Private exporters reported sales of 112,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year, and 112,000 mt during 25/26.
The US Commerce Secretary, Gina Raimondo, will be heading to China to meet with officials and business leaders in an effort to stabilize relations between the two countries.
On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, corn condition declined 1% to 58% good to excellent.
Day one of the Pro Farmer crop tour found a corn yield in South Dakota of 157 bpa (vs 118.5 last year and 150 average).
September corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $9.69 per bushel.
The weather pattern looks to remain hot and dry this week. Some models do have rain across areas of Missouri and Nebraska late in the week, but at this time, there are no widespread systems forecasted through the end of the month.
Day one of the Pro Farmer crop tour found soybean pod counts in South Dakota at 1013 (vs 871 last year and an average of 1040).
On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, soybean condition was unchanged at 59% good to excellent.
September soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange closed at a new 2023 high, the equivalent of $19.82 per bushel.
SovEcon raised their 2023 Russian wheat harvest projection from 87.1 mmt to 92.1 mmt.
Media outlets have reported plans are being developed to use public funds to insure vessels out of Ukraine and through the Black Sea (along the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria). While this has inherent risk, Ukraine’s “humanitarian corridor” may be used to transport more grain out of the country, and this is weighing on futures.
On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, spring wheat condition declined 4% to 38% good to excellent. Additionally, harvest is now 39% complete.
Taiwan flour millers are tendering for 104,000 mt of US milling wheat this week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but is quiet as trade seems mostly unfazed by the hot and dry conditions.
Temperatures between the 90’s and 100’s will stretch as far north as South Dakota and Minnesota and as far east as Indiana and Kentucky before cooling off after Thursday.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed good to excellent ratings for corn slipping by one point to 58% with 78% in the dough stage and 4% mature.
The Pro farmer crop tour in South Dakota yesterday saw corn yields averaging 157.4 bpa according to 91 samples taken. Last year, the average was 118.45 bpa.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning and are getting pulled lower by lower soybean oil while soybean meal trades a bit higher.
The USDA kept the good to excellent rating steady at 59% good to excellent which is good considering the heat and dryness lately.
September soybeans on the Dalian exchange hit a new 2023 high today and are trading at the equivalent of $19.82 a bushel. This could explain the recent string of purchases from the US.
The Profarmer tour in South Dakota found an average of 1,013 pods within 3 square foot averages which is only slightly below the 3-year average. In Ohio, the counts came in at 1,049 pods.
All three wheat contracts are trading slightly higher this morning as prices try to find support among the lowest prices of the year.
Yesterday, prices fell after reports came out that Ukraine would be exporting grain through a new humanitarian corridor that hugs the coastline.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA said that 96% of the winter wheat crop was harvested with work incomplete in Washington, Ohio, and Montana.
39% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested which is below the 5-year average pace of 46%. For what is left, the good to excellent ratings were lowered from 42% to 38%.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
A lack of day session strength in wheat and soybeans helped corn erase overnight gains and shed double digits to start the week. Traders will closely watch the Pro Farmer Crop tour this week as it progresses across the Midwest.
Soybeans closed slightly higher, but well off of their early morning highs. Some forecast models have turned wetter and cooler in the last few days of August, which should help ease crop stress.
Soybean meal held onto early gains to close higher, while soybean oil closed lower after running into overnight resistance at the late July highs.
The lack of new news out of the Black Sea region over the weekend pressured all three US wheat classes as they closed lower.
To see the current U.S. 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook, and the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
Corn Action Plan Summary
No action is recommended for the 2023 corn crop. This year’s growing season has been marked by dry conditions and changing weather forecasts, which have swung prices nearly 150 cents from high to low. Though dry conditions remain, with a great amount of variability in crop conditions from region to region, it may not be until after harvest before we know the full effect this growing season had on yields. Just as Insider recently recommended selling half of the previously recommended DEC 580 puts to lock in gains in case the market turns higher, Insider will continue to monitor market conditions and may consider recommending selling the remaining DEC 580 puts if conditions warrant it. While many unknowns could still shock the market higher, seasonality and current trends suggest we may not see a shift to higher prices until after harvest.
No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn.In 2012, the best pricing opportunities for Dec 2013 corn were during the 2012 summer runup. Despite the significant yield losses to the 2012 crop, and the fear of running out of corn, the Dec 2013 contract peaked in the summer of 2012, and by Jan 2 of 2013, the price was already down about 12% from the high. We continue to watch the calendar for 2024 corn as this 2023 summer volatility could provide some additional opportunities to get some good early sales on the books in the event of a 2013 type repeat. Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to prior early sales levels between now and the beginning of September.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn.2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Corn futures reversed overnight strength to finish with double digit losses to start the week. The market seemed to move past the hot weather forecast to focus on the early results from Pro Farmer Crop tour and longer-range weather forecast. The lack of strength in the wheat market helped lead corn lower as well. Price action was very weak on the session.
Pro Farmer started its annual crop tour, while no official numbers have been posted in the areas evaluated today. Social media was showing relatively good yields in those areas, which may have triggered some selling into the market.
This week’s hot temperatures will likely stress crops, but Euro weather models are forecasting for improved rainfall and more moderate temperature to end the month. The market will be watching the gulf as a potential tropical storm could develop bring moisture into Texas. The path of that moisture will be watched next week.
Weekly export inspections brought litter supportive news. Last week’s shipments were at 17.5 mb, which was behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.
The USDA announced a flash sale of corn as 111,770 MT were sold to Mexico for the 2023-24 marketing year.
Above: The market has been in retreat since late July and has traded through the July low 474 in the September contract, it also continues to show signs of being oversold. If bullish influences enter the market and turn prices higher, resistance above the market could be found between 495 – 516. Below the market, the next area of major support may be found near 415.
Soybeans
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans.This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from the changing weather forecasts, crop conditions, and export sales. We ended the month of July experiencing hot conditions with little rainfall and weak export sales. Since then, conditions have become more favorable, and export sales have picked up. While much of the crop remains in drought conditions, which can maintain upside potential, timely rains may come and push prices lower. Much like in 2012, when July was dry, and the pattern changed in August, when decent rain fell in parts of the western Corn Belt and IL, sending Nov ’12 soybeans down 20%. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.
No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Soybeans ended the day higher, but backed significantly off their early morning highs, which saw prices up as much as 24 cents. Both soy products were higher this morning as well, but soybean meal slipped throughout the day for a lower close.
November soybeans gapped higher overnight filling the gap from July at 13.97, but left a new gap at 13.55. Stochastics are leaning towards overbought and prices could slip if crop conditions improve, or weather conditions turn wetter and cooler.
While export sales have been well behind a year ago, China has been making small purchases over the past few weeks. This morning, a sale of 159,530 metric tons was reported to unknown destinations for the 23/24 year.
Weekly export inspections for soybeans totaled 11.6 mb for the week ending Thursday, August 17, with total inspections at 1.894 bb, down 8% from the previous year.
Polls for the weekly Crop Progress report are showing good to excellent ratings for soybeans, improving by 1 percentage point to 60% after beneficial rains fell.
Above: Since the end of April, the soybean market has been trading sideways. If nearby soybeans can break out of the range to the upside, resistance can be found near 1400 and again around 1450. If prices break to the downside, support below the market may be found between 1318 – 1300.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
Wheat inspections of 11.4 mb bring 23/24 total inspections to 134 mb. That is down 19% from last year, and the USDA is expecting 700 mb of total exports for 23/24.
Despite some Ukraine drone attacks over the weekend in Moscow, which temporarily shut down an airport, traders didn’t have much concern. Likely the bigger item being factored in is the development of their own “corridor” in the Black Sea.
The US dollar is still in an uptrend, and the fact that Matif wheat was also lower both added pressure to the wheat market today. US SRW wheat is now cheaper than French wheat, but as long as exports remain sluggish it will be difficult for the market to rally.
According to the CFTC, as of last Tuesday, funds were short about 66,000 contracts of Chicago wheat. This is an increase to the short position by about 10,000 contracts.
The European Union is considering subsiding the transport of Ukrainian grain through member nations. This is due to several of Ukraine’s neighboring countries banning imports of their grain. Estimated cost would be around 30 Euros per metric ton.
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
No new action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 660 level before considering any additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: The Chicago wheat market shows signs of additional short positions entering the market with open interest rising as prices decline. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which could be supportive if bullish news enters the market and prices turn higher. Key support remains below the market around 573, with resistance above the market between 658 – 684.
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with dry growing conditions and harvest delays, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your HRW wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher. If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season with continued dryness concerns in not only the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. As harvest begins, there typically isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest is complete, although, both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with a wet spring, late planting, and growing conditions that have been less than ideal, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. The K.C. wheat market is highly correlated to the Minneapolis wheat market and much more liquid, which makes it a better choice when employing options strategies for Spring Wheat. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your spring wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: Since 7/25/23, the market has been in a down trend and is oversold. Currently, key support below the market lies near the May low of 769, with the next support level near the June ’21 low of 730. Above the market, nearby resistance could be found near 835 – 850.
Private exporters reported sales of 111,770 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The Pro Farmer tour began today. Last year, they came up with a corn yield around 168 bpa, but the final USDA number was 173 bpa.
China’s economy appears to continue to be struggling; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at a new 2023 low. (This index tracks stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange). Reportedly, they did drop their lending rate this weekend in an effort to stimulate the economy.
According to CONAB, Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is now 72% complete (vs 86% at this time last year). Rains in southern Brazil are causing harvest delays.
Private exporters reported 159,350 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Historically, the Pro Farmer tour finds a soybean yield about 2-3 bushels below the final USDA number.
Hot and dry conditions this week across much of the Midwest could help support the market. This should impact soybeans more than corn at this point in the season.
November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange hit their 2023 high and are trading around the equivalent of $19.11 per bushel.
Soybean oil is getting a boost from Malaysian palm oil, which hit a three week high after a surge in exports.
Wildfires in Washington may have led to the destruction of wheat fields in that area over the weekend. However, at this point, it is not a major issue.
The market appears to be unfazed by new Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow the past couple of days, which led to a temporary shutdown of one of their airports.
Dryness in Argentina and Australia could pose a significant threat to those wheat crops, and disappointing monsoon rains in India could lead to them being a net importer of wheat. The deal between India and Russia regarding a wheat purchase still has no confirmation.
US SRW wheat is now cheaper than French wheat, but the export market is still struggling.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning but has backed off its overnight highs as the dry and hot forecast continues and stresses the crop.
The forecast for the next 7 days offers more rain chances in the Corn Belt than the previous week but is expected to be light, and temperatures are expected to drop later in the week.
According to Conab, Brazil’s second crop corn harvest was 72% complete as of August 12 which was down from 86% this time a year ago. Rains have been delaying their progress.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non commercials as sellers of corn last week by 45,924 contracts increasing their net short position to 72,580 contracts.
Soybeans are significantly higher this morning along with soybean meal and oil as the hot and dry weather affects soybeans most directly as they fill pods.
While Chinese economic growth struggles with deflation and poor economic data, their food demand remains robust with November beans on the Dalian exchange trading at the equivalent of $19.11 a bushel, a new high for this year.
Chinese imports from the US fell by 63% from the previous year as they source their soybeans from Brazil.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 13,362 contracts as of August 15 reducing their net long position to 50,719 contracts.
While corn and soybeans trend higher, wheat is lower and has struggled to gain momentum on poor demand that is effecting global prices.
Ukraine is attempting to use a new “humanitarian corridor” to export grains that will hug the western coastline near Romania and Bulgaria.
Egypt’s total consumption of wheat is expected to reach between 19 and 20 mmt. They are expected to import 10 mmt to meet demand which is 50% of their total consumption.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds piling into their short position increasing it by 10,195 contracts, leaving them net short 65,590 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
A daily export flash sale to Mexico and a dry outlook for the Corn Belt helped corn continue its late week push higher following Wednesday’s bullish reversal.
A warm and dry outlook for at least the next 10 days in the heart of the U.S. rallied soybeans sharply to end the week. November soybean futures added 46-1/2 cents this week, closing above the 200-day moving average for just the second time in the month of August.
Soybean oil futures continued their rally higher for a fifth consecutive trading session challenging recent highs posted in late July. Soybean meal futures also posted gains as buyers defended the $400 per ton level on the continuous chart.
To see the current U.S. 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook, and the U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
Corn Action Plan Summary
No action is recommended for the 2023 corn crop. This year’s growing season has been marked by dry conditions and changing weather forecasts, which have swung prices nearly 150 cents from high to low. Though dry conditions remain, with a great amount of variability in crop conditions from region to region, it may not be until after harvest before we know the full effect this growing season had on yields. Just as Insider recently recommended selling half of the previously recommended DEC 580 puts to lock in gains in case the market turns higher, Insider will continue to monitor market conditions and may consider recommending selling the remaining DEC 580 puts if conditions warrant it. While many unknowns could still shock the market higher, seasonality and current trends suggest we may not see a shift to higher prices until after harvest.
No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn.In 2012, the best pricing opportunities for Dec 2013 corn were during the 2012 summer runup. Despite the significant yield losses to the 2012 crop, and the fear of running out of corn, the Dec 2013 contract peaked in the summer of 2012, and by Jan 2 of 2013, the price was already down about 12% from the high. We continue to watch the calendar for 2024 corn as this 2023 summer volatility could provide some additional opportunities to get some good early sales on the books in the event of a 2013 type repeat. Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to prior early sales levels between now and the beginning of September.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn.2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Private exporters reported sales of 112,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The nearby weather forecast looks hot and dry for much of the Midwest with triple-digit temperatures expected in many areas. While this should not impact corn as much as soybeans at this point in the year, late planted corn could be stressed.
Next week the Pro Farmer tour will begin and will offer yield estimates. Historically during the week of this tour, corn futures lose an average of 10 cents (with soybeans losing 25). The yields found generally also come in below the final USDA yields.
Worsening economic issues in China may have been the anchor on the grain markets this week, but the price trend appears to be turning higher. Both the RSI and stochastics show momentum starting to trend upward.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s 22/23 corn production estimate is unchanged at 34 million tons. Additionally, 90% of the crop is harvested.
Above: The market has been in retreat since late July and has traded through the July low 474 in the September contract, it also continues to show signs of being oversold. If bullish influences enter the market and turn prices higher, resistance above the market could be found between 495 – 516. Below the market, the next area of major support may be found near 415.
Soybeans
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans.This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from the changing weather forecasts, crop conditions, and export sales. We ended the month of July experiencing hot conditions with little rainfall and weak export sales. Since then, conditions have become more favorable, and export sales have picked up. While much of the crop remains in drought conditions, which can maintain upside potential, timely rains may come and push prices lower. Much like in 2012, when July was dry, and the pattern changed in August, when decent rain fell in parts of the western Corn Belt and IL, sending Nov ’12 soybeans down 20%. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.
No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Soybeans ended the day higher along with both soybean meal and oil as forecasts project hot and dry conditions over at least the next seven days which may affect pod fill and yield. Most of the Midwest is expected to be in the 90’s with Des Moines forecast to hit 101 on Tuesday.
With this string of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields. That is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher, which would affect the carryout.
Technically, November soybeans appear to have put a bottom in and are hugging the 50-day moving average which is moving higher. There is a gap on the chart at 13.79 which may be a target.
There were no reported export sales today following yesterday’s export sales report showing 51.7 mb of old crop sales for the previous week. Total new crop soybean sales are currently at 389 million bushels which is well behind last year’s 671 mb at this time, but last year the US didn’t have a massive 5.73 bb Brazilian crop to compete against.
Above: Since the end of July, the trend in the soybean market has been down with choppy trade, and has been showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices reverse higher. If nearby soybeans can break out of the range to the upside, resistance can be found near 1400 and again around 1450. If prices break to the downside, support below the market may be found between 1318 – 1300.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
The first vessel that traveled through Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor, the “Joseph Schulte”, has safely reached Bulgarian waters. Bulgaria is a NATO nation, and this is an indication that more exports could be expected via this route.
According to the National Weather Service, there is a 99% chance that the El Nino weather pattern will continue through fall and a 95% chance that it will last into next year. It is expected to strengthen as we approach winter in the northern Hemisphere.
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said that grain yields will be 1 mmt lower in just the last few weeks, with more potential declines if there isn’t enough rain. Wheat production in particular is said to unlikely be over 10 mmt.
India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia regarding a purchase of 9 mmt of wheat. While this news has been circulating the past few weeks, until now it was just rumors. If the deal goes through it would be the largest grain deal on record between the two nations.
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
No new action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 660 level before considering any additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: The Chicago wheat market shows signs of additional short positions entering the market with open interest rising as prices decline. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which could be supportive if bullish news enters the market and prices turn higher. Key support remains below the market around 573, with resistance above the market between 658 – 684.
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with dry growing conditions and harvest delays, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your HRW wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher. If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season with continued dryness concerns in not only the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. As harvest begins, there typically isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest is complete, although, both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with a wet spring, late planting, and growing conditions that have been less than ideal, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. The K.C. wheat market is highly correlated to the Minneapolis wheat market and much more liquid, which makes it a better choice when employing options strategies for Spring Wheat. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your spring wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: Since 7/25/23, the market has been in a down trend and is oversold. Currently, key support below the market lies near the May low of 769, with the next support level near the June ’21 low of 730. Above the market, nearby resistance could be found near 835 – 850.
Corn is trading higher on a continuing forecast of hot and dry weather that is expected to last at least another 7 days.
Triple digit temperatures are expected today for the western Plains as far north as South Dakota, and the central Corn Belt can expect temperatures in the 90s.
Brazil is harvesting the final third of their second crop corn but will receive rain over the weekend, which could slow down progress.
This morning, the USDA announced a private export sale of 112,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 23/24 year.
Soybeans are trading higher today with the hot and dry forecast supporting prices as they are in corn. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed new crop soybean sales of 389 mb, far below last year’s 671 mb at this time. Exports have been a struggle as the US competes with Brazil.
India’s July oilmeal exports rose to 381,301 tons, but soybean meal exports fell to 52,210 tons from 73,139 in June.
With these two weeks of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields, but that is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher which would affect the carryout.
Wheat is trading higher as well as futures become oversold on the technical side and may be carving out a bottom.
India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia for a massive purchase of 9 mmt of wheat which would be the largest grain deal ever between the two countries. Indian wheat stocks are 20% below the 10-year average.
A drought in Kazakhstan has led to the destruction on 170 hectares of cropland with much of that being dedicated to wheat.
The International Grain Council is estimating world ending wheat stocks at 261 mmt or 9.59 bb which is slightly less than the USDA’s estimate of 265.6 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning in response to the new 7-day forecast which is showing virtually no rain for the Corn Belt or Midwest and above normal temperatures.
December corn futures seem to have found support near the 4.80 level and are technically oversold. They may have found a temporary bottom.
While most of the Corn Belt received beneficial rains recently, soil moisture maps have shown that there are topsoil deficits in parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
Argentinian corn production is seen as maintained at 34 mmt, and 90% of the crop has been harvested.
Soybeans are higher this morning and are headed for a third consecutively higher close as weather forecasts stay hot and dry into pod fill. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
Technically, November soybeans appear to have put a bottom in and are hugging the 50-day moving average which is moving higher. There is a gap on the chart at 13.79 which may be a target.
With this two weeks of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields, but that is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher which would effect the carryout.
India’s July oilmeal exports rose to 381,301 tons, but soybean meal exports fell to 52,210 tons from 73,139 in June.
Wheat is trading higher this morning after 5 consecutively lower closes in Chicago wheat as markets look for a bottom. There was no news of attacks in the Black Sea last night.
India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia for a massive purchase of 9 mmt of wheat which would be the largest grain deal ever between the two countries. Indian wheat stocks are 20% below the 10-year average.
A drought in Kazakhstan has led to the destruction on 170 hectares of cropland with much of that being dedicated to wheat.
Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Technical buying and possible short covering on oversold conditions and a warm extended forecast led the corn market higher in today’s session following yesterday’s bullish reversal.
Hot and dry conditions which are expected for the balance of August provided underlying support to the soybean market that closed in the lower end of the day’s range after trading through the 50-day moving average and reversing.
Also supportive to soybeans was soybean oil which continued to climb higher on strong domestic biofuel demand and talk of increased veg oil imports from India. Soybean meal on the other hand, continued its slide lower, possibly due to increased crush rates leading to excess meal production.
Mediocre export sales, a higher U.S. dollar, and weaker Paris Milling wheat futures contributed to the lower close in the wheat complex, led by the K.C. contracts.
To see the current U.S. Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for September, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
Corn Action Plan Summary
No action is recommended for the 2023 corn crop. This year’s growing season has been marked by dry conditions and changing weather forecasts, which have swung prices nearly 150 cents from high to low. Though dry conditions remain, with a great amount of variability in crop conditions from region to region, it may not be until after harvest before we know the full effect this growing season had on yields. Just as Insider recently recommended selling half of the previously recommended DEC 580 puts to lock in gains in case the market turns higher, Insider will continue to monitor market conditions and may consider recommending selling the remaining DEC 580 puts if conditions warrant it. While many unknowns could still shock the market higher, seasonality and current trends suggest we may not see a shift to higher prices until after harvest.
No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn.In 2012, the best pricing opportunities for Dec 2013 corn were during the 2012 summer runup. Despite the significant yield losses to the 2012 crop, and the fear of running out of corn, the Dec 2013 contract peaked in the summer of 2012, and by Jan 2 of 2013, the price was already down about 12% from the high. We continue to watch the calendar for 2024 corn as this 2023 summer volatility could provide some additional opportunities to get some good early sales on the books in the event of a 2013 type repeat. Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to prior early sales levels between now and the beginning of September.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn.2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Corn futures saw additional corrective action on Thursday and December futures gained 4 ¼ cents. Prices are likely adding some slight weather premium with hotter and drier forecast going into next week, but some light technical buying occurred as price action was friendly most of the session.
The corn market remains oversold, but still slightly lower on the week. Friday’s close could be key to establishing a possible short-term trend change.
USDA released weekly export sales this morning. For last week the USDA reported an increase of 9.2 million bushels of corn export sales for the 2022-23 marketing year and an increase of 27.7 mb for 2023-24 marketing year. Both numbers fell within analysts’ expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 17.5 mb were below the 22.9 mb needed each week to achieve USDA’s export estimate of 1.625 bb in 2022-23.
Grain markets were limited by continuing strength in the U.S. dollar index. The dollar is trending higher, attempting to push through key resistance levels. The U.S. dollar index is trading at its highest level since July 6.
NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center released long range forecasts for the fall months. Weather models are overall looking non-threatening with rainfall and temperature forecast to stay relatively normal during the period.
Above: The market has been in retreat since late July and has traded through the July low 474 in the September contract, it also continues to show signs of being oversold. If bullish influences enter the market and turn prices higher, resistance above the market could be found between 495 – 516. Below the market, the next area of major support may be found near 415.
Soybeans
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans.This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from the changing weather forecasts, crop conditions, and export sales. We ended the month of July experiencing hot conditions with little rainfall and weak export sales. Since then, conditions have become more favorable, and export sales have picked up. While much of the crop remains in drought conditions, which can maintain upside potential, timely rains may come and push prices lower. Much like in 2012, when July was dry, and the pattern changed in August, when decent rain fell in parts of the western Corn Belt and IL, sending Nov ’12 soybeans down 20%. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.
No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Soybeans ended the day higher again today with primary support from gains in soybean oil while soybean meal closed lower. The hot and dry 8 to 14-day forecast has been supportive on concerns that yields may be negatively impacted.
Soybean oil prices are getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.
This morning, the USDA reported 3.4 mb of export sales for old crop soybeans which was down 42% from the prior 4-week average. 51.7 mb of new crop sales were reported, and shipments were 16 mb. 30 mb more of soybeans need to be shipped within the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimates.
Brazilian food and fuel processor Caramuru Alimentos has started selling soybean-based ethanol at one of its plants in Brazil. This would be one of the first companies to produce at scale and sell ethanol made from soy molasses.
Above: Since the end of July, the trend in the soybean market has been down with choppy trade, and has been showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices reverse higher. If nearby soybeans can break out of the range to the upside, resistance can be found near 1400 and again around 1450. If prices break to the downside, support below the market may be found between 1318 – 1300.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
All three US wheat futures classes posted losses in tandem with Paris milling wheat futures. The US Dollar Index continued the trend higher today, keeping pressure on wheat.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.2 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. While not a terrible number, it was not enough to get traders excited. Shipments are also behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb.
There is talk that Russia and India may be nearing an agreement on an import deal for wheat. However, India’s inflation came out at 7.4% (vs 4.8% in June), which could ultimately limit their import demand.
Consultancy group, APK-Inform, raised their estimate of the Ukraine 2023 grain harvest to 53.1 mmt, and includes 20.6 mmt of wheat. It is also believed that Ukraine will be able to export 12 mmt of wheat.
According to StoneX, Brazil’s 23/24 wheat crop could come in at 11.19 mmt, which is 2.3% lower than the July estimate. This could be due to lower planted acreage in Rio Grande Do Sul.
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
No new action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 660 level before considering any additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: The Chicago wheat market shows signs of additional short positions entering the market with open interest rising as prices decline. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which could be supportive if bullish news enters the market and prices turn higher. Key support remains below the market around 573, with resistance above the market between 658 – 684.
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with dry growing conditions and harvest delays, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your HRW wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher. If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season with continued dryness concerns in not only the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. As harvest begins, there typically isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest is complete, although, both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with a wet spring, late planting, and growing conditions that have been less than ideal, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. The K.C. wheat market is highly correlated to the Minneapolis wheat market and much more liquid, which makes it a better choice when employing options strategies for Spring Wheat. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your spring wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
Above: Since 7/25/23, the market has been in a down trend and is oversold. Currently, key support below the market lies near the May low of 769, with the next support level near the June ’21 low of 730. Above the market, nearby resistance could be found near 835 – 850.
Corn is trading slightly higher near midday, but prices remain near their lowest levels of the year despite the forecast for hot and dry conditions until next week.
Dryness is forecast all along the Corn Belt and Midwest over the next 7 days, but the heat will be most intense in the western Plains while the eastern Corn Belt should not experience the extreme heat as much.
Export sales were nothing to write home about with 9.2 mb reported for old crop corn, up 16% from the prior 4-week average and new crop sales at 27.7 mb. 17.5 mb of corn was shipped, and 51 mb more needs to be shipped in the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimate.
US ethanol stocks rose by 2.4% to 23.435 m bbl, but analysts were expecting 22.83. Plant production was 1.069 m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.035.
Soybeans are trading higher, while soybean meal continues its downward trend and soybean oil continues higher with demand for biofuels rising.
This morning, the USDA reported 3.4 mb of export sales for old crop soybeans which was down 42% from the prior 4-week average. 51.7 mb of new crop sales were reported, and shipments were 16 mb. 30 mb more of soybeans need to be shipped within the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimates.
Brazilian food and fuel processor Caramuru Alimentos has started selling soybean-based ethanol at one of its plants in Brazil.
Soybean oil prices are getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.
Wheat is trading lower but has backed off its earlier morning lows as trade ignores the concerns of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port cities.
Regarding the attacks in the Black Sea region, the markets seem to only react on the day that grain silos are destroyed, or agricultural infrastructure is destroyed. By the next day, markets are content to trend lower.
Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.
A container ship has left the port of Odesa in the Black Sea despite Russia’s threats to attack vessels after Ukraine announced their own humanitarian corridor to release the cargo ships that have been stuck.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
