receiving 7.6 billion reais to cover expenses in a new farming credit program for the 23/24 season. 

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago higher but KC and Minn slightly lower. The quiet action is a bit confusing given the escalation in Ukraine yesterday that affects wheat growing areas.

  • The destruction of the dam in Ukraine presumably by Russia threatens agricultural production as the dam was used to help control irrigation.

  • The EU’s soft wheat exports rose 11.4% year over year to 28.9m tons, with leading destinations Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria.

  • Ukrainian grain exports are at 45.6 million tonnes so far for the July-June season and are down from 47.2 mmt the same time a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.