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Opening Update: August 17, 2023

Bygmidev

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 466 -3.5
DEC ’23 478.5 -3
DEC ’24 505.5 -2.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1325.75 2.25
JAN ’24 1336 2.25
NOV ’24 1276 5.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 590.75 -7
DEC ’23 616.5 -6.5
JUL ’24 666.5 -5.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 743 0
DEC ’23 751.5 -1
JUL ’24 741.5 0.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 791.5 0.5
DEC ’23 806.75 0.5
SEP ’24 807.5 7.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4430.25 10.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 79.8 0.78

Gold

OCT ’23 1908.5 -1.3

  • Corn is trading lower this morning along with wheat as prices seem to slide downwards whenever Russia doesn’t launch a new attack on Ukraine’s ports.

  • Export sales will be released today and are expected to be slow, but new crop sales have picked up slightly over the past month as US corn prices fall.

  • US ethanol stocks rose by 2.4% to 23.435 m bbl, but analysts were expecting 22.83. Plant production was 1.069 m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.035.

  • The US is preparing to request a dispute resolution panel with Mexico claiming that their corn policy banning GMO corn violates the trade deal.

  • Soybeans are trading quietly this morning and are essentially unchanged as soybean meal slips lower but soybean oil continues on higher.

  • Soybean oil prices are getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.

  • Brazilian food and fuel processor Caramuru Alimentos has started selling soybean based ethanol at one of its plants in Brazil.

  • In the EU, soybean imports were down slightly from the previous year at 1.33 mmt by August 13 compared to 1.58 mmt a year earlier.

  • All three wheat products are lower after a lack of activity in the Black Sea region last night. The progression of US harvest is also weighing on prices.

  • Brazil’s wheat crop is now seen at 11.19 mmt which is down 2.3% from the previous estimate. Their imports were unchanged at 5.77 mmt.

  • Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.

  • India is considering wheat imports from Russia of 9 mmt to calm local prices which have reached a 7-month high due to their own low wheat stocks.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: August 16, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A forecast for hot and dry conditions through the end of August led traders to add some weather premium back into the corn market and cover some short positions, with concern that the high temperatures may stress the corn crop during grain fill.

  • Soaring temperatures for the next two weeks with little rain, and a strong soybean oil market gave support to soybeans that also spilled over into soybean meal, which also ended higher on the day.

  • Soybean oil found continued support from yesterday’s NOPA crush report that showed a decline in bean oil stocks following a near record number of beans crushed for the period. The report suggests last month’s soybean oil usage was the second highest on record.

  • Despite additional Russian attacks on Odesa grain facilities and Danube River terminals, the wheat complex ended the day mixed with most Chicago contracts settling fractionally lower, and only July ’24 fractionally higher, while both K.C. and Minneapolis contracts settled higher.

  • To see the current U.S. 7 day precipitation forecast and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation outlooks, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for the 2023 corn crop. This year’s growing season has been marked by dry conditions and changing weather forecasts, which have swung prices nearly 150 cents from high to low. Though dry conditions remain, with a great amount of variability in crop conditions from region to region, it may not be until after harvest before we know the full effect this growing season had on yields. Just as Insider recently recommended selling half of the previously recommended DEC 580 puts to lock in gains in case the market turns higher, Insider will continue to monitor market conditions and may consider recommending selling the remaining DEC 580 puts if conditions warrant it. While many unknowns could still shock the market higher, seasonality and current trends suggest we may not see a shift to higher prices until after harvest.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn.  In 2012, the best pricing opportunities for Dec 2013 corn were during the 2012 summer runup.  Despite the significant yield losses to the 2012 crop, and the fear of running out of corn, the Dec 2013 contract peaked in the summer of 2012, and by Jan 2 of 2013, the price was already down about 12% from the high. We continue to watch the calendar for 2024 corn as this 2023 summer volatility could provide some additional opportunities to get some good early sales on the books in the event of a 2013 type repeat. Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to prior early sales levels between now and the beginning of September.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures saw some corrective and consolidation action on the session, with Dec corn finishing 6 cents higher. The market was supported by some short covering in an oversold market and supportive price action in the soybean market.

  • The corn market added some weather premium as the short-term forecasts are showing significantly warmer and drier conditions over the Corn Belt into early next week.

  • Cash basis has trended softer as the market is getting more comfortable with corn supplies from harvest a couple months away. The recent push lower in prices has moved U.S. corn to a more comfortable position versus Brazil’s export prices for the fall months. The key being, we will need to see if demand picks up in this window.

  • Weekly export sales will be released on Thursday morning. Expectations are for 0-250,000 MT in sales for old crop, and 500,000-1,000,000 MT of new crop sales last week. 

  • The U.S. Dollar Index continues its recent rally, challenging resistance at Monday’s highs and trading at its highest level in 6-weeks. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against the Russian ruble, Brazilian real and the Chinese yaun currencies, which will impact export demand and the competition from Russian wheat prices, limiting the corn markets short term rally potential.

Above: The market has been in retreat since late July and has traded through the July low 474 in the September contract, it also continues to show signs of being oversold. If bullish influences enter the market and turn prices higher, resistance above the market could be found between 495 – 516. Below the market, the next area of major support may be found near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from the changing weather forecasts, crop conditions, and export sales. We ended the month of July experiencing hot conditions with little rainfall and weak export sales. Since then, conditions have become more favorable, and export sales have picked up. While much of the crop remains in drought conditions, which can maintain upside potential, timely rains may come and push prices lower. Much like in 2012, when July was dry, and the pattern changed in August, when decent rain fell in parts of the western Corn Belt and IL, sending Nov ’12 soybeans down 20%. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher along with both soybean meal and oil, as the hot and dry two-week weather forecast adds support to prices and may lower crop ratings slightly. The recent rains came at a good time for pod fill, but the heat could ding yields.

  • World vegetable oils have been strong over the past few days with Malaysian palm oil supporting soybean oi,l which has had three consecutively higher closes. Additionally, domestic demand for soybean oil for biofuels has been increasing.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report for July was supportive as it revealed a record large crush number of 173.3 million bushels. Crush margins have been profitable, which has incentivized processors, increasing soybean demand. Soybean oil stocks fell more than expected to a 10-month low of 1.527 billion pounds.

  • In China, economic data was released that showed weaker growth than the country had been previously touting. Industrial production came in at 3.7% versus the estimate of 4.4%, and retail sales were only 2.5% compared to the estimate of 4.5%.

Above: Since the end of July, the trend in the soybean market has been down with choppy trade, and has been showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices reverse higher. If nearby soybeans can break out of the range to the upside, resistance can be found near 1400 and again around 1450.  If prices break to the downside, support below the market may be found between 1318 – 1300.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Renewed Russian attacks on Danube River terminals in Ukraine were not enough to interest traders today. Chicago wheat posted small losses, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures had only modest gains.

  • The US Dollar Index has been on both sides of neutral throughout today’s session, but did break through the 200 day moving average today and was in positive territory into the grain market’s close. This likely added pressure to wheat; the index has not been above this average since December 2022.

  • From a technical perspective, all three US wheat futures classes are oversold and due for a correction. It is worth noting, however, that a commodity can become and remain oversold for quite some time during a strong downtrend.

  • Weather could become a more important factor in the southern hemisphere with the evolving El Nino pattern. Argentina and Australia in particular, could see drought conditions with significant impact on crops.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 660 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea.  While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.

  •  No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: The Chicago wheat market shows signs of additional short positions entering the market with open interest rising as prices decline. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which could be supportive if bullish news enters the market and prices turn higher. Key support remains below the market around 573, with resistance above the market between 658 – 684.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season with continued dryness concerns in not only the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. As harvest begins, there typically isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest is complete, although, both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. This year has been marked with volatility from adverse weather to geopolitical disruptions and has given us historically good prices to begin making early sales. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will continue to consider making sales recommendations if prices improve, while also keeping an eye on the downside should prices break support.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since 7/25/23, the market has been in a down trend and is oversold. Currently, key support below the market lies near the May low of 769, with the next support level near the June ’21 low of 730. Above the market, nearby resistance could be found near 835 – 850.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: August 16, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 469.75 5.75
DEC ’23 481.25 5.75
DEC ’24 506.5 2.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1328.75 23.5
JAN ’24 1338.75 23.25
NOV ’24 1272.25 16
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 602.25 3.75
DEC ’23 627.75 4
JUL ’24 671.5 -0.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 740.5 3
DEC ’23 749.5 4
JUL ’24 741.25 5.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 793 6.5
DEC ’23 808 6
SEP ’24 808 7.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4459.5 5.5
Crude Oil
OCT ’23 80.43 -0.07
Gold
OCT ’23 1916.3 -0.2

  • Corn is trading slightly higher near midday after Russia attacked Odesa with more drones overnight and also struck grain silos and warehouses on the Danube River at the port of Reni.

  • Brazil has maintained the advantage in global corn exports, but now the US is on par with Brazilian FOB prices into November which could cause US exports to pick up.

  • The next two weeks  forecast is to be very dry and hot over the Corn Belt, which could cause crop ratings to fall and may be supportive to prices.

  • The EIA will report on ethanol production today with average production estimates seen at 1.035 m b/d and stockpiles down from the previous week at 22.83 m bbl.

  • Soybeans have recovered slightly from yesterday’s selloff and have been trading in a tight range over the past week. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.

  • Export sales have picked up, which has been supportive, but the recent rains have greatly improved crop ratings, and a larger crop is possible, which has made it difficult for soybeans to rally further.

  • Palm oil prices have picked up, which has been supportive of soybean oil, causing it to be up for three consecutive days. Biodiesel usage has grown, which has helped support demand.

  • The July NOPA report revealed a record large crush of 173.3 mb, with profitable crush margins in a range of 3 to 4 dollars incentivizing processors.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher, but is surprisingly quiet considering last night’s attacks on grain facilities in Odesa, as well as ports on the Danube River that Ukraine has been attempting to use to export grains.

  • Wheat has remained very oversold and has struggled to rally on bullish news because Russia continues to export wheat at much cheaper levels than other competitors.

  • Globally, apart from Russia, many countries are struggling with weather negatively impacting their wheat crops. Argentina and Australia are dealing with dryness due to the El Nino pattern. India, Canada, and the US have also dealt with weather issues.

  • A container ship has left the port of Odesa in the Black Sea despite Russia’s threats to attack vessels after Ukraine announced their own humanitarian corridor to release the cargo ships that have been stuck.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 16, 2023

Bygmidev

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 466.25 2.25
DEC ’23 478.25 2.75
DEC ’24 504.75 1

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1312.75 7.5
JAN ’24 1323.5 8
NOV ’24 1263.25 7

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 606.25 7.75
DEC ’23 631.75 8
JUL ’24 675.75 4

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 738.75 1.25
DEC ’23 747.75 2.25
JUL ’24 733.5 -2.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 793.5 7
DEC ’23 808.75 6.75
SEP ’24 804.25 4

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4450.25 -3.75

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 80.47 -0.03

Gold

OCT ’23 1917.9 1.4

  • The corn market is trading higher this morning with the forecast showing warm and dry conditions for the next two weeks. 

  • While weather conditions for the end of August will warm up, the improved crop conditions have some analysts thinking the current USDA yield estimate of 175.1 bpa may be too low and could rise in subsequent reports, adding to the already comfortable 23/24 ending stocks.

  • Dalian corn futures traded sharply lower on increased concerns about the Chinese economy. 

  • There are reports that ethanol stocks in Brazil are piling up on weakening demand as gasoline prices have gotten cheaper and more competitive with ethanol.  

  • Oversold conditions and a change in the forecast to warm and dry for the next two weeks have soybeans trading higher this morning along with higher soybean meal and oil.

  • Yesterday’s U.S. NOPA crush report showed that NOPA members crushed 173.3 mb of soybeans last month, an increase of 1.8% from year ago levels and above expectations.

  • Despite the increase in crush, soybean oil stocks were only 1,527 mil. lbs, a 10-month low, which highlights the increased use for domestic biofuel demand.

  • Soybean oil prices are also getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.

  • Demand for soybean meal continues to be strong in China as prices remain firm despite the county’s weak economic data.

  • Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures are firmer this morning while K.C. futures are mixed, as the market recovers somewhat on oversold conditions.

  • Reports of increased Russian drone attacks on a Danube River port may be adding support to the market. 

  • The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is in negotiations with Ukraine, Turkey and Romania with the goal to increase Ukraine’s grain export capacity to 4 mmt/month through alternative routes including using the Danube River.

  • Currently, following the recent decline, U.S. Soft Red Winter wheat export prices are below EU offers and $13/mt below Russia and could add support to the market and increase export sales. 

  • There are thoughts in the market that U.S. wheat buyers are covered through the end of the year and may be staying out of the market for now.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: August 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover weakness from wheat and soybeans, along with higher crop ratings, added pressure to the corn market today as December corn closed below the July low of 481-3/4.

  • Improved crop ratings and concerns over weakness in China’s economy weighed heavily on the soybean and soybean meal markets.  Soybean oil on the other hand found support from higher palm oil prices on talk of increased India demand.

  • Even though tensions are rising in the Black Sea, all three wheat classes closed lower on continued technical selling from low demand due to low Russian export prices and increased Russian production.

  • With the financial markets largely believing the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle, the debate regarding interest rates is beginning to turn from how high will they go, to how long will they stay this high? Elevated rates supportive to the U.S. dollar and add resistance to commodity prices.

  • To see the current U.S. 6 – 10-day and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation outlooks, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for the 2023 corn crop. This year’s growing season has been marked by dry conditions and changing weather forecasts, which have swung prices nearly 150 cents from high to low. Though dry conditions remain with a great amount of variability in crop conditions from region to region, weather forecasts remain favorable for now, and it may not be until after harvest before we know the full effect this growing season had on yields. Just as Insider recently recommended selling half of the previously recommended DEC 580 puts to lock in gains in case the market turns higher, Insider will continue to monitor market conditions and may consider recommending selling the remaining DEC 580 puts if conditions warrant it. While many unknowns could still shock the market higher, seasonality and current trends suggest we may not see a shift to higher prices until after harvest.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn.  In 2012, the best pricing opportunities for Dec 2013 corn were during the 2012 summer runup.  Despite the significant yield losses to the 2012 crop, and the fear of running out of corn, the Dec 2013 contract peaked in the summer of 2012, and by Jan 2 of 2013, the price was already down about 12% from the high. We continue to watch the calendar for 2024 corn as this 2023 summer volatility could provide some additional opportunities to get some good early sales on the books in the event of a 2013 type repeat. Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to prior early sales levels between now and the beginning of September.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Strong selling pressure across the markets in general helped push Dec corn futures to new lows for the move, losing 12 ¼ cents on the day. Prices saw additional selling pressure as Dec crossed through support at the $4.80 price level, triggering long liquidation and technical selling. Price action remains weak in the corn market.

  • The improved weather saw corn conditions rating jump to 59% good to Excellent, up 2% over last week, and now higher than last year’s levels. Analysts were expecting a 1% increase.  Key states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Missouri saw improvements from recent rainfall totals.

  • The improved crop conditions have some analysts in the corn market feeling the current USDA yield of 175.1 may be too low and will increase in future reports, increasing the supply side of the corn balance sheet.

  • An upcoming heat ridge building into the end of the week will likely bring well above normal temperatures that could stress the developing crop. The market will be focused on the length of the heat wave and any potential stress. 

  • Wheat prices struggled and broke technical support, putting spillover pressure into the corn market. The Russian ruble has tumbled in value, making the already less expensive Russian wheat more attractive to the export market.

Above: The market has been in retreat since late July and has traded through the July low 474 in the September contract, it also continues to show signs of being oversold. If bullish influences enter the market and turn prices higher, resistance above the market could be found between 495 – 516. Below the market, the next area of major support may be found near 415.

2023/24 Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from the changing weather forecasts, crop conditions, and export sales. We ended the month of July experiencing hot conditions with little rainfall and weak export sales. Since then, conditions have become more favorable, and export sales have picked up. While much of the crop remains in drought conditions, which can maintain upside potential, timely rains may come and push prices lower. Much like in 2012, when July was dry, and the pattern changed in August, when decent rain fell in parts of the western Corn Belt and IL, sending Nov ’12 soybeans down 20%. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following yesterday’s Crop Progress report, which showed significant improvements in crop ratings for soybeans. Additional pressure has come from weak Chinese economic data. Soybean meal closed lower, while bean oil closed higher.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean crop’s good to excellent rating improving by 5% nationally to 59%. Illinois had one of the sharpest recoveries with an improvement of 12 points to 70% good to excellent. The upcoming dry and hot weather forecast could hurt yields, which would be supportive to prices.

  • In China, economic data was released that showed weaker growth than the country had been previously touting. Industrial production came in at 3.7% versus the estimate of 4.4%, and retail sales were only 2.5% compared to the estimate of 4.5%.

  • Yesterday’s large sale of 15.3 mb of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year was an addition to the recent string of sales, and demand in the U.S. remains strong as well, with profitable crush margins incentivizing processors.

Above: Since early August, the market has been consolidating between 1326 and 1370, and has been showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices reverse higher. If nearby soybeans can break out of the range to the upside, resistance can be found near 1400 and again around 1450. If prices break to the downside, support below the market may be found between 1318 – 1300.

2023/24 Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Black Sea tensions are not offering much support to the wheat market, despite the fact that Russian missiles caused civilian deaths in western Ukraine. Additionally, the Russian ruble has tumbled in value, making already less expensive Russian wheat more attractive to the export market.

  • IKAR increased their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 89.5 mmt versus previous estimates of 88 mmt. They cite higher yields in some areas as the reason for the revision.

  • Spring wheat condition improved 1% on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report to 42% good to excellent. Additionally, spring wheat harvest is said to be 24% complete, while winter wheat is 92% harvested.

  • By this weekend, temperatures are expected to be 90-100+ degrees as far North as South Dakota and could cause some late season stress for crops. While it will have less of a direct impact on wheat, the impact on corn and soybeans could affect grain prices as a whole.

  • Wheat harvest has started in Parana (Brazil). So far, it looks like production will be behind last year. CONAB estimated Brazil’s wheat output at 10.41 mmt, which would be down 1.4% from last year. They may still have a domestic surplus, however, which could mean more exports and competition for the U.S.

  • Funds are likely adding to short positions in Chicago wheat and are now estimated to be short about 70,000 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 crop.  Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest mostly in the rearview mirror, US production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction.  While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 700 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea.  While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.

  •  No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: The Chicago wheat market shows signs of additional short positions entering the market with open interest rising as prices decline. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which could be supportive if bullish news enters the market and prices turn higher. Key support remains below the market around 573, with resistance above the market between 658 – 684.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.

2023/24 Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season with continued dryness concerns in not only the US, but also Canada and Australia. As we enter harvest season, there isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest, although both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. This year has been marked with volatility from adverse weather to geopolitical disruptions and has given us historically good prices to begin making early sales. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will continue to consider making sales recommendations if prices improve, while also keeping an eye on the downside should prices break support.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since 7/25/23, the market has been in a down trend and is oversold. Currently, key support below the market lies near the May low of 769, with the next support level near the June ’21 low of 730. Above the market, nearby resistance could be found near 835 – 850.

2023/24 Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

2023/24 Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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Midday Update: August 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 467.75 -8
DEC ’23 479 -8.75
DEC ’24 505.5 -4.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1310.5 -15.5
JAN ’24 1320.5 -14.25
NOV ’24 1261.25 -4.5
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 600 -16
DEC ’23 626 -15.5
JUL ’24 674 -15.5
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 741.75 -8.75
DEC ’23 749 -10.25
JUL ’24 738 -14
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 794.75 -10.75
DEC ’23 807.75 -12.25
SEP ’24 810 -2.25
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4471.25 -34.75
Crude Oil
OCT ’23 80.56 -1.36
Gold
OCT ’23 1920.1 -5.1

  • Corn is trading lower near midday and continues to test the recent low of 4.81 in December, but has not yet broken through it.

  • The good to excellent rating for corn rose by 2% to 59% and is now rated higher than last year’s crop at this time. 96% of the crop is silking, while 65% is dough stage.

  • While the forecast calls for hot and dry conditions throughout the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, the western Plains are expected to be especially hot with triple digit temperatures forecast.

  • Rain is falling in Brazil, which is slowing their second crop corn harvest, but it is also helping their upcoming planting conditions which will begin next month.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning following a big improvement in crop ratings. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher.

  • Crop progress saw a 5% increase in the good to excellent rating for soybeans, with 78% of the crop setting pods.

  • Yesterday’s large sale of 15.3 mb of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year was an addition to the recent string of sales, and demand in the U.S. remains strong as well.

  • Palm oil prices are expected to rise slightly due to El Niño concerns, in which the impact will mostly be seen in 2024. This should help support soybean oil.

  • Wheat is trading lower at midday following crop progress, which showed spring wheat conditions improving and winter wheat harvest nearly completed.

  • 92% of the winter wheat crop is harvested with Washington, Idaho, and Montana with more still to harvest. 24% of spring wheat has been harvested, and the next week is dry and favorable for more progress.

  • Russian FOB wheat offers have risen by $21 per metric ton over the past few weeks, and although they maintain the competitive advantage, U.S. prices are becoming more competitive.

  • Reuters reported that Russian missiles caused damage and civilian fatalities in western Ukraine this morning as the fighting continues to escalate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 471.5 -4.25
DEC ’23 483.25 -4.5
DEC ’24 508.5 -1.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1319.5 -6.5
JAN ’24 1328.5 -6.25
NOV ’24 1261 -4.75
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 609.5 -6.5
DEC ’23 635 -6.5
JUL ’24 684 -5.5
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 749.75 -0.75
DEC ’23 757.5 -1.75
JUL ’24 752 0
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 802.75 -2.75
DEC ’23 817.25 -2.75
SEP ’24 812.25 -4.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4479.75 -26.25
Crude Oil
OCT ’23 81.13 -0.79
Gold
OCT ’23 1915.2 -10

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after crop progress was released yesterday afternoon which showed the corn crop improving.

  • The good to excellent rating for corn rose by 2% to 59% and is now rated higher than last year’s crop at this time. 96% of the crop is silking and 65% is doughing.

  • The upcoming hot and dry forecast that is expected to last around 2 weeks may impact ear fill, especially in areas that have didn’t receive as much rain.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were slow at 15.6 mb but were slightly above the previous week. There was a cargo to China, but Mexico is still the number 1 importer of US corn.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with front month September leading the way after an improvement in crop ratings. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.

  • Crop progress saw a 5% increase in the good to excellent rating for soybeans with 78% of the crop setting pods.

  • The 7-day forecast contains almost no rain for the Midwest and could impact yields, but things would be more concerning if not for the recent rains.

  • Soybean inspections totaled 10.9 mb for the week ending August 10, and total inspections are now down 8% from the previous year.

  • Wheat is lower again this morning after crop progress showed a slight improvement to spring wheat ratings.

  • Crop progress showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings increasing by 1% to 42%. Spring wheat is now 24% harvested vs 11% last week, and winter wheat is now 92% harvested vs 87% last week.

  • IKAR has raised their estimate for the Russian wheat crop once again to 89.5 mmt vs 88 mmt, and traders seem confident that those grains will actually get exported despite the war.

  • Despite Russia pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine has begun registering ships for another Black Sea corridor to release cargo ships that have been trapped.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: August 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After trading on both sides of unchanged and testing technical support on weak U.S. export inspections, the corn market was able to close mid-range and in positive territory on a warmer, drier forecast.

  • Strong U.S. export inspections, a new flash sale reported from the USDA this morning, and a hot and dry forecast for the second half of August, with temperatures possibly reaching triple digits, lent support to the soybean complex which closed near the day’s highs.

  • Despite rising tensions in the Black Sea region over the weekend, weak U.S. export inspections and a higher Russian wheat export forecast weighed heavily on all three wheat classes, which all closed lower on the day.

  • The U.S. dollar traded to its highest level in over five weeks, possibly adding some resistance to grain futures, on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials remarking that additional interest rate hikes may still be needed. So far, the financial futures markets are predicting an 88% likelihood that rates will stay unchanged at the next Fed meeting on Sept. 20.

  • To see the current U.S. 1-5 day precipitation forecast and the 6 – 10-day Temperature and Precipitation outlooks, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for the 2023 corn crop. This year’s growing season has been marked by dry conditions and changing weather forecasts, which have swung prices nearly 150 cents from high to low. Though dry conditions remain with a great amount of variability in crop conditions from region to region, weather forecasts remain favorable for now, and it may not be until after harvest before we know the full effect this growing season had on yields. Just as Insider recently recommended selling half of the previously recommended DEC 580 puts to lock in gains in case the market turns higher, Insider will continue to monitor market conditions and may consider recommending selling the remaining DEC 580 puts if conditions warrant it. While many unknowns could still shock the market higher, seasonality and current trends suggest we may not see a shift to higher prices until after harvest.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn.  In 2012, the best pricing opportunities for Dec 2013 corn were during the 2012 summer runup.  Despite the significant yield losses to the 2012 crop, and the fear of running out of corn, the Dec 2013 contract peaked in the summer of 2012, and by Jan 2 of 2013, the price was already down about 12% from the high. We continue to watch the calendar for 2024 corn as this 2023 summer volatility could provide some additional opportunities to get some good early sales on the books in the event of a 2013 type repeat. Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to prior early sales levels between now and the beginning of September.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures fought off session lows and selling pressure from the wheat market to finish slightly higher on the session. Technical support and a possible hotter forecast may have helped bring some buying into the oversold corn market.

  • Friday’s USDA crop production numbers remain bearish even with the reduced yield, as demand cuts keep carryout over 2 billion bushels, which indicates an overall potential heavy corn supply picture.

  • Weekly export inspections were within expectations at 15.7 mb last week. Total corn inspections are slightly behind the pace to reach the USDA marketing year target, and down 33% from last year with the marketing year ending on Aug 30.

  • December futures held the July 13 low of $4.81 during the session, which may have led to some technical buying and short covering. The key will be additional strength and follow through to establish a possible short-term uptrend.

  • With favorable weather recently, weekly crop ratings are expected to rise by 1% nationally to 58% on the USDA Crop Progress Report on Monday afternoon.

Above: Since the end of July, the corn market has retreated and is showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if reversal action occurs. For now, the market continues to test support around 475 in the September contract. If support holds and prices turn higher, resistance above the market could be found near 495 – 513. If the 475 area fails and the market retreats, the next area of major support may be found near 415.

Money Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Aug. 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 43,397  contracts between Aug. 1 – Aug. 8, bringing their total position to a net short 16,741 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from the changing weather forecasts, crop conditions, and export sales. We ended the month of July experiencing hot conditions with little rainfall and weak export sales. Since then, conditions have become more favorable, and export sales have picked up. While much of the crop remains in drought conditions, which can maintain upside potential, timely rains may come and push prices lower. Much like in 2012, when July was dry, and the pattern changed in August, when decent rain fell in parts of the western Corn Belt and IL, sending Nov ’12 soybeans down 20%. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans began the day higher along with both soybean meal and oil and ended slightly below the highs of the day following Friday’s friendly USDA report and a bullish weather forecast.

  • While the past few weeks have provided good and necessary rains over most of the Midwest, the forecast has changed and now shows very dry and hot conditions that are expected to last through the month and possibly into September.

  • Possibly the most supportive news today was the report of a sale of 416,000 mt of new crop soybeans to unknown destinations for 23/24. This comes following a string of recent sales to China and unknown destinations and is encouraging for demand.

  • To recap Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA dropped soybean yields by 1.1 bpa to 50.9 bpa and dropped new crop ending stocks by 55 mb to 245 mb which is very tight. Export estimates were also dropped to account for the anticipation of the smaller crop.

Above: Since early August the market has been consolidating between 1326 and 1370, and has been showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices reverse higher. If nearby soybeans can break out of the range to the upside, resistance can be found near 1400 and again around 1450. If not, initial support below the market may be found near 1326 with further support between 1318 – 1300.

Soybeans Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Aug. 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 30,412 contracts between Aug. 1 – Aug. 8, bringing their total position to a net long 64,081 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite more tension in the Black Sea, wheat closed lower today. Over the weekend it was reported that there were Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, as well as a Russian oil tanker. Russia is said to have also fired warning shots at a boarded private vessel.

  • Ukraine has reportedly started to register vessels that are willing to use their “humanitarian corridor”. This goes directly in the face of Russia’s statement that they would treat any civilian ships in the Black Sea as carrying military cargo, making any trip dangerous. In any case, it could mean that more grain shipments will make their way out of Ukraine.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections were poor at 6.7 mb, roughly half of what is needed weekly to reach the USDA’s 700 mb estimate for 23/24 and bring total 23/24 inspections to 118 mb.

  • Last week the USDA increased their estimate of Russian 23/24 wheat exports to 48 mmt. However, they also said that global inventories will decline to the lowest level since 15/16.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index is continuing to trend higher and kept pressure on wheat today. The index did run into resistance at the 200-day moving average of 103.48, and though it has not been above that average since December of 2022, if it continues to move higher it will further hamper the export market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 crop.  Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest mostly in the rearview mirror, US production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction.  While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 700 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea.  While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.

  •  No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: The Chicago wheat market shows signs of additional shorts positions entering the market with open interest rising as prices decline. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which could be supportive if bullish news enters the market and prices turn higher. Psychological support remains below the market around 600 with key support near 573. Resistance above the market lies between 658 – 684.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Aug. 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,967 contracts between Aug. 1 – Aug. 8, bringing their total position to a net short 55,395 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September KC wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is poised to test the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows.  Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, and is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Aug. 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,976 contracts between Aug. 1 – Aug. 8, bringing their total position to a net long 5,257 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season with continued dryness concerns in not only the US, but also Canada and Australia. As we enter harvest season, there isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest, although both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. This year has been marked with volatility from adverse weather to geopolitical disruptions and has given us historically good prices to begin making early sales. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will continue to consider making sales recommendations if prices improve, while also keeping an eye on the downside should prices break support.

  • No Action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the bearish reversal on 7/25, the market has retreated and is oversold, which could be supportive if prices reverse higher. For now, support below the market may be found near the psychological support level of 800, while resistance remains above the market near 950.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Aug. 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,095 contracts between Aug. 1 – Aug. 8, bringing their total position to a net long 4,497 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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Midday Update: August 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 471.25 -3.25
DEC ’23 483.5 -3.75
DEC ’24 508 -1.25
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1323 15.5
JAN ’24 1332.5 15.25
NOV ’24 1263.25 8.25
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 607.75 -19
DEC ’23 634.25 -19.5
JUL ’24 683.5 -19.5
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 736 -19.75
DEC ’23 746.25 -19.75
JUL ’24 747.75 -18.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 805 -10
DEC ’23 819 -11.25
SEP ’24 809.25 -7.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4493 12.25
Crude Oil
OCT ’23 82.07 -0.5
Gold
OCT ’23 1923.9 -3.8

  • Corn is trading slightly lower today but rebounded slightly after hitting its recent low of 4.81 in December and was unable to take that level out.

  • Friday’s USDA report estimated corn yield 2.4 bpa lower than the previous guess and is now expecting the national yield at 175.1 bpa.

  • While the USDA’s drop in yield estimates was friendly, they also lowered US corn exports which put ending stocks over 2.0 bb, so the overall report reaction was bearish.

  • Rains fell throughout the Northern Plains and northern Midwest over the weekend, but the forecast is now showing a drier trend for the rest of August and maybe even into September.

  • Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal and oil on the heels of Friday’s WASDE report which showed a very tight ending stocks number.

  • Soybeans are also getting support from a flash sale reported by private exporters this morning to unknown destinations of 416,000 mt of soybeans.

  • India, who is the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils, reportedly imported 59% more palm oil in June but their imports of soybean oil fell by 22%.

  • On Friday, the USDA estimated new crop ending stocks at 245 mb, a decline of 55 mb. Yields were also lowered by 1.1 bpa from July, but recent rains may have given yield numbers a boost.

  • Wheat is trading lower around midday despite tension further escalating between Russia and Ukraine. Friday’s report showed US winter wheat yields improving which may be adding pressure.

  • Over the weekend, Russia fired warning shots at a civilian vessel in the Black Sea and sent more drones to the port of Odesa. Russia has said that they would retaliate for the attacks on the Crimean bridge.

  • Russian FOB wheat offers have risen by $21 per metric ton over the past few weeks, and although they maintain the competitive advantage, US prices are becoming more competitive.

  • The WASDE report showed US ending stocks rising by 23 mb due to declines in demand, but other countries may see their ending stocks falling due to lower production. Argentina, Canada, India, and Australia are all having weather difficulties.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 472.5 -2
DEC ’23 484.5 -2.75
DEC ’24 507.25 -2
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1319.25 11.75
JAN ’24 1328.5 11.25
NOV ’24 1262 7
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 621.5 -5.25
DEC ’23 648 -5.75
JUL ’24 696.25 -6.75
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 749 -6.75
DEC ’23 759.5 -6.5
JUL ’24 757 -9
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 812.25 -2.75
DEC ’23 828 -2.25
SEP ’24 817 0
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4490 9.25
Crude Oil
OCT ’23 82.23 -0.34
Gold
OCT ’23 1926.8 -0.9

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning following Friday’s WASDE report which showed a decline in expected demand.

  • The weather forecast has turned more bullish with the 7-day forecast showing very little rain in the Corn Belt and hotter temperatures.

  • In Brazil, corn on the Bovespa exchange fell by 1.5% as the second crop corn harvest has estimates pointing to a record output.

  • Brazilian farmers have now harvested 72.84% of their second crop corn compared to 83.41% at this time last year. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil. The drier forecast could impact soybean yields.

  • China’s soybean imports were up 15% between January and July with an estimated 62.3 mmt imported in that timeframe.

  • NOPA July US soybean crush is expected at 171.337 mb which would be up from June’s 9-month low.

  • In India, July vegetable oil imports rose to 1.77 mmt with palm imports rising the most from 683,133 tons to 1.09 mmt.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning and is testing the lower end of the trading range. Friday’s USDA report shows winter wheat yields improving added pressure.

  • Russia’s wheat exports have been huge but are expected to get even bigger as the country dominates the global export market. They are expected to export 47 mmt in 23/24.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is exceeding expectations and could be 5% higher than in 2022 thanks to favorable weather.

  • Despite Russia pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine has begun registering ships for another Black Sea corridor to release cargo ships that have been trapped.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.